ALERT LEVEL: SENEGAL NO ALERT Monthly Food Security Update WATCH NOVEMBER 2006 WARNING EMERGENCY Summary On the whole, a review of the 2006/2007 growing season shows normal levels of precipitation compared with the historical average for 1971-2000. However, parts of Matam, Linguère, Thiès and Goudiry are reporting rainfall deficits, while the Podor, Saint Louis, Dakar, Mbour, Kaolack, Ziguinchor and Cap Skirring stations are all showing surpluses. A look at streamflow conditions for this past season shows small flood waves on waterways around the country and a water deficit situation since the beginning of the rainy season. Though plant health conditions have been relatively quiet, there were reports of grain-eating birds threatening irrigated rice crops in the Senegal River Valley late in the season. The downward trend in grain prices since the end of September continued into the month of November. There is a slight improvement in the levels of grain reserves, particularly in the north (in the Saint-Louis and Louga regions). The juxtaposition of these two factors has significantly improved the household food situation. Seasonal calendar DRY SEASON: Seasonal migration by livestock, vegetable-growing season, off-season crops, flood-recession crops, mass rural-urban Start of the 2006/2007 growing season migration Weeding – Field clean-up – 2nd dressing Dec 06 Jan 07 Feb 07 Mar 07 Apr 07 May 07 Jun 07 Jul 07 Aug 07 Sep 07 Oct 07 Nov 07 Harvest Land preparation Planting Harvest Current hazards summary • On the whole, the condition of pastureland is satisfactory, except in the Matam – Linguère – Tambacounda triangle, where brush fires raging since the beginning of October have caused major damage. Food security conditions After a tough lean period for the Senegalese population, there has been a visible improvement in the food situation since the last dekad of September with the first round of harvests of cowpea, maize and millet crops and shipments of watermelons and short-cycle groundnut crops to market. The consumption of these green crops has eased food problems in rural areas but, more importantly, the sale of these crops has brought in extra income. Progress of the 2006-2007 growing season The 2006-2007 growing season got off to a good start in June. The rains gradually settled in, allowing for the planting of crops, with this year’s planting season extended until the end of July and the beginning of August. There was a dry spell late in June in the Ziguinchor region and in the first and second dekads of July in the eastern part of the country. These “average” rainfall conditions and the low rainfall rates reported in Guinea Conakry have created critical streamflow conditions, similar to conditions in a so-called dry year, with waterways around the country reporting low water levels, which is expected to limit flood-recession and off-season crop production. FEWS NET/Senegal Tel : +221 820 18 60 Address : BP29955 Aéroport FEWS NET is funded by the US Agency for International Development Fax : + 221 820 18 65 L.S.Senghor Code Postal 14542 www.fews.net E-mail: [email protected] Dakar Senegal SENEGAL: MONTHLY FOOD SECURITY UPDATE NOVEMBER 2006 Plant health conditions have been relatively quiet in most parts of the country, with the exception of a few localized reports of traditional pest infestations (by grasshoppers, caterpillars and plant lice), whose impact on area crops is still generally limited. However, this respite of sorts was disrupted by a heavy concentration of grain-eating birds threatening irrigated rice crops in the Senegal River Valley. On the whole, the condition of pastureland is satisfactory, except in the Matam – Linguère – Tambacounda triangle, which has seen very little rain. This triangle, which is the grazing area of choice for migratory animal herds out of the north, will be under very heavy pressure during the dry season, particularly in the wake of poor pasture production since October and with the area consumed by brush fires. The combination of average rainfall conditions, dry spells, a certain amount of pressure from plant health issues and problems with preparations for the growing season has reduced the size of areas under crops, as well as crop yields, particularly in the case of groundnuts. This, in turn, had led to the conversion of fields generally planted in groundnuts to other crops, mainly