Seismic Hazard Study of Postulated Blind Thrust Faults

TABLE 2-1 SOURCE MODEL PARAMETERS SONGS Seismic Study

Page 1 of 3

Model 1-Strike Slip Model of the NI-SCOZD-RC considered to be an active seismogenic source. The characterization In this model, the Oceanside detachment is not Hills Blind (Risk Engineering, 1995, Appendix A). The San Joaquin as a strike-slip fault system follows the IPEEE source characterization are of activity (PA) of 0.5. Thrust faults west of the SCZOD as a potential seismogenic fault source with a probability fault is included (i.e., local strain partitioning) or they do not because they are linked with the strike-slip fault at depth interpreted to be non-seismogenic ______.______Dowudip extend to seismogenic depth. Rupture Depth (kin) Total Depth (km) Downdip Slip(mm/vr) Rate Fault Name Length (km Len h kin) -.. IModel (Weight)l 32 (0.3) . . .-. 148 12 (0.6) 900 0.81.5 (0.6)(0.2) Zone of 43 (0.4) 15 (0.4) Newport-Inglewood-Offshore 2.1 (0.2) Deformation (NI/SCOZD) 75 (0.2) [IPEEE Model A (0.50] 116 (0.1) 10 (0.6) 52 18 (0.2) 900 1.o0(0.2) 15 (0.4) Rose Canyon (RC) 34 (0.5) 1.5 (0.6) [IPEEE Model A (0.501 52 (0.3) 3.0 (0.2) 12 (0.6) 900 30 (0.4) 0.1 (0.3) 15 (0.4) Newport-Inglewood (NI) 70 40 (0.5) 0.8 (0.5) [IPEEE Model B (0.5)] 70 (0.1) 1.5 (0.2) 32 (0.3) 10 (0.6) 900 1.O0(0.2) Canyon 115 Offshore Zone of Deformation-Rose 43 (0.4) 15 (0.4) 1.5 (0.6) (RC/SCOZD) 52(0.1) 2.1 (0.1) [IPEEE Model B (0.5)] 75(0.1) 3.0 (0.1) 115 (0.1) Based on fault dip and (0.7) Top 1 (1.0) 37 25 corrected uplift rate' San Joaquin Hills Blind Fault 37 (0.3) Bottom intersection 30tW (0.3) (minus regional (SJBF) Ano1I IA A\ 0.11(0.2) [PA = 0.51 with NI 50°W (0.3) component) of 0.15 (0.6) 0.17 (0.2)

the San Joaquin Hills rate of (0.21-0.27 n/kyr) based on uplifted marine terraces in I The corrected uplift rate equals the late Pleistocene uplift other processes (e.g., rift shoulder thermal isostasy) minus a regional background rate (0.1 m/kyr) that may be due to TABLE 2-1 SOURCE MODEL PARAMETERS SONGS Seismic Study

Page 2 of 3

Model 2- Independent OBT and Strike Slip Faults active seismogenic source. Two alternatives are In this model, the Oceanside blind thrust (OBT) is considered to be an fault (SJBF) is linked (i.e., is a backthrust) to the OBT. If considered, depending on whether or not the San Joaquin Hills blind the OBT (i.e., linked), it is not considered as an independent the SJBF is modeled as a backthrust forming a wedge structure with does not extend to seismogenic depth). In this case the seismic source because it intersects the OBT at a depth of 5 km (i.e., NI (NI-short). When the SJHBF is not linked with OBT is extended north to Newport Beach (OBT-long) resulting in a shorter SJBF is considered an independent seismogenic source (PA the OBT, the NI is extended to south of Dana Point (NI-long) and the fault following the characterization presented in = 0.5) that is bounded on the west by the NI. The RC is modeled as a strike-slip Risk Engineering (1995, Appendix A). ._...... Downdip Slip Rate Fault Name Total Rupture Depth (km) Geometry (mm/yr) [Model (Weight)] Length (km) I Length (km) See Logic Tree (Figure 2-19) Oceanside Blind Thrust (OBT) NI(Short) (0.4) 30 12 (0.6) 900 0.1 (0.3) Newport-Inglewood Onshore (NI) 65 (0.2) 40 (0.5) 15 (0.4) 0.8 (0.5) NI (Short) 65(0.1) 1.5 (0.2) 97 (0.8) NI (Long) NI (Long) 30 (0.3) 40 (0.5) 65(0.1) 97(0.1)

10 (0.6) 900 1.51.0 (0.6)(0.2) Rose Canyon (RC) 52 3418 (0.5)(0.2) 15 (0.4) 3.0 (0.2) 51 M 3ý TABLE 2-1 SOURCE MODEL PARAMETERS SONGS Seismic Study Page 3 of 3

