Bright Spots: Seeds of a Good Anthropocene

City Research Online City, University of London Institutional Repository Citation: Bennett, E. M., Solan, M., Biggs, R., McPhearson, T., Norstrom, A. V., Olsson, P., Pereira, L. ORCID: 0000-0002-4996-7234, Peterson, G. D., Raudsepp-Hearne, C., Biermann, F., Carpenter, S. R., Ellis, E. C., Hichert, T., Galaz, V., Lahsen, M., Milkoreit, M., Lopez, B. M., Nicholas, K. A., Preiser, R., Vince, G., Vervoort, J. M. and Xu, J. (2016). Bright spots: seeds of a good Anthropocene. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 14(8), pp. 441-448. doi: 10.1002/fee.1309 This is the published version of the paper. This version of the publication may differ from the final published version. Permanent repository link: https://openaccess.city.ac.uk/id/eprint/19414/ Link to published version: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/fee.1309 Copyright: City Research Online aims to make research outputs of City, University of London available to a wider audience. 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City Research Online: http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/ [email protected] CONCEPTS AND QUESTIONS Bright spots: seeds of a good Anthropocene 441 Elena M Bennett1*†, Martin Solan2†, Reinette Biggs3,4, Timon McPhearson5, Albert V Norström3, Per Olsson3, Laura Pereira4,6, Garry D Peterson3, Ciara Raudsepp-Hearne7, Frank Biermann8, Stephen R Carpenter9, Erle C Ellis10, Tanja Hichert11, Victor Galaz3, Myanna Lahsen12, Manjana Milkoreit13, Berta Martin López14, Kimberly A Nicholas15, Rika Preiser4, Gaia Vince16, Joost M Vervoort17,8, and Jianchu Xu18,19 The scale, rate, and intensity of humans’ environmental impact has engendered broad discussion about how to find plausible pathways of development that hold the most promise for fostering a better future in the Anthropocene. However, the dominance of dystopian visions of irreversible environmental degradation and societal collapse, along with overly optimistic utopias and business- as- usual scenarios that lack insight and innovation, frustrate progress. Here, we present a novel approach to thinking about the future that builds on experiences drawn from a diversity of practices, worldviews, values, and regions that could accelerate the adoption of pathways to transformative change (change that goes beyond incremental improvements). Using an analysis of 100 initiatives, or “seeds of a good Anthropocene”, we find that emphasizing hopeful elements of existing practice offers the opportunity to: (1) understand the values and features that constitute a good Anthropocene, (2) determine the processes that lead to the emergence and growth of initiatives that fundamentally change human–environmental relationships, and (3) generate creative, bottom-up scenarios that feature well- articulated pathways toward a more positive future. Front Ecol Environ 2016; 14(8): 441–448, doi:10.1002/fee.1309 nprecedented levels of anthropogenic change utopian (eg the Great Transitions scenario [Raskin et al. U continue to raise concerns about the future of the 2002]) and dystopian (eg Order from Strength scenario biosphere (Ellis 2015) and have inadvertently driven the [MA 2005]) scenarios of the future exist, discussions tend Earth into a new geological era – the Anthropocene to be dominated by dystopian visions of irreversible envi- (Crutzen 2002) – which carries novel risks and threatens ronmental degradation and societal collapse that ulti- the planetary conditions required for human societies to mately diminish human quality of life (Robbins and flourish (Steffen et al. 2015). Although both relatively Moore 2013; Lovelock 2014). Whether or not one agrees with these characterizations, extrapolations of current, maladaptive trends into a bleak future run the risk of In a nutshell: becoming self- fulfilling, because people base their actions • Existing global scenarios of possible futures are often based on what they believe about society and their future on highly simplified worldviews dominated by just a few (Ostrom et al. 2002). Moreover, “scare” scenarios can be driving forces and are therefore less nuanced than the counterproductive for policy and societal change, real world tends to be particularly when resources are insufficient or unavailable • Such scenarios may be improved and diversified by incorporating current examples of good practice, innova- (Fischer et al. 2012). tions, and experiments The future does not have to be bleak. The continuing • These initiatives or “seeds of a good Anthropocene” can emergence of new thinking, innovative ways of living, also help us to