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Traffic Engineers' Report for Fiscal Year 2019 Mid-Bay Bridge Authority

MID-BAY

Mid-Bay Bridge Authority

Jacobs .

Contents Executive Summary ...... 1 1. Introduction ...... 2 2. Mid-Bay Bridge Authority System ...... 3 2.1 Traffic and Revenue Results and Comparison with Forecasts...... 3 2.2 Rebate Results ...... 5 2.3 Effect of Extraordinary Events ...... 6 3. Mid-Bay Bridge ...... 8 3.1 Traffic and Revenue Results ...... 10 3.2 Comparison with Forecast ...... 18 3.3 Effect of Extraordinary Events ...... 19 3.4 Tolls and Inflation ...... 20 4. Walter Francis Spence Parkway ...... 26 4.1 Traffic and Revenue Results ...... 28 4.2 Comparison with Forecast ...... 34 4.3 Effect of Extraordinary Events ...... 35 4.4 Tolls ...... 37 5. External Factors ...... 39 5.1 Expansion of US 331 Bridge ...... 39 5.2 Other Projects ...... 40 6. Traffic and Revenue-Related Services ...... 41

Tables

Table 1 Mid-Bay Bridge Authority System Actual vs. Forecast Toll Revenue, FY 2019 ...... 3 Table 2 Mid-Bay Bridge Authority System SunPass vs. Cash/TBP, FY 2019 ...... 3 Table 3 Mid-Bay Bridge Authority System Actual vs. Forecast Traffic, FY 2019 ...... 4 Table 4 Mid-Bay Bridge Authority System Rebate Transactions and Changes – FY 2018 and FY 2019 ...... 5 Table 5 Mid-Bay Bridge Authority System Rebate Amounts and Changes – FY 2018 and FY 2019 ...... 5 Table 6 Mid-Bay Bridge Authority System Change in Traffic by Vehicle Class ...... 6 Table 7 Mid-Bay Bridge Authority System Change in Traffic Market Share ...... 6 Table 8 Mid-Bay Bridge Authority System Changes in Toll Revenue ...... 7 Table 9 Mid-Bay Bridge Actual vs. Forecast Toll Revenue, FY 2019 ...... 8 Table 10 Mid-Bay Bridge Actual vs. Forecast Traffic, FY 2019 ...... 8 Table 11 Mid-Bay Bridge Rebate Transactions and Changes – FY 2018 and FY 2019 ...... 9 Table 12 Mid-Bay Bridge Rebate Amounts and Changes – FY 2018 and FY 2019...... 9 Table 13 Mid-Bay Bridge Quarterly Toll Revenue, FY 2019 vs. FY 2018 ...... 10 Table 14 Mid-Bay Bridge Traffic and Revenue, FY 1994-FY 2019 ...... 12 Table 15 Mid-Bay Bridge Monthly Traffic Fluctuations, FY 2019 ...... 14 Table 16 Mid-Bay Bridge Traffic and Toll Revenue, SunPass/TBP v. Cash, FY 2019...... 16 Table 17 Mid-Bay Bridge Actual and Forecasted Traffic, FY 2019...... 18 Table 18 Mid-Bay Bridge Change in Traffic by Vehicle Class ...... 19 Table 19 Mid-Bay Bridge Change in Traffic Market Share ...... 20

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Table 20 Mid-Bay Bridge Changes in Toll Revenue ...... 20 Table 21 Mid-Bay Bridge History of Toll Increases ...... 22 Table 22 Mid-Bay Bridge Passenger Car Toll Rate Adjusted to CPI ...... 23 Table 23 Mid-Bay Bridge Toll vs. Consumer Price Index (CPI) ...... 24 Table 24 Walter Francis Spence Parkway Actual vs. Forecast Toll Revenue, FY 2019 ...... 27 Table 25 Walter Francis Spence Parkway Actual vs. Forecast Traffic, FY 2019 ...... 27 Table 26 Spence Parkway Rebate Transactions and Changes – FY 2018 and FY 2019 ...... 28 Table 27 Spence Parkway Rebate Amounts and Changes – FY 2018 and FY 2019 ...... 28 Table 28 Walter Francis Spence Parkway Monthly Toll Revenue, FY 2019 vs. FY 2018 ...... 29 Table 29 Walter Francis Spence Parkway Traffic and Revenue, FY 2014-FY 2019 ...... 29 Table 30 Walter Francis Spence Parkway Monthly Traffic Fluctuations, FY 2019 ...... 31 Table 31 Walter Francis Spence Parkway Traffic and Toll Revenue, SunPass vs. TBP, FY 2019 ...... 32 Table 32 Walter Francis Spence Parkway Actual and Forecasted Traffic, FY 2019 ...... 35 Table 33 Spence Parkway Change in Traffic by Vehicle Class ...... 35 Table 34 Spence Parkway Change in Traffic Market Share ...... 36 Table 35 Spence Parkway Changes in Toll Revenue ...... 36 Table 36 Walter Francis Spence Parkway History of Toll Increases ...... 38

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Figures

Figure 1 Mid-Bay Bridge Authority System Traffic and Toll Revenue, FY 2019 ...... 4 Figure 2 Mid-Bay Bridge Quarterly Toll Revenue Fluctuations, FY 2005-FY 2019 ...... 11 Figure 3 Mid-Bay Bridge Toll Revenue Trend, FY 1994-FY 2019 ...... 11 Figure 4 Mid-Bay Bridge Average Toll Revenue Trend, FY 1994-FY 2019 ...... 14 Figure 5 Mid-Bay Bridge Monthly Traffic Fluctuations, FY 2019 ...... 15 Figure 6 Mid-Bay Bridge Traffic and Toll Revenue, FY 2019 ...... 17 Figure 7 Mid-Bay Bridge Quarterly Revenue Results, Actual vs. Forecast, FY 2019 ...... 19 Figure 8 Mid-Bay Bridge Impact of Inflation on the Cash, 2-axle Toll Rate ...... 25 Figure 9 Walter Francis Spence Parkway Quarterly Received Toll Revenue Trends, FY 2014-FY 2019 ...... 30 Figure 10 Walter Francis Spence Parkway Toll Revenue Trend, 4-Quarter Moving Average, FY 2014-FY 2019 ...... 31 Figure 11 Walter Francis Spence Parkway Monthly Traffic Fluctuations, FY 2019...... 32 Figure 12 Walter Francis Spence Parkway Traffic and Toll Revenue, SunPass vs. Toll-by-Plate, FY 2019 ...... 33 Figure 13 Walter Francis Spence Parkway Quarterly Received Revenue Results, Actual vs. Forecast, FY 2019 ...... 34

Addendum

ADDENDUM 1 - MBBA Travel Time Study

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Executive Summary This Traffic Engineers’ Annual Report for Fiscal Year (FY) 2019 looks at the traffic and revenue results for the Mid-Bay Bridge Authority’s two toll system facilities, the Mid-Bay Bridge and the Walter Francis Spence Parkway, for the period October 1, 2018 through September 30, 2019.

In FY 2019, the combined facilities of the Authority generated a total of 10,484,181 in toll transactions and a total of $26,247,029 in gross toll revenues. When the $26,247,029 is added to investment and other income of $1,211,620 Mid-Bay Bridge Authority total revenues for FY 2019 amounted to $27,458,649.

For the combined facilities, actual FY 2019 toll revenue of $26,247,029 was below the $28,461,000 forecast in March 2019 by $2,213,971 or 7.8 percent. The two primary reasons for the difference between the forecast and actual revenues were the 11-day toll suspension in October 2018 due to Hurricane Michael and the eight-day bridge closure in January 2019 (and the subsequent traffic restrictions through June 2019) due to emergency tendon repairs.

Two key events affected the traffic and toll revenue results in FY 2019:

• In October of 2018 Hurricane Michael made landfall on the Panhandle of Florida east of the Mid-Bay Bridge Authority facilities; however, by order of the Governor, tolls were suspended from Monday, October 8 at 4:00 PM through Friday, October 19 at 4:00 PM. It is estimated that the toll suspension resulted in the loss of approximately $800,000 in toll revenues. The effects of the toll suspension are covered in further detail in the main body of this report. • In addition to the toll suspension noted above, on Tuesday, January 8, 2019 at 5:00 PM the Bridge was closed by FDOT after inspections uncovered deteriorated reinforcing tendons. The Bridge was reopened to restricted traffic (i.e., two-axle vehicles and single-axle trailers only) on Wednesday, January 16, 2019 at 11:00 AM and traffic restrictions were lifted on Thursday, June 27, 2019. It is estimated that the Bridge closure and subsequent traffic restrictions resulted in the loss of approximately $1,000,000 in toll revenues. The effects of the tendon repair closure and subsequent restrictions are covered in further detail in the main body of this report.

Based on overall revenue performance in FY 2019, Jacobs does not recommend an annual toll analysis to evaluate the FY 2020 toll rate structure, because the Authority did not generate excess revenues, while meeting its toll revenue needs for FY 2019. In addition, annual debt service will continue to increase, placing greater stress on the need for toll rate reviews in the future.

Jacobs will continue to monitor traffic and revenue conditions on the Authority’s facilities and will consult with the Authority on a frequent basis, including the production of monthly reports, in case any updates to the forecasts and/or toll schedules may be warranted.

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1. Introduction Jacobs prepared this Annual Report for the Mid-Bay Bridge (Bridge) and Walter Francis Spence Parkway (Parkway) for the Authority's fiscal year that ended in September 2019 (FY 2019). It covers the annual traffic and revenue results for FY 2019 and contains Bridge data going back to July 1993, the first full month of Bridge operation and Parkway data going back to January 2014, the first month of Parkway operation.

The format of this report will first discuss the combined results of the two facilities, followed by the Bridge and Parkway results separately. The last section includes a discussion of traffic and revenue related services provided by Jacobs during FY 2019.

The Authority's revenue sources documented herein include toll revenues from both Bridge and Parkway operation, investment income, and other income.

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2. Mid-Bay Bridge Authority System

2.1 Traffic and Revenue Results and Comparison with Forecasts For the combined facilities, actual FY 2019 toll revenue collected was below the forecast for FY 2019 by $2,213,971 or 7.8 percent, as shown in Table 1:

Table 1 Mid-Bay Bridge Authority System Actual vs. Forecast Toll Revenue, FY 2019 Differential FY 2019 Actual Forecast Amount Percent Toll Revenue $26,247,029 $28,461,000 -$2,213,971 -7.8%

Full year toll revenue was $26,247,029 including Okaloosa County SunPass violations. When the $26,247,029 is added to the investment and other income of $1,211,620 Mid-Bay Bridge Authority total revenues for FY 2019 amounted to $27,458,649.

As shown in Table 2, the breakdown by vehicle classification (vehicles of three or more axles have been grouped) indicates that 93.0 percent of the total traffic was comprised of two-axle vehicles (excluding non- revenue transactions, which were conservatively accounted for as 2-axle traffic) in FY 2019, and that these vehicles produced 95.4 percent of the system’s toll revenue. Vehicles with three or more axles comprised only 1.5 percent of the total traffic producing 4.6 percent of the system’s toll revenue.

Table 2 Mid-Bay Bridge Authority System SunPass vs. Cash/TBP, FY 2019 Vehicle Traffic Collected Toll Revenue Group Volume Percent Amount Percent 2-axle SunPass 6,300,605 60.1% $ 15, 032,083 57.3% 2-axle TBP 1,298,660 12.4% $ 1,761,914 6.7% 2-axle AET (SP & TBP) 7,599,265 72.5% $ 16,793,997 64.0% 2-ax le (Cash) 2,146,112 20.5% $ 8,244,331 31.4% 2-axles (Subtotal) 9,745,377 93.0% $ 25,038,328 95.4% 3+ axles 159,098 1.5% $ 1,208,701 4.6% Subtotal 9,904,475 94.5% $ 26,247,029 100.0% Non-revenue(*) 579,706 5.5% $ - 0.0% Total 10,484,181 100% $ 26, 247,029 100% (*) Conservatively accounted for as all being 2-axle transactions.