Model 3-OBT Oblique

upper crust above an oblique fault plane (OBT-OBL) In this model, the OBT and SCOZD-RC represent strain partitioning in the independent strike-slip fault. A simplified fault plane at depth (Alternative D, Rivero and others, 2000). The NI is modeled as an blind thrust as provided by Rivero (written based on the location and dip of the northern segment of the Oceanside in the vicinity of SONGS. Following Rivero and others communication, October 3, 2001) is used to model the fault source range of slip rate values (1.19 to 2.91) given by Rivero and (2000) a maximum magnitude of Mw =7.6 is used. In addition to the angle of 220 (calculated from the weighted average strike others (2000) an intermediate slip rate value of 1.7 mm/yr with a rake slip and contractional rates) is used.

Oceanside Blind Oblique OBT (OBL) TABLE 3-1 SELECTION OF SCIGN GPS STATIONS

Staticn Installation Date Considerations Used in Evaluation

Stable displacement rate values, long duration, a good Yes catl 6/25/95 candidate for the offshore reference site for OBT

No cat2 6/14/00 Moving east wrt cat 1. short duration

No corx 11115/00 Too far south, missing data for a perod of time

ecfs 7/12/01 Recent station No Seasonal fluctuation due to ground water pumping, No fvpk 7/30/98 ground water basin edge effect

fluctuation No Ibcl 8/25/98 Too far north, pronounced seasonal No Ibc2 8/25/98 Too far north, possible fluctuation (Long Beach area) No mipk 7/12/01 Recent station

long duration Yes monp 4/1/94 "Behind" OBT, and west of Elsinore, "Behind" OBT, somewhat short duration, a possible Yes nsss 7/6/00 southernmost choice "Behind" OBT, and west of Elsinore, somewhat short Yes oghs 6/2/99 duration

sacy 5/26/99 Too north, seasonal fluctuation, and gaps No

gap between 2000.1 &2001.8 No sbcc 11/8/99 Relatively short duration, 2000 No scip 9/23/97 West of San Clemente, gap after

No scms 8/11/98 Gap before 1999.5. slight seasonal fluctuation No sio3 3/18/93 Seasonal fluctuation, gap

of interest Yes trak 6/2/94 Long duration, the northernmost station No vtis 10/24/98 Too far north, gap before 2000 fluctuation, no gaps, behind OBT, Note: It is desirable to choose GPS stations with long recording duration, no not separated with too many faults, and within the area of interest. TABLE 4-1 Mean Horizontal Ground Motions (g) at Various Probabilities of Exceedance SONGS IPEEE

Acceleration - g Probability Spectral Weighted* 25Hz 10Hz 5Hz 2.5Hz 1Hz 0.5Hz 2.109 6.302 1.00E-08 2.712 5.315 6.962 6.816 4-938 1.128 3.290 1.72E-06 1.516 2.813 3.972 3.461 2.060 0.858 2.537 1.OOE-05 1.198 2.157 3.044 2.714 1.550 2.262 2.00E-05 1.071 1.919 2.696 2.443 1.376 0.758 1.656 1.OOE-04 0.795 1.402 1.964 1.799 1.007 0.54,3 0.504 1.534 1.39E-04 0.735 1.301 1.810 1.673 0.934 0.458 1.407 2.OOE-04 0.674 1.195 1.652 1.542 0.857 0.283 0.884 1.OOE-03 0.423 0.729 1.029 0.985 0.544 0.221 0.675 2.OOE-03 0.334 0.552 0.783 0.755 0.423 0-261 I 0.136 0.403 6.OOE-03 0.197 0.323 0.462 0.454 0.106 0.310 1.OOE-02 0.154 0.248 0.355 0.350 0.203 j

Weighted spectral acceleration is computed as follows: Note: 2 Weighted Sa=(1/2 Sa¶cH+ Sa5Hz+Sa2.sHZ=1/ Sa12 zj3 where, Sa,• is the spectral acceleration for x Hz. TABLE 4-2 of Exceedance Ground Motions (g) at Various Probabilities Mean Horizontal 2001

spectral acceleration is computed as folows: Note: Weighted 2 ýY3 Weighted Sa=(12 Sa,0w÷ Sae,+Sa2.,u+11 Sa 1 where. Sa=u Is the spectral acceleration for x Hz. -'A N\'V

