A Professional Journal of National Defence College

Volume 19 Number 1 June 2020

National Defence College Bangladesh EDITORIAL BOARD

Chief Patron Lieutenant General Sheikh Mamun Khaled, SUP, rcds, psc, PhD Editor-in-Chief Rear Admiral M Shafiul Azam, NUP, ndc, psc Editor Colonel M A Saadi, afwc, psc Associate Editors Brigadier General Muhammad Ali Talukder, ndc, afwc, psc Lieutenant Colonel Muhammad Alamgir Iqbal Khan, psc, Arty Assistant Editors Assistant Professor Nishat Sultana Assistant Director Md Nazrul Islam

ISSN: 1683-8475

DISCLAIMER

The analysis, opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this Journal are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the NDC, Bangladesh Armed Forces or any other agencies of Bangladesh Government. Statement, fact or opinion appearing in NDC Journal are solely those of the authors and do not imply endorsement by the editors or publisher.

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in retrieval system, or transmitted in any form, or by any means, electrical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher.

Published by the National Defence College, Bangladesh Design & Printed by : Isamoti Printers 89/3, Nayapaltan, Dhaka-1000, Bangladesh Cell: 01947540934, E mail: [email protected] CONTENTS Page Foreword v Editorial vi Abstracts vii

Trans-boundary Water Sharing: A Comparative Analysis of Ganges Water Sharing Treaty 1996 and Few other Related International Treaties and Conventions for Identifying Challenges and Way Forward for Bangladesh 01 By-Brigadier General Md Ahsanul Kabir, ndc, afwc, psc

Efficacy of Capitalism in the 21st Century Towards Pursuit of Happiness and Prosperity: Takeaways for Bangladesh from Malaysia and China 26 By-Brigadier General Abdullah Al Mamun, SPP, ndc, psc, G

Online Radicalisation among the Youths in Bangladesh: Effects on National Security and Way Forward 51 By-Brigadier General Md Masudur Rahman, ndc, psc

Internet of Things for Bangladesh: Prospects and Challenges 82 By-Brigadier General Md Nasim Parvez, ndc, afwc, psc

Maritime Security of the Bay of Bengal: Joint Imperatives of Armed Forces and Ministry of Foreign Affairs 118 By-Commodore Mir Ershad Ali, (G), NPP, ndc, psc, BN

Speech of 7th March: Political Direction Towards Inspiring the Nation for Freedom 146 By- Joint Secretary Khan Md. Nurul Amin, ndc An Audit of the Jigsaw – India’s ‘Act East’ and the United States of America’s ‘Indo-Pacific’ 170 By- Commodore Rajiv Ashok, ndc

Cyber Threats and National Security in Nigeria: Strategies to Mitigate the Challenges 192 By- Group Captain Nosiru Babatunde Folaji, MSS, ndc, psc(+)

Psychological Contract: Towards Enhanced Interpersonal Relationship between Officers and Men of Bangladesh Army 215 By- Colonel Md Syeedur Rahman, afwc, psc

Understanding and Shaping-up Soldiers’ Psyche: A Vital Need for Enhancing Fighting Power 239 By- Lieutenant Colonel Kazi Nadir Hossain, afwc, psc, G+, Artillery

Integration of Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Operations in Bangladesh Airspace besides Manned Aircraft: Challenges Ahead and Suggested Solutions 263 By- Group Captain Md Rafiul Huq, BPP, afwc, psc

Full Range Leadership for Enhanced Operational Proficiency of the Units of Bangladesh Army 288 By-Colonel M A Saadi, afwc, psc FOREWORD

National Defence College has been striving since 1999 with a vision to be the premier national centre of excellence on leadership, defence, security, strategy and development studies - meeting the challenges of the 21st century. Since its inception, the college has been relentlessly presenting time - befitting academic curricula to the potential policy planners, senior leaders and strategic thinkers of the future. The college aims to create a balanced outlook and bring a visualization amongst the Course Members with a strategic and operational level understanding. The chronicles of past 21 years testify the viability of the academic system that has contributed to this leading institution in gaining reputation of excellence at home and abroad. National Defence College being the highest level national institution in Bangladesh, has always been emphasizing on conducting research on contemporary issues of national importance. The common aim of research work is to enable Course Members to make original contribution to a subject of national or international interest, which has influence on national security and development. NDC journal reflects the notable research works carried out by Course Members and Faculty of the college. I am assertive that the Research Papers included in this journal encompassing varied subjects would be considerably useful for the readers. I congratulate all authors who contributed to this journal. I appreciate the sincere efforts of Research and Academic Wing and acknowledge the hard work of editorial board to publish this journal in due time.

Sheikh Mamun Khaled, SUP, rcds, psc, PhD Lieutenant General Commandant

V EDITORIAL National Defence College, Bangladesh is the premier national center of excellence on leadership, Security, Strategy and Development Studies. The College believes that a senior officer from military and civil services should have a good understanding of the major economic, political and social issues of the nation and be able to recommend measures to face the challenges. Hence NDC regularly conducts various research works on contemporary issues of national as well as international importance. NDC Journal is a bi-annual publication of National Defence College publishing selected research papers prepared by the course members. The articles for the journal (Volume 19, Number 1, June 2020) are mostly selected from individual research papers that the Course Members had submitted as part of the course curriculums. National Defence College has been very regular in bringing out ‘NDC Journal’ every year on time. This speaks of the laborious effort and genuine commitment on the part of both the editorial staffs and the writers. A total 12 (twelve) Individual Research Paper have been adjudged for publication in the current issue in abridged form. The articles reflect complex and intricate multidimensional issues emanating from the long diversified experience of the Course Members and the curriculum based deliberations and discourse on various topics concerning comprehensive national security during the trainings. This volume includes papers of different categories that will be able to draw the attention of varied groups of reader. We would like to express our sincere gratitude to the Chief Patron Lieutenant General Sheikh Mamun Khaled, SUP, rcds, psc, PhD, the Commandant of NDC for his valuable guidance. Research is a highly committed undertaking. Despite all efforts, unintentional errors in various forms may appear in the journal. We ardently request our valued readers to pardon us for such unnoticed slights and shall consider ourselves rewarded to receive any evocative criticism. We hope that all papers included in this volume will be able to satisfy our readers.

M Shafiul Azam, NUP, ndc, psc Rear Admiral Senior Directing Staff (Navy)

VI ABSTRACT

TRANS-BOUNDARY WATER SHARING: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF GANGES WATER SHARING TREATY 1996 AND FEW OTHER RELATED INTERNATIONAL TREATIES AND CONVENTIONS FOR IDENTIFYING CHALLENGES AND WAY FORWARD FOR BANGLADESH

Brigadier General Md Ahsanul Kabir, ndc, afwc, psc Bangladesh and India share 54 trans-boundary rivers, but at present treaty on only one river exits, Ganges Water Sharing Treaty 1996 with validity for 30 years. The treaty has been critically examined by comparing it with three prominent existing international water sharing treaties, and also further compared with another two international watercourses conventions. The comparisons reveal that in contrast to other treaties and conventions, Ganges Treaty 1996 did not take ‘whole basin approach’. None of these three treaties are time bounded, rather all are permanent in nature. It may be further observed that Ganges Treaty 1996 is basically a volumetric division of water at a fixed point of Farakka located in India for limited period of time - only in dry season, and also does not consider other forms of water uses and benefits. Having no provision on arbitration mechanism automatically turns the treaty as weakly bonded one. The usual negotiation process between two countries over water sharing may be attributed to certain weaknesses: over dependency on ‘bilateral negotiation’ coupled with attitude of ‘political altruism’ instead of ‘political utilitarianism’, looking upon the downstream country as ‘beneficiary’ instead of ‘shared partner’, relying more on ‘distributive’ instead of ‘integrative’ approach of negotiation etc. The study recommends few structural and non-structural measures, by adopting which Bangladesh may make optimum utilization of her available annual water quantity, emphasizes on commencing the already conceived Ganges Barrage Project, as early as feasible. Bangladesh may intensify her proactive, skillful, and effective water negotiation with all co-riparian countries for arriving basin wide solutions for entire GBM River System region following globally accepted concept of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) for an equitable and just utilization of available vast water resources.

Keywords: Treaties, Conventions, Water Negotiation, Structural Measures, Non- structural Measures, Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM).

VII EFFICACY OF CAPITALISM IN THE 21ST CENTURY TOWARDS PURSUIT OF HAPPINESS AND PROSPERITY: TAKEAWAYS FOR BANGLADESH FROM MALAYSIA AND CHINA

Brigadier General Abdullah Al Mamun, SPP, ndc, psc, G A journey of Capitalism for more than two centuries has released both positive and negative out comes. Capitalism allowed innovation, expansion of markets and enormous use of technology. Among the negative issues, due to capitalism people had been running for money so much that in most cases they turned into inhuman and super human. The concept “Money makes Money” and/or “Money without Money” have become so popular to the money mongers that they have reached now to the point of no return. Because they are making nexus and in most cases; through money they ensure their existence. In its progression a new class namely Transnational Capitalist Class (TCC) has emerged worldwide to control the world economy. Again, so much money at individual to global level does not necessarily bring prosperity and happiness in real sense as study finds. In this backdrop a qualitative research has been under taken to determine the efficacy of Capitalism in the 21st Century and measure the level of prosperity and happiness. Related literature also had been consulted to outline positive and negative impacts of Capitalism both world-wide and in Bangladesh. Malaysia, a Muslim country with similar political structure has been compared with Bangladesh model. Similar issues also been consulted from a non-capitalist and one party nation-China. Finally, the paper has also outlined the takeaways for Bangladesh. The research recommends that change in education system may enhance sustainable prosperity and happiness. Introduction of a new ministry namely “Ministry of Happiness” and further research on the subject may work well and the paper concludes with such tone.

Keywords: Capitalism, Transnational Capitalist Class (TCC), Sustainable Prosperity and Happiness.

ONLINE RADICALISATION AMONG THE YOUTHS IN BANGLADESH: EFFECTS ON NATIONAL SECURITY AND WAY FORWARD

Brigadier General Md Masudur Rahman, ndc, psc Secularism is one of the fundamentals of social system of the state. Although Bangladesh intrinsically values the fundamental democratic ideals of freedom,

VIII impartiality, equality, religious tolerance and justice, yet its society has been partially affected by the menace of radicalisation. The neoliberal globalisation process accelerated the pace of Information and Communication Technology (ICT), and the Online Radicalisation (OR) is the by-product of ICT. The OR, especially Online Radicalisation of Youth (ORY), has gained ground in Bangladesh and the radicalisation has taken place in phases, mostly due to transnational linkage and societal inability to insulate its citizens, particularly the youth segment. In this phenomenon, the online communication and ease of access to internet act as the strongest catalysts for the spread of OR where the youths of Bangladesh have been affected most. The fallouts of ORY affect the security, development and economic wellbeing of the relatively younger democratic country, which are the primary thrust line of the government. The world is experiencing a paradigm shift in the security threats and Bangladesh is no exception to that. Bangladesh, being a liberal and secular country, is also at the risk of being infested by radicalisation, which unless treated timely is likely to raise level of security threat higher. On such count, it is of paramount importance that the root causes of radicalisation require to be identified and necessary measures to be taken for early prevention of further fallout and for sustaining national security and development. Challenges of Bangladesh in tackling ORY are manifolds, which include inadequacy of clearly written policy and strategy, lack of awareness of the people and society, inadequate organizational structures, complexities in tracing the roots of the radical masterminds and many others. To tackle the ORY, Bangladesh needs institutionalised policy and strategy, appropriate organizational structure and setup, adequate cyber capability, addressing legal loopholes and integrating several stakeholders of the society to combat OR. With a comprehensive approach by all stakeholders, the radicalisation peril may very well be subdued or at least restricted to a reasonably safe level and national security and development can thus be strengthened/ensured.

Keywords: Secularism, Online Radicalisation, National Security.

INTERNET OF THINGS FOR BANGLADESH: PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES

Brigadier General Md Nasim Parvez, ndc, afwc, psc The Internet of Things (IoT) is an enhancement of the Internet that can be described as things or objects in our environment being connected anytime and anywhere with anything and anyone, so as to give seamless communications and external services. IoT is an important tool for improving the quality of human life. It is an enabler to the development and contributor to economic growth of

IX a country. IoT based applications are being used in many countries for improving agriculture, manufacturing, healthcare, transportation, education delivery, public services, building smart home and smart city, smart grids etc. Similarly, IoT is likely to have huge opportunities and positive impacts for the socio-economic development of Bangladesh. However, it also has a number of challenges: security risks of cyber-attacks, safeguarding and privacy of data. In addition, IoT devices, platform and protocols are yet to be standardized globally. The research is focused on the likely prospects and challenges of IoT in Bangladesh. The research will primarily explore the prospects of IoT in the socio-economic development sectors: agriculture, manufacturing, healthcare, education, business process, smart governance with public utility services, smart grid, smart cities etc.

IoT is expected to dominate the future world with numerous applications through interactions of billions of devices in our socio-economic lives. The rising popularity of IoT has been accompanied by a corresponding rise in the number of challenges. In this paper, the focus is on the current state of IoT deployment in Bangladesh, possible usage scenarios and challenges that influence the adoption of the IoT in Bangladesh. Bangladesh hasn’t yet adopted her ‘National IoT Policy’ for the adoption of IoT applications. It is therefore imperative to identify the prospects and challenges of IoT and develop national IoT policy and national strategies for adopting IoT in Bangladesh for her socio-economic development.

Keywords: IoT, Smart Applications, IoT Policy, IoT Strategies.

MARITIME SECURITY OF THE BAY OF BENGAL: JOINT IMPERATIVES OF ARMED FORCES AND MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS

Commodore Mir Ershad Ali, (G), NPP, ndc, psc, BN The Bay of Bengal (BoB), once a lacklustre maritime security space, has become the locus of great power politics in the recent past tangled with convergence and divergence of interests of the global and regional powers. As a whole, the geostrategic scenario of the Bay today is probably a textbook example of VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous) world. This research, perhaps as a maiden endeavour, has tried to implicate the VUCA model and aptly encapsulated the Strategic Maritime Security Environment (SMSE) of the BoB to be ‘Complex and Uncertain’. Prevalence of ‘multiplex of forces’ also acts as a catalyst to escalate the competing and conflicting environment in the Bay. The maritime risk repository contour suggests that the maritime security domain of Bangladesh can generally be characterized as ‘moderate to high risk’

X in terms of the impact and probability of the perceived threats. Such exposure to risks ultimately impacts the total security of the nation and renders the country to be a ‘Soft Maritime State’. Though mitigation of the posited risks in the maritime domain is a whole of government approach, yet a symbiotic collusion between the two vital instruments of national power; defence and diplomacy is the predominant necessity. However, there are multiple caveats and shortfalls that can be attributed to both the Armed Forces and the MoFA leading to weaken the mainstays of maritime security architecture. Therefore, both the organizations have to work in tandem to address the deficits in the ambit of maritime security of the country as a joint imperative. A host of integrated approaches have been suggested in the paper addressing the specific caveats and also identifying key areas where cooperative engagement could upsurge jointness and integration between the Armed Forces and MoFA. Maritime synergy is the key.

Keywords: Maritime Security; VUCA; Bay of Bengal; Foreign Policy; Naval Diplomacy.

SPEECH OF 7TH MARCH: POLITICAL DIRECTION TOWARDS INSPIRING THE NATION FOR FREEDOM

Joint Secretary Khan Md. Nurul Amin, ndc This paper analyzes the speech of 7 March of the Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman to find out political direction towards inspiring the nation for freedom. The Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman effectively declared independence of Bangladesh in historic speech of 7 March, 1971 in Ramna racecourse in front of a mammoth gathering by saying at the end of the speech “Our struggle, this time, is a struggle for our freedom. Our struggle, this time, is a struggle for our independence. Joy Bangla.” The people of the country got the final command and an invincible inspiration to fight for the liberation war against the Pakistani rulers through the speech. And this speech keeps inspiring the Bangalis generation after generation.

Spirit of 7 March should be validated in every helm of affairs in the national activities. The day of 7 March should be celebrated nationwide as national day by the government with due solemnity and fervor every year. And it can be termed as national day with the name of ‘Bangladesh Day’ or ‘the day of emancipation’ or ‘the day of renaissance.’

Keywords: Political Direction and Inspiration, Liberation War, Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman.

XI AN AUDIT OF THE JIGSAW – INDIA’S ‘ACT EAST’ AND THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA’S ‘INDO-PACIFIC’

Commodore Rajiv Ashok, ndc

The Indo-Pacific is turning out to be a keenly contested strategic arena. With the economy shifting to the East, with China dominating influence over the region, an increasing vocal India attempting to find a seat at the high table, the ASEAN states taking a lead in economic progress and the trade tariff war between US and China playing havoc in the world markets, the region has further come into focus. The US recognised the likely shift of the world’s centre of gravity and begun aligning its policies even before the Obama Administration came into power. Significant moves were seen during the Obama years and are perhaps the only continuity Trump has maintained in terms of policy with the previous administration. India too has “got its act together” and is acting eastward more with greater purpose to promote trade and prosperity.

The paper seeks to undertake an audit of the contested area mainly in terms of convergences and divergences between Indo-US policies. It addresses the contemporary geo-strategic issues of India’s ‘Act East’ Policy and USA’s ‘Indo- Pacific’ Strategy. It includes a brief genesis of the policy/ strategy; reasons for them acquiring the current state and inter-play between ASEAN and the US and India’s policies. The zones of convergence and divergences of the ‘Act East’ and ‘Indo Pacific Strategy’ have been identified which include the geographic understanding of both States, Geo-political and Geo-strategic realities/ compulsions for the respective stands, the need to ‘contain’ China and India’s desire to maintain Strategic autonomy. The recommended way ahead for Indian Foreign Policy has also been suggested.

Keywords: Act East, Indo-Pacific Strategy, Convergence and Divergence, India’s Foreign Policy.

CYBER THREATS AND NATIONAL SECURITY IN NIGERIA: STRATEGIES TO MITIGATE THE CHALLENGES

Group Captain Nosiru Babatunde Folaji, MSS, ndc, psc (+) The growing dependence on cyberspace for applications in virtually every aspect of human life, brings with it enormous vulnerabilities to cyber threats which impacts on national security. Cyber threats adversely affect the economy of

XII Nigeria and citizen’s wellbeing thereby undermining her national security. Despite, the FGN efforts at combating cyber threats by the establishment of the NCC, EFCC and NCWG amongst others, the menace have been on the increase in Nigeria. Hence, the rationale for this research work “Cyber Threat and National Security in Nigeria: Strategies to Mitigate the Challenges”. The research therefore examined the challenges against Nigeria in combating cyber threats on national security with a view to proffering strategies for overcoming the challenges.

The research was descriptive and data were obtained from both primary and secondary sources using field methods and document analysis. The research established that issues such as legal and institutional frameworks, multi- stakeholder collaboration and skilled manpower are associated with cyber threats. The identified challenges include decentralized enforcement framework of the Cyber Crime Act 2015, weak institutional capacity and lack of collaboration framework. Others are low capacity for manpower development and poor system security management culture.

The strategies to mitigate the challenges included amendment to the Cyber Crime Act of 2015, strengthening institutional capacity and establishment of Cyber Information Sharing and Analysis Centre (CISAC). Others are improved capacity for adequate skilled manpower and formulation of a National Information Technology Security Policy (NITSP). It is therefore recommended among others that the FGN, through the NASS should amend the Cyber Crime Act of 2015, enter bilateral technical relation to establish a cyber-warfare command and the development of skilled manpower through NICE. The aforementioned strategies and recommendations if implemented would provide useful roadmap in building offensive and defensive capabilities against cyber threats for enhanced national security of Nigeria.

Keywords: Cyber Threats, National Security and Strategy, Nigeria’s Perspective.

PSYCHOLOGICAL CONTRACT: TOWARDS ENHANCED INTERPERSONAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN OFFICERS AND MEN OF BANGLADESH ARMY

Colonel Md Syeedur Rahman, afwc, psc Army units are traditionally founded on strong interpersonal relations between officers and men where psychological bonding creates the impulse to remain focused on attainment of objectives. More so, today’s volatile, uncertain, complex,

XIII and ambiguous (VUCA) military operating environment demands enhanced interpersonal relations among all the members of a military unit. Psychological contract, widely practiced in business world, is an informal and unwritten set of obligations which assists in maintaining interpersonal relationship between the employer and employee, and resultantly, facilitates achievement of organizational goals. The objective of this study is to determine the effect of positive psychological contract on interpersonal relations between officers and men in the units of Bangladesh Army. This was a causal study and followed both quantitative and qualitative methodologies using surveys, interviews, and focus group discussions as major tools. Analysis of current interpersonal relations between officers and men in units of Bangladesh Army revealed insignificant improvement, thereby affecting the efficiency and performance of units. Considering requirement of significant improvement in the key components of interpersonal relations like trust, commitment, loyalty, teamwork, etcetera, necessity has been felt to look for an alternative approach to enhance the interpersonal relationship between officers and men in the units of Bangladesh Army. Psychological contract as an effective apparatus in maintaining healthy interpersonal relations in business organizations can be a fitting approach for Army units. The study theoretically established that positive psychological contract can substantially improve most of the weak components of interpersonal relations in Bangladesh Army units. The study proposed that formation of positive psychological contract should be the foundation in adopting any approach intended to improve interpersonal relations between officers and men in the units of Bangladesh Army.

Keywords: Interpersonal Relations, Psychological Contract, Bangladesh Army, Leaders and Led, Military Relationship.

UNDERSTANDING AND SHAPING-UP SOLDIERS’ PSYCHE: A VITAL NEED FOR ENHANCING FIGHTING POWER

Lieutenant Colonel Kazi Nadir Hossain, afwc, psc, G+, Artillery Some degree of miscommunication might develop between the leaders (officers) and men (soldiers) over the years in the Army. This miscommunication is exposed through the expression of dissatisfaction by the officers about their under command (UC) soldiers. However, in that scenario, the soldiers might also have grudge against their superior, which usually they won’t express due to many reasons. This happens, when they don’t understand each other’s psyche well, and the psyche of soldiers is not shaped-up based on military requirement. Being related to “Moral” and ultimately “Fighting Power”, this shortfall bears greater

XIV significance, and hence needs due attention. It is hypothesized that Understanding and shaping-up particular domain of soldiers’ psyche by officers would enhance the “Fighting Power”. Indeed, the broad objective of this research is to find out the ways of shaping-up soldiers’ psyche with a view to enhancing the “Fighting Power”. It is hoped, this research will signify the importance of understanding and shaping-up soldiers’ psyche, its impact on “Fighting Power” and finally the ways to shape-up the same.

Keywords: Soldiers’ Psyche; Fighting Power; Morale Component; Bangladesh Army; Shape/shaping Up Psyche.

INTEGRATION OF UNMANNED AIRCRAFT SYSTEM (UAS) OPERATIONS IN BANGLADESH AIRSPACE BESIDES MANNED AIRCRAFT: CHALLENGES AHEAD AND SUGGESTED SOLUTIONS

Group Captain Md. Rafiul Huq, BPP, afwc, psc Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UASs) have started encroaching upon the common- user airspace and striving to integrate their operations with manned aircraft. Though historically associated with military missions, UASs are increasingly proving their utility for internal security and disaster management. As a whole, its civilian and commercial uses are proliferating and racing ahead of technological development and operational mandate. Anticipating the proliferation of UAS technology, International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has called upon its member states to promulgate necessary rules and regulations to accommodate the operations of UAS into the national airspace besides flying of manned aircraft. The ultimate goal of ICAO is to provide the fundamental international regulatory framework to underpin operation of UAS throughout the world in a safe, harmonized and seamless manner comparable to that of manned operations. Like many other national agencies, Civil Aviation Authority of Bangladesh (CAAB) also responded to the call of ICAO by bringing out a circular on operations of UASs in the beginning of 2019. Though UAS offers tremendous opportunity in exploiting its versatile capabilities, unfortunately CAAB steps, as the primary regulatory body in Bangladesh, are not adequate to support UASs expansion in comparison to other countries. This has been manifested in recent circular on the issue. This circular has outlined few restrictions which limit UAS operations in non-segregated/non-restricted airspace and, thereby, impede the ultimate integration with manned aircraft operations in the national airspace and aerodrome. In this backdrop, this research is carried out to find out what are the

XV existing impediments in the process of integration of UASs into the national airspace of Bangladesh besides manned aircraft. After identifying those, this paper would try to recommend plausible solutions to those so that UASs can be effectively integrated with manned aircraft in the airspace of Bangladesh.

Keywords: Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS); Integration with Manned Aircraft; Bangladesh Airspace.

FULL RANGE LEADERSHIP FOR ENHANCED OPERATIONAL PROFICIENCY OF THE UNITS OF BANGLADESH ARMY

Colonel M A Saadi, afwc, psc A lot of discussion, research, and practices are prevailing to find the right leadership style for enhancing operational proficiency. Researchers and professionals are examining various leadership and motivation theories and functions. At this backdrop, Full Range Leadership may be more appropriate to deal with the under-commands as well as excel them for future employment with enhanced effectiveness for Bangladesh Army in an operational environment. Therefore, the researcher examined the influence and contribution of Full Range Leadership towards enhancing operational performance within the major units of Bangladesh Army. It was a non-experimental descriptive type of research. For a deeper understanding of the issue, both quantitative and qualitative methods were applied. IPSS Correlate Bivariate and thematic analysis are also used for correlation analysis. Leadership styles of few Commanding Officers were studied thoroughly to find out practical effect of Full Range Leadership on the operational proficiency of the units. The research found that the expected leadership attributes can address the identified challenges for enhancing operational proficiency. A significant correlation between expectation from leaders and factors contributing better operational proficiency is prevailing. It was inferred that Commanding Officers inclined towards Full Range Leadership, could mark their contribution for unit’s operational proficiency.

Keywords: Full Range Leadership; Commanding Officers; Major Units; Operational Proficiency.

XVI TRANS-BOUNDARY WATER SHARING: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF GANGES WATER SHARING TREATY 1996 AND FEW OTHER RELATED INTERNATIONAL TREATIES AND CONVENTIONS FOR IDENTIFYING CHALLENGES AND WAY FORWARD FOR BANGLADESH

Brigadier General Md Ahsanul Kabir, ndc, afwc, psc

Introduction

Bangladesh is the lowest riparian country in Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) River System. Around 230 rivers crisscross the country, all of which are mostly the distributaries of 57 trans-boundary rivers (Wikipedia, 2019, List of Rivers of Bangladesh). Out of 57 trans-boundary rivers, 54 flow into Bangladesh from India, whereas rest 3 flow in from Myanmar. It is an irony for Bangladesh that being the lowest riparian country she doesn’t have any control over annual flow of trans-boundary rivers, and solely depends on upstream country, mostly on India. As such, excessive volume of water causes widespread flooding and bank erosions during wet season, on the other hand, scarcity of water in dry season can be observed as a common consequence.

Since 1950, with India’s plan to construct Farakka Barrage across Ganges River, both Bangladesh and India are entangled with water sharing disputes. The major issue has always been the distribution of dry flow with India’s substantial amount of upstream withdrawal of water which cause serious adverse impact on over life and environment of Bangladesh. At present, out of 54 trans-boundary rivers, treaty on only one river exits – ‘Ganges Water Sharing Treaty 1996’ (Nishat, A. &. F. I. M., 2000, pp. 289-310), hereafter refer as ‘Ganges Treaty 1996’.

1 Trans-Boundary Water Sharing: A Comparative Analysis of Ganges Water Sharing Treaty 1996 and few other related International Treaties and Conventions for Identifying Challenges and Way Forward for Bangladeh

The study makes endeavors in encapsulating the major issues related to trans-boundary water sharing between Bangladesh and India taking Ganges Treaty 1996 as a case study. The background and content of the treaty together its comparisons with few other related existing international treaties, conventions, international norms, and practices would expose major weaknesses of the treaty. The study also makes necessary attempts to find out opportunities and challenges for Bangladesh while negotiating with her most important upstream country as India, and with other co-basin countries for achieving a mutually beneficial water sharing arrangements for entire South Asia region.

Literature Review Historical Perspective of Ganges Treaty 1996

The river management of undivided sub-continent used to be addressed by the British rulers. The first major flow intervention structure on the Ganges was Bhimgoda Barrage built in 1854 at the head works of upper Ganges Canal (BDP, 2017).

Immediately after the division of British-India in 1947, these upstream structures posed serious problems as the downstream governments were completely unaware on probable adverse consequences of these structures that drove first India-Pakistan talks in 1951 (Crow Ben, L. A. a. W. D., 1997). The proposed barrage at Farakka, 18 km from Bangladesh border, was highly objected by the then Pakistan Government, and indicated which from India’s point of interest was additional flow that needed for solving siltation problem of Kolkata port by constructing upstream dams. The construction of barrage started in 1964 and completed in 1975 (Crow Ben, L. A. a. W. D., 1997).

An interim Agreement was signed by both Bangladesh and India in 1975 allowing India to divert 11,000 to 16,000 cusec for 41 days (from April 21, 1975 to May 31, 1975) by operating feeder canal (Crow Ben, L. A. a. W. D., 1997). The situation completely changed after gruesome assassination

2 of the Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman on August 15, 1975, India started withdraw water unilaterally at upstream of Farakka Barrage (Parven A., and M. S. H., 2018, pp. 79-84). In 1976 Bangladesh raised the issue to United Nations (UN) for urgent resolution of the problem. A consensus statement in this regard was approved at 27th meeting of United Nations General Assembly on November 24, 1976. As an outcome, two countries met in Dhaka on November 5, 1977 for signing an agreement on sharing water of Ganges River at Farakka for five years (Crow Ben, L. A. a. W. D., 1997). In 1982 the five-year agreement of 1977 expired without any extension. On October 7, 1982 two countries signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) in order to continue provisions of Agreement on Ganges Water Sharing 1977.

On November 22, 1985 another MOU was signed by the two countries for sharing of water at Farakka for a period of three dry seasons commencing from 1986. After the expiry of this MOU in 1988 there was basically no agreement between the two countries for sharing of water till 1996. In 1996 Ganges Treaty 1996 was signed by the Prime Minister of Bangladesh Sheikh Hasina and the Prime Minister of India H. D. Deve Gowda on December 12, 1996 in New Delhi.

Salient Features of Ganges Treaty 1996

The treaty includes 12 articles and two annexures. The treaty is basically based on the division of volume of water to be released to Bangladesh at Farakka with validity for 30 years. The treaty is to be reviewed every five years or earlier by both the Governments in consistent with the principles of equity, fairness, and no harm to either party. The sharing would be at Farakka over 10-days periods from January 01 to May 31 every year. Annexure I of the treaty provides a formula that would be applied while releasing water to Bangladesh at Farakka. Each country would get a minimum of 35,000 cusec in alternate three 10-day periods from March 11 to May 10 each year. India as upper riparian country will leave no stones unturned to ensuring flows at Farakka as equal to 40-years average flow mentionedin annexure II. A Joint

3 Trans-Boundary Water Sharing: A Comparative Analysis of Ganges Water Sharing Treaty 1996 and few other related International Treaties and Conventions for Identifying Challenges and Way Forward for Bangladeh

Committee, comprising of equal members from both countries, was tasked to implement the provisions mentioned in the treaty. Both the countries would seek to finding a long-term solution to the problem of augmentation of flow of Ganges River, and would conclude on water sharing treaties for other common rivers also.

Indus Water Treaty 1960

With a view to utilizing available water judiciously and mutually benefitted way in Indus River System both India and Pakistan signed Indus Water Treaty on September 19, 1960 in Karachi (Wikipedia, 2019, Indus Water Treaty). The signing of the treaty was brokered by World Bank. According to this treaty, control over the water flowing in three ‘eastern’ rivers of India: Beas, Ravi, and Sutlej River, were given to India, while control for another three ‘western’ rivers of India: Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum River, were given to Pakistan. The treaty contains 12 Articles with another 7 Annexures incorporating the provisions of finance, exchange of information, future cooperation, dispute settlements, involvement of neutral experts, and court of arbitration etc. (Wikipedia, 2019, Indus Water Treaty). According to article VIII, Permanent Indus Commission was formed for ensuring implementation of the treaty.

Nile River Basin Cooperative Framework 1999

The Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) is a partnership among riparian states of Nile River Basin that seeks to develop the river in a cooperative manner, share substantial socioeconomic benefits, and promote regional peace and security (Wikipedia, 2019, Nile Basin Initiative). It was formally launched in February 1999 by Water Ministers of nine co-riparian countries: Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and Eritrea as observer. The institutional framework of NBI consists of three key institutions: Nile Council of Ministers, NBI Technical Advisory Committee, and NBI Secretariat (Wikipedia, 2019, Nile Basin Initiative). The agreement contains 44

4 Articles and 2 Annex covering wide range of provisions, like, general provisions, equitable and reasonable utilization, obligation not to cause significant harm, protection and conservation, regular exchange of data and information, water security, organs, headquarters and legal status, settlement dispute etc.

Agreement on Mekong River Basin 1995

To enhancing cooperation in a constructive and mutually beneficial manner for sustainable development, utilization, conservation and management of Mekong River Basin water Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam signed the agreement on April 5, 1995 (Agreement on the Cooperation for Sustainable Development of Mekong River Basin). The agreement contains 6 chapters that include a total 42 articles enunciating various provisions, such as, areas of cooperation, projects, programs and planning, protection of environment and ecological balance, sovereign equality and territorial integrity, reasonable and equitable utilization, maintenance of flows, freedom of navigation etc. According to Chapter IV, Mekong River Commission (MRC) was formed for the purpose of exercising its functions, enjoying the status of an international body including right to entering into agreements and obligations with donors and other international communities.

Convention on Protection and Use of Trans-boundary Watercourses and International Lakes

United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) is a regional commission of UN, established in 1947, currently has 56 states as member that include countries of Europe, North America (USA and Canada), Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) and West Asia (Israel) (UNECE, 2019, Water Convention).

Convention on Protection and Use of Trans-boundary Watercourses and International Lakes (Commonly known as ECE Water Convention) was

5 Trans-Boundary Water Sharing: A Comparative Analysis of Ganges Water Sharing Treaty 1996 and few other related International Treaties and Conventions for Identifying Challenges and Way Forward for Bangladeh adopted in Helsinki, Finland on March 17, 1992, came into force on October 6, 1996. As of September 2018, 43 parties have endorsed it including 42 member states of UNECE and European Union (EU) (UNECE, 2019, Water Convention). The convention aims to ensure national commitments for improving and identifying necessary steps needed for safeguarding and managing trans-boundary water bodies including both surface and ground water. When adopted, the convention was open only to member states of UNECE and regional economic integration organizations formed by such states (UNECE, 2019, Water Convention).

On November 28, 2003 two articles (25 and 26) related to membership procedures were amended allowing all UN member states to accede to the convention with an objective to promoting river basin cooperation throughout the world, and to share its experiences with other global regions.

UN Watercourses Convention 1997

Convention on Law of Non - Navigational Uses of International Watercourses was adopted at UN on May 02, 1997 (Wikipedia, 2019, Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses). The convention is aimed to conserve and manage international water resources including ground and surface water by establishing some norms to be followed by the basin states while utilizing these resources. After 17 years of its adoption, convention came into force on August 17, 2014, as Vietnam became the 35th and decisive signatory to the convention (Wikipedia, 2019, Convention on Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses).

Methodology Theoretical and Analytical Framework of Study

The study basically examines Ganges Treaty 1996 critically through the lens of three prominent international treaties, and two international

6 conventions for finding out major weaknesses of the treaty. The study also identifies few measures to be undertaken by Bangladesh for ensuring her future water security by rearranging existing institutional frameworks, and addressing differences and disputes over different water uses.

Research Method

The current research has been carried out primarily based on secondary sources of data and information by adopting ‘exploratory research approach’ for bringing out and unfolding the issues related to water sharing issues over common shared rivers between Bangladesh and India.

Literature Review have been done based on available published books, journal papers, newspapers articles, websites etc. Data gained from secondary sources were mostly taken through subjective analysis where individual judgments of the researcher were applied utilized.

Besides, Focused Group Discussion (FGD) and Key Informant Interview (KII) have also been conducted through ‘Structured Questionnaires’.

Comparisons of Ganges Treaty 1996 with Exiting Related Three International Treaties and Two International Conventions

Ganges Treaty 1996 has critically been examined; firstly, by comparing it with three prominent existing international water sharing treaties: Indus Water Treaty 1960, Nile River Basin Cooperative Framework 1999 (NBI 1999), and Agreement on the Cooperation for Sustainable Development of Mekong River Basin 1995 (MRC 1995).

Ganges Treaty 1996 has also been compared with another two international conventions: ECE Convention on Watercourses, and UN Watercourses Convention 1997.

7 Trans-Boundary Water Sharing: A Comparative Analysis of Ganges Water Sharing Treaty 1996 and few other related International Treaties and Conventions for Identifying Challenges and Way Forward for Bangladeh

Indus Water Treaty 1960 has been selected for understanding the consistency in negotiation process by related parties, and also the notions towards achieving a mutually benefitted water sharing with another co- riparian state. Since Ganges River is an international river that covers a wide basin area like Nile River and Mekong River, other two treaties have been selected for gleaning ideas as to how the cooperation among co- riparian countries could be established.

Comparisons among Four International Agreements/ Treaties and Weaknesses of Ganges Treaty 1996

Ganges Treaty 1996, in comparisons with other three international treaties discern certain inherent weaknesses. Followings are the major findings:

• None of these three treaties is time bounded, rather all are permanent in nature. On the contrary, Ganges Treaty 1996 is of limited duration validity only for 30 years. There are no guidelines as to in which direction the future cooperation would be steered on the expiry of treaty in 2026, although there is a provision in Article XII keeping scope to renewing the treaty on the basis of mutual consents. • In contrast to other three treaties, Ganges Treaty 1996 has not taken a whole basin approach. In the case of Mekong River Agreement, being basin states China (contributes 16-18% of the total volume of flow), and Myanmar (has less significant contribution) are not member. Both the countries became ‘dialogue partners’ to the agreement in 1996, and with their enhanced participations in various forums under this agreement, have been contributed significantly (Wikipedia, 2019. Mekong River Commission). • All three agreements include articles that clearly delineate cooperation on various water uses, and establish mechanisms for optimal, equitable, and reasonable uses keeping the environment sustainable. The Mekong Agreement has given special emphasizes on navigation, and generation of hydropower is common to all three treaties.

8 • The provisions of strong, robust, and Independent Permanent Commission are included within all three treaties, for implementing and monitoring during execution. On the other hand, Ganges Treaty 1996 has dysfunctional provision of Joint Committee only. The role of Joint River Commission (JRC) is only visible whenever any dispute remains unresolved at Joint Committee level.

• The regular exchange of information on the condition of watercourses among all basin states is a very common provision, whereas Ganges Treaty 1996 is devoid of any such provision for establishing any such mechanism.

• The dispute settlement mechanism as enunciated in Ganges Treaty 1996 is very insufficient. In all other cases, arbitration mechanism has well been incorporated together with the involvement of international third-party mediation. Indus Treaty 1960 was backed by World Bank, whereas Mekong River Agreement 1995 was a joint initiative of the member states with United States Agency for International Development (USAID), and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) (Wikipedia, 2019). Mekong River Commission), and Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) was sponsored by World Bank (Wikipedia, 2019. Nile Basin Initiative). All these three treaties highlight the importance on the involvement of any third party as crucial in reaching a common platform by the party states.

