DOCSLIB.ORG

In Search of Lost Optimism. a Year of PPK

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
In Search of Lost Optimism. a Year of PPK : SPECIAL REPORT In search of lost optimism. A year of PPK Madrid, July 2017 Barcelona • Bogota • Buenos Aires • Havana • Lima • Lisbon • Madrid • Mexico City • Miami • New York City • Panama City • Quito • Rio de Janeiro • Sao Paulo Santiago • Santo Domingo • Washington, DC IN SEARCH OF LOST OPTIMISM. A YEAR OF PPK 1. INTRODUCTION One year and one day after he started his term, 1. INTRODUCTION LLORENTE & CUENCA Peru reflects onThe Dreams of President 2. A YEAR OF PPK Kuczynski1. At that time, two potential scenarios were discerned 3. OPTIMISTIC START for how the country could evolve. On the one hand, possible 4. IMPASSE IN THE peaceful political coexistence between the PPK and Keiko Fujimori CONSTITUTIONAL DESIGN that would assure stable governing conditions and sustainable 5. CLOUDS ON THE HORIZON economic growth and, on the other, a state of permanent conflict 6. ECONOMY UNDER POLITICAL between the legislative and executive powers that would cast its PRESSURE shadow over political stability and private investment. 7. RECOVERING OPTIMISM 8. IN SEARCH OF LOST OPTIMISM Today, one year after analyzing these two possibilities, we know AUTHORS that the difficulties in managing to create harmonious coexistence between a government without parliamentary support and an opposition with legislative majority is one of the reasons for the growing censure that Pedro Pablo Kuczynski has been suffering. The LLORENTE & CUENCA Latinamerica Public Affairs team has prepared an assessment that not only analyses the main factors that have caused the political turbulence that Peru has experienced, but also considers a new outlook for his second year of mandate. This analysis sets out the main milestones that have shaped this first year of the PPK government, and that marks the course for what could happen in the next, an analysis that is essential for understanding what is actually taking place in Peru. 1 Developing Ideas The Peruvian economy, a success story by José Carlos Antón http://www.developing-ideas.com/2016/10/17/peruvian-economy-a-success-story/#. WXcCbojyiUk 2 IN SEARCH OF LOST OPTIMISM. A YEAR OF PPK 2. A YEAR OF PPK 3. OPTIMISTIC START President Pedro Pablo At the end of an intense Kuczynski’s first year was electoral campaign whose intense. The optimism at outcome was uncertain until the start of his term, due the very last week, with PPK to generating positive winning by fewer than 50,000 expectations in the business votes over Keiko Fujimori, sector, slowly started to there were quite positive fade away as the economy expectations both from citizens underwent a deterioration and private investors. “The optimism [...] triggered by strong political slowly started to pressure. However, only days In the business sector, because fade away as the into the second year of the PPK this was the first time in administration, the possibility decades that the second economy underwent a of better understanding presidential round was deterioration triggered between his government contended by two candidates by strong political and the opposition, led by who both looked favorably Keiko Fujimori, who controls on private investment, and pressure” the Congress, opens up the because the composition of prospect of a recovery of the new Congress made one optimism due to the eventuality think that there would also of a better business climate in be a friendly stance toward Peru. In light of recent months promoting private enterprise. though, this optimism will remain cautious, as this five- But the election results in 2016 year political term will never be entailed another novelty for the free from complexities. Peruvian institutional system. It was the first time in many President Kuczynski with Fernando Zavala, minister of Economy and Finance, years that a single opposition during his swearing-in ceremony party–the Popular Force– gained a crushing majority in the Congress that would let it control the legislative process and closely supervise and monitor the government via the instruments established by the Constitution. These factors all made it clear that the main challenge in the 2016-2021 term of office would not be economic, given the similar outlooks of the main parties represented in Congress, but essentially Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/presidenciaperu/35450345156/in/album-72157682468470094/ 3 IN SEARCH OF LOST OPTIMISM. A YEAR OF PPK political: How to articulate 4. IMPASSE IN THE harmonious coexistence CONSTITUTIONAL DESIGN between a weak government like the PPK, due to its scant The underlying cause of parliamentary representation, this impasse is a problem in “The Fujimori opposition, and a solid opposition like that the design of Peru’s political due to having a huge led by Keiko Fujimori, in light system, which was analyzed Congressional majority, of its overwhelming majority in well by electoral affairs analyst legislative power. Fernando Tuesta2, who observed: can censure ministers ‘Peru is the only country in as often as it likes, Thus at the outset of PPK's the region in which –being something that would government in July 2016 presidential– mechanisms are one could outline two basic embedded that are typical of be uncommon in a scenarios for how the country parliamentary systems inherited parliamentary system” would evolve. from Europe, creating a hybrid that has negative effects on On the one hand, the optimistic Peruvian politics.’ scenario, which would entail the establishment of basic He adds: ‘In parliamentary political agreement between systems, the government is PPK and Keiko Fujimori that— elected in parliament by a without ever becoming a stable majority of a party or coalition and permanent alliance— of parties. While it does would let propitious conditions exercise a function of political for governance be established, control, the government can helping to set in motion the govern and the parliament implementation of pending can supervise its work. There reforms to promote economic cannot be a government with growth and improve quality of a majority parliamentary life in areas including the job opposition’. market, the pension system and decentralization. Thus, in a situation like the one Peru is going through today, On the other hand, the the Fujimori opposition, due to pessimistic scenario, consisting having a huge Congressional of growing stand-offs between majority, can censure ministers the government and the as often as it likes, something opposition that could place that would be uncommon in a governability at risk due to parliamentary system in which the creation of an institutional if the government lost majority, impasse. This could cause the the prime minister would be mandate to lose due to the directly censured and the permanent duel between those elections moved forward. seeking presidential vacancy and those wanting to dissolve the Congress. 2 El Comercio, Cernsorship in a poorly designed building by Fernando Truesta. http://elcomercio.pe/politica/censura-edificio-mal-disenado-fernando-tuesta-427718 4 IN SEARCH OF LOST OPTIMISM. A YEAR OF PPK 5. CLOUDS ON THE Other menacing factors have HORIZON included the accusations of corruption of politicians and At the start of his mandate, officials from the Operation Car the opposition expressed wash (Lava Jato) case in Brazil, support critical to the PPK which led to an international administration, including a arrest warrant being issued record and nearly unanimous for former President Alejandro investiture vote by Congress of Toledo; along with other the ministerial cabinet led by denunciations, ex-President Fernando Zavala–as required Ollanta Humala and his wife by the Constitution–as well as Nadine Heredia have been “The growing clashes granting legislative powers to ordered preventative detention the government. for 18 months; and this could between the government also affect ex-President Alan and the opposition were Nonetheless and one year later, García and former candidate not the only source of the great difficulty is apparent Keiko Fujimori for having complications for the in establishing elementary allegedly received illegal harmony between the PPK election contributions from the country’s institutions government and the Congress company Odebrecht. and economic endeavors” dominated by Keiko Fujimori’s party. This has frequently seen There was also the strong them taking the negative road impact of the coastal El Niño, of discord described above, with landslides and flooding darkening political stability and causing severe damages to the the business environment. national infrastructures and family estate, especially in the This was the consequence north of the country. of the opposition outlining a complicated and often Finally, there was the aggressive relationship with lamentable action of the the government, which was Republic’s comptroller clearly expressed in the censure general Edgar Alarcón, whose at the end of 2016 of minister of performance damaged the Education Jaime Saavedra. economic process. Its apex was the recording of private The growing clashes between conversations he held with the government and the ministers, which were later opposition were not the only leaked to the media in the source of complications for context of the debate on the the country’s institutions and Chinchero Airport project in economic endeavors. Cusco. 5 IN SEARCH OF LOST OPTIMISM. A YEAR OF PPK As a consequence of To start, public opinion approval the political turbulence on President Kuczynski’s surrounding this project, performance dropped, according
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Background- Peru1 Peru Is the Third Largest Country in South America
