Demographic Trends and Likely Futures for Australia’s Tropical Rivers Prepared by Dean Carson, Andrew Taylor and Suzanne Campbell School for Social and Policy Research, Charles Darwin University October 2009 Disclaimer TRaCK has published the information contained in this publication to assist public knowledge and discussion and to help improve the sustainable management of Australia’s tropical rivers and coasts. Where technical information has been prepared by or contributed by authors external to TRaCK, readers should contact the author(s), and conduct their own enquiries, before making use of that information. No person should act on the contents of this publication whether as to matters of fact or opinion or other content, without first obtaining specific independent professional advice which confirms the information contained within this publication. While all reasonable efforts have been made to ensure that the information in this publication is correct, matters covered by the publication are subject to change. Charles Darwin University does not assume and hereby disclaims any express or implied liability whatsoever to any party for any loss or damage caused by errors or omissions, whether these errors or omissions result from negligence, accident or any other cause. Copyright This publication is copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study, research, criticism or review as permitted under the Copyright Act, no part may be reproduced, by any process, without written permission from the publisher, Enquiries should be made to the publisher, Charles Darwin University, c/- TRaCK, Casuarina Campus, Building Red 1 Level 3, Darwin NT 0909. TRaCK brings together leading tropical river researchers and managers from Charles Darwin University, Griffith University, the University of Western Australia, CSIRO, James Cook University, the Australian National University, Geoscience Australia, the Environmental Research Institute of the Supervising Scientist, the Australian Institute of Marine Science, the North Australia Indigenous Land and Sea Management Alliance, and the Governments of Queensland, the Northern Territory and Western Australia. TRaCK receives major funding for its research through the Australian Government's Commonwealth Environment Research Facilities initiative; the Australian Government's Raising National Water Standards Program; Land and Water Australia; the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation and the Queensland Government's Smart State Innovation Fund. Carson, D., Taylor, A. and Campbell, S. (2009) Demographic Trends and Likely Futures for Australia’s Tropical Rivers. Charles Darwin University, Darwin. For further information about this publication: Andrew Taylor, TRaCK [email protected] Or to find out more about TRaCK Visit: http://www.track.gov.au/ ISBN: 978-1-921576-14-0 Email: [email protected] Published by: Charles Darwin University Phone: 08 8946 7444 Printed by: Charles Darwin University 3 Contents Executive Summary ............................................................................................... 4 Chapter 1 Introduction ......................................................................................... 8 Chapter 2 The Human Geography of Australia’s Tropical River Catchments .. 10 Chapter 3 Methods............................................................................................. 16 Chapter 4 Results ............................................................................................... 21 Residents 2006 Changes in Resident Characteristics 1996-2006 Demographic profiles Population projections Tourists TRACK Visitor Profile 2006 Tourism Conclusions .......................................................................................................... 34 References ............................................................................................................ 37 Appendix 1 Demographic profiles of tropical catchments http://www.track.gov.au/research-projects/301 Appendix 2 Towards a Demographic Typology of TRaCK Regions Appendix 3 TRaCK Tourism Catchment Typology Acknowledgements We gratefully acknowledge the Tropical Rivers and Coastal Knowledge (TRaCK), CSIRO Sustainable Division, James Cook University, the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), and Charles Darwin University for funding this study. TRaCK receives major funding for its research through the Australian Government’s Commonwealth Environment Research Facilities initiative; the Australian Government’s Raising National Water Standards Program; Land and Water Australia; the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation and the Queensland Government’s Smart State Innovation Fund. 3 4 Executive Summary This report profiles the changing nature of the resident and visitor populations in Australia’s tropical river catchment areas (collectively the ‘TRaCK region’). Demographic changes are examined in terms of mobility and temporariness, age, gender and Indigeneity and whether trends observed in the past ten or fifteen years are likely to be carried forward in the next ten or fifteen years, and how this might influence the population makeup well into the 21st century. From tourism perspective numbers and types of visitors are profiled along with the nature of the trips common to the region. The supply side of tourism is assessed for its ability to meet the expectations of changing and evolving tourism markets. The application of this research is to inform assessments about and the planning for future human, economic and environmental scenarios for the region in conjunction with other research streams being conducted under the TRaCK banner to support river and estuary management in northern Australia (see www.track.gov.au). The TRaCK region is home to just two percent of Australia’s resident population (about 310,000 people), a quarter of who are Indigenous (around 110,000 people). The population mix in the region is unusual, as it includes 16 percent of Australia’s Indigenous population, around half of Australia’s Torres Strait Islander population of 30,000, is visited by more than 20 percent of international visitors to Australia, and host about six percent of travellers in Australia each year (about 4.5 million visits). Its population is relatively young with a median age of 33 years compared to 37 years for the rest of Australia. Its sex ratio indicates over representation of males in the population at 106 males per 100 females compared to 97 per hundred for the balance of Australia. The sex ratio for non-Indigenous people was higher still at 108 compared to 97 for the rest of Australia. Population growth in the region has followed two distinct paths. The first is the rapid increase of Indigenous populations since the early 1980s. The second has been high rates of population turnover among non-Indigenous populations, including a trend to outmigration to other parts of Australia and population growth based largely on immigration from overseas. The two paths are linked by a trend towards urbanisation which has been observed for both the Indigenous and non-Indigenous populations. Meanwhile the age composition of growth during the past decade and projected in the results of this study raise significant concerns about the ability of the region to generate sustained economic outcomes based on distributed economic growth. This is because almost all population growth has been concentrated in the ages 45 years and over and these residents will either retire in the region, creating a large dependency burden, or move away, diminishing the economic and social capital. And if the declines in the 20 to 34 year age groups observed during the past decade continue the potential for the region to respond to development opportunities will diminish while the economic burden of dependency rises. Tourism activity in the areas covered by the TRaCK region has been highly concentrated in and around Darwin, Broome, and Katherine in terms of visitor nights, while activity in the remaining areas has been comparatively sparse. International visitors account for around a third of the estimated 4.5 million visitors per annum and around five percent of all visitors to Australia visit the region, and almost all for leisure purposes. Around a half of all international visitors to the region travelled alone compared to around a third of domestic visitors. 4 5 While almost all international visitors said they came to the TRaCK region for leisure, many domestic visitors came to visit friends and relatives as well as for business purposes. International visitors are more likely to be on multiple destination trips with the mean number of overnight stops reflecting this at six compared to two for domestic visitors. Transport to the region by domestic visitors is shared equally and dominated by air transport and private vehicle. By contrast, international visitors also arrived by bus or scheduled coach services, many of whom are on packaged tours. Domestic visitors tend to stay at hotels and with friends and relatives, whereas international visitors utilise a wider variety of accommodation types including backpacker hostels and caravan parks. In terms of activities undertaken by tourists in the TRaCK region the most common one was eating out, followed by going to the beach and visiting national parks. Aboriginal tourism activities featured relatively little for domestic visitors but were more likely to be undertaken by international visitors. The performance