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Vision 2023: Feasibility Analysis of Turkey's Renewable Energy Projection

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Vision 2023: Feasibility Analysis of Turkey's Renewable Energy Projection Renewable Energy 50 (2013) 570e575 Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect Renewable Energy journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/renene Vision 2023: Feasibility analysis of Turkey’s renewable energy projection Mehmet Melikoglu* Department of Energy Systems Engineering, Bahcesehir University, Ciragan Caddesi, PK: 34353 Besiktas, Istanbul, Turkey article info abstract Article history: Electricity consumption of Turkey at the year 2023 is estimated to be around 530,000 GWh. Turkey plans Received 20 September 2011 to supply 30% or 160,000 GWh of this demand from renewable energy sources according to the recently Accepted 23 July 2012 avowed government agenda Vision 2023. However, the current installed renewable energy capacity is Available online 22 August 2012 around 60,000 GWh. Detailed literature analysis showed that only wind and solar energy potential in Turkey can solely supply this demand. In this study, two different scenarios were generated to analyse Keywords: the cost and environmental impacts of supplying this demand. Scenario 1, which is derived from the Carbon tax official Vision 2023 targets, suggests supplying this demand from wind, solar, geothermal energy and Energy consumption Renewable energy hydropower. The total projected cost based on Scenario 1 is estimated to be $31.000 billion and annual Sustainability greenhouse gas emissions of 1.05 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent. According to Scenario 2 or the Turkish energy policy contrary setup it is assumed that the required demand gap could not be supplied from new renewable energy investments but equally from coal and natural gas. The projected cost is estimated to be around $8.000 billion and annual greenhouse gas emissions at appalling 71.30 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent. Assuming carbon tax at the year 2023 to be $50 per tonne of CO2 emitted, supplying the demand from renewable energy sources according to Scenario 1 would generate savings worth nearly $2.175 billion from environmental taxes annually. Thus, making the payback time of the renewable energy investments less than 15 years. Ó 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction Economic growth has always been coupled with increasing energy consumption. If everything goes according to plan, Turkey’s Turkey is a developed country, member of The Group of Twenty energy consumption will increase five times between 2000 and (G20) major economies and a regional power. After the financial 2025 [4]. However, Turkey is a net energy importer, mainly fossil crisis of 2001, Turkey showed vast economic growth [1]. Coupling fuels. The energy import ratio is around 66% [5,6]. Based on the fast growing economy with vibrant young population, primary current energy market dynamics, if Turkish energy policy does not energy consumption increased almost 50%, between 2001 and change with time, majority of this big energy demand at the year 2008 [2]. After 7 years of high economic growth, the big global 2023 would be supplied from fossil fuels. The price of fossil fuels economic crisis of 2008 had a relatively small effect on the coun- has been increasing continuously in the last decade and according try’s economy, when compared to other G20 countries. Turkish to many scientists and energy experts will keep on increasing in the economy grew 9.2% by real gross domestic product (GDP) in 2010 following years [7,8]. Fossil fuels cause major environmental and as of 2011, Turkey’s economy seemed to shake the dust of the problems and play a crucial role in global warming. global economic crisis and started to sail new horizons on solid In order to eliminate these environmental problems and grounds. According to the recently avowed government agenda, maintain a sustainable economic growth, Turkish government Vision 2023, Turkey plans to be a member of ten major economies plans to produce 30% of Turkey’s electricity demand at the year in the world with a gross domestic product at purchasing power 2023 from renewable energy sources [9]. This impressive goal also parity per capita, GDP (PPP), of 2 trillion dollars at the year 2023 [3]. matches with the energy consumption target of the European Union [10]. However, feasibility and justifiability of this ambitious plan have not been analysed yet. In this paper, economic and * Present Address: Department of Energy Systems Engineering, Atilim University, environmental impacts of producing 30% of Turkey’s electricity Kizilcasar Mahallesi, Incek-Golbasi, Ankara, Turkey. Tel.: þ90 (0) 312 586 8568; fax: þ90 (0) 312 586 8091. demand at the year 2023 from various renewable sources are E-mail address: [email protected]. analysed in detail. 