Consumer Staples / China 168 HK Consumer Staples / China 15 August 2014 Tsingtao Brewery Tsingtao Brewery Target (HKD): 53.80 Downside: 10.5% 168 HK 14 Aug price (HKD): 60.10 Initiation: losing its fizz 1 Buy • We see risks to the consensus EPS forecasts, with a deterioration 2 Outperform in product mix weighing on Tsingtao’s operating-profit margin 3 Hold • 2015E valuations of 28x PER and 15x EV/EBITDA do not look 4 Underperform (initiation) attractive compared with the sector average 5 Sell • Initiating coverage with an Underperform (4) rating and target price of HKD53.80 How do we justify our view? M&A growth is over. Although valuation is unattractive compared Tsingtao has a strong net-cash with the sector average of 20.3x and position (2014E: CNY6.6bn), we Tsingtao’s past-5-year average of believe its sales-volume growth and 25.2x. valuation can no longer be Anson Chan supported by M&A as has been the ■ Risks (852) 2532 4350 case over the past 5 years. This is The main risks to our view include
[email protected] because most of the large breweries price hikes and EPS-accretive M&A. have already been acquired. Alison Law, CFA (852) 2532 4308 How we differ. Our 2015-16 EPS
[email protected] Share price performance forecasts are 5-6% below those of the Bloomberg consensus, as we (HKD) (%) assume higher selling expenses for 70 105 ■ Investment case 66 100 We initiate coverage of Tsingtao the mass-market products. 62 96 Brewery (Tsingtao), the second- 58 91 largest beer maker in China with a ■ Catalysts 54 86 17% share of the market in 2013, We see the following as derating Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 with an Underperform (4) rating.