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GCF Project Document Template 1 | P a g e 2 | P a g e 3 | P a g e I. TABLE OF CONTENTS I. Table of Contents ............................................................................................................................................... 4 II. Development Challenge ..................................................................................................................................... 5 Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerabilities ............................................................................................................. 5 Climate Change Rainfall Impacts On Water Resources and Water Supply ............................................................... 6 III. Strategy .............................................................................................................................................................. 9 IV. Results and Partnerships.................................................................................................................................. 18 V. Project Management ....................................................................................................................................... 37 VI. Project Results Framework .............................................................................................................................. 44 VII. Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) Plan ........................................................................................................... 52 VIII. Governance and Management Arrangements ................................................................................................ 58 IX. Financial Planning and Management ............................................................................................................... 69 X. Total Budget and Work Plan ............................................................................................................................ 77 XI. Legal Context ................................................................................................................................................... 96 XII. Risk Management ............................................................................................................................................ 96 XIII. Mandatory Annexes ......................................................................................................................................... 98 Annex A: GCF Funding Activity Agreement and Notice of Effectiveness (To be included when received from GCF Sec) .......................................................................................................................................................... 99 Annex B: GCF Board approved GCF Funding Proposal ................................................................................ 99 Annex C: Letter of agreement between the Implementing Partner and Responsible Parties (To be provided) ................................................................................................................................................................ 99 Annex D: Letters of co-financing ...................................................................................................................... 100 Annex E: Timetable of project implementation............................................................................................... 106 Annex F: Procurement plan .............................................................................................................................. 110 Annex G: Terms of References for Project Board and Project Team ......................................................... 120 Annex H: UNDP Social and Environmental and Safeguards screening procedure (SESP) and Environmental and Social Management Plan or Framework (ESMP or ESMF) as relevant .................. 150 Annex I: Stakeholder Engagement Plan ......................................................................................................... 150 Annex J: Gender Analysis and Action Plan .................................................................................................... 151 Annex K: UNDP Risk Log (To be provided) ................................................................................................... 171 Annex L: LOA with the government in case DPCs are applied ................................................................... 171 Annex M: Capacity Assessment including HACT micro assessment ......................................................... 171 Annex N: UNDP Project Quality Assurance Report (to be completed in UNDP online corporate planning system, does not need to be attached as separate document) (to be provided) ...................................... 171 4 | P a g e II. DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGE Climate change predictions for Comoros include an increase in rainfall variability, lengthening of droughts and increasing frequency and intensity of storm floods and resulting erosion. The main island of Grand Comore has no surface water, requiring coastal towns to exploit marginally fresh groundwater resources, whilst the rural upland communities, making up 50% of the island’s population, have to rely solely on rainwater harvesting. On the two more remote and poorer islands of Anjouan and Moheli there are no proven groundwater resources and therefore are completely reliant on the seasonally variable streams. One of the most urgent needs in Comoros, as stated by the NAPA, is to build the resilience of their water supply to the impacts of climate change. More specifically Comoros needs to increase the resilience of its limited water resources and watersheds, protect its water supply infrastructure and strengthen the adaptation capacity of its institutions and communities to plan and operate in increasing climatic extremes. Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerabilities Climate Change Projections for Comoros The IPCC AR51 indicates that for the southern Indian Ocean (including the Comoros Islands) there will be: ● a decline in rainfall - that will cause a reduction in surface water flows and groundwater recharge and an increase in pollution due to reduced dilution potential; ● an increase in mean temperatures - that will reduce water supplies via evapotranspiration and increase water demand; ● continued sea level rise that will contribute to further saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers; and ● an increase in the frequency and intensity of natural hazards such as cyclones, landslides and droughts. The UNDP Climate Change Country Profile for Comoros2 developed by the University of Oxford used refined Global Climate Models to evaluate climate change predictions for the country. This work identified up to 47% reduction in rainfall during the dry season by 2090, with up to a 45% increase in rainfall during the wet season and a further 14% increase of rainfall in extreme events. This does not include the potential increase in cyclone activity – Comoros is in the Indian Ocean cyclone path – which may not be captured by GCM projections. This work also identified a rise in sea levels of up to 0.56m by 2090. Impact of Climate Change on Rainfall in Comoros A ranking analysis using monthly data has revealed a clear downward trend of annual rainfall over the last 60 years, with the four driest years in the last 60 years to have been 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2013, with the most extreme driest (1%) periods to all be in the last 1-2 decades. This is clear evidence of an increasing trend of extended low rainfall periods. The daily rainfall analysis revealed the longest consecutive sequence of dry days (<1mm/d) currently averages 34 days per year across the country, with an increased frequency of the occurrence of 10 consecutive dry days over the last decade alone. 1 Commission de L’Ocean Indien. 2012. Synthese des travaux du projet Acclimate. 2 Comoros UNDP Country Profile. 2006. University of Oxford. 5 | P a g e The above analysis was repeated for Effective Dry Days i.e. when rainfall minus evapotranspiration is less than 0 mm/d, which is a more useful indicator for agriculture. In this analysis the longest consecutive effective dry period in the country averaged across the three islands was 92 days – almost 3 months. Daily rainfall analysis also revealed maximum daily rainfall to have exceeded more than 100mm/d in 8 of the last 9 years, with the most extreme rainfall event on record being in April 2012 (718 mm) where more than 1, 942mm fell over 6 days. When considered alongside GCM predictions of 100% increases in wet season monthly rainfall, this demonstrates an increasing likelihood of extreme flood events. Climate Change Rainfall Impacts On Water Resources and Water Supply Impact of Reduced Rainfall on Rainwater Harvesting Supply Security (primarily Grand Comore) More than 50% of the population in Grand Comore currently relies on rainwater harvesting. Rainwater harvesting analysis3 of average household rainwater tanks4 shows they currently go dry for as long as 35 days (using a government rural demand estimate 5 of 35 lpd for a household of 8 persons), although the analysis shows this can be reduced to 15 days with household rainwater rationing to 20 lpd, if adequate drought forecasting was available. However, the predicted increase in the length of dry periods by up to 48 days due to climate change will therefore have catastrophic impacts on rural community water supplies right across Grand Comore, due to the island wide failure of the rainwater harvesting systems. Impact of Reduced Rainfall on Surface
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