34 3

C"N, ..%

Ort S - I -J ½ ( SONGS\ / \ , *•\

-- 33 &,• " \.33

Scale Aproximate •

FAULT RECENCY CLASSIFICATION

- Faults thalt cispaes Holoene L- 10 m) or latest Pleistocene, L- 20 Ia) de~posits or geomorphie surfaree

-- Faults that displace late Quaternary 1- 780 ka) deposits or gem6pi surfae -- Quaternary faults (1.8 M.) Fir.,miRisk Engineering (1995): Sources of data include Fischer -- Faults that displarse phe Quatemnary dieposits Receny of and Mills (1991 ), Jennings last daisplfaceent for offshore faults gpenerally not fnorms (1992), and Legg and Kennedy Only seieotedf faults than Jennings It1992)are sh ownh (1991).

QUATERNARY FAULT MAP, SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA Figure SONGS Seismic Issues 2-1

C-½- CLA - Compton-Los Alamitos trend; SAS - Santa Ana segment; NIF - Newport Inglewood Fault; NM - Newport Mesa; SJH - San Joaquin Hills; NB - Newport Beach; DP - Dana Point; B&G - Bohannon and Geist line 120; A-A', B-B', C-C'; selected profiles from Harvard dataset. Profile C-C' shown as Figure 3C. (From Mueller and others, 1998b) ;,

SHOWING So MAP OF SIMPLIFIED ONSHORE GEOLOGY OF ORANGE COUNTY LOCATIONS OF SAN JOAQUIN HILLS AND OFFSHORE FOLD AXES SONGS Seismic Issues Pacific SantaRiver Ana LAB O cean r','

Marbe A. Kinematic model of blind thrust faulting and It-,•ernces terrace uplift beneath San Joaquin Hills (Grant et al., 1999). (From Rivero and others, 2000.) LAB - Los Angeles basin; NIFZ - Newport .,,e Inglewood fault zone.

B. Migrated seismic reflection profile imaging offshore extension of this fold system, which has developed above west-dipping back-thrust. TWTT - two-way traveltime; s - seconds. (From Rivero and others, 2000.) -2

Oceanside detachment and the blind C. Interpreted seismic line C-C' from Harvard dataset. Note the southern extension of the San Joaquin thrust in its hanging wall which we interpret to be related to the by west vergent slip on the Hills anticline. These form a wedge-thrust structure which is formed the upper blind thrust; underlying detachment. Note the narrow east-facing forelimb formed above and compressive fault-related reflectors define fold geometry related to rollover on the detachment by the back limb of the upper fold, which folding. Note also where the continental slope appears folded sea level low stands may have eroded we interpet to indicate its currently active nature. Erosion during the crest of the fold on the shelf. (From Mueller and others, 1998b) Fiur STRUCTURAL INTERPRETATION OF Figure 2 POSTULATED 2-3 SAN JOAQUIN HILLS BLIND THRUST Seismic Issues 0 SONGS 6; S:\5300\5388\001\task-04\ssc O0 0 iq2 04(20)aa 120' 119 * 118, I

WESTERN TRANSVERSE RANGES Sm HiIt GbrO,

"41 11 SanM'gUe S..•• . .(EPG)i. • "•• SantaSanaicruzi. Cruz 1. 8"1 - : ..stibu, ,J_•• •':"

Fgure 0 a

-~Beac PEISLF R I: a;o F. 1 1 "-'

of inferred LAB-lB rift boundaries (heavy lines), principal Fault and geographic map of onshore and offshore southern California showing detailed location locations of known and inferred surface and subsurface onshore late Cenozoic hanging-wall listric normal faults along margins of rift (thin hachured lines), triangles), and major San Onofre Breccia outcrops (blackened occurrences of Miocene San Onofre Breccia (small open circles), Catalina Schist basement (open indicate sense of Pliocene and younger shortening. A, B, C, Tso); adapted from Vedder and Howell (1976) and Stuart (1979a, 1979b). Teeth on selected faults Core Hole No. 1; EPG - Eocene Poway Group. and D on rift boundary indicate inferred join points for rift restoration. MSCH No. 1 - Mobil San Clemente (Modified from Crouch and Suppe, 1993)

OF CROSS SECTIONS AND SEISMIC PROFILES Figure MAP SHOWING LOCATION SONGS Seismic Issues 2-4 Santa Monica(Future) Mtns.- Simi Hills

(Future) (xI) (x) North South Vaqueros Catalina Schist (Franciscan belt)

Peninsular Ranges (Granitlc/WFH belt)

Fore-arc (GVS belt)

Capistrano Embayment ire) Miocene Crislianitos East(y,) (San Onofre Breccia) (F~ult)0

