______2012/ISTWG/WKSP/002
Climate Change Challenges in the Asia Pacific
Submitted by: United States
Workshop on Climate Change Adaptation in the Asia-Pacific: Observations and Modeling Tools for Better Planning Singapore 16-17 August 2012
Climate Change Challenges in the Asia Pacific
Dr. Jack Kaye Associate Director for Research Earth Science Division Science Mission Directorate
NASA Headquarters
APEC Workshop on Climate Change Adaptation in the Asia- Pacific: Observations and Modeling Tools for Better Planning August 16, 2012 1
The Earth is a Dynamic System...
That Changes on all Time Scales 2
1 Land Cover & Biosphere
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Outline of Talk
• Introduction • Background on US Activity • Current Satellite Observations of the Earth System − Processes, Phenomena, Variability, Trends • Future Satellite Observations • International Nature of Observations • Role of non Satellite Observations • Applications and Education Aspects • Conclusions
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2 Earth as a Dynamic System
Forces acting on Earth system IMPACTS the Earth system responses
Feedbacks
Highlights of 2009 USGCRP Report: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States
• Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human induced • Climate changes are underway in the United States and are projected to grow • Widespread climate related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase • Climate change will stress water resources • Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged • Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea level rise, storm surge, and other climate related stresses • Threats to human health will increase • Climate change will interact with many social and environmental stresses • Thresholds will be crossed, leading to large changes in climate and ecosystems • Future climate change and its impacts depend on choices made today 6
3 Selected Results from 2009 Climate Assessment Report
Observed Increases in Very Heavy Precipitation (1958 to 2007)
Observed U.S. Sea Level Changes
Observed Drought Trends 1958 2007
Winter Temperature Trends 7 1975 2007
NASA Role in Administration Initiatives
NASA is the largest contributor to the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), which coordinates climate related research of 13 Federal Agencies and publishes documents, including • Strategic Plan 2012 2021 • Annual Our Changing Planet • Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States NASA also contributes to Administration initiatives in Earth Observation, Oceans, and Arctic
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4 The USGCRP Vision and Mission
Vision “A nation, globally engaged and guided by science, meeting the challenges of climate and global change. ”
Mission “To build a knowledge base that informs human responses to climate and global change through coordinated and integrated federal programs of research, education, communication, and decision support. ”
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USGCRP Strategic Plan Goals and Objectives
Goals Objectives
1. Advance 1.1 Earth System Understanding Science 1.2 Science for Adaptation and Mitigation 1.3 Integrated Observations 1.4 Integrated Modeling 1.5 Information Management and Sharing
2. Inform 2.1 Inform Adaptation Decisions Decisions 2.2 Inform Mitigation Decisions 2.3 Enhance Global Change Information
3. Conduct 3.1 Scientific Integration Sustained 3.2 Ongoing Capacity Assessments 3.3 Inform Responses 3.4 Evaluate Progress
4. Communicate 4.1 Strengthen Communication and Education Research & Educate 4.2 Reach Diverse Audiences 4.3 Increase Engagement 4.4 Cultivate Scientific Workforce
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5 Report from USGCRP Climate Adaptation Summit
Conclusions from Report: • The United States ’ response to climate change must include adaptation as well as mitigation. • The current suite of federal adaptation activities and plans lacks clear organization and is confusing to potential state, regional, and local partners and other stakeholders. Seven priorities for near term action were identified: • Developing an overarching national strategy to guide federal climate change adaptation programs. • Improving coordination of federal plans and programs. • Creating a federal climate information portal. • Creating a clearinghouse of best practices and toolkits for adaptation. • Including support for assessment in USGCRP agency budgets. • Increasing funding for research on vulnerability and impacts, including economic analyses, and pilot projects that join local, state, and regional governments and academic institutions to develop and test adaptation measures and tools. • Initiating a regional series of ongoing climate adaptation forums. 11
NASA Earth Observing Satellite Fleet 2012
6 GCOM W just joined A train this summer; CloudSat returned to A—train this spring after having left during anomaly recovery
NASA Satellite Fleet in Motion
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7 Access to Remote and Hostile Areas
The Lydonia
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Major Sources That Are Virtually Unstudied in Southeast Asia (courtesy Bob Yokelson) Brick Kilns
Trash Burning
Crop Residue Fires
Cooking Fires
8 Sea Surface Temperature: MODIS
17 Terra/MODIS, May 2001
Blended MODIS and QuikSCAT melt maps of the Greenland Ice Sheet Dorothy K. Hall* and Son V. Nghiem** *GSFC / Code 614.1, **JPL / Cal. Tech. Summary: We blended three daily products: MODIS albedo, MODIS land surface temperature (LST) and QuikSCAT (QS) melt to quantify surface melt on the Greenland Ice Sheet. The products provide remarkably consistent results showing the locations of boundaries between surface melt and frozen conditions.