to millet. Furthermore, current harvest forecasts are down from last year’s figures. Thus, harvest forecasts estimate grain production at 1,084,295 MT, which is down 24 percent from last season and 4 percent below the five-year average. At-risk areas According to data collected from agricultural and Map 1: Zones at risk (red areas) meteorological experts on risk factors associated with the early part of the rainy season (the rainfall deficit in the southeast and localized 10-to-20-day-long dry spells), the delay in the provision of seeds, fertilizer and farm implements, limited supplies and corresponding quality issues, pest infestations (grasshoppers, caterpillars) and the presence of grain-eating birds, the areas potentially vulnerable to food insecurity problems appear to lie in: • the northeastern and eastern parts of the country; • Kaffrine department (the rural communities of Maka Yop, Malem Hoddar, Ribo Escale); • Bambey department (the rural communities of Keur Samba Kane, Réfane, Gawane); and • Podor department (the Diéri area). Recommendations by the joint CILSS/FAO/FEWS NET Note: This map was drawn up based on findings by the mission and data furnished by mission call for an improvement in targeting procedures to agricultural officials. Source of data on vectors: CSE (Environmental Monitoring Center). Source: CILSS/FAO/FEWS NET Mission pinpoint actual at-risk communities and population groups in these areas. Markets In the wake of recent harvests, supplies of locally grown grain crops have visibly improved since last month on all markets monitored by FEWS NET. The downward trend in prices for locally grown grain crops since the end of September continued into the month of November. A comparison with October of this year shows prices down everywhere but on markets in the southern part of the country (in Kolda, Ziguinchor and Bignona), where prices have reportedly inched upwards. City marketplaces in Tambacounda (17.5 percent), Diourbel (16.8 percent) and Kaolack (12.8 percent) are reporting the steepest drops in prices (Figure 1). Prices are up from November of last year in Dakar, Diourbel and Kolda, but are down from last year in all other city marketplaces, particularly in Ziguinchor where prices have dropped by more than 22 percent. 2 SENEGAL: MONTHLY FOOD SECURITY UPDATE NOVEMBER 2006 Figure 1: Millet price trends on regional capitals (as of Figure 2: Millet price trends on rural markets (as of November 23, 2006) November 23, 2006) Average 2001-05 NOV 05 OCT 06 NOV 06 250 Average 2001-05 NOV 2005 OCT 2006 NOV 2005 275 225 250 200 225 175 200 175 150 150 125 125 100 100 75 75 Average millet price (FCAF/kg) price millet Average Average retail millet price (CFAF/kg) 50 50 25 25 0 BAMBEY GOUILLE MPAL OUROSSOGUI PASSY POROKHANE BIGNONA 0 MBEUTH R A IS R A CK GA U K TICK U O A A LA UNDA THIES D F KOLD LO T.L O INCHO AO S C U DIOURBEL K A MB ZIG A T Source of data: CSA/SIM (Food Security Commission / Market Source of data: CSA/SIM (Food Security Commission / Market Information System); Graphic by FEWS NET Information System); Graphic by FEWS NET November prices in the central part of the country (the Fatick, Kaolack, Louga and Thiès regions) are running below the five-year average for 2001-2005, while prices in all other regions are above-average, by more than 28 percent in the case of Kolda. Prices on rural markets are showing the same downward trend as on urban markets (Figure 2). Bignona was the only market posting a hike in prices (+5 percent). Both producer and retail prices on the Passy and Porokhane markets in crop-growing areas are down from the month of October. The retail price of millet is down by over 13 percent in Bambey, 7 percent in Gouille Mbeuth, Passy and Porokhane, 6 percent in Ourossogui and 4 percent in Mpal. November prices are up from the same time last year in Passy (+12 percent), Mpal (+10 percent), Gouille Mbeuth (+9 percent) and Porokhane (+7 percent). Prices on other rural markets (Bambey, Ourossogui and Bignona) are somewhat lower. A comparison with the average for 2001-05 shows the same trends as the comparison with November of last year. This year’s average harvests should mean a satisfactory food outlook, with some localized pressure. The success of efforts to offset local production deficits is largely dependent on grain imports from neighboring countries and the international market. 3.