FOURTH QUARTER 2015
THE INDONESIA PERSPECTIVE
THE CHECKUP : DASSAULT FALCON 7X
INDUSTRY INSIDER: WU ZHENDONG
ASIA-PACIFIC OUTLOOK: METRICS & MOOD
CURRENT MARKET SUMMARIES: JETS & HELICOPTERS THE WORLD STANDARD
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Now you have two choices for superior, ultra-long-range capability. The 5,950 nm Falcon 7X—the fastest selling Falcon ever (and with Now you have two choices for superior, ultra-long-range capability. The 5,950 nm Falcon 7X—the fastest selling Falcon ever (and with good reason). Or the new, 6,450 nm Now you have two choices for superior, ultra-long-range capability.good Thereason). 5,950 Or the nm new, Falcon 6,450 7X—the nm Falcon fastest 8X, destined selling to Falconbecome evera favorite (and of with world good travelers. reason). Both haveOr the the new, awe-inspiring 6,450 nm ability Falcon 8X, destined to become a favorite of world travelers. BothFalcon have 8X, the destined awe-inspiring to become ability a to favorite fly long of distances world travelers. from short Bothto fly and havelong challenging distances the awe-inspiring from runways short and ability such challenging to as fly Aspen long runways distances such as from Aspen short and Londonand challenging City. The 8X runways is more than such three as feet Aspen longer, with over 30 cabin layouts. Fly far. Fly in comfort. Achieve more. and London City. The 8X is more than three feet longer, with overand 30 London cabin layouts.City. The Fly 8X far. is moreFly in thancomfort. three Achieve feet longer, more. with over 30 cabin layouts. Fly far. Fly in comfort. Achieve more.
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广告
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Now you have two choices for superior, ultra-long-range capability. The 5,950 nm Falcon 7X—the fastest selling Falcon ever (and with Now you have two choices for superior, ultra-long-range capability. The 5,950 nm Falcon 7X—the fastest selling Falcon ever (and with good reason). Or the new, 6,450 nm Now you have two choices for superior, ultra-long-range capability.good Thereason). 5,950 Or the nm new, Falcon 6,450 7X—the nm Falcon fastest 8X, destined selling to Falconbecome evera favorite (and of with world good travelers. reason). Both haveOr the the new, awe-inspiring 6,450 nm ability Falcon 8X, destined to become a favorite of world travelers. BothFalcon have 8X, the destined awe-inspiring to become ability a to favorite fly long of distances world travelers. from short Bothto fly and havelong challenging distances the awe-inspiring from runways short and ability such challenging to as fly Aspen long runways distances such as from Aspen short and Londonand challenging City. The 8X runways is more than such three as feet Aspen longer, with over 30 cabin layouts. Fly far. Fly in comfort. Achieve more. and London City. The 8X is more than three feet longer, with overand 30 London cabin layouts.City. The Fly 8X far. is moreFly in thancomfort. three Achieve feet longer, more. with over 30 cabin layouts. Fly far. Fly in comfort. Achieve more.
