DOCSLIB.ORG

Diapositiva 1

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Diapositiva 1 Latina Finance & Co Corporate Finance Advisory in Latin America Latin America 2009 Political, Economical and Financial snapshot January 2010 Latina Finance & Co www.latinafinance.net Table of contents 1. Introduction 2. Latin America political 2009 3. Latin America economical 2009 4. Latin America financial 2009 5. Latam – Europe business 2009 6. Outlook 2010 7. Contact 8. Disclaimer Latina Finance & Co 2 1 . Introduction We are very happy to provide you with a quick overview of what has been the year 2009 in Latin America. It is not an extensive review but much more a snapshot which should hopefully provide you with a helicopter view of what has been a very interesting year. We have now entered 2010 and the prospect for this year is encouraging with continuous political stability in the key countries of the region and confirmation of an increasing democratic environment. Brazil is taking the lead of the region’s economic recovery with Peru, Chile and Colombia following the path. Mexico should follow the footsteps of the US progressive recovery. Argentina still needs to fix its debt restructuring issue which it will hopefully achieve in 2010. After a great 4Q rally, financial markets seem to be pursuing a positive trend in early 2010. Equity and capital markets should keep a strong momentum while the bank market might reopen as banks will have re-adjusted their capital ratios . Given the strong demand for infrastructure financing, project financing should continue to recover with the support of multi and bilateral organizations such as BNDES, IADB, IFC and EIB. One can also see renewed interest from large US private equity funds which could tempt European PEs to enter the region. Finally we could also see the confirmation of a new trend in the M&A flow with more and more Latin American companies completing offshore acquisitions. We hope you will find this quick brief interesting. The Latina Finance team will remain committed and at your disposal throughout 2010. Florent Michel Managing partner January 2010 Latina Finance & Co 3 2 . Latin America political 2009 POLITICS 2009 DIPLOMACY EVENTS Still a continent of two blocks with profound Honduran army removed President political differences between the countries Manuel Zelaya of the region Venezuela increased border tensions Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador and Nicaragua with Colombia on US base presence pursuing their anti capitalist (US) path. Fujimori in Peru sentenced for 25 years Chile, Mexico, Peru, and Colombia keeping warm relations with the United States; the Brazil will host 2016 Olympics ( & soccer United States has free trade agreements world cup 2014) (FTAs) with the first three. Colombia’s one should be ratified soon. Ahmadinejad visited Brazil, Bolivia and Venezuela Brazil has clearly reinforced its regional leadership under Lula’s presidency. Chile joined the OECD Argentina relatively isolated but Countries for the “Bolivarian entertaining good relationship with her alternative” agreed to use a common neighboring countries currency for their trade in 2010 Latina Finance & Co 4 2 . Latin America political 2009 POLITICS 2009 ELECTIONS CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGES Some presidents took the advantage of local Peru , Alan García political stability to convince parliaments to make favorable constitutional changes. Costa Rica, Oscar Arias Felipe Calderon ( Mexico) and Luis Inacio Nicaragua, Daniel Ortega Lula de Silva (Brazil) obtained constitutional changes to permit one further term each. Bolivia, Evo Morales Hugo Chavez ( Venezuela)and Evo Morales Ecuador, Rafael Correa (2nd term) (Bolivia) have managed to change the constitution to no limits in mandate terms. Uruguay, Jose Mujica Alvaro Uribe Vélez (Colombia) could run for a Chile, Sebastian Piñera (Jan 2010) third mandate in 2010 if referendum approving second reelection passes. Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua obtained approval for potential reelection. Latina Finance & Co 5 3 . Latin America economical 2009 ECONOMICS 2009 MACRO PICTURE 2009 The damage created by the world financial crisis had substantial effects on Latin America. However one can say that the region has GDP -2,5 %* relatively better resisted the crisis wave . Latam countries benefited from recent years of more sophisticated and rigorous economical and fiscal policies. Net net the situation is MEXICO -7 % not catastrophic with an end 2009/beg 2010 showing some signs of recovery. Mexico suffered the most (given interpenetration with the US) while Brazil, Peru, Colombia, Argentina, Bolivia, and Uruguay EXPORTS -24 % resisted remarkably. Latin American countries were mostly hurt by the combination of four factors. IMPORTS -25 % FDI -40 % Foreign direct investment Tourism M&A -30 % Commodity prices Foreign remittances Overall drop in imports by 25% and export by 24% for the LAC region. Biggest drop since 1937. Export drop of 42% in mining and petroleum sectors * OECD estimate could be revised down to 1,8 % (ECLAC) Latina Finance & Co 6 3 . Latin America economical 2009 ECONOMICS 2009 BUSINESS EVENTS Super Brazil: Rio won the Olympics (us$ 50 bio in investments planned for the next six years) Super Peru: Peru's signed free trade agreements with China and the United States and also with Korea. At the same time the Japan-Peru investment agreement entered into force in December. Peru had the biggest FDI increase of all Latam countries in 2009 (+28% at us$ 6,2bio). Venezuela entered into recession, worst GDP fall of Latin America (-2,3 %). Recession as well for Ecuador. Argentina still stuck with its debt problem and has not resolved the us$ 6 bio Club de Paris issue. Pursuing nationalization. Super China : China has been negotiating deals to double a development fund in Venezuela to us$12 bio, lent to Petrobras us$ 10 bio and Ecuador us$1 bio to build a hydro power plant. China also supported Argentina’s trade. Latina Finance & Co 7 4 . Latin America financial 2009 FINANCIAL MARKETS 2009 BANK MARKET PROJECT FINANCING 25 42 10 20 08 09 08 09 Total Latam loan volume (us$ Bio) source IFR Total Latam PF loan volume (us$ Bio) source Pfi Total loan volume fell down from us $ 25 bio in 08 to circa Continuing drop of interest of commercial banks, higher us$ 10bio in 09. Banks in latam continued to finance loan pricings, shorter tenors, more contrainuous covenants growth with domestic sources of funding. Profitability and and debt security packages in general. ECAs and loan portfolio quality remained good except for Mexico Multilaterals presence were absolutely key to close deals (consumer portfolios) (including BNDES). Calyon, Mitsubishi, West Lb and BNP led the pack in 2009. Exit of numerous European retail banks and also US banks creating a shortage of liquidity. Handful of international Focused on mining , natural resources and energy. Key banks remained active such as BBVA, Santander ,HSBC, deals included Brazilian Hydro-plants (Jirau & San Calyon, and BNP Paribas. Antonio)for us$ 11bio. Minera copper Esperanza us$ 1,05 bio loan, us$300 MM 16.5 yr loan for Central Transactions limited to restructurings, bi-laterals or clubs Termoelectrica Andina (Chile), and us$680.7mm loan for deals ( 5 yr max).Largest deals included the us $ 1.5bn 3/5 the Manzanillo LNG project(Mexico). IFC us$153mm A/B year deal by Grupo Mexico (Asarco acquisition) and loan for Pan American Energy (Argentina) . In the road Brazilian pulp and paper Fibria for us$ 1 bio. sector a us$ 895mm loan was signed for Sao Paulo Beltway. Panama received a us$ 2,3 bio financing for the canal (involving 5 MLAs). Latina Finance & Co 8 4 . Latin America financial 2009 FINANCIAL MARKETS 2009 CAPITAL MARKETS