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Study of Climate Change in Bogota, Using Colombia and Global Temperature Data

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Study of Climate Change in Bogota, Using Colombia and Global Temperature Data International Journal of Applied Engineering Research ISSN 0973-4562 Volume 13, Number 13 (2018) pp. 11225-11230 © Research India Publications. http://www.ripublication.com Study of Climate Change in Bogota, using Colombia and Global Temperature Data A. J. Moreno Department of Electronics Engineering, Distrital Fco Jose de Caldas University Bogotá, Colombia. Cesar A. Perdomo Associated Professor, Department of Electronics Engineering, Distrital Fco Jose de Caldas University Bogotá, Colombia. Oscar F. Avilés S Titular Professor, Department of Mechatronics Engineering, Militar Nueva Granada University Bogotá, Colombia. Abstract DATA SET USED This document presents the analysis of climate change in The data set used contains average temperature data associated Bogotá, using data from Colombia, global and neighboring with climate change worldwide. The averaging process countries using the data facilitated by the Berkeley project, 2 generates a variety of output data including a set of cross- techniques will be used for this. One is neural networks and linked temperature fields, these data are collected by the fuzzy systems to classify and predict temperature changes and Berkeley Earth project, the data set includes global evidence the phenomenon of global warming in Bogotá, temperature data by cities and countries, the data set Contains presents specific case studies on climate change and its information from the year 1850 to 2013 and contains an applications in different fields, as a conclusion is presented the average temperature value per month [1]. reasons for the only temperature prediction performed for Bogotá and not a classification exercise. PROBLEM APPROACH Keywords: Climate change, fuzzy, neural network, nntool, prediction. In this project, we intend to classify and predict the temperature of different cities of Colombia and neighboring countries with Colombia based on algorithms neural networks INTRODUCTION and diffuse systems, as well as predict the temperature and evidence the phenomenon of global warming for the different Climate change is one of the biggest problems facing mankind cities that are selected today and although many studies prove their existence, several communities worldwide says it is just a myth. These people are generally related to the energy sector and insist that taking THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK action to prevent or combat it means losing time and, more importantly, money. Due to this situation the Berkeley Earth Nowadays, the scientific evidence of climate change is institute decided to release a data set on the temperature in the indisputable, according to the IPCC research and conclusions planet from the middle of the XIX century until the end of the by its acronym in English Intergovernmental Panel on Climate year 2013. According to the institute, its objective is that data Change, leading international organization on the subjects scientists of the world can draw their own conclusions about related to the climatic change. Or as mentioned by the US the supposed climate change that the earth is suffering mainly Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), with the slogan due to human intervention. "Climate change is happening.". This document takes as basis for the study presented the data Climate change is defined as a stable and durable change in offered by the Berkeley Earth Institute to make an analysis on the distribution of climate patterns over periods of time the climatic change in the main cities of Colombia and ranging from decades to millions of years. It could be a change bordering countries. in the average climatic conditions or the distribution of events around that average (for example more or less extreme climatic events). Climate change can be limited to a specific region, as it can cover the entire land area. 11225 International Journal of Applied Engineering Research ISSN 0973-4562 Volume 13, Number 13 (2018) pp. 11225-11230 © Research India Publications. http://www.ripublication.com calculate the impact of each input parameter of the neural network on the total emission. From the experimental results, it is possible to argue that oil has the greatest impact on emissions. According to the analysis, it is necessary to reduce the use of natural gas by 40%, oil consumption by 60%, electricity by 20%, and avoid solid fuels, in order to achieve the objectives of the Protocol of Kyoto. Vitoantonio [2]. The proposed CO2 estimation model can be used to test the effectiveness of the energy policies adopted by each country in order to achieve the Kyoto targets. Figure 1. Concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide Another work on climate