Comparison between ECE Convention on Watercourses and Ganges Treaty 1996

Ganges Treaty 1996 has certain wide deviations from various provisions and principles as enshrined in ECE Water Convention. Since its adoption in 1996, ECE Convention has achieved its principal objectives quite remarkably. The performance of the convention may best be described by three major facets. Firstly, the objectives are achieved by the parties with common watercourses in concluding the bilateral and multilateral

9 Trans-Boundary Water Sharing: A Comparative Analysis of Ganges Water Sharing Treaty 1996 and few other related International Treaties and Conventions for Identifying Challenges and Way Forward for Bangladeh agreements, all are done in accordance with part II of the convention. Examples are: 1994 Convention on Cooperation for the Protection and Sustainable Use of Danube River, Agreements on the Meuse River and Scheldt River etc. (UNECE, 2019. Water Convention). Secondly, the convention acts as the legal interface for other environmental conventions established under the auspices of UNECE. Examples are: 1992 Convention on Trans-boundary Effects of Industrial Accident (UNECE, 2019. Water Convention). Thirdly, the convention has a global dimension, spirited by which certain regional and global water instruments have been adopted outside the umbrella of UNECE, for example: UN Watercourses Convention 1997, and European Union Water Framework Directives.

Bangladesh should joining ECE Watercourse Convention taking the scopes created by two amendments in Articles 25 and 26. Bangladesh should also persuade other co-riparian countries for joining this platform, which would provide those countries with the deep insight for managing their water resources effectively and efficiently, as the principal objective of the convention is to promote, at all appropriate levels, the protection of human health and well-being through improving water management, protection of ecosystems, and by preventing, controlling, and reducing water-related diseases. ECE provides technical and financial support to the parties to the convention.

Ganges Treaty 1996 through the Lens of UN Watercourses Convention 1997

Comparison between the Ganges Treaty 1996 and UN Watercourses Convention 1997, clearly divulges that Ganges Treaty 1996 falls short of complying major criterions as proclaimed in the convention. Ganges Treaty 1996 includes the principles of equity, fairness, and no harm to either party without having any further definite amplifications.

Article 7 of UN Convention include a provision of demanding compensation for any significant harm done by any basin state to any other

10 co-riparian state or states (Wikipedia, 2019. Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses). This particular provision provides protections to the interest of lower riparian countries in the event of any such harm done, like, Bangladesh.

It is now appropriate time for Bangladesh to acceding the UN Convention. Bangladesh should make necessary endeavors to calculating the economic damages done to her by unilateral diversions and withdrawal of water by upstream country. UN Convention, as a global umbrella, would provide unique legal basses for establishing Bangladesh’s rights on water as downstream country. The convention recognizes the historical uses of the international rivers, as such, no upper riparian country can unilaterally withdraw water without prior consultation with all downstream countries.

Challenges Identified for Bangladesh on Sharing Water Resources

In order to deriving optimum benefits from any trans-boundary water resources, all co-basin countries must work together in developing suitable mechanisms and instruments for the overall development of the related basin areas. This is the basic principle of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM), defined as a process that promotes the coordinated development and management of water, land and related resources in order to maximize economic and social welfare in an equitable manner without compromising the sustainability of vital ecosystem and the environment (Global Water Partnership, 2011). Following sub paragraphs describe few challenges Bangladesh usually faces while negotiating with India, being the most important upstream country for Bangladesh, for an equitable and just sharing of water.

11 Trans-Boundary Water Sharing: A Comparative Analysis of Ganges Water Sharing Treaty 1996 and few other related International Treaties and Conventions for Identifying Challenges and Way Forward for Bangladeh

Policy on not Involving other related Stakeholders in Negotiation Process

Insistence adoption to ‘bilateral negotiation’ only in negotiation process without involving other co-riparian countries remains as a greatest barrier for finding out some holistic solution, which is not at all possible without active participations by all riparian countries. Understandably, the political will remains as the dominant factor over any technical, social, or environmental needs. Negotiation over basin wide water resources development should not be dealt like a ‘secret arms deal’, rather should be open, transparent, and fair. Any inclusive negotiation would yield the most beneficial outcome for all the parties involved.

Attitude of ‘Political Altruism’ Instead of ‘Political Utilitarianism’

The dictionary meaning of the word ‘altruism’ is ‘disinterested and selfless concern for the wellbeing of others’, while, that of ‘utilitarianism’ is ‘the doctrine that actions are right if they are useful for the benefit of a majority’ (Sidharth Thakur, 2011). Essentially, ‘altruism’ prescribes maximizing good consequences for everyone except for the actor itself, whereas, ‘utilitarianism’ prescribes acts that maximize good consequences for all of the society. In any negotiation over common rivers both upstream and downstream countries usually do not show sufficient empathy towards each other’s interest, and thereby most of the negotiation processes cannot yield any comprehensive permanent solution. Each party, largely fail to identify the actual water uses requirements by other party, actually upper riparian countries need to respect the rights of lower riparian neighbor over all basic water uses needs. Hananse 2014 describes Ganges Treaty 1996 as a water sharing agreement in its most primitive sense which largely favours substantially to upstream country’s interest largely (Hanasz, 2014), predominantly due to political altruistic attitude by upstream state. Ganges Treaty 1996 demonstrate that a legally binding agreement is not the same as the meaningful cooperation between the parties (Hanasz, 2014).

12 ‘Distributive Approach’ Instead of ‘Integrative Approach’ in Negotiation

In a ‘distributive negotiation’ also known as ‘fixed pie strategy’, every negotiator focuses on meeting his personal interest regardless of the loss others may have faced. In contrast, ‘integrative negotiation’ focuses on mutual interests of all the parties and thus comes up with constructive solutions that will be beneficial for all. Distributive negotiation ends up in a win-lose situation, whereas, integrative negotiation creates win-win situation. Thus, while integrative approach works as a conflict management tool, the distributive approach trigger conflicts.

During any negotiation process on water sharing between Bangladesh and India, both the countries remain focused on distributive approach of negotiation which ultimately do not lead to a comprehensive solution. As such, instead of considering how to maximize the benefits from all possible water uses and sharing those benefits fairly and equitably both the parties put highest emphasis to devise a formula for volumetric division of water.

Inconsistency in Negotiation Process

Either as upstream or downstream country, India do not necessarily maintain similar stands in her negotiation processes with all her riparian neighbors. For example, while keeping the provision of dispute resolving mechanism India cautiously keep the provision in both Indus Treaty 1961 with Pakistan, and also in Mahakhali Treaty 1996 with Nepal. However, such provision has not been included in Ganges Treaty 1996, as per the treaty, Joint Committee that consists of representative of equal number from both the countries should refer the disputed case to JRC for resolving the dispute at appropriate government level instead of involving neutral experts or solving through mediation or arbitration as in the cases of other treaties.

13 Trans-Boundary Water Sharing: A Comparative Analysis of Ganges Water Sharing Treaty 1996 and few other related International Treaties and Conventions for Identifying Challenges and Way Forward for Bangladeh

Role of Joint River Commission (JRC)

Recognizing the need for extensive cooperation for optimum utilization of common water resources in the most beneficial way, both India and Bangladesh formed JRC on 24 November 1972 (Nishat, A. &. F. I. M., 2000, pp. 289-310). The article 2 of the statute of JRC stipulate the organization of JRC as ‘Commission shall be constituted by each participating Government appointing a Chairman and three members; of these two shall be engineers. Article 3 states that Chairmanship of the Commission shall be held annually in turn by Bangladesh and India. Furthermore, article 4 describes all the intended functions of JRC ranging from ensuring meaningful joint efforts in optimizing the benefits from common river systems to flood control, irrigation, flood forecasting and cycle warnings etc.

Since inception Water Resources Minister of the respective countries performs as Chairman on behalf of their country. This provision, however, remained unimplemented.

Although Bangladesh has a separate entity know as Joint River Commission, Bangladesh but India doesn’t have any such separate entity. Department of Water Resources, River Development and Ganges Rejuvenation under ‘Ministry of Jal Shakti’ (Water Resources) looks after the functions of JRC (MoWRIN, 2019). Meetings were held sparsely below the number stipulated in the treaty that calls for four meetings in a year.

India’s Difficulties of having Conflict like Situations on Water Sharing among Various States

Inter-State Water Dispute Act 1956 was enacted directing Central Government to resolve the matter by consultation among aggrieved states and in case, if it doesn’t work then it may constitute tribunal. Due to certain drawbacks which caused extraordinary delays the act of 1966 was amended on 31 July 2019 as ‘Inter State Water Dispute Act (Amended)

14 2019’ (ClearIAS, 2018). According to this revised act, time given to ‘Dispute Resolution Committee’ consisting of experts from different fields one year for reaching a final verdict, failing of which, the case will be forwarded to a ‘Single Permanent Tribunal’ for final decision (ClearIAS, 2018).

India’s inter-state water disputes, and also the individual state’s fighting over its water rights against Central Government eventually effect adversely whenever there are endeavors for reaching any water sharing agreement on common rivers by both the countries. One such example: during the then Indian PM’s visit to Bangladesh in 2011, amid higher probability of signing the much waited Testa Water Sharing Treaty had to be dropped at the last minute, based on objections raised by one Chief Minister of Indian States.

Non-availability of Accurate and Reliable Data

Availability of accurate and reliable data is a pre-requisite for any effective negotiation over management and development of any watershed. Bangladesh lacks in using modern technologies like, sophisticated telemetry, remote-sensing technologies and satellite-based water resources information system (Shanjida S. U., S. T. S., 2017, pp. 93-117). There are other problems, like, validation, preservation, regular publication of data is not being practiced by concerned authorities. On the other hand, India has better data collection and modern preservation facilities using modern data acquisition technologies.

Opportunities and Way Forward for Bangladesh

Despite being surrounded by upstream countries, Bangladesh may still capitalize few opportunities for ensuring optimum utilization of her existing water resources. For that she may adopt a two-prong policy; firstly, for undertaking all possible actions, both structural and non-structural, for optimum use of her available water by compensating the scarcity of water in dry season with the excess water in wet season by preserving through necessary storage facilities, measures, or structures, and secondly, resorting

15 Trans-Boundary Water Sharing: A Comparative Analysis of Ganges Water Sharing Treaty 1996 and few other related International Treaties and Conventions for Identifying Challenges and Way Forward for Bangladeh to proactive, skillful, and effective negotiation with all co-basin countries for achieving an integrated water shed management for entire GBM River System region, comprises of three distinct separate river basins.

Non-structural and Structural Measures

Non-structural measures may include use of the concepts for achieving water efficiencies, particularly in the agricultural sector. Farmers across the country are misusing some 800 liters of water in producing each kilogram of paddy (Independent T 2016). Even though, it is possible to produce 1 kg of paddy using 2,500 liters of water, currently our farmers are using some 3,300 liters for the same amount of production, due to lack of awareness and access to the related information and techniques that can reduce the amount of water needed as input (Haque 2018). In this regard, applying the concept of ‘3R’, i.e., reduce, reuse, and recycle would definitely reduce the wastage of water both in agriculture and industry sectors.

In case of structural measures, construction of Ganges Barrage should get priority for conserving and preserving water for future uses. The already conceived Ganges Barrage Project would likely to be a blessing for the country, and should be constructed as soon as possible to recover the huge damages already done within Ganges Dependent Area (GDA) of Bangladesh thanks to the very location and operation of Farakka Barrage. It may be further expected that Ganges Barrage would meet the demand of water for agriculture, fisheries, ecosystem and navigation within GDA. The augmented flow provided by the barrage would restore original flow of Gorai River, and additionally will improve navigation for Mongla Port, restoration of bio-diversity of Sundarbans, reduce salinity problem within GDA etc. The already adopted Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 (BDP 2100) recommends construction of Ganges Barrage as one of the top priority projects for Bangladesh (BDP, 2017).

Bangladesh should undertake necessary endeavors for improving her water storage capacity by regularly digging and dredging wet lands and rivers. It

16 would help preserve surface water, improve drainage system, and forest management through tree plantation. These efforts would also sustain environmental balance by containing flood and rainwater for future uses.

Bangladesh must enhance her capacity in regards to data collection, validation, and preservation using modern technology for data acquisition and validation.

Engage in Proactive, Meaningful Negotiation with co- basin Countries

Besides undertaking all possible measures to ensuring optimum use of available water, Bangladesh may engage herself with proactive, skillful, and effective negotiation process with all co-basin countries for achieving basin-wide solution for an equitable and just utilization of available water resources within GBM River System region.

Bangladesh should start preparing for negotiation over sharing of water of Ganges River, as Ganges Treaty 1996 which has a validity for only 30 years would expire in 2026.

For achieving a basin wide solution each river basin has to be dealt as a single entity following the principles of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM). Figure 1 illustrates one such probable proposed negation model with co-basin countries.

17 Trans-Boundary Water Sharing: A Comparative Analysis of Ganges Water Sharing Treaty 1996 and few other related International Treaties and Conventions for Identifying Challenges and Way Forward for Bangladeh

Figure 1: Proposed Negotiation Model with co-basin Countries by Bangladesh

Creating Institutions to Support Negotiation

Bangladesh should develop her institutional capacity for enhancing bargain capabilities to be based on relevant facts and figures. In this regard, a separate Division under Ministry of Water Resources (MoWR) may be established to deal with all trans-boundary river issues; may be named as trans-boundary River Division. Although at present JRC-Bangladesh looks after the matters related to trans-boundary rivers, but this institution cannot be mobilized for any engagement and negotiation with other co- basin countries as it was established as an outcome of India-Bangladesh Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Peace 1972.

18 Shifting in Attitude from ‘Distributive Approach’ to ‘Integrative Approach’ in the Negotiation Process

The crux of having a weak solution while negotiating over sharing of water with co-riparian partners is to put more emphasis on ‘quantum division’ instead of ‘sharing the benefits’ by all parties involved. This type of notion during negotiation develops only when the parties involved usually resort to ‘distributive approach’ rather than to ‘integrative approach’ while negotiating. Bangladesh may adopt following measures in a bid to bringing shifts in this type of distributive approach in future negotiations:

• Bangladesh should continue utilizing all her available diplomatic means and methods through formal diplomatic channels following recognized customs and etiquette, known as track-one diplomacy. Simultaneously, negotiations following track-two, track-1.5, para diplomacy, and multi- track diplomacy should also be continued for bringing all the co-basin countries under a single common platform.

• Media should be utilized to creating public opinion through transparency in order to develop mass awareness and public pressure over respective Governments for utilizing the water resources within GBM River System in sustainable, judicious, and mutually beneficial ways for all co-riparian countries.

• Involvement of an international third party for mediating the negotiation process as many successful negotiations leading to a consensus solution on water sharing were backed by the international bodies like, World Bank, IMF, USAID, Asian Development Bank etc.

• A pool of experts needs to be created for knowledge generation, both in negotiation and in the field of research for strengthening the capacity of Bangladesh. The renowned universities of the country should introduce departments and faculties on water resources management and engineering.

19 Trans-Boundary Water Sharing: A Comparative Analysis of Ganges Water Sharing Treaty 1996 and few other related International Treaties and Conventions for Identifying Challenges and Way Forward for Bangladeh

• Bangladesh may employ some recognized lobbyist group to persuade the other co-basin countries to bring all the related stakeholders to a common understanding and platform. Lobbyists may convince legislators to vote on public policy in favour of their clients’ interests.

Incorporating the Social, Economic, and Environmental Considerations of Water Sharing including Climate Change Issue

Once the consensus among the co-basin countries have reached, it is the time to incorporating social, economic and environmental considerations of water sharing. Bangladesh should assess all her needs and demand of water in a justified manner and bring maximum benefit out ofthe utilization of water.

No considerations over climate change issue is one major weakness of Ganges Treaty 1996. Bangladesh is one of the worst affected countries due to climate change phenomenon. Any future negotiation should incorporate the climate change issue appropriately.

Creation of Institutes for Implementing Agreements

For implementation of any successful agreement appropriate institutional mechanism must be established for supervision, planning, execution, monitoring, emergency situation management, reporting, and research and development etc. There are many successful basin management organization/institutions around the globe implementing and monitoring such agreements and treaties, GBM River System region has to adopt certain kind of institutional mechanism also.

Conclusion

In this study, Ganges Treaty 1996 has been compared with three selected prominent international water sharing treaties and also measured against

20 the standards set out at two international conventions. The comparisons have revealed that all the international treaties and conventions under comparison adopt basin wide approach, whereas Ganges Treaty 1996 has not taken this approach rather resorts on bilateral approach only leaving all other basin countries out of negotiation.

None of these three treaties are time bounded rather all those are permanent in nature. On the contrary, the Ganges Treaty 1996 has the validity only for 30 years which will expire in 2026.

By all comparisons, Ganges Treaty 1996 actually fall short of certain international standard, norms, and practices. It has been further revealed that the Ganges Treaty 1996 is basically a volumetric division of water at a fixed point of Farakka for a limited duration only without taking into account of other water uses and mutual benefits. Failure to keep a provision of arbitration mechanism automatically turns the treaty as weakly bonded.

The usual negotiation processes between two countries over water sharing may be attributed to certain weaknesses: over dependences on ‘bilateral negotiation’, coupled with attitude of ‘political altruism’ instead of ‘political utilitarianism’, looking the downstream country as ‘beneficiary’ instead of ‘shared partner’, relying more on ‘distributive’ instead of ‘integrative’ approach of negotiation etc.

The Joint River Commission (JRC) was formed as an outcome of India- Bangladesh Treaty 1972 could not be fully functional to address all the issues as stipulated related to trans-boundary water sharing.

The non-availability of accurate and reliable data poses great challenges during any fruitful negotiation over management and development of any watershed.

Bangladesh may adopt a two-prong policy; firstly, for undertaking all possible actions, both structural and non-structural, for the best possible use of her available water, and secondly for resorting to effective and skillful proactive negotiation with all co-basin countries.

21 Trans-Boundary Water Sharing: A Comparative Analysis of Ganges Water Sharing Treaty 1996 and few other related International Treaties and Conventions for Identifying Challenges and Way Forward for Bangladeh

The non-structural measures may include: use of the concept of water efficiencies in agriculture; use the concept of 3R (Reduce, Reuse, and Recycle) principle in industries, growing awareness among the common water users; on the other hand, structural measures may include; construction of Ganges Barrage; increase of channel storages capacities; enhancing the capacity for data collection, validation and preservation are notable.

By resorting to proactive, skillful, and effective negotiation Bangladesh may strive for shifting in attitude from ‘distributive approach’ to ‘integrative approach’ through diplomacy following track-one, track-two, track-1.5, para diplomacy, and multi-track diplomacy. Other measures may include, creation of public opinion trough transparency using mass media, involvement of any international third party for mediating negotiation, employment of lobbyist group, research and knowledge generation and creation of pool of experts, incorporating the social, economic and environmental including climate change considerations of water sharing, creating institutions to support negotiation, and finally creating institutions for implementing the agreements. Understandably, the political would remain as the dominant factor over any technical, social, or environmental needs.

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20. Wikipedia, (2018), Ganges Barrage Project. [Online] Available at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ganges_Barrage_Project [Accessed 7 August 2019].

24 Author

Brigadier General Md Ahsanul Kabir was commissioned in Corps of Engineers of Bangladesh Army on 22 December 1989. Besides attending all the mandatory courses, he has been graduated from Defence Services Command and Staff College (DSCSC), Mirpur. He has earned B.Sc Engineering (Civil) and M.Sc in Water Resources Engineering from Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), also has attended Armed Forces War Course (AFWC) and National Defence Course (NDC) at the premium defence institution of Bangladesh National Defence College (NDC), Mirpur. Serving at almost all levels of Staff and Command appointments, he also has served as Senior Instructor of Military Institute of Science and Technology (MIST), he is the founding Head of the Department of Environment, Water Resources, and Coastal Engineering Department of the same institute.

25 EFFICACY OF CAPITALISM IN THE 21ST CENTURY TOWARDS PURSUIT OF HAPPINESS AND PROSPERITY: TAKEAWAYS FOR BANGLADESH FROM MALAYSIA AND CHINA

Brigadier General Abdullah Al Mamun SPP, ndc, psc, G

Introduction

“Capitalism” is termed as an economic, social and political system. Here mostly private-owners regulate business, industry and profit where the country has minimum/no role. Private entrepreneurs can expand the market with inclusion of technology and innovation and those primarily focuses on profit maximization (Schaefer et el 1998, pp. 452-454). Opposed to Capitalism, “Socialism,” a political and economic system developed by Karl Marx (1818-1883) and Friedrich Engels (1805-1895), two German Philosophers and Socialist Revolutionaries in the mid-19th Century. They wanted to abolish economic exploitation. In this system production and distribution of resources is the responsibility of the society/state instead of owning privately. The basic objective of this system is to exert pro- people notion.

In today’s world most of the rich and powerful countries adopt Capitalists’ Model of economy whereas a few countries like China and Russia have Socialists’ Model. Of course since 1980s from the President Dang Xiao Ping, China is adopting mix economic policy where the country is reaping benefits also from Capitalists’ Model. A professor of University of California namely William I. Robinson said, “We face a global crisis that is unprecedented in the terms of its magnitude, its global reach, the extent of ecological degradation and social deterioration, and the scale of the means of violence.” He hinted on the uncertainty, unhappiness and concern for the future of the world as well as capitalism (Robinson I, 2014, pp.1-2).

26 Adam Smith’s Capitalism of the 18th Century have progressed through many parts of the world and is still on sail in the 21st Century. The faces of Capitalism is different in different countries like in the US, China, Malaysia and even in Bangladesh. Possively, it has both positive and negative outcomes. Therefore, we need to examine the “Efficacy” of Capitalism for Bangladesh that wants to be both happier and more prosperous and those are the focus of this research.

Methodology

The research was mostly a qualitative one based on content analysis from both primary and secondary sources of data and information. Primary sources included interviews/discussions with the scholars/experts. Secondary sources were books, articles, publications and internet contents. A survey (both Field Questionnaire) was carried out to validate research findings. Questionnaire survey was based onopinion of scholars and academicians through open/close-ended questions.

Research Results and Analysis of Survey Reports

To obtain opinion, 87 personnel of the age around 50 years were served with questionnaire. They were the course members of National Defence Course-2019. Occupation of the respondents were senior military officers of 17 countries including Bangladesh. Both Foreign and Civil Services officers and two police officers of Bangladesh also participated in the poll. People from all major religions opined as voluntary basis. Questions and Answers of the survey are mentioned bellow:

Do you think that “Capitalist Economy” is the best for ensuring happiness in the society?

27 Efficacy of Capitalism in The 21St Century towards Pursuit of Happiness and Prosperity: Takeaways for Bangladesh from Malaysia and China

Table 1: Answers and Comments on “Capitalist Economy” and Happiness Agreed Disagreed No Forty Seven out of Sixty One had (Yes) (No) Comment Some Comments Some commented that rich people were becoming richer where a few opined that happiness was an internal matter. 24 34 03 One responder viewed for “Islamic way of distribution of wealth (Zakat)” for happiness.

Figure 1: Graphical Summary of the Survey on “Capitalist Economy” and Happiness

Yes No No Comment

Graphical Summary of The Survey

• Do you think that at global scale Transnational Capitalists Classes (TCC) who control economy and help the parties to win election, can ensure Happiness?

Table 2: Answers and Comments on TCC Agreed Disagreed No Eight of Sixty One had Some (Yes) (No) Comment Comments TCC cannot ensure happiness. Some of them aspire to win election and made more money. 11 47 03 A few responders pointed out that happiness depends on country’s polity and governance.

28 Figure 2: Graphical Summary of the Survey on Views on TCC and Happiness 5% 18%

77%

TCC Can Ensure Happiness

TCC Can not Ensure Happiness No Comment

• Do you think that Prosperity and Happiness is Uni-directional or proportional?

Table 3: Answers and Comments on Prosperity and Happiness Agreed Disagreed No One out of Sixty had Some (Yes) (No) Comment Comments One responder felt that in this realists’ world, prosperity and happiness was proportional except 28 23 09 the ‘Sad matter”. He opined that people prefer to be rich and sad than to be poor and sad.

29 Efficacy of Capitalism in The 21St Century towards Pursuit of Happiness and Prosperity: Takeaways for Bangladesh from Malaysia and China

VIEWS ON PROSPERITY AND Figure 3: Graphical SummaryHAPPINESS of the Survey on Prosperity and Happiness PROSPERITY AND 15% HAPPINESS ARE PROPORTIONAL PROSPERITY AND 47% HAPPINESS ARE NOT PROPORTIONAL 38% NO COMMENT

• Do you think that religious norms may make people less rich, yet it can make them happier?

Table 4: Answers and Comments on Religious Norms and Happiness Agreed Disagreed No Three out of Sixty had Some (Yes) (No) Comment Comments Two of them commented that “religion make happier.” Rest 39 18 03 another responder viewed that religious norms and rich were conflicting issues.

Figure 4: VIEWSGraphical SummaryON RELIGIOUS of the Survey NORMS on Religious Norms and Happiness AND HAPPINESS

BELIEVES RELIGIOUS 5% NORMS MAKE HAPPIER 30% BELIEVES RELIGIOUS 65% NORMS DO NOT MAKE HAPPIER NO COMMENT

30 Do you think that more development projects will increase more inequality in Bangladesh?

Table 5: Answers and Comments on Development Projects and Inequality Agreed Dis-agreed No Ten out of Sixty had Some (Yes) (No) Comment Comments Two of responders opined that development projects gave more opportunity yet it needed control for inequality. Two of them hinted that lack of good governance might trigger inequality. Two 19 39 02 overseas members believed that corruption and inequality depended on types of projects. Four of them believed that more projects would incur more corruption and it would lead further inequality.

Figure 5: GraphicalVIEWS Summary ON ofDEVELOPMENT the Survey on Development Projects and Inequality PROJECTS AND INEQUALITY

BELIEVE-MORE PROJECTS MORE INEQUALITY 3%3% 32% DO NOT BELIEVE 65% -MORE PROJECTS MORE INEQUALITY

31 Efficacy of Capitalism in The 21St Century towards Pursuit of Happiness and Prosperity: Takeaways for Bangladesh from Malaysia and China

• Do you think that we may need to change our primary education system for making ‘Happier Bangladesh?’

Table 6: Answers and Comments on Change of Primary Education System of Bangladesh Agreed Disagreed No Twelve of Sixty One had Some (Yes) (No) Comment Comments Three responders opined to change the syllabus and to include moral and motivational teaching. Five of them focused on research on the 43 14 04 education system. One of them opined for introduction of 4.0 education system. Two responders opined for unitary education system at primary level.

Figure 6: Graphical Summary of the Survey on Change of Primary Education System

POLL ON CHANGING PRIMARY EDUCATION SYSTEM FOR HAPPIER BANGLADESH

7% NEED TO CHANGE PRIMARY 23% EDUCATION SYSTEM DOES NOT NEED TO CHANGE PRIMARY EDUCATION 70% SYSTEM NO COMMENT

Responders’ Views for Perceiving a “Prosperous and Happiest Bangladesh” in Future

Almost 64% (39 out of 61) responders both national and international course members of National Defence Course-2019 contributed to list

32 down their views for prosperous and happiest Bangladesh. Many of them pointed on the stability in politics, reduction of corruption and inequality in the society for prosperity and happiness of Bangladesh. Our education should focus more on ethical values and moral teaching. Most of the responders opined that all religion speak about peace, happiness and morality. Government should ensure rule of law, justice and transparency in governance. Through the optimistic lens most of the Bangladeshi course members viewed to rise educated middle class, develop human resources and accept criticism on state affairs.

Common Issues Mentioned by the Scholars on Prosperity and Happiness

All of them opine to improve on two basic issues like primary education and healthcare as the major drivers of prosperity and happiness. Dr Anu Mohammad points out that number of schools, and pass percentage are not the real indicators-quality matters. Here we need to improve a lot. Mr Ali Imam Majumder, Ex-Cabinet Secretary mentioned that there is no university of Bangladesh ranked out of 417 universities of Asia and Pacific Ocean region (Majumder, 2019, p. 10).

Discussion on the Subject- Capitalism and Socialism: A Comparison

In 1776 Adam Smith’s “Wealth of Nations”, an economic theory motivated the people for larger investments. In capitalism, private owners control productions and their motivation for economic motion is the accumulation of profits (Schaefer, 1998, p. 452). Dr Abul Barakat, a Professor of Department of Economics, Dhaka University opined that businessmen of today want the government should only work as night guard-no intervention at all for their gain.

Karl Marx (1818 -1883) and a German philosopher Friedrich Engels (1805- 1895) were the proponent of Socialism. After Adam Smith’s “Wealth of

33 Efficacy of Capitalism in The 21St Century towards Pursuit of Happiness and Prosperity: Takeaways for Bangladesh from Malaysia and China

Nations” in 1776, Marx published his book (1st Volume) “Capital” in 1867. He did so after observing the unhappiness of the workers of the industries (proletariat) due to Capitalism. There had been economic growth, yet vast rural migrants crowded into urban slums.

Positive Effects of Capitalism

• Free enterprise that stimulates prosperity. • Property Rights: Government do not control the business. • Profit Motive: Private businesses focus on making money.and this is the top priority. • Technological advancement that encourages modernization. • Global capital works with globalism. • Competitiveness and innovation.

Negative Effects of Capitalism

Capitalism Encourages Nexus: A Bad Practice for Disparity in Classes. Due to the system (give and take) nexus may grow between the owners of the companies and the law enforcers of the state in the basis of “win-win” policy. History records that Capitalism created disparity in the classes (Piketty, 2014, pp. 256-258). Details are as under:

Figure 7: Capitalism Enhances Disparity in Classes

Source: Thomas Piketty, (2014), Capital in the Twenty - First Century. p. 257

34 Global Capitalism Causes Crisis of Humanity. Global Capitalism is extremely unstable and crisis- provoked system. Because no nation can be away or avoid the influence of global economy. It can penetrate through the social, political, and cultural superstructure. Due to massive hunch for economic growth and/or to be popular for next and subsequent elections in democratic system, mankind have played foul to the nature and the people at large.

Global Capitalism Forces to “End of the Nation- State”: Develops Energetic Individualism. Capitalists largely depend on class interest (mostly for trade/gain), ignoring the territory centric nation-states. Alarmingly it is noticed that members of the capitalists’ class now value more to the group members then that of own family members for them they are socially and religiously responsible (Robinson I, 2014, p. 2). According to William I. Robinson, a class namely Transnational Capitalist Class (TCC) have emerged and it is again synonymous to super rich/elite.

Capitalism Provokes Conflict and Lies Get More Value: Humanity Suffers. Economic and financial crimes can lead to political and social instability (Soros, 1998, p. 150). US invaded Iraq in the plea of confiscating “Weapon of Mass Destruction” and saving the world from a great danger. Finally It seemed a “Great Lie”. Because, the story of 9/11 attack have created enormous confusions amongst the people, specially to those of Arab and Muslim world. According to Holy Quran, 9 is the serial of Surah (Chapter, At-Taubah), 11 is the number of Para or Juzz (making 9/11). The most surprising is that Twin-Tower had 110 stories. Quran says in 110th verse of that Surah, “The building which they built will never cease to be cause of hypocrisy and doubt in their hearts unless their hearts are cut to pieces. (i.e till they die). And Allah is All-knower, All-wise.” (The Noble Quaran-9.110). Many Muslims claim that possibly it was a plot to invade Iraq and remove Saddam Hossain, Iraqi president for ever. Their claim became stronger when they found that the Twin Towers were constructed in 1973, by an American architect Minoru Yamasaki with the help of an architecture firm namely Emery Roth and Sons. It was a family owned firm

35 Efficacy of Capitalism in The 21St Century towards Pursuit of Happiness and Prosperity: Takeaways for Bangladesh from Malaysia and China of Mr Emery Roth, a Jews descent and the firm was functional from 1938 to 1996 (Wikipedia.org, 2019, Emery Roth). Again, S.V. Salauddin in his book namely “Islam, Peace and Conflict” coined it as rumour (Salauddin, 2008, p. 258). The privatization of warfare and subjugation is another dimension of Capitalism in the 21st Century. Privatization of war is controlled by rich countries as well as rich people. Those clusters among the TCC that benefits from the privatization of war, weaponization, policing and social control have an economic interest in generating and sustaining conflicts, specially in Africa.

Figure 8: African People are Poor as they have Mineral Resources Controlled by External Powers

Source: Researcher’s work experience in DR Congo and Facebook

Even the global wars are increasingly fought by private armies and contracted out by states. In the first Gulf War of 1990, one out of every 100 soldiers had a private contractor. During the war at former Yugoslavia the figure was one in fifty. By 2006 it was in every ten in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Declining Trust to Government: A Recent Outcome of “Crony Capitalism.” Recently leaders and media pundits have concluded that in the democratic and open market environment, there are reasons for declining trust to any government (Warren, 1999, pp. 214). In modern societies where most of the people are realists, believe “Money is the second God” (Rajib, 2019). Recently, in the UK, most of the senior citizens opine for a review of economic and social system. Dr Samia Huq during interview, terms today’s Capitalism as “Crony Capitalism” and she agrees with the present state of Capitalism of the US.

36 Figure 9: Impact of Crony Capitalism as Portrayed by Don Sorchych, an US Journalist

Source: https://www.google.com/search?q=crony+capitalism and collection by the Researcher

Spillover effect of such trend has traveled worldwide.

Contesting Views: Capitalism is a “Scapegoat”. Dr Sinha M A Sayeed, Founder and Chairman, Leadership Studies Foundation (LSF) opines that “there is no fault of ‘Capitalism’ as a concept. Rather it is the fault of the corrupted people of generations after generations who systematically misused it and by their evil design, acquired illegal money/wealth”. Democracy with Capitalism was puritan where people respected culture and religion of various faiths in the era of Adam Smith as pointed out by Dr Samia Huq during interview.

Capitalism never theorized to misuse the surplus wealth of any country by utilizing those to support war and conflicts in weak countries to grab their wealth by lies. In reality powerful countries have made alliance with similar status to squeeze the wealthy yet weak countries in Africa and Middle East (ME). In fact it was beyond the imagination of the social scientists in the 18th Century when Capitalism started its journey (Rajib, 2019). Therefore, Capitalism in the 21st Century may be termed as “Scape Goat” whereas people who operate the trade, economy and policy are solely responsible for anomalies as mentioned above.

37 Efficacy of Capitalism in The 21St Century towards Pursuit of Happiness and Prosperity: Takeaways for Bangladesh from Malaysia and China

Definition of Prosperity

According to dictionary.com, “Prosperity is the state of flourishing, thriving, good fortune or successful social status”. It often speaks about wealth where some documents hint towards health and happiness. For example, restless works in longer hours may increase economic prosperity, but it can take out both mental and physical happiness. Many social researchers conclude that increased income, wealth and power does not portray the prosperity in real terms as it does not increase the happiness. A few non- financial areas like personal understanding on life, family values/bonds and both mental and physical health yield prosperity (Wikipedia.org, 2019. Prosperity).

Definition of Happiness

Bertrand Russell in his book “The Conquest Happiness” defined “Happiness, as is evident, depends, partly, upon external circumstances and partly upon oneself.” According to him many people believe that happiness is impossible without a faith or religion. Russell pointed out that genuine causes of happiness and unhappiness were adoption of happy and unhappy creeds (Russell, 2008, pp. 170-171).

Definition of Happiness from the Researcher’s Experience. Happiness is more of “abstract” than the “reality” and it involves more of respect and satisfaction. In a word, all human beings must be able to acquire “basic needs” and he/she cannot be happy without it. Happiness also depends on situation, family bonds and culture involving respect, love and even fear. When huge Rohingya people could merely escape from Myanmar unhurt in late August of 2017, load of some mothers to their sons’ shoulders even generated happiness on their way to Bangladesh.

38 Figure 10: Rohingya Families Escape Unhurt from Myanmar - A Symbol of Happiness even the most Beloved and Respected Mother gives Pain on Shoulders

Source: Getty Images from internet

Happiness and unhappiness are contesting issues due to the variety of culture, religion and notion of the country(s) for economy (prosperity at large). A sixty years old coconut seller in Pattaya, Thailand regretted to the researcher. He narrated that his children slept whole day as they work at night and they (his Children) had no time to look after them. None of the children were married and he saw no future of their family. With tears he was describing his story of forty years ago. He continued: without even electricity at night they had minimum two hours meeting after dinner where family members of three to four generations gossiped. He said to the researcher, “Money of some people took our happiness and we became poorer both economically and morally. In good hotels and buildings there is no decent life-it is there like beasts or the same as like ancient uncivilized era” .It is worth mentioning that Thailand owes 260 billion baht from sex industry (2% of total GDP). Bangladeshi culture is different and Muslims claim it is more decent and heavenly (news.thaivisa.com, 2019, p.1). Heavenly, is because still we have families who visit the beach city like Cox’s Bazar to enjoy the weather and beauty of “Monsoon Rain”. Parents and children together in the tourist places yield many positive elements of human values. Economists of Bangladesh possibly need to be firm on restoration of religious, societal, cultural and family values instead of a rush for higher GDP by any means.

39 Efficacy of Capitalism in The 21St Century towards Pursuit of Happiness and Prosperity: Takeaways for Bangladesh from Malaysia and China

Figure 11: Pattaya, Thailand (left 2) and Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh (right) -Value Differs

Source: https://news.thaivisa.com/article/14808/thai-sex-industry- now-worth-260-billion-baht-

Relation between Prosperity and Happiness: Security is Within

According to World Happiness Index 2019, Bhutan, Bangladesh, India rank 95th, 125th and 140th accordingly. On the contrary the GDP growth in the same year of India, Bangladesh and Bhutan is 7.5, 7.1 and 6.8 respectively. Above phenomenon shows that growth: development/ prosperity has moved to the opposite direction of happiness.

Figure 12: Symbolic Pictures of Happiness and Prosperity where Security Remain in Between

Source: Social Media and Internet

40 Comparison among the Elements of Capitalism and Indicators of Prosperity and Happiness of Bangladesh, Malaysia and China

Table 7: Country Profiles: Bangladesh, Malaysia and China Subject/ Issue Bangladesh Malaysia China GDP in terms of Per capita Per Capita Per capita Purchasing Power $19,520 $4,992 (136th) $32,501 (41st) Parity (PPP) (73rd) World Happiness Index 2019 (out of 125th 80th 93rd 156 Countries World Corruption Index out of 180 149th 61th 87th Countries-2108 Mixed Mixed Socialist Economic System economic economic market system system economy Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia, https://data. worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gnp.pcap.pp.cd?locations=BD, https://www.transparency.org/cpi2018, World Happiness Report and Global Terrorism Index 2019

Comparative Analysis on Happiness and Prosperity among the above Mentioned Countries Bangladesh is the most densely populated among the countries above. Bangladesh and Malaysia have majority of Muslim population. Both countries havemulti-party democratic system. In the parliament Bangladesh has 61.07% businessmen who are supposed to be policy makers. Technologically Malaysia is more developed in science and technology, hence “Made in Malaysia” is a good brand. As regards to the moral and ethical practices in the business, Malaysia’s model seem to be better. Moreover, for every action each Malaysian citizen is accountable to the country. Malaysia has introduced “Islamic Banking System” with “Sharia Law”. 41 Efficacy of Capitalism in The 21St Century towards Pursuit of Happiness and Prosperity: Takeaways for Bangladesh from Malaysia and China

Study finds that Since the 1980s, China was adopting “socialist market economy” where the government control the mega projects. Chinese people are happier than Bangladeshi people because of rule of law, security and the trust to the government of its citizen. China, being a one party nation, has a history of five thousand years where some parts of its political and social philosophy stemmed from Confucius. Confucianism is humanistic as emerged around 4th Century BC in China.