Narrowing in on the two-axle vehicles, while the two-axle-SunPass group in FY 2019 represented 60.1 percent of the traffic mix; they produced 57.3 percent of the toll revenues due to their lower toll as compared to two-axle cash transactions. On the other hand, two-axle, Cash-payers represented 21.4 percent of the traffic mix, producing 31.4 percent of the toll revenue. It is important to note that although the TBP revenues lag due to the

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difference between the transaction date and the subsequent billing and collection of the revenue, the Authority recognizes the TBP revenues in the year in which the toll transaction occurred. The FY 2019 classification results by transaction type are shown graphically in Figure 1.

Figure 1 Mid-Bay Bridge Authority System Traffic and Toll Revenue, FY 2019

2-axle (SunPass) 60.1%

2-axle (TBP) 12.4%

2-axle (Cash) 20.5%

Non-revenue 5.5% 3+ axles 1.5%

Total Volume = 10,484,181 Transactions

2-axle (TBP) 2-axle (SunPass) 6.7% 57.3%

2-axle (Cash) 31.4%

Non-revenue 0.0% 3+ axles 4.6%

Total Revenue = $26,247,029

With respect to traffic for the combined facilities, the traffic was below the March 2019 projections by 319,819 vehicles, or 3.0 percent, as shown in Table 3. While the forecast average toll was $2.63, the actual average toll was $2.50, a difference of $0.13, or 5.0 percent. This is more than likely due to the toll suspension in October as the Bridge remained open to traffic.

Table 3 Mid-Bay Bridge Authority System Actual vs. Forecast Traffic, FY 2019 FY 2019 Actual Forecast Amount Percent Traffic 10,484,181 10,804,000 -319,819 -3.0%

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2.2 Rebate Results On January 1, 2017 (FY 2017) the threshold for rebates for frequent SunPass customers (commuters) was decreased from 41-or-more transactions per month to 32-or-more transactions per month. Due to this change, the number of transactions eligible for the rebates increased and thus, the results for FY 2019 and FY 2018 are directly comparable. As shown in Table 4, the number of rebate transactions making the trip 32-or-more times per month during FY 2019 decreased 4.7 percent from FY 2018 while infrequent transactions (less than 32 per month) increased 2.0 percent.

Table 4 Mid-Bay Bridge Authority System Rebate Transactions and Changes – FY 2018 and FY 2019

Change Trip Frequency (transactions/ month) FY18 FY19 Transactions Percent 1-31 3,606,600 3,680,508 73,908 2.0% 32-40 729,222 706,284 -22,938 -3.1% 41+ 1,735,740 1,642,367 -93,373 -5.4% 32+ 2,464,962 2,348,651 -116,311 -4.7% Total 6,071,562 6,029,159 -42,403 -0.7%

During the same period, the amount of the rebates decreased approximately 9.3 percent, as shown in Table 5.

Table 5 Mid-Bay Bridge Authority System Rebate Amounts and Changes – FY 2018 and FY 2019 Year Amount FY18 $2,258,685 FY19 $2,048,755 Amount -$209,930 Percent -9.3%

The decreases in frequent trips (and thus, the amount of the rebates) may be due to the October toll suspension and January Bridge closure (though the rebate threshold in January 2019 was adjusted to 22 trips).

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2.3 Effect of Extraordinary Events

As noted earlier, there were two key events that effected traffic and toll revenue in FY 2019:

• Hurricane Michael in October 2018 where toll collection was suspended for 11 days; and

• The nearly eight-day closure of the Bridge, and subsequent traffic restrictions through June, after inspections by FDOT uncovered deteriorated reinforcing tendons.

As a result of these events, both traffic volumes and market share (i.e., percent of each vehicle class is of the total vehicles) were affected, as shown in Table 6 and Table 7.

The Bridge closure is most evident in January and the subsequent restrictions on multi-axle vehicles through June, with lingering effects through the remainder of the year.

Table 6 Mid-Bay Bridge Authority System Change in Traffic by Vehicle Class

2-Axle Vehicles 3-Axle Vehicles 4+ Axle Vehicles All Vehicles Change Change Change Change Month FY18 FY19 Amount Percent FY18 FY19 Amount Percent FY18 FY19 Amount Percent FY18 FY19 Amount Percent October 831,897 894,330 62,433 7.5% 8,324 10,218 1,894 22.8% 10,398 14,016 3,618 34.8% 850,619 918,564 67,945 8.0% November 741,396 763,547 22,151 3.0% 7,929 8,001 72 0.9% 9,553 10,261 708 7.4% 758,878 781,809 22,931 3.0% December 744,396 748,212 3,816 0.5% 6,365 6,719 354 5.6% 8,236 9,225 989 12.0% 758,997 764,156 5,159 0.7% January 664,275 526,198 -138,077 -20.8% 7,095 3,841 -3,254 -45.9% 8,446 4,535 -3,911 -46.3% 679,816 534,574 -145,242 -21.4% February 680,615 657,096 -23,519 -3.5% 7,553 3,162 -4,391 -58.1% 8,785 3,607 -5,178 -58.9% 696,953 663,865 -33,088 -4.7% March 936,926 912,696 -24,230 -2.6% 9,283 4,524 -4,759 -51.3% 11,940 4,878 -7,062 -59.1% 958,149 922,098 -36,051 -3.8% April 863,764 888,393 24,629 2.9% 8,851 4,912 -3,939 -44.5% 11,394 5,285 -6,109 -53.6% 884,009 898,590 14,581 1.6% May 977,040 1,006,538 29,498 3.0% 9,646 5,714 -3,932 -40.8% 12,678 5,718 -6,960 -54.9% 999,364 1,017,970 18,606 1.9% June 1,059,950 1,048,614 -11,336 -1.1% 9,982 6,162 -3,820 -38.3% 13,383 6,351 -7,032 -52.5% 1,083,315 1,061,127 -22,188 -2.0% July 1,117,938 1,086,413 -31,525 -2.8% 9,972 8,846 -1,126 -11.3% 14,075 11,040 -3,035 -21.6% 1,141,985 1,106,299 -35,686 -3.1% August 957,720 950,858 -6,862 -0.7% 9,319 8,745 -574 -6.2% 12,952 11,229 -1,723 -13.3% 979,991 970,832 -9,159 -0.9% September 820,905 826,083 5,178 0.6% 7,804 8,324 520 6.7% 10,472 9,890 -582 -5.6% 839,181 844,297 5,116 0.6% Annual 10,396,822 10,308,978 -87,844 -0.8% 102,123 79,168 -22,955 -22.5% 132,312 96,035 -36,277 -27.4% 10,631,257 10,484,181 -147,076 -1.4%

Table 7 Mid-Bay Bridge Authority System Change in Traffic Market Share FY 2018 FY 2019 Change in Market Share (Percent) Month 2-Axles 3-Axles 4+ Axles Total 2-Axles 3-Axles 4+ Axles Total 2-Axles 3-Axles 4+ Axles Total October 97.8% 1.0% 1.2% 100.0% 97.4% 1.1% 1.5% 100.0% -0.4% 13.7% 24.8% 0.0% November 97.7% 1.0% 1.3% 100.0% 97.7% 1.0% 1.3% 100.0% 0.0% -2.1% 4.3% 0.0% December 98.1% 0.8% 1.1% 100.0% 97.9% 0.9% 1.2% 100.0% -0.2% 4.8% 11.3% 0.0% January 97.7% 1.0% 1.2% 100.0% 98.4% 0.7% 0.8% 100.0% 0.7% -31.2% -31.7% 0.0% February 97.7% 1.1% 1.3% 100.0% 99.0% 0.5% 0.5% 100.0% 1.4% -56.0% -56.9% 0.0% March 97.8% 1.0% 1.2% 100.0% 99.0% 0.5% 0.5% 100.0% 1.2% -49.4% -57.5% 0.0% April 97.7% 1.0% 1.3% 100.0% 98.9% 0.5% 0.6% 100.0% 1.2% -45.4% -54.4% 0.0% May 97.8% 1.0% 1.3% 100.0% 98.9% 0.6% 0.6% 100.0% 1.1% -41.8% -55.7% 0.0% June 97.8% 0.9% 1.2% 100.0% 98.8% 0.6% 0.6% 100.0% 1.0% -37.0% -51.6% 0.0% July 97.9% 0.9% 1.2% 100.0% 98.2% 0.8% 1.0% 100.0% 0.3% -8.4% -19.0% 0.0% August 97.7% 1.0% 1.3% 100.0% 97.9% 0.9% 1.2% 100.0% 0.2% -5.3% -12.5% 0.0% September 97.8% 0.9% 1.2% 100.0% 97.8% 1.0% 1.2% 100.0% 0.0% 6.0% -6.1% 0.0% Annual 97.8% 1.0% 1.2% 100.0% 98.3% 0.8% 0.9% 100.0% 0.5% -21.4% -26.4% 0.0%

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As shown in Table 8, toll revenue for the Authority system was forecast to increase 5.3 percent over the FY 2018 revenue however, actual FY 2019 toll revenue decreased 2.9 percent from FY 2018. Further discussion regarding the individual facility results are found in their respective sections of this report.

Table 8 Mid-Bay Bridge Authority System Changes in Toll Revenue Vehicle FY18 FY19 Forecast FY18 FY19 Actual Class Actual Forecast Growth Actual Actual Growth 2-Axles $25,240,684 $26,573,000 5.3% $25,240,684 $25,038,328 -0.8% 3+ Axles $1,791,345 $1,888,000 5.4% $1,791,345 $1,208,701 -32.5% All $27,032,029 $28,461,000 5.3% $27,032,029 $26,247,029 -2.9%

While forecast growth for each vehicle class was approximately 5.3 percent (assuming the same proportion of toll revenue to the total toll revenue in FY 2019 as in FY 2018), 2-axle vehicle revenue decreased only 0.8 percent from FY 2018 while 3+ axle vehicles showed a 32.5 percent decrease. Overall, FY 2019 toll revenue came in at 2.9 percent below FY 2018 toll revenue.

Offsetting a portion of the magnitude of decreases in actual growth was the fact (as noted in the Parkway section of this report) that the Parkway actual toll revenue growth exceeded that of the forecast toll revenue growth for all vehicle classes possibly due to the resolution in the delay in invoicing TBP customers as the Parkway does not collect cash tolls.

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3. Mid-Bay Bridge FY 2019 actual Bridge toll revenue was below the forecast for FY 2019 by $2,537,965 or 10.6 percent, as shown in Table 9:

Table 9 Mid-Bay Bridge Actual vs. Forecast Toll Revenue, FY 2019 Differential FY 2019 Actual Forecast Amount Percent Toll Revenue $ 21,403,035 $ 23,941,000 -$2,537,965 -10.6%

As noted earlier, the revenue results were affected by the Hurricane Michael toll suspension in October 2018 and the emergency tendon repairs from January through June 2019.

With respect to traffic, for the Mid-Bay Bridge, actual FY 2019 traffic (transactions) were below the forecast for FY 2019 by 413,288 vehicles or 5.4 percent, as shown in Table 10:

Table 10 Mid-Bay Bridge Actual vs. Forecast Traffic, FY 2019 FY 2019 Actual Forecast Amount Percent Traffic 7,270,712 7,684,000 -413,288 -5.4%

As stated earlier, the rebate threshold changed in January 2017 and thus FY 2018 and FY 2019 are directly comparable. Table 11 shows that there was a 7.1 percent decrease in the number of customers making 32-or- more trips per month while Table 12 shows a decrease of 10.3 percent in the rebate amounts, again, likely due to the toll suspension in October and the emergency tendon repairs in the first half of CY 2019.