Miocene (Igneous rock)

~ \'~I 10

Miocene (Strata)

Late Miocene Reconstruction -, 20 (horizontal vertical scale) (not all features to scale) (See Figure 2-4 for locations)

and extrusion and intrusion of Miocene detachment faults in hanging wall, Catalina Schist metamorphic core in footwall, Note high-angle normal and low-angle Simi Hills-Santa Monica Mountains at about early-late Miocene (lower Mohnian) time. North-south section through volcanic and igneous rocks; structure inferred Coast fault; PVF - Palos in part, from Campbell and Yerkes, 1976; Yeats, 1987). MCF - Malibu and east-west section through San Joaquin Hills (modified, Valley belt; Ku - Upper Cretaceous strata; Pal - Paleogene strata; GVS - Great Verdes fault; NIFZ - Newport-lnglewood fault zone; WFH - Western Foothills strata. (From Crouch and Suppe, 1993.)

STYLE OF CRUSTAL EXTENSIONS GENERALIZED SCHEMATIC SECTIONS ILLUSTRATING THE SUGGESTED WITHIN THE LAB-LB RIFT SONGS Seismic Issues S:\5300\5388\001\taSI( 04'sc01\izsc 0110\-fig-06(12).ai 61)

Gulf of Santa Catalina East End of Line 120 (V.E. approximately 2:1 at 3800 m/s) Northeast Southwest TWTT TWTT Shot 20 (s) (s) Shot 520 0

Breakaway zone

From Bohannon and Geist (1998) (See Figure 2-4 for location.)

\TED SECTION) SHOWING OCEANSIDE DETACHMENT Figure OF LINE 120 (MIGRA 2-6 DETAILED PART OF EAST END eismic Issues SONGS S 022

0,z

0300

0 3 r0

0- C0

r 0)00 ý,- -. > 16 0Vid

cj~z> :\:x•uu\o•oo•uu ••L,•_04LSSC_0110\fi• .... \vvt..i

A\530\3 \0 \tk04S 10 i2-(0)a

•2,hmnrinp Fhia-Thruat-Belt Q-bmarine Fold-Thrust-Belt SW A Extensional Structure (Rollover) (D E F -2

NE SW C ?! :":i'::i:;:i::..:•-: radCo ntrction alFoiding ,•: :

.2 O -3 I 0 0 .3 ý

and continuous reflections dipping to east define A: Migrated seismic reflection profile imaging segment of thrust south of Lasuen Knoll. Sharp seafloor fold scarps. This contractional deformation location of thrust. Note shallow fold-and-thrust belt above Oceanside thrust that produces (Neogene) extensional rollover structure buried by does not affect thrust; thus, we interpret Oceanside as basal thrust of sequence. Note old image of Oceanside thrust northeast of Coronado Banks. Pliocene and younger strata preserved on west end of section. B: Migrated seismic sedimentary units and forming broad seafloor slope. C: Oceanside thrust motion is reflected by broad, contractional fold involving shallow wall of Oceanside thrust east of Crespi Knoll. Fault is defined Migrated seismic reflection profile across Carlsbad thrust, which resides in hanging seafloor scarp. Unit S is Miocene and Oligocene(?) by offset of top basement reflection, and produces contractional fold with pronounced 1 -1.1; datum is sea level; s - seconds. Section traces are synextensional strata. S1 and S2 are grouped where undifferentiated. Vertical scale is shown in Figure 2-7A. (From Rivero and others, 2000) FI ur

)E THRUST AS IMAGED IN SEISMIC REFLECTION PROFILES Figure GEOMETRY OF OCEANSID SONGS Seismic Issues 2-8 S:;,.vS,\5300\5388\001\task_04\ssc_ oo v == _4SC0 01 1\fr.10\ fig-2-09(06).ai. vf-

0 Newport-InglewoodFault Zone

0.0.

" 1.0.

0 2.0

3.0 fault by younger (post-early Pliocene?) shortening that has also Migrated CDP seismic reflection 49-102. V.E. = 2.0 at sea floor. Note reactivation of detachment of Miocene-Pliocene strata into Newport-lnglewood trough and produced an overlying fold and thrust belt. Also note both eastward and westward thickening 1993) structural inversion of these strata; see Figure 2-4 for location. (From Crouch and Suppe,

Figure INTERPRETED SEISMIC LINE 49-102 Figure SONGS Seismic Issues 2-9 ...... ~~.• •: \" \ I / i.sm LC 3.000 S...... -. .000 - ~ 3500~ ...... ,1991) • 2.50\0,,