Have we Achieved Prosperity? - A Retrospect

Yes, we have archived prosperity in wealth and money since our independence of 1971. Statement of Father of the Nation in UN in 1974 and the same of the Honourable Prime Minister (HPM) Sheikh Hasina in 2014 had the similarity as regards to goals and objectives of the nation.

Figure 13: Important Speeches of Father of the Nation and Present Prime Minister

Source: Lecture of Ambassador Syed Masud Mahmood Khandoker on 10 July 2019

42 Takeaways for Bangladesh

What are We and What do We Think to Be? Philosophy of the top leadership of Bangladesh, HPM on peace, prosperity and happiness has been delineated on 15 November 2017 in the parliamentary speech. She said, ‘‘we believe in peace. We want all in the region live in peace. Our main target is to develop the economy of our country. Ensuring peace is necessary for achieving the target,’’ Since 25 August 2017, Bangladesh had to faces influx of Rohingya populace. Despite resources scarcity, so far Bangladesh is hosting them which is an exemplary gesture of humanity by the top leadership. This philosophy not only, enhances the image of HPM, but also shapes the mind of future generations.

Figure 14: Prime Minister of Bangladesh is visiting Rohingya Camp

Source: mygoldenbengal.wordpress.com Sheikh Hasina True “Mother of Humanity”

Rethinking on Education System of Bangladesh in the 21st Century

The Daily Star and Campaign for Popular Education (CAMPE) jointly organized a table-talk on “Ethics and Values in Education” on December

43 Efficacy of Capitalism in The 21St Century towards Pursuit of Happiness and Prosperity: Takeaways for Bangladesh from Malaysia and China

28, 2017. Professor Syeda Tahmina Akhter, of University of Dhaka opined that charity begins at home. She also added the parents had to implant moral values in children from the commencement of education process. They must learn to take charge instead of blaming the government or politician.

Figure 15: Round Table of the Daily Star on “Ethics and Values in Education”

Source: The Daily Star, January 20, 2018. Available at: https://www. thedailystar.net/round-tables/ethics-and-values-education-1522384.

Leadership: Both in Understanding and Acquisition of Qualities

Prosperity and happiness are largely planning and commitment of the quality leaders. They need both clear understanding and right skill for leadership. Some of the qualities of leaders are described below:

Empathy and Self-Awareness. A ladder must understand others andhe/ she has to takeactive interest in their concerns. Being honestly sensitive to the responsibilities, emotions, and future needs, a leader should motivate and advise them whom he/she leads (Khaled, 2019, Lecture titled Emotional Intelligence in Leadership).

44 Figure 16: Empathy and Self-Awareness: A Leader’s Motivation Tool

Source: Social Media and Open Sources

Creation of a New Ministry Namely “Ministry of Happiness.” Scholars like Professor Rehman Sobhan, Dr Mashiur Rahman and Anu Mohammad opine to study the happiness model of Bhutan which was adopted since 2008. Bhutan believes in Gross National Happiness-GNH instead of GDP. Because, they believe this philosophy would keep the people tension free, positive and honest. To reap sustainable result on it, “Ministry of Happiness” like Bhutan may be introduced in Bangladesh. Keeping all ministers in the advisory committee, HPM of Bangladesh may be the minister of this new ministry so that it can function effectively. The rationale of this new ministry is to make a balance between threat to national security of Bangladesh due to its growing prosperity and inequality in the society. Of course, inclusion of new ministry and making the HPM in charge of that sparked a debate. Because, HPM now takes care of Ministry of Defence and Ministry of Energy in addition to her premiership. Some of the scholars viewed that basing on the global instances, HPM may delegate some of the ministries to others. The new ministry is time worthy for Bangladesh in present socio-politico environment. However, for all these we need more research.

45 Efficacy of Capitalism in The 21St Century towards Pursuit of Happiness and Prosperity: Takeaways for Bangladesh from Malaysia and China

Recommendations and Conclusion

Capitalism can maximize business anywhere in the world through competence. Capitalism need democracy and neo-liberal environment to sustain and flourish. In reality with the passage of time it has turn into “Crony Capitalism.” Capitalists want government should merely act as night-guard and pose no control. They also make nexus in exchange of money and create win-win situation whenever possible. Study finds that those are effective tools to the TCC for their progress, yet it causes serious immorality and gradual inequality in the societies. Such trend is very dangerous for the achievement of happiness and prosperity in real terms. However, some scholars do not blame Capitalism for above mentioned issues, rather they term “Capitalism as Scapegoat”.

Study finds that diverse Malaysian societies are value based, yet technology driven. On the other hand, in China, fine mixture of “Socialists’ and Capitalists’ Economy” ensures both service to the people and maintain government’s control over private entrepreneurs. Huge economic growth, mega projects have resulted into inequalities, corruption and social disintegration in Bangladesh. To ensure happiness, we need to establish trust, peace, eradicate poverty and hunger from the society. We need “Whole of Government Approach” to bring happiness in the society. In doing that research finds that anew ministry namely “Ministry of Happiness” may be established for Bangladesh where the HPM may be in charge of it. If so, all ministers spontaneously will play their roles for happiness. Most of the scholars view that introduction of a new ministry like Bhutan is time worthy and a space may be created by leaving some of the existing responsibilities of her to others. However, the issue needs a further research.

In Bangladesh, approximately 86% people are Muslims. Islam is a religion of peace, sacrifice and tranquility. The strength of the Muslim societies lie on family values, sacrifice through Charity (Zakat) and so on. On the contrary Capitalism is a self-seeking system. In Malaysia, there are enough

46 space for 61.3% Muslims to pursue religious norms in banking system through “Sharia Bank.” Here, the Malaysian model may be studied before adoption. In the long run it may also contribute in growing tendency of sacrifice among the investors and may help to eradicate poverty in Bangladesh.

In view of the above discussion, following are the recommendations of this research:

• Bangladesh should immediately review the education policy, quality of education, specially the primary education and put sincere efforts on the system.

• Bangladesh should establish a new ministry namely “Ministry of Happiness” where HPM may be the minister of it.

• To identify and utilize prudent leaders for its policy making, enhancing prosperity and building happy society, Bangladesh should carry out deliberate research.

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23. Malaysians are Happier than Before. [online]. p.1. Available at: https:// www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2018/03/16/survey-malaysians- happier-than-before/ [Accessed 08 June 2019].

49 Efficacy of Capitalism in The 21St Century towards Pursuit of Happiness and Prosperity: Takeaways for Bangladesh from Malaysia and China

Author

Brigadier General Abdullah Al Mamun, SPP, ndc, psc, G was born at Tangail and studied in Mirzapur Cadet College. He was commissioned in the Corps of Artillery on 21 December 1990. Besides his regimental appointments, he commanded two Artillery Regiments. He served as both operational, training and administrative staff officer in the Army Headquarters, two Artillery Brigades and in Logistic Area. He was a distinguished instructor in the Special Warfare Wing of the School of Infantry and Tactics. He was also the Chief Instructor in School of Artillery. He commanded an Artillery Brigade. He is a graduate from Defence Services Command and Staff College, Mirpur, Bangladesh and Command Academy, Langfang, China. He attended number of courses at home and abroad including Army Staff Course (Bangladesh), Artillery Battalion Commanders’ Course (China), Public Administration Course (Vietnam) and Professional Course/ Training visits China and Malaysia. He has completed his PhD (Part-1) on Security and Media from Jahangir Nagar University, Bangladesh. He has obtained Masters in Defence Studies (MDS) from National University, Bangladesh; Masters of Science - Technical (MSc-Technical) Bangladesh University of Professionals. He has served twice in the UN missions in DR Congo (MONUC and MONUSCO) as Military Analyst and Chief Operations Officer respectively. He has published a book titled ‘Soldiering and No War after 2040’ in 2013. Some articles authored by him are also available in China daily, The Daily Star, and Bangladesh Army Journals. Presently he is serving as Commandant of Border Guard Bangladesh Training Centre and College.

Email: [email protected]

50 ONLINE RADICALISATION AMONG THE YOUTHS IN BANGLADESH: EFFECTS ON NATIONAL SECURITY AND WAY FORWARD

Brigadier General Md Masudur Rahman, ndc, psc

Introduction

Radicalisation, which mostly leads to extremism, violence and then to terrorism, creates a significant threat to societies across the globe and Bangladesh is no exception to that. “Radicalisation is a process involving an individual or group through sources, contents and means, whereby they are indoctrinated to a set of beliefs that support acts of serious violence and terrorism, that can be manifested in one’s behaviour and attitudes” (Rahimullah, S. L, 2013). With the acceleration of digitalisation and globalisation, the Online Radicalisation (OR) has gained different dimensions and pathways. The matter has grown complex because of the proliferation in the use of digital devices, violence-inciting websites, channels and blogs in social media, secret messaging techniques, and various software including different methods and strategies by the radicals, extremists and mastermind terrorist(s) through ICT means. Mastermind extremists and terrorists utilize the new ICT tools to communicate among them, to organize themselves and to sell their ideologies for attaining their objectives. Potentially extremist groups today, are also in a position to sell their narratives/stories, intentions and objectives unfiltered on the web, and can communicate with each other very quickly and effectively, even much beyond national borders. This is how the youths across the globe, who are always inquisitive to learn, become indoctrinated by the mastermind extremists/terrorists. The resultant effect of OR causes extremist mind-set among the youths and aids militancy and violence. Bangladesh – a country with high density of population is very vulnerable to radicalisation, much of which may be through the online process though Honourable Prime

51 Online Radicalisation among the Youths in Bangladesh: Effects on National Security and Way Forward

Minister (HPM) Sheikh Hasina has clearly outlined ‘Zero Tolerance’ policy guide on terrorism.

Problem Statement

Bangladesh has embraced the digital technologies including the digitization of all its sectors with highest priority thus increased the internet connectivity within and beyond. While the positive impacts accelerated the development and facilitated the people throughout the country, the negative impacts like OR, violent extremism (VE) and terrorism have also affected the country adversely. The issue of OR is a great concern which can affect the promising youth sector of the country and will ultimately affect the future of Bangladesh. This is likely to affect the national security and development of Bangladesh as well. Bangladesh is yet to develop specific strategies to tackle OR which is the official guide for addressing such issue. The country has also not yet developed detailed de-radicalisation procedures, schemes and infrastructures. As such, it is important to conduct appropriate research/study about the present state of OR among the youths and its resultant militancy in Bangladesh, with a view to ascertaining their effects on Bangladesh’s national security.

Objectives of the Study

Following are the objectives of this study:

• To develop an overview of digitalisation in Bangladesh (background study). • To identify the pattern and extent of expansion in the use of online / digital communication among the youth in Bangladesh including actors/drivers and reasons of ORY in Bangladesh. • To investigate the process ‘how the youths of Bangladesh are getting radicalised using online resources/content (both home-grown and transnational)’.

52 • To investigate and analyse the linkage between the increased use of online / digital resources by the radicals and occurrence of violent militancy in Bangladesh. • To study if the ‘CR and de-radicalisation efforts and strategies of Bangladesh’ is effective enough or not to prevent OR without impinging the citizen’s access to information. • To study the ultimate effects of ORY and subsequent militancy on Bangladesh’s national security. • To suggest a way forward for the national security of Bangladesh against OR and militancy.

Significance of the Study

The issue of ORY in Bangladesh is a very pertinent aspect for study. Since we have not yet developed a comprehensive strategy like the White Papers of the western countries like the USA, UK and Germany to tackle the issue of OR, However, to deal with the issue of ORY and subsequent militancy, we need to develop an institutionalised and comprehensive strategy and delineate clear-cut policy guides. To do that, the need for conducting research on such phenomenon is of utmost importance, which can help us to develop a detailed understanding of the problem and thus we may work out the ‘way forward’. Moreover, we require to undertake research on ORY in Bangladesh for aiding its policy outcome and development of effective strategies, knowledge enhancement, resolving controversies and to guide research audiences.

Review of Literatures

Most of the literatures available in the open source internet are written by the western writers where hate culture is loudly pronounced under the shadow of conspiring thoughts. Bangladesh perspective on ORY also seems guided by the feelings of either hate culture or by writers from other religion who blames Islam significantly.

53 Online Radicalisation among the Youths in Bangladesh: Effects on National Security and Way Forward

According to Matt Lovegrove, “increasingly, the internet is being used by people who wish to share views and opinions. When this is done by an extremist - someone who holds extreme political, ideological and/or religious views and who may promote illegal or violent action – in a way designed to cause those views to be adopted by others, this is defined as OR (Lovegrove, 2018)”.

Raffaello Pantucci opines and argues that “there are a host of scholarly articles, which ascribe a role to the internet in promoting OR. Those studies suggest that the internet acts as an accelerant and has broken the traditional barriers to radicalise individuals” (Pantucci, 2011). In this regard, Gabriel Weimann’s Terror on the Internet: The New Arena, The New Challenges counts the number of websites of terrorist groups and reviews their contents. He found, by the end of 1999, almost all terrorist groups had established their online presence. Studies carried out by The United States Army War College suggest that there is a correlation between extremists’ websites and online propaganda, and rapid OR (Matt Armstrong, 2014).

Peter Neumann, the Director of the International Centre for the Study of Radicalization, in his research, points out that “the internet allows terrorists to reach those individuals who would not have been accessible in any other way. Approaches aimed at restricting freedom of speech and removing content from the internet are not only the least desirable, they are also the least effective. Instead, government should play a more energetic role in reducing the demand for radicalization and violent extremist messages - for example, by encouraging civic challenges to extremist narratives and by promoting awareness and education of young people” (Neumann, 2013).

In Bangladesh, presence of OR has been indicated by many authors. Tanbir Uddin Arman, in his article in The Bangladesh Today, argues that “globalisation and resultant revolution in communication technologies speed up the course of OR by providing cutting-edge through social networking tools such as Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, My Space, Google+ etc”. Radicals/extremists are now increasingly making use of

54 new media technologies in order to spread their radical ideas, communicate within themselves, carry out violent activities, thus achieving their own political objectives (Arman, 2015). The second wave consists of new and technologically advanced militant radical groups such as Hizbut Tahrir (HT), Hizbut Tawhid and Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT). These proscribed groups are playing a pivotal role in propagating the ‘global jihadist ideology in the local language’ through online sources (Sobhan, 2015).

Mohammed Zahid Akhter also argues in his article titled “Religious Education as a Tool for Countering Extremism: Rethinking Education Policy of Bangladesh” that there is a need for appropriate religious education of our youths, and expresses his concern – “extremist groups are capturing the young minds through misinterpretation of religious ideologies, and gradually motivating them towards terrorism. Along with madrasa students, they are also targeting the vulnerable youth groups of public and private universities, colleges, and schools.” Therefore, he strongly suggests that “leaving aside hard power approach, as is practiced by the law enforcement agencies (LEAs), we should embrace the role of education as an effective soft power tool as it can both propagate and counter extremist ideologies” (Akhter, 2017).

A survey conducted by Bangladesh Enterprise Institute (BEI) reveals that the “recent trend of radicalisation in Bangladesh is mostly associated with religious radicalisation and through online linkage”. The author of the institute also asserts that “among the various actors that can play a crucial role in Counter Radicalisation (CR), the role of education will be of critical importance. In recent years, the role of education in CR has gained prominence among policymakers and practitioners. As a matter of fact, education can act as an early intervention against any violent extremist tendencies, hence permitting an early and effective counterstrategy” (Sobhan, 2015).

55 Online Radicalisation among the Youths in Bangladesh: Effects on National Security and Way Forward

Ines Von Behr, a senior analyst at RAND Europe, asserts that these kinds of online materials have broadened the scope to reach any people, and their appealing contents create more chance to implant radical ideas among the individuals. (Ines von Behr, 2103).

Methodology

The aspect of OR is a complex matter and therefore merits careful approach for data collection, collation and analysis. For the purpose of this study, both primary and secondary data have been utilised. The primary data are very difficult to come by. However, attempts have been made to access limited scale primary information along with witnessing interview process of the concerned radicals for gaining an in-depth understanding of the problem. Three professors who are well-known as expert think-tanks, ten military and police officers who are expert officials in this field and four family members of the affected phenomenon have been consulted in details to develop better understandings and cross-checking of data related to OR. The study is also based on the content analysis of available/ accessible secondary information derived from various sources like online and internet publications, e-books, international conference papers, newsletters, research reports, newspapers articles, books, magazines, journal articles, and documents from intelligence organizations. The secondary data have been cross-checked through in-depth semi-structured interview (ISSI) of key informant persons (KIPs), officials and experts for acceptance, validation and generalization.

Results/Findings

There are various ways and means to exploit the youth sector (both male and female) for OR. The first way, is to conduct planned recruiting via online medium and directing them to turn into sympathisers and then convert them to radicals with a view to conducting/creating Violent Extremism (VE) and terrorism. Another popular way is to spread narratives of hate

56 and violence over the internet. This study provides comprehensive idea about the complexities of online communication, metamorphosis of radicalisation, why and how the youths are being radicalised including the actors/drivers and norms/patterns of ORY in Bangladesh.

Internet World and Online Communication

There are three types of web that exist in the internet information world: the surface web, the deep web and the dark web. Surface web is the portion of the World Wide Web (www) that is readily available to the general public and searchable with standard web search engines. Deep web is part of the World Wide Web whose contents are hidden behind HTTP forms and protected by a pay-wall. Dark web pages are hosted anonymously; contents are mostly encrypted and need special software to access the ‘overlay networks’ (Varma, 2018). The Dark Web was invented for the purpose of US Navy but now is used as the black market of internet and is the host of most illegal activities in the network based world. The Onion Router (TOR) is the most popular software which provides access to dark web and the use of crypto currencies like Bitcoin, Litecoin, Zcash, Neo, etc. have added complexities in the dark web environment.

Figure 1: The Surface Web, Deep Web and the Dark Web

Source: CISO platform (Y R Chandra Shekhar Varma), 2018

57 Online Radicalisation among the Youths in Bangladesh: Effects on National Security and Way Forward

Digitalisation and Realities of Network Based Activity in Bangladesh

Bangladesh has seen a sharp rise in the field of digital and network based technology due to keen interest undertaken by present government to develop Bangladesh digitally with the slogan of “Digital Bangladesh”. According to Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission (BTRC), “the number of internet users rocketed up from 30.48 million in 2013 to 93.70 million at the end of April, 2019” (BTRC, 2019). In Bangladesh at present, 99 % of the total population and 95% of the geographical area (including Chattogram Hill Tracts) have been brought under mobile telecommunication service and network coverage. According to a report published by Hype on Digital Bangladesh, 55% population are internet users while 20% (34 million) of the total population are active social media users. In another study, it has been found that 60% of the population in Bangladesh have internet-enabled handsets (age 15- 65) (Hussain S. S., 2019). As of 2019, there were 5, 73,200 broadband internet users, and 60,000 were WiMAX users (BTRC, 2019).

Figure 2: Digital Statistical Indicators in Bangladesh

Source: Hype-Digital in Bangladesh Report, 2019

58 Expansion in the Use of Network Based Communication and Its Effect on Youths of Bangladesh

Facebook and messenger are extensively used by the youths in Bangladesh. As of January 2019, the Facebook users in Bangladesh were 3,37,13,000 and among them, the majority were men (73.8%) and particularly, people having age between 18 to 24 were the largest user group (1,56,00,000). However, IMO, WhatsApp and Viber have gained popularity in the recent times. Among the smart phone users, 61%, 42% and 32% use WhatsApp, Viber and IMO respectively and most of them are the youths (Husain, 2015). Such phenomenon has made Bangladeshi youth tech savvy with increased resilience, which makes the radical recruiters’ job easier to infiltrate into the net and allure promising youths towards their intended direction. Research has also found that screen-based and net-work based activities create psychological difficulties such as depression, anxieties, attention-deficit, hate-culture, desire to do something great and supreme, loneliness and being away from family and others occurring among the teenagers in Bangladesh (Asduzzaman Khan, 2018). These youths tend to remain away from physical activities, games and sports and they are very vulnerable to OR.

Figure 3: Facebook Users in Bangladesh- January 2019

Source: NapoleonCat, 2019

59 Online Radicalisation among the Youths in Bangladesh: Effects on National Security and Way Forward

Entry of Educated Elite Youths into Radicalisation through Online Medium

While countrywide bomb blasts in 2005 was mostly aimed at publicizing the presence of religious minded madrasa educated lots, attack at ‘Holey Artisan Restaurant’ of Gulshan marked its transformation to a ruthless killing entity who were radicalised through network-based communication. A deeper analysis reveals that all the radicalised youths involved in the attack were in their late teens or early 20s; wealthy and elites, having attended top private schools and universities of both home and abroad. Most of them were from privileged background, educated with western curricula. At least, one was known to be fun-loving and had been keen on sports. To find out the reasons as to why youths were getting involved with extremism, 52.1% responded that youths could be convinced by others very easily (RAB HQ, 2016).

Figure 4: Reasons for Youths to Involve in Online Radicalisation

Source: Research Report by RAB, 2016

Increased Capability in Using Technology

With the passage of time, the radicals and their targets have developed innovative narratives and utilised social media for propagating their ideologies and practices (BEI, 2016). Despite lower percentage of urbanization in comparison to world standard, Bangladesh excels in terms of internet user and mobile subscriptions. This ever-growing online network in Bangladesh supports the radical masterminds to extend their reach to every corner of the society.

60 Figure 5: World’s Internet & Social Media Users (%Total Population)

Source: Global Digital Snapshot, 2017

In another survey conducted by Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS), 61% of the respondents opined that ‘Internet is the most powerful tool to motivate the young population towards radicalisation’ and 29% through group/individual contact (BIPSS, 2017).

Figure 6: Medium that Motivate Youths for Radicalization

Source: Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS), 2017

Further survey by BIPSS shows that the radicalisation through the use of internet and online content are done by using mostly Facebook and its link whereas Jihadi blogs/websites are mentioned by 26% and ideological blogs/websites are mentioned by 24%. (BIPSS, 2017).

61 Online Radicalisation among the Youths in Bangladesh: Effects on National Security and Way Forward

Figure 7: Use of Internet for Radicalization

Source: Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS), 2017

Reasons for Choosing Youths as Subjects for Online Radicalisation

The advantages in targeting the youth for radicalisation are many. Youths are relatively more susceptible to online radicalisation as they can easily be attracted and lured by the ideological, religious, emotive and fantasy appeals. Youths tend to venture for search for the meaning of life, thus fall prey to the evil webs of radical recruiters who apparently display better pathways. In another perspective, “youths are likely to provide better success at tactical level as they do not have any prior police records. Recruitment of youths also confirms a cadre of educated and tech savvy future leaders that are important for ensuring continuity. They garner more support from like-minded individuals and groups and carry out radical activities ranging from selection, indoctrination and recruitment to training, financing, planning and execution of their programs” (Sobhan, 2016).

Causes of ORY in Bangladesh

Experts in the field of ORY and CR have identified various causes and factors, which can influence a youth(s)/group(s) to be radicalised through online means. While the causes are extensive, some of the prominent ones are:

62 • Causes resulting from international relations. • Poor integration of human resources (youths) in the society. • Proliferation of internet use and digital technologies. • Perceived injustice and western over dominance in the Muslim countries. • Hate-speech/incite generated/propagated by radical masterminds. • Identity troubles and social exclusion of certain individual or groups. • Lack of parental and social care and monitoring. • Inadequate social apparatus for monitoring the subjects and analysing online content.

Factors contributing to ORY in Bangladesh are:

Personal Family based Motivational Motivational factors factors factors factors • Loneliness • Family • Need for • Revenge and rise troubles belonging to against the in online • Separation a group western addiction from the • Excitement societies • Lack of family • Radicals as • Hate culture / knowledge • Negative role model incitement and idea about • Shortcut way • Fighting as a wisdom the family to Heaven Jihadist • Seeking by others (spiritual • Establishment answers • Unhealthy misguidance) of Caliphate for life relation • Islam has • Poverty of parents been made impure by the present government.

Levels/Stages of ORY

Research suggests that individuals who are/have become subject to OR, generally passes through four stages to become a complete radicalised person (Ahsan, 2019). 63 Online Radicalisation among the Youths in Bangladesh: Effects on National Security and Way Forward

Figure 8: Levels of ORY

ation of Radicalis Level

However, through the overall research process, investigation and own analysis, a “Five Level Model” approach has been developed for online radicalisation.

Actors and Drivers of ORY in Bangladesh

The actors and drivers of ORY in Bangladesh are (as found through the research and investigation):

• A feeling that Muslims, throughout the world, are under western aggression and Islam is under serious attack. Thus, waging perceived Jihad is the call of the day.

• Lack of socio-economic opportunities in the country and there are disparities in the distribution of wealth and facilities in the civil society.

• There is a sense of growing inequality between the “rich and poor” and “the powerful and powerless” segments of the society.

• Development of frustration resulting from socio-economic condition and rampant corruptions.

64 Discussion

For a successful campaign against ORY in Bangladesh, we need carefully crafted strategy based Counter Radicalisation (CR) policy. Through this study, endeavour has been made to look at briefly on various models/ principles of CR. Thereafter, the discussion would focus on Bangladesh perspective of de-radicalisation and CR, and identify areas for improvements.

CR and De-radicalisation: Bangladesh Perspective

One of the primary drawbacks in Bangladesh’s CR measures is its overdependence on hard power approaches against the proliferation of radical content spread over the internet. These include legal actions of tracing the individual for apprehension and putting them for trial, radical content removing, and filtering or blocking websites which are available in the open web. The authorities are not able to tackle the complexities that exist in the deep and dark web, where many of the expert radical extremists operate. This also allows them to reach their target groups easily with confidence, although these can be traced with the help of the technologies of some developed countries like USA, UK, Israel and Germany.

Sterilizing the online environment, account takedown, online follow- up and apprehension of hard core radicals, online content blocking and selling government narratives are few steps of CR campaign in Bangladesh. The visible CR and de-radicalisation efforts and initiatives related to OR are limited to some Government and NGOs activities, and television advertisements. Besides, there are many research institutes like Bangladesh Enterprise Institute (BEI), BIPSS, BIISS and similar others who are conducting regular studies on this complex subject. It is realised by all that this is a very complex phenomenon and the support from all sectors of the globe are very essential. Therefore, it is imperative to engage the elites of the societies, concerned ministries and divisions/institutions,

65 Online Radicalisation among the Youths in Bangladesh: Effects on National Security and Way Forward religious leaders, social workers, computer and cyber experts, medial members, political elites, and similar others to develop a holistic approach which is a combination of hard power and soft power approaches. This will enable whole of governmental approach coupled with community engagement (along with local and religious leaders), proper education, women’s participation, engagement of cyber experts and cultural and religious harmony. The figure below is a thematic diagram for CR model:

Figure 9: Comprehensive Approach for Counter Radicalisation

Community Engagements Proper Women’s Education Participation

Enhance Information Whole Sharing & ICT Governmental Engagement engagements Cultural harmony

Source: Author’s Construct

Limitations and Areas for Improvement in Bangladesh’s CR Model

There are certain areas where Bangladesh can improve which has been drawn from expert interviews and by comparing Bangladesh model with others ones. The grey areas are:

• Over emphasis on the hard measures leading to development of dislike by the common mass and youths. • Inability to operate freely in the deep web and shortage of technical capabilities to safeguard the cyber space.

66 • There is no apex organisation to coordinate the actions of security forces, cyber experts and LEAs. LEAs and security forces also possess limited capability to operate in the cyber-domain. • Media elements, religious leaders, researchers, social workers community leaders are not meaningfully engaged in the counter radicalisation efforts. • Engagement with international partners is relatively lesser. • Absence of officially pronounced CR and de-radicalisation schemes/ programme due to lack of comprehensive policy.

Effects of Online Radicalisation on National Security-A Dynamic Challenge

The mastermind radicals often initially draw sympathy of their targets along the line of religion in open web. However, as the radicals reach further height in their motivation, radicalised youths are then drawn in the deep web by their recruiters where they have been identified to use highly encrypted software. The hate speech/incitement and extremist narratives launched over the online domain often easily find ground in the mind of youths. It has a legal loophole i.e. legal definition of incite or hate speech, violent narratives, etc. which clearly prohibits, in many cases, to carry out legal cases against radicals/terrorists promulgating them for OR. Furthermore, the problem of inability of the law enforcement agencies to respond to hate speech and extremist narratives creates a major gap in responding to OR of radical militancy.

Policing OR has become relatively more effective over the period of time. Account takedown and content blocking have eliminated most public radical sites. This was possible through joint military and police engagement with our international partners. Success of narratives like oppression of Muslims, so-called Jihadi success and similar others have been dropped down to 50 percent over last few years. The emerging narratives by the radicals are likely to be along the line of four million

67 Online Radicalisation among the Youths in Bangladesh: Effects on National Security and Way Forward

Muslims in Assam being deprived of their citizenship and the escalating conflicts and sufferings in Kashmir (Anam, 2019). These narratives may attract the young generation of our country to be radicalised and may lead them to conduct violent activities and terrorism which may ultimately pose a threat to our national security.

The “al-Adnani” phenomena might affect Bangladesh as well. The lectures of Abu Mohammad al-Adnani al-Shami, who was the responsible leader for conducting ISIS/ISIL operations in Syria, are very critical for the future of Bangladesh. Although he promoted Al-Qaeda narratives in the past, his narratives currently refrain from calling for Jihad or sharing radical narratives and contents openly. Instead, his narratives prefer to radicalise his audience by advocating for an Islamic political and education system. His videos are shared in the online platforms which are likely to drift away youths of various stages and might affect our national security.

Disinformation has also emerged as a powerful tool for radical extreme actors to influence public sentiment, target moderate voices, and incite of violence. As sharing explicit radical and extreme narratives has become riskier for the radical extreme actors due to strong policing of internet, posting disinformation allows extreme actors to disseminate their message without triggering takedown by the LEAs and social media platforms. Radical extreme actors in Bangladeshi social media often recycle and doctor photographs and videos depicting torture and casualties in terrorist attack to spread perception of widespread Muslim success including exaggeration of their achievements. All these are targeted against the democratic system of Bangladesh and ultimately endanger national security.

Way Forward and Recommendations Requirement of Countering the Radical Narratives

For a successful campaign of CR in online medium, there is a strong requirement of countering the radical narratives. The CR campaign must

68 be proactive to challenge the intellectual capabilities of the radicals and act promptly. There must be a dedicated organisation which should carryout constant research and development, and develop counter narratives which can offset the radical narratives.

Suggested Counter Radicalisation Policy/Strategy Approaches for Bangladesh

CR calls for a comprehensive and adaptive national policy and strategy for Bangladesh. In order to be result-oriented and effective, the CR policy for Bangladesh may have the following approaches and components:

• Whole of Government Approach. • Good Governance Approach. • Different Ideology Approach. • Government-Community Engagement Approach. • Whole of Society Approach. • Legal Approach.

Whole of Government Approach

Whole of Government approach would require efforts to integrate the collaborative efforts of all the relevant ministries, departments and agencies of the Government of Bangladesh (GOB) and NGOs to attain unified and synchronized effort towards the common goals. This approach seeks to achieve followings:

• Inter-ministerial and inter-agency partnership and cooperation. • A coordination committee for responding to security emergency (a separate cabinet committee or under PMO directly). • Interoperability of information and information sharing. • Enhance and improve intervention capabilities of the law enforcement agencies.

69 Online Radicalisation among the Youths in Bangladesh: Effects on National Security and Way Forward

• Capacity-building and training for the public officials and the law and intelligence agencies. • Radicalisation threat assessment centre. • Strategy and comprehensive action plan.

Good Governance Approach

Extremists often claim that man-made rules and governance systems are bound to fail and that only the Shariah-based rule can ensure peace, happiness, appropriate education and spiritual development. This claim may create an appeal to certain people who feels that the glitches relating to governance have affected their lives. Therefore, good governance must be ensured to protect people from the appeal of extremist narratives, agendas and propaganda. This approach should aim to achieve followings:

• Addressing the grievances and deprivation of youth from different economic layers of society. • Addressing economic security and access to employment for better livelihoods. • Addressing the corruption issue that engenders grievance. • Addressing the socioeconomic disparities to mitigate frustration and alienation. • Skill development, technical and vocational education and training, and entrepreneurship. • Economic support for strengthening the democratic institutions.

Different Ideology Approach

Different ideology approach should occupy another major element in CR policy and strategy guide for Bangladesh. This comprises mostly online communication efforts which directly or indirectly contest extremist narratives, ideology and propaganda in different forms through launching

70 alternative narratives via online communication and through multiple channels of the media. This approach should seek to achieve followings:

• Develop different (alternative) ideologies, counter narratives and messages.

• Continuously sell these ideologies to the targeted audience.

• Include government sponsored religious leaders (Imams) and Islamic scholars to preach correct practices of the religion.

• Raise confidence and trust in favour of the elected government and on the governmental system.

• Raising awareness regarding the causes and process of radicalism.

• Online space for CR - online platforms should be encouraged for religious leaders, Imams and scholars to challenge radical theology.

• Develop media-CR interlinks – this is very important step for CR.

Government-Community Engagement Approach

The society and the state should work in synchronisation harnessing all activities to eradicate radicalisation. This is an all-encompassing process that should include a wide array of interactions between community actors and government agencies. This approach would seek to achieve followings:

• Achieve collaboration with the social organisations and institutions.

• Develop community outreach and partnership.

• Ensure sustainable collaboration between the communities and the government organisations.

• De-radicalisation programmes and engagement with the required individuals.

71 Online Radicalisation among the Youths in Bangladesh: Effects on National Security and Way Forward

Whole of Society Approach

The whole of society approach represents social organisations and agencies employed across the society to attain a shared/common goal and an integrated societal response against radicalisation. These approaches can be formal and informal linking many actors/stakeholders including teachers, religious leaders, community organisations and leaders, civil society and NGO activists, youth leaders, youth organizations, private sector representatives, voluntary and charity organizations, the media, and similar others. This approach would seek to achieve followings:

• Conserving family values and social capital and furthering women empowerment. • Engagement and empowerment of communities. • Educational and community institutions’ flourishing. • Social and democratic institutions to facilitate promotion of gender equality. • NGOs and private sector collaboration to bring social justice. • Social platforms to facilitate dialogues and informed discussions.

Legal Approach

Law of the land provides essential foundation for the protection of human rights and guarantee legal measures for CR. A suitable compendium of legal measures is the basis for enforcement and redressing the matters relating to radicalisation leading to extremism and terrorism. The definitions of hate speech/incitement, conspiracy, and other related terms need careful approach avoid confusion so that the radicals and their masterminds cannot escape with the plea of lack of clarity of the law. This might require a range of measures undertaken including reformation and amendment of the existing laws and to justice delivery which may include:

72 • Strict enforcement of law including capacity building of the judges and prosecutors. • Amend laws to expedite the process of trial faster. • Improving the quality of the public prosecutors. • Clarify certain definition like hate speech/incitement, conspiracy and other related terms.

Suggested De-Radicalisation Scheme

GOB has outlined zero tolerance to terrorism, yet it has not clarified its position about de-radicalisation. The fallouts usually occurred due to lack of proper and systemic social functioning. Excluding a bulk from the society doesn’t seem to be a practicable solution. In Bangladesh, where there is no officially accepted and generally perused de-radicalisation program, the notion that ‘all radicals are terrorists’ seems to be a faulty one. To stop youths, who are in the process of being radicalised, the authority and society must engage themselves at an early stage, so that these youths don’t turn into terrorists.

The sequential steps of declaring/deciding disengagement, attaining behavioural disengagement from radical thoughts and acts, disengagement from the organisation (who already partially engaged through online sources), detailed process of de-radicalisation and finally re-integration into the society should be followed in a methodical and exclusively comprehensive manner. Some ways describing the probable approach for de-radicalisation programme are given below:

• Develop one Central De-Radicalisation Organisation (CDRO), which should operate under the overarching umbrella of national effort to curb terrorism, radicalisation and violent extremism. The CDRO must work for the achievement of de-radicalisation aims and goals set by GOB. It should have dedicated research wing which should work taking all stakeholders on-board.

73 Online Radicalisation among the Youths in Bangladesh: Effects on National Security and Way Forward

• Develop one dedicated de-radicalisation complex in each division of Bangladesh working under the guidance of CDRO. These may be developed like confined boarding schools/centres to correct radical youths’ behavioural change, alter their extreme (religious) beliefs and gradually convert them into a liberal person. Here, assistance of various experts including psychologists would be of utmost importance.

• Ensure regular monitoring and progress check of the youths understudy.

Recommendations

For a successful CT and CR campaign in Bangladesh, following steps may be undertaken:

• Bangladesh should develop and institutionalise a permanent National Counter Terrorism & Counter Radicalisation Council (NCT&CRC) along with its secretariat with all experts, officials and develop all infrastructures for effective functioning. This should directly function based on the directive of National Committee on Security Affairs (NCSA). Proposed structure of (NCT&CRC) is given below:

74 NCSA/NSC

NCT&CRC

NCT&CRC Inter-Agency/Ministerial Secretariat/Headquarters Coordination Wing

National CTO/Authority National National CDRO CCRO/Authority NCTO Secretariat/Headquarter CCRO Division Level s Secretariat/Headquarters DRO Operations Wing Operations Wing PER Wing Intelligence Wing Intelligence Wing Information Operations and Awareness Media Management Wing Information Operations and Building Wing Media Management Wing

CyberWing Training Cyber Wing &Education Wing Security Forces & Security Forces & LEA Wing Administrative LEA Wing Legal Wing Wing Legal Wing Progress Administrative & Monitoring Wing Administrative & Coordination Wing Coordination Wing R&D Wing R&D Wing Social Integration & Rehabilitation Wing Technical Wing Technical Wing Legend: PER Wing NCSA= National Committee for Security Affairs NSC= National Security Council Awareness Building NCT=National Counter Terrorism Wing CRC=Counter Radicalisation Council /Authority

Social Integration & CTO = Counter Terrorism Organisation Rehabilitation Wing PER Wing = Psychological, Educational and Religious Wing

• Develop and implement CR and De-radicalisation Policy and Strategy for Bangladesh for effective implementation.

• Establish a National Cyber Security Council/Authority (NCSC) which should be able to function effectively and handle the cyber related

75 Online Radicalisation among the Youths in Bangladesh: Effects on National Security and Way Forward

issues. This is necessary to counter all types of digital crimes including OR and ORY.

• Establish National Central Data Centre with adequate backup systems to operate and share data with other databases/centres within and beyond the country.

• Establish a Central Counter Radicalisation Organisation (CCRO) along with its full compliments to operate effectively and coordinate with global partners to tackle radicalisation and OR.

• Establish a Central De-Radicalisation Organisation (CDRO) with full compliments to operate effectively. The CCRO and CDRO should operate under NCT&CRC.

• Establishment of a Central Medial and Mass-communication Organisation/Authority.

• A brief yet comprehensive plan to defeat the menace of ORY in Bangladesh is given in Figure 10.