0960-1481/$ e see front matter Ó 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2012.07.032 M. Melikoglu / Renewable Energy 50 (2013) 570e575 571 2. Electricity consumption in Turkey Table 1 Net electricity consumption in Turkey, TWh, between1975 and 2008 [13]. Forecasting energy demand in emerging markets such as Turkey is one of the most important global policy topics, and most of the Year Net electricity consumption, TWh early studies regarding Turkey used various forms of economic 1975 13.5 models [11]. Electricity consumption in Turkey has been increasing 1980 20.4 almost exponentially since 1975, and according to many energy 1985 29.7 1990 46.8 experts it will keep on increasing in the following decades due to 1995 67.4 high economic growth and increasing population. Turkish Ministry 2000 98.3 of Energy and Natural Resources has been using Model for Analysis 2005 130.3 of Energy Demand (MAED) to forecast medium- and long-term 2008 161.9 energy demand and Wien Automatic System Planning (WASP) to use MAED’s results to develop optimum production and invest- ment plans since 1984 [12]. The effectiveness of MAED applications to determine future energy consumption has been analysed by more than 95% of renewable energy-based electricity is supplied Ediger and Tatlidil, whom concluded a simple regression model, from hydropower and share of other renewable energy sources in Holt Winters exponential smoothing method, seems to be a more the country’s annual total electricity production is less than 1%. This sensible technique for Turkey [12]. Similarly, in this study, elec- is very low when compared to other European Union countries and tricity consumption of Turkey till the year 2023 is estimated using shows lack of diversity in energy supply. In Europe, use of hydro- an exponential empirical model shown in Eq. (1) and represented power in electricity production is not expected to further increase, in Fig. 1. The net electricity consumption data, between 1975 and since the majority of large hydro resources are already utilised and 2008, used for the estimation of model parameters are given in increasing demand for water and changing weather patterns may Table 1 [13]. reduce the amount available for electricity production in the near future [17]. This is also the case for Turkey, and majority of new E ¼ E0exp ½k1ðt À t0Þ (1) renewable energy investments is expected to focus in wind, solar, biomass and geothermal energy. In Eq. (1), E is electricity consumption, TWh; E0 is electricity consumption at the base year, TWh; t is time, years; t0 is the base 3.1. Wind energy potential of Turkey year, and k1 is the model constant. Taking E0 as 13.5 TWh and t0 as 1975, the constant k1 was calculated as 0.0765 using the modelling Feasibility studies confirmed that Turkey has a great potential software SigmaPlot 11.0. As can be seen from Fig. 1, the mathe- for electricity production from wind energy [18]. Theoretically, matical model fitted seamlessly to the data with R2 > 99.1%. Using Turkey’s wind energy potential is estimated to be 160 TWh, Eq. (1), Turkey’s electricity consumption at the year 2023 is esti- annually [19]. Around 124 billion kWh of this potential is techni- mated as 530,000 GWh. This prediction matches fairly with the cally feasible, and for some specific locations, the net economic reported literature: 500,000 GWh [14] and 560,000 GWh [15], with potential reaches about 14 billion kWh per annum [20]. The first an average of 530,000 GWh. Therefore, approximately wind power plant started operation in Turkey with an installed 160,000 GWh of electricity must be produced from renewable capacity of 1.5 MW in 1998, and the total installed capacity reached energy sources at the year 2023 to meet the Vision 2023 targets. to 730 MW by the end of 2009 [21]. Large scale wind energy However, availability of such renewable energy potential in Turkey production, which is considered as an intermittent source, with must first be verified. high penetration into the grids may eventually require storage and backup systems to guarantee steady power supply [22]. As a result, 3. Renewable energy potential of Turkey wind energy must be utilised together with other renewable energy sources, such as solar or hydrogen energy hybrid systems in In Turkey, share of renewable energy sources in electricity Turkey or elsewhere [23e25]. production reached almost 20% in the last decade [16]. However, 3.2. Solar energy potential of Turkey 600 Solar energy is abundant in Turkey, where the average solar 2 Data radiation is 3.6 kWh/m per day and the total annual radiation 500 period is around 2610 h [26]. Theoretically, Turkey’s annual solar Model based on Equation 1 energy potential is estimated to be 6150 TWh, and the annual 400 economical potential is estimated to be 305 TWh [27]. Unfortu- nately, solar energy in Turkey is almost exclusively used for water 300 heating by using roof top thermal solar systems. In terms thermal solar energy utilisation the total installed collector area capacity 2 200 was 8.2 million m in 2001, which makes Turkey one of the leading countries in the world [28].
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