NATIONAL SECURITY & DEFENCE π 9-10 (167-168) CONTENT 2016 RUSSIA’S “HYBRID” WAR – CHALLENGE AND THREAT FOR EUROPE .................2 Founded and published by: European Dimension of Russia’s Aggression ............................................. 2 Russia’s Hybrid Aggression: Ukrainian Foothold ........................................ 7 RUSSIA’S “HYBRID” AGGRESSION: GOALS, CONSEQUENCES, COUNTERMEASURES UKRAINIAN CENTRE FOR ECONOMIC & POLITICAL STUDIES (Interview) ...................................................................................................... 17 NAMED AFTER OLEXANDER RAZUMKOV Director General Anatoliy Rachok Maksym ROZUMNYI, Anatoliy OKTYSIUK, Vadym TRIUKHAN, Kostiantyn KONONENKO, Dmytro ZOLOTUKHIN, Vitaliy MARTYNIUK, Editors Valeriya Klymenko Hryhoriy PEREPELYTSYA, Volodymyr OHRYZKO, Leonid POLIAKOV, Hanna Pashkova Oleksandr KHARA, Yevhen MAHDA, Volodymyr FESENKO, Photo-editor Andriy Khopta Oleksiy SEMENIY, Volodymyr KOPCHAK Layout and design Oleksandr Shaptala RUSSIA’S “HYBRID” AGGRESSION IN UKRAINE AND IN EUROPE: Technical support Volodymyr Kekukh EXPERT OPINIONS AND ASSESSMENTS Eugen Skrypka (Expert Opinion) ............................................................................................. 38 This journal is registered with the State Committee THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT IN THE EYES OF CITIZENS of Ukraine for Information Policy, (Public Opinion) ............................................................................................. 45 registration certificate KB №4122 CHARACTERISTICS AND CONSEQUENCES OF RUSSIAN EXPANSION: EXPERT DIALOGUE Published in Ukrainian and English (The Roundtable Discussion) ......................................................................... 54 Viktor YELENSKYI, Ihor ROMANENKO, Anzhela DANELIAN, Circulation: 1,300 copies Oleksandr SAVCHENKO, Taras STETSKIV, Ruslan SYDOROVYCH ARTICLES Editorial address: TOTAL WAR PUTIN-STYLE: RUSSIA’S “HYBRID” WAR AGAINST UKRAINE 16 Lavrska str., 2nd floor, Oleksandr LYTVYNENKO ........................................................................... 60 Kyiv, 01015 “HYBRID” WORLD WAR IV (2014-2016). tel.: (380 44) 201-11-98 THE RISE AND FALL OF THE “RUSSIAN WORLD” fax: (380 44) 201-11-99 e-mail: [email protected] Andrey PIONTKOVSKY .............................................................................. 64 web site: www.razumkov.org.ua INFORMATIONAL-PSYCHOLOGICAL ASPECT OF A “HYBRID” WAR Lidia SMOLA ............................................................................................. 68 Reprinted or used materials must refer to FROM “RUSSIA’S GREATNESS” TO “GRAND EURASIA”: HYBRID WAR “National Security & Defence” AS A MECHANISM OF RUSSIA’S GEOPOLITICAL EXPANSION Mykhailo HONCHAR.................................................................................. 72 All photos in this publication MILITARY COMPONENT OF RUSSIA’S AGGRESSION are taken from public sources. Konstantin MASHOVETS ........................................................................... 81 THE CHALLENGE OF “HYBRID WAR” © Razumkov Centre James SHERR ........................................................................................... 85 RUSSIA AND СENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE: THE PUBLICATION IS SUPPORTED BY BETWEEN CONFRONTATION AND COLLUSION THE GOVERNMENT OF SWEDEN Pavel K. BAEV ........................................................................................... 87 KREMLIN’S NETWORKS IN FRANCE (Book Except) Cecile VAISSIE .......................................................................................... 98 RUSSIA’S “HYBRID” WAR – CHALLENGE AND THREAT FOR EUROPE ussia’s aggression against Ukraine that started in February 2014 with the annexation of Crimea and R is still going on in Donbas, demonstrated critical vulnerability of the Western world to Kremlin’s “hybrid warfare” policy. The West, divided and burdened with internal problems (“migrant crisis”, Brexit) and external challenges (D. Trump “effect”, Syrian war), is experiencing a critical deficit of unity and coordination of actions toward Russia, lack of public awareness as to the nature and goals of Putin’s regime, fears of nuclear confrontation with Russia. Meanwhile, the far-right political movements, Euroscepticism, populism, isolationism – i.e., “LePenisation” of Europe – may gain ground after the elections in France and Germany. (Quite telling in this context have been the recent elections in Bulgaria and Moldova, where pro-Russian socialists won). All of this is happening amid total depreciation of global and regional security structures, and is threatening not only with escalation of conflicts on the continent, but also with destruction of the European community. The Western world has not generated adequate and effective