RATINGS Some changes took place in 2009 but Latin America is still a world of three different classes with first four IG 65 countries, Chile, Mexico, Brazil and Peru. Then the “to be” IG which are countries that could potentially 22 become investment grade in 2010 like Colombia or 08 09 Panama. Lastly, some countries continue to struggle and Total Latam bond volume up to Nov 09 (us$ Bio) source IFR remain close to default rating such as Argentina or Bolivia (both B-) . Absolute record year contrary to the rest of emerging markets where total bond issuance fell to usd$ 350 bio -Key rating actions of the year included: from 420 in 08. Very weak 1st half with lack of appetite and under writers. Wake up call in Sept starting an astonishing 2nd half rally . In November Latam had tripled 16 Dec : Peru’s upgraded by Moodys to the amount issued in 08 . Including series of Baa3 ( IG) restructuring and distressed offerings : Vitro (Mex) us$ 1,29 bio senior note restructuring. Caribbean Cap Cana 23 Sept :Brazil upgraded by Moodys to exchange offer by offering us$136 mm in senior secured Baa3 (IG) notes. Nov/ 15 Dec : Mexico downgraded to Bond volumes issuances skyrocketed in both sovereign BBB, Baa3 and corporate areas. Brazil leading the way by far. Flurry of 10 & 15 year sovereign (Peru,Chile), Brazil up to 32 years in Oct. Large corporate issuances of Vale, Braskem, Petrobras ( us$ 4 bio, 10 and 30 yrs 4x oversubscribed). Latina Finance & Co 9 4 . Latin America financial 2009 FINANCIAL MARKETS 2009 EQUITY MARKETS PRIVATE EQUITY Private Equities showed more interest. Brazilian funds 95 have been set up. Some countries are keeping regulatory 50 constraints (Mexico, Argentina) and some key businesses 18 remain family owned which still limits opportunities. Attraction goes to Mexico, Brazil, Colombia & Peru. World Asia Latam IPO volume in 2009 (us$ Bio) Some funds are already set up led by US Private equity firms such as Carlyle
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Uruguay Latin America´S #1 Business Gateway
    2 3 Business Platforms for Life Sciences Companies in Uruguay1 Both pharmaceutical and medical device companies, combine different business platforms, taking advantage of Uruguay´s value proposition - stability, no restrictions on foreign exchange and repatriation of profits, outstanding tax exemptions, talent availability and quality of life, cold chain and logistics for access to Brazil and countries in the region minimizing time and costs. 1 R&D: Research & Development RDC: Regional Distribution Centers HQ-SSC: Regional Head Quarters or Shared Services Centers 4 Life Science Success Stories Roche has a Regional Supply Center in Uruguay which coordinates all logistic activities in Latin America. Also, the Center manages goods supply from the production centers to all its affiliates in the region. The main activities of the Regional Supply Center include: orders management, billing, and customer service. Thus, the Center has three different departments: Intercompany Operations, Supply Chain, and Transport. Each department ensures an alignment with regional interests and requirements. Shimadzu Corporation manufactures analytical tools for precision and measurement, medical imaging systems, aircraft equipment and other industrial equipment. Shimadzu Latinoamérica S.A, works as a Regional Distribution Logistics center throughout Latin America for medical equipment, and analytical equipment (precision balances, and laboratory equipment). The company has business offices, a warehouse and their Regional Headquarters in Uruguay, which they moved from Brazil in 2013. HQ, SSC, Trading & Procurement Merck settled in Uruguay in 1996. The company develops logistic and business services lead by regional and global positions. The operation has grown steadily, following Merck’s growth in Latin America, and currently 80 employees work in both platforms.