76 Figure 10: A Comprehensive Plan to Defeat the Components of ORY in Bangladesh

Reduction of Online Comprehensive Approach Content& Narratives for Demand Reduction

Radical and extremist through o Monitoring online narratives/content domain / cyber space introduced/produced regularly by radical persons in o Legal actions by LEAs cyber/online domain CR and de-radicalisation o Cyber security o operations policy & strategy (whole of Building awareness in Govt. approach, Whole of o society approach, Govt o theContent whole removal of the society Proliferations of Account takedown society approach…….) radical / extremist o Filtering online o Integrating parents, ideologies in online o space teachers, religious leaders, domain/internet community and legal o Strict monitoring and follow-ups workers o Launching Counter Narratives Cyberspace as an o Financing cyber o Integration of social & echo-chamber of security private Communities radical contents Filtering Reporting System o o Awareness building o Youth development Awareness o o programs through societies, Building in whole NGOs and GOB initiatives Target audience society Community-based Monitoring and o o programs reporting back Media and other key actors o o De-radicalisation Programs

An efficient and effective organization is required to coordinate, synchronise and implement GOB action plans (an overarching umbrella) 2.

Conclusion

The people of Bangladesh possess a tolerant mind-set on the issue of religion and enjoy constructive relations with practitioners of all faiths. With the passage of time, Bangladesh embraced the digital technologies in most of its sectors thus increased the internet connectivity within and beyond. While the positive impacts accelerated developments of the country and people, the negative impacts like OR and ORY have also affected adversely. Therefore, the issue of OR and ORY merit careful attention and Bangladesh should develop a carefully crafted and well-

77 Online Radicalisation among the Youths in Bangladesh: Effects on National Security and Way Forward documented CR policy and strategy for sustaining peace, national security and development.

References

1. Akhter, M. Z. (2017). Religious Education as a Tool for Countering Extremism: Rethinking Education Policy of Bangladesh. (P. A. Khan, Ed.) Dhaka, Bangladesh. 2. Alam, S. S. (2017). Jongi Domone Shamajik Uddog Kom. Dhaka: Daily Prothom Alo. 3. Arman, T. U. (2015). New Media, Digital Radicalization and Social Security, The Bangladesh Today. Retrieved March 11, 2019, from Tanbir Uddin Arman. 4. Asduzzaman Khan, R. U. (2018). Insufficient physical activity in combination with high screen time is associated with adolescents’ psychosocial difficulties. The Official Journal of the Royal Health Society of Tropical Medicine, Oxford University Press, 246-251. 5. BEI. (2014). The Role of the Media in Countering Radicalisation in Bangladesh. Retrieved June 30, 2019, from Bangladesh Enterprise Institute (BEI). 6. BEI. (2014). The Role of the Media in Countering Radicalization in Bangladesh. Dhaka: Bangladesh Enterprise Institute (BEI). 7. BEI. (2016). Towards Developing a Counter-Narrative to the Islamist Extremist Narrative in Bangladesh. Dhaka: Bangladesh Enterprise Institute (BEI). 8. BIPSS. (2017). Local Drivers and Dynamics of Youth Radicalization in Bangladesh. Dhaka: Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies (BIPSS) (S. A. Printers Ltd). 9. BIPSS. (2016). Cyber Radicalization: Challenges and Way Forward. Dhaka: Prothom Alo.

78 10. Brig Gen Sheikh Sarwar Hussain, D. C. (2019). Online Radicalisation of Youths in Bangladesh. (B. g. Rahman, Interviewer) 11. Commission, B. T. (2019). Bangladesh Telecommunication Regulatory Commission. Retrieved June 18, 2019. 12. Data Reportal. (2019). Data Reportal. Retrieved from Global Digital Insights: https://datareportal.com/digital-in-bangladesh 13. Husain, O. (2015). Tech in Asia. Retrieved June 26, 2019. 14. Ines von Behr, A. R. (2103). Radicalisation in the Digital Era (United Kingdom: RAND Corporation). Retrieved March 24, 2019. 15. ligioInformation, C. f. (2017). CRI. Retrieved from www.cri.org.bd: http://cri.org.bd/publication/digital-revolution/Bangladesh’s%20 Digital%20Revolution.pdf 16. Karim, A. T. (n.d.). Issue Brief, Vivekananda International Foundation. Retrieved March 24, 2019, from Ambassador Tariq Karim & Dr Madhumita Srivastava Balaji, Rising Trend of Relhttp://www.vifindia.org 17. Kashem, M. A. (2011). Understanding Religious Militancy and Terrorism in Bangladesh. Dhaka: ICA Bangladesh. 18. Lovegrove, M. (2018). Safeguarding Essentials, Online radicalization, Protecting young people from grooming, (Blog Story). 19. Matt Armstrong, S. P. (2014). Visual Propaganda and Extremism in the Online Environment (July 2014 ed.). (C. K. Dauber, Ed.) Carlisle: US Army War College Press. 20. National Security Preparedness Group. (2011). US NSPG Preventing Violent Radicalisation in America. Retrieved March 2019, from (Washington DC: Bipartisan Policy Center, June 2011). 21. Neumann, P. R. (2013). Options and Strategies for Countering Online Radicalization in the United States. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, Volume 36(6), 431-432. Retrieved March 21, 2019.

79 Online Radicalisation among the Youths in Bangladesh: Effects on National Security and Way Forward

22. News, A. (2019). Terrorist Attak at Srilanka. Doha: Aljajira Broadcasting. 23. Pantucci, R. (2011). Developments in Radicalisation, A Typology of Lone Wolves : Preliminary Analysis on Lone Islamist Terrorist. Retrieved March 24, 2019, from The International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation and Political Violence. 24. Peoples Republic of Bangladesh. (2016). Constitution of Bangladesh (18th Edition). Dhaka: Ministary of Law and Parliamentary Affairs. 25. Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) Forces Headquarters. (2016). Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) Forces RAB Forces Research Report on ‘Violent Extremism in Bangladesh: A Study on Youth Perception. Dhaka: Research and Development Wing, RAB Forces. 26. Reza, A. (2016). Perspective on terrorism. Retrieved May 20, 2019, from Vol. 10, No. 1 (2016). 27. Rahimullah, R. H. (2013). Understanding Violent Radicalization amongst Muslims: A Review of the Literature. Retrieved March 19, 2019, from Journal of Psychology & Behavioral Science. 28. Schlegel, L. (2018). Online-Radicalisation: Myth or Reality? Linda Schlegel, Online CONRAD ADENAUER STIFTUNG, Facts and Finding, Counter-Terrorism & Internal Security, 314 (September 2018). 29. Schmid, D. A. (2013). International Centre for Counter Terrorism - The Hague “Radicalisation, De-Radicalisation, Counter-Radicalisation: A Conceptual Discussion and Literature Review”. Retrieved February - March 2019. 30. Sobhan, F. (2014). The Role of the Media in Countering Radicalisation in Bangladesh. Dhaka, Bangladesh: Bangladesh Enterprize Institute. Retrieved June 2019. 31. Sobhan, F. (2015). The Role of Education in Countering Radicalization in Bangladesh. Dhaka, Bangladesh: Bangladesh Enterprise Institute. Retrieved March 2019.

80 32. Sobhan, F. (2016). Terrorism and Counter Terrorism: Bangladesh’s Perspective. NDC Journal, Vol. 1, No. 4, p. 69.

33. Varma, Y. R. (2018). ciso platform. Retrieved June 18, 2019, from ciso platform: https://www.cisoplatform.com/profiles/blogs/surface- web-deep-web-and-dark-web-are-they-different

Author

Brigadier General Md Masudur Rahman, ndc, psc was commissioned on 20 December 1991 with 25th BMA Long Course in the Corps of Infantry. Since commission, he has served in various staff, instructional and command appointments at different levels. His important staff appointments include Aide-de-Camp to General Officer Commanding; General Staff Officer Grade-II (Coordination) in General Staff Branch, Army Headquarters; Assistant Military Secretary, Military Secretary’s Branch, Army Headquarters; Colonel Staff in an Infantry Division and Colonel Staff of Welfare & Rehabilitation Directorate, Army Headquarters. He was an instructor at School of Infantry and Tactics. He has commanded an Infantry Battalion and a Composite Brigade. He participated in the United Nations Iraq-Kuwait Observation Mission and United Nations peacekeeping mission in Liberia. He also served in Chattogram Hill Tracts. He attended a number of courses both at home and abroad. He is a graduate of Defence Services Command and Staff College, Mirpur, Defence Academy of United Kingdom and of National Defence College, Mirpur. He obtained Master degrees from Kings College, London University, Bangladesh University of Professionals, National University of Bangladesh and American International University Bangladesh (AIUB). Presently, the author is serving as the Commander of an Infantry Brigade at Sheikh Hasina Cantonment.

Email: [email protected]

81 INTERNET OF THINGS FOR BANGLADESH: PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES

Brigadier General Md Nasim Parvez, ndc, afwc, psc

Technology is nothing. What’s important is that you have a faith in people, that they’re basically good and smart, and if you give them tools, they’ll do wonderful things with them.

-Steve Jobs

Introduction

The Internet of Things (IoT) is a new technology which can connect any device or object from any place and time to another device or person or any physical object. It has huge prospects in our social and economic lives. Nowadays IoT has proved to become as a popular emerging technology. Kevin Ashton is called the ‘Inventor of IoT’ since he first used the term in 1999 to describe a system where the Internet is connected to the physical world via ubiquitous sensors (Tim Cole, 2018). IoT is expected to connect billions of heterogeneous objects and going to impact the quality of human lives in many aspects.

Houlin Zhao, the Secretary General of International Telecommunication Union (ITU) has mentioned, “After more than a decade of discussion and anticipation, the IoT is now firmly on its way. Connecting things, as well as people, offers prospects of new ways of monitoring situations, learning and responding in real-time” (Howlin Zhao, 2016). In fact IoT is still at the early stage of its development, but it has already drawn attention by many due to its advantages and connectivity. The applications of the IoT are likely to solve our innumerable future challenges are limited only by our imagination. As per the IMF report of 2019, Bangladesh currently is the 41st largest economy as per GDP (Emma London, 2018). Bangladesh

82 is amongst the top 5 fastest growing economy in the world as per World Bank projection (Ibrahim Hossain Ovi, 2019). She has recently fulfilled the requirements of becoming the LMIC from LDC countries. After attaining the objectives of Vision 2021, Bangladesh is eyeing for Vision 2041 and DELTA Plan 2100. Honorable Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has said. “We have started preparing a plan over what and how much development we want Bangladesh to achieve from 2021 to 2041. Bangladesh will be a developed and prosperous country by 2041” (Dhaka Tribune, 2018). To achieve vision 2041 along with the developed country status for Bangladesh to remain competitive, to progress in socio-economic parameters, she needs to introduce emerging new technology IoT and its applications in agriculture, industry, manufacturing, education, healthcare, transportation, energy, smart cities etc. The smart applications of IoT would obviously assist Bangladesh to improve the lives of people in the socio-economic aspects and to achieve her ‘Vision 2041’ goals.

However, the prospects and opportunities of IoT, comes with many challenges: technological, societal, security, business model etc. Some of the properties of IoT like mobility, wireless sensors, embedded usage, etc can lead to serious security and privacy issues like compromise of personal and private data. On the other hand, the application of IoT would create connectivity, automation and big data which will create favorable environment for the automation of warehouse, farming, healthcare, education, retail etc. may cause many existing jobs to be redundant and higher percentage of unemployment. In view of above realities, some pertinent questions appear: what are the prospects and opportunities of IoT lies in front of Bangladesh for her development? What are the challenges for the adoption of IoT in Bangladesh? How best she can overcome these challenges to adopt IoT in Bangladesh? This paper fundamentally will make a humble effort to find the answers to these questions. While doing so, the focus will be limited to socio-economic developments: agriculture, manufacturing, education and healthcare, smart city, smart grid, smart governance including public utilities etc.

83 Internet of Things for Bangladesh: Prospects and Challenges

The paper is designed to address two groups of readers: first, for the general readers, it aims to provide generic understanding of the prospects and challenges of IoT in our socio-economic lives. Secondly, it is designed to address the policymakers who will directly or indirectly be contributing in the policy formulation on the national policy on IoT and national strategies for the successful adoption of IoT in Bangladesh.

Statement of the Problem. IoT is an important tool for improving the quality of lives of people. It is an enabler to the development and contributor to economic growth of the country. IoT based applications are being used in many countries for improving manufacturing, agriculture, healthcare, transportation, education delivery, services and utilities, mining, oil fields, building smart home, smart city, etc. Similarly, IoT is likely to have huge prospects, great opportunities and positive impacts for the socio-economic development of Bangladesh. However, it also has a number of challenges: IoT networks suffer from security risks of cyber-attacks, safeguarding of data and privacy of personal data. In addition, IoT devices, IoT platform and protocols are yet to determine internationally recognized standards and protocols for the network. Bangladesh hasn’t yet adopted national IoT policy or IoT strategy roadmap for the adoption of IoT applications. It is therefore imperative to identify the prospects and challenges of IoT and develop national IoT policy and national IoT strategies for adopting IoT in Bangladesh for her socio-economic development.

Literature Review

A list of related research works are studied in details and key concepts are derived from the literature review. The IETF defines IoT as, “The basic idea is that IoT will connect objects around us (electronic, electrical, non- electrical) to provide seamless communication and contextual services provided by them. Development of RFID tags, sensors, actuators, mobile phones make it possible to materialize IoT which interact and co-operate each other to make the service better and accessible anytime, from anywhere.” (IEEE Internet of Things, 2015)

84 The authors Ebraheim Alsaadi and Abdallah Tubaishat (2015), have conducted a study to assess the emergent challenges of IoT, due to DOS attacks, eavesdropping, node capture in the IoT infrastructure, and physical security of the sensors. They have concluded that, in the distributed form of architecture in IoT, attackers could hijack unsecured network devices converting them into bots to attack third parties (Falguni Jindal, Rishabh Jamar, Prathamesh Churi, 2018), have presented the future challenges of IoT, such as technical issues like connectivity, compatibility and longevity, standards, security, business challenges like investment, societal challenges like changing demands, new devices, expense, customer confidence and legal challenges like related regulations, procedures, policies etc.

Debasis Bandyopadhyay, Jaydip Sen (2013), suggests that IoT will require managing of networks that contain billons of heterogeneous things, and where a wide variety of software, middleware and hardware devices exists. Most of the IoT devices are vendor specific and requires a cohesive standard, which delivers their flawless assimilation and interoperable operations (Pir Amad Ali Shah, Masood Habib, Taimur Sajjad, Muhammad Umar, and Muhammad Banbar, 2017)

Ankita Priyadarshini (2013), mentioned that there will be intelligent applications for smarter homes and offices, smarter transportation systems, smarter hospitals, smarter enterprises and factories. Healthcare IoT can allow patients to spend more time interacting with their doctors, which can boost patient engagement and satisfaction (Rinu Gour, 2018).

IoT contributes in the agriculture sector by giving early information to the farmers about the soil condition, identify the best time for plantation, can increase productivity of the crop by making automation of the farming equipment (Md Nazmus Sakib Miazi, Zenville Erasmusz, Md. Abdur Razzaque, Marco Zennaro & Antoine Bagula, 2016). IoT can improve the quality of the education system by connecting the teachers and students, can meet the requirement of individual student’s capacity by delivering required standard teaching material (Sanchit, 2018).

85 Internet of Things for Bangladesh: Prospects and Challenges

David Cameron has quoted “I see the Internet of Things as a huge transformative development, a way of boosting productivity, of keeping us healthier, making transport more efficient, reducing energy needs, and tackling climate change (Press Association, 2014).”

Methodology Research Questions

• Primary Question. How can Bangladesh make the best use of IoT for her socio-economic development?

• Secondary Questions.

▪▪ What are the features, system architectures and technologies are required for the use of various IoT applications?

▪▪ Which are the types of IoT applications will enhance socio- economic developments for Bangladesh?

▪▪ Which are the challenges and barriers for adopting IoT in Bangladesh?

▪▪ What are ways and means to overcome the challenges of IoT in Bangladesh?

Research Objectives

• To study IoT as a technology along with its features, architecture, technologies, ecosystem, trends and experiences from other countries.

• To review key applications of IoT suitable for the socio-economic development of Bangladesh.

• To identify the major challenges and barriers for the adoption of IoT in Bangladesh.

86 • To suggest ways and means to overcome the challenges of IoT adoption for Bangladesh.

Conceptual Framework. A Conceptual framework of the research paper is shown in Figure-1:

Figure 1. Conceptual Framework of the Research

Source: Author

Research Design. Since IoT is still a new technology, the qualitative method of research is the most appropriate. It will try to find out various issues and facts about IoT. The research design will be exploratory, due to the fact that there are only few studies available dealing with the prospects and challenges of IoT. Moreover, exploratory research will provide the opportunity to clarify and define new ideas about the IoT as an emerging technology.

87 Internet of Things for Bangladesh: Prospects and Challenges

Methods of Data Collection. The methods are:

• Literature Review. The literature review on IoT technology, applications, prospects, challenges especially in the developing countries etc. and study the experiences of few countries adopting IoT to identify key applications which would enhance the socio-economic developments.

• Focus Group Discussion (FGD). Two FGDs were conducted: one discussion took place in BTRC, which is the National Telecommunication Regulator and the other was with ‘e-Generation Ltd’, a leading private ICT company of Bangladesh.

• Interviews. A good number of interviews were conducted with Key Informant Interviews (KII) such as with policymaker, high ranking government officials, academia, ICT and IoT entrepreneurs and experts.

• Primary Data. Primary data was collected from the views of ICT industry and experts, data from IoT projects and entrepreneurs operating in Bangladesh.

• Secondary Data. Desk research was used for data collection from the internet resources like white papers, analytical reports, survey, websites, journal articles etc.

Overview of IoT

Definition of IoT. IEEE in its special 2015-Report on IoT issued in March 2014 describes “Internet of Things” as a network of items each embedded with sensors which are connected to the internet (IEEE Internet of Things, 2015). ITU has endorsed that IoT is a network that is “available anywhere, anytime, by anything and anyone” is shown in Figure-2.

88 Figure 2. Concept of Internet of Things

Figure 2. Concept of Internet of Things, Source: Author Source: Author

Components of IoT System. A generic IoT system typically consists of five components: sensors are mainly used to collect and transduce the data, computing node is a processor for the data and information, received from a sensor, receiver to facilitate collecting the message sent by the computing nodes, actuator to process the information received from the sensor and, then triggering the associated device and device to perform the desired task as and when triggered.

Architecture and Technologies of IoT. There is no universally agreed architecture for IoT system. Different architectures are proposed by different researchers and groups. IoT platforms are required to run an IoT application. Basic Elements of an IoT Platform Architecture is shown as Figure-3. Examples of IoT platform: Google Cloud, Microsoft Az, C3IoT etc.

Figure 3. Basic Elements of an IoT Platform Architecture,

Source: BCC Research,Figure 3. Basic Nandita Elements Bhotika of an IoT Platform(2018) Architecture, Source: BCC Research, Nandita Bhotika (2018)

89 Internet of Things for Bangladesh: Prospects and Challenges

Important technologies used for IoT are RFID, NFC, Wireless Sensing Network (WSN), Wi-Fi, ZigBee, Low Power Wireless Personal Area (6LoWPAN) etc. (Georgios, Mavridis, 2017).

Ecosystem of IoT. The IoT ecosystem is made of four main parts: hardware, software/connectivity, rules and services are shown in Figure-4.

Figure 4. IoT Ecosystem and stakeholders

Source:Figure CompTIA 4. IoT Ecosy (2016)stem and stakeholders, Source: CompTIA (2016)

Trends of Growth of IoT

• CompTIA. From 2014-2020, the growth of IoT was at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.1% and estimated that 50.1 billion of things will be connected to the internet by 2020 shown in Figure-5.

90 Figure 5. Projection of Growth of ‘Things’ Connected to the Internet

Source: CompTIAFigure 5. (2016)Projection of Growth of ‘Things’ Connected to the Internet, Source: CompTIA (2016) • Deloitte-NASSCOM. From the Deloitte-National Association of Software and Services Companies (NASSCOM), analysis using Gartner and other industry report, the growth rate of IoT installed base is shown in Figure 6 which shows a positive trend both in consumer and Industry IoT (NASSCOM, 2017).

Figure 6: IoT Installrd Base (by Category) (Million)

Source: NASSCOM

91 Internet of Things for Bangladesh: Prospects and Challenges

• Factors Impacting the Growth of IoT. The swift development and growth of the IoT is driven by the increased adoption of mobile devices in our daily life, declining costs of sensors, bandwidth, data processing and data storage, decreased size of hardware elements, convergence of AI with IoT and increased maturity of big data, advent of Cloud/Fog computing and data analytics (IOT Analytics, 2019).

Examples from the Asian Countries on IoT Adoption

• India. India is deploying IoT in industrial manufacturing, energy, agriculture, utilities, transport, and logistics sector. Indian Government is leading the initiative and combining the ‘Digital India’ and ‘Make in India’. A special focus is on the development of 100 smart cities, consisting of 80% public- private-partnership (PPP) and 20% public funded basic infrastructure. India is going to deploy IoT healthcare, public utility services, traffic management sectors in the planned 100 smart Cities in Figure-7.

Figure 7: Distribution of Industrial IoT market size,

Figure 7: Distribution of Industrial IoT market size, Source: Priya Source: Priya (2019) (2019) • China. With the rapid development of 5G technology and data analytics, China is likely to lead the global IoT market. In China the IoT market is growing considerably faster than GDP, projected annual growth until 2020 is between 20%-30% and size of Chinese IoT market in comparison to world market are shown in Figure-8.

92 Figure 8. Growth of IoT Market in China

Source: FintechFigure (2018) 8. Growth of IoT Market in China, Source: Fintech (2018)

• Japan. Today, users in Japan mostly use IoT in transportation, surveillance, remote payment, logistics assistance and remote metering sectors. Japan’s most popular IoT services currently involve vending machines, transportation management, and surveillance and e-wallet services (Yuichi Kawamoto, Hiroki Nishiyama, Nei Kato, Naoko Yoshimura, and Shinichi Yamamoto, 2014).

Prospects of IoT Applications: Socio-Economic Perspectives. IoT applications can be used to make human lives easier, comfortable and safe. A schematic diagram in Figure 9 shows various prospects and applications of IoT (Omonua Elizabeth, F., 2016).

Figure 9: Diagram of IoT Application Areas

Source: Omoma Elizabeth, F

93 Internet of Things for Bangladesh: Prospects and Challenges

Agriculture. In the agriculture sector, the farmers can use the IoT applications to grow more crops in the same land by using this technology. By using IoT in the precision farming, the farmers can know what seeds to plant, what amount of fertilizer they should use, which is the best time to harvest. More so, IoT can collect data related to weather, soil, crop maturity etc. (Juan Pedro Tomas, 2017). Agriculture drones are also used in USA, Japan, China etc. From a survey it is found that up to 90% of water use for irrigation can be saved with drone technology and up to 50% of chemical volume can be reduced while applying fertilizer with drone spraying. The precision farming using agriculture drone is shown in Figure-10.

Figure 10. Precision Farming with Agriculture Drone

Source: Meister Media Worldwide (2019)

Livestock Monitoring. IoT enables farmers to monitor livestock located in remote locations from one centralized location. Farmers can monitor everything from each animal’s health, location, eating habits and reproductive cycle to the herd’s grazing. IoT can also be useful during a cow’s reproductive cycle to monitor when a cow goes into heat which increases productivity and potential revenue (Phil Dawsey, 2017). Livestock management can be implemented with LoRaWAN network which is typically laid out in a star topology as shown in Figure-11(Deepak Puri, 2016).

94 Figure 11: Livestock Management with IoT Wearble

Source : Deepak Puri

Education. The mobile-enabled IoT-solutions can customize the learning process to each student’s needs, connecting to their teachers. IoT improves the overall proficiency levels in the education system. Sanchit (2018) mentioned that, IoT relieves the administrative and management duties, so they can focus on their core responsibility of educating the students. Example: IoT applications in smart attendance system, smart class room, lab, cafeteria, office, transportation, building management, activity tracking etc. Some IoT applications in education sector are shown in Figure-12.

Figure 12. IoT Education Applications

Source:Figure Data 12. Flair IoT Education (2019) Applications, Source: Data Flair (2019)

95 Internet of Things for Bangladesh: Prospects and Challenges

Smart Healthcare. IoT healthcare applications keep patients safe and healthy and it also ensures better physician care. Enormous data of the patient can be collected using IoT medical sensors and analysis of the medical data facilitates better care and treatment. Example: IoT sensors can measure blood pressure, glucose levels and heart rate etc. which can provide a person early indicator regarding individual health condition and can prevent sudden critical health condition. The IoT Healthcare System architecture is shown in Figure-13.

Figure 13. Smart IoT Healthcare System

Source: Java Point (2018)

Smart Grid. The ‘Smart Grid’ system communicates with all available energy sources like power plant, solar power, wind farms, home electrical system etc. using computer network. IoT based ‘smart grid’ will ensure better interaction on energy flow and deliver electricity more efficiently and sustainably. An IoT based smart grid system is shown in Figure-14.

96 Figure 14. Smart Grid Application

Source: Rebel Saffold (2016)

Smart Factory and Industrial IoT. Use of IoT in the ‘Smart Factory’ has added a new value in manufacturing industry. The smart factory is associated with the concept of ‘Industry 4.0’ which is based on ‘Cyber Physical Systems (CPS)’ which is controlled or monitored by computer- based algorithms, integrated with internet and its users. Zeinab Kamal Aldein Mohammed and Elmustafa Sayed Ali Ahmed (2017) mentioned that the ‘Industry 4.0’ concept uses the IoT technology for automation and the concept deals many aspects of the industry as shown in Figure-15. Example: smart manufacturing, smart maintenance, supply chain management, product design & engineering etc.

Figure 15. IoT Smart Factory and Industry 4.0

Source: Author

97 Internet of Things for Bangladesh: Prospects and Challenges

Smart Home. A smart home is a residence that uses internet-connected devices to enable the remote monitoring and management of home appliances and systems, such as lighting, air condition, heating, door lock, security alarm etc. Smart home technology provides homeowners security, comfort, convenience and energy efficiency. Godfrey A. Akpakwu, Bruno J. Silva, Gerhard P. Hancke, & Adnan M. Abu-Mahfouz (2017) had mentioned that the smart devices of the home are controlled by often by a smart home app on their Smartphone or other networked device. Some IoT applications used in the smart home are shown in Figure-16.

Figure 16. Smart Home System

Source: Tech Target IoT Agenda (2018)

Smart City. IoT based ‘Smart City’ applications provide many services to the city dwellers. Example: IoT, smart retail, smart government, traffic management, waste management, environment monitoring, safer urban life etc. Dr. Gwanhoo Lee (2016) mentioned that IoT technology can transform cities to smart ones. The Schematic diagram of a Smart City System is shown in Figure-17.

98 Figure 17. Smart City

Source: Pritam Gajananrao Andel, Dinesh V. Rojatkar (2017)

The Contribution of IoT to Economic Growth. The GSMA Report in April 2019 has stated that the world economy is benefited by $175 billion in 2018 from the productivity increase in businesses from the use of IoT (GSMA, 2019). The economic impact of IoT on business productivity of some countries in 2018 is shown in Figure 18.

Figure 18. Economic Impact of IoT on Business Productivity, Global in 2018

Figure 18. Economic impact of IoT on business productivity, Source: GSMA (2019)Global in 2018, Source: GSMA (2019)

99 Internet of Things for Bangladesh: Prospects and Challenges

Challenges to the Adoption of IOT and Preparedness of Bangladesh. As a new technology, IoT has many challenges: technical, security, societal. The technical and policy issues posing as challenges to adopt IoT are shown in Figure-19.

Figure 19. Challenges of IoT System

Source: ITU & CISCO (2015)

Technical Challenges

• Connectivity: The most significant challenges of the future of IoT would be to connect millions of devices and it requires a thorough change of existing network architecture.

• Standardization. Standardization is most important requirement for the mass deployment and diffusion of any new technology. Currently, there is no universally agreed-upon standard for IoT. CEO Cees mentioned that until the industry has agreed-upon standards, a quick IoT roll out might be at risk. There are already some good standards which govern IoT wireless protocols are WiFi, Bluetooth, and ZigBee (Brian Buntz, 2016).

100 • Migration to IPv6. As the number of IoT devices scale up, the migration from IPv4 to IPv6 will be necessary for providing adequate address space for billions of IoT objects.

• Regularity Issues. The absence of regularity directive for IoT may create unsafe IoT networks where data can go into the hands of bad actors and which may jeopardize emergency services, health and highway authorities etc.

Security Challenges

• Vulnerability. In IoT system, both the hardware and software may have design flaws which can make it vulnerable. For example: the malware can capture IoT gadgets that are used in basic applications like smart-home devices and CCTV cameras.

• Cyber Attack. Large scale applications and services based on the IoT are increasingly vulnerable to cyber-attacks or information theft. Example: DoS attacks in various public and private sector companies.

• Data Privacy: In IoT network, the data (personal & business) management and data security is a big challenge since most of the IoT devices are not designed with sufficient security features.

Societal Challenges

• Human Behaviour. By nature everyone wants to pass his time within comfort zone, he doesn’t want to change the usual habits due to adoption of new technology IoT.

• Risks and Threat. There are certain security risks and threats to IoT consumers: a customer may be subject to theft of information, hijacking the network, tracking the movement by IoT wearable, pacemaker or insulin pump of a customer being attacked by hackers, hacking the personal vehicle or home appliances etc.

101 Internet of Things for Bangladesh: Prospects and Challenges

• Threat of Job Cut. There is a realistic concern in relation to job cut due to the mass adoption of IoT in the society. For example: If robotic warehouses perform well, then many workers will lose their jobs. Currently Amazon, Ali Baba also uses robot to ensure stock in the supply chain.

Preparedness of Bangladesh. A large number of ICT projects have been implemented under ‘Digital Bangladesh’ initiative since 2010 and a good number of ICT enabled manpower has been developed through training programs (a2i Program, 2011). The high growth rate of mobile and internet connections, communication infrastructure, nationwide large optical fiber-network and delivery of many public services using digital means from the ‘Union Digital Centre’ and various government offices will definitely enhance the adoption of IoT in Bangladesh (a2i, PMO’s Office, 2017).

Absence of ‘National IoT Policy’. Smart-phones will be mostly used for controlling all kinds of IoT applications. Bangladesh is yet to formulate the ‘National IoT Policy’ and in order to expedite the adoption of IoT, By 2025, Bangladesh will enter into the club of ‘Smartphone superpowers’ (i.e. top 10 countries using maximum smart-phones) in Figure-20 (GSMA, Intelligence Report, 2019).

Figure 20. Smartphone Super Power in the World by 2025

Source: GSMA (2019)

102 Results and Findings. A survey was conducted to relate the perception about the challenges and prospects of IoT for the socio-economic development of Bangladesh with the international experience, analysis reports and theoretical understanding of IoT. A group of senior and mid- level government officials, experts from BTRC and ICT industry were considered as the respondents for the survey. Total 53 respondents have participated in the survey. The survey results and findings are: • IoT in Healthcare. Figure-21, shows that the majority respondents want to use IoT based healthcare system (Yes-53.7% and No-42.6%), majority agreed to control pacemaker and insulin pump from outside using IoT sensors (Yes-51.8% and No-38.9%), majority accepts that IoT-based system can be used to conduct blood test (Yes-53.7% and No-38.9%). The survey also shows that IoT-based system can diagnose major diseases like cancer; heart diseases etc. and IoT wearable can manage health records. Figure 21. The Response of Survey Findings about IoT in Healthcare

• IoT in Education. Figure-22 shows the majority respondents (77.35%) agreed that IoT can improve the quality of the existing education system of Bangladesh. Besides, 71.69% respondents think that IoT can provide personalized teaching, 56.6% of the respondents think IoT can overcome the deficiencies of good teacher. The findings also show that the 84.9% respondents think IoT can be used for R&D, only 36% families’ use smart device for education and 38% are not ready to adopt IoT for making changes in the education system of Bangladesh.

103 Internet of Things for Bangladesh: Prospects and Challenges

Figure 22. The Response of Survey Findings about IoT in Education

• Preference of IoT Applications. Figure-23 shows that amongst the IoT applications, education sector is the most preferred sector, followed by agriculture, manufacturing, healthcare, public utility, traffic management, smart home/building/city, retail etc.

Figure 23. The Response of Survey Findings-Priority of IoT Applications

• IoT in Smart Home. Figure-24 shows, the majority respondents expressed their concerns about connecting the CCTV or surveillance

104 camera, door lock, car, heating and air-conditioning system, electrical appliances to home IoT network.

Figure 24. Survey Findings about Concern of Connecting Home Appliances to IoT

• Security Challenges of IoT. Figure-25, shows that the maximum threat for IoT adoption is cyber-attack to IoT network, followed by data privacy, threat of job cut and the non-technical people will find difficulties to use IoT.

Figure 25. Survey Findings of the Influence of Threats and Risks for IoT Adoption

Discussion. In order to tap the opportunities of IoT Government needs to formulate a national IoT policy and develop strategies to facilitate smooth adoption of IoT in Bangladesh:

105 Internet of Things for Bangladesh: Prospects and Challenges

Formulation of National IoT Policy. To overcome the challenges and successfully adopting IoT in Bangladesh, it is utmost necessary to formulate a comprehensive, realistic and open-ended national policy for IoT. The policy should be developed by making meaningful consultations with all IoT-related stakeholders. The policy should include:

• Establish Regulatory Framework. The Government should establish an effective regularity framework which should formulate realistic regulations in line with the international standard, customer and industry-friendly so that the entrepreneurs can easily deploy IoT services for the consumers.

• Addressing Security Threats. All kinds of security threat including cyber-attacks, data privacy should be addressed through multi-stake holder collaboration of regulators, industry and businesses. IoT device manufacturer to ensure that cyber-security features including data privacy in the IoT devices by design.

• Building Connectivity Infrastructures. BTRC should allocate sufficient spectrum and implement migration to IPv6 from IPv4 to address the capacity to support the billions of IoT devices to be connected for IoT applications. More so, the infrastructure for big data and data analytics for IoT applications should also to be developed.

• Create Awareness and Business Potential. Most of the people in Bangladesh do not have clear knowledge about IoT applications and its future business potentials. The regulator, industry and the entrepreneurs should organize workshop, seminars and publish articles in national journals on the benefits of IoT.

• Promote Capacity Building, Innovation and R&D. The Government should provide sufficient fund for capacity building training, setting up IoT innovation centers and Test-beds at the colleges and universities for R&D, development of APIs. The Government should support private sector’s investment and IoT projects through PPP and with international partners.

106 • Building Trust and Drive demand through Public Sector. Government should take initiative to build and maintain consumer trust in IoT by introducing IoT in Government offices. Once people will be used to with IoT applications then, the trust will be grown about IoT.

• Selection of IoT Applications. Bangladesh needs to select the right kind of IoT applications which will ensure sustainable socio-economic developments and generate new kinds of jobs. Honorable Minister for Post and Telecommunication Division (PTD) Mustafa Jabber (January, 2019) has said that once 4IR will be in full flow new sources of job will be created in the country.

• Development of Action Plan and Budget. Related government department and offices should develop their respective action plans in order to implement the national IoT policy. The Government should allocate required budget for the adoption of IoT in the public sectors at first.

• Forming ‘Technical Expert Body’. A ‘Technical expert body’ should be formed as an advisory group with regulator, academia and industry to maintain the technological growth of IoT in Bangladesh in line with international standard. The body should organize regular dialogues with IoT ecosystem partners and advice on the development matters of IoT in Bangladesh.

Develop Strategy Roadmap for IoT Adoption. Government should develop a strategy roadmap’ based on the National IoT Policy which should suggest a ‘Governance Structure’ to oversee the progress of the adoption of IoT in Bangladesh. The roadmap should include short-term and long-term measures with timelines so that the ongoing socio-economic growth of Bangladesh can be enhanced with the adoption IoT application in various sectors.

107 Internet of Things for Bangladesh: Prospects and Challenges

Recommendations

• Ministry of Post, Telecommunication and ICT (MOPT&ICT) to formulate ‘National IoT Policy’ addressing measures to overcome all types of challenges, action plans, regularity framework, infrastructures, awareness program, capacity building etc. • The Government should develop a comprehensive ‘IoT Strategic Roadmap’ with five years’ time plan, highlighting various responsibilities of related stakeholders in line with the ‘National IoT Policy’.

• MOPT&ICT should setup a ‘Governance Structure’ as under: ▪▪ As an advisory group a ‘Technical Expert Body’ is to be formed consisting of regulator, industry and academia for ensuring the technological development of IoT in line with the international standard. ▪▪ An ‘Executive Committee’ to be formed with the Secretary of MOPT&ICT, representatives from BTRC, PTD, ICT Division and BCC for monitoring the implementations of the IoT projects, timely achievement of the IoT strategic roadmap and periodical review of the effectiveness of IoT adoption.

Conclusion

IoT is a popular emerging technology, consists of connected machines and devices that generate huge amount data to accomplish a job. IoT is still a growing technology with very high potentials and yet doesn’t have an internationally accepted standard protocol. From most of the international reports it is found that the trend of connections of IoT devices in the network is positive. The new IoT devices, platforms, wireless technologies, applications are regularly being added to the existing list. Important technologies used in IoT networks are RFID, NFC, WSN, Wi-Fi, ZigBee, 6LoWPAN etc. The ecosystem of IoT includes hardware, software, IoT

108 network, services and regulations. From the examples of IoT adoption in India, China, Korea and Japan, it is found that the Government always formulate an IoT Policy and select strategies for adoption in the country.

IoT applications can help to enhance the socio-economic developments. IoT can help farmers to automate their farming equipment, monitor their livestock and precision farming can help with real-time information like best time to harvest, weather condition, soil condition, use of drone for providing water and fertilizers to the farmland etc. IoT can improve the quality of education system, provide personalized education. IoT can provide better healthcare by IoT wearable, medical sensors etc. IoT can be used in smart home, smart city and providing improved life-style and reducing living cost with better public services. Use of IoT applications ensure ‘smart governance’, better access to information, delivering digital services to all citizens. IoT applications create new and profitable business models, real-time information, data-management etc. Industrial IoT improves operational efficiency, reduces operational cost and downtime, and enhances worker safety.

Though IoT has many benefits and potentials for every walks of human lives, but it also has many challenges: technical, security and societal. The technical challenges include connectivity, standardization, interoperability connecting of billion devices, IPv6 migration, power consumption etc. The security challenges are vulnerability, exposure of IoT device, data privacy and cyber- attacks to consumer and critical service system of healthcare, transportation, public service delivery system etc. Influential societal challenges are frequent change of human behavior or understanding IoT from consumer point of view, trust factor in IoT, risks and threats, likelihood of job cut etc. The developing countries’ challenges are labour oriented market place, poor infrastructure and security arrangement, shortages of IoT skilled manpower etc. The Challenges to adopt IoT in Bangladesh are absence of National IoT Policy, lack of awareness about IoT, shortages of skilled workforce, lack of infrastructures for managing big data and data analytics, fear of uncertainty

109 Internet of Things for Bangladesh: Prospects and Challenges about the business potentials of IoT. As a result, only few companies in Bangladesh are doing IoT business with minimum scale. ‘Digital Bangladesh’ initiatives in the field of ICT training, establishing digital connectivity through optical fiber, extending digital service delivery at the UDCs etc. will significantly help in the adoption of IoT in Bangladesh.

