0522 1140 2018 Experiences in Pacific Islands with Understanding
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A Climatology of Tropical Cyclone Size in the Western North Pacific Using an Alternative Metric Thomas B
Florida State University Libraries Electronic Theses, Treatises and Dissertations The Graduate School 2017 A Climatology of Tropical Cyclone Size in the Western North Pacific Using an Alternative Metric Thomas B. (Thomas Brian) McKenzie III Follow this and additional works at the DigiNole: FSU's Digital Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected] FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY COLLEGE OF ARTS AND SCIENCES A CLIMATOLOGY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE SIZE IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC USING AN ALTERNATIVE METRIC By THOMAS B. MCKENZIE III A Thesis submitted to the Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science 2017 Copyright © 2017 Thomas B. McKenzie III. All Rights Reserved. Thomas B. McKenzie III defended this thesis on March 23, 2017. The members of the supervisory committee were: Robert E. Hart Professor Directing Thesis Vasubandhu Misra Committee Member Jeffrey M. Chagnon Committee Member The Graduate School has verified and approved the above-named committee members, and certifies that the thesis has been approved in accordance with university requirements. ii To Mom and Dad, for all that you’ve done for me. iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I extend my sincere appreciation to Dr. Robert E. Hart for his mentorship and guidance as my graduate advisor, as well as for initially enlisting me as his graduate student. It was a true honor working under his supervision. I would also like to thank my committee members, Dr. Vasubandhu Misra and Dr. Jeffrey L. Chagnon, for their collaboration and as representatives of the thesis process. Additionally, I thank the Civilian Institution Programs at the Air Force Institute of Technology for the opportunity to earn my Master of Science degree at Florida State University, and to the USAF’s 17th Operational Weather Squadron at Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam, HI for sponsoring my graduate program and providing helpful feedback on the research. -
Impact Assessment of Coastal Hazards Due to Typhoons in the Marshall Islands
Impact assessment of coastal hazards due to typhoons in the Marshall Islands Kees Nederhoff1, Alessio Giardino1 1 Deltares, Unit Marine and Coastal Systems, The Netherlands Keywords: 1. Abstract Climate change and sea level rise are a global threat to coastal areas and, in particular, to small island states. Future projections indicate that sea levels are expected to rise in the next century at different rates in multiple regions around the world. On top of that, the intensity and frequency of extreme events such as typhoons may vary. In this study, the impacts in terms of flooding of different typhoon conditions are assessed in the present day conditions as well as accounting for climate change effects. In particular, the assessment is carried out for the island of Ebeye, located on Kwajalein Atoll (Republic of Marshall Islands). The results presented herein show that coastal engineering experiences at traditional coasts cannot be applied one-on-one to small islands states in the Pacific, because the relevant hydrodynamic processes offshore and on the reef are fundamentally different. These processes can be examined using a modeling approach combining parametric wind models, as well as process-based models such as Delft3D and XBeach. The model results suggest that offshore extreme wave and storm surge levels may increase by up to 6-8% as a result of higher typhoon winds. Nevertheless, the projected sea level rise is by far the dominant process in relation to increase in flooding levels, accounting for about 80% of the total increase in flooding impacts. 2. Introduction Typhoons are among some of the nature's most powerful and destructive phenomena. -
FEMA Disaster Cost-Shares: Evolution and Analysis
FEMA Disaster Cost-Shares: Evolution and Analysis Francis X. McCarthy Analyst in Emergency Management Policy March 9, 2010 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov R41101 CRS Report for Congress Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress FEMA Disaster Cost-Shares: Evolution and Analysis Summary The Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act (The Stafford Act, P.L. 93- 288) contains discretion for the President to adjust cost-shares for the Public Assistance (PA) program, Sections 406 and 407 of the act, that provides assistance to states, local governments and non-profit organizations for debris removal and rebuilding of the public and non-profit infrastructure. The language of the Stafford Act defining cost-shares for the repair, restoration, and replacement of damaged facilities provides that the federal share “shall be not less than 75 