    [Show full text]
  • Latin Business Chronicle
    Latin Business Chronicle Monday, April 27 2009 Updated at 08:00 AM. Reports Opinion Statistics Technology Countries Companies Topics Sectors You are not logged in | Log in | Create Account Perspectives 12:00 AM Back to Perspectives Home Thursday, April 23, 2009 Premium Subscription Summit of the Americas: Much Ado About Nothing Advertising Info Free Weekly Newsletter Searching for substance in the Jobs at LBC summit's declaration is akin to looking for a polar bear in a Archives snowstorm. Crisis & Latin America BY JERRY HAAR Latin America Outlook Summits of the Americas traditionally Latin Security Index have been vacuous, mind-numbing Leader of the Year conventions of inter-American heads Top 500 Companies of state and their acolytes in which Presidents Barack Obama and Hugo Chavez at the Summit of the Top 100 M&As pompous, sermon-style pontifications Americas. (Photo Alfonso Ocando/Venezuela President's Office) Top 50 Ports and amorphous and anodyne declarations—substance-free and Globalization Index coma-inducing—are delivered to the Latin Business Index press and whoever else has a lot of Latin Technology time on their hands. Index Key Conferences In this regard, the recently concluded People On the Move Fifth Summit of the Americas in Books Trinidad and Tobago did not disappoint. Searching for substance in Glossary Trinidad Prime Minister Patrick the 21-page Declaration is akin to Manning signs the final declaration. (Photo: Fifth Summit of the Americas) About LBC looking for a polar bear in a Media Kit snowstorm. Platitudes, hopes, aspirations, and altruistic pledges Press & News Font Size ..... laden in non-specifics embody the Español Declaration—a document issued Privacy Policy before not after the Summit ended Poll Terms of Use (sort of like going to the theater to Contact Us watch a movie, then returning home Should the US end its Cuba to boot up the computer and watch embargo? the trailer).
    [Show full text]
  • Tuesday, May 08, 2007 Latin Business: Best & Worst BY
    Tuesday, May 08, 2007 Latin Business: Best & Worst Best for doing business: Chile, Mexico and Uruguay. Worst: Haiti, Bolivia and Nicaragua. BY CHRONICLE STAFF Chile cements its position as the best country in Latin America to do business in, according to the second annual Latin Business Index from Latin Business CONGRATULATIONS! Presidents Chronicle. Felipe Calderon of Mexico and Michelle Bachelet of Chile in "Chile is actually a developed developing Mexico City in March. They lead country," says Jerry Haar, a professor of the two best countries in Latin management and international business and associate director of the Knight Ridder Center for America for doing business. (Photo: Excellence in Management in the College of Mexican President's Office) Business Administration at Florida International University. "It's not Belgium, but it's not Bolivia either." Font Size ..... Kathleen Barclay, the Chile-based former executive with JP Morgan Chase who chairs the Association of American Chamber of Commerce in Latin America, also sings the country's praises. "Doing business in Chile is straightforward - there is sustainable economic growth and solid political institutions," she says. "The rules of the game are clear and investors - foreign or domestic - are given the equal treatment. Most importantly, when doing business with Chile you deal with quality people who have high ethical standards, The challenge to be successful in Chile is to be competitive." Mexico, Latin America's second-largest economy, came in second. However, Uruguay replaced Costa Rica as Latin America's third-best country to do business in. The index of 19 countries looks at five key categories and 28 subcategories to measure the recent, current and future business environment in a country.
    [Show full text]
  • Using Social Power to Balance Soft Power: Venezuela's Foreign Policy
    Javier Corrales Using Social Power to Balance Soft Power: Venezuela’s Foreign Policy President Hugo Cha´vez of Venezuela has achieved what no other Latin American leader has since the end of the Cold War: bringing security concerns in the Western Hemisphere back to U.S. foreign policy. Might Venezuela provoke a war against neighboring Colombia, spread weapons among insurgents abroad, disrupt oil sales to the United States, provide financial support to Hezbollah, al Qaeda or other fundamentalist movements, offer safe havens for drug dealers, invite Russia to open a military base on its territory, or even acquire nuclear weapons?1 These security concerns did not exist less than a decade ago, but today they occupy the attention of U.S. officials. Attention to these conventional security issues, however, carries the risk of ignoring what thus far has been Venezuela’s most effective foreign policy tool in challenging the United States: the use of generous handouts abroad, peppered with a pro-poor, distribution-prone discourse. While the U.S. debate revolves around ‘‘hard power’’ and ‘‘soft power,’’2 this other form can be called ‘‘social power diplomacy.’’ Similar to hard power and soft power, social power diplomacy allows the projecting nation to attract allies but through different means. With social power diplomacy, other nations are not necessarily cajoled into bowing to the economic or military might of the projecting nation, as is the case in the realm of traditional hard power politics. Also, nations are not necessarily attracted to the magnetic appeal of the projecting nation’s ideology and values, as is the case with the realm of soft power politics.