The QS is more sensitive to melt than is the MODIS LST, with the QS detecting ~11% greater extent of melt, largely due to the capability of the QS to detect melt in snow near the surface as well as surface wetness.
2007 Melt Scientific significance: Before this work, it was not Season known which of the “boundaries” observed on the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet were physically meaningful melt zone boundaries, or artifacts of remote sensing. More precise measurement of melt progression and extent of melt enables improved quantification of meltwater runoff, and thus sea level (A) Minimum albedo from MOD10A1 with the limit of rise when studied over a long time period. melt from QS included. (B) Blended map showing References: Hall, D.K., S.V. Nghiem, C.B. Schaaf, N.E. DiGirolamo and G. Neumann (2009), total extent of seasonal snow melt from the MODIS “Evaluation of surface and near surface melt characteristics on the Greenland LST (766,184 km 2 ±±±8%) and QS (862,769 km 2 ±±±3%) Ice Sheet using MODIS and QuikSCAT data,” JGR - Earth Surface , 114(F04006), melt products. doi:10.1029/2009JF001287.
Nghiem, S., K. Steffen, R. Kwok and W. Y. Tsai (2001), “Detection of snowmelt regions on the Greenland ice sheet using diurnal backscatter change,” Jour. Glaciol., 47 (159), 593 547.
9 Growth of Las Vegas, NV as viewed from Landsat
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Long term ozone change measured by satellite
Our merged multi instrument time series shows that global average total column ozone has declined since the 1979/1980 reference period. The lowest ozone was observed following the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1992.
Current satellite measurements are consistent with long term ground From R. McPeters (NASA/GSFC) measurements .
10 Global Sea Level Change
Slope = 3.2 mm/year
Change in Mass in centimeters of water thickness
TRMM Precipitation from March 2010 to March 2011 relative to the previous year From Boening et al., submitted to Science
A 25 Year Stratospheric Aerosol Record based on SAGE II and CALIPSO
Mt Pinatubo QBO Wind 10 June 1991 hPa CALIPSO Backscatter converted to extinction with a lidar ratio of 50 sr 1
The 2000s had a number of moderate volcanic events including Ruang (2002), Manam (2005), Montserrat (2006), and Nevado del Ruiz Sarychev (2009) Nov. 1985
Kelut Stratospheric AOD Feb. 1990 The combined record is critical in assessing the source
of change in aerosol levels and inferring the impact of Increase of AOD stratospheric aerosol on the climate and stratospheric due to volcanic chemistry. The increase noted over the last ten years is activity primarily volcanic in origin (Vernier et al., submitted GRL 2011b) and is likely producing a “““global warming slow down ””” as suggested by Solomon et al.,2011, Science, submitted April 2011.