    Background- Peru1 Peru is the third largest country in South America, after Brazil and Argentina, home to 30 million people. It is a developed democracy still grappling with a lingering legacy of repeated military coups, mistreatment of indigenous peoples, and severe human rights abuses committed during a 1980s and 1990s communist insurgency. It has the unenviable distinction of being, by far, the state appearing the most frequently before the Inter-American Court of Human Rights. Peru’s colonial period was marked by notably strong military control and brutal repression of indigenous populations. Spain conquered the Inca Empire in the 1500s but Indians repeatedly rebelled against Spanish rule, most notably under Túpac Amaru II, an Incan and Spanish aristocrat who the Spanish tortured to death for leading a 1780 rebellion. By the 1800s, Spain had firm control over Peru with a large Spanish population and military presence. However, the Spanish military presence threatened revolutionaries from the newly independent Argentina and Bolivia and they invaded Peru and declared it independent in 1824. In the century following its independence, Peru gradually made progressive reforms but struggled with repeated wars and mounting foreign debt. After the Argentine and Bolivian revolutionaries departed, Peruvian military leaders engaged in an internal power struggle but ultimately established a stable military regime in the 1850s and a presidential democracy in the 1870s. From the 1850s to 1920s, Peru expanded voting rights, developed public education, abolished slavery, and introduced theoretical (if poorly enforced) rights for indigenous communities. However, the socialist Aprista party and the communists complained that support for the poor and indigenous communities did not go far enough.
    [Show full text]
  • Diapositiva 1
    Latina Finance & Co Corporate Finance Advisory in Latin America Latin America 2009 Political, Economical and Financial snapshot January 2010 Latina Finance & Co www.latinafinance.net Table of contents 1. Introduction 2. Latin America political 2009 3. Latin America economical 2009 4. Latin America financial 2009 5. Latam – Europe business 2009 6. Outlook 2010 7. Contact 8. Disclaimer Latina Finance & Co 2 1 . Introduction We are very happy to provide you with a quick overview of what has been the year 2009 in Latin America. It is not an extensive review but much more a snapshot which should hopefully provide you with a helicopter view of what has been a very interesting year. We have now entered 2010 and the prospect for this year is encouraging with continuous political stability in the key countries of the region and confirmation of an increasing democratic environment. Brazil is taking the lead of the region’s economic recovery with Peru, Chile and Colombia following the path. Mexico should follow the footsteps of the US progressive recovery. Argentina still needs to fix its debt restructuring issue which it will hopefully achieve in 2010. After a great 4Q rally, financial markets seem to be pursuing a positive trend in early 2010. Equity and capital markets should keep a strong momentum while the bank market might reopen as banks will have re-adjusted their capital ratios . Given the strong demand for infrastructure financing, project financing should continue to recover with the support of multi and bilateral organizations such as BNDES, IADB, IFC and EIB. One can also see renewed interest from large US private equity funds which could tempt European PEs to enter the region.
    [Show full text]
  • Lehigh Preserve Institutional Repository
    Lehigh Preserve Institutional Repository Peru's Revolving Door of Political Parties Sargeant, Jadon 2017 Find more at https://preserve.lib.lehigh.edu/ This document is brought to you for free and open access by Lehigh Preserve. It has been accepted for inclusion by an authorized administrator of Lehigh Preserve. For more information, please contact [email protected]. PERU’S REVOLVING DOOR OF POLITICAL PARTIES Jadon Sargeant Introduction party system. This unique challenge is a direct result of the presidency of Alberto Fujimori The year 2016 was an election year in Peru. from 1990 to 2000. Viewed as both hero and Pedro Pablo Kuczynski, commonly abbreviated tyrant, he is a polarizing figure in Peru’s past to PPK, became president by a narrow margin, who left in his wake a broken and ineffective running for the center-right party Peruvians political system. Not much has changed since for Change. However, only 20 percent of his impeachment and later imprisonment, but Peruvians can identify the president’s party. In the election of 2016 may hold clues that the Peru, politics is a profoundly personal endeavor political tides are finally beginning to change. where parties merely serve as vehicles for candidates to reach office and have short life Peru’s Tumultuous Political History spans. Peruvians for Change was founded in October 2014, and it is likely that it will suffer Typically, when a country has sustained the same fate as other political parties and not economic growth and limited civil unrest, outlive their leader’s political career. The past the government is viewed favorably by its five presidents have all come from different citizens.