percent.” These provisions have been in effect for over 20 years. While the authority to adjust the cost-share is long standing, the history of FEMA’s administrative adjustments and Congress’ legislative actions in this area, are of a more recent vintage. In all, there have been 222 cost-share adjustments of varying sizes and lengths of time. In 1998 FEMA promulgated, in regulation, a more consistent and open approach to cost-share adjustments. The overwhelming majority of these actions have been based on that regulatory authority and carried out by the executive branch through administrative actions. However, since 1997, and particularly in the wake of the difficult issues caused by the Gulf Coast storms of 2005, Congress has begun to exercise its authority to adjust cost-shares. -
Is the USAF Flying Force Large Enough? Assessing Capacity Demands in Four Alternative Futures
C O R P O R A T I O N Is the USAF Flying Force Large Enough? Assessing Capacity Demands in Four Alternative Futures Alan J. Vick, Paul Dreyer, John Speed Meyers For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2500 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0072-7 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2018 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface The 1997 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) directed the Department of Defense to conduct a systematic review of U.S. -
Recovery Plan for Serianthes Nelsonii
- K As the Nation’s principal conservation agency, the Department of the Interior has responsibility for most of our nationally owned public lands and natural resources. This includes fostering the wisest use ofour landand water resources, protecting our fish and wildlife, preserving the environmental and cultural values of our national parks and historical places, and providingfor the enjoyment of lifethrough outdoor recreation. The Department assesses ourenergy and mineral resourcesand worksto assure that theirdevelopment is in the best interests ofall our people. The Department also has a major responsibility for American Indian reservation communities and for people who live in island Territories under US. administration. A RECOVERY PLAN FOR SERIANTHES NELSONII Region 1 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Portland, Oregon Approved: Regional Director, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Date: THIS IS THE COMPLETED RECOVERY PLAN FOR SERIANTHES NELSONTI (FABACEAE). IT DELINEATES REASONABLE ACTIONS THAT ARE BELIEVED TO BE REQUIRED TO RECOVER AND/OR PROTECT THE SPECIES. OBJECTIVES WILL BE ATTAINED AND ANY NECESSARY FUNDS MADE AVAILABLE SUBJECT TO BUDGETARY AND OTHER CONSTRAINTS AFFECTING THE PARTIES INVOLVED, AS WELL AS THE NEED TO ADDRESS OTHER PRIORITIES. THIS RECOVERY PLAN DOES NOT NECESSARILY REPRESENT OFFICIAL POSITIONS OF OR APPROVALS OF THE COOPERATING AGENCIES, AND IT DOES NOT NECESSARILY REPRESENT THE VIEWS OF ALL INDIVIDUALS WHO PLAYED A ROLE IN PREPARING THE PLAN. IT IS SUBJECT TO MODIFICATION AS DICTATED BY NEW FINDINGS, CHANGES IN SPECIES STATUS, AND COMPLETION OF TASKS DESCRIBED IN THE PLAN. Literature Citation: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 1993 Recovery Plan for Serianthes nelsonii. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Portland, OR. -
Pacific ENSO Update Quarter 4, 2015
Pacific ENSO Update Page 1 Quarter 4, 2015 Vol. 21, No. 4 ISSUED: November 13, 2015 Providing Information on Climate Variability in the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands for the Past 20 Years. http://www.prh.noaa.gov/peac CURRENT CONDITIONS The 2015 El Niño event has become strong, rivaling the strong El Niño events of 1982-83 and 1997-98. During the first half of 2015, many of the atmospheric effects of the current El Niño event were already exhibiting substantial deviations from average conditions. These included noteworthy extremes of rainfall and an abundance of early-season tropical cyclones. Early oceanic responses portending strong El Niño included a rapid oceanic surface and sub-surface warming and a dramatic lowering of the sea level across much of Micronesia. Oceanic indices used to diagnose El Niño, such as the SST anomaly in the Nino 3.4 region, reach their peak long after the atmosphere begins to exhibit wild weather patterns typical of El Niño onset. Whereas wild weather patterns (e.g., extreme rains and early season typhoons) arrive in the first half of the El Niño year, the oceanic response to El Niño peaks late in the El Niño year (around December). Through mid-October, the whole North Pacific Basin has seen a very high number of tropical cyclones (see the tropical cyclone discussion), with Hawaii and most of the islands of Micronesia experiencing multiple threats and various effects from the passages of these cyclones. During the 3rd Quarter, the island of Saipan in the CNMI was impacted by two tropical cyclones: (1) very intense Typhoon Soudelor in early August; and (2) a lesser storm (Tropical Storm Champi) in mid-October (see the Saipan LVS for more details). -