11 Drought Decreased NPP from 2000 2009
MODIS Data Zhao & Running 2010, Science
Northern Hemisphere Summer Land Temperature Anomalies
For Jun Jul Aug in Northern Hemisphere Land, from J. Hansen (2012) based on PNAS paper
12 Global Temperature Anomalies vs. 1951 1980 – from J. Hansen et al. PNAS (2012)
Figure 1
GRACE Studying Ground Water Depletion in NW India
Rodell et al Appeared in Nature Aug 20, 2009
• Groundwater levels declining by 1 meter every 3 years. • More than 109 cubic km of groundwater disappeared between 2002 and 2008
13 GRACE Observation of Variations of Total Water Storage (mm) in the Sacramento and GRACE Observations of San Joaquin River Basins Groundwater Depletion in California ’’’s Central Valley
Sacramento River Basin The combined Sacramento and San Joaquin drainage basins include California ’s major mountain water source (the Sierras) and its primary agricultural region (the Central Valley)
One fourth of food consumed in the U.S. is grown in the Central Valley, which accounts for one sixth of the irrigated land in the economy San Joaquin River Basin Central Valley Groundwater Storage Variations Groundwater is being used for [GRACE Total Water Storage minus NOHRSC Snow irrigation at unsustainable rates, Water Equivalent] leading to declining water tables, water shortages, decreasing crop sizes and land subsidence
GRACE data (upper panel) can quantify rates of groundwater depletion (lower panel) for the entire Central Valley in near real time, which can be used by water managers to make Jay Famiglietti, UC informed decisions regarding Center for Hydrologic water allocations Modeling, UC Irvine
IPCC Assessment: SE Asia Vulnerabilities from IPCC Table 10.11
Biodiversity: Highly vulnerable Coastal Ecosystems: Highly vulnerable Food and Fibre: Highly vulnerable Land Degradation: Highly vulnerable Settlements: Moderately vulnerable Water Resource: Moderately vulnerable
14 An Final Word on Satellite Point wise minimum and maximum of NASA constellation Observability: of aerosol satellite products SE Asia hosts very clean and polluted Reid et al., 2011 environments. Heavy cloud cover and complicated aerosol microphysics makes it one of the worlds most challenging regions for aerosol, cloud, and precipitation remote sensing and modeling. And it all covaries with meteorology and convection Cloud Climatology: Winter Monsoon MISR MODIS ISCCP CALIOP Total
High
Mid
Low
MODIS RGB with fire counts. Note Di Girolamo missed fires in Borneo
Quick View: MISR 2001 2009 Aerosol Optical Depth (Courtesy of Jianglong Zhang, UND)
Chinese pollution and dust
Indian Pollution Pan SE Asian Smoke Hanoi Superplume Thai and Myan. Pollution and Smoke Thai Pollution and Smoke Cambodia Smoke And Ho Chi Min Central Sumatra Burning Southern Kalimantan Burning Jakarta Superplume
15 SE Asia Sources Highly diverse and regionally dependent aerosol microphysics, chemistry and lifecycle
The literature varies OMI NO June Nov significantly on aerosol chem 2 and microphys. Meas: Real or artifact?
Chemistry evolution? High Pearl Organics River Delta Secondary production? High Scavenging? Biofuel in Indian Bangkok Use of organics as indicators? outflow? Plume 50 % BC Ship tracks? Flow parallels tracks makes a good signal BB: Ag, deforest, Petrochem/ peat, biofuel? ship
Jakarta/Java Superplume Clean Marine
El Niño impact on smoke from Indonesian peat fires Over 80% of Indonesian fires in the last decade occurred during El Niño. Understanding the dynamics of fire aerosol plumes (smoke) is necessary for climate and air quality studies.
Borneo
Sumatra
Analysis of 9 years of MISR data shows that: smoke plumes arise mostly from smoldering peat fires boundary layer (BL) height is a good proxy for plume height over Borneo, smoke reaches higher altitudes during dry El Niño years, when the BL is higher MISR smoke top heights agree well with CALIPSO mean extinction weighted heights, and provide substantially more spatial statistics M. G. Tosca, J. T. Randerson, C. S. Zender, D. L. Nelson, D. J. Diner, and J. A. Logan (2011). Dynamics of fire plumes and smoke clouds associated with peat and deforestation fires in Indonesia. J. Geophys. Res. 116, D08207.
