A GIS-Based Multi-Commodity Freight Model: Typology, Model Refinement and Field Validation Christopher Michael Monsere Iowa State University
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Iowa State University Capstones, Theses and Retrospective Theses and Dissertations Dissertations 2001 A GIS-based multi-commodity freight model: typology, model refinement and field validation Christopher Michael Monsere Iowa State University Follow this and additional works at: https://lib.dr.iastate.edu/rtd Part of the Civil Engineering Commons Recommended Citation Monsere, Christopher Michael, "A GIS-based multi-commodity freight model: typology, model refinement and field validation " (2001). Retrospective Theses and Dissertations. 1068. https://lib.dr.iastate.edu/rtd/1068 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Iowa State University Capstones, Theses and Dissertations at Iowa State University Digital Repository. It has been accepted for inclusion in Retrospective Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Iowa State University Digital Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected]. 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Photographs included in the original manuscript have been reproduced xerographically in this copy. Higher quality 6" x 9" black and white photographic prints are available for any photographs or illustrations appearing in this copy for an additional charge. Contact UMI directly to order. ProQuest Information and Learning 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 USA 800-521-0600 A GIS-based multi-commodity freight model: Typology, model refinement and field validation by Christopher Michael Monsere A dissertation submitted to the graduate faculty in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Major: Civil Engineering (Transportation Engineering) Major Professors: Reginald R. Souleyrette and Thomas H. Maze Iowa State University Ames, Iowa 2001 UMI Number: 3016733 UMI ® UMI Microform 3016733 Copyright 2001 by Bell & Howell Information and Learning Company. All rights reserved. This microform edition is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. Bell & Howell Information and Learning Company 300 North Zeeb Road P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 11 Graduate College Iowa State University This is to certify that the Doctoral Dissertation of Christopher Michael Monsere has met the dissertation requirements of Iowa State University Signature was redacted for privacy. Signature was redacted for privacy. Co-Major Professo; Signature was redacted for privacy. Signature was redacted for privacy. Signature was redacted for privacy. Member Signature was redacted for privacy. Signature was redacted for privacy. iii To my loving wife Karen, forever and always iv TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES vii LIST OF TABLES ix LIST OF ACRONYMS xi ACKNOWLEDMENTS xiv ABSTRACT xvi CHAPTER 1 - INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Problem Statement 2 1.2 Contributions of the Research 5 1.3 Overview and Organization of Research 7 CHAPTER 2 - BACKGROUND 10 2.1 Federal Legislation 10 2.2 Multimodal Statewide Planning in Iowa 11 2.3 Trends in Freight Transportation 14 2.4 Implications for Model Application 19 CHAPTER 3 - TYPOLOGY OF FREIGHT NETWORK MODELS 21 3.1 General Classes of Models 21 3.2 Review of Freight Models 23 3.3 Summary 42 CHAPTER 4 - SELECTED FREIGHT DATA SOURCES 44 4.1 Freight Data Sources 45 4.2 Summary 54 CHAPTER 5 - MULTIMODAL NETWORK DEVELOPMENT 57 5.1 Commodity Analysis Zones 58 5.2 Rail Network 60 5.3 Highway Network 64 5.4 Intermodal Connections 66 5.5 Error Checking 68 5.6 Network and Commodity Analysis Zones for Bridge Traffic Model 68 5.7 Summary 70 CHAPTER 6 - DEVELOPMENT OF COMMODITY FLOWS 72 6.1 Commodity Flow Data 73 6.2 Selection of Commodity Groups 73 V 6.3 Disaggregation Method 84 6.4 Development of Data for Bridge Traffic Model 88 6.5 Summary 95 CHAPTER 7 - MODEL METHODOLOGY 96 7.1 Trip Distribution 96 7.2 Mode Split and Assignment 100 7.3 Summary 104 CHAPTER 8 - CONVERSION OF FREIGHT TONS TO VEHICLES 106 8.1 Method 106 8.2 Average Loads for Trucks 107 8.3 Average Carload Weights for Rail Ill 8.4 Empty vehicle expansion factors Ill 8.5 Converting Tons to Vehicle Units 114 8.6 Summary 116 CHAPTER 9 - DATA COLLECTION 117 9.1 Overview 118 9.2 Highway Data. 119 9.3 Railway Data 126 9.4 Compiling the Collected Data 130 9.5 Matching the Highway Data 132 9.6 Highway Vehicle Results 139 9.7 Rail Vehicle Results 144 9.8 Summary 146 CHAPTER 10 - MODEL CALIBRATION 147 10.1 Calibration Methodology 147 10.2 Gravity Model Calibration 149 10.3 Mode Split Calibration 151 10.4 Selection of Final Parameters 152 10.5 Summary 158 CHAPTER 11 - MODEL VALIDATION 160 11.1 Validation of the Model with Ground Counts 161 11.2 Development of Validation Data Set from Field Data 168 11.3 Validation of Model with Field Collected Data 180 11.4 Summary 184 CHAPTER 12 - SENSTIVTTY ANALYSIS AND CASE STUDY 186 12.1 Sensitivity Analysis 186 12.2 Case Study. 