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NIWA CLIENT REPORT No: 2021031WN Report Date: March 2021 NIWA Project: ELF21306 Quality Assurance Statement

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NIWA CLIENT REPORT No: 2021031WN Report Date: March 2021 NIWA Project: ELF21306 Quality Assurance Statement Climate change projections and impacts for Marlborough Prepared for Marlborough District Council March 2021 Prepared by: Gregor Macara John-Mark Woolley Daniel Morrish Abha Sood (Regional Climate Modelling) Stephen Stuart (Regional Climate Modelling) Chris Eager Christian Zammit Sanjay Wadhwa Nicolas Fauchereau For any information regarding this report please contact: Gregor Macara Climate Scientist Climate Data and Applications +64-4-386 0509 [email protected] National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research Ltd (NIWA) 301 Evans Bay Parade Hataitai Wellington 6021 Private Bag 14901 Kilbirnie Wellington 6241 Phone +64 4 386 0300 NIWA CLIENT REPORT No: 2021031WN Report date: March 2021 NIWA Project: ELF21306 Quality Assurance Statement Reviewed by: Petra Pearce Formatting checked by: Alex Quigley Approved for release by: Andrew Tait © All rights reserved. This publication may not be reproduced or copied in any form without the permission of the copyright owner(s). Such permission is only to be given in accordance with the terms of the client’s contract with NIWA. This copyright extends to all forms of copying and any storage of material in any kind of information retrieval system. Whilst NIWA has used all reasonable endeavours to ensure that the information contained in this document is accurate, NIWA does not give any express or implied warranty as to the completeness of the information contained herein, or that it will be suitable for any purpose(s) other than those specifically contemplated during the Project or agreed by NIWA and the Client. Contents Executive summary ............................................................................................................. 9 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 12 1.1 Global and New Zealand climate change................................................................ 14 1.2 Year to year climate variability and climate change ............................................... 16 2 Methodology ........................................................................................................... 20 2.1 Climate modelling ................................................................................................... 20 2.2 Maps and tabulated climate projections ................................................................ 23 2.3 Hydrological modelling ........................................................................................... 23 2.4 Limitations .............................................................................................................. 25 3 Current and future climate of Marlborough .............................................................. 27 4 Temperature ........................................................................................................... 28 4.1 Mean temperature ................................................................................................. 28 4.2 Maximum temperature .......................................................................................... 36 4.3 Minimum temperature ........................................................................................... 45 4.4 Diurnal temperature range ..................................................................................... 53 4.5 Frost days ................................................................................................................ 56 4.6 Hot days .................................................................................................................. 62 4.7 Growing degree days .............................................................................................. 65 5 Rainfall .................................................................................................................... 68 5.1 Rainfall totals .......................................................................................................... 68 5.2 Dry days .................................................................................................................. 77 5.3 Extreme, rare rainfall events .................................................................................. 85 6 Drought ................................................................................................................... 89 6.1 Potential evapotranspiration deficit ....................................................................... 89 7 Other climate variables ............................................................................................ 92 7.1 Mean wind speed ................................................................................................... 92 7.2 Surface solar radiation ............................................................................................ 98 7.3 Relative humidity .................................................................................................. 104 7.4 Air pressure ........................................................................................................... 110 8 Sea-level rise and coastal impacts .......................................................................... 112 8.1 Impacts of sea level rise ........................................................................................ 112 8.2 Datums and mean sea-level.................................................................................. 113 8.3 Historic trend in sea-level rise .............................................................................. 114 8.4 Projections for New Zealand sea-level rise ........................................................... 117 8.5 Tides and the effect of rising sea-level ................................................................. 119 9 Impacts and implications from climate change in Marlborough ............................... 122 9.1 River flows............................................................................................................. 122 9.2 Impacts of drought and future pasture growth .................................................... 126 9.3 Forestry ................................................................................................................. 127 9.4 Horticulture ........................................................................................................... 129 9.5 Ecosystem health .................................................................................................. 131 9.6 Human health ....................................................................................................... 140 10 Summary and conclusions ...................................................................................... 144 10.1 Recommendations for future work ...................................................................... 146 11 Acknowledgements ............................................................................................... 148 12 Glossary of abbreviations and terms ...................................................................... 149 13 References ............................................................................................................. 150 Tables Table 2-1: Projected change in global mean surface air temperature for the mid- and late- 21st century relative to the reference period of 1986-2005 for different RCPs. 22 Table 5-1: Modelled historical and projected rainfall depths (mm) for Blenheim for different event durations with a 50-year return period (0.02 ARI) 86 Table 5-2: Modelled historical and projected rainfall depths (mm) for Blenheim for different event durations with a 100-year return period (0.01 ARI) 86 Table 5-3: Modelled historical and projected rainfall depths (mm) for Molesworth for different event durations with a 50-year return period (0.02 ARI) 87 Table 5-4: Modelled historical and projected rainfall depths (mm) for Molesworth for different event durations with a 100-year return period (0.01 ARI) 87 Table 5-5: Modelled historical and projected rainfall depths (mm) for Picton for different event durations with a 50-year return period (0.02 ARI) 87 Table 5-6: Modelled historical and projected rainfall depths (mm) for Picton for different event durations with a 100-year return period (0.01 ARI) 88 Table 5-7: Modelled historical and projected rainfall depths (mm) for Rai Valley for different event durations with a 50-year return period (0.02 ARI) 88 Table 5-8: Modelled historical and projected rainfall depths (mm) for Rai Valley for different event durations with a 100-year return period (0.01 ARI) 88 Table 8-1: Mean sea-level and datum offsets at Picton. 113 Table 8-2: Approximate years, from possible earliest to latest, when specific sea-level rise increments (metres above 1986–2005 baseline) could be reached for various projection scenarios of SLR for the wider New Zealand region. 118 Table 8-3: Tidal levels at Picton. 119 Table 8-4: High-tide values from 100-year tidal predictions for Picton. 120 Table 8-5: High-tide values from 100-year tidal predictions for Picton. 120 Table 9-1: Overall impacts of climate change on the main horticultural crops in NZ. 129 Figures Figure 1-1: Marlborough regional boundary. 13 Figure 1-2: New Zealand national temperature series, 1909-2020. 15 Figure 1-3: Average summer percentage of normal rainfall during El Niño (left) and La Niña (right). 17 Figure 1-4: New Zealand air temperature - historical (black) and future projections for four RCPs and six downscaled
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