Responses Analysis.Frm
CIM D0008414.A3/1Rev May 2005 For the Record: All U.S. Forces’ Responses to Situations, 1970-2000 (with additions covering 2000-2003) W. Eugene Cobble H. H. Gaffney Dmitry Gorenburg The Center for Strate ic Studies is a division of The CNA Corporation (CNAC). The Center combines, in one organizationa entity, analyses of security policy, regional analyses, studies of political-military issues, and strategic Yand force assessment work. Such a center allows CNAC to join the global community of centers for strategic studies and share perspectives on major security issues that affect nations. The Center for Strategic Studies is dedicated to providing expertise in work that considers a full range of plausible possibilities, anticipates a range of outcomes, and does not simply depend on straight- line predictions. Its work strives to go beyond conventional wisdom. Another important goal of the Center is to stay ahead of today’s headlines by looking at “the problems after next,” and not simply focusing on analyses of current events. The objective is to provide analyses that are actionable, not merely commentary. Although the Center’s charter does not exclude any area of the world, Center analysts have clusters of proven expertise in the following areas: The full range of Asian security issues, especially those that relate to China 0 Russian security issues, based on ten years of strategic dialogue with Russian institutes Maritime strategy Future national security environment and forces Strategic issues related to European littoral regions Missile defense Latin America Operations in the Persian (Arabian) Gulf 0 Relations with the world‘s important navies Force protection. -
Tropical Cyclones in 1988
ROYAL OBSERVATORY HONG KONG TROPICAL CYCLONES IN 1988 CROWN COPYRIGHT RESERVED Published September 1989 Prepared by Royal Observatory 134A Nathan Road Kowloon Hong Kong Permission to reproduce any part of this publication should be obtained through the Royal Observatory This publication is prepared and disseminated in the interest of promoting the exchange of information. The Government of Hong Kong (including its officers and employees) makes no warranty or representation, expressed or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility (including liability for negligence) for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of the information contained herein or for any loss, damage, or injury (including death) which may result, whether directly or indirectly, from the supply or use of such information. This publication is available from: Government Publications Centre General Post Office Building Ground Floor Connaught Place Hong Kong 551.515.2:551.506.1(512.317) 3 CONTENTS Page FRONTISPIECE: Tracks of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific and the South China Sea in 1988 FIGURES 4 TABLES 5 1. INTRODUCTION 7 2. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARIES FOR 1988 10 3. REPORTS ON TROPICAL CYCLONES AFFECTING HONG KONG IN 1988 16 (a) Typhoon Susan (8802): 30 May-3 June 16 (b) Tropical Storm Vanessa (8805): 27-29 June 20 (c) Typhoon Warren (8806): 14-20 July 23 (d) Typhoon Kit (8821): 19-22 September 35 (e) Typhoon Pat (8827): 18-23 October 39 (f) Typhoon Ruby (8828): 21-29 October 43 4. DESCRIPTION OF TABLES 48 5. TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION AND INTENSITY DATA, 1988 60 4 FIGURES Page 1. Locations of anemometer and tide gauge stations in Hong Kong 9 2. -
Marianas Variety : Death of My Husband, Galen
I l • l \ ar1anas J MICRONESIA'S LEADING NEWSPAPER SINCE 1972 r Saipan, MP I Vol. 16, No. 42 Friday, January 22, 1988 25¢ 'i·. Governor nixes Tinian casinos ·I Will need 213 majoritv of legislature to over-ride Governor Pedro P. Tenorio Tinian. stated that the issue of gambling has to be approved or vetoed a proposed local law "As a matterof principle, I have no alternative but to ~e disapproved by the people." By Nick Legaspi Thursday which would have guided by the wishes of the people and veto Senate Local Staff reporter He also cited the failure of the local initiative to allow allowed casino gambling in Bill No.5-6," Tenorio told Senate President Benjamin T. casino gambling in Tinian during the Nov.7 election. The Manglona and House Speaker Pedro R. Guerrero in a same proposal was passed by the upper house as Senate message accompanying the unsigned copy of the bill. Local Bill 5-6. The bill was passed by the Senate in December follow- Tenorio, in his message, also noted "numerous concerns regarding whether the manner in which the bill was passed com plied with the Consti I tution of ~e Northern Mariana Islands." He assured the leg ; islative leaders that ! j his decision to veto ,.,... ,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,., .... ,.,.,., ...,.,.,,., .. ,,.,,,., ..... ,.,.,.,., .... .:.; ... ,,,,.,,., .. ,.. ... ............... ..... ... .. ............ .. .......... ... .... .... ....... the bill was not be- clearly demonstrated that casino gambling is a very cause of the legal issues "but because of the result of the sensitive issue and one which evokes strong ., recent election." Governor Tenorio feelings,"Tenorio said." On several occasionsJ have The governor's veto may be overriden by the Legisla- ·, Merchants band together to fight I I' port charge: Anti-trust charged Grand Jury '.\ ,,I ! i' By DAVID T. -