193 12.3 Conclusion 196 VI CHAPTER 13 - CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 198 13.1 Summary of Model Development, Validation and Application 198 13.2 Conclusions and Limitations 202 13.3 Recommendations 204 APPENDIX A - FREIGHT MODEL MANAGER CODE 207 APPENDIX B - TRANPLAN CODE 241 REFERENCES 245 vii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 Model Development Overview 8 Figure 2 Bureau of Economic Analysis Zones 46 Figure 3 Locations of Iowa Truck Survey Locations 50 Figure 4 Commodity Analysis Zones 59 Figure 5 Carload Tariff Rates by Commodity 67 Figure 6 CAZ for CFS Bridge Traffic Analysis 69 Figure 7 Multimodal Network 71 Figure 8 Selection Process for Commodities 74 Figure 9 Union Graph of Commodity Groups by STCC Selected by Each Method 80 Figure 10 Example of Disaggregation Procedure 90 Figure 11 Flowchart for Conversion of Tons to Vehicle Units 108 Figure 12 Developing the Commodity Database 120 Figure 13 Truck Configurations 121 Figure 14 Vehicle Identification Numbers on Motor Carrier 124 Figure 15 Trailer Types 124 Figure 16 Highway Data Locations 126 Figure 17 Rail Car Types 129 Figure 18 Rail Data Locations 131 Figure 19 MCMIS Search Dialog 138 Figure 20 Flowchart for Calibration Process 148 Figure 21 Trip Length Distribution - Calibration of STCC 201 150 Figure 22 Selection of Optimal Calibration "Run" For STCC 204 153 viii Figure 23 Calibrated Friction Factors for All Commodity Groups 156 Figure 24 Scatter Plot of Ground Counts vs. Modeled Estimates (Highway Links) 162 Figure 25 Scatter Plot of Modeled vs. Actual Volumes (Rail Links) 167 Figure 26 MCMIS Validation Results 171 Figure 27 24-hour Volume Distribution of Combination Trucks on Iowa Highways....176 Figure 28 Location of Highway "Screen lines" 183 Figure 29 Sensitivity of Mode Share to Highway Link Costs for STCC 201 188 Figure 30 Sensitivity of Mode Share to Rail Link Costs for STCC 201 188 Figure 31 Sensitivity of Mode Share to Highway Link Costs for STCC 204 189 Figure 32 Sensitivity of Mode Share to Rail Link Costs for STCC 204 189 Figure 33 Sensitivity of VMT to Tons per Truck for STCC 201 and 204 191 Figure 34 Sensitivity of VMT to Truck Expansion Factor for STCC 201 and 204 191 Figure 35 Sensitivity of CMT to Tons per Rail Car for STCC 201 and 204 192 Figure 36 Sensitivity of CMT to Rail Car Expansion Factor for STCC 201 and 204....192 Figure 37 Difference in Flows For 10 year Case Study 195 IX LIST OF TABLES Table 1 Freight Data Sources 55 Table 2 Rail Link Costs by Commodity 62 Table 3 Highway Link Costs by Commodity Group 67 Table 4 Commodity Groups with Highest Average Rank of Value and Weight 76 Table 5 Commodity Group with Rank in Top 10 of Value, Weight, or Employment 77 Table 6 Most Common Observed Commodity Groups in the Iowa Truck Survey 79 Table 7 Final Commodity Groups Selected for Model 84 Table 8 Summary of Disaggregation Measures 89 Table 9 Summary of 1997 CPS for Adjacent States 93 Table 10 STCG Selected for Use in the Bridge Traffic Model 94 Table 11 Variables in Mode Split Models 104 Table 12 Average Cargo Weights for Trucks 110 Table 14 Expansion Factors for the Treatment of Empties 114 Table 15 Highway Data Collection Locations 127 Table 16 Rail Data Collection Locations 131 Table 17 Fields in Highway Data Table 133 Table 18 Fields in Rail Data Table 133 Table 19 Selected Fields for Use in the Working MCMIS Census File 135 Table 20 Top Observed Carriers 140 Table 21 Location Results 141 Table 22 Percentage of Truck Trailer Type by Facility 143 Table 23 Percentage of Truck Configuration by Facility 143 X Table 24 Rail Data Summary 145 Table 25 Percentage of Car Type by Location 145 Table 26 Mode Spilt Error for Selected Calibration Run 158 Table 27 RMSE by Volume Group (Highway Links) 164 Table 28 RMSE by Volume Group (Rail Links) 167 Table 29 MCMIS Commodity Groups, STCC,