WWW.DASSAULTFALCON.COM I FRANCE: +33 1 47 11 88 68 I USA: +1 201 541 4600 WWW.DASSAULTFALCON.COM I BEIJING: +86 10 5696 5200 I HONG KONG: +852 6623 6772WWW I SHANGHAI.DASSAULTFALCON.COM: +86 189 1157 7115 I FRANCE: +33 1 47 11 88 68 I USA: +1 201 541 4600 PUBLISHER’S NOTE
READY FOR TAKEOFF
Welcome to the inaugural issue of the Asian Sky Quarterly. Over the 20 years, the entrepreneur and general aviation visionary has been years since ASG released its fi rst fleet report back in 2012, we’ve paid responsible for the success of many western fi rms’ participation in the close attention to our readers’ feedback as well as the Asian business China market, and has spearheaded the development and growth of his aviation community’s needs and demands. Through our understanding Shenzhen-based company with an AOC, which supports and manages of those needs, we are launching this quarterly publication which ASG China-based aircraft and various ab-initio and advanced special training hopes will succeed in providing buyers and sellers with informed advice services for pilots. on purchase and sale decisions, as well as the state of the industry across the Asia-Pacifi c region. Thank you for your loyal support and readership, and I’d like to take a moment to thank JETNET and our incredible in-house team for In every issue of Asian Sky Quarterly, you’ll fi nd updated intelligence making this whole report possible. To all — this is just the beginning on Asia-Pacific economics, market “mood” and intent-to-purchase with much more to come. Expect charter studies, a closer look at indicators, OEM activities, a market overview for a specifi c Asia-Pacifi c other emergent countries, an examination of Asia’s growing training country, market values of business jets and helicopters for sale, demand needs & opportunities, as well as other crucial intelligence, all from an & offer indicators by model, market positioning by model, our featured independent perspective that adds value for our readers, so that you can aircraft for sale, an in-depth market analysis of a specifi c aircraft model, make better business decisions. This personifi es what ASG is all about. and much more. We hope to take you from a top macroeconomic view of the Asian market, then distill down systematically to end on a specifi c Don’t hesitate to let us know what you think. The next edition will soar business aircraft models and along the way providing you with valued to greater heights. insights to help you make the right decisions.
We’ll also feature a narrated story drawn from an in-depth interview of an Asian business aviation industry titan. This issue’s story personality is on none other than the deeply respected and admired Wu Zhendong, Sincerely, founder and current Chairman and CEO of Avion Pacifi c Limited, one Jeffrey C. Lowe of China’s leading general aviation service providers since 1993. For Managing Director, Asian Sky Group
4 | ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY — FOURTH QUARTER 2015 When it comes to business jets, can I combine style and comfort with range?
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STUDIO:Airbus:2016:Airbus:B1362-001013_2016:12226_AIR_QA_ACJ_Adapts:12226_ACJ_QA_VueCanape_AsianSky_297x210_1.0 CONTENTS
08 ECONOMICS 34 INDUSTRY INSIDER Overview of the Asia-Pacific region’s current status and The inside success story of Asia-Pacific business aviation each specific country’s GDP in contrast with their business pioneer and veteran Wu Zhendong, Chairman & CEO of aircraft fleet growth. Avion Pacific Ltd.
09 MOOD & INTENTIONS 36 AIRCRAFT SPOTLIGHT Survey results of the Asia-Pacific region’s mood on current An in-depth market performance analysis of the Falcon 7X. economic status, aircraft utilization, purchase intentions, and influencing factors.
12 COUNTRY PROFILE 40 MARKET SUMMARY -- JETS Overview and examination of Indonesia’s advocacy for A model-by-model market positioning and average days- business aviation, its fleet growth, and top operators. on-market analysis with featured pre-owned business jets.
14 OEM ACTIVITY 52 MARKET SUMMARY -- HELICOPTERS A performance snapshot of every major business aircraft A model-by-model market positioning and average days-on- manufacturer focusing on the most recent financial news, market analysis with featured pre-owned civil helicopters. deliveries and other key news developments.
26 MARKET DYNAMICS An in-depth analysis of the changing pricing signals and business aircraft market momentum given the continual fluctuations of supply and demand.