    [Show full text]
  • Uruguay | Prime Location for IT Companies
    Uruguay | Prime location for IT companies 1 [email protected] | www.smartservices.uy “My first trip to Uruguay was eye-opening. I had no idea that this small country had so much to offer. From the impressive universities, the entrepreneurial spirit, and magnificent coastline, it is clear that Uruguay is poised to step onto the world stage.” Tina Seelig, Faculty Director of the Stanford Technology Ventures Program (STVP), Stanford University 2 [email protected] | www.smartservices.uy Success Testimonials “Verifone operates in Uruguay since 2006 when Trintech operations were acquired. Since that time up to now the diversity of skills and talented staff found in the country has allowed to consolidate Uruguay as one of the Centers of Excellence from where we provide support and services for our customers around the world.” Rafael Cuenca, VP Engineering, Verifone “Netsuite started business in Uruguay on May 2012 by acquiring two Uruguayan companies. Uruguay was a key component to start a whole new strategy of an eCommerce product called SuiteCommerce. We are creating the product and providing the implementation service from Uruguay to customers in the whole world.” Diego Terra, eCommerce Director, Netsuite “The main problem of our industry is the lack of talents, and in Uruguay there are very competitive human resources. We need a mixture of technically good people for software development and also with English language skills, because they have to work with English speaking clients continuously. Uruguay is one of the places where we found the best mixture of both conditions.” Bernardo Manzella, Uruguay Country Manager, Globant “We decided in favor of Uruguay for three main reasons.
    [Show full text]
  • Iran in Latin America Threat Or ‘Axis of Annoyance’?
    IRAN Wilson Center Reports on the Americas • # 23 Woodrow I N LA TI N A IRAN IN LATIN AMERICA M E R Threat or ‘Axis of Annoyance’? I C A Threat or ‘ A xis of A nnoyance’? EDITED BY Cynthia Arnson Haleh Esfandiari and Adam Stubits Latin American Program Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20004 Tel. (202) 691-4030 Fax (202) 691-4076 www.wilsoncenter.org/lap Latin American Program Middle East Program IRAN IN LATIN AMERICA: THREAt or ‘AXIS OF ANNOYance’? Latin American Program Middle East Program IRAN IN LATIN AMERICA: THREAt or ‘AXIS OF ANNOYance’? Edited by Cynthia Arnson, Haleh Esfandiari and Adam Stubits Woodrow Wilson Center Reports on the Americas # 23 The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars is the national, living memorial honoring President Woodrow Wilson. In providing an essential link between the worlds of ideas and public policy, the Center addresses current and emerging challenges confront- ing the United States and the world. The Center promotes policy-rele- vant research and dialogue to increase understanding and enhance the capabilities and knowledge of leaders, citizens, and institutions world- wide. Created by an Act of Congress in 1968, the Center is a nonpartisan institution headquartered in Washington, D.C., and supported by both public and private funds. Lee H. Hamilton, President and Director Available from the Latin American Program Board of Trustees Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Joseph B. Gildenhorn, Chair One Woodrow Wilson Plaza Sander R. Gerber, Vice Chair 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue NW Washington, DC 20004-3027 Public members: James H.
