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Changes in Soybean Yields in the Midwestern United States As a Result of Future Changes in Climate, Climate Variability, and Co2 Fertilization

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Changes in Soybean Yields in the Midwestern United States As a Result of Future Changes in Climate, Climate Variability, and Co2 Fertilization CHANGES IN SOYBEAN YIELDS IN THE MIDWESTERN UNITED STATES AS A RESULT OF FUTURE CHANGES IN CLIMATE, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, AND CO2 FERTILIZATION JANE SOUTHWORTH 1,R.A.PFEIFER2, M. HABECK 3, J. C. RANDOLPH 1, O. C. DOERING 3, J. J. JOHNSTON 1 and D. G. RAO 4 1School of Public and Environmental Affairs, 1315 E. Tenth Street, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN 47405-1701, U.S.A. E-mail: [email protected] 2Agronomic consultant, New Palestine, IN, U.S.A. 3Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, U.S.A. 4Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture, Hyderabad, India Abstract. This modeling study addresses the potential impacts of climate change and changing climate variability due to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration on soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merrill) yields in the Midwestern Great Lakes Region. Nine representative farm locations and six future climate scenarios were analyzed using the crop growth model SOYGRO. Under the future climate scenarios earlier planting dates produced soybean yield increases of up to 120% above current levels in the central and northern areas of the study region. In the southern areas, comparatively small increases (0.1 to 20%) and small decreases (–0.1 to –25%) in yield are found. The decreases in yield occurred under the Hadley Center greenhouse gas run (HadCM2-GHG), representing a greater warm- ing, and the doubled climate variability scenario - a more extreme and variable climate. Optimum planting dates become later in the southern regions. CO2 fertilization effects (555 ppmv) are found to be significant for soybean, increasing yields around 20% under future climate scenarios. For the study region as a whole the climate changes modeled in this research would have an overall beneficial effect, with mean soybean yield increases of 40% over current levels. 1. Introduction In recent years concerted international efforts have been undertaken to address the problem of global climate change (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (1995, 1990) although debate continues as to its causes and potential im- pacts. Consensus has been reached however, recognizing the serious implications of such potential changes in climate to many sectors. Any change in climate will have implications for climate-sensitive systems such as agriculture, forestry, and natural resources. The combined effect of elevated temperatures, increased at- mospheric CO2 concentrations, increased probability of extreme events (droughts, floods), and reduced crop-water availability, is expected to have significant impacts on the agricultural sector (Chiotti and Johnston, 1995). With respect to agriculture, changes in solar radiation, temperature, and precipi- tation will produce changes in crop yields, crop mix, cropping systems, scheduling Climatic Change 53: 447–475, 2002. © 2002 Kluwer Academic Publishers. Printed in the Netherlands. 448 JANE SOUTHWORTH ET AL. of field operations, pest conditions, and grain moisture content at harvest. Climate change also will have effects on the economics of agriculture, including changes in crop production practices, farm profitability, trade, and regional or national comparative advantage. The impacts of climate change will depend on both the magnitude of the change in climate and how well agriculture can adapt to these changes (Kaiser et al., 1995). Our research addresses such issues for nine agri- cultural farm locations across the Midwestern Great Lakes region (Figure 1), a five-state area including Indiana, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin. This region is one of the most productive and important agricultural regions in the world, with over 50% of the land-use devoted to agriculture (National Agricultural Statistics Service, 1997). While most studies of climate change impacts on agriculture have analyzed ef- fects of mean changes of climatic variables on crop production, impacts of changes in climate variability have been studied much less (Mearns et al., 1997; Mearns, 1995). Yet the consequences of changes in climate variability may be as important as those that arise due to changes in mean climatic variables (Hulme et al., 1999; Carnell and Senior, 1998; Semenov and Barrow, 1997; Liang et al., 1995; Rind, 1991; Mearns et al., 1984). Climate variability, and its potential changes under fu- ture climates, is therefore essential to evaluate, specifically for its possible impacts on agriculture (Semenov and Barrow, 1997; Barrow et al., 1996; Semenov et al., 1996; Rind, 1991). Properly validated crop simulation models can