    [Show full text]
  • Con La Confianzaprohibida Su Reproducción Y/Odel Difusión
    P -4- ~ POLITICA .]uevcs 3 de m ,yo del 2018 El Gabinete Ministerial pasóla prueba Con la confianzaProhibida su reproducción y/odel difusión Apoyo ¯ El Gabinete encabezado por el primer ministro César VillaJmeva obtuvo la investidura con 94 votos a favor ° Fuerza Popular resaltó la"acütudy respeto" del titular de la PCM. de vida de todos los perua- "El Congreso necesita ser ren admiñrla, pero se nota. que dio tuvo una visión des- nos, así como enfrentar a la un aliado estratégico para ¿Dónde están para apoyar MASiNFORMAC]ÓN centralista y social y que eso m corrupción, el narcotráfico que podamos operar las le- a los ministros?", cuestio- generaba"esperanza". El consenso mostrado en los yla mineríaytalailegales. yes que este país necesita", nó. ~. El presidente Martín "Me queda claro que este últimos días se mantuvo en- El primer ministro ase- subrayó. La parlamentaria fuji- Vizcarra despidió en Pala- nuevo gobierno no será uno tre las bancadas parlamen- guró que el fenómeno de El Tras concluir su discurso, morista se mostró a favor cio de Gobierno al primer de lujo, da la impresión de tarias yanoche el Congreso Niño "también desnudó las Vfllanuevaescuchó adecenas del diálogo entre la opnsi- ministro César villanueva que será del pueblo. Esta- otorgó elvom de confianza falencias de nuestro Estado" de congresistas de todas las cióny el Ejecutivo.Adelan- yalresto dd Gabinete antes mos seguros de que quieren al Gabinete presidido por Cé- yreconocióque elproceso de bancadas con pedidos y pre- tó, desde el principio, que de que se dirigieran hacia el hacer las cosas bien", ma- sarW~lanueva.
    [Show full text]
  • Memorial Struggles and Power Strategies of the Rights in Latin America Today
    http://doi.org/10.17163/uni.n31.2019.01 Memorial struggles and power strategies of the rights in Latin America today Luchas memoriales y estrategias de poder de las derechas en América Latina hoy Verónica Giordano Teacher and Researcher UBA and CONICET [email protected] Orcid code: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7299-6984 Gina Paola Rodríguez Teacher and Researcher UNLPam and UBA [email protected] Orcid code: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1702-3386 Abstract Recently, right-wing forces of different origins and types have sprung up in Latin America. In this article, four countries are studied: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Peru. The first two correspond to cases in which the right-wing groups stand in opposition to the so-called progressive governments. The other two correspond to cases in which they stand in a political system with a strong continuity of predominance of right-wing forces. Since there are few studies with an overall perspective, this article seeks to make a contribution in that direction. The objective is to analyze the non-electoral strategies of construction and/ or exercise of power implemented by the right-wing groups around the memorial struggles. Based on the review of journalistic sources and speeches of the national right-wing referents, this article analyzes how current right-wing groups have proceeded to the institution of languages and the definition of a field of meanings that dispute the meaning of the recent past. From a comparative perspective, it is argued that in all four cases negationism offers an effective repertoire for these groups, which is used in their non- electoral (as well as electoral) strategies for building hegemony at the cultural level.