A survey was conducted to verify and relate various concepts about likely impact of IoT applications in our socio-economic perspective. Findings show that majority respondents thin IoT applications in healthcare and education system will be able to bring positive socio-economic impact by improving healthcare and quality of education system. The survey showed security and data privacy are big concern for IoT adoption. Amongst many type of IoT applications, the respondents have prioritized agriculture, manufacturing, healthcare, smart utility services, traffic managements sectors etc.

To overcome the challenges and adoption of IoT in Bangladesh Government needs to formulate ‘National IoT Policy’. The policy should recommend time-bound IoT strategy roadmap for IoT adoption. The policy should promote integration of public and private sectors. A ‘Technical Expert Body’ may be formed for maintaining the development of IoT in line with international standard. Governmental departments should make their action plans and allocate budget for the implementation of the policy and setup a ‘governance structure’ for the implementation of the IoT adoption.

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116 Author

Brigadier General Md Nasim Parvez, ndc, afwc, psc is commissioned in the Corps of Signals on 20 December 1991. He served in number of Signal units in various appointments like Second-in-command, company commander, company officer and platoon commander. He commanded 7 Signal Battalion in 24 Infantry Division for providing signal communication to all units in Chottogram and CHT. Besides his regimental appointments, he had the distinction of serving in various staff and instructional appointments As staff, he served as the Grade 3 Operations/Training at 86 Independent Signal Brigade, Deputy Assistant Military Secretary at the Military Secretariat Branch at Army Headquarters, Grade 1 Staff of Signals Directorate at Army Headquarters. He was Instructor Class B, Instructor Class A and the Chief Instructor at the Signals Training Centre & School. He served as the Director General (Spectrum Management) at the Bangladesh Telecommunication and Regulatory Commission (BTRC). During his service at BTRC, he conducted the 4G Spectrum Auction and was deeply involved in the formulation of National Frequency Allocation Plan (NFAP) of Bangladesh and the launching of 4G in Bangladesh. He is a Computer Science & Engineer graduate from Bangladesh University of Engineering & Technology (BUET). He is also a graduate of Defence Services Command and Staff College, Mirpur and obtained his Masters in Defence Studies from National University, Bangladesh. He is also a graduate of Armed Forces War Course (afwc) from National Defence College (NDC). He has also obtained his Master of Science in ICT (MICT) and Master of Social Science in Security and Development from Bangladesh University of Professionals. He participated in the United Nations Peace Keeping Operation with Bangladesh Battalion in D R Congo (MONUC) and as a military observer in Liberia (UNMIL).

Email: [email protected]

117 MARITIME SECURITY OF THE BAY OF BENGAL: JOINT IMPERATIVES OF ARMED FORCES AND MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS

Commodore Mir Ershad Ali, (G), NPP, ndc, psc, BN

Introduction

Maritime Security of the Bay of Bengal (BoB) has become a VUCA domain and a cauldron of power politics. It is undergoing significant changes emerging into a complex multi-polar setting. Owing to its geo- strategic-economic disposition, jostling among regional and extra-regional maritime powers for influence in the bay persists. In the changing security dynamic, the bay has emerged as a critical theatre for economic and strategic competition in the region. A historical bridge between South and East Asia, the bay today appears to be the fulcrum of a wider Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS) and rise of Sino-Indian maritime competition. The bay has become a playground in a nascent multi-polar world order and the order is fragile and may flare up to conflict. There are other dynamics that are shaping the security of the bay, spearheaded by the interests of regional and extra-regional powers. In a nutshell, the maritime security domain of the BoB is evolving into a complex security matrix.

Bangladesh is a maritime nation, therefore importance of the bay for Bangladesh cannot be overstated. The bay is our most trusted ‘third neighbour’ and being a resource starved country, this final frontier holds enormous economic potential for the nation. Undoubtedly, next to India, Bangladesh is the most significant arbiter in the bay in terms of security and economic stakes. Therefore, it is imperative for Bangladesh to prudently analyze its position so as to not get entangled in the regional power politics maintaining its strategic autonomy in pursuing its national maritime interests.

118 For Bangladesh, diplomatic and military instruments of national power are the primary responders to the evolving security disposition of the BoB. Non-aligned foreign policy of Bangladesh with its dictum ‘Friendship to all, malice to none’ by and large regarded as ‘the guiding principle’ to draw leverage in the diplomatic front. The same dictum is also embedded in the military strategy, which shapes our defence preparedness. To deter intimidation in the bay, Bangladesh should have a well-crafted diplomatic policy and solid military standing. However, in the wake of the recent Rohingya crisis it has been widely criticized that our diplomatic and military strategic maneuver did not yield much success and the military strategic posture aligning with the foreign policy dictum may have also stumbled to infer desired deterrence value.

This research paper aims to foster concrete understanding of the security dynamics specific to the BoB and portray a posited outlook. Itwill also analyze effectiveness, deficits, disconnects, caveats in our foreign and defence policy/ military/ maritime strategy in order to synthesize military and diplomatic instruments of the statecraft. The paper will also infer integrated approaches of Bangladesh Armed Forces and Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA) to ensure the national maritime interests multiplying military–diplomatic strength (smart power).

Literature Review

The BoB did not draw much attention as a strategic space and even termed as “Forgotten Sea” (Bhandari and Reiko Nakamura, 2016). Some of the leading maritime security analysts and scholars (Xavier. C. et al. 2017) opine that BoB is a new strategic space and has gained importance due to China’s growing interest in the IO, India’s Look East policy, and the growing relevance of an integrated Indo-Pacific alliance led by the US. Khurana appears to conceptualize the strategic environment of the IOR (and BoB as subset) being the host of a number of hotspots with ideological fault lines that seriously impact the regional geopolitics (Khurana, 2004).

119 Maritime Security of the Bay of Bengal: Joint Imperatives of Armed Forces and Ministry of Foreign Affairs

Brewster maintains that the BoB has a similar strategic importance to the IO as the South China Sea (SCS) does in the Pacific. Together the BoB and the SCS are the lynchpins that connect the Indo-Pacific (David, 2018). Brewster reiterates that a key part of the strategic jostling occurring in the BoB involves India’s attempts to consolidate its role as the leading maritime power in the bay (David, 2014).

To contextualize Bangladesh in the evolving complex maritime security paradigm, Rashed explains that China considers Bangladesh to be an important player in implementing its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) (Rashed Uz Zaman, 2017). He also opines that Bangladesh has adroitly played her cards, effectively balancing ties with China and India in order to reap the benefits of both relationships and it remains to be seen if Bangladesh can continue to tread carefully between the two powerhouses. Hossain and Islam maintain that clearly the maritime security concerns have long been neglected and strongly recommended to include maritime security into the broader framework of Bangladesh’s look east policy (Hossain, 2019).

As one of the geo-political epicenters of the Indo-Pacific regions, and being the host of the BoB, Bangladesh is in the most advantageous position to harness the jostling and maneuver to its economic and strategic gain (Riasat, 2019). Therefore, Bangladesh’s strategic culture must adapt to the new realities of power and balance between the pragmatism of Kautilya and idealism of Sun Tzu, in order to evolve a more engaged foreign policy and ensure our stability, security and prosperity in a fast-changing regional and global order (Ataur, 2014).

Research Methodology

The research subject involves both exploratory and descriptive research methods. It encompasses use of primary source (survey and interview), document analysis along with supplemental research on secondary sources. Few statistical tools (VUCA, SWOT, Force Field, etc) have been used to conclude quantitative data analysis. A number of military and

120 civil senior leadership including academia, former Ambassadors/ High Commissioners have been interviewed to validate the outcomes of the survey and also to get in-depth insight on issues related to the military and diplomatic context of the BoB.

Geo-Strategic Contours of Bay of Bengal

The Bay of Bengal is starting to become whole again and is returning to the centre of history.… No one interested in geopolitics can afford to ignore the Bay of Bengal any longer….This is the new-old center of the world, joining the two demographic immensities of the Indian subcontinent and East Asia.

-Robert D. Kaplan

Historical Milieu of the BoB

The history of the BoB spiraled through the time, glorified at some stage and lackluster at another like the turn of the tide. Historical eminence of the BoB has been probably best elucidated by Sunil S. Amrith, who narrated that this bay “was once a region at the heart of global history, but which in the second half of the 20th century was carved up by the boundaries of nation-states, its shared past divided into the separate compartments of national histories (Amrath, 2013).” For centuries the BoB served as a maritime highway between India and China, and then as a battleground for European empires. In the pre-colonial period in the Mughal Era, it served as an integrated space connected through ‘monsoon winds’ trade routes across the IO. The BoB witnessed a major maritime conflict in 1971, which consisted of a series of naval battles fought between the Indian and Pakistani Navies during the Bangladesh War of Liberation. The bay also saw rivalry throughout the Cold War period between the USA and the USSR.

121 Maritime Security of the Bay of Bengal: Joint Imperatives of Armed Forces and Ministry of Foreign Affairs

Figure 1: Indian Ocean Trade Routes and Sea Lanes in 1600s

Source: Cambridge University Press

Strategic Analysis - Maritime Security Conundrum of BoB

Defining Maritime Security. The term ‘Maritime Security’ (MARSEC) encompasses those aspects of national security of a nation which are directly or indirectly related to the activities of the sea. Maritime security is traditionally conceptualized and interpreted from dogmatic realist or liberalist theories. Realist like Mahan postulates that the seas are the dominions of both regional and superpower rivalry. On the other hand, liberalist theory emphasizes mare liberium interpretations.

Research Findings-BoB Strategic Maritime Security Environment (SMSE)

Contemporary Maritime Security Environment. Survey findings suggests that the general perception about the SMSE is tensed but non- violent. Many also opined that the BoB is peaceful in the present outlook. Most of the survey respondents indicated that both traditional and non- traditional security (NTS) fault-lines are prevalent in the BoB. Interview also reinforced that besides the matters of physical or normative security, informal and non-traditional security matters have become bigger concerns for the BoB littorals in the present days.

122 Strategic Trend - VUCA Analysis

“A fundamental lesson from history is that strategy is necessarily purposeful, but must be designed in a world of ambiguity, complexity and uncertainty” (Frank, 2014).

Majority of the respondents perceive the SMSE of BoB as ‘Complex’ due to the interplay of various tangible and intangible events and factors. Many interviewee mentioned that BoB is now a potential hotspot of rivalry between the big powers mingled with rivalries of regional powers, and there lies the complexity. Some also termed the US-China-India nexus with ‘convergent and divergent of interests’ in the bay is the epitome of what happens when there are ‘too many big fishes in a small pond’, with hardly any space to maneuver. Many others also opine in the same line of thought. From the graph it can also be seen that the preponderance of the next element is ‘Uncertainty’. During the interview many also substantiated the same because of the fact that the dynamics of the BoB is too confounding to make any rational future projection.

Figure 2: Contemporary SMSE of BoB through VUCA Lens

Source: Field Survey by Author

‘Multiplex of Forces’ has been predominantly identified as the driver of the complex SMSE of the BoB. Understandably this is due to the diversity of actors intimidating the SMSE of BoB maritime domain continues to grow in number and capability. There is also a general a lack of ‘Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA)’ and land centric issues are more of concern

123 Maritime Security of the Bay of Bengal: Joint Imperatives of Armed Forces and Ministry of Foreign Affairs than the lackluster maritime domain of the bay. In reality, none of the BoB littorals are purely maritime. Instead most of them face continental vs maritime duel. This implies the possibility of lack of MDA could be one of the reasons of appreciating the SMSE of the BoB to be confounding.

Figure 3: Drivers of VUCA Component of ‘Uncertainty’ of the SMSE of the BoB

Source: Field Survey by Author

However, simply put, maritime is a VUCA domain, where it is hard to make substantial distinction between the different elements of VUCA. US National Strategy for Maritime Security (2005) reinforces that “Complexity and Ambiguity are hallmarks of today’s security environment, especially in the maritime domain”. Many interviewees also interchangeably used the four elements of the VUCA, understandably due to the asymmetric nature of the security threats in the Bay in terms of acts and actors, in diverse forms and means, at times for incomprehensible intents and purposes.

124 SWOT Analysis

Figure 4: SWOT Analysis - Geo-Strategic Outlook

Source: Author Conceived

Bangladesh as a BoB littoral will require extreme prudence and concerted efforts to turn the weaknesses into opportunities. Bangladesh should focus on developing communication infrastructures like deep sea port, which would create not only huge economic opportunities, but also the much needed dependency (Wikipedia, 2019) by other countries. Such dependency will provide the necessary diplomatic and strategic leverage, to be an active arbiter of peace and stability in the BoB maritime domain and beyond.

Geo-Strategic Outlook of the BoB-Strategic Trend Analysis

From the foregoing discussions, it is well understood that the geo-strategic scenario of the BoB is nothing less than a perfect example of VUCA world. There are many dimensions that shape the geo-strategic environment. These dimensions as shown below coupled with the strategic shocks like Rohingya Crisis will, over the time, present some divergent of outcomes as shown in figure 5.

125 Maritime Security of the Bay of Bengal: Joint Imperatives of Armed Forces and Ministry of Foreign Affairs

Figure 5:Geo-Strategic Outlook of BoB

Source: Author’s Construct

Posited outlooks can be of three divergent possibilities. The most probable outcome as the foregoing discussion suggested would result in competition and conflict. Competition to gain strong foothold in the bay is likely to continue either by bandwagoning or by developing own hard power. Conflict is also a probable outcome like Rohingya crisis, or like naval standoff in 2008, but so far such conflicts did not turn into violent armed conflict.

Force Field Analysis

The geostrategic outlook based on the above discussion can be validated through a Force Field analytical model. Factors are listed under different categories to weigh out their balancing effect.

126 Figure 6: Force Field Analysis of Geo-Strategic Outlook of BoB

Source: Author’s Construct

From the above Force Field Analysis it can be seen that the self-explanatory driving and restraining forces are almost balancing out each other to a state of equilibrium. Therefore, it can be postulated that the geo-strategic outlook of the bay in all probability and possibility will maintain the status quo. However, given the VUCA dynamics, Black Swan contingence needs to be embedded in all maritime security policies and strategies.

Maritime Domain Vis-À-Vis Foreign Policy of Bangladesh

Maritime Geopolitics and Foreign Policy-Bangladesh Context

Napoleon Bonaparte postulated that “the foreign policy of a country is determined by its geography”. Therefore, the foreign policy of any maritime nation will have inherent maritime character. Economically and strategically Bangladesh remains a maritime nation. Bangladesh is positioned at the cross road between East and West providing excellent

127 Maritime Security of the Bay of Bengal: Joint Imperatives of Armed Forces and Ministry of Foreign Affairs connectivity through sea and land. On the other hand, the country is also blessed with the maritime area almost of the similar size of the landmass. Both these facts underscore our possibility and opportunity to become a developed and prosperous maritime nation. To that pursuit, the maritime aspirations of the country, has to find its due space in the foreign policy discourses.

Deficits and Disconnects - Foreign Policy and Maritime Security

Lack of Institutional Framework for Maritime Input in Policy Making. Bangladesh is yet to have a Ministry/Division dedicated to plan and coordinate maritime affairs. Though all issues of maritime relevance including security are interconnected, the policy decision is often not coherent due to lack of a central body.

Diplomatic Offices in Foreign Missions. Under the existing rules of business of the government, concerned ministries are responsible for economic, trade, manpower and environmental policies with little input from the foreign office (Rezwanul, 2016). Moreover, there seems to be a vacuum in the foreign missions to look after maritime, blue economy and maritime security issues adequately.

Lack of Coherent Policy for Participants in Cooperative Forums. As seen in the figure below, probably IOR has the most and diverse arrays of regional cooperative bodies with overlapping jurisdictions implying debates between the proponents of ‘inclusive versus regional exclusiveness’ and ‘bilateral versus multilateral’ construct pitting ‘one convergence against another’ (Khurana, 2016). Armed Forces and MoFA participate these forums without coordination between the two with a lack of policy guidance on Bangladesh’s objectives. It is, therefore, difficult to achieve desired outcome from these interactions.

128 Figure 7: Fusion of Cooperative Constructs

Source: Author Conceived

Lack of Robust Maritime Think Tank. Bangladesh does not have dedicated maritime think tank other than recently launched Bangladesh Institute of Maritime Research and Development (BIMRAD). BIISS, however, does some study on maritime security and foreign policy matters.

IOR versus BOB. As BoB centric maritime security construct is yet to evolve, Bangladesh is basically party to pan-IOR constructs with too many members and observers like IONS. Regionally, SAARC offers scope of maritime cooperation but the prospect seems bleak. Therefore, a multilateral construct within the BOB littorals like BIMSTEC may be the ultimate solution.

Hard versus Soft Maritime Security. Bangladesh is yet to form cooperative relation with any multilateral construct that deals with hard security, like the ASEAN plus 8 or ADMM Plus.

Balancing Great Powers in the BOB. Bangladesh has unique geo- political standing due to her moderate Islamic image, continuity in economic progress and stable societal construct. During recent Rohingya persecution Bangladesh could not gain favorable response from the regional powers. A serious foreign policy discourse is needed to recalibrate the diplomatic approach in terms of balancing act.

129 Maritime Security of the Bay of Bengal: Joint Imperatives of Armed Forces and Ministry of Foreign Affairs

US Bay of Bengal Security Initiative and Chinese BRI. BOB Security initiative of the USA under the auspices of IPS and BRI are competing programs of two great powers. Balancing Bangladesh’s engagement with these two programs needs to have strategic analysis and careful statecraft.

Rohingya Issue-A Case for Deficit in Diplomacy

To understand the BoB security dynamics Rohingya issue serves as model case to ascertain how the strategic power play unfolds in the maritime domain. To that context, respondents have identified geo-economics as ‘push factor’ and diplomatic deficit and caveat in military deterrence as ‘pull factors’. Many of the interviewees candidly claimed that preventive and reactive diplomacy during and after has not yield any positive result so far, other than flagging the issue internationally. Therefore, keeping the friendship to all dictum intact Bangladesh should aim to gain international support through multi-lateral powerful alliances like ASEAN.

Maritime Security and Armed Forces-Bangladesh Perspective Maritime Interests

Survey respondents identified Maritime Trade and Commerce and Blue Economy as the predominant maritime interests of Bangladesh. Secretary MAU, MoFA reinforced that Bangladesh today, with her unprecedented growth trajectory, should focus more on the maritime trade and commerce and blue economy than other interests, not necessarily dispensing or discarding them altogether (Interview).

Maritime Threats

In terms of Traditional Threats, SLOC disruption and blockade are perceived to be the devastating for the economic progression of the country.

130 Keeping both the East and West bound SLOCs open is also fundamental to continue import of military hardware, or else the war waging potential will stumble. Regional instability, spillover violence from regional conflicts and the actions of pirates, terrorists, and criminal organizations makes the SLOCs vulnerable. Therefore, possibility ranging from ‘Guerre de Course’ to disruption is perpetually prevalent in the IO region, with no viable alternative shipping routes available.

Non-Traditional Threats

In terms of non-traditional maritime threats, the survey respondents perceive that disruption of blue economy should be the main concern. Maritime crimes and natural disasters are also perceived as major threats in Bangladesh. Natural resources exploration and extraction, energy hubs, ports and infrastructures, fishing, etc related mega projects are now government’s fast track priority projects, those have the potentials to change the economic fate of the country. Therefore, any asymmetric threat to disrupt those blue economic activities will definitely impair the economic growth trajectory.

Risk Repository Maritime Contours of the BoB- Bangladesh

Through empirical survey, a table of risk repository maritime contours of the BoB has been prepared with the probability and impact for each of the threats and the risk exposures of different threats have been plotted in the XY-Scatter graph below. Exposure denotes number of respondents in percentage, which indicates the size of the bubble in the figure 8.

131 Maritime Security of the Bay of Bengal: Joint Imperatives of Armed Forces and Ministry of Foreign Affairs

Figure 8: Bangladesh Maritime Risk Repository XY-Scatter Chart

Source: Survey by Author

From the figure it can be deduced that in terms of risk repository Bangladesh would still be exposed as a ‘Soft State’ with several threats constantly unsettling Bangladesh maritime security architecture (Yellow Zone). Most threatening menaces would be basically the non-traditional ones, specially maritime terrorism, refugee influx (Rohingya), disruption of maritime law and order, natural disasters, etc (Red Zone).

Armed Forces’ Response to Maritime Threats

Credible Deterrence-Capability versus Deficit

The need for credible deterrence came up as the top priority response option as indicated by the survey respondents. It is also opined that the Rohingya crisis serves a reminder to us that we need to do soul searching and act purposefully at full dispatch. However, many other interviewee did not concur with the idea of lack of credible deterrence by the Bangladesh Armed Forces. They argued that Bangladesh Armed Forces maintain a deterrent capability in accordance with the defensive posture of the armed forces as delineated by the Constitution and Defence Policy. As Bangladesh has no offensive ambition, therefore, the force structure and operational capability of the armed forces generally commensurate with the necessity,

132 but there are various modernization drives ongoing to achieve better deterrent value. Nevertheless, with the contradictory position maintained by the academia, professionals and practitioners related to the deterrence capability of Bangladesh Armed Forces, there seems to be considerable perception deficit. Perception is the key to deterrence, therefore, such deficit is surely detrimental to the deterrent image of the armed forces.

Other Military Responses

Respondents have also by and large given equal importance to other response measures like ‘Gunboat Diplomacy’, various ‘Maritime Security Constructs’ (like IONS, WPNS, IORA, etc) and ‘Maritime Domain Awareness’. All these responses need to be coordinated under the auspices of comprehensive policies and strategy.

Military Strategic Guidance (Defence Policy)

In 2018 a Defence Policy of Bangladesh has been promulgated. The document provides some pertinent military guidance, where credible deterrence as core competency for the armed forces has been prescribed. Bangladesh Navy has also been entrusted with the responsibility to protect the maritime interests of the country, deter aggression in the maritime frontier and integrate the responses of the relevant actors during war or crisis.

Armed Forces’ Strategy

Bangladesh Armed Forces’ strategy to respond to maritime security threats could be better coordinated in terms of C4ISR (Command, Control, Communications, Computer, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) primarily due to the absence of a joint services doctrine and operating procedures. During the interview, it was revealed that beside

133 Maritime Security of the Bay of Bengal: Joint Imperatives of Armed Forces and Ministry of Foreign Affairs

Navy, other two services are also concerned about the maritime security in the BoB and consider that it should be the primary military focus. However, the obvious lead service for ensuring the maritime security is the Navy, where the other two sister services are willing to render all out support. BN as the lead maritime security organization should formulate (as a bottom up approach) an inclusive, participatory, collaborative, forward looking maritime security strategy for government approval.

MARSEC of BOB – Joint Imperatives of Armed Forces and MOFA

“Soft power flows to the owner of hard power” - Joseph Nye

Deficits and Disconnects – Interrelationship between MoFA and Armed Forces

In Bangladesh context, there exists a functional relationship between the armed forces and the MoFA. However, many interviewees suggested that in reality the relationship could be more cohesive and cited some of the salient reasons as follows:

• There seems to be deficit of symbiosis between the two instruments of national power. This is predominantly due to the mindset at the senior leadership level, who are at times hesitant to cooperate and collaborate beyond their domain.

• The importance of Military Diplomacy (aka Gunboat/ Naval Diplomacy) is not very much recognized as effective foreign policy tool. Moreover, there seems to be prevalence of misconception about military diplomacy only being able to project coercive power (hard power) and not the benign power (soft power). Whereas the UN deployment of the Armed Forces and the Flag-showing visits by the naval ships are glaring examples of both coercive and benign

134 diplomacy, with at times more tangible and effective impact than the dogmatic diplomatic discourse.

• Lack of comprehensive security and foreign policy breeds differences between the armed forces and MoFA. Military strategy aligned with a sound, contemporary and visionary foreign policy is the impetus and serves as the fulcrum to resolve any crisis through diplomacy and also by military means (‘war is an instrument of policy’ by Clausewitz).

• Lack of joint discourses between the two strategic pillars handicap cordial relationship. More engagement in every opportunity would be very conducive fostering relationship between MoFA and Armed Forces.

• Sea blindness is yet another reason for lack of cooperation and coordination in the maritime domain between different stakeholders. As a nation, we are land-centric and our pursuit to sea is meagre vis- à-vis the prospects and opportunities. The same has also affected the jointness of armed forces and MoFA.

Integrated Approaches to Redress the Caveats

At the backdrop of critical requirement of joint imperatives of Armed Forces and MoFA and to address the divergence and disconnects, a number of integrated approaches are prescribed as under.

Approach 1: Policy Integration - Linking Security and Foreign Policies and Strategies

Concept and Proposed Structure. As the foremost approach, the fundamental necessity is to establish the linkage between the overarching policies and strategies, which is otherwise blurred and needs clarity. The diagrams below will provide some insight on the functional interrelationship specially between foreign, security and maritime policies and strategies. 135 Maritime Security of the Bay of Bengal: Joint Imperatives of Armed Forces and Ministry of Foreign Affairs

Figure 9: Security and Foreign Policy and Strategic Linkage

Source: Author Conceived

Approach 2: Comprehensive Security and Foreign Policy

Mélange-à-Trois Policy. In order to identify the joint imperatives of Armed Forces and MoFA, another essential approach is to ascertain the viability of a comprehensive security and foreign policy (CSFP), as done in many of the countries in the world (e.g. Finland).

Figure 10: Comprehensive Security and Foreign Policy - Mélange-à-Trois

Source: Author Conceived

136 In the figure above, a fusion policy with the tag-line ‘Mélange-à-Trois Policy’ has been developed. Notably, besides security and diplomacy, economy is also embedded in the fusion policy, and reasonably so. In the diagram, the three overlapping circles in the center denote three instruments of power; Political, Military and Economy (RCDS, 2017). Each instrument, as a policy pillar, has a maritime policy objective (Maritime Diplomacy/ Power/Economy) and again embodies certain policy goals as shown in the outer circle. All these maritime policy objectives and goals again converge inwards and support each other making the Mélange-à-Trois policy a perfect fusion of maritime synergy.

Approach 3: Strategy Integration - Maritime Strategy and Diplomacy

‘Cooperative Engagement’ Maritime Strategy. Taking cue from the Mélange-à-Trois policy framework, deriving the policy objectives and goals, a model of maritime security strategy architecture with the tag-line ‘Cooperative Engagement’ has been developed as shown below.

Figure 11: Maritime Security Strategy Architecture

Source: Author Conceived

137 Maritime Security of the Bay of Bengal: Joint Imperatives of Armed Forces and Ministry of Foreign Affairs

Here, both the strategic paradigms (derived from Mélange-à-Trois policy objectives and goals) and strategic determinants (strategic vision) serve as the foundation of the maritime strategy architecture. As a rallying point, a proposed maritime strategic vision for Bangladesh could be, “Develop a secure and prosperous maritime Bangladesh”. The three pillars namely Diplomatic, Military and Economy support the strategic achievable (strategic objectives or ends) and the deliverables (means and ways).

Below a depiction of the interlinked maritime strategic ends, ways and means has been put together to complement the necessity cooperative engagement maritime security strategy. The three ends (strategic objectives) derived from the strategic vision namely; maritime security, prosperity and influence necessitate the ways and means (in terms of military, diplomacy and economy) to be calibrated to achieve optimum synergistic effect.

Figure 12: Cooperative Engagement Maritime Strategy

Source: Developed by Author

Approach 4: Naval Diplomacy as Instrument of Foreign Policy – Joint Discourse

Naval diplomacy is extensively used by maritime nations to consolidate relationships with seagoing allies and partners, wins friends among neutrals, and faces down prospective antagonists. Skillfully executed, it could even give rise to cooperation and avoid misunderstanding. Port calls by naval

138 ships have been the principal tools of naval diplomacy. In a recent Oped in Foreign Policy Post, Professor James R Holmes argued for policy of “Speak softly and carry a big ship” in referring to the dilemma of sending carrier strike group to visit Chinese port (James, 2015).

For a medium maritime nation like Bangladesh, port calls by BN ships can be associated with humanitarian support following natural disasters, diplomatic overture as a prelude to some national bargain, or simply good will to friendly communities including overseas Bangladeshis. Properly calibrated, it can help change mindset of international communities and in some cases deter small and medium state and non-state actors to ensure maritime security. In that connotation, the naval diplomacy, as an offshoot of maritime diplomacy, can augment the total diplomatic efforts of the country in conjunction with the MoFA.

Approach 5: Key Areas of Joint Intervention

Besides the policy and strategy alignment, a diverse and wide ranging areas where the joint intervention of armed forces and MoFA could yield better outcome in the maritime security domain of Bangladesh through cooperation and collaboration.

• Promoting Multi-lateral Maritime Cooperative Constructs like BIMSTEC.

• Promoting Bi-lateral Maritime Security Cooperation through port calls, naval exercises, dialogues, staff talks, etc.

• Joint Effort Maximizing the Benefit of Military Diplomacy.

• Cross Employment of Policy Advisors in Armed Forces and MoFA.

• Joint Discourses in the form academic and training, dialogues and talks, seminars and symposiums, visits and calls, etc.

139 Maritime Security of the Bay of Bengal: Joint Imperatives of Armed Forces and Ministry of Foreign Affairs

Conclusion

The BoB has spiraled through the time with wax and wane. Strategically, the BoB has been a lacklustre maritime security space that came into eminence in the recent times amidst the shifting paradigms of geostrategic contours andas a ground for realpolitik and competition among the great powers. Geostrategic significance of the bay became noticeable with China’s power projection in the BoB, though not very significant in terms of military presence, but economic interest overture with BRI and MSR lynchpins raised concern to other powers. The US and its allies in the BoB act as a part of greater IPS stratagem to counteract China’s ambition with befitting response. India’s ‘Look East’ and ‘SAGAR’ policies are also to bear the same resistance poised against China. Other regional countries are also striving to do the same under the banner of different security cooperation constructs like ‘the Quad’.

A series of analysis using VUCA model validated posited theories on the geo-strategic perspective of the BoB. As a whole the geostrategic scenario in the BoB is probably a textbook example of VUCA world. The VUCA clearly defines the evolving nature presenting complex and ambiguous state of the strategic environment. VUCA analysis also suggests prevalence of multiplex of forces to escalate the competing and conflicting environment in the bay.

The SWOT analysis suggests a number of challenges and opportunities which could be exploited in terms of collective benefit due to the geographic location between the two giants, India and China. Geo-strategic outlook of the BoB through a trend analysis schematic suggests that there are host of dynamics and strategic shocks (as and when happens) and they will influence the divergent of outcomes; but more likely would be Conflict and Competition. However, the ‘Force Field Analysis’ reinforces that the present strategic environment of the bay (status quo) will persist as there are harmonizing factors to counter any tilting of balance. How long such balance can be maintained, is a difficult presupposition to be made under the VUCA environment.

140 From the security standpoint, the maritime domain is confronted with number of threats, both traditional and non-traditional. The maritime risk repository contour of Bangladesh suggests that our maritime domain can generally be characterized as ‘moderate to high risk’ and render the country as a ‘Soft State’. Bangladesh Armed Forces consider the maritime security threats as critically interrelated to the existence of the country. The Armed Forces of Bangladesh has come a long way from the scratch negotiating an arduous journey, is now capable of projecting credible deterrence. However, the deterrent posture at times suffers from perception deficit.

The paper as a major thrust has exhaustively addressed the joint imperatives of the Armed Forces and the MoFA to integrate their efforts in achieving the maritime security objectives of Bangladesh in the BoB. The research exposed a host of issues, disconnects and deficits between the two instruments. Different approaches have been suggested to address the pitfalls of such deficits in terms of integration. A comprehensive Security and Foreign Policy ‘Mélange-à-Trois’ and a maritime security strategy ‘Cooperative Engagement’ has been developed from a security architecture model. There are also few key areas where joint intervention could upsurge jointness and integration between MoFA and the Armed Forces.

Finally, maritime aspirations of the country have to find its due space in the foreign policy ambit. It has to be recognized that maritime security is not a ‘Zero-Sum Game’ and not an exclusive domain of the Armed Forces. Maritime synergy is the key.

End Notes

1. VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous) are the characteristics of modern strategic dilemmas which requires a different orientation and a set of skills.

2. A navigable body of water (such as a sea) that is open to all nations: freedom of the seas.

141 Maritime Security of the Bay of Bengal: Joint Imperatives of Armed Forces and Ministry of Foreign Affairs

3. Complexity refers to the number of factors that we need to take into account, their variety and the relationships between them. The more factors, the greater their variety and the more they are interconnected, the more complex an environment is.

4. Uncertainty refers to the extent to which we can confidently predict the future. Part of uncertainty is perceived and associated with people’s inability to understand what is going on. Truly uncertain environments are those that don’t allow any prediction, also not on a statistical basis. The more uncertain the world is, the harder it is to predict.

5. Bandwagoning in international relations occurs when a state aligns with a stronger, adversarial power and concedes that the stronger adversary-turned-partner disproportionately gains in the spoils they conquer together. Bandwagoning, therefore, is a strategy employed by states that find themselves in a weak position. (Wikipedia)

6. Force-field analysis is a development in social science. It provides a framework for looking at the factors (forces) that influence a situation, originally social situations. It looks at forces that are either driving movement toward a goal (helping forces) or blocking movement toward a goal (hindering forces). (Wikipedia)

7. The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The theory to explain the disproportionate role of high- profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations.

8. Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS) is a multilateral maritime security initiative undertaken by the Indian Navy in 2008. Currently this forum has 32 members and observers. For further information see: www.ions.global

142 9. French ‘Guerre de Course’ or Commerce raiding is a form of naval warfare used to destroy or disrupt logistics of the enemy on the open sea by attacking its merchant shipping, rather than engaging its combatants or enforcing a blockade against them.

10. The term ‘coercive diplomacy’ – as well as the term ‘gunboat diplomacy’ – denotes a method of the pursuit of foreign policy interests of a state through either the threat to use or the actual use of limited military force.

11. Mélange-à-Trois is a French idiom meaning in English ‘Fusion of Three’

References

1. Amrith, Sunil S. Crossing the Bay of Bengal: The Furies of Nature and the Fortunes of Migrants. Boston: Harverd University Press, 2013.

2. Brewster, D. (2018). Japan is back in the Bay of Bengal, The Lowy Institute, p. 1.

3. Brewster, D. (2014). The Bay of Bengal: India’s growing role as a regional security provider, The Strategist, p. 1.

4. Frank Hoffman, ‘Grand Strategy: the Fundamental Consideration’, Orbis (Fall 2014), p. 474.

5. Islam, S., & Hossain D (2019) Linking Maritime Security with Look East Policy: Policy Imperatives for Bangladesh [Online]. Available at: www.researchgate.net/publication/330513116_Linking_Maritime_ Security_with_Look_East_Policy_Policy_Imperatives_for_ Bangladesh (Accessed: June 13, 2019)

6. Holmes, James R. Speak Softly and Carry a Big Ship: Why Teddy Roosevelt would have sent a carrier strike group to China, Published at Foreign Policy on February 11, 2015.

143 Maritime Security of the Bay of Bengal: Joint Imperatives of Armed Forces and Ministry of Foreign Affairs

7. Kaplan, Robert D. (2019) The Critical Bay of Bengal [Online]. Available at: https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/critical-bay- bengal (Accessed: June 13, 2019)

8. Masud, H. R. MD. Domestic Inputs in Bangladesh Foreign Policy: A Critical Reappraisal, Journal of the Asiatic Society of Bangladesh (Hum.), Vol. 61(2), 2016, pp. 259-281.

9. Nye, J. (2013), Hard, Soft, and Smart Power, Oxford Handbook of Modern Diplomacy, Oxford University Press.

10. Khurana, G. (2004). Maritime security in the Indian Ocean: Convergence plus cooperation equals resonance. Strategic Analysis, 28(3), 411-426.

11. Rahman, A. (2014). Bangladesh-Audacity of Hope. Bangladesh-China cooperation & the security dimensions of the Bay of Bengal. Retrieved March 6, 2019, from https:// my golden bangla.wordpress.com

12. Zaman, Uz, Rashed. (2017) Can Bangladesh turn its burdensome geography into a blessing?. East Asia Forum [Online]. Available at: https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2017/09/01/can-bangladesh-turn- its-burdensome-geography-into-a-blessing/ (Accessed: June 13, 2019)

13. Xavier. C. et al. “The Bay of Bengal as a new Strategic Space” Round Table Event organized by Carnegie India, 07 Feb 2017, New Delhi.

Author

Commodore Mir Ershad Ali received his Naval Officer’s basic course from Germany and Gunnery Specialization Course from India. He is a graduate of Defence Services Command and Staff College, Mirpur and also received his Masters in Defence Studies (MDS) from National University, Dhaka. He is also an alumnus of the German Staff College (Fuhrungsakademie der Bundeswehr), where he was adjudged to be the best officer of the course and was awarded the prestigious ‘Scharnhorst Award’. Commodore

144 has completed the coveted NDC course in 2019 and is a Fellow of the National Intelligence University of the USA.

Commodore Ershad held a blend of command and staff appointments. He served in different capacities in the Naval Headquarters, onboard various ships and establishments of Bangladesh Navy. As his career in the navy progressed, he commanded five different types of frontline ships including the flagship of Bangladesh Navy.

Currently the Commodore is pursuing M Phil on Security and Strategic Studies under Bangladesh University of Professionals (BUP). He has keen interests about the Maritime Security of the Indian Ocean, on which he has contributed a number of articles published at home and abroad.

E-mail: [email protected]

145 SPEECH OF 7TH MARCH: POLITICAL DIRECTION TOWARDS INSPIRING THE NATION FOR FREEDOM

Joint Secretary Khan Md. Nurul Amin, ndc

Introduction

The best contribution Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman has offered to his beloved people as a leader is the independence of Bangladesh. It was possible because of his long cherished desire to make himself and his people free from all sorts of subjugation and oppression. When he started his thinking to do something for this deprived community, he reacted in a way that brought a new dimension to his political vision. That gave him unique characteristics of a political leader having insight of extraordinary thought. Ensuring rights of the people always encouraged him to challenge the establishment. His challenging attitude for the people’s right compelled him to follow a new path different from the other politicians of the then political arena. This led him to a mission which was toughest for a leader to achieve. As a challenging character he loved the toughest way to walk for his followers. That missionary zeal which was his inherent quality took him to a new height. His commitment and devotion for his people is unquestionable. Actually combination of both wisdom and emotion made possible for him to become the Father of the Nation of Bangladesh.

Bengal could not experience independence for more than thousand years. It is to be cited here that King Shashanka created the first independent political entity in the Bengal region of the indian subcontinent in 7th century AD (590 AD and 625 AD). After that, more than thousand years have passed under the foreign rule and suppression, marginalization went on. Rulers from several areas came here for extraction of resources

146 ignoring the welfare of the Bangali community. As a result they remained impoverished, suffered from diseases without treatment, and could not have their own economy.

King Gopal ruled Bengal from 750 AD to 770 AD as the founder of the Paul Dynasty of Bengal. He is the elected head of the state in the history of democracy in the world as he was elected as the king by a group of area head of clan. Bengal has the heritage of practicing democracy and tolerance. But Pakistani rulers started tyranny to rule the Bengal.