(From Fischer and Mills

FigL CROSS SECTION ALONG JEBCO LINE 49-102 OFF SAN MATEO POINT SONGS Seismic Issues 2_1

33° 2 i- 33' IV

S33' 10' , •: ! 3W33' 17 '- 33 1O~CARLSBAD

ENCINrI'AS

~DELMARl

0 1 0 2 0 K ilom e te r s T O RRE T PINo 0 5 10 Miles

(From Fischer and Mills, 1991)

GEOLOGIC SETTING OF THE INNER MARGIN FROM THE PALOS VERDES PENINSULA Fi TO THE SILVER STRAND 2 SONGS Seismic Issues &jI 0 10 km .- z-

SRELICT BEACH RIDGE

- RELrCT SEA CLFF

FAULT

'LOMAPOINT

13: NESTOR (118 ka) 14: BIRD ROCK (81 ka)

13 MOUNTA14SOLEDAD

ANONOFRE BLUFF 13

ridges in coastal San Diego Map showing emergent Pleistocene strandline terraces (from oldest to youngest numbered 1 through 15) and beach escarpment along the seaward County. Strandlines 3 through 10 lie on an elevated coastal plain, and strandlines 11 through 14 are cut into the steep terrace platforms. An extrapolated uplift rate of edge of the plain. The relict beach ridges are part of the accretionary marine deposits that overlie the Several of the terraces are offset 0.21 m/k.y. derived from strandline 14 at Torrey Pines yields tentative ages of 920 ka and 520 ka respectively. others, 1975). Strandline data northwest of San across the Rose Canyon fault (RCF) and the La Nacion fault (LNF) (Kennedy, 1975; Kennedy and Onofre from Ehlig (1977). (From Lajoie and others, 1992)

MAP SHOWING MARINE TERRACES IN COASTAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY SONGS Seismic Issues LEGG, '79 MOORE '72 ZIONY and othiers, 74 GREENE and others,'79

MESAý Inc., 1985 CLARKE, '80 CLARKE and others, '87 SOUTHERNEDISON, CALIFORNIA 1988 and this paper

- Oceanside; CB - Carlsbad; Location abbreviations are as follows: DP - Dana Point; SONGS, San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station; OC SCZOD - South Coast Zone of EN - Encinitas; DM - Del Mar; LJ - La Jolla; CF - Cristianitos fault; NIFZ - Newport-Inglewood Fault Zone; Fischer and Mills, 1991) Deformation; RCFZ - Rose Canyon Fault Zone; SOOF - San Onofre-Oceanside Fault. (From

1972 - 1988 PREVIOUS INTERPRETATIONS OF THE NEWPORT-INGLEWOOD FAULT ZONE FROM SONGS Seismic Issues 117W K

Fault trace biwrcadon - > Newport left-step

San Onofre left-sep

2(fasprh

Carlsbad-EncknAw Ov"rOeP 33 N

40°La Jolla aspeity > and reaivag bend

I - Point Loam Block

0 10 20 30 40KlUonw~ws S ...... 0 5 10 15 20 milice

(Modified from Fischer and Mills, 1991)

THE NEWPORT-INGLEWOOD - SCOZD-ROSE CANYON FAULT ZONE, SHOWING MAJOR FAULT SEGMENTS AS CHARACTERIZED IN RISK ENGINEERING (1995) SONGS Seismic Issues ;:\5300\5388\001\taskS:5300\5388\001\ta~k_04\SSC 04•ss¢_0110•fi•_2-16/10)-ai 01 10\jfig_2-16(1 0).ai

CONFIGURATIONS ALTERNATIVE SSC MODELS (Rivero and others, 2000) (This Study) A

Model 1 Strike-slip fault sources (NI/SCOZD/RC) and San Joaquin Hills blind fault source (SJBF).

______I. Not modeled based on shallow depth (<5-6 km) of the northern segment of the OBT west of SCOZD and lack of direct evidence for activity (link to coastal uplift) for southern segment.

_ 1I_ Independent strike-slip faults (NI and RC) and blind thrust (OBT).

Oblique Slip Model (OBT and RC/SCOZD modeled as a single oblique slip fault). NI is an independent strike slip fault.