understand the different components of and different means to connect people and nature are a better future that people want, and to recognize the vital in overcoming critical local and global challenges processes that lead to the emergence and growth of initiatives that fundamentally change human–environmental that otherwise constrain sustainable Earth stewardship relationships (Chapin et al. 2011). Indeed, some earlier dystopic fore- casts have not been realized (eg mass starvation of humans due to overpopulation; Ehrlich 1968), numerous social trends including education and security are improv- 1McGill School of Environment and Department of Natural ing (Raudsepp- Hearne et al. 2010), and evidence from Resource Sciences, McGill University, Ste-Anne-de-Bellevue, our recent past shows that major societal transitions Canada *([email protected]); 2Ocean and Earth Science, generally emerge in the face of unprecedented social– National Oceanography Centre Southampton, University of environmental challenges (DeFries et al. 2012; Ellis Southampton, Southampton, UK; 3Stockholm Resilience 2015). Numerous individuals, organizations, and political Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; 4Centre for leaders are becoming aware of the global threats that soci- Complex Systems in Transition, Stellenbosch University, ety faces, and many are increasingly engaging in new Stellenbosch, South Africa; 5Environmental Studies, Urban Ecology strategies for creating a more just, prosperous, and ecolog- Lab, The New School, New York, NY; continued on p 448 ically diverse world – a “good Anthropocene”. This has © The Ecological Society of America www.frontiersinecology.org Seeds of a good Anthropocene EM Bennett et al. 442 across a variety of settings (Westley et al. 2011; Olsson et al. 2014) and can be expected to involve fundamental changes in human values, assumptions, cultures, worldviews, and power relations (divisions of power among groups of people) that influence societal norms and insti- tutions governing behavior (Fischer et al. 2012). Still, this future will have to build on the present and will be composed of many elements already in existence, albeit reconfigured and combined with new participants, ideas, infrastructure, and technologies; paradoxically, the Anthropocene itself provides an opportunity to guide attitudes, choices, and actions that increase the like- lihood of realizing a desirable future (Bai et al. 2015). Figure 1. We live at a time of opportunity for transition to a We propose that focusing attention on these initia- safe and just operating space for humanity (Steffen et al. 2015; tives, or “seeds” (Figure 2) of a good Anthropocene, offers Raworth 2012). Recent and historical changes to multiple a novel way forward because, rather than concentrating biophysical global indicators show a decline in environmental on potential negative changes that have not yet occurred, quality and ecosystem integrity. At the same time, social and it can help sustain and amplify efforts that already exist or health indicators show steady increases in human health and desires people have for the future (eg Leach et al. 2012) well- being, largely at the cost of ecosystem integrity. It will be and that are crucial to the achievement of large- scale important to document, describe, and innovate ways to navigate transformations (Scott 1998). We also recognize that along development trajectories that avoid dystopian futures, people can hold vastly different views on what a good where thresholds necessary for maintaining a good quality of life quality of life entails and on which values are most impor- are not met. tant for human happiness and well-being, which sets an expectation that multiple pathways will be necessary to led to comprehensive intergovernmental negotiations achieve a series of desirable alternative futures. Such and related consultative processes, such as the UN information can be used to (1) understand the key char- Sustainable Development Goals, that emphasize the link- acteristics and underlying values that people want from a ages between economic, social, and environmental good Anthropocene; (2) appreciate the processes and aspects of sustainable development and set specific conditions that make some initiatives, rather than others, targets to move human society toward desirable futures emerge, grow, spread, and have large- scale transformative within the Anthropocene (Resolution 70/1, UN General impacts beyond localities and sectors; and (3) explore Assembly 2015; http://bit.ly/29kJaEI). how seeds can inspire

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