INTEGRATED ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY PHASE CLASSIFICATION MAY 16/MAR 17 THE KINGDOM OF LESOTHO IPC analysis conducted from 24 to 30 May 2016 for all 10 districts of Lesotho based on primary data collected by LVAC and partners in May 2016 and secondary data collected from Jan. 2016 onwards. Projected analysis requires an update in October 2016. AGGREGATE NUMBERS FOR WORST PERIOD KEY FOOD INSECURITY OUTCOMES AS OF MAY 2016 – JULY TO OCTOBER 2016 – Despite current analysis corresponding to harvest/post-harvest Proportions of households and number of people in need of urgent period, 19% of households had poor food consumption, and 45% had support to protect their livelihoods and reduce food gaps and classified borderline food consumption. using IPC1: In Berea, Mafeteng, Mohale’s Hoek, Quthing and Thaba-Tseka, over Thaba-Tseka 40% (48,903 people) 20% of the rural households spent more than 75% of their cash in Maseru 25% (55,623 people) food purchase. In other districts the same expenditure pattern is Mafeteng 45% (67,204 people) experienced by 10-16% of rural households. Qacha’s Nek 45% (23,950 people) Generally, 13% of households engaged in crisis and emergency Leribe 35% (86,918 people) livelihood coping strategies, indicating that households reduced food Mohale’s Hoek 33% (50,245 people) consumption rather than depleting livelihood assets Quthing 43% (48,448 people) Global Acute Malnutrition was below 5% in all districts except in Mokhotlong 25% (23,625 people) Mohale’s Hoek, which had a GAM prevalence of 6.6%. Butha Buthe 20% (16,616 people) Berea 51% (88,725 people) Total Approx. 510,258 people (36%) 1The percentage of households is based on estimations and includes populationCurrent classified (May in – IPC Jun Phase 3 (“Crisis”) and IPC Phase 4 (“Emergency”). Projected (Jul – Sep 2016) 2016) 50,254 Projected (Oct 2016 – Feb 2017) Map Notes: 1 District classification based whether area has at least 20% of households in need of urgent assistance to protect livelihoods and decrease food consumption gaps Produced by the IPC Technical Working Group in Lesotho Although not a partner, the technical assistance of FEWS NET is acknowledged OVERVIEW OF SEVERITY OF CURRENT AND PROJECTED ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY The current situation (Apr-Jun 2016) reveals that eight districts out of ten, i.e. Mafeteng, Leribe, Berea, Qacha’s Nek, Quthing, Mokhotlong, Thaba-Tseka, and Butha Buthe are classified as Phase 2 ‘Stressed’. Two districts (Maseru and Mohale’s Hoek) are in Phase 3 ‘Crisis’. There is no district that is classified in Phase 4, although all districts have population ranging from 4 to 15) that are thought to be facing an emergency food insecurity situation (Phase 4). All in all 44% of the total rural population are expected to be in Phase 1 (‘No/Minimal Acute Food Insecurity’), 34% in Phase 2 (‘Stressed’), 13% in Phase 3 (‘Crisis’), and 8% in Phase 4 (‘Emergency’). With regard to the projected situations, the seasonal calendar indicates that the first projection period (July to October) is a post-harvest period (with harvest usually ending in May-June), whereas the period from November to February typically correspond to the lean season, although harvesting of green maize starts already in January in many districts. This year, due to negligible production of staple food items, the lean season is expected to start earlier, and to be more severe than usually. However, different social safety net programmes and Government food price subsidies are likely to alleviate the severity of the lean season. Nevertheless, prices are expected to remain high, likely affecting poor population with no sufficient income to cover their basic needs, particularly in the absence of assistance. The two projection periods are discussed below in more detail: First projection from July to October 2016: this is typically a post-harvest period when households have some food stock from their own production, and food prices are relatively stable with slight increases towards the end of the period. This year, however, very few if any households have stocks due to very poor harvest. This means that households become market dependent sooner than usually during the projection period. Food prices are expected to be higher than average and increasing due to lack of domestic production, higher demand, and the dependence on imports from South Africa. Prices, even with Government subsidies, are expected to increase by 15-25% compared to average over the projection period in all districts. In Mokhotlong, however, prices are expected to dramatically increase by up to 70%. In total, it is estimated that between 20 and 31% of the rural population will experience No or Minimal acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 1), 33% will be in Phase 2 (‘Stressed’), 26% in Phase 3 (‘Crisis’), and 11% in Phase 4 (‘Emergency’). The worst affected