16 Springtime Tropospheric Ozone over South China: Ozonesonde, Satellite (TES/Aura) Observations and Modeling Analysis
Evaluation of model ozone Evaluation of TES ozone with ozonesonde data with model simulations (Apr May 2004) (Apr May 2006) TAPTO (Apr May 2004) Ozonesonde Sites
Zhang, Y. et al., JGR 2012; Liu, H. et al., in preparation
The model simulates the ozonesonde observed variability in tropospheric ozone with fidelity. TES appears to better capture the variability in tropospheric ozone at low (vs. middle) latitudes in East Asia.
Missions in Formulation and Implementation
AQUARIUS NPP LDCM 6/10/2011 10/28/2011 1/2013 w/CONAE; SSS w/NOAA w/USGS; TIRS EOS cont., Op Met.
ICESat 2 SMAP* GPM OCO 2 April 2016 Oct 2014 Feb 2014 2013* Ice Dynamics w/CSA w/ JAXA; Precip Global CO 2 Soil Moist., Frz/Thaw * LRDs in flux because of launch vehicle failures
17 GPM Reference Concept An international satellite mission to unify and advance global precipitation measurements from dedicated and operational satellites GPM CORE Observatory (65 o) DPR (Ku-Ka band) GMI (10-183 GHz) (NASA-JAXA, LRD 2013) • Precipitation physics observatory
• Reference standard for inter-calibration of constellation precipitation measurements Partner Satellites: GCOM-W1, DMSP, Megha-Tropiques, plus MetOp, NOAA-N’, NPP, JPSS (over land) NASA & JAXA precipitation data processing systems Next generation global precipitation products with improved accuracy and consistency within a unified framework International science cooperation Radiometer Intercalibration, algorithm development, and ground validation
GPM Core Observatory Measurement Capabilities Dual-Frequency (Ku-Ka band) Precipitation Radar (DPR): Increased sensitivity (~12 dBZ) for light rain and snow detection relative to TRMM Better measurement accuracy with differential attenuation correction Detailed microphysical information (DSD mean mass diameter & particle no. density) & identification of liquid, ice, and mixed phase regions Multi-Channel (10-183 GHz) GPM Microwave Imager (GMI): Higher spatial resolution (IFOV: 6 26 km) Improved light rain & snow detection Improved signals of solid precipitation over land (especially over snow Combined Radar-Radiometer Retrieval covered surfaces) DPR & GMI together provide greater constraints 4 point calibration to serve as a on possible solutions to improve retrieval accuracy radiometeric reference for Observation based a priori cloud database for constellation radiometers constellation radiometer retrievals
18 OCO Measurement Approach
• Collect spectra of CO 2 Retrieve variations in • Validate measurements to the column averaged and O 2 absorption in ensure CO 2 accuracy of 1 - 2 reflected sunlight over CO 2 mixing ratio over ppm (0.3 - 0.5%) the globe The sunlit hemisphere
Forward Model
OCO/AIRS/GOSAT
FTS Tower
Aircraft Inverse Model
XCO2 Flask
SMAP Science Objectives
• SMAP science objectives are to provide global mapping of soil moisture and freeze/thaw state (hydrosphere state) enabling science and applications users to: − Understand processes that link the terrestrial water, energy & carbon cycles − Estimate global water and energy fluxes at the land surface − Quantify net carbon flux in boreal landscapes − Enhance weather and climate forecast skill − Develop improved flood prediction and drought monitoring capability
Primary Controls on Land Evaporation and Biosphere Primary Productivity
Soil Freeze/ Moisture Thaw
Radiation 38
19 SMAP Data Have High Value Across Agencies
SMAP Data Will Improve Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Over the Continents by Accurately Initializing Land Surface States
24-Hours Ahead With Realistic Soil Moisture Atmospheric Model Future NCEP 10 km Forecasts Buffalo NWP Domains Creek, CO SMAP Will Provide 10 km Soil Observed Rainfall Moisture Data Product Meet 0000Z to 0400Z 13/7/96 Without Realistic Soil Moisture Operational User Needs Environment Major Canada operational weather centers NOAA Weather linked to SMAP: NOAA Air Force Climate ECMWF Weather 39 A-39