    [Show full text]
  • Outside Players in Latin America (I): China
    Outside Players in Latin America (I): China Carlos Malamud 4/12/2007 Working Paper50/2007 (Translated from Spanish) Outside Players in Latin America (I): China Carlos Malamud Summary1 In recent years China’s prolonged and sustained economic growth has fuelled a considerable rise in Latin American exports of raw materials (hydrocarbons, minerals, food, etc) to the Chinese market and, at the same time, an increased growth in the region’s economies. Introduction In recent years China’s prolonged and sustained economic growth has fuelled a considerable rise in Latin American exports of raw materials (hydrocarbons, minerals, food, etc) to the Chinese market and, at the same time, an increased growth in the region’s economies. This was confirmed more recently by the visit of the Chinese President Hu Jintao and other senior officials of the Chinese government to several countries of Latin America.2 At the same time, but in the opposite direction, numerous Latin American leaders, from all over the region and from different ends of the political spectrum, making pilgrimages to China’s capital and its main cities, seeking to consolidate the business opportunities that have arisen in recent years, lure new investment for their respective countries and boost bilateral relations. These many trips in each direction confirm a mutual and relatively new discovery, which speaks of the countries’ interest in each other. The trend will certainly grow and at times move at surprising speed. This mutual interest has spurred high expectations on both sides, some of them viable and others totally disproportionate and exaggerated. And if they are not met to a significant extent, this could lead to acute frustration, especially for Latin America.
    [Show full text]
  • Marcelo Maria Giugale,Phd
    MARCELO MARIA GIUGALE, PHD Marcelo Giugale is the former Director of the World Bank’s Department of Financial Advisory and Banking Services—the team of professionals who help governments in emerging and developing countries manage their assets, their debts, and their risks. A former Director of country, sector, and practice Departments, and an international development leader, his thirty years of experience span the Middle East, Eastern Europe, Central Asia, Latin-America, and Africa, where he led senior-level policy dialogue and over thirty billion dollars in lending and insurance operations across the development spectrum. An Adjunct Professor at Georgetown University and a Fellow of the US National Academy of Public Administration, he has published on macroeconomic policy, finance, subnational fiscal rules, development economics, business, agriculture, and applied econometrics. Notably, he was the chief editor of collections of policy notes published for the presidential transitions in Mexico (2000), Colombia (2002), Ecuador (2003), Bolivia (2006) and Peru (2006). In 2017, he authored the second edition of “Economic Development: What Everyone Needs to Know”, a featured volume by Oxford University Press. His opinion editorials are published in the leading newspapers and blog-sites of the USA, Europe, Latin-America, and Africa. He received decorations from the governments of Bolivia and Peru, and taught at the American University in Cairo, The London School of Economics, and the Universidad Católica Argentina. A citizen of Argentina
    [Show full text]
  • 1 Are Latin America's Corporate Elites
    Are Latin America's corporate elites transnationally interconnected? A network analysis of interlocking directorates Global Networks: A Journal of Transnational Affairs (2014, forthcoming) Author Julian Cardenas Affiliation Research fellow Lateinamerika-Institut Freie Universität Berlin Rüdesheimer Str. 54, 14197 Berlin, Germany Assistant Professor Department of Sociology Universidad de Antioquia Calle 67 nº 53-108, Medellin, Colombia Email: [email protected] Research financed by: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG), grant number CA1271/1-1 1 Are Latin America’s corporate elites transnationally interconnected? A network analysis of interlocking directorates Abstract Conflicting perspectives appear when thinking about the emergence of a cohesive transnational corporate network in Latin America. On the one hand, regional political integration, foreign investment growth, increased cross-border mergers and acquisitions, cultural and linguistic homogeneity may have fostered transnational networks among Latin America’s corporate elites. On the other hand, domestic-based business groups, family control and trade orientation to the USA may have hindered the emergence of a cohesive transnational corporate network in Latin America. On the basis of a network analysis of interlocking directorates among the 300 largest corporations in Latin America, I inquire whether the region’s corporate elites are interconnected at the transnational level and form a cohesive transnational corporate network. I found few transnational interlocks,
    [Show full text]
  • Colombia in Perspective