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Table 11 Mid-Bay Bridge Rebate Transactions and Changes – FY 2018 and FY 2019

Change Trip Frequency (transactions/ month) FY18 FY19 Transactions Percent 1-31 2,473,288 2,502,008 28,720 1.2% 32-40 561,770 543,092 -18,678 -3.3% 41+ 1,521,357 1,392,711 -128,646 -8.5% 32+ 2,083,127 1,935,803 -147,324 -7.1% Total 4,556,415 4,437,811 -118,604 -2.6%

Table 12 Mid-Bay Bridge Rebate Amounts and Changes – FY 2018 and FY 2019

Rebates Change FY 2018 FY 2019 Amount Percent $2,074,012 $1,860,689 -$213,323 -10.3% The decreases in frequent trips (and thus, the amount of the rebates) may be due to the October toll suspension and January Bridge closure (though the rebate threshold in January 2019 was adjusted to 22 trips).

The following sections discuss the traffic and revenue results from Bridge operation and the relationship of the toll rates and the toll rate increases (October 2004, June 2010 and October 2015) to inflation since the opening of the Bridge and during the fifteen years since the first toll increase.

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3.1 Traffic and Revenue Results Bridge toll revenues collected in FY 2019 amounted to $21,403,035, down 6.7 percent from FY 2018. Due to the upgrade of Florida’s Turnpike Enterprise (FTE) back-office system in June 2018 to allow for the statewide operation and administration of toll collection services and the subsequent delays in receiving Toll-By-Plate revenues, actual monthly toll revenues for the last quarter of the Authority’s fiscal year 2018 were not provided until after the FY 2018 audited financial statement was published. As a result of the aforementioned back-office system issues, and the estimation of revenues for September of 2018, toll revenues are shown by quarter. A breakdown of the quarterly results is summarized in Table 13:

Table 13 Mid-Bay Bridge Quarterly Toll Revenue, FY 2019 vs. FY 2018

Total Toll Revenue Months FY 2019 FY 2018 Percent Change October - December $ 4,370,765 $ 5,266,271 -17.0% January - March $ 4,585,433 $ 5,155,800 -11.1% April - June $ 6,238,100 $ 6,525,951 -4.4% July - September $ 6,207,639 $ 5,997,717 3.5% Subtotal $ 21,401,937 $ 22,945,738 -6.7% Tolls/collections/fines $ 1,098 $ 3,009 -63.5% Grand Total $ 21,403,035 $ 22,948,747 -6.7% Tracing the percent changes shows negative to positive year-over-year revenue growth through FY 2019. In other words, the FY 2018 to FY 2019 change in revenue is lowest in the first quarter (-17.0 percent), when the October hurricane toll suspension was in place, and shows positive growth (+3.5 percent) by the fourth quarter when traffic restrictions had been removed and the peak summer traffic was arriving. For the entire fiscal year, the change in toll revenues averaged -6.7 percent as compared to FY 2018.

Jacobs will continue to monitor the impact of local economic conditions and how they affect Bridge traffic and toll revenues.

Figure 2 shows, graphically, the quarterly average daily toll revenue fluctuations from fiscal years 2005 through 2019, and Figure 3 shows the quarterly revenue fluctuations from fiscal years 1994 through 2019. As shown in Figure 2, FY 2019 toll revenues are lower than FY 2018 toll revenues for the first three quarters of the year with the gap between FY 2018 and FY 2019 narrowing as the year progresses. Superimposed on Figure 3 is the quarterly moving average of toll revenue beginning with the fourth quarter of FY 1994. This shows the steady upward growth trend in toll revenue through the summer of 2005. Note, in Figure 3, however, that the 4-quarter average line first flattened and then began slipping (downward) through May 2009, followed by a bottoming out beginning in June 2009 and continuing through May 2010 until the economy showed signs of improving as the

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Great Recession ended. The impacts of the June 2010 toll increase and the BP oil spill (during the early summer of 2010) are clearly visible, as well as that of the Authority’s first toll increase in October 2004 (FY 2005). Towards the end of FY 2012, and continuing into early FY 2014, the graph shows a slight upward turn. Beginning in the latter part of FY 2014 and continuing into FY 2015, this upward turn increases as the moving average line shows a sharper upward trend resulting from stronger summer season traffic and the opening of the Spence Parkway. Though the decrease due to the toll suspension and Bridge closure can be seen on the quarterly trend line. Jacobs will continue to monitor the toll revenue trends.

Figure 2 Mid-Bay Bridge Quarterly Toll Revenue Fluctuations, FY 2005-FY 2019

$78,000 $74,000 $70,000 _.-::::;;- -- w $66,000 I :, ~ .,,,,.,.,..... z $62,000 .--- w $58,000 __,,,,.. -- a:; a: $54,000 ------' 5 $50,000 ...$46,000 - --- ~ $42,000 --- <( -- - C $38,000 w l!) $34,000 - <( ffi $30,000 > $26,000 <( $22,000 $18,000 $14,000 $10,000 OCT-DEC JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP - 2005 --- 2006 -e- 2007 - 2= -- 2009 -- 2010 ~ 2011 ~ 2012 ~ 2013 ~ 2014 --- 2015 2016 ~ 2017 ~ 2018 ~ 2019

Figure 3 Mid-Bay Bridge Toll Revenue Trend, FY 1994-FY 2019

$80,000

$70,000 ., ::, $60,000 .,C .,> a: $50,000 ~ ~ $40,000 ·;;; '; $30,000 [!" ~ $20,000 <( $10,000

$0

- 1st toll increase October-2004 - 2nd toll increase June-2010 - 3rd toll increase October-20 15 -+- Quarterly -- 4-Quarters Moving Average

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Table 14 lists the Bridge annual traffic (annual volume and Annual Average Daily Traffic, or AADT) and revenue record starting in FY 1994, its first full year of operation:

Table 14 Mid-Bay Bridge Traffic and Revenue, FY 1994-FY 2019 Traffic Average Toll(*) Toll Revenue Fiscal Year Annual Volume AADT AADT Growth 1994 1,896,661 5,196 $ 1.689 $ 3,204,321 1995 2,513,848 6,887 32.5% $ 1.624 $ 4,083,361 1996 3,043,997 8,317 20.8% $ 1.620 $ 4,930,014 1997 3,402,779 9,323 12.1% $ 1.591 $ 5,414,698 1998 3,695,064 10,123 8.6% $ 1.586 $ 5,859,643 1999 4,056,689 11,114 9.8% $ 1.610 $ 6,531,816 2000 4,463,449 12,195 9.7% $ 1.558 $ 6,952,118 2001 4,518,228 12,379 1.5% $ 1.527 $ 6,900,307 2002 5,161,898 14,142 14.2% $ 1.517 $ 7,829,708 2003 5,945,318 16,289 15.2% $ 1.502 $ 8,931,783 2004 6,918,521 19,711 21.0% $ 1.465 $ 10,135,202 2005 7,491,342 21,108 7.1% $ 1.943 $ 14,554,036 2006 7,627,382 20,897 -1.0% $ 1.920 $ 14,648,308 2007 7,462,543 20,445 -2.2% $ 1.887 $ 14,078,716 2008 7,050,496 19,369 -5.3% $ 1.854 $ 13,068,488 2009 6,836,939 18,731 -3.3% $ 1.864 $ 12,741,472 2010 6,638,505 18,188 -2.9% $ 2.029 $ 13,469,839 2011 6,533,899 17,901 -1.6% $ 2.403 $ 15,702,572 2012 6,542,990 17,877 -0.1% $ 2.410 $ 15,765,967 2013 6,586,458 18,070 1.1% $ 2.411 $ 15,881,722 2014 6,846,939 18,852 4.3% $ 2.398 $ 16,415,891 2015 7,370,448 20,193 7.1% $ 2.396 $ 17,657,326 2016 7,207,105 19,692 -2.5% $ 3.195 $ 23,028,055 2017 7,355,314 20,152 2.3% $ 3.134 $ 21,973,783 2018 7,487,673 20,514 1.8% $ 3.065 $ 22,948,747 2019 7,270,712 19,920 -2.9% $ 2.944 $ 21,403,035 (*) The average toll excludes toll suspension traffic but includes non-revenue traffic.

The global economic slowdown was the principal contributor to the decline in traffic on the Mid-Bay Bridge during FY 2007-2009. The reduced construction activity and the general economic slowdown impacted truck traffic (3+ axles) in particular during the FY 2007-2009 period. The 2.9 percent decline in FY 2010 reflected the BP oil spill and the economic impact and the elasticity impact of four months at the higher tolls implemented the same year. The 1.6 percent decline in FY 2011 reflected the elasticity impact of eight months at the higher tolls along with the recovering economy and the residual impact of the BP oil spill. The leveling of the traffic trend in FY 2012 and FY 2013 reflects the end of the slippage resulting from the previous events. The strong (4.3 percent) growth in FY 2014, coupled with the even stronger growth in FY 2015 (7.1 percent) is attributable to the strong peak (summer) season traffic, coupled with the opening of the Spence Parkway. The 2.3 percent growth from 2016 to 2017 includes the traffic that crossed the Bridge during the toll suspension in September 2017. The 1.8 percent growth in traffic from FY 2017 to FY 2018 is moderated by the higher (toll-free) traffic during the FY

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2017 toll suspension period while the decrease in traffic from FY 2018 to FY 2019 reflects the hurricane impacts and Bridge closure (and subsequent traffic restrictions).

Referring to Table 11, the gradual reduction in the average toll from $1.689 in FY 1994 to $1.465 in FY 2004 reflects the increasing proportion of commuters (at a lower toll rate) in the traffic mix, especially with the elimination of the trip "threshold" when the Authority switched from coupon books to SunPass in June 1999. The increase in the average toll to $1.943 in FY 2005 (+32.6 percent) is the result of the October 2004 toll increase (from $2.00 to $2.50 for passenger vehicles). Once having reached the $1.943 level in FY 2005, the average toll then declined to $1.854 in FY 2008, again reflecting the increasing proportion of commuters in the traffic mix and the reduced level of 3+ axle vehicles relative to the two-axle group. The average toll increased slightly to $1.864 in FY 2009; and then, with the toll increase in June (from $2.50 to $3.00 for passenger vehicles), the average toll increased to $2.029 in FY 2010. In FY 2011, the average toll increased to $2.403, reflecting the full 12 months at the higher toll rates, while the average toll in FY 2012 increased slightly, from the FY 2011 average toll, to $2.410 and remained at the FY 2012 level of $2.410 in FY 2013. The average toll slipped slightly in FY 2014 to $2.398, reflecting increased SunPass usage relative to cash payers while in FY 2015 the average toll again slipped slightly, indicating continuing increased usage of SunPass relative to cash payers. With the restructuring of the toll schedule in FY 2016, the average toll increased to $3.195. In January 2017 the threshold required to receive a frequent user rebate was decreased from 41-or-more trips per month to 32-or-more trips per month, resulting in the average toll decreasing to $3.135. The $3.135 average toll excludes non-revenue vehicles due to the higher than normal number as a result of the Hurricane Irma toll suspension. Including non-revenue vehicles, the FY 2017 average toll was $2.987. In FY 2018 the average toll (including non-revenue vehicles) was $3.065. This is as a result of the large decrease in non-revenue transactions following the large number of non-revenue transactions during the prior year toll suspension for Hurricane Irma, as well as increases in both 2-axle cash and 3+ axle vehicle revenues. The average toll in FY 2019 was $2.944, reflecting the Hurricane Michael toll suspension and reduced transactions during the Bridge tendon repairs. Figure 4 shows the average toll trend from FY 1995 through FY 2019.

