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Beyond Rivalry and Camaraderie: Explaining Varying Asian Responses to China

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Beyond Rivalry and Camaraderie: Explaining Varying Asian Responses to China CHILDREN AND FAMILIES The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and EDUCATION AND THE ARTS decisionmaking through research and analysis. ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE This electronic document was made available from www.rand.org as a public service INFRASTRUCTURE AND of the RAND Corporation. TRANSPORTATION INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LAW AND BUSINESS Skip all front matter: Jump to Page 16 NATIONAL SECURITY POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY Support RAND SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Browse Reports & Bookstore TERRORISM AND Make a charitable contribution HOMELAND SECURITY For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore the Pardee RAND Graduate School View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non- commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the Pardee RAND Graduate School (PRGS) dissertation series. PRGS dissertations are produced by graduate fellows of the Pardee RAND Graduate School, the world’s leading producer of Ph.D.’s in policy analysis. The dissertation has been supervised, reviewed, and approved by the graduate fellow’s faculty committee. Beyond Rivalry and Camaraderie Explaining Varying Asian Responses to China John F. Fei This document was submitted as a dissertation in February 2011 in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the doctoral degree in public policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. The faculty committee that supervised and approved the dissertation consisted of Andrew Hoehn (Chair), Eric Heginbotham, and Dalia Dassa Kaye. PARDEE RAND GRADUATE SCHOOL The Pardee RAND Graduate School dissertation series reproduces dissertations that have been approved by the student’s dissertation committee. The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2011 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract………………………………………………………………………………………...…iii Acknowledgments……………………………………………………………………………..…iv Chapter 1: Introduction, Theory, Literature Review and Research Design…………………...1 Chapter 2: Japan’s Response to China…………………………………………………..……51 Chapter 3: Korea’s Response to China………………………………………………………132 Chapter 4: Thailand’s Response to China………………………………………………...…197 Chapter 5: Conclusions…………………………………………………………………..……253 Appendix………………………………………………………………………………...…….277 Bibliography……………………………………………………………………………..…….285 iii ABSTRACT Asian states often make tradeoffs between economic and military security goals, and shifts in states’ preferences for economic advantage versus military strength explain variation and diversity in their responses to China. Countries that prioritize technological advantage and economic strength respond differently to China than those that do not because they accept a greater degree of security risk to realize economic gains from interactions with China. This dissertation assesses the security and economic policy responses of a representative sample of Asian states to China between 1992 and 2008. The responses of Japan, Korea and Thailand have defied predictions of the dominant international relations paradigm—realism—that states would either balance against or bandwagon with a rising China. However, the three states have not discarded consideration of external security threats. Differences in how Japan, Korea and Thailand have responded to China over time are explained not only by changes in China’s military threat, but perceptions of the threat as weighed against changing economic priorities. Domestic strategic evolution—change in political structure and grand strategy—has had an important impact on the manner in which the three nations have responded to China. The findings of this dissertation bear on both the study and practice of international security policy. Domestic politics and state preferences are important factors to consider when explaining the responses of Asian states to China, responses which would not have been implied by the consideration of external threats alone. Understanding the determinants of Asian nations’ different and evolving preferences for the ratio of economic versus military strength will aid U.S. officials in formulating policies that affirm these states’ strategic interests. iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This dissertation would not have seen completion without the unwavering support of my committee. Andy Hoehn, my chair, enthusiastically supported this project from the beginning, never giving up when it seemed that the research had reached a dead-end. Thank you for ensuring that I kept my research focused on the most important policy issues, and for always willing to lend a hand. Eric Heginbotham encouraged me to pursue the topic when the ideas that motivated this work were in its incipience. From day-one, he worked to help me refine my hypotheses, asking the right questions as I sought to link seemingly unrelated variables, and providing the most salient insights. Dalia Dassa Kaye helped me to structure and frame the research in the broader context of cutting-edge international relations scholarship and policy analysis, and pushed me to improve my analysis by never hesitating to pose challenging questions. To all three of my advisors, thank you for patiently working with me across different time-zones, ensuring that my analysis accorded all evidence and arguments equal consideration. The Pardee RAND Graduate School (PRGS) and RAND community provided overwhelming support and guidance throughout the process. I thank Dean Susan Marquis for imparting wisdom and momentum as I struggled to reach the finish line. I am particularly indebted to Associate Dean Rachel Swanger for her encouragement, insights, and assistance during the most challenging phases of research, and for serving as a mentor during my entire time at PRGS. I also thank Jennifer Prim, Mary Parker, Maggie Clay, and Kristina Wallace (all of PRGS), and the RAND library staff. I benefitted from interactions and discussions with many individuals at RAND, but several deserve special thanks: Bruce Bennett, Roger Cliff, Chaibong Hahm, Scott Harold, Ki Tae Park, Jed Peters, and Howard Shatz. This dissertation has also benefitted from discussions and communications with others at RAND, and in the broader academic community: Thak Chaloemtiarana, Leif Eric Easley, Mike Green, Eric Lorber, Larry Rubin, and Scott Snyder. My external reviewer, Professor David Kang, deserves special thanks for enthusiastic support and intellectual guidance. This research was generously supported by RAND research units: Project AIR FORCE, Arroyo Center, National Security Research Division, and the Center for Asia Pacific Policy. I thank Susan Everingham, Andy Hoehn, Jeff Isaacson, Mike Lostumbo, Tom McNaugher, Bill Overholt, John Parachini, and Lauri Rohn for helping me to secure funding that enabled me to finish. I am also grateful for the financial support of Eugene and Maxine Rosenfeld, and the Ford Foundation. As important as intellectual guidance has been the overwhelming and unwavering support of friends and colleagues over the years. I would like to thank those that have been part of my PRGS dissertation progress group: Stephanie Chan, Matt Hoover, and Meryl Schwarz. Many others in the RAND community deserve thanks: Sandy Berry, Abby Brown, Liz Brown, Jack Clift, Eileen Hlavka, Ying Liu, Elvira Loredo, Dave Loughran, Shannon Maloney, Artur Usanov, Christine Vaughan and Eric Warner. I am particularly grateful to Jackson Pai, Rico Rivera, Mark Wang, Brian and Tina Weatherford, and especially to Sarah Gaillot. Finally, I thank my parents, Anita and Chen Chun Fei. This accomplishment would not have been achieved without their unconditional support during my many years of graduate education. It is to them that I dedicate this dissertation. v vi CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION, THEORY, LITERATURE REVIEW AND RESEARCH DESIGN THE PUZZLE The rise of China is one of the most consequential events in modern history. Since the end of the Cold War, some communities across the Asia Pacific region have expressed caution over China’s territorial ambitions and military buildup. The United States has certainly viewed China’s military modernization with suspicion, while other nations have expressed varying degrees of concern over different periods of time.1 Yet states
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