The Cold War and Beyond Chronology of the United States Air Force, 1947-1997
The Cold War and Beyond Chronology of the United States Air Force, 1947-1997 Frederick J. Shaw Jr. Timothy Warnock Air Force History and Museums Program in association with Air University Press 1997 Form Approved Report Documentation Page OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to a penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. 1. REPORT DATE 3. DATES COVERED 2. REPORT TYPE 1997 - 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER The Cold War and Beyond Chronology of the United States Air Force, 5b. GRANT NUMBER 1947-1997 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER Air University Press,Maxwell AFB,Al,36112 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S ACRONYM(S) 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S REPORT NUMBER(S) 12. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT Approved for public release; distribution unlimited 13. -
Pacific ENSO Update 3Rd Quarter, 2015
Pacific ENSO Update Page 1 3rd Quarter, 2015 Vol. 21, No. 3 ISSUED: July 30th, 2015 Providing Information on Climate Variability in the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands for the Past 20 Years. http://www.prh.noaa.gov/peac CURRENT CONDITIONS During the first half of 2015, substantial warming of the equatorial Pacific sea surface and sub-surface waters clearly and unambiguously signaled the arrival of El Niño. Wild weather patterns typical of El Niño onset were observed across the region. These included noteworthy extremes of rainfall and an abundance of early-season tropical cyclones. Strong oceanic responses included the aforementioned oceanic warming and dramatic lowering of the sea level across much of Micronesia. Strong westerly wind bursts accompanied by twin (northern hemisphere-southern hemisphere) tropical cyclone formation were noted at roughly 30-day intervals, with quiet periods in between. This is the hallmark signature of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) amplified by the background El Niño climate state. Through mid-July, twelve named topical cyclones were observed in the western North Pacific basin (see the tropical cyclone discussion). One of these -- Typhoon Halola -- entered from the central Pacific. All but one of the 12 (TS Kujira formed and stayed in the South China Sea) tracked within the bounds of Micronesia, where many islands took a beating. The most damaging of the early season typhoons was super typhoon Maysak, which (at the end of March 2015) left a trail of destruction from Chuuk State west- ward through Yap State. There was considerable damage and four deaths in Chuuk State, and Ulithi Atoll experienced a devastating direct strike by this super typhoon. -
Pattern Classification of Typhoon Tracks Using the Fuzzy C-Means
488 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 24 Pattern Classification of Typhoon Tracks Using the Fuzzy c-Means Clustering Method HYEONG-SEOG KIM School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea JOO-HONG KIM Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan CHANG-HOI HO School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea PAO-SHIN CHU Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii (Manuscript received 25 March 2010, in final form 14 August 2010) ABSTRACT A fuzzy c-means clustering method (FCM) is applied to cluster tropical cyclone (TC) tracks. FCM is suitable for the data where cluster boundaries are ambiguous, such as a group of TC tracks. This study in- troduces the feasibility of a straightforward metric to incorporate the entire shapes of all tracks into the FCM, that is, the interpolation of all tracks into equal number of segments. Four validity measures (e.g., partition coefficient, partition index, separation index, and Dunn index) are used objectively to determine the optimum number of clusters. This results in seven clusters from 855 TCs over the western North Pacific (WNP) from June through October during 1965–2006. The seven clusters are characterized by 1) TCs striking the Korean Peninsula and Japan with north-oriented tracks, 2) TCs affecting Japan with long trajectories, 3) TCs hitting Taiwan and eastern China with west-oriented tracks, 4) TCs passing the east of Japan with early recurving tracks, 5) TCs traveling the easternmost region over the WNP, 6) TCs over the South China Sea, and 7) TCs moving straight across the Philippines.