The events that impacted the average toll are shown in Figure 4 and include: the introduction of SunPass in June of 1999 (FY 1999), the toll increase in October 2004 (FY 2005), the toll increase in June 2010 (FY 2010), the toll increase in October 2015 (FY 2016), the trip threshold reduction in January 2017 and the previously mentioned issues that occurred in FY 2019. Prior to each of these events, with the exception of the period immediately prior to the toll increase in June 2010, the average toll had been trending downward with the relative increase in SunPass usage. Because the second toll increase (in June 2010) was implemented three quarters the way in to the fiscal year (as opposed to at the beginning of the fiscal year, as had been the case with the first toll increase), the average toll continued to trend sharply upward through FY 2011, finally leveling off in FY 2012 and remaining at the same level through FY 2013 and decreasing slightly in FY 2014 and again in FY 2015. As previously noted, in October of 2015 (FY 2016) a third toll increase was implemented and in January 2017 the trip threshold reduction was implemented. This is discussed later in this report.

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Figure 4 Mid-Bay Bridge Average Toll Revenue Trend, FY 1994-FY 2019

$3.40 $3.20 ,--...... $3.00 "' $2.80 I I $2.60 , $2.40 $2.20 I I $2.00 / $1.80 ,- I $1.60 -- $1.40 - $1.20 $1.00 ,-.. st "' "' r-- 00 0\ 0 ... N m "' "' r-- 00 0\ 0...... N...... m ...st "'... "'...... 00 ...0\ 8l 8l 8l ~ ~ ~ g 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...... -< N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N

- SunPass Introd uced June-1999 - 1st toll increase October-2004 - 2nd to ll increase June-2010 - 3rd toll increase Octobe r-2015 - Trip Thres hold Reduction (41+ trips to 32+ trips) January-2017 - Average Toll

Like many facilities, the Mid-Bay Bridge exhibits a definite seasonality pattern with the greatest amount of traffic occurring during the tourist season (Memorial Day to mid-August) and the lowest traffic volumes occurring during the winter months. The FY 2019 monthly traffic fluctuations in terms of Average Daily Traffic, or ADT, are shown in Table 15. The monthly toll revenues are not indicated due to the back-office upgrade issues noted earlier.

Table 15 Mid-Bay Bridge Monthly Traffic Fluctuations, FY 2019 Traffic Month Monthly Ratio ADT / Volume Percent of Year ADT AADT October 634,231 8.7% 20,459 1.03 November 557,185 7.7% 18,573 0.93 December 556,506 7.7% 17,952 0.90 January 371,243 5.1% 11,976 0.60 February 473,963 6.5% 16,927 0.85 March 635,267 8.7% 21,176 1.06 April 621,568 8.5% 20,719 1.04 May 699,223 9.6% 22,556 1.13 June 719,131 9.9% 23,971 1.20 July 751,221 10.3% 24,233 1.22 August 665,952 9.2% 21,482 1.08 September 585,222 8.0% 19,507 0.98 Total 7,270,712 100% 19,920 1.00

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As shown in Table 12 and graphically in Figure 5, July and January were the high and low traffic months, respectively, in both absolute volume and terms of ADT. September was the closest to being an average month in FY 2019 with an ADT to AADT ratio of 0.98.

As stated in previous annual reports, the traffic pattern is largely due to tourist travel and is quite unlike patterns in south Florida, where the winter season generates the highest traffic levels and March is normally the highest month.

Figure 5 Mid-Bay Bridge Monthly Traffic Fluctuations, FY 2019

.30

1.20

1.10

5 1.00 <( <( ~ c 0.90 <( 0 ·:, ,. 0.80 "' 0.70

0.60

0.50 October Novem ber December January February March April May June July August September

Table 16 shows the breakdown by vehicle classification (vehicles of three or more axles have been grouped) indicates that 95.2 percent of the Bridge traffic was comprised of two-axle vehicles in FY 2019 (excluding non- revenue transactions, which were conservatively accounted for as 2-axle traffic), and that these vehicles produced 96.0 percent of the Bridge's toll revenue. Vehicles with three or more axles comprised 1.3 percent of the total traffic and produced 4.0 percent of the Bridge’s toll revenue.

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Table 16 Mid-Bay Bridge Traffic and Toll Revenue, SunPass/TBP v. Cash, FY 2019 Vehicle Traffic Average Toll Revenue Group Volume Percent Toll Amount Percent 2-axle SunPass 4,523,953 62.2% $2.643 $ 11,956,610 55.9% 2-axl e TBP 250,368 3.4% $1.375 $ 344,165 1.6% 2-axle AET (SP & TBP) 4,774,321 65.7% $2.576 $ 12,300,775 57.5% 2-axle (Cash) 2,146,112 29.5% $3.842 $ 8,244,331 38.5% 2-axles (Subtotal) 6,920,433 95.2% $2.969 $ 20,545,106 96.0% 3+ axles 94,220 1.3% $9.106 $ 857,929 4.0% Subtotal 7,014,653 96.5% $3.051 $ 21,403,035 100.0% Non-revenue(*) 256,059 3.5% Total 7,270,712 100% $2.944 $ 21,403,035 100.0% (*) Conservatively accounted for as all being 2-axle transactions.

While the two-axle-SunPass group in FY 2019 represented 62.2 percent of the traffic mix, they generated 55.9 percent of the toll revenues due to their lower toll. On the other hand, two-axle, Cash-payers represented 29.5 percent of the traffic mix, generating 38.5 percent of the toll revenue. The FY 2019 classification results are shown graphically in Figure 6.

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Figure 6 Mid-Bay Bridge Traffic and Toll Revenue, FY 2019

2-axle (SunPass) 62.2%

2-axle (TBP) 3.4%

Non-revenue 2-axle (Cash) 3.5% 3+ axles 29.5% 1.3%

Total Volume = 7,270,712 Transactions

2-axle (TBP) 2-axle (SunPass) 1.6% 55.9%

2-axle (Cash) 38.5%

Non-revenue 0.0% 3+ axles 4.0% Total Revenue = $21,403,035

A rebate program was introduced in FY 2016 which allowed for a discounted toll of $2.00 per trip for 2-axle vehicle with SunPass that completed 41-or-more trips in a month. Subsequently, the threshold was lowered in January 2017 (FY 2017) to 32-or-more trips in a month. These rebates accounted for $1,860,689 which are being credited to Bridge customers, lowering the toll revenue collected from $23,263,724 to $21,403,035.

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3.2 Comparison with Forecast FY 2019 actual Bridge toll revenue of $21,403,035 was below the $23,941,000 forecast for FY 2019 by $2,537,965 or 10.6 percent.

Figure 7 shows the actual revenue results alongside the forecasted amounts for FY 2019. It should be noted that the first and second quarters (October through March) revenues fell short of the forecast by in part due to the hurricane and tendon repair issues.

With respect to traffic, the actual 7,270,712 vehicles for the Mid-Bay Bridge, were below the forecast for FY 2019 of 7,684,000 vehicles by 413,288 vehicles or 5.4 percent, as shown in Table 17.

Table 17 Mid-Bay Bridge Actual and Forecasted Traffic, FY 2019 Traffic Difference Month Actual Forecast Volume Percent October 634,231 618,800 15,431 2.5% November 557,185 562,300 -5,115 -0.9% December 556,506 575,700 -19,194 -3.3% January 371,243 511,000 -139,757 -27.3% February 473,963 519,200 -45,237 -8.7% March 635,267 639,300 -4,033 -0.6% April 621,568 686,500 -64,932 -9.5% May 699,223 716,300 -17,077 -2.4% June 719,131 763,500 -44,369 -5.8% July 751,221 798,400 -47,179 -5.9% August 665,952 692,700 -26,748 -3.9% September 585,222 600,300 -15,078 -2.5% Total 7,270,712 7,684,000 -413,288 -5.4%

As noted above, both toll revenues and traffic for the Bridge were below forecast due to the hurricane and tendon repair issues. In addition, it should also be noted that the Friday of Labor Day weekend of 2019 fell in August. Thus, if the August and September actual and forecast traffic figures are combined, then the actual traffic was only 3.2 percent below forecast.

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Figure 7 Mid-Bay Bridge Quarterly Revenue Results, Actual vs. Forecast, FY 2019

$8,000,000

$7,000,000

$6,000,000

$5,000,000 II> :::s C: II> > II> $4,000,000 a: 0 I- $3,000,000

$2,000,000

$1,000,000

$0 October - December January - Mar ch Apri l - June July - September ■ Actua l Toll Revenue ■ Forecasted Revenu e

3.3 Effect of Extraordinary Events

The Bridge closure and subsequent multi-axle vehicle traffic restrictions had a large impact on revenues, as shown in Table 18, Table 19 and Table 20.

Table 18 Mid-Bay Bridge Change in Traffic by Vehicle Class

2-Axle Vehicles 3-Axle Vehicles 4+ Axle Vehicles All Vehicles Change Change Change Change Month FY18 FY19 Amount Percent FY18 FY19 Amount Percent FY18 FY19 Amount Percent FY18 FY19 Amount Percent October 591,236 620,210 28,974 4.9% 5,075 5,938 863 17.0% 6,251 8,083 1,832 29.3% 602,562 634,231 31,669 5.3% November 537,635 546,434 8,799 1.6% 4,884 4,670 -214 -4.4% 5,869 6,081 212 3.6% 548,388 557,185 8,797 1.6% December 552,041 547,133 -4,908 -0.9% 3,944 3,962 18 0.5% 5,050 5,411 361 7.1% 561,035 556,506 -4,529 -0.8% January 488,282 367,541 -120,741 -24.7% 4,132 1,723 -2,409 -58.3% 5,136 1,979 -3,157 -61.5% 497,550 371,243 -126,307 -25.4% February 495,640 471,184 -24,456 -4.9% 4,505 1,474 -3,031 -67.3% 5,397 1,305 -4,092 -75.8% 505,542 473,963 -31,579 -6.2% March 656,723 631,145 -25,578 -3.9% 5,536 2,193 -3,343 -60.4% 7,052 1,929 -5,123 -72.6% 669,311 635,267 -34,044 -5.1% April 610,531 616,918 6,387 1.0% 5,506 2,404 -3,102 -56.3% 6,753 2,246 -4,507 -66.7% 622,790 621,568 -1,222 -0.2% May 684,950 693,856 8,906 1.3% 5,888 2,849 -3,039 -51.6% 7,481 2,518 -4,963 -66.3% 698,319 699,223 904 0.1% June 730,275 713,088 -17,187 -2.4% 5,958 3,083 -2,875 -48.3% 7,926 2,960 -4,966 -62.7% 744,159 719,131 -25,028 -3.4% July 763,526 739,831 -23,695 -3.1% 5,924 5,040 -884 -14.9% 8,233 6,350 -1,883 -22.9% 777,683 751,221 -26,462 -3.4% August 662,234 654,517 -7,717 -1.2% 5,327 4,948 -379 -7.1% 7,498 6,487 -1,011 -13.5% 675,059 665,952 -9,107 -1.3% September 574,645 574,635 -10 0.0% 4,508 4,793 285 6.3% 6,122 5,794 -328 -5.4% 585,275 585,222 -53 0.0% Annual 7,347,718 7,176,492 -171,226 -2.3% 61,187 43,077 -18,110 -29.6% 78,768 51,143 -27,625 -35.1% 7,487,673 7,270,712 -216,961 -2.9%

