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Freight Transportation May 3, 2017 09:00 AM GMT MORGAN STANLEY & CO. LLC Freight Transportation Ravi Shanker EQUITY ANALYST [email protected] +1 212 761-6350 Truck Stop/TLFI: Diane Huang RESEARCH ASSOCIATE [email protected] +1 212 761-8290 Outperformance Streak Spencer Chernus RESEARCH ASSOCIATE [email protected] +1 212 296-5137 Continues Freight Transportation North America Our TLFI outperformed seasonality for the fourth consecutive IndustryView In-Line update, driven by both demand and supply outperformances. Please see all charts in This Week's Key Charts Our reefer and flatbed indices also outperformed seasonality, Previous Truck Stop Report: Truck Stop/TLSS: marking the second straight TLFI update with each of our Demand and Rate Sentiment Stay Strong vs. three indices outperforming seasonality. Seasonality (26 Apr 2017) Our TLFI trended flattish sequentially over the past two weeks and outperformed seasonality for the fourth consecutive update. The index is now above 2015 and 2013 levels at this time of the year. Both demand and supply remained strong, outperforming seasonality by ~920 and ~450 bps, respectively. Over the last two updates (i.e. the month of April), our index has increased ~11% compared to a seasonally implied decline of ~21%. April's improvement is consistent with TL mgmt. commentary from 1Q17 earnings, who broadly noted increasing momentum and growing confidence. We will pay close attention to our next few TLFI updates, which typically exhibit strength in May and June. The straight-line forecast has our index ending the year in the ballpark of historical average levels. Here are our main takeaways from this week's update: The demand component of our index increased sequentially, counter- directional, and outperformed seasonality for the fourth consecutive update. Demand outperformed seasonality by ~920 bps, the fourth straight outperformance by more than 550 bps and tied for demand's largest outperformance in magnitude in 2017. The supply component of our index increased sequentially, directionally consistent, and outperformed seasonality for the fourth consecutive update. Supply increased 140 bps over the past two weeks, outperforming seasonality by ~450 bps. All else equal, we would expect supply to continue to outperform seasonality as the year progresses, as any ELD impact is not captured by seasonality, thus serving as a catalyst for potential supply tightening. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with Other indices: Our reefer index trended flattish sequentially and companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a outperformed seasonality for the fourth consecutive update and our conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of flatbed index increased sequentially and outperformed seasonality for the Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making second consecutive update. Our flatbed index has increased sequentially in their investment decision. six consecutive updates, consistent with commentary from LSTR mgmt. For analyst certification and other important disclosures, who noted flatbed tightening throughout the first quarter. refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report. 1 Truckload Industry Report Summary Exhibit 1: Truckload Industry Report Summary Latest Release Data Date Truck Data Points YoY % Chg Seq % Chg 3/31/2017 4/5/2017 ACT Class 8 Prelim. Orders 42.3% -0.4% 3/31/2017 4/18/2017 ATA NSA Truck Tonnage 1.2% 14.6% 3/31/2017 4/19/2017 Cass Indices Freight Expenditures 3.0% -1.2% Freight Shipments 0.9% 0.5% Vs. 5/2/2017 5/2/2017 MS Truckload Freight Index Seq. Move Seasonality Dry Van Reefer Flatbed Current 3-Mo. Fwd 4/25/2017 4/25/2017 MS TL Sentiment Survey Seq. Move Seq. Move TL Demand TL Supply TL Rates Source: Morgan Stanley Research 2 This Week's Key Charts Exhibit 2: Morgan Stanley Dry Van ONLY Truckload Freight Index 2010 10 2011 9 2012 2006-2016 Average* 8 Through May 2 2013 2014 7 2015 2016 6 2017 5 Straight Line Analysis 4 3 2 1 0 l t t r r r v c y c y g g n p b n n u c c a a p a e e a a o e e a u u u J O O J A J M F M J - D S D N A M A M - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1 3 4 3 8 4 7 0 4 8 5 2 6 4 1 9 2 0 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 3 Source: The index measures the incremental demand for Dry-Van Truckload services compared to the incremental supply. When a given reading is above prior years’ level, it means there is more freight demand relative to available capacity. When a given reading is below prior years’ level, it means there is less freight demand relative to capacity. *2006-2016 average trend line excludes financial crisis years of 2008 and 2009; Source: Morgan Stanley Research Exhibit 3: 2017 Dry Van OVERALL INDEX Seq. % Change Less Exhibit 4: 2017 Dry Van DEMAND Seq. % Change Less Historical Historical Avg. Seq. % Chg. Average Seq. % Chg. 25% 2017 Dry Van TLFI Seq % Change - Hist. Avg. YTD Avg. 30% 2017 Dry Van TLFI Demand Seq % Change - Hist. Avg. YTD Avg. Outperform s % s 15% Outperform % . 