___________________________________________________________________________ 2012/ISTWG/WKSP/002 Climate Change Challenges in the Asia Pacific Submitted by: United States Workshop on Climate Change Adaptation in the Asia-Pacific: Observations and Modeling Tools for Better Planning Singapore 16-17 August 2012 Climate Change Challenges in the Asia Pacific Dr. Jack Kaye Associate Director for Research Earth Science Division Science Mission Directorate NASA Headquarters APEC Workshop on Climate Change Adaptation in the Asia- Pacific: Observations and Modeling Tools for Better Planning August 16, 2012 1 The Earth is a Dynamic System... That Changes on all Time Scales 2 1 Land Cover & Biosphere 3 Outline of Talk • Introduction • Background on US Activity • Current Satellite Observations of the Earth System − Processes, Phenomena, Variability, Trends • Future Satellite Observations • International Nature of Observations • Role of non-Satellite Observations • Applications and Education Aspects • Conclusions 4 2 Earth as a Dynamic System Forces acting on Earth system IMPACTS the Earth system responses Feedbacks Highlights of 2009 USGCRP Report: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States • Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human- induced • Climate changes are underway in the United States and are projected to grow • Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase • Climate change will stress water resources • Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged • Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea-level rise, storm surge, and other climate-related stresses • Threats to human health will increase • Climate change will interact with many social and environmental stresses • Thresholds will be crossed, leading to large changes in climate and ecosystems • Future climate change and its impacts depend on choices made today 6 3 Selected Results from 2009 Climate Assessment Report Observed Increases in Very Heavy Precipitation (1958 to 2007) Observed U.S. Sea-Level Changes Observed Drought Trends 1958-2007 Winter Temperature Trends 7 1975 -2007 NASA Role in Administration Initiatives NASA is the largest contributor to the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), which coordinates climate-related research of 13 Federal Agencies and publishes documents, including • Strategic Plan 2012-2021 • Annual Our Changing Planet • Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States NASA also contributes to Administration initiatives in Earth Observation, Oceans, and Arctic 8 4 The USGCRP Vision and Mission Vision - “A nation, globally engaged and guided by science, meeting the challenges of climate and global change. ” Mission - “To build a knowledge base that informs human responses to climate and global change through coordinated and integrated federal programs of research, education, communication, and decision support. ” 9 USGCRP Strategic Plan Goals and Objectives Goals Objectives 1. Advance 1.1 Earth System Understanding Science 1.2 Science for Adaptation and Mitigation 1.3 Integrated Observations 1.4 Integrated Modeling 1.5 Information Management and Sharing 2. Inform 2.1 Inform Adaptation Decisions Decisions 2.2 Inform Mitigation Decisions 2.3 Enhance Global Change Information 3. Conduct 3.1 Scientific Integration Sustained 3.2 Ongoing Capacity Assessments 3.3 Inform Responses 3.4 Evaluate Progress 4. Communicate 4.1 Strengthen Communication and Education Research & Educate 4.2 Reach Diverse Audiences 4.3 Increase Engagement 4.4 Cultivate Scientific Workforce 10 5 Report from USGCRP Climate Adaptation Summit Conclusions from Report: • The United States ’ response to climate change must include adaptation as well as mitigation. • The current suite of federal adaptation activities and plans lacks clear organization and is confusing to potential state, regional, and local partners and other stakeholders. Seven priorities for near-term action were identified: • Developing an overarching national strategy to guide federal climate change adaptation programs. • Improving coordination of federal plans and programs. • Creating a federal climate information portal. • Creating a clearinghouse of best practices and toolkits for adaptation. • Including support for assessment in USGCRP agency budgets. • Increasing funding for research on vulnerability and impacts, including economic analyses, and pilot projects that join local, state, and regional governments and academic institutions to develop and test adaptation measures and tools. • Initiating a regional series of ongoing climate adaptation forums. 