POTENTIAL CONFIGURATIONS FOR THRUST AND STRIKE-SLIP FAULT INTERACTIONS SONGS Seismic Issues 0

moment'releaseRegion of low during earthquakes

5 } Transition zone

Brittle Region of large Deformation Regional strain partitioning -moment release 10 during earthquakes

I Base of selsmogenic zone or change in rheologlcal properly of crust 5 15-i Ductile Deformation EXPLANATION t•Displacement ; Oblique strain intlithosphere ' toward viewer

sO Displacement ® Saway from viewer

Idealized section of upper lithosphere, illustrating features of regional and local strain where large-moment partitioning. Regionally partitioned structures originate at crustal depths as separate release earthquakes nucleate and should be characterized independently separate seismic sources seismic sources. Locally partitioned structures are not necessarily sources. (From Lettis and should be characterized collectively to assess underlying seismic and Hanson, 1991)

_q cý

0 SCHEMATIC SHOWING REGIONAL AND LOCAL STRAIN PARTITIONING SONGS Seismic Issues S.so•uoo~v\5300\5388\001\task-04\sse-01 t= 4SC01\i 10\ fig-2 -8a18.ai

SOURCES MODELS SJBF STRUCTURALLY SEGMENTATION LINKED TO OBT NIF/SCOZD/RC NI/SCOZD MODEL A RC [0.5] SJBF (PA = 0.5)

F• ArrEI 1 N/A NIF/SCOZD/RC f NI (SS) MODEL B RC/SCOZD (0.7) [0.5] SJBF (PA = 0.5)

NI (short) RC OBT(N) - (long) OBT(S)

f NI (short) RC OBT (long)

NI NI (long) Newport-lnglewood Fault 0.5) SJBF (PA = OBT RC Oceanside Blind Thrust OBT(N) (short) OBT(S) (N) Northem segment (S) Southern segment (OBL) Oblique NI (long) RC SJBF (PA = 0.5) Rose Canyon Fault RC SJBF [0.05] OBT (short) San Joaquin Hills Blind Fault SCOZD MODEL 3 South Coast Offshore (COMBINED NI Zone of Deformation YFR NO OBT (OBL) U OLI UU r-; ' 8li l -E (0.05) I] .UJ Li.VJ

Note: See Table 2-1 for summary of source parameters.

SEISMIC CHARACTERIZATION LOGIC TREE SONGS Seismic Issues 04•ssc 0110•_fLv 2-23.ai

.t5300\5388\001\task:\5300\5388\OO1\task 04\ssc-O1 10\'jig-2-23.ai

SLIP RATE SJBF RUPTURE SEISMOGENIC LINKAGE LENGTH (km) DEPTH (km) (mm/yr) SEGMENTATION

35 [0.2] 51 [0.6]

82 [0.2]

35 [0.4] 49 [0.6]

[1.0]

OBT (MODEL 2) [0.8] 35 [0.4] 51 [0.6]

17 YES [0.1] 35 [0.4] 49 [0.6]

Note: 0 OBT (N) - tip 2.8 km deep; 14 ENE dip OBT (S) -tip1.4 km deep; 24' ENE dip Unsegmented OBT -geometry from OBT (N) segment adjacent to SONGS

OCEANSIDE BLIND THRUST (MODEL 2) SOURCE CHARACTERIZATION LOGIC TREE Figure

SONGS Seismic Issues 2-19 MAP SHOWING MODEL 1 FAULT SOURCES SONGS Seismic Issues MAP SHOWING MODEL 2 FAULT SOURCES SONGS Seismic Issues ...... •,,• .... i241-ai

•;•o.•o0\5388\001\task;:\6300\5388\OO1\task,04\ss~c.O1 O\_fig 2-22(24).a~i

MAP SHOWING MODEL 3 FAULT SOURCES Figure SONGS Seismic Issues 2-22 .7 I I I .7 I I I i

.6 - SCOZD-RC Model B

C .2

0 .7

".- .4

-,.3 .2

0 7

0 C .3 .2

0 L 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.55.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 Magnitude Magnrtitude

MAXIMUM MAGNITUDE DISTRIBUTION PLOTS SONGS Seismic Issues .7I I

.6 OBT(S) San Joaquin blind fault SJBF .5

•c3 .4. .4

.O3 .2

o I I I I .7

.6 OBT(N)-iong OBT(N)-short

,1-3 4:3.4 r.03 O .3

.6 OBT-long OBT-short

.4 .o 3 .4 ~ 3

.1 0 II i

8.5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.55.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 Magnitude Magnitude

MAXIMUM MAGNITUDE DISTRIBUTION PLOTS SONGS Seismic Issues I I I I I I I. j I I I I I I I I ' , 0 0 90 1-

80 - Io o 00 0 0 ------.. ..------.. -. o-.. --. ----.. . 0- --..-- -0- 70 0 0 0 oQ o 0000 0 0 0 0 o 60 -00 0 1000 0 00 0 0o 0 0 0 0 0 0 l %100 -L- ) 50 ' 0 00 0 %8 (0 &0&1 o0 00 40 _%000 8 oo 0 10 0 301- 0 0 20[- 0 I REVERSE SLIP 101- NORMAL SLIP STRIKE SLIP I I I I I I I I I I 0 I I I I I I 80 90 -90-80-70-60-50-40-30-20-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Rake