Ice Cloud and land Elevation Satellite 2 (ICESat 2)
3 sets of 3 beams Micropulse lidar • density of coverage • Low energy • simultaneous • High rep rate measurement slope • 70 cm along track and elevation sampling
Ice sheet mass balance from elevation change
Sea ice thickness from freeboard
Large scale biomass from vegetation height
Waleed Abdalati, ESOC/CIRES, Univ. of Colorado, IPCC Sea Level Meeting, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, June 21 24, 2010
20 ESD Missions thru 2020
EV 2 2017 SAGE III GRACE FO 2014 Phase A 2017
All others pre-formulation, or Pre Phase A L Band SAR TBD
ASCENDS PACE SWOT NET 2020 2019 2019 Instrument Developments EV-I4 EV-I3 EV-I2 EV-I1 ~2020 ~2019 ~2018 ~2017
SAGE III on ISS ISS Inclined orbit provides excellent measurement coverage for middle and low latitude sampling. 2014 launch readiness date. SAGE III on ISS will extend the SAGE climate
record of ozone, aerosols and water vapor, SAGE III ISS in GSE providing scientists with data necessary for: • Modeling geophysical variability • Understanding how to combine various methods for measuring aerosols • Assimilation and Reconstruction of fields of long-lived species • Long term climate studies
21 The International Effort in Satellites and Global Observations for Climate
• Space based perspective provides unequalled vantage point for observing entire Earth system • Efforts of all economies are needed to provide needed breadth, resilience, and innovation • Cooperation among nations, including data sharing calibration/validation, and assessment, enhances value of all nations ’ efforts • Satellite data can support both long term climate and near term operational requirements, and be used to improve quality of life for all the world ’s citizens • Numerous entities and mechanisms exist that are facilitating this coordination
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40 Years of BUV Observations < 8 flights of SSBUV on Space Shuttle > Nimbus 4 BUV Nimbus 7 SBUV Nimbus 7 TOMS NOAA 9 SBUV 2 NOAA 11 Meteor 3 TOMS Ozone Proc. Team formed NOAA 14 GOME Earth Probe TOMS NOAA 16 1977 Amendment of Clean Air Act SCIAMACHY EOS Aura OMI GOME 2 OMPS 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Discovery of Polar O 3 Depletion
22 GOZCARDS: G lobal OZ one Chemistry And Related trace gas Data records for the Stratosphere MEaSUREs: M aking Ea rth Science data records for Use in Research Environment s
Timeline of satellite missions and instruments considered for the GOZCARDS project and the creation SAGE I of a stratospheric composition
SAGE II Earth Science Data Record (ESDR).
UARS MLS
UARS HALOE
POAM II
POAM III
SAGE III
ACE
EOS Aura MLS
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
45 Update on GOZCARDS: Lucien Froidevaux et al.
GLOBAL ALTIMETER MISSIONS
Launch Date 080808 090909 101010 111111 121212 131313 141414 151515 161616 171717 181818 191919 202020 212121 222222 Reference Missions Higher Accuracy/Medium Inclination
12/01 Jason 1 Jason-3 Europe/USA Fr./USA Jason 2 Fr./USA Jason CS Europe/USA
Complementary Missions Medium Accuracy/Higher Inclination
3/02 Sentinel 3A Europe Sentinel 3C/D ENVISAT Europe Sentinel 3B Europe Saral/AltiKa Fr./India
HY 2A China
HY 2B China
CRYOSAT 2 Europe
2/98 GFO 2 USA GFO USA
Broad Coverage Mission SWOT USA/France
Extended Design Life Approved Proposed Life Operating sw 17sep10
23 Timeline of Satellite Observations for Ocean Color
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Geostationary Air Quality Constellation Coordination: Background Geostationary orbit provides “continuous” observations (many times per day) but a single geostationary satellite can view only a portion of the globe. Several economies and space agencies are planning to launch geostationary satellites in the 2017 2022 time frame to obtain air quality measurements.