PUBLISHER Asian Sky Quarterly is published by Blu Inc Media (HK) Ltd, a from any error or omission in compiling such information. This Asian Sky Group subsidiary of SPH Magazines Pte Ltd. Copyright and trademark report also uses third party information not compiled by ASG. registered by SPH Magazines Pte Ltd. All rights reserved. ASG is not responsible for such information and makes no PUBLISHING AGENT Content copyright © Blu Inc Media (HK) Ltd. representation about the accuracy, completeness or any other Blu Inc Media (HK) The trademark and content may not be used or reproduced aspect of information contained. The information, data, articles, without the permission of SPH Magazines Pte Ltd and Blu Inc or resources provided by any other parties do not in any way DATA Media (HK) Ltd. © 2015 by Blu Inc Media (HK) Ltd. signify that ASG endorses the same. JETNET, GAMA, and Asian Sky Group The materials and information provided by Asian Sky Group EDITORIAL Limited (“ASG”) in this report is for reference only. Any AIRCRAFT SALES INQUIRIES: Anthony Lam information we provide about how we may interpret the data and market, or how certain issues may be addressed is provided DESIGN generally without considering your specific circumstances. Jun Ng Such information should not be regarded as a substitute for professional advice. Independent professional advice should be Asian Sky Group MARKETING sought before taking action on any matters to which information Suite 3905, Far East Finance Centre, Jennifer Spano provided in this report may be relevant. 16 Harcourt Road, Admiralty, Hong Kong Tel: (852) 2235 9222 | Fax: (852) 2528 2766 ADVERTISING ENQUIRIES ASG shall not be liable for any losses, damage, costs or expenses [email protected] | www.asianskygroup.com [email protected] howsoever caused, arising directly or indirectly from the use of [email protected] or inability to use this report or use of or reliance upon any information or material provided in this report or otherwise in TECHNICAL connection with any representation, statement or information on Colorprint Offset or contained in this report. Blu Inc Media (HK) Ltd Address 地址 2/F, Chinaweal Centre, 414-424 Jaffe Rd, 8香港柴湾新业街 18号八号商业广场 楼 1808室 ASG endeavours to ensure that the information contained in Wanchai, Hong Kong Tel 电话 +852 2896 7777 this report is accurate as at the date of publication, but does not Tel: (852) 2165 2800 | Fax: (852) 2868 1799 Fax 传真 +852 2869 6666 guarantee or warrant its accuracy or completeness, or accept www.bluincmedia.com Website 网站 www.cpo.com.hk any liability of whatever nature for any losses, damage, costs or All editorial and circulation inquiries should be directed to this expenses howsoever caused, whether arising directly or indirectly address
6 | ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY — FOURTH QUARTER 2015
ECONOMICS
Asia is facing a challenging but resilient economic environment. The • In addition, further U.S. dollar strength accompanied by a sudden region is expected to remain as the global growth leader in 2015- tightening of global financial conditions, weaker growth in Japan, 16 at a steady 5.4%, but current conditions will require carefully and weaker regional potential growth could also dim Asia’s calibrated macroeconomic policies and a renewed momentum on growth prospects. structural reforms to facilitate investment and improve economic efficiency, strengthening economic resilience and potential growth. • High leverage could amplify shocks, and lower commodity prices will also hurt corporate investment in key commodity-producing • Asia’s growth should benefit from relatively strong labor markets sectors. and disposable income growth along with the ongoing gradual recovery in major advanced economies. • Business Aviation activity in Asia has declined over the last two years due to the slowdown of the world economy, but particularly • Across most major Asian economies, lower commodity prices China which has affected the region. This decline is expected should help consumption. Negative risks to growth dominate, to continue as austerity measures, taxes, and infrastructure especially the possibility of a sharper slowdown in China or larger issues remain. In addition, China’s economy is now growing at spillovers from the changing composition of China’s demand. the slowest pace in 25 years.