60 STRIKE SLIP NORMAL REVERSE n=53 n - 87 50 N=33

W 41 0tL 31 zr

0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 "LJi20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 0 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60O 80 90 FAULT DIP DIP FAULT DIP FAULT

the number of Plot of fault dip versus rake angle for 173 earthquakes. Frequency distributions show 1990; Wells and earthquakes having particular dips, as a function of sense of slip. (From PGandE, Coppersmith, 1991)

PLOT OF FAULT DIP VERSUS RAKE ANGLE FOR HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKES SONGS Seismic Issues SCIGN GPS LOCATIONS

SONGS Seismic Study ...zcUU I r-VjeCI.L~I JU ...

SONGS SITE SCIGN GPS LOCATIONS NEAR Figure 3-2 SONGS Seismic Study ApnjS oiwsieS SONOS

SNOI.LVOO-1 SdO (Z NOIS113A) 030S

-0 olkVv d 0'%,kVW Sao

Bi JOWOV OM- 09 0 09

PJARP Sze S

04 oiqE!p a tin die_ * -* I RLIand oialid -0 oijal

)V4

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TECTONIC PLATES AND RELATIVE DISPLACEMENT RATES

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RELATIVE DISPLACEMENT OF OGHS WITH RESPECT TO CAT1

SONGS Seismic Study a) Schematic Illustration of Strike-Slip Fault

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ci: U-. A B's

Perspective View Plan View

b) Likely Relative Displacement Rates for Strike-Slip Fault

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...... ýO Fault 't Plane Direction

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Driving Driving Forces Forces Perspective View Plan View

b) Likely Relative Displacement Rates for Thrust Fault

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Figure ILLUSTRATION OF RELATIVE DISPLACEMENT RATES FOR THRUST FAULT 3-7 SONGS Seismic Study a) Example of Reported Displacement Rates and Associated Errors cat1 position time series (filtered)

E z

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b) Displacement Rate Vector c) Reported Error Ellipse and Error

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DIFFERING DURATIONS OF GPS MEASUREMENTS

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Error Ellipse B

Displacement Rate Vector B Displacement Rate Vector A

Relative Displacement Rate Vector of A with respect to B

"Unreported" Other Error Sources

Error Ellipse A-B

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SELECTED SCIGN GPS STATIONS & PAIRS

SONGS Seismic Study A Ag !b

GPS Relative Displacement Rate Model Geometry Vector & Slip Rate Vector

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Model Geometry & Slip Rate Vector

C.;

U 6

L. SLIP RAT VECTOR 0- RELATIVE DISPLACEMENT RATE VECTOR AND 2 2 THRUST FAULT SONGS Seismic Study a) Patterns of GPS Relative Displacement Rate Vectors 4-

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b) Single GPS Relative Displacement Rate Vector

A E Model Geometry & Slip Rate Vectors D ton• GPS Relative Displacement Rate CD Vector ca

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AO A 4- ,I, C

I D

Model Geometries & Slip Rate Vectors GPS Relative Displacement Rate Vectors

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0, & Slip Rate Vector ca GPS Relative Displacement Rate Vectors

SONGS Seismic Study a) Actual Case

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SCIGN GPS STATIONS - CAT1 & TRAK

SONGS Seismic Study 2001 Projects\01 050B SONGS...\Figures\Fig3-22.grf

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1 0.2

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a) Summary Plot b) Associated Histogram of Slip Rate Vector Tips

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2 -Icatl-monp 2 cati-trak 2 catl-oghs E-W Velocity - mm/yr E-W Velocity - mm/yr E-W Velocity - mm/yr -0 -2 11\2 4 6 -2 6 2 4 6 -2 I -"4 -2 - -2 -2

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-4 E -6

-8

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SLIP RATES SUMMARY PLOT OF TOTAL RELATIVE DISPLACEMENT RATE VECTOR TIPS & 1 Figure MODEL 3-23 SONGS Seismic Study 2001 Pro•jcts\01050BProjects\0l 050B SONGSSONGS...\l•i•lures\Pi•l;•-z4-•lrT ...\i-gures\Fig3-24.grf