NASA GEO CAPE ESA, Eumetsat KARI, ME GEMS NOAA GOES R/S Sentinel 4 + MTG JAXA GMAP ASIA These missions share common objectives yet individually are restricted to regional relevance. Harmonization through a constellation framework will provide a global perspective otherwise impossible to achieve. Such an integrated global observing system for atmospheric composition is key to abatement strategies for air quality as laid down in various international protocols and conventions (IGACO, GEO, WMO GAW).
24 Satellite Data And Products are made Broadly Available
NASA and USGS provide Mid Decadal data set from Landsat
Digital Elevation Model from ASTER provides high resolution topography globally
MERRA provides ~25 years of assimilated atmospheric and hydrologic Direct Broadcast from Terra and Aqua provide real time data imagery and sounding data to scientists and users around the world
Examples of NASA Supported Ground Networks AGAGE NDACC
Metsahovi Changchun Potsdam Riga Mendeleevo Borowiec Herstmonceux Wettzell Zimmerwald Graz Simiez Beijing Grasse (2) Maidanak Cagliari Katzively Greenbelt San Fernando Matera Keystone (4) Monument Peak Riyadh Simosato McDonald Helwan Kunming Santiago de Cuba Haleakala
Arequipa South Africa Tahiti Yarragadee Concepcion Mt. Stromlo
Legend: NASA AERONET NASA Partner NASA Partner (Proposed) International Cooperating ILRS
TCCON
50 MPLNet
25 Trends in Montreal Protocol Gases and their Replacements
REGULATED GASES REDUCING
REPLACEMENT GASES RISING
Monthly mean mole fractions and standard deviations for selected AGAGE MONTREAL PROTOCOL gases through 2010
26 Airborne/Suborbital Campaigns Provide Global Access to Regional Processes
• Satellite/Space Data Product Calibration/Validation & Algorithm Development • Process Studies & Model Validation • Applications Development & Demonstration • Space Sensor and Remote Sensing Technology Development & Demonstration • Future capability for focused observations of persistent but finite phenomena and hazardous operations (UAVs)
Global Flood Monitoring System (GFMS)— Detection of Flooding over North Korea—in real time using satellite rainfall and a global hydrologic model (support from NASA Applied Sciences program)
http://oas.gsfc.nasa.gov/globalflood/ Adler et al. U. of Maryland
27 Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment • 111 active international partners and 136 domestic partners in the U.S.A. • Worldwide Student Climate Research Campaign was launched in fall 2011 • To emphasize student research and cross economy and cross region analysis GLOBE Asia Pacific • 16 economy Partners, with several in discussion • Currently active • 2,206 schools • 2,836 teachers • 327 trainers • 12 master trainers • Since the beginning in 1995 • 1,117,619 observations logged into GLOBE database • 820 Honor Roll Citations (66 schools in 8 economies)
Concluding Messages
• The vantage point of space provides a good approach to watch the whole planet evolve and explore the interconnections between physics, chemistry, and biology • The current and projected suite of space based environmental measurement capability enables scientific discovery and (for many parameters) monitoring, and is beimg enhanced by introduction of new technology • Current observations show significant changes in many aspects of earth system, especially in polar regions, with the potential for even more significant changes in the future • Impacts of potential climate change for civilization are significant and require strong scientific knowledge base that supports action as well as an interdisciplinarily oriented workforce • Investments in space measurements are synergistic with surface , aircraft , and balloon based measurements, along with models 56
28 NPP Results – a new “Blue Marble”
Fishing boats
NPP Commissioning Complete February 23, 2012
Carbon Dioxide as Seen from Space
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29 African Fires
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GRACE Greenland Ice Mass Results
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