    COUNTRY IN PERSPECTIVE COLOMBIA Colorful Colombian Bus Flickr / Pedro Szekely DLIFLC DEFENSE LANGUAGE INSTITUTE FOREIGN LANGUAGE CENTER COUNTRY IN PERSPECTIVE | COLOMBIA TABLE OF CONTENT Geography Introduction ................................................................................................................... 6 Geographic Regions and Topographic Features ................................................... 7 Mountains..............................................................................................................7 Plains .....................................................................................................................8 Climate ........................................................................................................................... 9 Rivers and Lakes ........................................................................................................10 Major Cities ..................................................................................................................11 Bogotá ................................................................................................................. 11 Cali ....................................................................................................................... 12 Medellín ............................................................................................................... 13 Barranquilla ........................................................................................................ 14 Cartagena
    [Show full text]
  • Commercial Biotechnology in Latin America: Current Opportunities And
    Fernando Quezada Commercial biotechnology in is Executive Director of the Biotechnology Center of Excellence Corporation, a Latin America: Current Massachusetts-based organisation advising international public and private opportunities and challenges sector agencies in biotechnology development Fernando Quezada Date received: 11th October 2005 programmes. He served on the Presidential Commission for Biotechnology Development for the Republic of Chile and as Abstract Consultant to the UN The unparalleled growth of commercial biotechnology in the USA and Europe during the past Economic Commission for two decades has also been marked by its steady development in Latin America. Brazil, Cuba, Latin America and the Argentina, Chile, Mexico and others have made significant strides in building their research and Caribbean. production capacity in modern biotechnology. As these countries have pioneered new biotechnology applications in agriculture, mining, biofuels, human and animal healthcare a number have also launched national biotechnology plans with long-term investment commitments. Newly formed biotechnology trade associations in the region are expanding their membership and rapidly gaining international visibility. Along with the growth of commercial biotechnology in Latin America comes the need to address a series of issues associated with public perception, regulatory framework and intellectual property protection, financing mechanisms, workforce development and more. Government agencies and related public institutions are challenged to adjust
    [Show full text]
  • In Search of Lost Optimism. a Year of PPK
    : SPECIAL REPORT In search of lost optimism. A year of PPK Madrid, July 2017 Barcelona • Bogota • Buenos Aires • Havana • Lima • Lisbon • Madrid • Mexico City • Miami • New York City • Panama City • Quito • Rio de Janeiro • Sao Paulo Santiago • Santo Domingo • Washington, DC IN SEARCH OF LOST OPTIMISM. A YEAR OF PPK 1. INTRODUCTION One year and one day after he started his term, 1. INTRODUCTION LLORENTE & CUENCA Peru reflects onThe Dreams of President 2. A YEAR OF PPK Kuczynski1. At that time, two potential scenarios were discerned 3. OPTIMISTIC START for how the country could evolve. On the one hand, possible 4. IMPASSE IN THE peaceful political coexistence between the PPK and Keiko Fujimori CONSTITUTIONAL DESIGN that would assure stable governing conditions and sustainable 5. CLOUDS ON THE HORIZON economic growth and, on the other, a state of permanent conflict 6. ECONOMY UNDER POLITICAL between the legislative and executive powers that would cast its PRESSURE shadow over political stability and private investment. 7. RECOVERING OPTIMISM 8. IN SEARCH OF LOST OPTIMISM Today, one year after analyzing these two possibilities, we know AUTHORS that the difficulties in managing to create harmonious coexistence between a government without parliamentary support and an opposition with legislative majority is one of the reasons for the growing censure that Pedro Pablo Kuczynski has been suffering. The LLORENTE & CUENCA Latinamerica Public Affairs team has prepared an assessment that not only analyses the main factors that have caused the political turbulence that Peru has experienced, but also considers a new outlook for his second year of mandate. This analysis sets out the main milestones that have shaped this first year of the PPK government, and that marks the course for what could happen in the next, an analysis that is essential for understanding what is actually taking place in Peru.
    [Show full text]