Yonge North Subway Extension Initial Business Case Yonge North Subway Extension Initial Business Case Contents Executive Summary 8 Scope 8 Method of Analysis 11 Optimizing Benefits 12 Managing Costs: Delivering an effective and affordable project 12 Options for Analysis 13 Findings 15 Recommendation 20 1 Introduction 21 Initial Business Case Scope and Objectives 22 Background 22 Extending the Reach of Line 1 24 Business Case Overview 26 2 Problem Statement 27 Introduction 28 Case for Change 28 Problem and Opportunity Statement 28 Business as Usual 30 Strategic Value 32 Strategic Outcomes 33 Strong Connections 33 iv Complete Travel Experiences 33 Sustainable and Healthy Communities 33 Strategic Objectives 34 3 Investment Options 35 Introduction 36 Options Development 36 Creating a Bridge: Better Serving Richmond Hill Centre and Langstaff Gateway through Station Placement 37 Options Overview 39 Introduction 39 1. Alternatives Alignment Analysis 40 2. Stations Analysis 42 Business as Usual 43 Elements Common to All Options 43 Option 1 44 Option 2 45 Option 3 46 Technology 47 Summary of Assumptions Used for Analysis and Travel Demand Modelling 47 4 Strategic Case 49 Introduction 50 OUTCOME 1: STRONG CONNECTIONS 51 BENEFIT 1: Improve Access to Transit 52 BENEFIT 2: Increase Access to Economic Opportunities 62 BENEFIT 3: Support Planned Development along the YNSE 69 OUTCOME 2: COMPLETE TRAVEL EXPERIENCES 89 BENEFIT 4: Improve Travel Time 90 v BENEFIT 5: Improve Reliability 97 BENEFIT 6: Build an Integrated Transportation Network 98 OUTCOME 3: SUSTAINABLE AND HEALTHY COMMUNITIES 104 BENEFIT 7: Move People with Less Energy and Pollution 105 BENEFIT 8: Improve Quality of Life and Public Health 107 Strategic Case Summary 109 5 Economic Case 115 Introduction and Assumptions 116 Modelling Assumptions 118 Costs 118 User Impacts 121 External Impacts 122 Economic Case Summary 123 Jobs Supported and GDP Impacts 124 Economic Parameters Sensitivity Tests 124 6 Financial Case 126 Introduction 127 Capital Costs 127 Operating and Maintenance Costs 130 Revenue Impacts 131 Funding Sources 131 Capital Costs 131 Operating Costs 131 Financial Case Summary 132 7 Deliverability and Operations Case 133 Introduction 134 vi Project Schedule 134 Operating Concept 135 Terminal Operations 135 Project Delivery 136 Status of Design 136 Project and Program Dependencies 137 Other Project Interfaces 137 Environmental Assessment 139 Procurement and Delivery 140 Constructability 141 Other YNSE Project Elements 143 Protection for Future Extension of the Line 144 Appendix 1 Preliminary Stations Analysis 145 Background 146 Further considerations 147 Neighbourhood Stations Analysis 148 Richmond Hill Centre/Langstaff Gateway Stations Analysis 150 Preliminary Findings 152 Neighbourhood Stations Analysis 152 Richmond Hill Centre/Langstaff Gateway Stations Analysis 152 vii YONGE NORTH SUBWAY EXTENSION INITIAL BUSINESS CASE Executive Summary Scope Metrolinx and Infrastructure Ontario were provided a letter of direction outlining a responsibility for delivering an extension to the Line 1 Yonge-University Subway (Line 1) from Finch Station to a terminus at Richmond Hill Centre. The extension crosses from the City of Toronto into York Region passing along the boundary of Markham and Vaughan before connecting to Richmond Hill. It is a project that will strengthen regional transit systems as it delivers travel time savings for existing and future transit riders. This Initial Business Case evaluates the performance of different iterations of a YNSE, including the EA- approved version against a Business as Usual (BAU) scenario as the basis for an investment decision. The BAU assumes that “In Delivery” projects from the 2041 Regional Transportation Plan are in service, as modified by Ontario’s Transit Plan1, and that reasonable improvements to existing surface transit as well as signaling improvements to Line 1 are delivered. The alternatives are meant to be representative and allow for consistent analysis. For reference, see Figure 1 and Table 1, which provide a summary of the options considered. 