change but using fuzzy systems is to (CO2). quantify the impacts of climate change on the reproductive processes of fishes in the Northeast Pacific Ocean. The major changes in marine ecosystems from global climate change In the scientific journals, "global warming" refers to changes pose enormous challenges to those responsible for the or increases in surface temperatures, while "climate change" assessment and management of fishery resources. Successful includes global warming and all other aspects that are implementation of policies that allow sustainable fishing, influenced by an increase in greenhouse gases. especially during periods of climate change, usually requires The evidence is based on observations of increases in air and a good understanding of the relationships between player ocean temperatures, melting of ice and glaciers around the numbers and subsequent recruitment. Non-traditional world and rising sea levels worldwide and other clear signs of analytical techniques, including artificial intelligence (AI) change. methodologies, offer significant advantages over traditional techniques in the analysis of these relationships, and can It has been determined that the increase in global temperature therefore improve our understanding of how climate change should be limited to 2 ° C to avoid irreversible damage to the can affect fish abundance. [3] planet and subsequent disastrous effects on human society. In order to avoid this irreversible change and its effects, Fuzzy logic is applied to several time-series datasets of fish greenhouse gas emissions should reach their peak in 2015 and reproductive processes. Using fuzzy logic, we incorporate progressively decrease thereafter until reaching a 50% environmental changes into our analysis and thus model the reduction by 2050. uncertain and ill-defined impacts of environmental regimes. Unlike traditional approaches, fuzzy logic uses a continuous membership function that provides a rational basis for STATE OF ART categorizing data. Based on the research results are obtained that seek to order fishing more efficiently. [3]. Reviewing the literature there are several studies related to climate change, with statistics and data from Italy is analyzed, Studies are being carried out in different parts of the world investigated and simulated the possible relationship between related to climate change, just mentioned are only 2 cases CO2 emissions of carbon dioxide and variables taken from the using the methodologies that are intended to be used in this Italian national institute of statistics, the application that uses article for the analysis of climate change in Colombia. [4], [5], Artificial intelligence, presents the possibility of having a [6], [7], [8], [9] model of provision to study the temperature of the earth and its constant increase, finding problems related to the environment and the world economy. [2] DATA ANALYSIS USED The proposed neural network is EBP, which can be learned Data Distribution: from past experiences and used to estimate CO2 values in the Analysis of the data used one of the characteristics that are past, present and future, variables were chosen based on the identified when analyzing temperatures is the difference in the relationship with solid fuels, petroleum, natural gas distribution of the world data and the distribution of Colombia consumptions Electricity and economic variables such as the or Bogotá. While Colombia and Bogotá present a Gaussian gross domestic product of Italy and the resident population. distribution in their histogram, the world does not present an The impact of CO2 emissions related to natural gas, oil, solid ordinary distribution. This can be seen in Figures 2 and 3. fuels and electricity was also studied, taking into account the weighted average of aggregate consumption in macro- Figure 2 shows that the average temperature in Bogotá for categories. [2]. approximately 160 years is 13 ° centigrade and that on average there has been an average temperature below 11 ° C or above This model allows to perform a sensitivity analysis in order to 15 ° C. 11226 International Journal of Applied Engineering Research ISSN 0973-4562 Volume 13, Number 13 (2018) pp. 11225-11230 © Research India Publications. http://www.ripublication.com temperature. This can be confirmed by the scatter plot in Figure 4 and the correlation values in Table 1. Table 1. Correlation between the average temperature of Colombia and some cities of the country. Bogotá Medellín Cartagena Tunja Villavicencio 0.8461 0.8179 0.1628 0.9461 0.8523 Figure 2. Histogram of the average monthly temperature (° C) in Bogotá from 1851 to 2013. Figure 3 shows that, unlike Colombia and Bogota, the Earth does not have a well-defined average temperature, but it has a more uniform distribution between 13 ° and 17 ° with peaks at 13.5 ° and 16.5 °. Figure 4. Scatter diagram between the Temperature of Colombia
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