11 NASA Earth Observing Satellite Fleet - 2012 6 GCOM-W just joined A-train this summer; CloudSat returned to A—train this spring after having left during anomaly recovery NASA Satellite Fleet in Motion 14 7 Access to Remote and Hostile Areas The Lydonia 15 Major Sources That Are Virtually Unstudied in Southeast Asia (courtesy Bob Yokelson) Brick Kilns Trash Burning Crop Residue Fires Cooking Fires 8 Sea Surface Temperature: MODIS 17 Terra/MODIS, May 2001 Blended MODIS and QuikSCAT melt maps of the Greenland Ice Sheet Dorothy K. Hall* and Son V. Nghiem** *GSFC / Code 614.1, **JPL / Cal. Tech. Summary: We blended three daily products: MODIS albedo, MODIS land-surface temperature (LST) and QuikSCAT (QS) melt to quantify surface melt on the Greenland Ice Sheet. The products provide remarkably consistent results showing the locations of boundaries between surface melt and frozen conditions. The QS is more sensitive to melt than is the MODIS LST, with the QS detecting ~11% greater extent of melt, largely due to the capability of the QS to detect melt in snow near the surface as well as surface wetness. 2007 Melt Scientific significance: Before this work, it was not Season known which of the “boundaries” observed on the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet were physically meaningful melt-zone boundaries, or artifacts of remote sensing. More precise measurement of melt progression and extent of melt enables improved quantification of meltwater runoff, and thus sea-level (A) Minimum albedo from MOD10A1 with the limit of rise when studied over a long time period. melt from QS included. (B) Blended map showing References: Hall, D.K., S.V. Nghiem, C.B. Schaaf, N.E. DiGirolamo and G. Neumann (2009), total extent of seasonal snow melt from the MODIS “Evaluation of surface and near-surface melt characteristics on the Greenland LST (766,184 km 2 ±±±8%) and QS (862,769 km 2 ±±±3%) Ice Sheet using MODIS and QuikSCAT data,” JGR - Earth Surface , 114(F04006), melt products. doi:10.1029/2009JF001287. Nghiem, S., K. Steffen, R. Kwok and W.-Y. Tsai (2001), “Detection of snowmelt regions on the Greenland ice sheet using diurnal backscatter change,” Jour. Glaciol., 47 (159), 593-547. 9 Growth of Las Vegas, NV as viewed from Landsat 19 Long-term ozone change measured by satellite Our merged multi-instrument time series shows that global average total column ozone has declined since the 1979/1980 reference period. The lowest ozone was observed following the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1992. Current satellite measurements are consistent with long term ground From R. McPeters (NASA/GSFC) measurements . 10 Global Sea Level Change Slope = 3.2 mm/year Change in Mass in centimeters of water thickness TRMM Precipitation from March 2010 to March 2011 relative to the previous year From Boening et al., submitted to Science A 25-Year Stratospheric Aerosol Record based on SAGE II and CALIPSO Mt Pinatubo QBO Wind 10 June 1991 hPa CALIPSO Backscatter converted to extinction with a lidar ratio of 50 sr-1 The 2000s had a number of moderate volcanic events including Ruang (2002), Manam (2005), Montserrat (2006), and Nevado del Ruiz Sarychev (2009) Nov. 1985 Kelut Stratospheric AOD Feb. 1990 The combined record is critical in assessing the source of change in aerosol levels and inferring the impact of Increase of AOD stratospheric aerosol on the climate and stratospheric due to volcanic chemistry. The increase noted over the last ten years is activity primarily volcanic in origin (Vernier et al., submitted GRL 2011b) and is likely producing a “““global warming slow down ””” as suggested by Solomon et al.,2011, Science, submitted April 2011. 11 Drought Decreased NPP from 2000 - 2009 MODIS Data Zhao & Running 2010, Science Northern Hemisphere Summer Land Temperature Anomalies For Jun-Jul-Aug in Northern Hemisphere Land, from J. Hansen (2012) based on PNAS paper 12 Global Temperature Anomalies vs. 1951-1980 – from J. Hansen et al. PNAS (2012) Figure 1 GRACE Studying Ground Water Depletion in NW India Rodell et al Appeared in Nature Aug 20, 2009 • Groundwater levels declining by 1 meter every 3 years. • More than 109 cubic km of groundwater disappeared between 2002 and 2008 13 GRACE Observation of Variations of Total Water Storage (mm) in the Sacramento and GRACE Observations of San Joaquin River Basins Groundwater Depletion in California ’’’s Central Valley Sacramento River Basin The combined Sacramento and San Joaquin drainage basins include California ’s major mountain water source (the Sierras) and its primary agricultural region (the Central Valley) One fourth of food consumed in the U.S. is grown in the Central Valley, which accounts for one sixth of the irrigated land in the economy San Joaquin River Basin Central Valley Groundwater Storage Variations Groundwater is being used for [GRACE Total Water Storage minus NOHRSC Snow irrigation at unsustainable rates, Water Equivalent] leading to declining water tables, water shortages,