    [Show full text]
  • BTI 2020 Country Report Peru
    BTI 2020 Country Report Peru This report is part of the Bertelsmann Stiftung’s Transformation Index (BTI) 2020. It covers the period from February 1, 2017 to January 31, 2019. The BTI assesses the transformation toward democracy and a market economy as well as the quality of governance in 137 countries. More on the BTI at https://www.bti-project.org. Please cite as follows: Bertelsmann Stiftung, BTI 2020 Country Report — Peru. Gütersloh: Bertelsmann Stiftung, 2020. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. Contact Bertelsmann Stiftung Carl-Bertelsmann-Strasse 256 33111 Gütersloh Germany Sabine Donner Phone +49 5241 81 81501 [email protected] Hauke Hartmann Phone +49 5241 81 81389 [email protected] Robert Schwarz Phone +49 5241 81 81402 [email protected] Sabine Steinkamp Phone +49 5241 81 81507 [email protected] BTI 2020 | Peru 3 Key Indicators Population M 32.0 HDI 0.759 GDP p.c., PPP $ 14393 Pop. growth1 % p.a. 1.7 HDI rank of 189 82 Gini Index 43.3 Life expectancy years 76.3 UN Education Index 0.692 Poverty3 % 9.8 Urban population % 77.9 Gender inequality2 0.381 Aid per capita $ -0.2 Sources (as of December 2019): The World Bank, World Development Indicators 2019 | UNDP, Human Development Report 2019. Footnotes: (1) Average annual growth rate. (2) Gender Inequality Index (GII). (3) Percentage of population living on less than $3.20 a day at 2011 international prices. Executive Summary In the 2016 to 2018 period, the political changes that have taken place in Peru have been as numerous as they have been substantial.
    [Show full text]
  • PDF Agrupado
    P + <~ POI, ITIC\ M:lrles 29 de n<~~ iembre dc121116 La renuncia del ministro de Defensa SECOMPLICA Denuneiana e González El encargado de la Procura- duríaAnticorrnpción, Sum- ber Fernández, denunció al ex ministro de Defensa Ma- riano González por elpre- el amor sunto delito de negodadón incompatible en agravio del Estado yala abogadaLisse- te Ortega Orbegoso como cómplice primaria, señala- l’rimera baja en el Gal)inete. El jefe de la PCM, Fernando Zavala, confirma la salida ron fuentesjudiciales. Prohibida su reproducción y/o difusión Eneldocumentopresen- del Ejecutivo del ministro de Defensa, Mariano González- El presidente Kuczynski tado ayer en la tarde ante la afirma que no puede haber amor"a costa del Estado". fiscalía anticorrupción, se indica que existen indicios suficientes de la autoña de l "Yo creo en el amor tam- escándalo mediático yesto es este delito. FELIPL B,,~RBEROM, bién, pero no a costa del Es- Los primeros en salir en los Gabinetes una pésima señal", comentó. "El ex ministro se habría tado. Le agradezco mucho de inicio de los últimos tres gobiernos Por su parte, la congresis- procurado un beneficio No hubo un conflicto social, al ministro Mariano que me ta del Frente Amplio Marisa personal através del con- un caso de corrupción o una acompañó en la campaña", Glave dijo que existe preocu- trol sobre la vulnerabilidad censura. Estavez fue el amor expresó el mandatario. SALOMÓN LERNER GHmS pación porel supuesto segui- del bien jurídico que su po- lo que le costó la cartera de En tanto, Zavala manifes- El 10 de diciembre del 2011, el entonces miento a personas del Go- sición en el aparato público Defensa al ahora ex ministro tó que González le informó primer ministro del gobierno de Ollanta bierno.