households, classified Phases 3 and 4, are typically the poor and very poor, who lack sufficient income to purchase food at higher food prices, as well as those who have already depleted or will deplete their main livelihood assets, such as livestock, in order to cover their food and non-food needs. All the districts are expected to be in Phase 3 ‘Crisis’ in the projection period, with typically up to a maximum of 15% of the population in Phase 4 ‘ Emergency’ by district. Second projection from November 2016 to March 2017: Rainfall in the post-harvest period is typically very low, condition confirmed by rainfall forecast for 2016. Since water levels are already low due to poor rainfall, it is likely that the wheat harvest taking place early in the second projection period will be lower than usual. The peak of the lean season, normally taking place from December to February, is expected to manifest earlier (December) and more severely than usual due to depleted stocks, low winter wheat harvest and high food prices. Despite these conditions, it is still expected that food security situation is somewhat better compared to the first projection period. This is due to the fact that many households are expected to be able to increase their income by engaging in casual labour, given that the expected ‘La Nina’ phenomenon could bring ample rains to the county starting in October, thus increasing demand for agricultural labour. In the peak of the lean season, this source of income is likely to facilitate households’ access to food. In addition, social safety net programmes and food subsidies, are expected to lessen the impact of the lean season. In general, 46% of the rural population is expected to remain in IPC Phase 1, 29% will be in Phase 2 ‘Stressed’, 16% in Phase 3 ‘Crisis’, and the remaining 8% will be in Phase 4 ‘Emergency’. All the districts, except Leribe and Mokhotlong, will remain in Phase 3 ‘Crisis’ over the second projection period, with between 5 and 13% of rural population in Phase 4. ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY CONDITIONS • Regarding rainfall, it has been estimated by USGS FEWS NET that the rainy season from September 2015 to May 2016 was one of the lowest recorded: rainfall was only around one half to two thirds (by month) of average between 2001 and 2010.. • In terms of food availability, Lesotho typically produces only around 30% of its annual cereal requirements. As a result, availability is typically a function of limited domestic production and cereal (and other food item) imports from South Africa. Production in Lesotho suffered to a large extent from poor rainfall and dry spells, and production is almost negligent compared to normal conditions. It is estimated that maize production decreased by 89%, wheat by 96%, and sorghum by 93% in 2016 compared to the reference year of 2009. This large decrease in production means an even higher dependence on cereal imports from South Africa to maintain food availability in Lesotho. However, since production in South Africa has also been impacted by the El Nino conditions, cereal availability in the country is not at its typical level and this is reflected in food prices. However, it is expected that food will continue to be available in Lesotho markets, albeit at higher prices. Animal herd size has decreased over the years: there has been a decrease of 25% in cattle and 9% in sheep and goats mainly due to recurrent droughts, animal thefts, and disease epidemics between 2010 and 2015. (And this year?) • Food access is mainly a function of the economic capacity of households to purchase food on market, given own production usually being insufficient to cover households needs. Markets are well integrated and road network is relatively good, facilitating physical food access and flow of goods from South Africa to markets in different parts of the country. There are also typically no problems with social access of households. The main problem is financial access, which is constrained in many ways: (1) high food prices, (2) limited income, and (3) lack of household stocks. Latest available price information form March 2016 shows that maize prices were typically 20-35% higher than previous year, and with very low domestic production it is expected that prices will continue to rise. Income from typical sources such as domestic work (washing, smearing of walls), gifts and remittances, and self-employment has decreased substantially (especially in Butha- Buthe, Berea, Qacha’s Nek, Quthing and Tsaba-Tseka), whereas income from cash for work programmes has increased between 25 and 80% in practically all the districts, indicating increased dependence on social safety net programmes. In January, in around half of the districts, 17-50% of households still had some food stocks, but it is expected that they have depleted them by this period, leaving households dependent on market for food provisioning.