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Table 19 Mid-Bay Bridge Change in Traffic Market Share FY 2018 FY 2019 Change in Market Share (Percent) Month 2-Axles 3-Axles 4+ Axles Total 2-Axles 3-Axles 4+ Axles Total 2-Axles 3-Axles 4+ Axles Total October 98.1% 0.8% 1.0% 100.0% 97.8% 0.9% 1.3% 100.0% -0.3% 11.2% 22.9% 0.0% November 98.0% 0.9% 1.1% 100.0% 98.1% 0.8% 1.1% 100.0% 0.0% -5.9% 2.0% 0.0% December 98.4% 0.7% 0.9% 100.0% 98.3% 0.7% 1.0% 100.0% -0.1% 1.3% 8.0% 0.0% January 98.1% 0.8% 1.0% 100.0% 99.0% 0.5% 0.5% 100.0% 0.9% -44.1% -48.4% 0.0% February 98.0% 0.9% 1.1% 100.0% 99.4% 0.3% 0.3% 100.0% 1.4% -65.1% -74.2% 0.0% March 98.1% 0.8% 1.1% 100.0% 99.4% 0.3% 0.3% 100.0% 1.3% -58.3% -71.2% 0.0% April 98.0% 0.9% 1.1% 100.0% 99.3% 0.4% 0.4% 100.0% 1.2% -56.3% -66.7% 0.0% May 98.1% 0.8% 1.1% 100.0% 99.2% 0.4% 0.4% 100.0% 1.2% -51.7% -66.4% 0.0% June 98.1% 0.8% 1.1% 100.0% 99.2% 0.4% 0.4% 100.0% 1.0% -46.5% -61.4% 0.0% July 98.2% 0.8% 1.1% 100.0% 98.5% 0.7% 0.8% 100.0% 0.3% -11.9% -20.2% 0.0% August 98.1% 0.8% 1.1% 100.0% 98.3% 0.7% 1.0% 100.0% 0.2% -5.8% -12.3% 0.0% September 98.2% 0.8% 1.0% 100.0% 98.2% 0.8% 1.0% 100.0% 0.0% 6.3% -5.3% 0.0% Annual 98.1% 0.8% 1.1% 100.0% 98.7% 0.6% 0.7% 100.0% 0.6% -27.5% -33.1% 0.0%

Table 20 Mid-Bay Bridge Changes in Toll Revenue Vehicle FY18 FY19 Forecast FY18 FY19 Actual Class Actual Forecast Growth Actual Actual Growth 2-Axles $21,465,862 $22,394,000 4.3% $21,465,862 $20,545,106 -4.3% 3+ Axles $1,482,885 $1,547,000 4.3% $1,482,885 $857,929 -42.1% All $22,948,747 $23,941,000 4.3% $22,948,747 $21,403,035 -6.7% While forecast growth for each vehicle class was 4.3 percent (assuming the same proportion of toll revenue to the total toll revenue in FY 2019 as in FY 2018), 2-axle vehicle revenue decreased only 4.3 percent from FY 2018 while 3+ axle vehicles showed a 42.1 percent decrease. Overall, FY 2019 toll revenue came in at 6.7 percent below FY 2018 toll revenue.

3.4 Tolls and Inflation During the previous 26 years that the Mid-Bay Bridge has been in operation (FY 1994 – FY 2019) there have been three toll rate increases:

1. October 2004 (FY 2005);

2. June 2010 (FY 2010); and

3. October 2015 (FY 2016).

The toll rate increase of October 2004 increased the base toll (2-Axle/Cash) 25 percent ($0.50) from the opening day toll of $2.00 to $2.50 while the second toll increase raised the base toll an additional $0.50 to $3.00, or 20 percent. SunPass tolls for 2-axle vehicles also increased $0.50, or 50 percent, from $1.00 to $1.50 in October 2004, and an additional $0.50, or 33 percent, in June 2010.

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Effective October 1, 2015 (FY 2016) the base (2-axle) tolls were increased on the Mid-Bay Bridge as follows:

Mid-Bay Bridge: • Cash – $4.00 ($1.00, or 33 percent increase) • SunPass (commercial accounts along with infrequent personal account users, those making 40- or-less trips per month per account) – $3.00 ($1.00, or 50 percent increase) • SunPass (frequent personal account users, those making 41-or-more trips per month) – $2.00 (no increase), issued in the form of a rebate Three-or-more axle vehicles (regardless of the payment method) pay tolls calculated using the “N minus 1” method (where “N” is the number of axles on the vehicle) and increase at the rate of $4.00 per axle over the $4.00 cash two-axle toll on the Bridge.

As noted earlier, effective January 1, 2017 the threshold for frequent personal account users was lowered to 32- or-more trips per month.

Table 21 shows the history of toll increases, including the absolute dollar increases and percentage change amounts in the toll rates, on the Mid-Bay Bridge.

The higher percentage increases for commercial account and non-frequent user SunPass tolls were implemented in order to maintain the same dollar amount of the discount from the cash/Toll-by-Plate toll rate while the toll rates for frequent customers were not increased so as to minimize the impact on local residents and employees who may be using the facilities to commute on a daily basis. With the continuation of the $1.00 discount on the Bridge, the SunPass/Cash toll ratios increased from 50 percent (at opening) to 60 percent (effective October 2004) to 67 percent (effective June 2010) and then to 75 percent for commercial and infrequent customers (effective October 2015).

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Table 21 Mid-Bay Bridge History of Toll Increases

Toll Rates Toll Rates Toll Rates Toll Rates Effective June Increase Effective Increase Effective Increase Effective 1993 October 2004 June 2010 October 2015 Vehicle Group(1) (Opening)(2) Amount Percent (FY2005) Amount Percent (FY2010) Amount Percent (FY2016) 2 Axles/SunPass (Frequent Customer)(3) $ 1.00 $ 0.50 50% $ 1.50 $ 0.50 33% $ 2.00 $ 2.00 2 Axles/SunPass (Infrequent Customer)(4) $ 1.00 $ 0.50 50% $ 1.50 $ 0.50 33% $ 2.00 $ 1.00 50% $ 3.00 2 Axles/Cash $ 2.00 $ 0.50 25% $ 2.50 $ 0.50 20% $ 3.00 $ 1.00 33% $ 4.00 3 Axles $ 4.00 $ 1.00 25% $ 5.00 $ 1.00 20% $ 6.00 $ 2.00 33% $ 8.00 4 Axles $ 6.00 $ 1.50 25% $ 7.50 $ 1.50 20% $ 9.00 $ 3.00 33% $ 12.00 5 Axles $ 8.00 $ 2.00 25% $ 10.00 $ 2.00 20% $ 12.00 $ 4.00 33% $ 16.00 6 Axles $ 10.00 $ 2.50 25% $ 12.50 $ 2.50 20% $ 15.00 $ 5.00 33% $ 20.00 Add'l Axle (per axle) $ 2.00 $ 0.50 25% $ 2.50 $ 0.50 20% $ 3.00 $ 1.00 33% $ 4.00 (1) Ticket book payment option not shown (2) SunPass Rate was introduced in 1999 (3) The frequent customer discount was extended to more customers (i.e., from 41+ trips per month to 32+ trips per month) on January 1, 2017 (FY2017) (4) Differentiation between frequent and infrequent customers did not occur until FY2016

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With respect to inflation, the toll increases have generally kept pace with inflation as measured by the rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and as summarized in Table 22 and shown graphically in Figure 8.

Table 22 Mid-Bay Bridge Passenger Car Toll Rate Adjusted to CPI Actual Toll Rate Tolls Adjusted to 1994 Dollars SunPass Consumer SunPass Year Cash Frequent SunPass Price Index(*) Cash Frequent SunPass 1994 $2.00 145.800 $2.00 1995 $2.00 149.800 $1.95 1996 $2.00 154.500 $1.89 1997 $2.00 157.500 $1.85 1998 $2.00 159.500 $1.83 1999 $2.00 $1.00 163.200 $1.79 $0.89 2000 $2.00 $1.00 168.500 $1.73 $0.87 2001 $2.00 $1.00 172.200 $1.69 $0.85 2002 $2.00 $1.00 174.200 $1.67 $0.84 2003 $2.00 $1.00 178.300 $1.64 $0.82 2004 $2.00 $1.00 182.800 $1.60 $0.80 2005 $2.50 $1.50 192.000 $1.90 $1.14 2006 $2.50 $1.50 195.800 $1.86 $1.12 2007 $2.50 $1.50 201.697 $1.81 $1.08 2008 $2.50 $1.50 212.650 $1.71 $1.03 2009 $2.50 $1.50 208.912 $1.74 $1.05 2010 $3.00 $2.00 211.775 $2.07 $1.38 2011 $3.00 $2.00 220.371 $1.98 $1.32 2012 $3.00 $2.00 225.052 $1.94 $1.30 2013 $3.00 $2.00 227.876 $1.92 $1.28 2014 $3.00 $2.00 231.762 $1.89 $1.26 2015 $3.00 $2.00 230.913 $1.89 $1.26 2016 $4.00 $2.00 $3.00 234.069 $2.49 $1.25 $1.87 2017 $4.00 $2.00 $3.00 239.649 $2.43 $1.22 $1.83 2018 $4.00 $2.00 $3.00 243.640 $2.39 $1.20 $1.80 2019 $4.00 $2.00 $3.00 246.891 $2.36 $1.18 $1.77 Ratio: 2019/First Year 2.00 1.00 3.00 1.69 1.18 0.95 1.98 (*) As of September

As shown in Table 22, the first two toll increases resulted in a base toll (cash toll) that has increased at less than the inflation adjusted toll rate, however, with the third toll increase, the 2-axle base toll was above the inflation-adjusted toll rate. As shown in Figure 8, the cash toll rate on the bridge had become a better “buy” over time as the inflation-adjusted toll decreases until such time that there is a toll rate adjustment, which occurred in October 2015.

With respect to inflation, the toll increases have generally kept pace with inflation as measured by the rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and as summarized in Table 23 and shown graphically in Figure 8. The SunPass and SunPass frequent rates are a substantial savings to the base rate (25%, 50%) and are a great value even when adjusted for inflation.

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Table 23 Mid-Bay Bridge Toll vs. Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Actual Toll Rate Tolls Adjusted to 1994 Dollars SunPass SunPass Year Cash Frequent SunPass Cash Frequent SunPass 1994 $2.00 $2.00 1999 $2.00 $1.00 $1.79 $0.89 2005 $2.50 $1.50 $1.90 $1.14 2010 $3.00 $2.00 $2.07 $1.38 2016 $4.00 $2.00 $3.00 $2.49 $1.25 $1.87

As shown above, the toll increases have resulted in tolls approximately equal to what the toll would have been had there been inflation adjustments in the toll rate based on the increase in the CPI.

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Figure 8 Mid-Bay Bridge Impact of Inflation on the Cash, 2-axle Toll Rate

$3.20 ,...... $3.00 $2.80 I - $2.60 $2.40 / $2.20 --, $2.00 -- -- ...... I , $1.80 / / - $1.60 - 1...,- $1.40 - I/ - $1.20 $1.00 .,, 00 0 rl M 00 0 rl M .,, .... 00 "' .,, "' rl rl "'rl rl rl rl rl rl rl 8l 8l 8l"' 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 "' 8 0 0 0 0 0 0"' 0 0 0"' rl rl rl "' "' "' "' "' "' "' "' "' "' "' "' "' "' "' "' "'

- sunPass Introduced June-1999 - 1st to ll increase October-2004 - 2nd toll increase June-2010 - 3rd toll increase October-2015 - Trip Threshold Reduct ion (41+ trips to 32+ trips) January-2017 -- Average Toll -- Tolls Adjusted to 1994 Dollars -- 1994 Toll Adju sted to Future Year

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4. Walter Francis Spence Parkway The Walter Francis Spence Parkway (Parkway) was constructed in three phases as follows:

• Phase 1: Mid-Bay Bridge to Range Road. This section was completed and opened to SR 20 in May 2011 and to Range Road in September 2011;

• Phase 2: Range Road to State Road 285; and

• Phase 3: State Road 285 to State Road 85.

The Authority combined Phases 2 and 3 of the Parkway (Range Road to SR 85) into a single contract to construct both phases concurrently. These two sections were completed and opened to traffic from Range Road to SR 85, on January 4, 2014 with toll collection commencing two days later, on January 6, 2014.

SR 293, including the Parkway, is approximately 15.5 miles in length, with the Parkway being 11 miles in length and running from the toll plaza (at the north end of the bridge), north and west around Niceville, to SR 85. The Parkway has grade separated interchanges at Lakeshore Drive (for the Bluewater Bay Community), SR 20, Range Road, SR 285 and SR 85, along with an at-grade intersection with the Forest Road Extension and a second one at Town Center Boulevard.

