World War III Isn't What the Strategists Thought It Would Be

TIEDEMANN INSIGHTS World War III Isn't What the Strategists Thought It Would Be By Robert Hormats | Managing Director, Tiedemann Advisors Article originally pubished in The Hill on April 14, 2020 During the middle of catastrophe of this nature, issuing thoughtful the last century, U.S. reports on the risk of a pandemic. The trouble is strategists developed that much of the world was defining “security” military plans for as protecting ourselves from a military threat — fighting what was often not a dire, dangerous health threat. Most of these characterized as the Third World War — a major warnings went ignored or were downplayed as confrontation that would engulf large numbers “science fiction” or “highly implausible.” Trapped of nations in a cataclysmic, and perhaps nuclear, in a mindset of the past, future security threats of confrontation. It always was groups of countries — this sort were given little attention. the U.S. and its key allies — versus other groups of countries, perhaps led by the Soviet Union. We are now paying the price. And we need to rethink what “security” in the 21st century actually The world is now engaged in what legitimately entails. Preoccupied as we were with cross-border can be labeled the Third World War — dramatically military challenges, we failed to address common different from any war imagined decades ago, global non-military ones. International institutions but massively lethal and destructive, nonetheless. failed to focus sufficiently on common human This is not a confrontation of countries with threats as well as military ones. nuclear and other advanced weapons, but it does involve massive numbers of countries throughout The immediate issue, of course, is to stop and the world in a very different way. They are not reverse the spread of today’s coronavirus and to fighting one another but, instead, this Third World save as many lives as possible. Scientists around War is against a small, unseen virus that threatens the world are collaborating to do this, sharing all nations — regardless of the nature of their information and trying to identify current drugs governments or their political philosophies — and that might achieve some success in killing or millions of their people. curbing the virus, while searching for new ones and for new immunization medicines. The process This is not how military planners had envisaged has been in high gear since January. World War III, but that is how it is working out. The other encouraging facet to this effort is that There were numerous, highly respected scientists the medical and scientific communities — which, and medical experts who wrote about a looming for some time, have been given insufficient weight in the policy process in many countries and relatively The long-term answers to much of what threatens little visibility, while in several instances facing large humanity in the future, and the means to develop budget cuts — are now playing a leading role both in policies and measures that will make human life better, the fight against the disease and in shaping the kinds depend on a far greater degree of global cooperation: of policies that governments need to pursue to curb (i) sharing information on threats and possible solutions and eliminate the virus. Many in this community are across borders as early as possible; (ii) engaging in full working across borders far more effectively than their transparency; (iii) strengthening institutions that can governments. work more closely with governments to establish rules and norms in advance for averting and responding to After World War II, scientists were seen as national heroes similar global crises. in developing the technologies needed to protect our country in the event of a new war. They are heroes again And let’s not allow this crisis to revert afterwards to a in a very different area of expertise — along with the prolonged debate over whether strong authoritarian frontline doctors, nurses and caregivers who are tirelessly governments or liberal democratic governments did (and often at risk to their own lives) working to confront better in addressing this pandemic. The focus should the virus. Recently, while walking on one of the nearly be on what techniques were used and which worked deserted streets of New York City at precisely 7 p.m., my best. One interesting facet of the response is that several wife and I were deeply moved as hundreds of people East Asian countries that had gone through the SARS opened their windows and banged on drums, pans and crisis of 2002-2003 responded to this one very quickly other objects, cheering for these brave, skilled men and and effectively; they had learned a lot of lessons that women — not a ticker-tape parade, as occurred after they put into effect almost immediately after this virus WWII, but an honest, exuberant demonstration of deep began to spread. A lot of lives would have been saved, respect and thanks that now happens every evening at and a lot of economic pain averted, if other countries that time in this city. could have worked more closely with these countries, and studied and learned from their experience during The indispensable role of scientists and medical that period. Again, cross-border sharing of information professionals in this fight should underscore their central and experience could have been enormously beneficial. role in addressing other 21st century threats as well, especially those that are medical and environmental So, now, we still have an urgent crisis to address. That in nature. And it is not only their role within their must be the top priority for all governments, guided individual nations, as essential as that is. While by the essential role of scientists and doctors here governments restrict the movement of people across and around the world — and wisely informed by the their borders now — an understandable precaution, to experience of countries that have been most successful control the spread of the virus in some circumstances — in dealing with this virus. Yet, as things improve, we scientists are sending information, research findings, data will need to think long and hard about what else and suggestions across borders on a regular basis, hoping we have learned from this crisis, and then develop a that these exchanges can hasten the quest for cures or new architecture for international cooperation and immunization therapies, and helping one another to collaboration. Science, cross-border interaction to better understand the “common enemy.” identify common threats, and a long-term vision of what all countries need to do to prevent and protect After the rush to impose barriers at borders is over humanity from future catastrophes of this sort, constitute and the crisis recedes, the emphasis needs to be more our most desperate security needs. on what the scientists now understand so well. Their efforts to succeed, and humanity as a whole, will be best The post-World War II era saw a rebuilding of the served by close international collaboration to address global order. This war must trigger a major effort to these sorts of profound global challenges. do likewise. Tiedemann Advisors, LLC (Tiedemann) is an investment adviser. Investors should consult with their financial, tax and legal advisors before investing in any investments or trust arrangements. The information is not intended to be, nor should it be construed or used as, investment, tax, accounting, legal or financial advice. This information is intended for illustration and discussion purposes only. Economic and market forecasts presented herein reflect our judgment as of the date of this presentation and are subject to change without notice. © 2020.04 Tiedemann Advisors. tiedemannadvisors.com .

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