At one crucial stage of historical juncture, in a political programme at that time, he had to deliver a speech to his countrymen. That speech called the historic 7th March speech, 1971 of the Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. In that speech he has given the clarion call for independence and at the same time carefully avoided all kinds of irrational provocation and yet charted out a full course of movement for independence filling it with brave, courageous and wisely emotional words. People followed his order and Bangladesh achieved its independence.

Background

The speech of the Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman of 7 March, 1971 is the milestone in the history of Bangladesh. That was comprehensive and full of proper directions for the suppressed people of East Bengal to move forward for their next steps to attain life free from subjugation and oppression. It gave the guidelines to the people of that time to fight for their right. After the landslide victory of national election of 1970 Awami League should get the right to form government of the then Pakistan. But the military rulers out rightly rejected that authority of the Awami League. Consequently, mass people started agitation. Military junta opened fire upon the innocent and unarmed people which turned into one of the worst kind of genocide in the contemporary history of the world. At that time, Father of the nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman as the leader of the majority party needed to come front and give

147 Speech of 7th March: Political Direction Towards Inspiring the Nation for Freedom decision to the people. In that context, he delivered a speech to a enormous gathering of Ramna Race Course on 07 March, 1971. That was the decisive public speech he delivered before being captivated by the military ruler of Pakistan. This speech is popularly known as the Gettysburg address of twentieth century. The speech was undocumented until it was delivered. It was the Father of the nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman who drafted the speech in his mind just before delivering those words. Surprisingly that speech covered all required areas essential for that time with due references and appropriate words and emotions with accurate art of expressions. It was his state of mind of that time which he shared with his beloved citizens who he led at that time was the mastermind of the speech. He was such a well versed leader that he could express all words of his followers without any written document and preparation that peoples found their words in utterance of Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. That was the charisma of Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman.

Problem Statement

Speech of 7th March has got various significance for its multidimensional qualities. In this speech Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman discussed the politics carefully but shortly and was able to give all the necessary future directions to his followers. He used suitable words in appropriate places of his address. Even his body language gave those words perfect meaning which his countrymen required to understand. For that proper communication people from all strata declared their common understanding to their beloved leader from their own level. His speech contains both political acumen and a right blend of emotional imperative. This blending helped him to make his people understand that they are to fight for their independence. His speech was mainly the direction of his political ambitions towards freedom due to deprivation of fundamental political rights of his citizens. Political directions towards inspiring the nation for freedom was tried to find out.

148 No study has been done before on the political direction towards independence of the 7th March speech of the Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. This study focused on following points:

• Policy Outcome: Policy directions tried to draw from this research. The 7th March speech of the Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman has got various philosophical and political importance. It contains philosophy, politics and policy directions for the independence of Bangladesh. The very spirit of the speech gives guidelines for independent Bangladesh. Those are specifically chalked out in the study.

• Knowledge Enhancement: The speech of 7th March 1971 of the Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman has the extraordinary quality which can enhance our knowledge related to our language, culture, political philosophy, future guidelines for independent nation. It is an endeavor to bring out those from in-depth study.

• Resolving Controversies: The speech of 7th March does have specific orders for the Bangalis. There were no confusion about it. But some critics may find some controversies in the content of the speech. Those controversies were tried resolve.

• Research Audience: This research is for all types of audience; but it is basically meant for the analytical minds who love to explore the truth.

Objective

• To academically explore the political, philosophical and operational and it’s surrounding contexts of the speech of 07 March, 1971 by the Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman towards the formation and consolidation of the Bangladesh state.

149 Speech of 7th March: Political Direction Towards Inspiring the Nation for Freedom

• To examine the speech of 07 March, 1971of the Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman to find out political directions towards inspiring the nation for freedom.

Literature Review

The speech of seven March of the Father of the Nation Banbandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman is one of the greatest speech of the world. This speech inspired the Bangali nation of all strata to participate in the liberation war for achieving our independence. They fought without considering any kind of personal gain. It was the independence for which freedom loving nation came out for war of independence whatever they had as arms motivated by the Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. This speech made all the people of Bangladesh united other than a few. This kind of speech is rare in the history of the world. There are several speeches identified as the political milestone for several reasons in the world’s history.

One of the Best Speech in the History

Jacob F. Field, a British writer and historian wrote a book named “We shall fight on the beaches: The speeches that inspired History”. It is a collection of extracts from the most inspirational and rousing speeches of war time from the globe of last 2500 years. This book is to inspire and inflame the reader for independence. In that book the speech 7th March of the Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman has been included with the title “This time the struggle for our freedom.” together with the speech of world famous leaders such as Pericles, Alexander, Hannibal, Julius Caesar, Saladin, Napoleon, Garibaldi, Abraham Lincoln, Vladimir Illyich Ulyanov Lenin, Adlof Hitler, Winston Churchill, Mao Zedong, Joseph Stalin, Ho Chi Minh, and so on (Field, 2013). This is a worldwide recognition of this speech.

150 Recognition from UNESCO

The speech of 07 March, 1971of the Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman has covered the major part of the history of Bangladesh. Due to its extraordinary quality it drew attention of the people of the world. On 30 October 2017, The UNESCO has recognized the historic 7th March Speech of Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman as part of the world’s documentary heritage (UNESCO, Memory of the World, 2017).

The Memory of the World Register of the UNESCO lists documentary heritage of the world which has been commended by the International Advisory Committee. The Director General of UNESCO endorsed it as corresponding to the selection criteria regarding outstanding universal value and world significance. Through this procedures the historic speech of 7th March of the Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman has been included in the Memory of the World Register of the UNESCO on October 30 in 2017 titled “This time the struggle for our freedom”. This is how the speech of the 7th March has become the asset of the global community due to its extraordinary quality (UNESCO, Memory of the World, 2017).

Ralph Waldo Emerson (May 25, 1803 – April 27, 1882) said that speech is power, speech is to persuade, to convert, to compel. That is what the speech of the Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman did on the very 7 March, 1971. It was such a motivating and powerful and for heart touching that this one speech had united the whole Bangali nation to come into a single platform to give an appropriate response to the Pakistani military dictatorship for their atrocities. On the basis of his directions of this speech our glorious Liberation War started to achieve independent Bangladesh in 1971. The liberation of Bangladesh has no comparable event in the records of human civilization which started at that clarion call of the Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. It is to be mentioned here no country of Indian sub-continent needed to

151 Speech of 7th March: Political Direction Towards Inspiring the Nation for Freedom go for all-out war for independence. The magnetism, determination and vision of the Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman could inspire millions of people of the country by his gifted fiery and courageous speech to fight for the independence at the cost of their life even. His very speech could touch the heart of the people and motivate them to follow his direction.

Poet of Politics

Probably that was the reason to term Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman as ‘Poet of Politics’ by the international magazine ‘Newsweek’ in its cover story of its 05 April 1971 issue for this world famous revolutionary speech.

The speech of 7th March has multidimensional explanation and evaluation. Intellectuals, academicians, statesmen have supported by various kinds of statements about this historic speech. “This 7th March Speech is one of the best speeches in the world, which is quite exceptional and different from that of any great world leaders,” Her excellency Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina said while addressing a seminar on the historic 7th March Speech in the Dhaka city on March 09, 2018. She also said that the speech was a full guideline for the Liberation War, and freedom fighters drew inspiration by listening to it during the nine months of war (The Daily Star, 2019).

Relevant Famous Speeches of the World

There are four speeches which inspired people much in the world.

1. The funeral oration of a distinguished politician of Athens named Pericles.

2. Abraham Lincoln’s Gettysburg address

152 3. Speech of Winston Churchill during the Second World War

4. The speech named ‘I have a dream’ of Martin Luther King Junior These four speeches inspired people but not like the speech of 7th March of the Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman though these four speeches are time tested, well-entertained and honoured by the civilization of the globe.

• The Funeral Oration of Athens by Pericles

The funeral oration of a distinguished politician of Athens by Pericles, powerful and a prominent Greek statesman, military general and orator of Athens during its golden age, specially the time amid the Persian and Peloponnesian wars, is famous in history. It is found in the History of the Peloponnesian War of Thucydides. It was delivered 2500 years ago after the first year of the end of the Peloponnesian war in 431 BC. The address was the part of the yearly public funeral for the heroes died in the war. Pericles praised those warriors for their sacrifice and glorified their contributions for the community (Gregory, 1998).

This speech was not also the speech for independence or this speech did not led the people to the war of liberation. It was the speech for the slain brave soldiers. It could not involve people to be committed to earn independence for the country against the subjugation of autocratic and imperialistic rulers like the speech of 7th March of the Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman.

• Gettysburg address by Abraham Lincoln

Abraham Lincoln (February 12, 1809 – April 15, 1865), the 16 President of the United States of America delivered a speech on November 19, 1863 at soldier’s national cemetery for union soldiers who were killed in the American civil war at the battle of Gettysburg. This speech is known as Gettysburg address. The famous quote of the speech is “Fourscore and

153 Speech of 7th March: Political Direction Towards Inspiring the Nation for Freedom seven years ago our fathers brought forth on this continent, a new nation, conceived in Liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal.” Another line is also now a days frequently used to refer to democracy- Government of the people, by the people and for the people. The speech said very much in so tiny space. It was a written and well drafted one and crafted by a set of experienced and professional people (Barton, 1950).

Gettysburg address was not the speech for the liberation war nor was it the speech which led to the war of independence. There is the basic difference between the Gettysburg address and the 7th March speech of the Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman.

But the speech of 7th March has got some extra ordinary quality such as it was not written speech. Not drafted by any expert in consideration of language, politics and audience analysis. It is the father of the nation who crafted the speech after being taken to the dais in his mind following the demand of the people and circumstances. As he was the people’s leader he could understand the pulse of the mammoth gathering there and the demand of the situation created by the autocratic ruler of the then Pakistan.

• We Shall Fight on the Beaches by Winston Churchill

In Second World War, allied forces were facing severe defeat by Hitler’s soldiers and somehow reached to England through Dunkirk of France. At that time prime minister of England Winston Churchill delivered a speech in British Parliament to revitalize the people for fighting against enemies. The speech really helped to boost up moral of the demoralized soldiers as well as the citizens of the Great Britain to challenge the war and regain its position in the hard power of world politics (Maguire, 2014).

But after the speech of their prime minister they found their moral so high and they could snatch the win. It was a well-rehearsed speech and repetition was a powerful device in Winston Churchill’s voice. He used poetic language to create the urge to the fighting soldiers in the front.

154 No superfluous enunciation was there in the speech other than essential arguments in the speech of 7 March. Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman did not use any poetic language or any emotional melodramatic tone. Only the hard truth he pronounced with forceful expression along with logic, argument and explanation. There were no annoying repetition and hesitations in forming words in total speech. He alone could make it possible to deliver such direction-giving, unostentatious, poetic speech without any discontinuity and without taking any support from written script standing in front of the sea of people.

• I have a Dream by Martin Luther king

Martin Luther King Junior delivered a speech on August 28, 1963 for the commemoration of the march on Washington for jobs and freedom. He called for civil and economic rights of coloured people of the USA because he wanted end of racism there. It is one of the remarkable lecture in the world’s history. It was a well-researched speech. He delivered the speech to over 250,000 civil rights activists from the step of the Lincoln Memorial in Washington, D.C. during the civil right movement of America (Hansen, 2003).

The speech of 7th March was fundamentally created in the mind of and articulated by the Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman during the speech and inspired the nation for freedom. Father of the nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman delivered the speech to make the people free from oppression and independent.

Speech of Pericles, Abraham Lincoln, Winston Churchill and Martin Luther King did not urge people to participate in the war of independence and fight for emancipation against subjugation. Nor these speeches inspired and directed the people for independence and emancipation. In that sense the speech of 7th March has got a unique feature. On the clarion call of 7 March, 1971 of the Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman people of Bangladesh went out for an all-out

155 Speech of 7th March: Political Direction Towards Inspiring the Nation for Freedom war for independence at the cost of their life even. The speech of 7th March could unite 70 million people to sacrifice their lives for their right of independence and achieved long cherished independence. That is the sharp distinction between any other speeches of the leaders of the world. He specifically directed the countrymen to be ready with whatever they had and get prepared for freedom struggle. At the end of the speech he said “This time the struggle for the emancipation and this time the struggle for the independence.” The speech of the father of the nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman has the political wisdom and acumen to guide the nation for liberation war.

Methodology

• Thematic Content Analysis: As the study would be confined within the analysis of the text of the speech of 7th March of the Father of the nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. Thematic Content analysis was the foremost method followed during study to analysis every dimensions of the historic speech.

• Study of the Relevant Secondary Literature: Relevant literatures such as books, journals, magazines, newspapers was studied to find out expected outcome of the research.

• Key Informants Interview: Interview key informants such as professors of universities, concerned officers related to politics of the Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, valiant freedom fighters, historians, researchers and academics were made.

Findings

• Speech of 7 March, 1971 is the milestone of the liberation war of Bangladesh.

156 • Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman has motivated the people to fight for independence of this country and gave proper directives by his breakthrough speech of 7 March, 1971 • The declaration of independence of Bangladesh was not a Unilateral Declaration of Independence. Because Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman has seen the failures of Rhodesia and Biafra struggle in Nigeria due to Unilateral Declaration of Independence. • Declaration of independence by the Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman was the announcement with technically and tactically absolutely sound and appropriate strategies, otherwise he would have been taken into task by the autocratic military rulers of Pakistan of that time for sedition. It is to be mentioned here that Ramna race course was surrounded by the military people in civil dress and in uniform where he delivered the speech on that very day. These military forces were ready to take actions against the Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman on that day. But for statesmanship and political wisdom of this great leader they could not get any chance to do anything against him. • The Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman effectively declared independence of Bangladesh in his historic speech of 7 March, 1971 by saying at the end of the speech “Our struggle, this time, is a struggle for our freedom. Our struggle, this time, is a struggle for our independence. Joy Bangla!” • Little research has been done on the speech of 7th March of the Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman.

Recommendations

• Basically the 7th March speech of the Father of the Nation Bnagabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman steered and inspired the nation

157 Speech of 7th March: Political Direction Towards Inspiring the Nation for Freedom

to the independence of Bangladesh. For that valid ground 7th March should be recognized nationally by the government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh.

• The day of 7th March should be celebrated nationwide as national day by the government with due solemnity and fervor every year.

• People of Bangladesh should assemble every March 07 at the Suhrawardy Uddyan (Erstwhile Rama Race course) to revitalize Bangalis in the spirit of the Liberation War.

• Spirit of 7th March should be validated in every helm of affairs in the national activities.

• The day of 7th March can be termed as national day with the name of ‘Bangladesh Day’ or ‘the day of emancipation’ or ‘the day of renaissance.’

• “Until lions have their own historians, tale of hunt will always glorify the hunter.” This often cited African proverb is to be kept in mind for continuous research and publications on the speech of 7 March, 1971.

Discussion Exploration of the Speech of 7th March and Its Characteristic Features

Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, a statesman who has earned confidence of his followers of all levels of the geographical region at a highest level that gave practical directions and proper motivation for the independence in the speech of 7 March. That was authoritative delivery initiated from the core of his heart with due references of political activities and facts. He explained the audience about upcoming movements, work plan and guidelines which was inspiring and encouraging. People’s judgments and expectations were articulated in his

158 speech in such a way that they could express their loyalty with the future initiative and directions. The pointer of the father of the nation which showed the way of independence for this nation on 7 March, 1971 in Ramna race course was the appropriate finger showed proper direction for the people’s confidence to move forward.

Everybody on Board

The Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahan started his speech of 7th March by addressing the mammoth gathering of the then Race Course of Ramna, Dhaka by saying “Brothers of mine.” The particular term gave him the nearness to the people of this soil. He came down to the level of his followers without keeping any distance from the followers. Peoples of Bangladesh were enthusiastically waiting for a speech from their trusted leader. When that very leader started speaking to his men, he uttered the closest words which they wanted to hear from him and could take everyone on board.

A Glimpse on the Basic Content

Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman started his speech addressing the mammoth audience by calling them “Brothers of mine” which helped him to be the closest one to the heart of the people. His fiery and charismatic deliberation with smart selection of words, diplomacy and guiding principles made the people spell bound. He did not prolong the speech by using unnecessary or very formal words. Utterance of words remained within the understandable limit of the listeners which was between 58 to 60 words within a minute. Generally 60 words per minute is considered as an ideal expression for an orator. He took only 19 minutes to finish his everlasting speech and used only 1,107 words. This is the shortest speech ever delivered by the Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. It is to be mentioned here that neither he had script nor he took preparation what to be told in front of

159 Speech of 7th March: Political Direction Towards Inspiring the Nation for Freedom the political mass gathering of 7th March in the Ramna racecourse. It was very much apprehended that he would take time for articulation and repeat some words. Amazingly there were no irritating repetitions in the speech and there were no unnecessary articulations. In his speech father of the nation told only the gist and core points with required references. Nevertheless, he used repetition in one or two times but it did not hamper the beauty of the continuation of the speech rather that repetition helped emphasize the deepest meaning of the speech.

Surprisingly, the speech of 7th March was not written. No superfluous enunciation was there in the speech other than essential arguments. Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman did not use any poetic language or any emotional melodramatic tone. Only the hard truth he pronounced with forceful expression along with logic, argument and explanation. There were no annoying repetition and hesitations in forming words in total speech. He alone could make it possible to deliver such direction-giving, unostentatious, poetic speech without any discontinuity and without taking any support from written script standing in front of the sea of people.

Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman used standard Bangla with skill in many other parts of his speech. And he could organize his words in such striking sentences.

Father of the nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman had a magnificent voice that could also hypnotize the gathering.

Pakistan, a Shattered Dream

Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman could never accept Pakistan for a single day though he participated in Pakistan movement. In the middle of 1947 Bangabandhu called a meeting with his friends in Calcutta in his room of Siraj ud Dowla hall. There he said “Pakistan is coming into being but this liberation is not liberation in true sense. Perhaps we have to start our struggle for independence in the soil of Bengal (Islam, 2002)”.

160 State Acquisition and Tenancy Act, 1950 and the History

Leaders of East Bengal allowed their farmers to have their ownership over their land after the promulgation of State Acquisition and Tenancy Act, 1950. Because it was slogan that tillers would be owners of land. This action of the political leaders of East Bengal created panic in the mind of the land lords such as Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, the ‘Jamindar’ of Larkana, Sindh of West Pakistan. Most of the Zaminders of West Pakistan were dead against creating any law as such in the West Pakistan. Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman was highly committed to ensure rights of the marginalized people of Pakistan. Those Zamindars and Land owners of West Pakistan that is why did not want to give state power to the elected leader of the majority party of Pakistan the Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. That is one of the major reasons, they started conspiring with military rulers to refrain him from being the prime minister of Pakistan. It is found that the Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman was the first Bengali Muslim politician to come into national prominence from a middle-class background.

Political Master Class

There may be debate about the idea of a pre-emptive war against a defensive war. He did what was the best for Bangalis. There were young leaders who were ready to jump into the battleground and start their struggle for independence. On March 07, 1971 Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman did a political double. With the last sentence of his speech, he gave the de-facto positive indication to the young student leaders for preparation of armed struggle if needed be, whilst simultaneously prioritizing a non-violent means to end the subsequent crisis. Which meant a political solution. That was a political master class from Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. But once again, it is vital to recap, that historical evidence

161 Speech of 7th March: Political Direction Towards Inspiring the Nation for Freedom suggests that Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman did not want mothers to lose their sons in the battle ground, he did not want to allow Bangali children as orphans. He tried his best to prevent a war. Not only that, he would have remembered the problems faced by the Unilateral Declaration of Independence of Rhodesia on 11 November 1965. It faced a lot of problems together with sanction imposed by United Nations and big powers such as the United Kingdom. In 1967, a unilateral declaration of independence made by Biafra for the Igbo societies who dominate southeast Nigeria. That created a brutal civil war with central forces that lasted 30 months.

It is to be mentioned here that at the time of delivering the speech of 7th March Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman was then the elected leader of the majority party of Pakistan both central and provincial government of the then Pakistan.

Political Directions Towards Inspiring Nation for Independence

Father of the nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman has given necessary directions to his people by his landmark speech of 7th March for independence of Bangladesh. He said to his beloved Bangalis “Remember: having mastered the lesson of sacrifice, we shall give more blood. In Sha Allah (By the will of almighty Allah), we shall be able to free the people of this land.” Because he was sure that “you cannot keep seventy million people in bondage.”

Heart to Heart

When he said ‘Bhayera amar’ means brothers of mine and ‘Amar manush’ means my people, audience found no distance from their leader. As a result, people participated the war of independence as directed by the leader on 7 March. The art of oratory took special place in the speech. The eloquence

162 was one of the major defining qualities of this great leader. That is the reason, why we feel that 19 minutes speech of 7th March lasted for a moment only. But that speech narrated whatever the audience required as guidelines. Every sound uttered by him expressed the political emotions of Bangali nation. He said in the beginning of the speech “Apnara shobi janen, ebong bojhen” means “you know and understand everything.” By saying this he acknowledged and showed respect to the wisdom of the people. After that he described the background and injected strong emotions for the general welfare of the mass people which involved audience in something beyond greed and egoism. He then established the justifications of the demand for independence by his logical utterance. He resounded the longing of the people for a constitutional government. He also said that the people wanted to get the constitution made for political, economic and cultural emancipation.

He started his speech by saying ‘Apnara’ (Third person singular number in Bangla, formal addressing to someone but there is no similar word in English like this) and after some time he started telling ‘Tumi’ (Third person singular number in Bangla informal addressing to someone but there is similar word in English is ‘you’). His speech continued with both formal and informal addressing. This formal beginning and turning informal tone of expression along with some conversational words gave his speech extra force and beauty. As a result he could quickly touch the heart of his countrymen for highest level of motivation and inspiration. He could efficiently avoid unnecessary repetition other than two places. Those repetitions also gave extra emphasis of the content of the speech. Using suitable words in necessary places took the speech to a new height with appropriacy and authenticity. Somewhere in his speech he said ‘mvZ †KvwU gvbyl‡K `vev‡q ivL‡Z cviev bvÕ| ‘(You cannot keep seventy million people in bondage)’. ‘`vev‡q’ is a word generally used in his native area of Gopalgonj to express bondage. This word is not generally used in standard Bangla. For the special use of this word his expression has got a new dimension. This is how he added so many beauty spots in the historic 7th March speech. He was well versed in standard Bangla. But in public speaking he 163 Speech of 7th March: Political Direction Towards Inspiring the Nation for Freedom used some colloquial words to give force to the speech and to bring a new aspects along with proximity to the audience.

Her Excellency Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina said while addressing a seminar on the historic 7th March Speech in Dhaka on March 09, 2018 that the speech was a full guideline for the Liberation War, and freedom fighters drew inspiration by listening to it during the nine months of war (Daily Star, 2019).

Clarion Call for Independence

The speech of seven March is full of directives and depths which instructed Bangalis to fight with whatever we have’ said by the National Professor and Professor Emeritus of the University of Dhaka Dr. Anisuzzaman, who was awarded Bharot Ratna for his outstanding contribution to the people of this country. Professor Anisuzzaman said that ‘There was no time to look back, there was no scope to imagine the failure.’ At some moment there might be no one to guide he also said to create every house a fortress. Enemy is already identified and to fight against the enemy if everyone comes together to fight enemy would be defeated and victory would be confirmed. Father of the Nation knew that the people of Bangladesh expects from him in 7th March speech the declaration of independence. But he also knew the consequence of Unilateral Declaration of Independence (UDI).

Father of the Nation Bangbandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman was a true patriot. He was unquestionably the only person capable enough to clamorously inspire the country towards independence. Speech of 7th March, 1971 by the Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman speaks volumes of the altruism and skill he had as a political leader. It can be remembered here that during the war of liberation, Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman was the demi god to the freedom loving people of Bangladesh. They offered prayers to the creator in mosques, temples, churches, pagodas and all religious places of

164 warship. Following lines of his speech help understand the clarion call for independence of Bangladesh by the Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman: I ask my people to immediately set up committees under the leadership of the Awami League to carry on our struggle in every neighbourhood, village, union and subdivision of this land. You must prepare yourselves now with what little you have for the struggle ahead. Since we have given blood once, we will give more of it. But, Insha’Allah, we will free the people of this land! The struggle this time is the struggle for emancipation. The struggle this time is the struggle for independence. Joy Bangla. So, it can be said that Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s historic 7 March, 1971 speech has effectively declared independence of Bangladesh and inspired people for freedom.

Conclusion

Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman is the great leader under whose able leadership Bangladesh fought for all-out war of independence and achieved its long-cherished freedom. The speech of 7th March is the foundation of the independence of Bangladesh. Basically, the speech of 7th March of the Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman motivated and directed the nation to the independence of Bangladesh. The speech of 7th March was skillfully crafted by the father of the nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. It was a realistic documentation of how the disappointment of post-colonial nation-states isolates their population belonging to different linguistic, cultural, religious, ethnic groups to develop inclusive, democratic society. The implications of

165 Speech of 7th March: Political Direction Towards Inspiring the Nation for Freedom the speech of 7th March is never-ending in the history of the independence of Bangladesh. He delivered an epic making speech to the huge audience delineating responsibilities and activities of the Bangalis in the event of attack by the Pakistan Armed Forces for independence. And this speech keeps inspiring the Banglalis generation after generation.

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13. Sen, Amartya (2007), Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman memorial book-2, Joytsna Publishers, Dhaka, Bangladesh, p. 611.

14. Siddique, A A M S Arefin (2019), The Greatest Speech of the Greatest Bangali, available at http://www.bangladoot.se/information%20 folder/articles%20on%20Bangabandhu%20by%20arefin%20 siddique.pdf accessed on 08/06/2019 at 12.26pm

15. Sikder, Sam Sundor, (2017), Bangabandhur Sate Marcher Bhason Epic of Politics [7th March Speech of Bangabandhu Epic of Politics], ICT Division, Dhaka, Bangladesh.

16. Tharoor, Shisha (2016), An era of darkness: the British empire in India, P. 4, Aleph Book company, New Delhi, India.

17. The Daily Star, Bangabandhu’s March 07 speech quite different from other world great leaders’: PM, available on https://www.thedailystar.

167 Speech of 7th March: Political Direction Towards Inspiring the Nation for Freedom

net/country/bangabandhu-march-7-speech-quite-different-other- world-great-leaders-pm-1545865 accessed on 15/05/2019 at 06.18pm 18. The News Today (2017), available on http://newstoday.com.bd/ index.php?option=details&news_id=2478626&date=2017-08-14, accessed on 01/06/2019 at 08.41am 19. United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Heritage (2017), Memory of the World, http://www.unesco.org/new/en/ communication-and-information/memory-of-the-world/register/full- list-of-registered-heritage/registered-heritage-page-4/the-historic-7th- march-speech-of-bangabandhu-sheikh-mujibur-rahman/, accessed on 19/04/2019 at 10.51 am

Author

Khan Md. Nurul Amin is a Joint Secretary of the Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh. He has joined Bangladesh Civil Service 11 batch in Administration Cadre on 1st April 1993 as an Assistant Commissioner. He served in the field administration and policy level in various capacities. He also worked as one of the Director Generals of Anti-Corruption Commission, Bangladesh.

Mr. Khan has acquired Master of Arts in Mass Communication and Journalism from the University of Dhaka, Bangladesh. He has achieved MSc in Business and Financial Economics from the University of Greenwich, London, United Kingdom. He has also attained Master of Arts in Governance and Development from the BRAC University, Bangladesh where he was awarded gold medal for obtaining highest CGPA. He is now doing MPhil in the Bangladesh University of Professionals.

Mr. Khan is an adjunct faculty of the Department of Development Studies of the University of Dhaka, Bangladesh. He has the experience of conducting training sessions on various topics in different training institutes both in government and non-government sector.

168 He has the firsthand experience of preparing ‘Formalin Control Act, 2015’ while working in the Ministry of Commerce; experience of preparing ‘Chattogram Medical University Act, 2016’, ‘Rajshahi Medical University Act, 2016’, ‘Sylhet Medical University Act, 2018’ while working in the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. He actively participated several major policy making decisions of Bangladesh. He was also involved in Banking reforms of the government when he was working in the Financial Institutions Division of Ministry of Finance.

Email: [email protected]

169 AN AUDIT OF THE JIGSAW - INDIA’S ‘ACT EAST’ AND THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA’S ‘INDO-PACIFIC’

Commodore Rajiv Ashok, ndc

Introduction

Regions are basically strategic constructs and rely on the process of recognition and membership acceptance which makes their contours potentially fluid. This goes to show that, while some regions may be ‘inherently obvious’ they need to have a grounding in economic and institutional strategic reality to progress beyond rhetorical statements of ‘vision’. With the Obama administration’s ‘Pivot to Asia’ closely followed by President Trump’s ‘Indo-Pacific Strategy’, the region has gained strategic significance especially at a time when China is deploying her maritime might and (arguably) as fading superpower (USA) is reasserting itself. A close ally of the USA, Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has been pushing the concept to its present state of evolution as she traditionally shares adversarial relations with her neighbour, China. Australia as a major US ally, has had mixed reactions to the US initiative given their deep trade relations with China and Australia wishes for a peaceful Indo-Pacific. Australia also sees this as an opportunity for greater engagement with the ASEAN and India.

India’s economy opened up in the 1990’s and due to geo-political reasons decided to ‘Look East’. The transformation in the policy however came about with a change of Government in the India to the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by Shri Narendra Modi and (probably) a little nudge from the then US Secretary of State, Mrs Hillary Clinton. In 2014, India appreciated the economic and strategic potential of engaging with her closest neighbours Bangladesh, Myanmar and with ASEAN which made it switch gears to the ‘Act East’ Policy.

170 The aim of the article is to undertake an audit of India’s ‘Act East’ Policy and the United States of America’s ‘Indo-Pacific’ Strategy to better understand the dynamics of the region including the convergence and divergence of the policies. Further, some recommendations on what India needs to do more to promote her national interests have also been articulated.

India’s Perceived Obligation towards Leadership

India has historically exerted considerable cultural influence over East and Southeast Asia. The first Prime Minister of India, Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru felt that India was obligated to use its capacity as the first Asian state to achieve liberation to assist other Asian states to do the same. This led to India asserting for leadership role in major diplomatic meetings focused on anti-colonialism such as the Conference on Asian Relations in March 1947, the 1949 Conference on Indonesia in New Delhi and the 1955 Bandung Conference of the non-aligned countries (Lavina, 2015).

171 An Audit of the Jigsaw – India’s ‘Act East’ and the United States of America’s ‘Indo-Pacific’

However thereinafter, New Delhi’s broader pan-Asian ambitions were hijacked by the constraints of the Cold War and (unanticipated) problems with its immediate neighbours. After formally recognizing China’s sovereignty over Tibet (Panchashila Agreement) in 1954, and lobbying for China’s admission to the UNSC, the country was caught off-guard by China’s invasion on its Northern and NE border areas in 1962. India’s humiliating loss in the conflict led to the need of developing strong military capabilities.

Pakistan at this stage was a formal ally of the western security umbrella as a member of the 1954 South East Asian Treaty Organization (SEATO) and the 1955 Central Treaty Organization (CENTO) which were eventually dissolved in 1977 and 1979 respectively. However, as they were both in force in the 1971 conflict with India, USA provided support to Pakistan to send a reassuring signal to other partners about the western commitment (Mishra, 2015).

This action by the United States pushed India towards the Soviet Union which led to the signing of the Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation in August 1971. This included an obligation of supporting each other in case of an aggression by a third party. The Soviet’s upheld their side of the bargain during the Bangladesh liberation war in 1971 on multiple levels; warding off Chinese involvement on Pakistan’s side, vetoing US-sponsored UN resolutions aimed at supporting Pakistan, and sending two nuclear powered submarines to the Bay of Bengal in response to the dispatch of USS Enterprise (Kothari, 2019).

India stayed out of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations created in 1967 which was viewed as set-up under the aegis of USA. With Asian loyalties divided along Cold War lines, India’s ability to exert leadership in the region based on a common ‘Asian identity’ fell into disarray as did her economic connections. As a consequence of these policies, for almost four decades after independence, India suffered from a per capita GDP growth per year averaged about 1.3% (Lavina, 2015).

172 Things began to change with the collapse of the Soviet Union and China rising as an economy to reckon with. Overcoming the set-backs and challenges thrown her way, India today stands at the cusp of greatness. As the world’s largest democracy and a responsible one, India has a nuclear arsenal with a clear policy of ‘No First Use’. India’s space programme is well ahead of its times and arguably amongst the best in the world. India is also a rising economic and military power which many States wish to court. As a nation with a large, bright and youthful population, India must endeavour to use all peaceful means to reach her rightful place at the high table. The country not only has the right but also a duty to play the role of a responsible world player.

India’s ‘Act East’ Policy

After a start in early 1990s and transformation in 2014, the key principles and objectives of the ‘Act East’ Policy have expanded beyond economic interests to promote cultural ties while developing strategic relationship through continuous engagement at bilateral, regional and multilateral levels. This also meets the aim of providing enhanced connectivity to India’s North Eastern States with other countries in our neighbourhood (Ministry of External Affairs, India, 2018). The newly set-up Indo-Pacific division in the Ministry of External Affairs gives a coherent architecture to the policy, which was articulated by PM Narendra Modi at the Shangri- La Dialogue in 2018. The division will integrate the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA), ASEAN region and the Quad to the Indo-Pacific table (Bagchi, 2019). Further, the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS) will undoubtedly continue to play a major role as part of this initiative.

The primary diplomatic aim of the policy was to become embedded in the region’s ASEAN led institutional architecture. This aim has been largely accomplished.

The reasons for India’s entry into the Asian market is twofold, firstly to make the most of the market boom created by Chinese investments and

173 An Audit of the Jigsaw – India’s ‘Act East’ and the United States of America’s ‘Indo-Pacific’ secondly, to ensure that Asian states do not ‘wean away’ from India and become dependent solely upon China. Overall, India’s ‘Act East’ policy has largely achieved integration of markets with the neighbourhood. On the negative side, India has failed to successfully integrate its economy into the region’s manufacturing supply chain to any significant extent (Lavina, 2015).

US ‘Indo-Pacific’ Strategy

In the Fall of 2011, the Obama Administration announced that it would expand and intensify the US role in the Asia-Pacific region, and that “the centre of gravity for US foreign policy, national security, and economic interests is shifting towards Asia”, a move that was later to be labelled as the US ‘Pivot’ or ‘rebalancing’ with respect to Asia (Congressional Research Service, 2012). In addition, Japan and Australia promoted the term ‘Asia Pacific’ through the 1970s and 1980s to draw them closer to the United States and the economically flourishing East Asia. In 2010, the then-US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton spoke about “expanding our work with the Indian Navy in the Pacific, because we understand how important the Indo-Pacific basin is to global trade and commerce”. Notably, while much of her speech maintained the reference to ‘Asia-Pacific’, the term ‘Indo- Pacific’ was used only in reference to naval cooperation with India. In his 2013 posture report to Congress, Admiral Samuel Locklear, the US PACOM Commander, referred to his area of responsibility as the ‘Indo- Asia-Pacific’ (Khurana, 2019).

The United States National Security Strategy (US NSS) document was the first explicit US definition of China predominately as a strategic competitor: “China seeks to displace the US in the Indo-Pacific region, expand the reaches of its state-driven economic model and reorder the region in its favour” (US National Security Strategy, White House, 2017). The USA raised concern against North Korea which is actively pursuing Weapons of Mass Destruction which include nuclear, biological and

174 chemical weapons and has inimical intentions towards the US. Further, the USA is committed to re-energising its relations with the Philippines and Thailand (US National Security Strategy, White House, 2017).

There is a minor to significant difference in the ‘region’ that is described as Indo-Pacific by the players concerned. The US describes the Indo- Pacific Region as that which is the area of responsibility of its Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPAC) based at Hawaii. This area stretches from the waters off the West Coast of United States to the West Coast of India (Department of Defence, USA, 2019). India looks at this region stretching from South Africa to Australia (Singh, 2019).

The Indo-Pacific Strategy is welcome by many players in the region given that the US global military footprint is shrinking rapidly. However, an underlying fear remains that the move may be more of a rhetoric action and not backed by hard power or intention. However, security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region has been increasing steadily over the past decade, in large measure as a response to a bigger Chinese footprint.

The White House has not yet been able to come up with a clear ‘China Policy’ however, pessimism seems to have crept into the thought process. In the latest reaction by the US, a slew of trade tariffs with responding retaliatory tariffs by PRC are playing havoc on world markets.

There has been a fair share of hiccups to the US version of the Indo- Pacific strategy especially with Trump’s ‘America First’ ideology. However, with its USD 25m Maritime Security Initiative (MSI) announced in 2015 the US has been increasingly helping key ASEAN states enhance their respective maritime capabilities (Parameswaran, 2016).

Free and Open Indo Pacific

Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe formally introduced the ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’ (FOIP) strategy on occasion of the Fourth International Conference on African Development (TICAD VI), held in Nairobi in

175 An Audit of the Jigsaw – India’s ‘Act East’ and the United States of America’s ‘Indo-Pacific’

August 2016 (Berkofsky, 2019). Japan has been backing this strategy with both substantial resources and capital with a goal to promote ‘connectivity’ between Asia, the Middle East and Africa. This inherently is aimed at expansion of trade and investment ties through improved infrastructure links.

The Australia-India-Japan-USA Quadrilateral (Quad)

The Quadrilateral framework involving Australia, India, Japan and the USA, originated in 2004 when the four militaries engaged in joint humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) operations after the Boxing Day Indian Ocean tsunami (Satake, 2016). In May 2006, which could be considered its turning point, senior officials from the four States arranged an inaugural Quad meeting on the side-lines of the ARF in Manila to discuss ways to take the four-power relationship forward (Strait Times, 2017). However, positive and negative events followed in 2007. The positive was the Malabar 2007-II exercise in which the four countries plus the Singaporean Navy participated in naval exercises (HADR operations) in the Bay of Bengal. Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd decided to withdraw from the quadrilateral format, which probably weakened the momentum for Quad cooperation. Rudd’s decision was believed to be based on China’s severe criticism of the Quad, and Rudd also decided to stop supplying uranium to India (Indian Navy, 2007).

The quadrilateral cooperation framework was revived again in 2017 after ten-year-long freeze. While the ‘Quad’ has been ambiguous in terms of its strategic objectives, this framework is becoming one of the important elements in geopolitical and geo-economic discussions in the Indo-Pacific region (Hanada, 2016). The revival of the Quad can largely be attributed to the fact that the four governments carefully and steadily shifted their foreign policy priorities in broader East Asia or the Asia-Pacific and developed bilateral and trilateral security cooperation mechanism since 2007 to counter the dominance of China.

176 ‘Acceptance’ of India in East and SE Asia

In the ‘Far East’, India has forged close strategic ties with South Korea and Japan. South Korea and India elevated their relationship to the status of a ‘strategic partnership’ in 2010. In September 2019, India and South Korea have also inked a military logistics agreement which will provide longer sea-legs to the Indian Navy and promote interoperability between the two navies (Financial Express, 2019).

Only two years after India’s 1998 nuclear weapons tests, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori visited India and inaugurated a Japan-India Global Partnership. Diplomatic exchanges between the two countries have expanded at all levels from NSAs to the Prime Minister’s meeting annually. In September 2014, Japan and India elevated their relationship to that of a ‘special strategic and global partnership’ for “advancing peace, stability and prosperity in Asia and the world (Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Japan, 2018).”