1 Ontario Government, 2019 8 YONGE NORTH SUBWAY EXTENSION INITIAL BUSINESS CASE Figure 1: Options under consideration in the YNSE Initial Business Case 9 YONGE NORTH SUBWAY EXTENSION INITIAL BUSINESS CASE Table 1: Summary of options under consideration in the YNSE Initial Business Case Primary Complementary Stations in Model’s Vertical Neighbourhood Option Length* Tunneling Method Stations/Transit Urban Core Representative Alignment Stations Hubs Station Alignment ** • Cummer • Cummer • Twin bore • Steeles • Steeles • Clark Option 1 ~7.57 km Tunnel (large single bore Langstaff • Clark • RHC • Royal also feasible) • Langstaff Orchard • RHC • Cummer • Cummer • Steeles • Steeles • Only large single High Tech • Clark Option 2 ~7.65 km Tunnel • Bridge-West • Clark bore feasible (underground) • Royal (underground) • Bridge- West Orchard (underground) • Cummer • Cummer Tunnel + • Steeles • Steeles • Only twin bore High Tech (at- • Clark Option 3 ~8.00 km • Bridge-Centre • Clark At Grade feasible grade) • Royal (at-grade) • Bridge-Centre Orchard (at-grade) * From north of Finch tail track to north end of High Tech Station ** Three Alternative Alignments have been evaluated in this IBC. A representative of each alignment was chosen for the modelling purposes and comparative analysis. These elements identified for these alignments do not represent a chosen scope. 10 YONGE NORTH SUBWAY EXTENSION INITIAL BUSINESS CASE Method of Analysis A Business Case is a comprehensive collection of evidence and analysis that sets out the rationale for why an investment should be implemented to solve a problem or address an opportunity. Business cases are required by Metrolinx’s Capital Projects Approval Policy for all capital infrastructure investments. The Yonge North Subway Extension (YNSE) Initial Business Case (IBC) follows the methodology from the Metrolinx Business Case Guidance2. The YNSE IBC falls under the Options Analysis stage of Metrolinx’s Project Lifecycle (see page 26), and compares the YNSE against a number of alternative configurations (alignment and station options) as well as a Business as Usual scenario. As with all Metrolinx Business Cases, the YNSE IBC is structured around four cases: • The Strategic Case, which determines the value of addressing a problem or opportunity based on regional development goals, plans and policies. • The Economic Case, which uses standard economic analysis to detail benefits and costs of the options to individuals and society as a whole, in economic terms. • The Financial Case, which assesses the overall financial impact of the options, its funding arrangements and technical accounting issues and financial value for money. • The Deliverability and Operations Case, which considers procurement strategies, operating plans and the risks associated with deliverability and operations. 2 http://www.metrolinx.com/en/regionalplanning/projectevaluation/benefitscases/benefits_case_analYNSEs.aspx 11 YONGE NORTH SUBWAY EXTENSION INITIAL BUSINESS CASE Optimizing Benefits This IBC puts a particular focus on the emerging Richmond Hill Centre and Langstaff communities. While the YNSE has previously been imagined terminating just north of Highway 7, it was identified by Metrolinx as an area where refinement could enhance project benefits and reduce capital costs. The IBC will present some alternative alignment options that specifically address the challenges and opportunities of serving these areas and their future residents and employees. Managing Costs: Delivering an effective and affordable project Metrolinx is committed to delivering a YNSE that offers an optimized program within the available funding envelope. To undertake this responsibility Metrolinx has undertaken a comprehensive examination of managing costs on the project. The YNSE project has been in the planning stage since initiation of the Transit Project Assessment Process in 2007. Through this period the initial infrastructure project scope remained relatively constant while the capital cost estimate grew to more than $9.0 billion at the time of the upload in summer 2019. Through the IBC process Metrolinx completed a comprehensive evaluation worked to optimize project benefits while managing the capital cost downward. Three feasible alignment options were developed that achieve the overall project objectives albeit with varying capital costs, benefits and deliverability considerations. Each option identified stations at Steeles and Richmond Hill Centre/Bridge as Primary Stations fundamental to achieving project benefits, and Langstaff/High Tech as Complementary Urban Core Station that are likely to be included due to their strong potential to unlock urban growth. Each option accommodates stations at Cummer, Clark and Royal Orchard as Neighbourhood Stations (subject to funding being made available). Careful consideration of the three alignment options is required as none of them are able to deliver the envisioned subway extension with at least five new stations within the announced $5.6 billion infrastructure budget (see Table 37 for infrastructure costs presented in the same format as the budget). Option 3, although having a more complex deliverability case, does provide significant benefits and the lowest cost for the minimum project scope, including the two Primary Stations at Steeles, and Bridge (at- grade) and likely one Urban Core Station at High Tech (at-grade) with sufficient budget to allow one Neighbourhood