    [Show full text]
  • The Fujimori Blessing to Martín Vizcarra's Presidency
    A REPORT OF COUNCIL 2501 Calvert St. NW, Suite 401 ON Washington, DC 20008 HEMISPHERIC (202) 223-4975 AFFAIRS [email protected] July 10, 2018 Where does Perú go from here: The Fujimori Blessing to Martín Vizcarra’s Presidency | by Jonathan Goodman Research Associate at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs To view this article online, please click here. Introduction The legacy of one of Peru’s cruelest presidents, Alberto Fujimori, has continued to afflict the political careers of succeeding Peruvian presidents and even his own children: Keiko and Kenji. Although it is naive to assert that Fujimori’s legacy and downfall have directly contributed to the environment of malfeasance in Peru’s legislature and executive office, his actions exacerbate the corruption nightmare that has plagued the Peruvian people for too long. On March 21, 2018, former Peruvian president Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (PPK) resigned from office, just four months shy of his two-year anniversary as president. With the current Peruvian constitution imposing five-year term limits for its presidents, PPK is the first Peruvian president in the 21st century to fall short of that five-year benchmark. Even so, all elected Peruvian presidents since Alberto Fujimori have been investigated for corruption, with many being COUNCIL ON HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS July 10, 2018 Where does Perú go from here: The Fujimori Blessing to Martín Vizcarra’s Presidency: by Jonathan Goodman indicted. [i] What are the implications of this corruption streak? During the 1992 auto-coup Fujimori dissolved the former bicameral congress, and then in his subsequent rule, he replaced it with a unicameral Congress.
    [Show full text]
  • Uruguay Latin America´S #1 Business Gateway
    2 3 Business Platforms for Life Sciences Companies in Uruguay1 Both pharmaceutical and medical device companies, combine different business platforms, taking advantage of Uruguay´s value proposition - stability, no restrictions on foreign exchange and repatriation of profits, outstanding tax exemptions, talent availability and quality of life, cold chain and logistics for access to Brazil and countries in the region minimizing time and costs. 1 R&D: Research & Development RDC: Regional Distribution Centers HQ-SSC: Regional Head Quarters or Shared Services Centers 4 Life Science Success Stories Roche has a Regional Supply Center in Uruguay which coordinates all logistic activities in Latin America. Also, the Center manages goods supply from the production centers to all its affiliates in the region. The main activities of the Regional Supply Center include: orders management, billing, and customer service. Thus, the Center has three different departments: Intercompany Operations, Supply Chain, and Transport. Each department ensures an alignment with regional interests and requirements. Shimadzu Corporation manufactures analytical tools for precision and measurement, medical imaging systems, aircraft equipment and other industrial equipment. Shimadzu Latinoamérica S.A, works as a Regional Distribution Logistics center throughout Latin America for medical equipment, and analytical equipment (precision balances, and laboratory equipment). The company has business offices, a warehouse and their Regional Headquarters in Uruguay, which they moved from Brazil in 2013. HQ, SSC, Trading & Procurement Merck settled in Uruguay in 1996. The company develops logistic and business services lead by regional and global positions. The operation has grown steadily, following Merck’s growth in Latin America, and currently 80 employees work in both platforms.
    [Show full text]
  • Al Otro Lado De La Luna Del Asunto
    Domingo 10 de junio del 2018 -35- OPINIÓN LA APROBACIÓN DEL GOBIERNO DEL PRESIDENTE MARTÍN VIZCARRA LA COLUMNA DEL DIRECTOR El quid Al otro lado de la luna del asunto as “lunas de miel” de los La percepción de que el gobier- presidentes con la ciu- no carece de liderazgo se hace evi- JUAN JOSÉ “El gobierno debe saber que Garrido dadanía en el Perú son dente cuando se pregunta por sus la ciudadanía espera más cortas. Si definimos relaciones con el Congreso de la fi rmeza en el comando. La Koechlin operativamente el fin República. El 64% piensa que el concertación es el mejor Director periodístico de la luna de miel como el momen- Ejecutivo está siguiendo lo que camino, pero no es el único”. Lto en que la desaprobación supera quiere la mayoría parlamentaria de El Comercio a la aprobación presidencial, estas mientras solo 12% que hay una re- duran en promedio poco más de 6 ALFREDO lación equilibrada con el Congreso meses. La duración fue menor en el Torres* y 16% de liderazgo del Ejecutivo. Es pusilánime”. “Es un gobierno dé- caso de Alejandro Toledo, mayor en En contraposición, 54% quisiera como ocurrió esta semana con la oposición bil”. “No tiene pantalones”. “No tienen los casos de Alan García y Ollanta que haya una relación de coopera- al proyecto de ley que plantea que la Super- rumbo, plan o propuesta”. Son algunas Analista político Humala y exactamente 6 meses en el ción mutua entre ambos poderes, intendencia de Banca y Seguros supervise a de las frases que le han endilgado al caso de Pedro Pablo Kuczynski.
