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The Copyright of This Thesis Rests with the University of Cape Town. No Town The copyright of this thesis rests with the University of Cape Town. No quotation from it or information derivedCape from it is to be published without full acknowledgement of theof source. The thesis is to be used for private study or non-commercial research purposes only. University Decision aiding in off-grid electrification projects: the role of uncertainty acknowledgement and objectives alignment Bernard Bekker Town Cape Of University Thesis presented in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Electrical Engineering. Department of Electrical Engineering University of Cape Town February 2010 Town Cape Of University Table of Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................................ 3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................................ 6 DECLARATION ............................................................................................................................. 7 ACRONYMS ................................................................................................................................... 8 GLOSSARY ................................................................................................................................... 10 ABSTRACT ...................................................................................................................................Town 13 1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................. 15 1.1 NON-PERFORMANCE OF OFF-GRID RURAL ELECTRIFICATION IN SOUTH AFRICA ............ 15 1.2 CAUSES AND POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS FOR THISCape NON-PERFORMANCE .............................. 23 1.3 HYPOTHESIS AND RESEARCH QUESTIONS ........................................................................ 29 1.4 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY / CONCEPTUALOf MAP ............................................................ 31 2 OFF-GRID ELECTRIFICATION THAT ALIGNS WITH SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT ......................................................................................................................... 32 2.1 SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT ......................................................................................... 33 2.2 TOWARDS A MEASUREMENT FRAMEWORK ..................................................................... 35 2.3 DEVELOPMENTUniversity OF AN ENERGISATION FRAMEWORK ....................................................... 39 2.4 EVALUATION OF PROJECTS AGAINST THE ENERGISATION FRAMEWORK ......................... 42 2.5 IN SUMMARY ................................................................................................................... 53 3 OBJECTIVES NON-ACHIEVEMENT DUE TO UNACKNOWLEDGED UNCERTAINTIES ....................................................................................................................... 54 3.1 FROM OBJECTIVE-INHIBITING FACTORS TO PROJECT UNCERTAINTIES ............................ 55 3.2 THE DECISION MAKING PROCESS ..................................................................................... 62 3.3 THE IMPACT OF UNACKNOWLEDGED UNCERTAINTIES .................................................... 64 3.4 IN SUMMARY ................................................................................................................... 72 4 ACHIEVING OBJECTIVES THROUGH HIGH QUALITY DECISIONS ................... 74 p3 Table of Contents 4.1 DIFFERENT CONCEPTUALISATIONS OF UNCERTAINTY .................................................... 75 4.2 QUALITY IN THE DECISION MAKING PROCESS ................................................................. 81 4.3 DECISION AIDING TO SUPPORT HIGH QUALITY DECISION MAKING .................................. 88 4.4 IS HIGH QUALITY DECISION MAKING SUFFICIENT? .......................................................... 96 4.5 IN SUMMARY ................................................................................................................. 100 5 IMPROVING DECISION AIDING APPROACHES AND TOOLS ............................. 101 5.1 IDENTIFYING AN EXISTING HIGH QUALITY APPROACH AND TOOLS ............................... 102 5.2 IMPROVING OBJECTIVES ALIGNMENT ............................................................................ 107 5.3 IMPROVING SOFT UNCERTAINTY ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ................................................ 109 5.4 IMPROVING HARD UNCERTAINTY ACKNOWLEDGMENT................................................. 123 5.5 THE IMPACT OF IMPROVED DECISION AIDING ................................................................ 130 5.6 IN SUMMARY ................................................................................................................. 140 6 CONCLUSIONS.................................................................................................................. 142 6.1 AN IMPROVED UNDERSTANDING OF FACTORS THAT LEAD TO FAILURE ........................ 142 6.2 TOWARDS MEETING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVESTown ...... ERROR ! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. 6.3 LIMITATIONS OF DECISION AIDING ................................................................................ 147 6.4 WIDER APPLICATION OF THIS RESEARCH ......................................................................Cape 148 APPENDIX A – IDENTIFYING ENERGISATION PRIMARY SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES AND INDICATORSOf ......................................................... 149 SOCIAL OBJECTIVES .................................................................................................................. 149 ECONOMIC OBJECTIVES ............................................................................................................. 152 ENVIRONMENTAL OBJECTIVES .................................................................................................. 155 APPENDIX B – EVALUATION OF IMPLEMENTED SA OFF-GRID ELECTRIFICATIONUniversity PROJECTS ........................................................................................... 158 INFORMATION SOURCES AND STRUCTURE OF PROJECT EVALUATIONS ..................................... 158 MAPHEPHETHE PILOT SHS PROJECT ......................................................................................... 159 KWABHAZA ENERGISATION PROJECT ....................................................................................... 164 FOLOVHODWE PROJECT ............................................................................................................. 170 THE DME’S SHS CONCESSION PROGRAM ................................................................................. 176 HLULEKA AND LUCINGWENI HYBRID MINI-GRID DEMONSTRATION PROJECTS ......................... 186 APPENDIX C – THE STRUCTURE OF THE DECISION PROCESS ................................ 201 ROY’S [1996] FOUR LEVELS OF THE DECISION PROCESS ........................................................... 201 BELTON AND STEWARD [2002]: A SIMPLIFIED STRUCTURE ...................................................... 202 APPENDIX D - CASE STUDIES IN DECISION AIDING .................................................... 204 p4 Table of Contents CASE STUDY 1: STRATEGIC INFRASTRUCTURE PLAN FOR THE WESTERN CAPE ....................... 204 CASE STUDY 2: ENERGY STORAGE TECHNOLOGIES OVERVIEW ................................................ 208 CASE STUDY 3: ELECTRICITY SUPPLY FOR A RURAL SCHOOL IN LIMPOPO ............................... 211 APPENDIX E – EVALUATION OF DECISION MAKING WITHIN THE KLIPHEUWEL PROJECT .................................................................................................................................... 216 BACKGROUND TO THE KWEDF PROJECT ................................................................................. 216 THE DECISION PROBLEMS .......................................................................................................... 217 PRELIMINARY PHASE DECISION AIDING .................................................................................... 218 SCOPING PHASE DECISION AIDING ............................................................................................. 221 SPECIALIST STUDIES PHASE DECISION AIDING .......................................................................... 224 ESKOM’S INVOLVEMENT IN COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT ......................................................... 226 ANALYSIS OF THE QUALITY OF THE DECISION AIDING PROCESS ............................................... 227 APPENDIX F – PROJECT CYCLE MANAGEMENT AND THE LOGICAL FRAMEWORK APPROACH ................................................................................................... 229 A BRIEF OVERVIEW OF PCM AND LFA .....................................................................................Town 229 THE EC’S PROJECT CYCLE MANAGEMENT ............................................................................... 230 THE EC’S IMPLEMENTATION OF THE LFA AND LOGFRAME ..................................................... 239 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................Cape 241 Of University p5 Table of Contents Acknowledgements The writing of a PhD thesis is not only a challenge to the author, but also affects the lives of a number of people around him. I would like to express my gratitude to these people: My supervisor, Trevor Gaunt, for the role he played as mentor in sharing his
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