2 -catl-monp 2 catl -trak 2 catl-oghs E-W Velocity - mmlyr E-W Velocity - mm/yr E-W Velocity - mmlyr

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2 , 4 E-4 -6 8 i d- -8 z

-10

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2 catl-oghs 2 catl-monp 2 catl-trak E-W Velocity - mmlyr E-W Velocity - mm/yr E-W Velocity - mm/yr I• 0---0 - -2 i -2 2 4 -6 -2 2 4 6 -2 2' 4 6 -2 -2 -2

f +p -4 E tE -4 E '-64 + E

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& SLIP RATES SUMMARY PLOT OF TOTAL RELATIVE DISPLACEMENT RATE VECTOR TIPS MODEL 3 Figure SONGS Seismic Study 3-25 _20012001 Projects\01Projects\01050B 050B SONG~SSONG•...\l-i•lures\Pl•l•-Z•.•ln ...\Figures\Fig3-26.grI

1 catl-oghs 1 -catl-monp E-W Velocity - mmtyr E-W Velocity - mmlyr

0 1 2 3 -1 1 2 3 -1

-1 -2 -

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SUMMARY PLOT OF INCREMENTAL RELATIVE DISPLACEMENT RATE VECTOR TIPS & SLIP RATES MODEL 1 Figure 3-26 SONGS Seismic Study •uN•...\r-I•lUreS\rl•lO-/I.•fl .2UU12001 Projects\wII-'ro•ects\u'lu•)uu 050B SOG ...kiguresiriya-4I .yI

1 catl-oghs E-W Velocity - mmnyr mm/yr X 2 3 2 3 -1 3 1 -1\ -1

-2 E C *I-3 0 0

4 C- z z z -5 -5

1 -catl-nsss E-W Velocity - mm/yr * GPS Model 1 2 3 -1 * Model Average -1 -10-

-2 0',

Note: Scale shown on incremental summary plots z is twice that of the total summary plots. -5

SUMMARY PLOT OF INCREMENTAL RELATIVE DISPLACEMENT RATE VECTOR TIPS & SLIP RATES MODEL 2 Figure SONGS Seismic Study 3-27 2001 Projects\01Projects\01050B OSOB SONGSSONGS...\Fi•lures\Fi•13-28.•lrf ...\Figures\Fig3-28.grf

catl -trak 1 catl-oghs 0 E-W Velocity - mmlyr E-W Velocity - mnmyr r o -1 1 2 3 2 3 -1 1 2 3 -1 -1 -1 -1

^ 4 '- -2 -2 -2 -2 E E i -3 -- 3 ~%-3 0 -1 0 ,-4 c-4 -4 z z I -5 -5 -5

1 E-W Velocity - mmlyr

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-2

-3

-4 Note: Scale shown on incremental summary plots z is twice that of the total summary plots. -5

& SLIP RATES SUMMARY PLOT OF INCREMENTAL RELATIVE DISPLACEMENT RATE VECTOR TIPS MODEL 3 Figure 3-28 SONGS Seismic Study CHARACTERIZATION OF SEISMOGENIC SOURCES SPECIFICATION OF RECURRENCE RELATIONSHIP

SEISMIC HAZARD

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PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS (PSHA) .METHODOLOGY SONGS Seismic Study Strike-Slip Dip-Slip

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WEIGHTED HAZARD CALCULATION

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lx1 0-3

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SONGS IPEEE HAZARD CURVES

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SONGS IPEEE WEIGHTED HAZARD CURVE

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SONGS Seismic Study 61 1x10-2

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EFFECTS OF OBT ON HAZARD CURVES

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2.5

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EFFECTS OF OBT ON RESPONSE SPECTRA

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lxi 2

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2.5

2 0) Q C 1.5 O0

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lx 0-3 0) U

0 lx 0-4

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lx 0-6

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2.5

2 0

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EFFECTS OF FLING STEP ON RESPONSE SPECTRA Figure 0 A 4-18 a SONGS Seismic Study 1x1 0-2

lx1 0-3

LI 4 0

0 (L lx1i04

lxi 0-5

lxi 06 0 1 2 3 4 5 Spectral Acceleration - g

COMPARISON OF HAZARD CURVES SONGS IPEEE & 2001

0 0 c'J SONGS Seismic Study lx1 0-2

"a,

4. 0

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CONTRIBUTION OF SEISMIC SOURCES TO 2001 HAZARD CURVES

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lx10-3

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COMPARISON OF WEIGHTED HAZARD CURVES SONGS IPEEE & 2001 SONGS Seismic Study THIS PAGE IS AN OVERSIZED DRAWING OR FIGURE,

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