In the ASEAN region, India is perceived as a benign actor due to a number of reasons that includes India’s projected image of being a multi-ethnic democracy with a vibrant economy and an assurance to free trade thereby having a direct stake in the existing liberal world order and India’s non- interventionist foreign policy which resonates with ASEAN to name a couple.

The volume of trade and investment flows between ASEAN and India has also accelerated. In 2017, the total two-way trade was recorded USD 73.63 Bn, an increase by 25.65% from that of the previous year of USD 58.60 Bn. During the same period, foreign direct investments (FDI) flow from India to ASEAN increased from USD 19.68 million in 2016 to USD 1.73 Bn in 2017 (ASEAN, 2019).

Over the years, ASEAN-India socio-cultural cooperation has expanded to include human resource development, people-to-people contacts, education, health, biodiversity, climate change and disaster management. 177 An Audit of the Jigsaw – India’s ‘Act East’ and the United States of America’s ‘Indo-Pacific’

All cooperation projects are funded by the ASEAN-India Fund and ASEAN-India Green Fund.

US and Southeast Asia

In respect of the US and ASEAN, Mr Mike Pompeo, the US Secretary of State in July 2018 remarked at the Indo-Pacific Business Forum: “ASEAN is literally at the centre of the Indo-Pacific, and it plays a central role in the Indo-Pacific vision that America is presenting.” There are myriad reasons for the importance of SE Asia in the Indo-Pacific Strategy and includes; two of USA’s five treaty allies located in the region; SE Asia is home to vital Sea Lines of communication and arguably it is where the FOIP strategy will be tested and ASEAN is the fulcrum of Asia’s multilateral architecture (Parameswaran, 2018).

However, the Indo-Pacific Strategy has its set on challenges; viz. doubts in the region about the focus and intent of the strategy with it being nothing more than a security-centric effort to counter China and also the applicability of FOIP to regional conditions.

Indo-Sino Relations

It is essential at this stage to also understand the geo-politics between India and China that motivates India to continuously evolve its strategy. With annexation of Tibet by PRC, in 1959 the 14th Dalai Lama fled Tibet to northern India where he established the Central Tibetan Administration. The annexation has removed the ‘Buffer’ between India and PRC.

A peep into the history indicates a dispute that predates independence (1947) with two sections of the over 3000 km border being contentious. The 1962 Sino-Indian War was fought over sovereignty issues. In 1996, an agreement to resolve the dispute was concluded. This included ‘confidence- building measures’ (CBM) and a mutually agreed Line of Actual Control

178 (LoAC). Notwithstanding, in 2006 the Chinese ambassador to India claimed that all of Arunachal Pradesh is Chinese territory. With military build-up that followed, both India and China claimed incursions as much as a kilometre near the Indian state of Sikkim. In 2009, India announced additional troop deployment in the area.

In 2017, tensions reached a head over Doklam and extended the Chinese irredentism to the Himalayas. The US stand during the tensions was that it was ‘monitoring the situation’ and was ready to assist in the resolution of the issue ‘if called upon’. At the same time the USA recognised this as a bilateral issue between India and China and hope that a peaceful resolution would be reached and status quo would prevail.

To re-set relations, the Prime Minister of India, Shri Narendra Modi and President of People’s Republic of China, Mr. Xi Jinping held an Informal Summit in Wuhan on 27-28 April 2018. The meeting addressed a wide range of issues ranging from; a shared view on management of bilateral relations, creation of conditions for an ‘Asian Century’, strengthen strategic communication, and build an open, multipolar, pluralistic and participatory global economic order (Ministry of External Affairs, India, 2018).

179 An Audit of the Jigsaw – India’s ‘Act East’ and the United States of America’s ‘Indo-Pacific’

The Australia, India, Japan and United States Quadrilateral

• The Quad has been introduced earlier in the article. The ‘Quadrilateral Security Dialogue’ (Quad), complements the Japanese initiative of FOIP and is aimed at further enhancing Japanese-Indian- Australian-US cooperation in the areas of maritime security, terrorism and freedom of navigation. To assess its effectiveness, a Diplomatic, Information, military and economy (DIME) analysis indicates the following (Hanada, 2018). • Diplomatic. The Quad serves well for policy-coordination. Just like many bilateral meetings held before multilateral or regional meetings it can be a venue for the four democratic and maritime states to exchange their views and coordinate their positions. Thus, the Quad should be seen as a value add and not a replacement for ASEAN. • Information. As the Quad is not an alliance, there are limits to intelligence or information sharing among members. Japan is still excluded from the ‘Five Eyes’ intelligence sharing cooperation framework which includes Australia. However, Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) is a key area for cooperation. The four can cooperate to enhance regional maritime security cooperation initiatives, such as the Regional Cooperation Agreement on Combating Piracy and Armed Robbery against Ships in Asia (ReCAAP), which has an information sharing centre in Singapore. • Military. The military aspect is indispensable for the Quad to be relevant to regional security. Due to the lack of security alliances between India and the other three countries and between Australia and Japan, Quad military cooperation would not be for the sake of mutual defence. Military cooperation among the Quad countries could apply to peacetime or so-called grey-zone threats and be limited to; interoperability; military technology and defence equipment transfer; capacity-building of Indo-Pacific regional states.

180 • Economic. At this stage, no idea exists for the economic integration of the Quad, involving trade and investment liberalization. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) only envisages Australia, India and Japan while the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) now includes only Australia and Japan because of the withdrawal of the United States. Also, Asia- Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) still excludes India.

Indo - Russia (Soviet) Relations

Russia has been a longstanding and time-tested partner for India. The signing of the ‘Declaration on the India-Russia Strategic Partnership’ in October 2000 provided additional impetus to bilateral ties. The strategic partnership between the two countries has promoted the development of institutionalized dialogue mechanisms at various levels in order to strengthen bilateral interaction. During the visit of the Russian President to India in December 2010, the Strategic Partnership was elevated to the level of a ‘Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership (Indian Embassy, Moscow, 2018).’

In 2017-18, bilateral trade was USD 10.69 bn, a 21.3% increase over 2016- 17. It includes Russian exports to India amounting to USD 8.6 bn and Indian exports to Russia amounting USD 2.1 bn.

India’s cooperation with Russia in the field of defence has evolved from a buyer - seller framework to joint research, development and production of advanced defence technologies and systems. BrahMos Missile System as well as the licensed production of SU-30 aircraft and T-90 tanks, joint venture production of Ka-226T helicopters are examples of such flagship cooperation.

India has been very pragmatic in her approach to Russia in light of the warming-up of relations with the USA and Russia’s increase in proximity

181 An Audit of the Jigsaw – India’s ‘Act East’ and the United States of America’s ‘Indo-Pacific’ to Pakistan and China. Notwithstanding, there are some issue to ponder on which are listed below. • While Indo - (Soviet) Russian relations have stood the test of time, given past experience, putting all eggs in one basket is not in India’s interest. • To modernise her military, India may be leaning towards the West, but has proven that she can maintain strategic autonomy by the induction of S-400 air defence systems despite considerable insistence from the US to buy the Patriot. • The collaborative effort in making of the BrahMos Missile System and joint venture in aircraft production is an indication of maturing relations between India and Russia. • Pakistan is being courted by Russia in counter-terrorism/ regional stability efforts in Afghanistan through joint military exercises. While the cooperation is likely to remain limited in scope but the political signalling of Russia’s engagement with Pakistan is seen as an outcome of the new synergies in the face of India’s shift towards the US, especially in the defence sphere (Rekha, 2018).

Convergence vs Divergence

There are certain points of convergence and divergence for India’s ‘Act East’ with the US Indo-Pacific Strategy which are enumerated below. • Strategic convergence is largely driven by shared concerns about China’s growing geostrategic ambitions across the globe and include the following. • The US has shown support to India in its role in realising its aspiration as the net security provider in this region. In the same manner, India recognises US as a dominant extra-regional power in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

182 • Despite differing ‘equations’, the Quadrilateral dialogue is increasingly becoming a clear point of convergence.

• The acceptance of India in the Southeast and East Asia is largely attributable to the change in attitude and approach of the US towards her.

• China’s selective compliance to a rules-based order and observing the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) is a mutually convergent area.

• A major point of convergence is the fact that both US and India are stable thriving democracies with similar values regarding freedom, liberty and emancipation of its people.

• Strategic divergence between the US IPS and India’s ‘Act East’ Policy is largely driven by the need of the nations for self-preservation and include the following

• The Indo-Pacific is geographically viewed differently by India (whole of the Indian Ocean, stretching from South Africa to Australia) and the US (West coast of India in the Indian Ocean to the West coast of the United States in the Pacific Ocean). This has a direct impact on strategic priorities and consequent policy making. The Pacific will remain a second-tier priority for the Indian Establishment in the near to mid-term.

• India has always maintained ‘strategic independence’ in forming alliances and is in favour of a multi-polar rule based world order. This precludes (and will preclude) India from joining any military coalition under the aegis of the US. India turning down the US offer to participate the “Freedom of Navigation” passages in the South China Sea is a case in point. Further, this has not precluded participation in joint exercises with the US and allies in the region to increase interoperability.

183 An Audit of the Jigsaw – India’s ‘Act East’ and the United States of America’s ‘Indo-Pacific’

• Common strong positions vis-à-vis China is not demonstrated by India and the US. This is demonstrated in various international fora and in the ongoing trade dispute.

• Tariff trade war between India and the US runs contrary to the ‘overtures’ of the US and sends mixed signal.

The ‘Ends’

The aim of any State is to promote its national interest(s). India’s move from ‘Look East’ in the early 1990’s to ‘Act East’ in November 2014 hints at a non-hegemonic, benign power aiming at actualising national interests of poverty alleviation, progress and development.

To maintain strategic autonomy India and will maintain equally good economic and diplomatic relations with major powers of the world. India will need to tread a fine line given its historic linkages with Russia in the field of defence cooperation. To have access to advanced technology, India has shifted her gaze to USA and Israel. The complexity of the issues lies in the fact that Chinese defence production industry is an offshoot of the Russian and thus bonhomie to a large extent is maintained and is increasing. Given China-Pakistan relations, Russia has in the recent past increased military interactions with them. These coupled with the major BRI investments in Pakistan pose a new problem for India. India in her endeavour to maintain strategic autonomy as hitherto will need to:

• Articulate and make public a Grand Strategy for the immediate neighbourhood, the region and beyond. The same should be address regional and global aspirations with balancing factors. While such a document will provide a consistent guideline to all practitioners/ stakeholders of India’s foreign policy, it will also arguably make it easier for the world to interact with India on a more confident footing.

184 • Have a counter strategy for Chinese ingress into the India Ocean and their engagement of the immediate neighbourhood to India.

• Increase engagement with States in the immediate neighbourhood and ASEAN to ensure mutual prosperity and security.

• Continue the strong ties with Russia while sourcing western technology for the defence industry including technology transfer.

The ‘Means’

Since India’s independence on 15 August 1947, the democratic institutions created have shown resilience and adequate checks and balances exist to monitor fiscal outflow and adherence to acceptable international norms of doing business. The ‘youth bulge’ has put India is in a good position to use the demographic dividend. Skilled and educated Indian youth have already made a mark for themselves across the globe.

The democratic government and arguably a large lumbering bureaucracy have limitations in the speed of decision making. Also, the process for approvals, transparency in financial dealings, domestic requirements, a newly accelerating economy and parliamentary checks and balances, limit the extent of ‘disposable’ money India can provide as aid/ assistance/ infrastructure building. India also has a poor track record of delivering on its promises which is being addressed now. Further, though a large number of reforms in the economy have been undertaken, there’s still some ground to be covered to make India a more attractive destination for foreign investment.

The ‘Ways’

In international relations, as in any other, perceptions play a major role and the current PM Shri Narendra Modi, has been working extensively on creating a brand image of India. These soft power initiatives range from,

185 An Audit of the Jigsaw – India’s ‘Act East’ and the United States of America’s ‘Indo-Pacific’ relaxation in visa regimes, reduction in red-tape for ease of doing business, engaging the Indian diaspora that are in large numbers across the globe to act as mouthpieces for promotion of Brand India to name a few. The result of the same has been that the perception of India as a rising power has been cemented.

Persistence in mainstreaming India’s NE states has also paid dividends and various connectivity projects, like the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project, BCIM-EC (looking at revival after the recent G-20 Summit), with India’s neighbours are underway.

It can be argued that the IPS is currently in a conceptual stage and is far from being institutionalised. For any Strategy/ Policy to be effective there is a need to institutionalise the construct and have a mechanism for engagement. The IPS lacks that and is being pursued through the FOIP and Quad initiatives. FOIP and Quad are both subject to considerable ‘strategic jostling’ based on the strategic requirements of the respective participants.

The BRI is filling the much needed funding gap for infrastructure development in South and SE Asia. However, the Damocles sword of a ‘debt trap’ however, is increasingly making the recipient states cautious in selecting projects to be given under the BRI. Though India may be no match to China as far as providing loans goes, India needs to compensate by providing value and quality. Also, the model of India being the largest democracy in the world is worthy of emulation and is important in providing a positive perspective to the mixed bag of governance in the region.

To maximise its effectiveness and achieve its potential, there is a need for India’s ‘Act East’ Policy to ‘align’ itself with already functional and accepted constructs in the region, viz. BIMSTEC, ASEAN and IORA. The extent of ‘alignment’ can be decided based on the principle of retaining strategic autonomy.

The IONS initiative of the Indian Navy has increasingly gained traction. The promotion of interoperability at sea amongst the member states to meet

186 benign tasks has been well proven by exercises that are held periodically. Given that the members include navies of dissimilar ideologies, it is an interesting experiment and a positive example for the rest of the world. The endeavour is and should be to continue having greater and more varied interaction under this umbrella.

Conclusion

Emergence of India as a rapidly growing economy and her aspirations for a seat at the high table necessitates that India look aggressively in her neighbourhood to promote both trade and security. The ‘Act East’ policy is purely an economic initiative of the GoI and has in the recent past gained momentum in the right direction. The move is mutually beneficial to India and her neighbours. India gains acceptance as the perception is of a benign actor with non-hegemonic interests.

China has been increasing her dominance through the BRI and has been promoting the policy as an economic initiative, but certain out of the ordinary occurrences of ‘debt trap’ in Sri Lanka and Maldives have raised suspicions about the intent. Malaysia and Thailand too have expressed their apprehensions to the initiative. Given the military and economic might of China and the deep pockets necessary to ‘feed’ the infrastructure needs of the recipients, the overtures have been embraced.

Over the past decade or more, the USA has been pushing for increasing presence in the Indo-Pacific. Renaming of the PACOM to INDOPACOM was a clarion call for the shift in strategic interests. Japan a staunch ally of the US has been, in her own strategic interest of limiting Chinese influence, engaging South and Southeast Asian states and India. Japan is also an active participant in getting the USA into the region through the FOIP and Quad. The IPS presently remains a concept and without institutional support will meander along and may not achieve intended objectives.

187 An Audit of the Jigsaw – India’s ‘Act East’ and the United States of America’s ‘Indo-Pacific’

The USA under the Trump administration has been sending mixed signals of late. Given his domestic political compulsions, statements like “India needs to get involved militarily in Afghanistan to fight the ISIS” and offering to mediate in the Kashmir issue, are a departure from the US position which India needs to factor and be vary of. India in its desire to maintain strategic autonomy has continued the deep military ties with Russia. This being a strategic necessity must continue. The dilemma India will need to contend with is that if she grows closer to the US then China will look at the situation seriously and get closer to Russia. Alternatively, if India gets closer to Russia it will alienate the USA and India may miss out on essential new technology and trade opportunities. The Indian Navy initiative of IONS has increasingly gained traction and should continue to undertake initiatives towards interoperability. While India may not have pockets as deep as China, it does have a vibrant democracy, skilled and talented youth. India needs to capitalise on these to project its soft power in the region. The next ‘Great Game’ is playing out in the region of India’s interest and the world is focussing on the emerging scenario. This is the ‘Asian century’ and the future world order will be decided in this region.

References

1. ASEAN, (2019), Available at: https://asean.org/storage/2012/05/ Overview-ASEAN-India-as-of-Feb-2019.pdf.

2. Bagchi, I., (2019), The Times of India, Available at: https://timesofindia. indiatimes.com/india/in-a-show-of-intent-external-affairs-ministry- sets-up-indo-pacific-wing/articleshow/68880720.cms.

3. Berkofsky, A., (2019), Eurasia Review, Available at: https://www. eurasiareview.com/21032019-tokyos-free-and-open-indo-pacific- quality-infrastructure-and-defence-to-the-fore-analysis/.

188 4. Congressional Research Service, (2012), Pivot to the Pacific? The Obama Administration’s “Rebalancing” Toward Asia.

5. DoD, USA, (2019), Available at: https://media.defense.gov/2019/ Jul/01/2002152311/-1/-1/1/Department-of-Defense-Indo-Pacific- Strategy-Report-2019.pdf.

6. Financial Express, (2019), Available at: https://www.financialexpress. com/defence/act-east-policy-india-south-korea-sign-logistics- agreement-to-help-indian-navy-operate-in-indo-pacific- region/1699382/.

7. Hanada, R., (2016), CSIS, Available at: https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws. com/s3fs-public/FINAL_Working%20Paper_Ryosuke%20Hanada. pdf.

8. Hanada, R., (2018), Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Available at: https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/ FINAL_Working%20Paper_Ryosuke%20Hanada.pdf.

9. Indian Embassy, Moscow, (2018), Available at: https://indianembassy- moscow.gov.in/bilateral-relations-india-russia.php.

10. Indian Navy, (2007), Available at: https://www.navy.mil/submit/ display.asp?story_id=31691.

11. Khurana, Gurpreet S., (2019), ISPI, What is the Indo-Pacific? The New Geopolitics of the Asia centred Rimland.

12. Kothari, Dr Raj Kumar, (2019). Liberation of Bangladesh: Involvement of India and Russia, Available at: https://www.academia.edu/5698231/ Liberation_of_Bangladesh_Involvement_of_India_and_Russia.

13. Lavina, L., (2015). India as a nation of consequence in Asia : The Potential and Importance of India’s ‘Act East’ Policy, The Journal of East Asian Affairs, Fall/Winter, Vol. 29 No. 2.

189 An Audit of the Jigsaw – India’s ‘Act East’ and the United States of America’s ‘Indo-Pacific’

14. Ministry of External Affairs, India, (2018), Available at: https://www. mea.gov.in/rajyasabha.htm?dtl/30716/question+no344+synergy+bet ween+oboract+east+policy. 15. Ministry of External Affairs, India, (2018), Available at: https://mea. gov.in/press-releases.htm?dtl/29853/IndiaChina_Informal_Summit_ at_Wuhan. 16. Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Japan, (2018), Available at: https://www. mofa.go.jp/region/asia-paci/india/data.html. 17. Mishra, R., (2015). Revisiting the 1971 ‘USS Enterprise Incident’: Rhetoric, Reality and Pointers for the Contemporary Era, Journal of Defence Studies, IDSA, Vol. 9 (2). 18. Parameswaran, P., (2016), The Diplomat, Available at: https:// thediplomat.com/2016/04/us-kicks-off-new-maritimesecurity-. 19. Parameswaran, P., (2018), Wilson Centre, Available at: https:// www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/2018-09_aseans_role_ parameswaran.pdf. 20. Rudd, K., (2007), The Sydney Morning Herald, Selling uranium to India is wrong: Rudd. 21. Rekha, Dr Chandra, (2018), Asia Defence Review, Balancing Russia and The United States: India’s Foreign Policy Challenges. 22. Satake, T., (2016), Japan-Australia Security Cooperation: Emerging Challenges and Opportunities, CSIS Strategic Japan. 23. Singh, S., The Indo-Pacific and India-U.S. Strategic Convergence: An Assessment, Asia Policy, January 2019, Vol 14. (1). 24. Strait Times, (2017), Battening down Asia’s hatches. 25. US National Security Strategy, White House, (2017), p 25, Available at: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS- Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf.

190 Author

Commodore Rajiv Ashok is a second generation military officer and was commissioned into the Indian Navy on 01 July 1991. He is an alumnus of Naval Academy, Goa and has specialised as a Combat Diver. He has undergone the Staff Course at Defence Services Staff College (DSSC), Wellington and the Naval Higher Command Course (NHCC) at College of Naval Warfare (CNW), Goa.

He has commanded four ships, one in each rank, that include the Missile Boat INS Chamak, the Anti-Submarine Warfare Frigate INS Taragiri and Destroyers INS Ranvijay and INS Ranvir. During his command of the destroyers he participated in many international exercises including; Singapore-India Maritime Bilateral Exercise (SIMBEX), MALABAR and Indian Ocean Naval Symposium’s (IONS) maiden International Maritime Search and Rescue Exercise (IMMSAREX). He has also commanded the Command Clearance Diving Team and the Fleet Clearance Diving Team, both at Visakhapatnam.

His important staff assignments include; Command Operations Officer (Maritime Operations) in India’s only Tri-service Command at Andaman and Nicobar and as Director in both the Directorate of Naval Operations and International Fleet Review Cell at Naval Headquarters, New Delhi. His important training assignments include; Chief Instructor of the Indian Naval Diving School, Directing Staff and Head of Training Team (Navy) at DSSC, Wellington.

The officer is a keen sportsman and has won many medals in middle and long distance track events in athletics and in cross-country in his younger days. He also plays Golf and Badminton. He and his wife are Skydiving instructors and hold three Limca Book Records; one of them being a Skydiving jump onto the erstwhile Aircraft Carrier, INS Viraat in 2006.

Email: [email protected]

191 CYBER THREATS AND NATIONAL SECURITY IN NIGERIA: STRATEGIES TO MITIGATE THE CHALLENGES

Group Captain Nosiru Babatunde Folaji, MSS, ndc, psc (+)

Introduction

The internet provides one of the avenues that facilitates the rapid spread and use of Information and Communication Technology (ICT). It is a principal platform for communication, business activities, healthcare delivery, education and other essential services. However, the internet is also used to facilitate cyber threats with negative impact on National Security. Hence, nations are becoming increasingly vulnerable to cyber threats from states and non-state actors through ICT platforms with damaging effects on critical infrastructure (Harasim L, 2015).

Cyber threat refers to malignant and destructive act that tries to access a computer network through a data communications pathway, without consent of the owners. It involves the use of internet to propagate political and religious ideologies as well as the intrusion of malware into a computer network to damage or disrupt its function. In general, a malware could hit vital systems of a country such as communication networks, defence and financial systems with damaging effects on National Security.

National Security connotes the aggregated efforts of government at securing a nation and preserving the well-being of its citizens. It includes the employment of political, diplomatic, economic and military measures to protect the territorial integrity, sovereignty and assets of a nation while ensuring the security and well-being of its citizens. Many countries have devise strategies to protect it against cyber threats in order to enhance its NS (Sukumar, 2016).

192 In 2010, a malware known as Stuxnet infiltrated Iranian nuclear facilities through a casual worker’s Universal Serial Bus (USB) drive. The Stuxnet worm destroyed 984 uranium enriching centrifuges, leading to a 30 percent decrease in enrichment efficiency (Halloway, 2019). After the Stuxnet attack, Iran established the Supreme Cyber Council to build capability against cyber threats. Similarly, Kenya was ranked by International Union of Telecommunications (ITU) as the 69th most vulnerable country in the Global Cyber Threat Index out of 127 nations with unsecured cyberspace in 2017. The country is estimated to have lost about Sh 20 Billion Kenyan Shillings (198,019 USD) in 2017 alone due to cyber threats.

Nigeria also falls among the countries severely prone to cyber threats. According to the National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA), Nigeria experienced about 3,500 malware attacks between 2015 and 2016 with over 70 percent success rate and a loss of over $450 million (Maconnel H, 2016). One of such threats was the defacing of the Defence Headquarters (DHQ) website in January 2015. Cyber threats represent a gross violation to Nigeria National Security (Harkness T, 2015). Therefore, the purpose of this research is to assess the impact of cyber threats on national security in Nigeria in order to provide a comprehensive system to mitigate the challenges.

According to Paradigm Initiative, Nigeria Internet users lost about N215 billion to cyber attacks in online transactions annually. The Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) has made coordinated effort through establishment of various agencies such as Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), Office of the National Security Adviser (ONSA), NITDA, Department of State Security (DSS) and Nigerian Cyber Crime Working Group (NCWG) to address cyber threats in Nigeria (Sesan AM, 2017). However, despite these efforts and those of other Non- Governmental Organizations (NGOs) in the fight against cyber threats, the menace still persists with negative consequence on national security.

193 Cyber Threats and National Security in Nigeria: Strategies to Mitigate the Challenges

Literature Review

The two variables in this research are Cyber Threat, which is the independent variable and National Security, the dependent variable. These variables are conceptualized and their relationship established.

Cyber Threats

Scholars and practitioners have not established precise commonalities in the field of cyber threats. The views of Schaap, Taddeo, and USA Army Training and Doctrine Command were considered. Schaap views cyber threat as the use of network-based capabilities of one state to disrupt, deny, degrade, manipulate or destroy information resident in computer networks of another state (Schaap AL, 2009). Schaap sees cyber threats as emanating from a state against another without recourse to non-state actors. It is therefore not considered for this research.

Taddeo sees cyber threat as the use of ICT by a state or non-state actors for offensive or defensive strategy aimed at disrupting or controlling resources in an information network with agents and targets ranging both on the physical and non-physical domains and whose level of violence may vary upon circumstances (Taddeo M, 2012). However, Taddeo left out the motives that often drive such a threat. His position is not comprehensive for the study and not considered suitable in the context of this research.

The US Army Training and Doctrine Command defines cyber threats as ‘‘the intentional use of disruptive activities against computers or networks by nation-state or non-state actors, with the purpose to cause harm, financial loss, scam or to further social, ideological, religious and political objectives” (U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command, 2006). This definition captures the objectives of cyber threats which are intend to cause harm, loss or to promote an ideology. Thus, it is considered apt and adopted for this research.

194 Dyke sees National Security as the protection of the sovereignty of the nation-state, the sacredness of its territories, with specific focus on protection against military attack and the collective and individual rights to self-defence against both external and internal threats (Dyke VV, 1966). This definition addresses the fundamental ingredient of national security. Dyke’s view does not cover elements of human security which is essential to address the variables in this research. Therefore, it is not adopted for this research.

According to the Council of European Union, National Security is “the use of the security sectors of a state to address major threats, including crime, natural and man-made disasters which have direct impact on the lives, safety and well-being of citizens” (CEU, 2015). CEU definition is largely militarised, without reference to other means of safeguarding National Security. Thus, it is not suitable for this research.

Paleri considers National Security as the capability of a nation to overcome multi-dimensional threats like crime, war, poverty and disease outbreak which affects the well-being of the people and its survival as a nation (Paleri, 2015). His view focuses on security of individual, the protection of their personal properties and elimination of vulnerabilities that constitute threats to security. It also emphasises the socio-economic well-being of the people as well as its survival as a nation, which is key to this research. This definition is considered apt and therefore adopted for of this research.

Relationship between Cyber Threats and National Security

Cyber threat disrupts the activities of computers or networks with the intention of harming, threatening and promoting objectives that are inimical to national security. National Security is the capability of a state to mitigate threats to the survival or well-being of the citizens through the instrument of state policy. The nexus between the two variables is that the presence of cyber threats destablishes national security, while an enhanced national security instrument diminishes cyber threats.

195 Cyber Threats and National Security in Nigeria: Strategies to Mitigate the Challenges

From the foregoing, an inter-relationship exists between cyber threat and National Security. A decline in cyber threats rate would enhance national security. Conversely, an increase in cyber threats rate would threaten national security. Thus, there is an indirect relationship between cyber threats and national security.

Review of Existing Literature

A number of studies have been conducted on Cyber Threats and National Security. The literature are reviewed with a view to identifying the lapses the research seeks to fill.

Jason Andress, in his book “Cyber Warfare”, discusses important of internet in running nations’ militaries and economies. His work focuses more on techniques, tactics and tools for cyber security. Jason’s work did not cover cyber security policies and strategies to curb cyber threats.

Donohoe, in his work “Cyber Warfare” asserts that nations states are at risk and vulnerable to the contemporary information age due to dependency of their National Information Infrastructures (NII) upon computer networks (H Donohoe, 1998). The focus of his study was military operations, therefore he did not address cyber attacks on private and economic sector that could undermine National Security.

The literature reviewed proved beyond doubt that cyber threats constitute a negative effect on national security. Some of the works focused on techniques and tactics to combat cyber threats without discussion of policies and strategies to address the menace. Others that discussed policies and strategies concentrated on the cybercrime rather than the threats in cyber domain environment. However, none of the literature provided comprehensive details on the impact of cyber threats on National Security and strategies to mitigate the challenges in developing countries like Nigeria. It is this identified gaps that the research seeks to propose a comprehensive system for mitigating the impact of cyber threats on National Security in Nigeria.

196 Research Methodology

The methodology of the research includes the type of research, sources of data, methods of data collection, sampling, method of data analysis and method of data presentation. Type of Research. The research adopted field survey method using both quantitative and qualitative data drawn from primary and secondary sources. Structured and unstructured interviews were conducted on respondents who are experts in the subject of ICT and national security in Nigeria. Sources of Data. Primary data was collected by using structured and unstructured interviews. Questionnaires were also administered to obtain the opinions of respondents on cyber threats and national security in Nigeria and Bangladesh. Similarly, secondary data were collected from published and unpublished materials such as books, journals and official publications etc. Methods of Data Collection. A total of 250 questionnaires were administrated on persons affiliated with knowledge of cyberspace within Nigeria and Bangladesh. Method of Data Analysis. Primary and secondary data generated were analysed quantitatively and qualitatively by applying simple descriptive statistical tools. Methods of Data Presentation. The research data were presented in a descriptive form with the use of tables, graphs, charts and appendices.

Issues and Effects of Cyber Threats and National Security in Nigeria

The research data is presented and the issues as well as effects of cyber threats on national security in Nigeria are discussed in subsequent paragraphs.

197 Cyber Threats and National Security in Nigeria: Strategies to Mitigate the Challenges

Presentation of Research Data

A field survey, using questionnaires, based on purposive sampling and non- probabilistic method was carried out in Lagos, Abuja and Dhaka during the research. A total number of 250 questionnaires were distributed and 210 received.

Issues Associated with Cyber Threats and National Security in Nigeria

The issues associated with cyber threats and national security in Nigeria include legal framework, institutional framework, multi-stakeholder collaboration and skilled manpower.

Legal Framework

Some of the laws enacted for policing the Nigeria’s cyberspace are in Table 1 below.

Table 1: Cyber Crime Related Laws in Nigeria Serial Laws Years Remarks (a) (b) (c) (d) 1. The Copyright Act Chapter 68 LFN 1999 2. Criminal Code Act Chapter C-38 LFN 2004 3. EFCC Act Cap. E-1, LFN 2004 4. Advance Fee Fraud (AFF) and other 2007 Related Offences 5. Money Laundering (Prohibition) Act 2011 6. Cyber Crimes Act of 2015 2015

The Cyber Crimes Act of 2015 in particular, was made to curb the growing spate of internet offences in Nigeria. However, the Act lacks what it takes to adequately combat the menace of cyber threats. The Act for instance, in

198 Section 7 exclusively empowered Federal High Courts to investigate matters related to cybercrimes in Nigeria without due consideration of the other subject matter experts such as NCC, EFCC and ONSA. Thus, restricts other agencies contributing in the formulation of cyber security policies.

Institutional Framework

Nigeria lacks a robust institutional framework with defensive and offensive capabilities to respond to cyber threats (Sesan AM, 2016). Over the years, institutions such as the NgCERT, Cyber Security Cell at the DHQ and the DSS amongst others were created in response to increasing cyber threats in Nigeria. The capacities of these institutions are inadequate as evident in the August 2012 and January 2015 cyber attacks on DHQ and DSS respectively in which official information/data were breached.

According to Lucas the Year 2015 - 2016 recorded the highest cyber attacks estimated at 3,500 with 75 percent success rate (Abojo Lucas, 2019). The attacks would have been avoided or minimised if the country had a robust offensive and defensive cyber security outfits. The field analysis in Figure 1 further provides insight.

Figure 1: Response on Institutional Framework

100 87.14 80 Eective 60 40 Ineective 20 7.14 5.17 No Idea 0 Eective Ineective No Idea

199 Cyber Threats and National Security in Nigeria: Strategies to Mitigate the Challenges

According to Muktar, the ability to secure the cyberspace is constrained by the absence of appropriate structures to counter evolving cyber threats (Muktar Umoru, 2019). Therefore, institutional framework is a consideration in addressing cyber threats for enhanced national security in Nigeria.

Multi-Stakeholder Collaboration

The agencies responsible for policing and combating cyber threat in Nigeria are EFCC, NPF, DSS, NCC and ONSA. Unlike in the UK, where all counter cyber threat activities are coordinated by the OCSIA, in Nigeria there is no single body responsible for coordinating all the agencies involve in anti-cyber crime activities (Cabinet Office, 2019). Anti-cybercrime agencies in Nigeria are compartmentalized due to the nature of their respective organization.

According to Theophilus, multi-stakeholder collaboration would involve information sharing on possible threats and best practices in cyber security (Deputy Director, Cyber Security ONSA, 2019). The result of field survey in Figure 2 provides further insight. Figure 2: Respondents’ View on the Need for Multi Stakeholder Collaboration

200 Muktar validated the finding that the most vital links to Nigeria’s infrastructure are in the hands of the private sector, as they run most of the critical sectors. Multi-Stakeholder collaboration is therefore a major factor in combating cyber threats for enhanced national security in Nigeria.

Skilled Manpower

Nigeria has about 1,500 cyber security professionals. This is far inadequate from the 75,000 cyber security professional requirement set by the International Data Corporation (IDC) (eNigeria, 2016). Only 3 per cent of employees in an IT department of large organizations in Nigeria are dedicated to cyber security (Wofgan, 2016). The shortage of qualified cyber security professionals in the country have been a problem for years due to low capacity for manpower development. The field analysis in Figure 3 supports this view. Figure 3: Response on Skilled Manpower 120 98.57 100 80 Adequate 60 Inadequate 40 20 1.42 0 Surplus

0 s

Surplu Adequate Inadequate

Lucas corroborated this findings and asserted that cyber security experts are highly inadequate in the ICT department of organizations in Nigeria (Abojo Lucas, 2019). Thus, skilled manpower is a major concern in combating cyber threats with negative impact on national security of Nigeria.

201 Cyber Threats and National Security in Nigeria: Strategies to Mitigate the Challenges

Effects of Cyber Threats on National Security in Nigeria

Cyber threat has negative effects on national security in Nigeria. Some of the effects include financial cost, internet scam, Computer Network Exploitation (CNE) and radicalisation.

Financial Cost

As organizations continue to expand in network connectivity, the potential to incur additional financial cost to cyber threats increases. The annual cost to cyber threats in Nigeria is put at 0.08 percent of the Gross Domestic Products (GDP), which represents about N127 billion (Aladenusi, 2017). The volume of loss to cyber threats maintained an upward trend from 2010 to 2018. While the value was $190 million in 2010, it increased to $850 million in 2018, thus, having a negative effect on national security. The field analysis in Figure 4 further gives insight into this negative effect. Figure 4: Response on Financial Cost 100 92.38 80 No 60 Yes 40 No Idea 20 7.62 0 0 No YesNo Idea

Muktar observed that “virtually every organization is facing cyber risks, ranging from the loss of information to financial fraud and the disruption of entire business activities” (Muktar Umoru, 2019). Therefore, cyber threats expose organizations to significant financial cost with negative effect on national security.

202 Internet Scam

There are more than 800,000 organized scammers globally, many coming from Nigerians residing in different countries. About 80 percent of check fraud, 95 percent of lottery scams and 91 percent of inheritance frauds are related to Nigerian online scams (Uka, 2015). Regrettably, internet scam has earned Nigerians bad international reputation, thereby making citizens to undergo extreme checks at international border posts and airports. The field analysis in Figure 5 further provides insights. Figure 5: Response on Internet Scam 120 95.71 100

80 No 60 Yes 40 No Idea 20 4.28 0 0 No YesNo Idea

Lucas asserted that activities of hackers and cyber criminals in recent times have threatened government resources, economic activities of the state and vital infrastructure connected to the internet (Abojo Lucas, 2019). Thus, internet scam constitute cyber threats targeted at defrauding members of the public and organizations, thereby eroding public confidence in electronic transaction with negative effect on national security in Nigeria.

Computer Network Exploitation

According to statistics of the Centrex Ethical Lab, the number of cases involved with the defacement of government websites in Nigeria increased

203 Cyber Threats and National Security in Nigeria: Strategies to Mitigate the Challenges from 25 percent in 2015 to 75 percent as at 2018. Data breaches and identity compromises through CNE continues to reduce the value of sensitive data of many organizations. The field analysis in Figure 6 supports this view.

Figure 6: Response on CNE

100 90.47 80 60 No 40 Yes 20 3.81 5.71 No Idea 0 No YesNo Idea

Chukwu revealed that in the face of existing unfavourable government policies and actions, cyber threats are expected to increase as criminals continue to think of clever and sneaky ways to obtain personal and business information from computer networks (Chukwu Chimaroke, 2019). Hence, CNE is an offshoot of cyber threats that impact negatively on national security.

Radicalisation

As at 2015, over 3,000 nationals were radicalised through the internet and recruited as fighters by the Islamic State in Syria (ISIS). Nigerian citizens have also fallen victims to the recruitment tactics of ISIS and other terrorist organizations. The internet and more specifically, social media, have assisted extremist organizations to mobilise Nigeria citizens into violent extremism with negative impact on national security. The field analysis in Figure 7 further provides insight.

204 Figure 7: Response on Radicalism 70 65.23 60 50 Very High 40 27.61 High 30 Low 20 7.15 10 0 Very High High Low

Oloyede corroborated this findings and stated that violent extremists have become increasingly sophisticated at creating global networks of online support that run virtual circles of propaganda (Oloyede Abdulrahman). Thus, cyber threats are instrumental for propagating radicalism with profound negative effect on national security.

Challenges against Nigeria in Combating Cyber Threats for Enhanced National Security

The issues involved in the fight against cyber threats in Nigeria raised some challenges. These include decentralised and distributed enforcement framework of Cyber Crime Act of 2015, weak institutional capacity, lack of cyber security collaboration framework, low capacity for manpower development and poor system security management culture.

Decentralized and Distributed Enforcement Framework of Cyber Crimes Act 2015

The Cyber Crimes Act 2015 stipulates that, any crime or injury on critical national information infrastructure, sales of pre-registered SIM cards, unlawful access to computer systems and cyber-terrorism, among others,

205 Cyber Threats and National Security in Nigeria: Strategies to Mitigate the Challenges are punishable under the new law. For instance, enforcement part of the Law, as enshrined in Section 7 of the Act was left in the hands of cyber café operators. The Act also mandates the Computer Professionals Registration Council of Nigeria (CPRCN) to coordinate cyber cafe operators in Nigeria while ONSA coordinates enforcement of the Act by all relevant law enforcement agencies.

The decentralization of enforcement, compliance and investigation in the Act has created confusion that renders the Act ineffective to police Nigeria’s cyber space. Therefore, the Act is not comprehensive to combat cyber threats for enhanced national security.

