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France, West Germany, and the Security of the Persian Gulf

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France, West Germany, and the Security of the Persian Gulf Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 1982 France, West Germany, and the security of the Persian Gulf Leonard, David L. Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/20182 LCV KMOX LIBRARY U rO«AOOATE . SCHOOL oOrtTtRCY,eJ?f CALIF. 93940 , NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL Monterey, California THESIS FRANCE WEST GERMANY, AND THE SECURIT Y OF THE PERSIAN GULF by David L. Leonard March 19 82 Thesis Advisor: David S. Yost Approved for public release; distribution unlimited T204242 UNCLASSIFIED SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE fWhon Om» Bniorod) READ INSTRUCTIONS REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE BEFORE COMPLETING FORM ! i«l)»0** xUMt(» 2. GOVT ACCESSION NO i recipient's catalog number 4. T\T\.E (and Suotltlo) S. TYPE OF REPORT ft PERlOO COVERED France, West Germany, and the Security Master's Thesis March of the Persian Gulf 1982 «. PERFORMING ORG. REPORT NUMBER 7. »uTHO«,-|| «. CONTRACT OR GRANT NoMSERr-j David L. Leonard » PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME ANO AOORESS 10. PROGRAM ELEMENT PROJECT TASK AREA * WORK UNIT NUMBERS Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, California 93940 1 I. CONTROLLING OFFICE NAME ANO AOORESS 12. REPORT OATE Naval Postgraduate School March 1982 IS. NUMBER OF PAGES Monterey, California 93940 214 14 MONITORING AGENCY NAME * AOORESSO' dtllotmnt from Controlling Olllco) IS. SECURITY CLASS, (ol Ihlo rdport) UNCLASSIFIED IS«. OECL ASSlFl CATION/ OORNGRAOlNG SCHEDULE I*. DISTRIBUTION STATEMCNT o( tttlt jtmport) Approved for public release; distribution unlimited. 17 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT (ol tho obotroct mntorod In Block 10, II dllloront from Report) I SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES IS KEY WOROS (Contlnuo on roworoo »ido II tmrr mnd identity my aloe* numoot) Persian Gulf, France, West Germany, Federal Republic of Germany, Persian Gulf energy. 20. ABSTRACT (Continue on tovoroo »ldm II nocmmmmrr ond Identity »r Mac* mmtmmr) The series of events which began with the Arab oil embargo in 1973 and recently culminated in the Iranian Revolution, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, and the Iran-Iraq Conflict have under- scored the vulnerability of Western oil supplies from the Persian Gulf region. This research analyzes the potential role of France and West Germany as U.S. allies in relation to the problem of ensuring the security of the Persian Gulf while maintaining the FORM 1473 EDITION OF I NOV • IS OBSOLETE DO , JAN 73 S/N 3 102*014- *«0 I UNCT.A.S.STFjed SECU ITY CLASSIFICATION OFTHIS PAOE (Whon Dot* Bntorod) UNCLASSIFIED («CuW" Ci.*HI»lC»tlQ>| QW Twit • >»»/<»«.» ,•>•«« «.>•«., credibility of deterrence in Europe. Included in this analysis are assessments of French and West German dependence on Persian Gulf oil supplies and an evaluation of each country's capability and intention to contribute to the security of the region. The conclusion reached is that neither country in the near-term has a viable alternative to political and military efforts in this area, but the policy of France conforms more to American policy than that of the traditionally staunch supporter of U.S. policies, West Germany. DD ForTfl 1473 UNCLASSIFIED , 1 Jan -j n i a /• c ft ^ Approved for public release; distribution unlimited France, West Germany, and the Security of the Persian Gulf oy David L. Leonard Lieutenant, United States Navy B.S., The Pennsylvania State University, 1974 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN NATIONAL SECURITY AFFAIRS from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL March 19 82 ABSTRACT The series of events which began with the Arab oil embargo in 1973 and recently culminated in the Iranian Revolution, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, and the Iran- Iraq Conflict have underscored the vulnerability of Western oil supplies from the Persian Gulf region. This research analyzes the potential role of France and West Germany as U.S. allies in relation to the problem of ensuring the security of the Persian Gulf while maintaining the credi- bility of deterrence in Europe. Included in this analysis are assessments of French and West German dependence on Persian Gulf oil supplies and an evaluation of each country's capability and intention to contribute to the security of the region. The conclusion reached is that neither country in the near-term has a viable alternative to political and military efforts to protect their energy security. Moreover, each country possesses unique capabilities to complement U.S. efforts in this area, but the policy of France conforms more to American policy than that of the traditionally staunch supporter of U.S. policies, West Germany. TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION- ----------------- 