means, mechanisms and policies to counter Russia’s hybrid expansion. On the contrary, there is an increasing threat of disintegration of a single “sanctions front”, which Kremlin will view with impunity and encouragement for further active actions. The conflict in Syria has proven that Kremlin’s imperial policy is not limited to the post-Soviet space, and Ukraine is just a springboard for further expansion. In the past three years, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has become deep-rooted and long-term causing tectonic changes in relations between Kyiv and Moscow. Russia’s aggression has inflicted unprecedented human, territorial, economic losses on Ukraine, and from the entire range of bilateral relations (not to mention the war itself), for a long time to come has left Ukraine only the format of confrontational coexistence with Russia – limited, forced, and cold – depending on the unfolding situation. The Russia-Ukraine hybrid war is not a local, peripheral conflict. Kremlin’s aggression poses a threat not only to Ukraine’s statehood and sovereignty, but also to the unity of the EU and, in general, to the political structure of Europe. Therefore, finding adequate, effective forms of response, developing a common policy of countering Russia’s expansion is critically important. EUROPEAN DIMENSION given by an incumbent MI5 chief in the service’s OF RUSSIA’S AGGRESSION 107-year history, Andrew Parker said: “It [Russia] is In recent years, there have been a number of using its whole range of state organs and powers to comprehensive analytical studies by national and foreign push its foreign policy abroad in increasingly aggressive experts, which look at the goals, methods and means ways – involving propaganda, espionage, subversion of Russia’s hybrid aggression in Ukraine and Europe. and cyber-attacks. Russia is at work across Europe and 2 For example, one of the latest (November 2016) – in the UK today”. “The Kremlin’s Trojan Horses”, prepared by Atlantic The tactical tasks of Russia’s hybrid aggression Council group of experts, – exposes some facts of include gradual discrediting and erosion of basic Russia’s hybrid expansion in Germany, France and st 1 European values that unite EU member ates; the UK. disorientation of public opinion; formation of an The scale of Russia’s influence got so alarming that influential pro-Russian lobby in European political on 1 November 2016 in the first newspaper interview establishment; accentuation of differences between 1 Marcel H. Van Herpen. Putin’s Wars. Chechnya, Georgia, Ukraine: Undigested Lessons of the Past. – Kharkiv, 2015; Yu. Fedorov. “Hybrid” War A-La Russe. Centre for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies. – Kyiv, 2016; E. Magda. Hybrid Warfare: Survive and Win. – Kharkiv, 2015; Putin Hybression. Non-Military Aspects of New Generation Warfare. Centre for Global Studies “Strategy XXI”. – Kyiv, 2016; V. Horbulin, O. Vlasiuk, S. Kononenko. Ukraine and Russia: the Tenth Wave or the Chinese Wall. NISS, Kyiv, 2015. http://www.niss.gov.ua/content/articles/files/Gorbulin_Ukraine_08_05_pereverstka2.indd-2da77.pdf; Information Challenges of Hybrid War: Content, Channels, Countermeasures. NISS Monograph, Kyiv, 2016. – http://www.niss.gov.ua/public/File/2016_nauk_anal_rozrob/ inform_vukluku.pdf; A. Arzhanovskyi. Discord between Ukraine and Russia: Dive Recovery Strategy. – Kharkiv, 2015; Yu. Felshtinski. S. Stanchev. Third World War: Battle for Ukraine. – Kyiv, 2015; J. Sherr. Hard Diplomacy and Soft Coercion. – Razumkov Centre, Kyiv, 2013; C.Vaissie. Les reseaux du kremlin en france. – Les Petit Matins. 2016; The Kremlin’s Trojan Horses. – Atlantic Council – atlanticcouncil.org/images/publications/The_Kremlins_Trojan_Horses_ web_1116.pdf. 2 The Guardian, 1 November 2016 – https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/oct/31/andrew-parker-increasingly-aggressive-russia-a-growing-threat- to-uk-says-mi5-head. 2 • RAZUMKOV CENTRE • NATIONAL SECURITY & DEFENCE • №9-10, 2016 RUSSIA’S “HYBRID” WAR – CHALLENGE AND THREAT FOR EUROPE European countries and EU institutions.3 Today, it is Russia’s hybrid warfare also includes a set of not just about fending off Europe’s influence in the “traditional” means of influence – political-diplomatic post-Soviet space – “zone of Kremlin’s privileged pressure (including, the active use of international interests”, but also about a large-scale hybrid institutions), economic tools (to which the West is least susceptible), active use of “energy weapon” (an effective expansion across the EU with an ultimate goal of 7 weakening/fragmenting (breaking apart) the Euro- leverage, mostly in the post-Soviet space). At the same time, Kremlin leadership is actively and extensively pean Union, minimising US presence on the conti- employing methods and measures from the special