The Parkway consists of four lanes from the Bridge to Range Road tapering down to two lanes north of Range Road and continuing as a two-lane expressway to SR 85 (except at the All-Electronic toll gantry, where it widens out to four lanes). When traffic warrants, the two-lane section is envisioned to be expanded to four lanes (the present right-of-way will accommodate the four lanes).

Unlike the Mid-Bay Bridge, toll collection on the Parkway is accomplished by means of all-electronic tolling (AET) at a single toll gantry located between the Range Road interchange and the Town Center Boulevard intersection. Motorists without a SunPass transponder have their license plate read by video cameras and are sent an invoice via the mail. This type of toll collection is known as Toll-by-Plate (TBP). Toll rates on the Parkway are one-half of those on the Mid-Bay Bridge with vehicles that pay via TBP being assessed a monthly administrative fee in addition to the equivalent per-trip cash toll rate.

Actual Parkway FY 2019 toll revenue of $4,843,994 was above the March 2019 forecast of $4,520,000 for FY 2019 by $323,994 or 7.2 percent, as shown in Table 24.

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Table 24 Walter Francis Spence Parkway Actual vs. Forecast Toll Revenue, FY 2019 Differential FY 2019 Actual Forecast Amount Percent Toll Revenue $ 4,843,994 $ 4,520,000 $323,994 7.2%

Even though the actual toll revenue exceeded the forecasted toll revenues by 7.2 percent, toll revenues on the Parkway were further suppressed by other factors:

• The Hurricane Michael toll suspension; and • The reduced number of multi-axle vehicle transactions on the Bridge due to emergency tendon repairs (as the Parkway is a feeder to the Bridge).

However, the traffic on the Parkway appears to continue to be affected in a positive manner by the favorable economic conditions in the area and in the United States in general.

With respect to traffic, for the Parkway, actual FY 2019 traffic (transactions) were above forecast for FY 2019 by 93,469 vehicles or 3.0 percent, as shown in Table 25:

Table 25 Walter Francis Spence Parkway Actual vs. Forecast Traffic, FY 2019 FY 2019 Actual Forecast Amount Percent Traffic 3,213,469 3,120,000 93,469 3.0%

As previously stated, the rebate threshold changed in January 2017. Table 26 shows that there was an 8.1 percent increase in the number of customers making 32-or-more trips per month in FY 2019 (as compared to FY 2018) while Table 27 shows an increase of approximately 1.8 percent in the rebate amounts during the same period.

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Table 26 Spence Parkway Rebate Transactions and Changes – FY 2018 and FY 2019

Change Trip Frequency (transactions/ month) FY18 FY19 Transactions Percent 1-31 1,133,312 1,178,500 45,188 4.0% 32-40 167,452 163,192 -4,260 -2.5% 41+ 214,383 249,656 35,273 16.5% 32+ 381,835 412,848 31,013 8.1% Total 1,515,147 1,591,348 76,201 5.0%

Table 27 Spence Parkway Rebate Amounts and Changes – FY 2018 and FY 2019

Rebates Change FY 2018 FY 2019 Amount Percent $184,673 $188,066 $3,393 1.8%

While the number of frequent trips increased over FY 2018 (and thus, the amount of the rebates) they may have been suppressed due to the October toll suspension and January Bridge closure (though the rebate threshold in January 2019 was adjusted to 22 trips).

The following sections discuss the traffic and revenue results from Parkway operation.

4.1 Traffic and Revenue Results Toll revenues collected in FY 2019 amounted to $4,843,994, up 18.6 percent from FY 2018. This includes the accrual to report recognized revenues by the fiscal year in which the toll by plate transactions occurs. As stated earlier, due to a change in back-office systems providers by Florida’s Turnpike Enterprise (FTE) in June 2018 and the subsequent delays in receiving Toll-By-Plate revenues, actual monthly toll revenues for the last quarter of the Authority’s FY 2018 were not provided until after the FY 2018 audited financial statement was published. As a result of the aforementioned, and the estimation of revenues for September, toll revenues are shown by quarter. A breakdown of the quarterly results is summarized in Table 28 to provide more consistency between the years on a quarterly basis.

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Table 28 Walter Francis Spence Parkway Monthly Toll Revenue, FY 2019 vs. FY 2018 Total Toll Revenue Percent Months FY 2019 FY 2018 Change October - December $ 617,552 $ 756,190 -18.3% January - March $ 1,656,932 $ 912,647 81.6% April - June $ 1,035,450 $ 1,206,871 -14.2% July - September $ 1,534,028 $ 1,207,519 27.0% Subtotal $ 4,843,962 $ 4,083,228 18.6% Tolls/collections/fines $ 33 $ 55 -40.9% Grand Total $ 4,843,994 $ 4,083,283 18.6%

While the FY 2019 Bridge revenues were down in the first and third quarters as compared to the same quarters in FY 2018 (and up over 80 percent in the second quarter and 27 percent in the fourth quarter), total FY 2019 Parkway revenues were up over FY 2018. This may be primarily due to the resolution in the delay in invoicing TBP customers as the Parkway does not collect cash tolls and may also be a result of a combination of the hurricane toll suspension and increased frequent usage by frequent customers. Jacobs will continue to monitor the impact of local economic conditions in terms of Parkway traffic and revenue.

Table 29 lists the Parkway traffic and revenue for fiscal years 2014 through 2019, including the average toll. As shown in the table, the average toll trended upwards during the initial ramp-up period of the Parkway, peaking at $1.60 in FY 2016. In FY 2017 the average toll decreased by 10 cents to $1.50 in part due to the toll suspension imposed due to Hurricane Irma. The average toll decreased further in FY 2018 due to the lowering of the trip threshold (from 41+ to 32+ trips per month), the decreased toll revenues due to the CCSS issues and the decrease in toll revenues from 3+ axle vehicles (though partly offset by the increase in 2-axle vehicle SunPass toll revenue). In FY 2019 the average toll was $1.51, having risen back to the FY 2017 level.

Table 29 Walter Francis Spence Parkway Traffic and Revenue, FY 2014-FY 2019 Traffic Average Toll(*) Toll Revenue Fiscal Year Annual Volume AADT AADT Growth 2014 1,620,055 6,045 N/A $ 1.07 $ 1,731,560 2015 2,693,552 7,380 22.1% $ 1.02 $ 2,746,120 2016 2,735,820 7,475 1.3% $ 1.60 $ 4,389,280 2017 2,970,442 8,138 8.9% $ 1.50 $ 4,420,026 2018 3,143,584 8,613 5.8% $ 1.30 $ 4,083,283 2019 3,213,469 8,804 2.2% $ 1.51 $ 4,843,994 (*) The average toll is based on non-toll suspension traffic.

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Figure 9 shows, graphically, the quarterly revenue fluctuations for fiscal years 2014 through 2019, which follows the trend in Table 23 while Figure 10 shows the quarterly revenue fluctuations for fiscal years 2014 through 2019. Superimposed on Figure 10 is a 4-quarter moving average beginning with the 3- month period ended March 2014. This shows the continuing steady upward growth trend into the summer of 2018. The last quarter of FY 2018 shows a flattening of toll revenue from the third quarter to the fourth quarter. Jacobs will continue to monitor this trend.

Figure 9 Walter Francis Spence Parkway Quarterly Received Toll Revenue Trends, FY 2014-FY 2019

..., $18,000 z::J ...,~ ~"' $14,000

::'.;

$2,000 OCT-DEC JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP

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Figure 10 Walter Francis Spence Parkway Toll Revenue Trend, 4-Quarter Moving Average, FY 2014-FY 2019

$20,000

$18,000

...$16,000 :::l z ...!!; $14,000 ..."' $12,000 ~ ::; $10,000 ;;: ...C $8,000 CJ < $6,000 !!;"' < $4,000

$2,000

$0

- Toll increase October-2015 - Trip Threshold Reduction January~2017 -+- Quarterly -- 4-Quarters MCNingAverage

The FY 2019 monthly traffic fluctuations are shown in Table 30. The monthly toll revenues are not indicated due to the back-office conversion issues noted earlier:

Table 30 Walter Francis Spence Parkway Monthly Traffic Fluctuations, FY 2019 Traffic Month Ratio ADT / Monthly Volume Percent of Year ADT AADT October 284,333 8.8% 9,172 1.04 November 224,624 7.0% 7,487 0.85 December 207,650 6.5% 6,698 0.76 January 163,331 5.1% 5,269 0.60 February 189,902 5.9% 6,782 0.77 March 286,831 8.9% 9,561 1.09 April 277,022 8.6% 9,234 1.05 May 318,747 9.9% 10,282 1.17 June 341,996 10.6% 11,400 1.29 July 355,078 11.0% 11,454 1.30 August 304,880 9.5% 9,835 1.12 September 259,075 8.1% 8,636 0.98 Total 3,213,469 100% 8,804 1.00

As shown in Table 23 and graphically in Figure 11, July (during the peak tourist season) and January

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(during the winter) were the high and low traffic months, respectively, in terms of ADT. This is the same pattern as the Mid-Bay Bridge. The month closest to the one-year average was September at 98 percent of the annual average.

Figure 11 Walter Francis Spence Parkway Monthly Traffic Fluctuations, FY 2019

1.45

1.35

1.25

b 1.15

0.75

0.65

0.55 October November December January February March April May June July August Septem ber

Table 31 shows the breakdown by vehicle classification (vehicles of three or more axles have been grouped) and indicates that 87.9 percent of the Parkway traffic was comprised of two-axle vehicles in FY 2019 (excluding non-revenue transactions, which were conservatively accounted for as 2-axle traffic), and that these vehicles produced 92.8 percent of the Parkway’s toll revenue. Vehicles with three or more axles comprised only 2.0 percent of the total traffic producing 7.2 percent of the Parkway’s toll revenue.

Table 31 Walter Francis Spence Parkway Traffic and Toll Revenue, SunPass vs. TBP, FY 2019 Vehicle Traffic Average Toll Revenue Group Volume Percent Toll Amount Percent 2-axle SunPass 1,776,652 55.3% $1.731 $ 3,075,473 63.5% 2-axle TBP 1,048,292 32.6% $1.352 $ 1,417,749 29.3%

2-axles (Subtotal) 2,824,944 87.9% $1.591 $ 4,493,222 92.8% 3+ axles 64,878 2.0% $5.407 $ 350,772 7.2% Subtotal 2,889,822 89.9% $1.676 $ 4,843,994 100.0% Non-revenue(*) 323,647 10.1% Total 3,213,469 100% $1.507 $ 4,843,994 100.0% (*) Conservatively accounted for as all being 2-axle transactions.

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Narrowing in on the two-axle vehicles, the two-axle, SunPass group in FY 2019 represented 55.3 percent of the traffic mix and produced 63.5 percent of the toll revenues while the TBP group represented 32.6 percent of the traffic and 29.3 percent of the revenue. It is important to note that although the TBP revenues lag due to the difference between the transaction date and the subsequent billing and collecting of the revenue, the Authority recognizes the TBP revenues in the year in which the toll transaction was made. The FY 2019 classification results are shown graphically in Figure 12.

Figure 12 Walter Francis Spence Parkway Traffic and Toll Revenue, SunPass vs. Toll-by-Plate, FY 2019

2-axle (SunPass) 55.3%

2-axle (TBP) 32.6% Non-revenue 10.1% 3+ axles 2.0%

Total Volume = 3,213,469 Transactions

2-axle (SunPass) 63.5%

Non-revenue 2-axle (TBP) 0.0% 29.3%

3+ axles 7.2% Total Revenue = $4,843,994

The rebate program allows for a discounted toll of $1.00 per trip for 2-axle vehicle with SunPass that complete 32-or-more trips in a month (41-or-more trips per month prior to January 2017). These rebates provided $188,066 being returned to Parkway customers, lowering the toll revenue collected from $5,032,060 to $4,843,994.