9 II. FRANCE, WEST GERMANY, AND THE ENERGY CRISIS - - 14 A. POLICY FROM WORLD WAR II TO 1973- ----- 15 B. THE 1973 ARAB OIL EMBARGO --------- 24 C. AFTER THE FIRST SHOCKWAVE, 1974-1978- - - - 34 1. Economic Strains- ----------- 34 2. Efforts to Deal with the Energy Crisis- 37 a. Demand-Side Measures- ------- 38 b. Supply-Side Measures- ------- 41 3. International Cooperation After 1973- - 50 4. Summary of French and German Progress from 1973-1979 53 D. THE SECOND SHOCKWAVE, 1979-1980 ------ 55 1. The Tokyo Summit- ----------- 60 2. The Yamal Gas Deal- ---------- 54 E. SUMMARY AND PROSPECTS FOR THE FUTURE- - - - 6 6 III. FRANCE AND THE SECURITY OF THE PERSIAN GULF - - 71 A. FRENCH CAPABILITES IN EUROPE AND THE PERSIAN GULF- --------------- 73 1. Europe- ---------------- 74 2. The Persian Gulf Area --------- 81 a. Military Capabilities ------- 81 b. Politico Economic --------- 85 c. France In Africa- --------- 88 5 3. Constraints on French Capabilities- - - 90 4. French Naval Policy Outside of Europe - 93 3. FRENCH FOREIGN POLICY AND INTENTIONS- - - - 97 1. France's Independent Foreign Policy - - 98 2. France's Defense Policy -------- 102 a. Relating to Europe- -------- 103 b. Overseas Policy ---------- 107 c. France and the Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan- ---------- 109 d. The Policy of Francois Mitterrand's Government- ------------ 112 C. SUMMARY AND FUTURE PROSPECTS- ------- 117 IV. WEST GERMANY AND THE SECURITY OF THE PERSIAN GULF- --------------------- 122 A. WEST GERMAN CAPABILTIES IN EUROPE AND THE PERSIAN GULF- --------------- 124 1. West German Capabilties in the European Theater ---------------- 124 2. West German Capability in the Persian Gulf Area --------------- 136 a. West German Efforts in Turkey - - - 137 b. West German Efforts in Pakistan - - 143 c. Cooperation with Persian Gulf States- -------------- 144 d. West German Military Capabilities in the Persian Gulf Area- ----- 147 3. Constraints on West German Capabilities- ------------- 149 B. WEST GERMAN FOREIGN POLICY AND INTENTIONS - 154 1. West German Foreign Policy- ------ 155 2. Potential for Increased West German Contribution- ------------ 166 3. West Germany and the Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan ------- 176 C. SUMMARY AND FUTURE PROSPECTS- ------ 132 V. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF FRENCH AND WEST GERMAN POLICIES --------------- 186 VI. CONCLUSION- ----------------- 197 TABLES- ---------------------- 203 LIST OF REFERENCES- ---------------- 206 INITIAL DISTRIBUTION LIST ------------- 214 LIST OF TABLES 1. Primary Energy Consumption in Germany for 1973 and Estimates for 1985- ------------- 203 2. Primary Energy Consumption in France for 1973 and Estimates for 1985- ------------- 204 3. Comparison of French and West German Oil Imports, 1973/1979- -205 I. INTRODUCTION The series of events which began with the Arab oil embargo in 197 3 and recently culminated in the Iranian revolu- tion, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, and the Iran-Iraq conflict have underscored the vulnerability of Western oil supplies from the Persian Gulf Region. These events served notice that extra-European events could pose threats to Western security of equal or possibly greater significance than the Soviet threat in central Europe. When the 197 3 crisis occurred, the West European governments found that they were heavily dependent on Middle Eastern and Persian Gulf oil at a time when they had just completed a gradual but continuous withdrawal of military influence from these regions. The ensuing search for oil security by the Western industrial powers after 1973 consisted of a two-fold attempt to decrease dependence on Persian Gulf sources while increas- ing economic and military interdependence between themselves and the oil-producing states via increased industrial cooperation and arms transfer arrangements. The Iranian revolution highlighted the pitfalls of the latter strategy and its corollary, the belief that security and stability in the Persian Gulf area could be assured solely by the creation and maintenance of a regional Western-leaning military power such as Iran. The Iran-Iraq conflict (and the resulting loss of a large share of Middle East oil production) revealed that the major industrial countries had failed to significantly reduce their energy dependence on the major oil producers by 1980. Finally, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan solidified the notion that these previous strategies to ensure the flow of Western oil supplies could not, except in the long term, replace individual or multilateral Western efforts to become capable of direct political and/or military intervention to protect their interests in the Persian Gulf. Since the end of World War II, the security interests of the United States and those of Europe have been intimately related and have been institutionalized through the creation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) . This reality, plus
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