BUSINESS JET FLEET AND GDP BY COUNTRY
GDP (B USD) BUSINESS JET FLEET CIVIL HELICOPTER FLEET
10,855 1,760 China 229 1,524 691 6,040 Japan 617 5,495 4,772 512 2,151 183 India 495 498 1,709 Australia 1,519 153 1,141 147 South Korea 1,442
1,095 Indonesia 116 115 908 755 Taiwan 507 428 Thailand 374 319 50 Malaysia 349 57 220 47 49 178 248 44 174 157 Singapore 316 156 152 236 38 137 Hong Kong 36 128 307 229 112 Philippines 303 105 27 26 27 200 25 76 77 69 New Zealand 198 18 145 17 15 15 Papua New Guinea 13 13 40 38 16 11 28 26 24 21 10 20 5 19
1 1
2010 2 011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2010 2 011 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2010 2 011 2012 2013 2014 2015*
* 2015 GDP are forecasted
8 | ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY — FOURTH QUARTER 2015 CIT Business Aircraft Finance
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© 2015 CIT Group Inc. CIT and the CIT logo are registered service marks of CIT Group Inc. cit.com/businessair MOOD & INTENTIONS: ASIA-PACIFIC SURVEY
COUNTRY DISTRIBUTION OWNER AIRCRAFT TYPE DISTRIBUTION
Australia & Greater China (48%) Fixed Wing (73%) New Zealand (34%)
150+ respondents
Others (18%) Rotary (27%)
Source: Asian Sky Group Survey, November 2015
• The survey was taken in December 2015 with over WHAT IS OUR CURRENT ECONOMIC STATUS? 150 respondents.
At low point (30%) Not reached low point (45%) • Over 80% of surveyors recorded having utilized their aircraft as much as or less than the previous year, with a quarter of them experiencing decreased usage of up to 20% or more.
• In contrast with an increased business jet fleet for the majority of the Asia Pacific countries over the past year, the number of utilization hours have actually decreased.
• Despite a healthy number of Asia-Pacific countries recording a slight growth uptick in GDP with more Past low point (25%) than several parallel increases in business jet fleet growth, at least 75% of surveyors felt the region’s economy has not yet reached its low point, or are still at its low point.
WHAT WAS YOUR AIRCRAFT UTILIZATION HOW SATISFIED ARE YOU WITH YOUR MOST COMPARED TO 12 MONTHS AGO? RECENT AIRCRAFT PURCHASE?
Down but less than 20% The same (37%) Uncertain (17%) Satisfied (57%) (25%)
Down 20% or more (19%) Up but less Up by 20% than 20% or more (8% ) (11%) Unsatisfied (26%)
10 | ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY — FOURTH QUARTER 2015 PURCHASE INTENTIONS IN 2016 PURCHASE PREFERENCES (Outer is preferred)
Pre-owned aircraft (22%) Uncertain (58%) Small jet
Twin-turbine Medium jet helicopter
Single-turbine Large jet helicopter
New aircraft (20%)
Piston helicopter Corporate airliner
FACTORS INFLUENCING PURCHASE DECISIONS (Outer is stronger factor)
APAC Overall Greater China Australia & New Zealand Others (SE Asia, Japan)
No need
Government/Public opinion Economic uncertainly
Purchase timing Price
Availability of financing Declining business activity
No current aircraft meets needs Can’t sell current aircraft
Nearly half of the surveyors would purchase a new aircraft or cited economic uncertainty as the most significant limiting factor, preowned aircraft, however the majority were keen to prefer a large followed by “government/public opinion” for Greater China and jet over any other category of jets, with medium jets at a distant “declining business activity” for Southeast Asia and Japan. second and the rest with near little or no demand. Respondents
FOURTH QUARTER 2015 — ASIAN SKY QUARTERLY | 11 COUNTRY PROFILE
INDONESIA AVIATION MARKET OVERVIEW
The year 2015 was challenging for business aviation in Business Jet Fleet -- Aircraft Registrations Indonesia as a result of a slowdown in its economic growth, currency depreciation, and reinforcement on the restriction of Cayman Islands (6%) Bermuda (2%) foreign registered aircraft operating in the country.
Isle of Man (6%) With jets and 7 civil helicopters in , the Indonesian market is the th largest in the Asia-Pacific region, where most of the aircraft based in Indonesia are also registered locally in order to utilize privileges available only to USA (22%) Indonesian-registered aircraft. 50