be used to model multiple effects and see their interaction in terms of the environmental effects on crop physiological processes and to evaluate the consequences of such influences (Peiris et al., 1996). The major production region for soybeans lies between 25◦ and 45◦ latitude at altitudes of less than 1000 m where temperature ranges are generally favorable to soybean production. Currently, the United States produces over 50% of the world’s soybeans (Wittwer, 1995), making it one of the nation’s most important crops. Any change in soybean yield brought about by climate change could have major economic consequences in many regions of the United States (Jones et al., 1999). Research by Ferris et al. (1998) suggests that the impact of climatic extremes on determinate crops depends on the stage of crop development. In soybeans, pod development and seed filling are the most sensitive phases of crop development. High temperatures at the time of flowering or early seed filling, and water deficit during the reproductive stage, reduces photosynthesis and seed yield of soybean (Ferris et al., 1998). Modeling studies have found specific relationships between temperatures and crop growth or development. Hoogenboom et al. (1995) found the number of days from planting to flowering or physiological maturity was shortest at temperatures between 25◦ and 30 ◦C. This number of days will increase at higher temperatures, due to the decrease in reproductive development rate. In addition, total biomass growth shows a strong cultivar based response to temperature. Jones et al. (1999) reported optimum temperatures for soybean seed yield with decreases at higher CHANGES IN SOYBEAN YIELDS IN THE MIDWESTERN UNITED STATES 449 Figure 1. Location of nine representative agricultural areas in the Midwestern Great Lakes Region. temperatures. Higher temperatures were found to have direct physiological effects as well as indirect effects through increased evapotranspiration and hence, water stress. Lal et al. (1999) concluded that both maximum and minimum temperatures are important to soybean production. Moisture stress will also impact soybean yields. Varietal differences to moisture stress can be dramatic, and short season cultivars tend to be most affected during an extended period of drought stress during the warmer part of the growing season (Specht et al., 1986). In addition, the stage of growth of the plant during which moisture stress occurs directly influences the impact upon the plant (Shaw and Laing, 1966). Specifically, stress in early growth stages reduces the number of pods 450 JANE SOUTHWORTH ET AL. produced by the plant, while moisture stress in later periods of growth reduces the number of seeds per pod and bean size, moisture stress at either time eventually contributed to lower yields. Significantly different temperature or precipitation regimes in these regions could have dramatic effects on soybean production, even given the soybean plant’s great ability to recover from these stresses. Another important factor for crop production under a changed climate is the fer- tilizing effect of increased atmospheric concentrations of CO2. This was reported over 100 years ago and may have been observed much earlier. Numerous studies have been conducted throughout western and northern Europe and all reported sig- nificant increases in plant growth and productivity (Wittwer, 1995). However, plant species differ in their response to CO2 fertilization. C3 species, such as soybeans and wheat, benefit from increased atmospheric concentrations of CO2. The primary reason is that the increased atmospheric CO2 will reduce photorespiratory loss of carbon in the C3 plant, enhancing plant growth and productivity (Allen et al., 1987). Wittwer (1995) reported that 93% of over 1000 studies of CO2 fertilization effects found an increase in plant productivity, with a mean increase in yield of 52%. Recent studies of climate change impacts on soybean yields in the U.S. corn belt also reported increases as a result of CO2 fertilization (Kaiser et al., 1995; Phillips et al., 1996; Ritchie, 1989). Yield increases ranged from 15 to 83%. Ritchie (1989) reported yield decreases when the fertilization effect of CO2 was not taken into account. Jones et al. (1999) reported a north-south trend in simulated soybean yields under future climate scenarios. Increase in temperatures of up to 2 ◦C had little effect on yields at most northern locations, and decreased yields by 16% in southern locations. When the CO2 fertilization effect was added, all yields increased unless precipitation decreased. Across all locations average increases in yield ranged from about 1% in Mississippi to 35% in Michigan. In addition, Jones et al. (1999) found that the best planting date under future climates was about 17 days later than present. The change in planting date apparently resulted in cooler conditions during the reproductive period of growth under the warmer environment and pro- vided more favorable water
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