    [Show full text]
  • Types of Semi-Presidentialism and Party Competition Structures in Democracies: the Cases of Portugal and Peru Gerson Francisco J
    TYPES OF SEMI-PRESIDENTIALISM AND PARTY COMPETITION STRUCTURES IN DEMOCRACIES: THE CASES OF PORTUGAL AND PERU GERSON FRANCISCO JULCARIMA ALVAREZ Licentiate in Sociology, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos (Peru), 2005. A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS in POLITICAL SCIENCE Department of Political Science University of Lethbridge LETHBRIDGE, ALBERTA, CANADA © Gerson F. Julcarima Alvarez, 2020 TYPES OF SEMI-PRESIDENTIALISM AND PARTY COMPETITION STRUCTURES IN DEMOCRACIES: THE CASES OF PORTUGAL AND PERU GERSON FRANCISCO JULCARIMA ALVAREZ Date of Defence: November 16, 2020 Dr. A. Siaroff Professor Ph.D. Thesis Supervisor Dr. H. Jansen Professor Ph.D. Thesis Examination Committee Member Dr. J. von Heyking Professor Ph.D. Thesis Examination Committee Member Dr. Y. Belanger Professor Ph.D. Chair, Thesis Examination Committee ABSTRACT This thesis analyzes the influence that the semi-presidential form of government has on the degree of closure of party competition structures. Thus, using part of the axioms of the so-called Neo-Madisonian theory of party behavior and Mair's theoretical approach to party systems, the behavior of parties in government in Portugal (1976-2019) and Peru (1980-1991 and 2001-2019) is analyzed. The working hypotheses propose that the president-parliamentary form of government promotes a decrease in the degree of closure of party competition structures, whereas the premier- presidential form of government promotes either an increase or a decrease in the closure levels of said structures. The investigation results corroborate that apart from the system of government, the degree of closure depends on the combined effect of the following factors: whether the president's party controls Parliament, the concurrence or not of presidential and legislative elections, and whether the party competition is bipolar or multipolar.
    [Show full text]
  • Measuring Populism Worldwide Faculty Research Working Paper Series
    Measuring Populism Worldwide Faculty Research Working Paper Series Pippa Norris Harvard Kennedy School February 2020 RWP20-002 Visit the HKS Faculty Research Working Paper Series at: https://www.hks.harvard.edu/research-insights/publications?f%5B0%5D=publication_types%3A121 The views expressed in the HKS Faculty Research Working Paper Series are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the John F. Kennedy School of Government or of Harvard University. Faculty Research Working Papers have not undergone formal review and approval. Such papers are included in this series to elicit feedback and to encourage debate on important public policy challenges. Copyright belongs to the author(s). Papers may be downloaded for personal use only. www.hks.harvard.edu Measuring Populism Worldwide: Norris 1/8/20 8:50 PM Measuring Populism Worldwide Pippa Norris McGuire Lecturer in Comparative Politics John F. Kennedy School of Government Harvard University Cambridge, MA 02138 [email protected] www.pippanorris.com @PippaN15 www.GlobalPartySurvey.org Data: https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataverse/GlobalPartySurvey. Synopsis: Populism studies have rapidly burgeoned but nevertheless systematic cross-national evidence about this phenomenon has lagged far behind. How can populism be measured in ways which are consistent, valid, and reliable? To address this issue, Part I outlines the minimalist concept of populism used in the study. Part II summarizes the pros and cons of previous attempts at gauging and classifying party ideological values and issue positions in general, as well as recent studies seeking to classify populists as a distinct party family. Part III describes the research design employed to construct the Global Party Survey, replicating the methods of previous expert surveys but expanding coverage worldwide and including innovative measures of populist rhetoric.
    [Show full text]