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4.2 Comparison with Forecast As indicated previously, the $4,843,994 in toll revenue collected in FY 2019 was above the $4,520,000 estimated by $323,994 or 7.2 percent.

Figure 13 shows the actual revenue alongside the expected results for the Parkway in FY 2019. The actual to expected ratios range from 65 percent in the first quarter to 169 percent in the second quarter, averaging 107 percent for the fiscal year.

Figure 13 Walter Francis Spence Parkway Quarterly Received Revenue Results, Actual vs. Forecast, FY 2019

169 % $1,600,000

$1,400,000

$1,200,000

GI :::, C $1,000,000 GI > GI a: $800,000 ~

$600,000

$400,000

$200,000

$0 October - December January - March Apri l -June July - September ■ Actual Toll Revenu e ■ Forecasted Revenu e

In terms of traffic, the 3,213,469 vehicles that used the Spence Parkway in FY 2019 exceeded the forecasts of 3,120,000 vehicles by 93,469 vehicles, or 3.0 percent as shown in Table 32.

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Table 32 Walter Francis Spence Parkway Actual and Forecasted Traffic, FY 2019 Traffic Difference Month Actual Forecast Volume Percent October 284,333 246,200 38,133 15.5% November 224,624 209,500 15,124 7.2% December 207,650 196,600 11,050 5.6% January 163,331 180,700 -17,369 -9.6% February 189,902 189,600 302 0.2% March 286,831 259,100 27,731 10.7% April 277,022 286,800 -9,778 -3.4% May 318,747 298,800 19,947 6.7% June 341,996 336,500 5,496 1.6% July 355,078 361,300 -6,222 -1.7% August 304,880 302,800 2,080 0.7% September 259,075 252,100 6,975 2.8% Total 3,213,469 3,120,000 93,469 3.0%

As noted above, both toll and traffic revenues for the Parkway were above forecast. This may be a continuing result of Parkway customers making increased use of the frequent user discount. In addition, it should be noted that the Friday of Labor Day weekend of 2019 fell in August. Thus, if the August and September actual and forecast traffic figures are combined, then the actual traffic was only 1.6 percent below forecast.

4.3 Effect of Extraordinary Events

The Bridge closure and subsequent multi-axle vehicle traffic restrictions had a large impact on revenues, as shown in Table 33, Table 34 and Table 35.

Table 33 Spence Parkway Change in Traffic by Vehicle Class

2-Axle Vehicles 3-Axle Vehicles 4+ Axle Vehicles All Vehicles Change Change Change Change Month FY18 FY19 Amount Percent FY18 FY19 Amount Percent FY18 FY19 Amount Percent FY18 FY19 Amount Percent October 240,661 274,120 33,459 13.9% 3,249 4,280 1,031 31.7% 4,147 5,933 1,786 43.1% 248,057 284,333 36,276 14.6% November 203,761 217,113 13,352 6.6% 3,045 3,331 286 9.4% 3,684 4,180 496 13.5% 210,490 224,624 14,134 6.7% December 192,355 201,079 8,724 4.5% 2,421 2,757 336 13.9% 3,186 3,814 628 19.7% 197,962 207,650 9,688 4.9% January 175,993 158,657 -17,336 -9.9% 2,963 2,118 -845 -28.5% 3,310 2,556 -754 -22.8% 182,266 163,331 -18,935 -10.4% February 184,975 185,912 937 0.5% 3,048 1,688 -1,360 -44.6% 3,388 2,302 -1,086 -32.1% 191,411 189,902 -1,509 -0.8% March 280,203 281,551 1,348 0.5% 3,747 2,331 -1,416 -37.8% 4,888 2,949 -1,939 -39.7% 288,838 286,831 -2,007 -0.7% April 253,233 271,475 18,242 7.2% 3,345 2,508 -837 -25.0% 4,641 3,039 -1,602 -34.5% 261,219 277,022 15,803 6.0% May 292,090 312,682 20,592 7.0% 3,758 2,865 -893 -23.8% 5,197 3,200 -1,997 -38.4% 301,045 318,747 17,702 5.9% June 329,675 335,526 5,851 1.8% 4,024 3,079 -945 -23.5% 5,457 3,391 -2,066 -37.9% 339,156 341,996 2,840 0.8% July 354,412 346,582 -7,830 -2.2% 4,048 3,806 -242 -6.0% 5,842 4,690 -1,152 -19.7% 364,302 355,078 -9,224 -2.5% August 295,486 296,341 855 0.3% 3,992 3,797 -195 -4.9% 5,454 4,742 -712 -13.1% 304,932 304,880 -52 0.0% September 246,260 251,448 5,188 2.1% 3,296 3,531 235 7.1% 4,350 4,096 -254 -5.8% 253,906 259,075 5,169 2.0% Annual 3,049,104 3,132,486 83,382 2.7% 40,936 36,091 -4,845 -11.8% 53,544 44,892 -8,652 -16.2% 3,143,584 3,213,469 69,885 2.2%

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Table 34 Spence Parkway Change in Traffic Market Share FY 2018 FY 2019 Change in Market Share (Percent) Month 2-Axles 3-Axles 4+ Axles Total 2-Axles 3-Axles 4+ Axles Total 2-Axles 3-Axles 4+ Axles Total October 97.0% 1.3% 1.7% 100.0% 96.4% 1.5% 2.1% 100.0% -0.6% 14.9% 24.8% 0.0% November 96.8% 1.4% 1.8% 100.0% 96.7% 1.5% 1.9% 100.0% -0.2% 2.5% 6.3% 0.0% December 97.2% 1.2% 1.6% 100.0% 96.8% 1.3% 1.8% 100.0% -0.3% 8.6% 14.1% 0.0% January 96.6% 1.6% 1.8% 100.0% 97.1% 1.3% 1.6% 100.0% 0.6% -20.2% -13.8% 0.0% February 96.6% 1.6% 1.8% 100.0% 97.9% 0.9% 1.2% 100.0% 1.3% -44.2% -31.5% 0.0% March 97.0% 1.3% 1.7% 100.0% 98.2% 0.8% 1.0% 100.0% 1.2% -37.4% -39.2% 0.0% April 96.9% 1.3% 1.8% 100.0% 98.0% 0.9% 1.1% 100.0% 1.1% -29.3% -38.3% 0.0% May 97.0% 1.2% 1.7% 100.0% 98.1% 0.9% 1.0% 100.0% 1.1% -28.0% -41.8% 0.0% June 97.2% 1.2% 1.6% 100.0% 98.1% 0.9% 1.0% 100.0% 0.9% -24.1% -38.4% 0.0% July 97.3% 1.1% 1.6% 100.0% 97.6% 1.1% 1.3% 100.0% 0.3% -3.5% -17.6% 0.0% August 96.9% 1.3% 1.8% 100.0% 97.2% 1.2% 1.6% 100.0% 0.3% -4.9% -13.0% 0.0% September 97.0% 1.3% 1.7% 100.0% 97.1% 1.4% 1.6% 100.0% 0.1% 5.0% -7.7% 0.0% Annual 97.0% 1.3% 1.7% 100.0% 97.5% 1.1% 1.4% 100.0% 0.5% -13.8% -18.0% 0.0%

Table 35 Spence Parkway Changes in Toll Revenue Vehicle FY18 FY19 Forecast--- FY18 FY19 Actual Class Actual Forecast Growth Actual Actual Growth 2-Axles $3,774,822 $4,179,000 10.7% $3,774,822 $4,493,222 19.0% 3+ Axles $308,461 $341,000 10.5% $308,461 $350,772 13.7% All $4,083,283 $4,520,000 10.7% $4,083,283 $4,843,994 18.6% While the Parkway actual toll revenue growth exceeded that of the forecast toll revenue growth for all vehicle classes, it should be noted, as previously mentioned, that this may be primarily due to the resolution in the delay in invoicing TBP customers as the Parkway does not collect cash tolls.

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4.4 Tolls Upon opening in January 2014, the toll rates for the Spence Parkway were set at one-half those of the Mid-Bay Bridge. As noted earlier, the toll rates for the Mid-Bay Bridge increased on October 1, 2015 (FY 2016) and a three-tier toll structure was introduced. Under the new toll rate structure, the toll rates for the Spence Parkway remain at 50% of those for the Bridge.

Effective October 1, 2015 (FY 2016) the base (2-axle) tolls on the Spence Parkway went to the rates shown as follows:

Spence Parkway:

• Toll-by-Plate – $2.00 ($0.50, or 33 percent increase)

• SunPass (commercial accounts along with infrequent personal account users, those making 40- or-less trips per month per account) – $1.50 ($0.50, or 50 percent increase)

• SunPass (frequent personal account users, those making 41-or-more trips per month) – $1.00 (no increase), issued in the form of a rebate

Three-or-more axle vehicles (regardless of the payment method) pay tolls calculated using the “N minus 1” method and increase at the rate of $2.00 per axle over the $2.00 Toll-by-Plate two-axle toll on the Parkway.

As previously noted, effective January 1, 2017 the threshold for frequent personal account users was lowered to 32-or-more trips per month.

Table 36 shows the history of toll increases, including the absolute dollar increases and percentage change amounts in the toll rates on the Spence Parkway.

The higher percentage increases for commercial account and non-frequent user SunPass tolls were implemented in order to maintain the same dollar amount of the discount from the cash/Toll-by-Plate toll rate while the toll rates for frequent customers were not increased so as to not have an impact on local residents and employees who may be using the facilities to commute on a daily basis. With the continuation of the $0.50 discount on the Parkway, the SunPass/Toll-by-Plate toll ratios increased from 67 percent (at opening) to 75 percent for commercial and infrequent customers (effective October 2015).

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Table 36 Walter Francis Spence Parkway History of Toll Increases Increase Toll Rates Toll Rates Effective Effective January 2014 October 2015 Vehicle Group (Opening) Amount Percent (FY2016) 2 Axles/SunPass (Frequent Customer)(1) $ 1.00 $ 0.50 50% $ 1.00 2 Axles/SunPass (Infrequent Customer)(2) $ 1.00 $ 0.50 50% $ 1.50

2 Axles/TBP $ 1.50 $ 0.50 33% $ 2.00 3 Axles $ 3.00 $ 1.00 33% $ 4.00 4 Axles $ 4.50 $ 1.50 33% $ 6.00 5 Axles $ 6.00 $ 2.00 33% $ 8.00 6 Axles $ 7.50 $ 2.50 33% $ 10.00 Add'l Axle (per axle) $ 1.50 $ 0.50 33% $ 2.00 (1) The frequent customer discount was extended to more customers on January 1, 217 (FY2017) (2) Differentiation between frequent and infrequent customers did not occur until FY2016

Inflation analysis was not conducted for the Spence Parkway as there is not enough history to warrant this study.

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5. External Factors The following section describes some of the external factors that could potentially have an impact on the Authority’s system.

5.1 Expansion of US 331 Bridge As noted in previous year’s reports, FDOT completed the project to build a second, parallel, US 331 span at the east end of Choctawhatchee Bay which was completed on May 31, 2017. This 3.3-mile project (span) is a toll-free route. US 331 is located approximately 15 miles east of the Mid-Bay Bridge and provides the motoring public a second toll-free option in lieu of using the Mid-Bay Bridge (SR 85 being the first alternative) to get from I-10 to the beaches of Okaloosa and Walton Counties. This route is especially attractive to tourists traveling west on I-10 from parts east of the area. In addition to the second span, US 331 was widened to four lanes from the north end of the US 331 bridge to south of SR 20, with completion having occurred on March 3, 2017. Construction was also completed on the widening of US 331 from SR 20 to I-10 on December 17, 2018. A PD&E study was performed to determine if US 331 should be widened from I-10 to the Alabama state line. The results of that study were a recommendation that the widening not be built. The expansion of US 331 (from I-10 to US 98) has the continued potential to divert traffic from the Mid-Bay Bridge with origins/destinations from/to the east (e.g., Tallahassee), but traffic to/from the west (e.g., Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana) should not be appreciably impacted.

