PROSPECTS FOR COLLABORATIVE POWER IN A BRUTAL UNIVERSE A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE DIVISION OF THE UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI‘I AT MĀNOA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN POLITICAL SCIENCE MAY 2012 By Martin A. Schwab Dissertation Committee: Richard W. Chadwick, Chairperson Manfred Henningsen Michael J. Shapiro Kate Zhou Reg Kwok Keywords: International relations, foreign policy, decision-making, leadership, security, space © Martin A. Schwab, 2012 ii Abstract This dissertation shows a way to instill in institutions the cognitive habits necessary to prevent human extinction from forces within, on and outside Earth. In particular, these forces include uncharted asteroids and comets on Earth-crossing orbits, rapid pandemics of disease and super volcanoes. Prospects for collaborative power among nations, corporations, academe and indigenous peoples are presented through traditional political science literature and popular media. Instead of advocating for greater international bureaucracy to meet global threats, a decision-making pedagogy, 3x3 Global Drills is designed to redirect the foci of existing power structures into a wider framework to better integrate, evaluate and improve the diversity of current human perception. This nine-nexus global drills process fuses three broad disciplinary perspectives, 1) Cosmic 2) Individual and Societal and 3) Environmental, with three broad regional perspectives, 1) Americas 2) Africa-Europe and 3) Asia-Pacific. The pedagogy is intended to foster social justice, social promotion and social cohesion among individuals worldwide through increased human and robotic presence on the moon, Mars and new space stations as well as sustained launches of space satellites and space probes. Through these means, the human race can better observe geophysical dynamics from low-Earth orbit, do medical research in zero gravity and prepare asteroid and comet defenses for Earth across the solar system. By mobilizing the global war economy against global threats within, on and beyond Earth, the human race can begin to increase its resiliency in a brutal universe. iii Table of Contents Abstract …….......………………….……………………………………………………iii List of Figures ………....…………………………………………………...........……...vii Introduction Redirecting Global Power to Avert Human Extinction ………………………………………………………………………………………...….1 Chapter 1 A Chronology of Misused Power in a Brutal Universe 1908-1952: Tunguska, two world wars, space weapons and Mars ................………….11 1953-1972: Ike, JFK, Apollo and the opportunity costs of Vietnam ...............................15 1973-1980: Apollo-Soyuz Test Project and détente ........................................................19 1981-2000: Space station diplomacy and humans to Mars again delayed ......................20 1994: Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 pelts Jupiter ..........................................................24 2001: Gamma-ray bursts - the mother of all threats to the solar system .........................25 2003: U.S. reaction to historic first human spaceflight by China ....................................26 2001-2011: The counterproductive debate over space weapons .....................................28 2008-2011: Incremental-unilateral U.S. leadership of space endeavors .........................31 iv Chapter 2 Global Collaborative Power: Altering the Status Quo Why global leaders do not collaborate against multiple global threats ...........................33 Beyond competition and treaties of cooperation .............................................................36 Beyond institutions of coordination and consensus .........................................................38 Power is forever pursued and can never be balanced ......................................................40 Beyond the global chessboard: Celestial golf ..................................................................42 Mobilizing energy abundance and militaries against threats to the human race .............49 The imperative to launch a new paradigm of global collaborative power ......................57 Chapter 3 3x3 Global Drills: Prototyping Collaborative Power Beyond the Club of Rome: Uniting all powers on Earth for great efforts beyond ..........61 Implementing 3x3 Global Drills ......................................................................................70 1) Cosmic (mutual expansion) ..................................................................................74 2) Individual and Societal (purposes and cultures) ..................................................75 3) Environmental (human survival) ..........................................................................76 4) Americas + Hawaii ..............................................................................................77 5) Africa-Europe + Ankara and Moscow .................................................................77 6) Asia-Pacific + Israel/Arab Peninsula/Iran (Persia) ............................................77 Complementing Hughes' International Futures model ....................................................79 Applying Katzenstein’s world regions to prevent global empire ....................................85 Applying Thoreau, Parsons, Lasswell, Fuller, Marx-Hubbard and Pfaltzgraff ...............90 v 3x3 Global Drills as pedagogy in the interconnected world ............................................95 Sustaining the transition to a solar system civilization ............................................97 Instituting a galactic identity for the human race in the present ...........................101 Reflections on the intellectual genealogy of 3x3 Global Drills .....................................107 Chapter 4 Global Collaborative Power Illustrated through Literature and Film Enlisting the universal power of storytelling .................................................................111 A critique of entrenched power in Bacon's New Atlantis (1624) ..................................113 Speaking for the human race in Hoyle's The Black Cloud (1957) .................................116 Relevant works of the Grand Master, Robert A. Heinlein (published 1939-1987) .......117 Interstellar human-alien politics in Cherryh’s Hunter of Worlds (1977) ......................123 Collaboration in The Longest Day (1962) and Ike: Countdown to D-Day (2004) ........125 Healthy fear in Meteor (1979) .......................................................................................141 Attentive hope in Mission to Mars (2000) .....................................................................150 Another meme of caution from Lem's Solaris (1961) ...................................................156 Boats, beasts and boys in a brutal universe ...................................................................158 Girls and boys confront the brutality of adults and money ...........................................162 Summary ........................................................................................................................................167 vi Appendix A Room diagram to facilitate 3x3 Global Drills in a typical undergraduate course ........................................................................................................................................171 Appendix B Procedures to facilitate 3x3 Global Drills in a typical undergraduate course ........................................................................................................................................172 Bibliography ........................................................................................................................................175 List of Figures Figure 1. The torch from Marshall ..................................................................................18 Figure 2. Passing the torch (at Camp David) ...................................................................18 Figure 3. A generation tempered by war .........................................................................19 Figure 4. Jupiter under fire 22 years after Apollo 17 ......................................................19 Figure 5. Gamma-ray burst (GRB) illustration ................................................................25 Figure 6. All global chessboard pieces destroyed ...........................................................43 Figure 7. Guarding the global perimeter ..........................................................................43 Figure 8. A wider box of thought ..........................................................…………..........64 Figure 9. World Problematique Plus ...............................................................................67 Figure 10. 3x3 Global Drills ......................................................…..................................73 Figure 11. Three broad regions of Earth ..........................................................................78 vii Introduction Redirecting Global Power to Avert Human Extinction Never, ever trust to luck. Anonymous World War II navigator, Royal Air Force, October 1993 This dissertation contributes a new paradigm of political power based on the insight that the human race has always been significantly in danger of extinction. Earth is an unstable point in an expansive universe, vulnerable to brutal forces within, on and beyond the planet. This multitude of global threats includes but is not limited to super volcanoes, pandemics of disease and uncharted