20% e . q L . q e . e g S g 5% h S h d 10% . C n C g a v % -5% % . A . m . q e g 0% t q e h D s e i S -15% C n S . H a g n s -10% V v a -25% s A y V e r . L t y Underperform D . r s -20% i Underperform g 7 D -35% H h 1 7 0 C 1 2 0 -45% -30% 2 2 4 6 8 1012141618 2 4 6 8 1012141618 Week Week Source: Morgan Stanley Research Source: Morgan Stanley Research 3 Exhibit 5: Hist. Avg. Seq. % Dry Van SUPPLY Chg. Less 2017 Seq. % Exhibit 6: NA Class 8 Truck Orders Lag Our TLFI by 3 Months (R^2 Chg. ~0.40) 30% Hist. Avg. - 2017 Dry Van TLFI Supply Seq % Change YTD Avg. 60,000 NA Class 8 Net Orders (LHS) TLFI (RHS) 12 l a % t . Outperform n n 20% 50,000 10 q e a e m V S e r y c 7 r 10% 40,000 8 n 1 I D s 0 / r 2 e y % d l . d n s . p r g 30,000 6 0% a s q p O h e e m u t e C L S S e . D . N l g 20,000 4 g -10% a h t v n C A e . y t m l -20% 10,000 2 s e p i r c p H Underperform n u I S -30% 0 0 9 4 9 4 3 8 3 1 6 1 6 3 8 3 2 7 2 0 5 0 5 9 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 2 4 6 8 1012141618 - - - t t t t r r r c c c n n n n b b b g g g g c c c c p p p e e e e e e u u u u u u u u O O O O A A A J F J F J F J Week D D D A A A A Source: Morgan Stanley Research Source: ACT, Morgan Stanley Research Exhibit 7: Morgan Stanley Reefer Truckload Freight Index Exhibit 8: Morgan Stanley Flatbed Truckload Freight Index Source: Morgan Stanley Research; *2006-2016 average trend line excludes financial crisis years of 2008 and Source: Morgan Stanley Research; *2006-2016 average trend line excludes financial crisis years of 2008 and 2009 2009 4 ACT NA Total Class 8 Net Orders, Builds & Retail Sales Trends Exhibit 9: NA Total Cl. 8 Net Orders Long-Term Trends Source: ACT, Morgan Stanley Research Exhibit 10: LTM NA Total Cl. 8 Net Orders Exhibit 11: Prelim. Cl. 8 Net Orders vs. 12M Mov. Avg. Source: ACT, Morgan Stanley Research Source: ACT, Morgan Stanley Research Exhibit 12: NA Total Cl. 8 Builds Long-Term Trends Exhibit 13: NA Total Cl. 8 Retail Sales Long-Term Trends Source: ACT, Morgan Stanley Research Source: ACT, Morgan Stanley Research 5 ATA NSA Truck Tonnage Index Trends & Straight-Line Forecast Exhibit 14: Straight-Line Forecast for Monthly YoY % Change in NSA Truck Tonnage Index Source: ATA, Morgan Stanley Research; Note: We have adjusted February 2012 data due to the extra workday resulting from leap year Exhibit 15: Sequential Change in NSA Tonnage Index Exhibit 16: Straight-Line Forecast for LTM NSA Tonnage Index Source: ATA, Morgan Stanley Research; Note: Based on data from 1985 onwards; We have adjusted February Source: ATA, Morgan Stanley Research; Note: We have adjusted February data due to the extra workday data due to the extra workday resulting from leap year resulting from leap year Exhibit 17: NSA Tonnage Index Long-Term Trends Exhibit 18: Acceleration in LTM NSA Tonnage Index Source: ATA, Morgan Stanley Research; Note: We have adjusted February data due to the extra workday Source: ATA, Morgan Stanley Research; Note: +1/-1 St. Dev. lines based on data from 1985 onwards; We have resulting from leap year adjusted February data due to the extra workday resulting from leap year 6 Cass Shipment Index Trends & Straight-Line Forecast Exhibit 19: Straight-Line Forecast for Monthly YoY % Change in Cass Shipment Index 8% 90% Confidence Interval 6% Avg 3.5% 1.9% 4% 90% Confidence Interval 2.7% 1.9% 2% -0.5% 0.8% 0.1% 3.2% 0% -1.1% 1.3% -1.2% -1.5% 0.9% 1.3% -2% -2.6% -1.5% -5.0% -4% -5.8% -2.6% -3.1% -4.3% -3.2% -6% -5.2% -4.9% -8% -10% -12% Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Source: Cass Freight Index, Morgan Stanley Research Exhibit 20: Sequential Change in Cass Shipment Index Exhibit 21: Straight-Line Forecast for LTM Cass Shipment Index YoY % Change in Cass Shipment Index 4% (Rolling 12-Month Avg ) 3% 90% Confidence Interval 2% Avg 1% 90% Confidence Interval 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% Source: Cass Freight Index, Morgan Stanley Research Source: Cass Freight Index, Morgan Stanley Research Exhibit 22: Cass Shipment Index Long-Term Trends Exhibit 23: Acceleration in LTM Cass Shipment Index Source: Cass Freight Index, Morgan Stanley Research Source: Cass Freight Index, Morgan Stanley Research 7 Cass Expenditure Index Trends & Straight-Line Forecast Exhibit 24: Straight-Line Forecast for Monthly YoY % Change in Cass Expenditure Index Source: Cass Freight Index, Morgan Stanley Research Exhibit 25: Sequential Change in Cass Expenditure Index Exhibit 26: Straight-Line Forecast for LTM Cass Expenditure Index 10% 5% 0% -5% Current Average -10% +/- 1 Std.
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