To analyze the impact of the widening of US 331, the latest traffic demand model from the West Florida Regional Planning Council had been run with and without the improvement. The results at the time indicated that there would be no significant impact of the US 331 Bridge widening on the Mid-Bay Bridge and the Parkway traffic in the model. Results to date have borne this out.

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5.2 Other Projects Other projects that could affect the Authority’s facilities include the following:

• A PD&E Study to look at increasing the capacity of SR 20 from the Spence Parkway to Washington County. This study is underway, with an Alternatives meeting scheduled for March 2020 and an estimated completion date of May 2021; • The widening of US 98 from Airport Road to the Walton County line, with an anticipated completion date of February 2021; and • The widening of US 98 from Emerald Bay Drive to Tang-O-Mar Drive, with an anticipated completion date of November 2020.

FDOT has indicated that they do not have any projects going to construction that would impact the Bridge or the Parkway.

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6. Traffic and Revenue-Related Services During FY 2019 Jacobs provided the following T&R-related services to the Authority:

• Produced the FY 2018 Traffic Engineers’ Annual Report; • Prepared end-of-year forecasts and attended the annual consultants meeting and Board presentation; • Assisted in responding to rating agency (Fitch and Standard & Poors) questionnaires for their annual surveillance reviews; • Developed estimates of traffic and toll revenue losses due to Hurricane Michael and the closure and subsequent traffic restrictions on the Bridge; and • Performed a travel time analysis to compare routings to Destin via all or a portion of the Mid-Bay Bridge Authority System and via alternative non-System routes. The analysis is attached as an Addendum to this report.

This concludes the Traffic Engineers' Annual Report for FY 2019. Jacobs looks forward to the continuation of its role as the Authority's traffic engineers, by providing the services that will support and improve customer satisfaction with the Mid-Bay Bridge and Spence Parkway, while helping the Authority maintain its investment-grade credit rating and financial obligations to its bondholders.

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ADDENDUM 1 - MBBA Travel Time Study

42 JACOBS ~ Memorandum

100 Walnut Avenue, Suite 604 Clark, New Jersey 07066 United States T +1.732.396.2240 F +1.732.396.2299 www.jacobs.com

Subject MBBA Travel Time Study Project Name MBBA Annual Services

Attention Van Fuller Project No. WTXT9707

From Neal Cohen

Date August 1, 2019

Copies to Cathy Demoreski, MBBA Steve Weller, Jacobs

Jacobs was requested by the Mid-Bay Bridge Authority (MBBA, or the Authority) to assist the Authority in collecting travel times on the multiple approaches to Destin, FL.

The purpose of collecting this travel time data was to determine the competitiveness of its system travel times to alternative routes and between peak and off-peak days. Two methods were used: the predictive features of Google Maps and analysis of Google API (application programming interface) data. These methods are equally accurate as traditional travel time measurements and can be performed at much less cost.

For the approaches from the west, routes were evaluated using the predictive features of the web version of Google Maps, which provides estimates of travel time based on the most recent traffic information the application has on hand. The application can provide reasonably accurate times, forecasted to the exact minute. Google does this by monitoring its users, and by using their location and average travel speeds it can track and collate journey times on many roads. By feeding this data into a special algorithm, Google Maps can combine it with historical traffic trends to give a reliable estimate of travel time. And, the more people use the application at any particular place and time, the more accurate the prediction becomes.

The route from the west was from the junction of I-10 and I-110, on the north side of Pensacola, to Destin City Hall via:

a) I-10/SR 85/the Parkway/the Bridge/US 98;

b) I-110/US 98;

c) I-10/Garcon Point Bridge/US 98; and

d) I-10/SR 87/US 98.

The data were collected for a representative Saturday (the peak travel day) and a representative Wednesday (a typical off-peak travel day). The analysis of the travel times via the western approaches showed that while travel via I-10 and SR 85 was the longest distance (76.2 miles), it was less than or equal time to the other three routes in terms of predicted travel times.

Jacobs Civil Consultants Inc.

Memorandum

MBBA Travel Time Study

For approaches from the north and east, Jacobs collected Google API (application programming interface) data to allow for the real time collection of multiple travel time routes at fixed increments. Because the data is collected through a script the number of routes that could be analyzed would be practically unlimited.

Jacobs collected and analyzed real-time travel times on the following routes:

1) From the intersection of SR 85 & SR 123, north of the beginning of the Spence Parkway, to Destin City Hall via:

a) The Parkway and the Bridge;

b) SR 20 and the Bridge; and

c) Fort Walton Beach.

2) From the intersection of I-10 and US 331 to Destin City Hall via:

a) I-10, SR 285, the Parkway, the Bridge and US 98;

b) US 331, SR 20, the Parkway, the Bridge and US 98; and

c) I-10, US 331 and US 98.

In addition, to more closely analyze the travel times near the Bridge, travel time data were obtained in smaller increments on the Parkway from SR 20, through the Bridge toll plaza and terminating at US 98. It should be noted here that the travel time data does not provide sufficient detail to know the travel time differences between the Cash lanes and SunPass only lane at the Bridge toll plaza.

Data for each of the two routes were collected in the southbound direction every 15 minutes between the hours of 6:00 AM and 6:00 PM (Central Daylight Time) on all study days.

The API script developed in Python uses the following information to collect the travel time and distance data for a specified route:  Origin (latitude and longitude);  Destination (latitude and longitude);  Waypoints (optional, latitude and longitude). These are required for long routes as Google automatically chooses the optimum route from origin to destination

2 JACOBS ~ Memorandum

MBBA Travel Time Study

The output files were then converted to Excel to review the data and perform the analysis. The following data were extracted for each routing as a part of the data review:

 Minimum travel time;

 Maximum travel time;

 Average travel time; and

 Standard deviation of the travel times.

The above information was aggregated into four time periods:

 6:00 AM – 9:00 AM;

 9:00 AM – 12:00 Noon;

 12:00 Noon – 3:00 PM; and

 3:00 PM – 6:00 PM.

The table and graphs below show the results of the study. Table 1 notes the average travel times for both a peak and an off-peak day for the section of the Parkway (SR 293) from SR 20 to the Bridge toll plaza and from the Bridge toll plaza to US 98. Table 1 - Spence Parkway Travel Times Average Travel Times (minutes) SR 20 to Toll Plaza SR 20 to Day of the Week Time Period Toll Plaza to US 98 US 98 6 AM - 9 AM 1.5 6.0 7.6 9 AM - 12 N 2.9 8.4 11.2 Saturday 12 N - 3 PM 12.1 11.9 24.0 3 PM - 6 PM 17.8 12.0 29.9 6 AM - 6 PM 8.8 9.6 18.4 6 AM - 9 AM 1.5 6.1 7.6 9 AM - 12 N 1.6 6.7 8.3 Wednesday 12 N - 3 PM 1.6 7.1 8.7 3 PM - 6 PM 1.6 7.6 9.2 6 AM - 6 PM 1.6 6.9 8.5

As shown in the table, Saturday travel times are generally slower than Wednesday (off peak) travel times and peak in the early afternoon, lasting until 6 PM or later reflecting the congested nature of peak traffic at the toll plaza.

The next four graphs show the average total travel time from SR 20 to US 98. Figure 1 and Figure 2 show the Saturday and Wednesday average travel times by time-period (and the 12-hour study period), while Figure 3 and Figure 4 show the average travel time at 15-minute intervals.

3 JACOBS ~ Memorandum

MBBA Travel Time Study

Figure 1 - Saturday Travel Times by Time Period

Saturday Average SR 20 to US 98

35.0 VI Q) :::, 30.0 -C: .E 25.0

Q) E 20.0 i= 15.0 ~ > ~ 10.0 I- Q) QI) 5.0 ~ Q) > 0.0 <( 6AM-9AM 9 AM - 12 N 12 N - 3 PM 3 PM - 6 PM 6 AM - 6 PM

- SR 20totheToll Plaza - Toll Plaza to US 98 - SR 20to US 98

Figure 2 - Wednesday Travel Times by Time Period

Wednesday Average SR 20 to US 98

35.0 VI Q) 5 30.0 C: ·E 25.o

Q) E 20.0 i= 15.0 Q) > ~ 10.0 I- ~ 5.0 ~ ~ 0.0 <( 6AM-9AM 9AM-12 N 12 N - 3 PM 3PM-6PM 6AM-6PM

- SR 20totheToll Plaza - Toll Plaza to US 98 - SR 20to US 98

4 JACOBS ~ Memorandum

MBBA Travel Time Study

Figure 3 - Saturday Travel Times by 15-Minute Period

Saturday Average SR 20 to US 98

------~--

- SR 20tothe Toll Plaza - Toll Plaza to US98 --- SR 20to US 98

Figure 4 - Wednesday Travel Times by 15-Minute Period

Wednesday Average SR 20 to US 98

- SR 20 to the Toil Plaza - Toll Plaza to US 98 --- SR 20 to US 98

As may be expected, the Saturday travel times are higher than on Wednesdays and, on both days, travel times tend to peak in the later part of the day.

Finally, Figure 5 and Figure 6 show the comparison of average travel times for a trip going from the intersection of SR 85 and SR 123 North to Destin City Hall via the three alternative routings on a Saturday and a Wednesday, respectively, while Figure 7 and Figure 8 show the same information for a trip going from the intersection of I-10 and US 331 to Destin City Hall via the three alternative routings.

5 JACOBS ~ Memorandum

MBBA Travel Time Study

Figure 5 - Saturday Travel Times from SR 85 & SR 123 North

Average Saturday Travel Times to Destin City Hall from SR 85 and SR 123 North

60.0 V, Q) !i 50.0 C -- - - ·e 4o.o - Q) - E - - i= 30.0 - Q) - ~ 20.0 ~ ~ 10.0 ~ Q) ,?i 0.0 - 6 AM - 9 AM 9 AM - 12 N 12 N - 3 PM 3 PM - 6 PM 6 AM - 6 PM

■ Via SR85/Pkwy/Bridge ■ Via SR 85/SR 20/Pkwy/B ridge ■ Via FWB

Figure 6 - Wednesday Travel Times from SR 85 & SR 123 North

Average Wednesday Travel Times to Destin City Hall from SR 85 and SR 123 North

60.0 V, Q) !i 50.0 C ·e 40.o Q) - E - - - - i= 30.0 - - - - - ~ "' 20.0 ~ ~ 10.0 ~ Q) ,?i 0.0 ..._ 6 AM - 9 AM 9 AM - 12 N 12 N - 3 PM 3 PM - 6 PM 6 AM - 6 PM

■ Via SR 85/Pkwy/Bridge ■ Via SR 85/SR 20/Pkwy/Bridge ■ Via FWB

6 JACOBS ~ Memorandum

MBBA Travel Time Study

Figure 7 - Saturday Travel Times from I-10 & US 331

Average Saturday Travel Times to Destin City Hall from 1-10 & US 331

120.0 "v, ....Q) ::, 100.0 - C: E - 80.0 - Q) - - E - - - - i= 60.0 - v> i= 40.0 Q) t>0 ~ 20.0 Q) >

■ Via SR 285 ■ Via US 331 ■ Via SR 20

Figure 8 - Wednesday Travel Times from I-10 & US 331

Average Wednesday Travel Times to Destin City Hall from 1-10 & US 331

120.0 "'in' ! ::, 100.0 C: -S 80.0 Q) - - E - - - - - i= 60.0 - - - Q) > r=. 40.0 Q) Ql) ~ 20.0 Q) >

■ Via SR 285 ■ Via US 331 ■ Via SR 20

As shown by this analysis, in general the Mid-Bay Bridge Authority System is the quickest way to access the recreational and shopping attractions along US 98 from about Destin city proper to a few miles east of the Okaloosa-Walton county line.

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