Weak Institutional Capacity

Nigeria is connected to the internet through a number of submarine fibre- optic cables and several national fibre-optic backbone networks. Hence, it is difficult to possess capacity for Blue Coat’s Packet Shaper which could enable regulatory institutions effectively control undesirable online traffic (Drucker, 2015).

According to Akpan, the institutions in Nigeria lacks effective security capabilities to secure the country’s internet connectivity (Brig Gen Moses Akpan, 2019). Hence, it has become necessary to strengthen the defensive and offensive capabilities of the country’s IT institutions towards combating cyber threats. The field analysis in Figure 8 further corroborates this view.

206 Figure 8: Response on Poor Institutional Capacity 80 74.76 70 60 50 Very High 40 High 30 16.66 Low 20 8.57 Very Low 10 0 0 Very High Low Very High Low

Lack of a Cyber Security Collaboration Framework

According to Chukwu, the security outfits, which are expected to work together as a team to find a lasting solution to the cyber threats, are pre- occupied with internal strife and inter-agency rivalry (Chukwu Chimaroke, 2019). The lack of a cyber security collaboration framework deprives Nigeria of best practices in cyber security, which could help to develop capabilities to combat cyber threats.

Theophilus also revealed that cyber security collaboration between the Nigeria and international partners is also lacking, while that with public and private bodies is only on ad hoc basis and hence not robust enough to boost Nigeria’s efforts to combat cyber threats (Brig Gen Mike Theophilus, 2019). The survey result in Figure 9 further provides details.

207 Cyber Threats and National Security in Nigeria: Strategies to Mitigate the Challenges

Figure 9: Respondents’ View on Lack of a Cyber Security Collaboration Framework

Low Capacity for Manpower Development

According to Chukwu, Nigeria has not invested sufficiently in the development of manpower for cyber security in order to protect its cyberspace. Only very few institutions in Nigeria currently administers cyber security as a course of study (Chukwu Chimaroke, 2019). Hence, there is low skill capacity and capability to defend Nigeria’s data and information systems. The field analysis in Figure 10 further provides insight.

Figure 10: Response on Low Capacity for Manpower Development 100 82.84 80

60 True

False 40 No Idea 20 7.16 10

0 True False No Idea

208 Poor System Security Management Culture

Over 80 percent of public and private organizations in Nigeria have no standing system security management policy (Babatunde, 2015). Muktar corroborated that in most cases, once new ICT facilities are installed, it takes 6 months to a year before any major software and hardware update is effected on it (Muktar Umoru, 2019). Consequently, this exposes many organizations to cyber vulnerabilities, thereby impacting negatively on national security. The field analysis in Figure 11 further corroborate this view.

Figure 11: Response on Poor System Security Management Culture 100 90 80 Poor 60 Good 40 Fair 20 4.2 5.7 0 Poor Good Fair

Strategies to Mitigate the Challenges against Nigeria to Combat Cyber Threats for Enhanced National Security

Strategies to overcome the identified challenges to combat cyber threats in Nigeria and action plans for implementation are discussed in subsequent paragraphs.

Amendment to Cyber Crime Act of 2015

The Cyber Crime Act of 2015 could be amended by the NASS to make it more robust. The FGN could constitute a Committee comprising the

209 Cyber Threats and National Security in Nigeria: Strategies to Mitigate the Challenges

SSA on NASS matters, the NSA, representatives of relevant ministries and private organizations. The Committee would conduct enlightenment campaigns on cybercrime to ensure the urgent amendment of the Cyber Crime Act 2015 by the NASS before end of Third Quarter 2020.

Strengthening Institutional Capacity on Cyber Security

The FGN through could enter bilateral technical relation with foreign allies to transfer capability for the establishment of a Cyber Warfare Command with the mandate to provide cyber intelligence analysis, defend Nigeria cyberspace and launch attacks against hostile states or groups. The Presidency could forward a draft bill to NASS for consideration and promulgation to facilitate the commitment of government funding by First Quarter 2021.

Establishment of Cyber Information Sharing and Analysis Centre

The FGN could direct ONSA to create CISAC to serve as a focal point for coordination and sharing information by all stakeholders involve in cyber security with relevant department to cover banking and finance, telecommunication and ICT, oil/gas, defence and education sectors could be in Second, Third, and Fourth Quarter 2020 respectively.

Improved Capacity for Adequate Skilled Manpower on Cyber Security

The Federal Ministry of Education (FMOE), in partnership with NITDA, could launch the global programme on National Initiative for Cyber- Security Education (NICE) in Nigeria by Fourth Quarter 2020. This would promote a robust network for wide cyber security education, training, and workforce development that could increase the size of skilled manpower on cyber security in Nigeria.

210 Formulation of a National Information Technology Security Policy

Formulation of a NITSP would stipulate standards that would enforce organizations’ commitment to securing critical information assets. The FGN could task NITDA to draft the NITSP by First Quarter of 2020 and ready for transmission to the NASS for enactment by First Quarter 2021.

Implementation Plan for the Strategies

The implementation plan for the strategies will be in 3 phases as discussed in subsequent paragraphs.

Phase 1 (0-12 Months). Phase 1 is the preparatory phase. This could involves collation treaties from relevant stakeholders for the amendment of the Cyber Crime Act 2015, convening a technical committee to work out modalities for the establishment of a Cyber Warfare Command and to constitute a committee to work out modalities for the establishment of a CISAC. Others would involve the launch of NICE and the formulation of a NITSP.

Phase 2 (13-24 Months). This is implementation phase. NASS to create a committee to deliberate on amendment to Cyber Crime Act 2015, MOD to commence bilateral technical cooperation with foreign nations to transfer capacity and ONSA to establish CISAC. FMOE to review tertiary institutions curriculum to accommodate cyber security education and FGN to commence sensitisation exercise on implementation of the NITSP.

Phase 3 (Above 24 Months). Phase 3 is the consolidation, ratification and evaluation phase.

211 Cyber Threats and National Security in Nigeria: Strategies to Mitigate the Challenges

Conclusion

The research assesses the impact of cyber threats on NS in Nigeria. The field survey conducted revealed the issues associated with cyber threats in Nigeria are legal and institutional frameworks, multi-stakeholder collaboration and skilled manpower. The effects of cyber threats on NS in Nigeria include financial cost, Internet scam, CNE and radicalisation. The aforementioned issues manifests into some identified challenges which include decentralized and distributed enforcement framework of Cyber Crime Act of 2015, weak institutional capacity, lack of cyber security collaboration framework, low capacity for manpower development and poor system security management culture.

The strategies proffered to mitigate the challenges to combat cyber threats in Nigeria include amendment to the Cyber Crime Act of 2015 by NASS, establishment of a Cyber Warfare Command, the establishment of CISAC, the launching of global programme on NICE and the formulation of the NITSP.

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213 Cyber Threats and National Security in Nigeria: Strategies to Mitigate the Challenges

Author

Group Captain Nosiru Babatunde Folaji was born on 20 November 1972. He had his primary and secondary education between 1977 - 1982 and 1983 - 1988 respectively. He was commissioned into the Nigerian Air Force in 1996 as a member of 43RC of NDA with B. Sc Degree in Biological Science. He obtained a Master Degree in Disaster Management and Development Studies from the Ahmadu Bello University, Zaira in 2013. He also holds Master of Social Science in Security and Development (MSSSD) from Bangladesh University of Professionals (BUP) Bangladesh in 2019.

He is an Air Traffic Controller by specialty with both Civil and Military Control Licences. His recent appointments include was Military Airport Commandant, Murtala Muhammed International Airport Ikeja, DS Armed Forces Command and Staff College, Jaji and PSO to Hon’ble Minister of Defence. His hobbies include playing Tennis and Squash.

E-mail: [email protected]

214 PSYCHOLOGICAL CONTRACT: TOWARDS ENHANCED INTERPERSONAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN OFFICERS AND MEN OF BANGLADESH ARMY

Colonel Md Syeedur Rahman, afwc, psc

Introduction

A strong bond between two or more people refers to Interpersonal Relationship (IPR) and being looked upon as psychosocial (psy) phenomena occupy a valuable position in the system of human relationships (Prachi, 2019). As a compounding part of this system, IPR have an important influence over the process of individual and collective development of military personnel. It contributes in improving the efficiency of military activities and the complex process of adaptation in military fraternity (Antonia, 2008). There are different types of IPR, such as communicational, cognitive, affective, functional, etcetera, where the communicational relationship represents the medium and mechanism that mediates all the IPR established between the leaders and the led (Oana, 2014).

‘Psy contract’, extensively referred in Human Resource Management (HRM), is an unwritten understanding and informal obligation between an employer and employee, and the mutual expectations of how an employer or employee will perform individual role in a business organization (Van, 2004). Psy contract is therefore a reciprocal exchange relationship where the enormity of the contract largely determines an individual’s commitment, motivation, loyalty, enthusiasm, and satisfaction to the organisation. Apart from its significance in business world, psy contract can also be relevant in military life. Respect, trust, loyalty, empathy, etcetera are essential ingredients of psy contract, and similarly all these elements are crucial in military to work as a team and achieve desired goals.

215 Psychological Contract: Towards Enhanced Interpersonal Relationship Between Officers and Men of Bangladesh Army

Despite mutual trust and confidence, there is a growing concern in improving the IPR between officers and men in the units of Bangladesh (BD) Army. A study conducted by 46 Independent Infantry Brigade (46 Brigade, 2010) revealed that 49% officers of BD Army opined for the need of improving IPR in the units, and contemporary literatures also echo similar findings (Haque, 2018). Officers and men of a unit are the foundation of accomplishments where the core energy is generated from the IPR between the two. Consequently, weak IPR in a unit affects the chain of command, mutual trust, confidence, esprit de corps, values, and most importantly the overall performance. Unfortunately, endeavours by providing tangible benefits i.e. salary, accommodation, food, etcetera to improve the IPR in the units appear not to be making substantial headway. Therefore, instead of looking into the problem through materialistic perspective, solving it through psy dimension of relationship is most likely to deliver a better outcome.

Review of the Literature

No specific literature is currently available to provide a lead on the topic. However, some researchers worked on specific issues related to military IPR which provided certain insights. Most literatures primarily focused on reasons for deteriorating IPR and its effect on unit performance, efficiency, perception management, etcetera. Junayed (2011) focused on the declining trend of IPR in BD Army and effects of materialism on IPR and identified ‘materialism’ as the principal reason for declining IPR between officers and men in the units. Whereas, Rajib (2014) identified ‘lack of psy inspiration’ as the principal cause of deterioration and Mamun (2013) identified social changes as the principal barrier to the formation of expected level of IPR in the units. Oana (2014) reiterated that the ‘communicational bond’ mediates IPR in the military medium and Hasan (2010) evidenced that good IPR between the officers and men is a dynamic method of increasing the efficiency of a unit.

216 Philip (1979) explained the importance of psychology in human life by relating motivation, emotion, personality, mystery, and behaviour. In the early stages, Schein (1980) brought forward the term ‘psy contract’ and defined the contract as an unwritten set of expectations. Later, Robinson and Rousseau (1994) suggested psy contract being characterised not only by expectations, but also by promissory and reciprocal obligations. Edobor (2012) explained different types of psy contract and its relationship with organisational trust and Blanck et al (1993) highlighted the positive association between expectation and motivation through proactive approach in maintaining psy contract. Griffith (1998) described the components of cohesion in military units and clarified how psy bonding among different tiers can improve the command climate and relationship among military members.

Methodology

The study is a cross-sectional study with causal relationship design. It followed an analytical methodology based on multiple sources of information. Both quantitative (numerical) and qualitative (narrative) methodologies were used. Primary data was collected through questionnaire surveys, structured/ semi-structured interviews, and focused group discussions. Secondary data was collected from previous studies on the subject from National Defence College (NDC) and Defence Services Command and Staff College (DSCSC). Besides, various books, journals, periodicals, newspaper articles, and open sources like online publications and internet was also used.

It was hypothesized that if positive psy contract exists in the units, sound IPR between the officers and men would prevail. The hypothesis dealt with two variables. Hence the proposition was a ‘Bivariate’ proposition and followed a ‘Non-experiential’ study design. ‘IPR between officers and men’ was the dependent variable and ‘Psy Contract’ was the independent variable. Intervening variables were unit culture, military traditions,

217 Psychological Contract: Towards Enhanced Interpersonal Relationship Between Officers and Men of Bangladesh Army leadership, unit environment, type of unit, etcetera. In the hypothesis, psy contract (independent variable) between officers and men in units of BD Army was identified as the presumed ‘cause’ and IPR (dependent variable) between officers and men was identified as the presumed ‘effect’. The variables assumed to have an ‘Asymmetrical Relationship’ with each other.

Psy Contract and Its Relevance with IPR

Many researchers viewed the concept of psy contract in a wide range of beliefs, depending on the individual background, culture, religion, age, and status. Initially, psy contract was viewed as an exchange agreement between the employer and employee, but today the concept is extended to almost every aspect of IPR (Dadi, 2012). Therefore, psy contract can be best regarded as a metaphor; that helps us to understand the state of the work relationship. The exact term ‘Psy Contract’ was first coined by Levinson (Shapiro et al, 2008) in 1962, later Rousseau (1989) reconceptualised the concept in 1989, where greater emphasis on the promissory nature of the contract was connected with reciprocal obligation. It must be borne in mind that psy contract being subjective in nature varies as per individual perception and understanding. But most academicians agree that psy contract is about promises, obligations, and expectations.

The antecedents of psy contract have also revealed that ‘promise’ is the central element of psy contract, and it originates from a variety of sources i.e. recruiters, training, praise, documents, etcetera (Shore and Tetrick, 1994). Although psy contract produces some expectations, not all expectations emanate from perceived promises (both explicit and implicit); contrarily, obligations arise out of promises between employer and employee (Allen and Meyer, 1990). Some theorists also opine that it is motivation, not expectation that drives both employer and employees to work together. Therefore, these three central elements i.e. promise, obligation, and expectation should be considered interdependently than independently. Following ‘Iceberg Diagram’ is an example of a considerably

218 basic employee-employer relationship looking through the lens of psy contract:

Figure 1: Iceberg Model of Psy Contract (www.recreateconsulting.co.uk) The Iceberg above the water level is the visible contract which is known to both the parties i.e. the work, role and responsibility employee has to do and with reference to the salary, commission etc which has to be paid by the employer. The Iceberg below the water level is Psy Contract, which is hidden, unspoken and unexplained. The left-hand side of the iceberg shows the examples of what employee provides to the organisation or it can be said what the employer expects from the employee. Similarly, the right-hand side of the iceberg shows the examples of what employer provide to the employee or it can be said the other way round that what employee expects from the employer

Formation of psy contract is a process where the employer and the employee develop and refine their psy understanding of one another, and it develops throughout the duration of employment. Rousseau (1989) indicated five phases of psy contract formation namely, pre-employment, recruitment, induction, maturity, and evaluation. And, if a positive psy contract is formed then it mitigates uncertainty, shapes behaviour, and develops understanding. But the state of formation varies depending on several factors i.e. management style, communication, type of profession, etcetera.

Anthony et al (2000) opined that psy contract being mostly unwritten and intangible, can motivate and inspire both employer and employee. Some researchers also argued that promises made out of positive psy contract are much more ‘psychologically engaging’ than expectation, but when the expectations of both employer and employees match, both ends get inspiration and set up new goals to be achieved, which in turn becomes beneficial for organization. Schaufeli et al (2008) reiterated that positive psy contract revives vigour, dedication, absorption, which in turn creates a sense of belongingness and makes employees more satisfied.

219 Psychological Contract: Towards Enhanced Interpersonal Relationship Between Officers and Men of Bangladesh Army

Positive psy contract leads to high levels of involvement and results in increased profitability, productivity, employee retention, and overall enhancement. It also facilitates value tradition, conformity, power, benevolence, universalism, and resultantly show greater involvement (Lipkin, 2013). When there is prevalence of positive psy contract it helps the leadership to inform and explain openly and kerbs the formation of misperception among the employees. According to Businessballs (2019), positive psy contract enhances transparency which helps to kick-start a virtuous circle within the organization which enables respect, trust, recognition, openness, and tolerance. In an organization where a culture of mutual respect and recognition is maintained, employees tend to accept more demanding tasks, feel respected, and become more loyal to the organization (Senge et al, 1999).

On the contrary, a breach/ violation in psy contract occurs when employees perceive that their employer has failed to deliver what was promised, or vice versa. Outcomes of such violation can be drastic and often produces worse effects for both employee/ employer and the organization. Turnley and Feldman (1998) studied the extent and consequences of psy contract violation in business firms, and reported that psy contract violations resulted employee dissatisfaction, mistrust, neglect of duties, and bad behaviours.

Psy contract is essentially relational, and relational contracts aims at maintaining emotional IPR between employer and employee. IPR forms the bridge between individuals (cognitive, affective, and behavioural) in the way they interact. Consequently, there are ‘intrinsic’ and ‘extrinsic’ links between psy and IPR. Casciaro et al (2008) identified the presence of three elements when individuals work as a team: sentiment, activity, and interaction. As such, development of IPR is importantly linked with psy. For establishing positive psy contract interaction and communication between employer and employee is a must, and so is the case with IPR as communication is said to be the foundation of IPR. Zvonarevic (1985) defined IPR as ‘a state of psy relations of the members of a particular

220 group who are connected by a purpose’ which indicates that the main characteristic of IPR is mutual understanding, same is also the case with psy contract. As such, all these indicate the existence of a coherent relationship (intrinsic and extrinsic) between psy contract and IPR based on reciprocal exchange relationship.

Current State of IPR in the Units of BD Army

A group is a dynamic whole, where the members are interdependent, and a change in any sub-part causes change in the other sub-parts. The degree of a group’s interdependence mostly depends on the group’s size, organization, and psy intimacy (Bruhn, 2014). Good IPR at unit level is most important as units are the basic building blocks of BD Army. It is mostly in a unit where leaders and led work intimately for a common purpose. More so, a military unit, as a group develops psy bonding largely through IPR i.e. interaction, communication, affiliation, etcetera. Sound IPR enables both the leaders and the led to share ideas, thoughts, and reach decisions that enable everyone to be successful as a group. IPR also nurtures the culture of a unit through motivation, trust, and cohesiveness (Shams, 2018). Therefore, IPR directly contributes to the leadership competency (VanSciver, 2017) and influences the process of individual development, efficiency, and problem-solving skills.

There are some coherent indicators to assess the state of IPR, but the intricacy is that, IPR is mostly intangible therefore the yield cannot be precisely measured. Army Doctrinal Publication 6-22 (Army Leadership) of United States (US) Army outlines the key indicators which influence IPR, namely empathy, mutual respect, cohesion, and interaction. Similarly, Grunig et al (1999) also developed a set of indicators for measuring IPR within an organization which are trust, control mutuality, satisfaction, and commitment. In addition, some more indicators i.e. dedication, motivation, loyalty, recognition, and teamwork were extracted from an in-depth study of previous related studies to fit in the BD perspective.

221 Psychological Contract: Towards Enhanced Interpersonal Relationship Between Officers and Men of Bangladesh Army

All the aforesaid indicators were taken into consideration and a survey was conducted to ascertain the state of IPR in the units of BD Army (using a 5-point Likert Scale). It was revealed that most of the indicators/elements of IPR needs improvement i.e. satisfaction, commitment, motivation, mutual trust, respect, loyalty, and teamwork. Content analysis, expert opinions, and expert interviews also indicated similar findings.

Figure 2: Indicators of IPR-Aggregated Response Percentage 60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Very Good Good Satisfactory Needs Improvement Not Good

In this connection, Khaled (2019) opined that many officers and men fail to comprehend the significance of IPR as it is mostly psy in nature and often struggle to establish an effective relationship. In addition, many soldiers consider most elements of IPR are officer led, therefore initiative in creating an effective relationship rests on the officers, whereas many young officers opined otherwise. As such, it revealed the erroneous perception of establishing good IPR between officers and men in the units. Matin (2019) opined that, lack of mutual trust and respect between officers and men is causing weak psy engagement. IPR being largely psy influences the conduct and lifestyle of an individual. As such, weak IPR in the units is making both officers and men self-centred, isolated, and individualistic. Inspiration infers motivation, and involves energization and direction of behaviour (Elliot and Thrash, 2003). A survey (on both officers and men)

222 to assess the state of psy inspiration in the units of BD Army revealed inadequacy of psy connection between officers and men.

It is also revealed that often officers are hesitant to rely on their men because of scepticism; and soldiers often remain ambiguous about the endeavours of the officers for the betterment of the troops and the unit (Khan, 2019). Some Commanders and Commanding Officers opined that IPR has a strong correlation with motivation, and contemporary mid-level and junior officers lack motivational skills to motivate the new-generation under commands, as soldiers these days are very calculative and possesses the tendency of dullness (Mamun, 2019; Aksar, 2019; Khan, 2019; Elias, 2019). All these either significantly or inconsequentially have contributed in a gradual decline of interaction, communication, and development of an amicable relationship between officers and men in the units of BD Army.

Figure 3: Misperceptions on IPR in the Units

In ascertaining the likely causes of declining IPR in the units both officers and soldiers opined zero-error syndrome, micromanagement, less interaction, increased administrative workload, lack of psy inspiration as significant ones. Other causes in this regard included prolonged engagement in non- training activities, aggression of foreign culture, lack of mutual respect and trust, dissatisfaction on each other’s conduct, misperception, uneasiness

223 Psychological Contract: Towards Enhanced Interpersonal Relationship Between Officers and Men of Bangladesh Army in mixing up, cultural cringe, social discrimination, etcetera (Shams, 2018; Haque, 2014; Rajib, 2014). From both qualitative and quantitative analysis of the elements of IPR, it became clear that some elements of IPR i.e. psy inspiration, motivation, mutual respect, commitment, dedication, etcetera need definite improvement. Contemporary attempts by different researchers also had similar result, although each researcher used different indicators for assessment (Mamun, 2013; Haque, 2018; Junayed, 2011).

Effect of Positive Psy Contract on Military IPR

As per Cambridge Dictionary (2019), ‘an organization is a group of people who work together in an organized way for a shared purpose’, as such a military unit is also an organization. But a military unit, unlike a business organization or enterprise, is founded on strong IPR between leaders and led which serves as a catalyst to make supreme sacrifices. A military unit, as an organization, also holds its own psycho-social structure and conducts professional activities based on its role and objectives. It is usually made up of heterogeneous individuals, who mostly interact in direct, unmediated ways-that is, face to face (Carmen, 2013). Therefore, IPR in a military unit can be said to have its own specific traits, both in terms of formation and dynamics, and most of those are predominantly based on human psychology.

IPR in a unit is greatly influenced by the unit environment, command climate, common practices, and traditions. Correspondingly, the quality of psy contract in a business organization is determined by the organisational leadership and human resource practices rather than the workforce. In a military unit, because of the relative position, the officers are expected to take lead role in developing good IPR with troops; and likewise, in a business organization because of the capacity to design and develop the working conditions, the employer remains in the dominant and advantageous position in developing psy contract (Ahsan, 2019). It is therefore deduced that the psy dimension of relationship in a business organization and a military unit are comparable.

224 Psy contract is an improved way of managing relationship to meet the needs and interests of employees, employer, and the organization. Likewise, IPR in the military units indicates the relationship between officers and men, and aims to improve the overall performance of the unit working as an efficient team (Shams, 2018). One of the most important similarity between IPR and psy contract is that, both are never written or formalised, which makes it inherently difficult to manage and difficult to comprehend by both leaders/ employer and led/ employee (Mamun, 2019). And, both psy contract and IPR forms a genuine psy bonding which guides the members of a team to develop good relationship and achieve desired outcome.

It is therefore realized that theoretically both IPR and psy contract develops principally in the psy realm of both leaders/ employer and led/ employee, and develops over a sustained period of time. The necessity of such protracted time is to develop mutual understanding and association, as the relationship undergoes different test and re-test (Akkas, 2019; Khaled, 2019). In the units, the relationship between officers and men is principally reciprocal and features conscious psy involvement, which develops through interaction by creating expectations and obligations for each other. But, the challenge of developing positive psy contract in the units is that soldiers are often unclear about what they want from the organization or what they can contribute to it. Similarly, some leaders are equally unclear about their own expectations (Shahed, 2019). A relational comparison of development of psy contract as theorized by Rousseau (1989) vis-à-vis development of IPR in the units of BD Army is compared in figure 4.

225 Psychological Contract: Towards Enhanced Interpersonal Relationship Between Officers and Men of Bangladesh Army

Figure 4: Development of Psy Contract and IPR in the Units Activities Stages of Development Activities (For Psy Contract in (As theorized by (For Developing IPR in Business Organization) Rousseau) Army) Psy contract is evaluated Evaluation of fulfilment and deci- and possibly revised Evaluation sion on the level of engagement Continuation slows down Attainment of rank and revision and changes may occur Maturity of expectation from the unit Continuation of promise ex- Joining a new unit and continua- change and comprehension Induction tion of relationship development Two way communication starts Two way communication starts with employer and employee Recruitment during recruit training Gather information about Individuals willing to join Army the organization and repu- Pre-employment gather information and develop tation expectation

Both military IPR and psy contract provides some indication of the answers to the two fundamental relationship questions that an individual poses: ‘What can I reasonably expect from the organization?’ and ‘What should I reasonably be expected to contribute in return?’ But it is unlikely that both the ends involved in establishing psy contract/ IPR will fully recognize each other, as both have different understanding and expectation which cannot be ascertained completely (Das, 2019). As an example, employees of a business organization expect security of employment, good wages, promotion opportunities, etcetera and in return the employers expect competence, effort, commitment, loyalty, etcetera. Whereas, in a military unit troops except recognition, reward, empathy, etcetera, but the officers expect trust, loyalty, commitment, etcetera (Ahsan, 2019; Rajib, 2014). But, despite the differences in expectations, one particular dimension unites both business and military: exchange relationship.

Ferdousi (2019) opined that the BD Army’s organizational hierarchy and relationship is more rigid and formal than any business organization. Therefore, psy contract is less likely to be effective in the Army units. On the contrary, most academicians and experts opined that psy contract can effectively function in an Army unit as the formation, development, and

226 purpose of psy contract and military IPR are alike. Both also continues to grow through formal and informal interactions (Akkas, 2019; Ahsan, 2019; Das, 2019; Matin, 2019). As an example, when employees have a strong, healthy psy contract with their employers, the entire company benefits; similarly, when officers and men of a unit possess good IPR the overall efficiency of that unit also increases significantly (Shams, 2018). More so, the key elements of both military IPR and psy contract are similar in nature, therefore when these elements are employed for similar purpose i.e. development of IPR, it is likely to generate similar outcomes. A comparative state of the elements of IPR and psy contract is linked in the following figure:

Figure 5: Elements of Psy Contract and IPR in Military

Common Elements Empathy Recognition Loyalty Motivation Teamwork Mutual Respect

Psy Contract Fairness IPR in Military Compassion Leadership Objectivity Cohesion Aspiration Interaction Dedication

In formulation of psy contract, employees expect the people in authority, especially their bosses, to develop not just work relationship, but also emotional connection through psy bonding. In the military, it was found that the under commands generally expect their officers to develop an informal relationship where both would be able to share sorrows, joys, experiences, and events in an open mind. In addition, if the command climate in the unit is congenial, a healthy psy contract between officers and men can be established which is likely to meaningfully improve the IPR in the units. In the current study (through subjective and objective analyses) few weak elements of IPR in the units of BD Army were identified. How establishment of positive psy contract can improve those weak elements are explained in the succeeding paragraphs:

227 Psychological Contract: Towards Enhanced Interpersonal Relationship Between Officers and Men of Bangladesh Army

One of the weak elements of IPR in the units of BD Army is lack of psy engagement and inspiration. Positive psy contract offers motivation to improve both individual and organization (Amorim, 2012). As such, if officers and men in the units can establish a positive psy contract between them, then it will enhance reciprocal appreciation of intrinsic behaviour. It was proved through interviews (Mamun, 2019; Aksar, 2019) and Focused Group Discussions (FGD) that positive psy contract will be capable of engaging the officers and men psy, and develop empathy, mutual trust, and recognition. Experts also opined that because of psy bonding officers and men are likely to be inspired, feel valued, and develop expectations (Rajib, 2014). And, expectation plus inspiration often produces greatness - the type of greatness everyone pursues for accomplishment.

The existence of misperception among the officers and men significantly affects the development of healthy IPR and also influences the process of personality formation. Psy contract can manage perceptions in a workplace (Walker, 2006) and when the contract is positive, it has the capability to increase job satisfaction and improve transparency through alteration. Transparency can boost morale and encourage the subordinates to participate in decision making which is likely to reduce prevailing misperceptions (Mihailovic, 2003). If officers pursue establishment of positive psy contract then instead of having numerous arbitrary interactions, they will learn the art of sending across their desired intent through limited but effective interactions (Manzoor, 2019; Das, 2019).

In military IPR, there is a lacking in motivation where affiliation is crucial. It is argued by Schein (1980) that psy contract is the most powerful tool to motivate people when they are used in the right context. If officers and men can establish a positive psy contract, it would encourage them to increase affiliation between themselves through formal and informal interactions (Shams, 2018; Ahsan, 2019). The study also revealed that when the leaders and led will be psy engaged, they will be fairer in judgement, will show increased interest in different events, and lastly, performed better as a team (Khaled, 2019). Positive psy contract therefore can improve interactions,

228 enhance relationship, improve motivation, and most importantly, boost overall performance of a unit.

Respect is the trust that develops among all the members of a unit and lack of it draws the breath of life out of the duty to be performed. Lack of respect in the Army is usually accompanied by lack of proper communication (Juan, 2013). The study deduced that positive psy contract can influence respect, communication, and job satisfaction. With positive psy contract both the leaders and subordinates feel secure, protected, respected; and it can also develop constructive communicational relationship among the members of a unit (Ahsan, 2019; Khan, 2019). Guest (1998) reiterated that mutual respect can be influenced not only by the organization’s culture but also by positive psy contract to shape individual perceptions. Anggraeni (2017) also argued that subordinates trust and respect towards the leadership is correlated with the expectation, relationship, and communication; and positive psy contract has the capability to fulfil expectations, develop relationship, improve communication.

In the units, officers and men train and prepare themselves for military operations by committing themselves unconditionally. Regrettably, there is a lack of commitment among officers and men of BD Army. Individual commitment to the service largely depends on the level of motivation, and according to social exchange theory (Blau, 1985) positive psy contract increases affective commitment and resultantly, members of the unit/ organization are more likely to feel obligated to reciprocate. On the other hand, job satisfaction in military affects performance and sense of belongingness (Judge et al, 2002). But, positive psy contract can improve organizational commitment and satisfaction, and lets an individual to understand others (Das, 2019; Akkas, 2019; Mamun, 2019). Therefore, if officers and men can establish a positive psy contract they would understand each other better and likely to feel more satisfied about each other’s conduct and resultantly remain committed.

Loyalty is the thread that binds all the actions together, and in military it extends beyond commitment and trust. The term ‘loyalty’ in Army differs

229 Psychological Contract: Towards Enhanced Interpersonal Relationship Between Officers and Men of Bangladesh Army significantly from business organizations. Psy contract can improve loyalty in a business organization, but because of the very distinct nature of loyalty in military, the impact of positive psy contract can be insignificant (Ferdousi, 2019; Das, 2019; Matin, 2019). Likewise, effective teamwork in military is literally a matter of life and death, and military leaders are taught to value teams over everything else. Historically armies have been victorious not because of individual acts of heroism but as a team (Kay et al, 2011). Though psy contract enables each team member to understand the perception of other members, it is widely opined that effect of positive psy contract on team performance is likely to be limited (Ahsan, 2019; Shahed, 2019). Gibbard et al (2017) also opined that because of the individual perceptive nature of psy contract the relationship among members of a team may progress, but likely to have fractional effect.

Figure 6: Probable Impact of Psy Contract on Weak Elements of Military 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

Level of Impact

IPR

Positive psy contract can result in an increase of engagement, positive attitude towards the profession, improved inspiration, and a psy bond of understanding between officers and men. Positive psy contract can also improve the other elements of IPR. For instance, it can enable the under commands to assess their value in a unit, which can help both leaders and led to avoid creating unrealistic expectations (Aksar, 2019). Positive psy

230 contract can also increase satisfaction, and subordinates can comfortably voice concerns/ ask questions, and know where to find the answers because of transparency, mutual trust, and openness (DelCampo, 2007). Lastly, psy contract can encourage adherence of military ethics and values being followed in BD Army and improve values like faith, justness, comradeship, etcetera in the units of BD Army (Elias, 2019).

Figure 7: The Alliance - Psy Contract

e Contract Consequences Makers Health of of the Contract the Contract

Performance

Ful lment of Expectation Psy Ocers Satisfaction Engagement Enhanced IPR Trust in the Units

Commitment Motivation Men Fairness

Conclusion

In Army, it is essential that all officers and men are trained and equipped for fighting war. The peace time affiliation and understanding in performing any task therefore aims to attain the desired capability of winning as a team. A unit’s endeavour to work as a team largely depends on leadership, unit environment, teamwork, discipline, traditions, commitment, etcetera. But all these are knitted by a single factor - IPR between officers and men. But, IPR being a psy bonding does not essentially develop only through formal agreement, instructions, or directives, rather mostly on mutual understanding, respect, recognition, psy connection, etcetera which are mostly intangible, informal and unwritten.

231 Psychological Contract: Towards Enhanced Interpersonal Relationship Between Officers and Men of Bangladesh Army

Measuring by three different types of indicators it is revealed that the current state of IPR in the units of BD Army needs substantial improvement. Elements like psy inspiration, perception, motivation, mutual respect, loyalty, teamwork, commitment, etcetera merits due attention. Such elements of IPR between employer and employee in business organizations is managed by establishing/ developing psy contract, which is an unwritten and informal agreement between the two. Such contract is based on promise, expectation, and obligation, which is not an imposed rather mutual relationship. The most important part of the contract is that it is less of imposed and more of mutual relationship. Resultantly, it develops through mutuality and reciprocity.

Benefits of positive psy contract are numerous, and it benefits employer, employee, and organization. The outcome of positive psy contract among officers and men is likely to address four basic pillars of IPR: communication, respect, trust, and loyalty. Positive psy contract is likely to address most the weak elements of IPR responsible for the current declining trend. One of the most important issue that can be addressed through positive psy contract is improved psy engagement and inspiration, which are the core elements of IPR in military. The way positive psy contract leads to more benefit of the organization, the same way good IPR between officers and men leads to better performance of the unit. Other elements of IPR like mutual trust, respect, recognition, satisfaction, etcetera is also expected to improve if officers and men can establish and maintain a positive psy contract. Few elements of military IPR like loyalty, dedication, teamwork, may not be significantly rejuvenated through positive psy contract as these elements are distinctly different in military in comparison to business organizations. Therefore, considering the correlation between psy contract and IPR, establishing a positive psy contract between the officers and men is likely to enhance most of the weak elements of IPR in the units of BD Army.

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234 Big Happy Family? Unravelling the Relationship between Shared Perceptions of Team Psychological Contracts, Person-Team Fit and Team Performance. Frontiers in Psychology, Issue 8. 22. Griffith, et al, (1988), The Essence of Military Group Cohesion. Armed Forces and Society Journal, Issue 33. 23. Grunig James E, Hon and Linda Childers, (1999), Guidelines for Measuring Relationships in Public Relations. 24. Guest, David E, (1998), On Meaning, Metaphor and the Psychological Contract: A Response to Rousseau. Journal of Organizational Behaviour. 25. Hasan, M., (2010), Interpersonal Relationship at Present Day Context. Army Staff Course, Defence Services Command and Staff College, Mirpur. 26. Haque, M. R., (2018), Lack of Psychological Inspiration not the Materialistic Benefit is the Principal Cause of Declining Interpersonal Relationship between Officers and Men in the Units, Army Staff Course, Defence Services Command and Staff College, Mirpur.

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235 Psychological Contract: Towards Enhanced Interpersonal Relationship Between Officers and Men of Bangladesh Army

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236 41. Schein, Edgar H, (1980), Organizational Psychology. Englewood Cliffs, New Jersy: Prentice-Hall. 42. Senge, P., Kleiner, A., Roberts, C., Ross, R., Roth, G. and Smith, B, (1999), The Dance of Change: The Challenges of Sustaining Momentum in Learning Organizations. Nicholas Brealey Publishing, London. 43. Shams, M. M, (2018), Interpersonal Relations Among Military Personnel and Its Effects on Regimental Performance, Armed Forces War Course Paper, National Defence College, Mirpur. 44. Shapiro Coyle, Jacqueline AM, and M. Parzefall, (2008), Psychological Contracts. The SAGE Handbook of Organizational Behaviour. 45. Shore, L. M., and L. E. Tetrick, (1994), The Psychological Contract as an Explanatory Framework. Trends in Organizational Behaviour. 46. Turnley, W.H. and Feldman, D.C., (1998), Psychological contract violations during corporate restructuring. Human Resource Management: Published in Cooperation with the School of Business Administration, The University of Michigan and in alliance with the Society of Human Resources Management.

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237 Psychological Contract: Towards Enhanced Interpersonal Relationship Between Officers and Men of Bangladesh Army

Author

Colonel Md Syeedur Rahman, afwc, psc was commissioned in the Corps of Artillery on 13 December 1996. He commanded a Field Regiment Artillery. He was a Grade 3 Staff Officer in a Composite Brigade, Grade 2 Staff Officer in Army Headquarters. As instructor he served in Bangladesh Military Academy as Platoon Commander and Directing Staff in Defence Services Command and Staff College, Mirpur. He also served under the blue helmet as a Staff Officer in the United Nations Mission in Ivory Coast. Besides military courses at home, he has undergone Advance Command and Staff Course in United Kingdom. He is a graduate of Defence Services Command and Staff College, Mirpur, and Armed Forces War Course from National Defence College, Mirpur.

The officer holds master’s degree from Bangladesh University of Professionals, Dhaka; Kings College, London; and University of Dhaka. He is currently perusing Master of Philosophy in Security and Development Studies under Bangladesh University of Professionals. Presently, he is serving as Colonel Staff of Welfare and Rehabilitation Directorate, Army Headquarters, Bangladesh.

E-mail: [email protected]

238 UNDERSTANDING AND SHAPING-UP SOLDIERS’ PSYCHE: A VITAL NEED FOR ENHANCING FIGHTING POWER

Lieutenant Colonel Kazi Nadir Hossain, afwc, psc, G+, Artillery

Introduction

Bangladesh Army (BA), since its inception during the glorious war of liberation (LW), is maintaining a successful track record at home and abroad. The success story started with the greatest victory over Pakistan Army in 1971. And it continued through the Counter Insurgency Operations (CIO) in Chattogram Hill Tracts (CHT), peace keeping/ support operations (PKO/PSO) under United Nations (UN), disaster management (DM), and so on. In fact, all these were possible mostly because of the professionalism of both the leaders and the led (Matiur, 2019). Indeed, at large, during LW, immediately after, and in last couple of decades, incidents of miscommunication were not witnessed in BA. However, endeavours must be continuous to maintain the same in future and shun off inappropriate incidents, even at negligible scale, in post- CIO/CIO, PKO/PSO and peacetime assignments.

BA pursued a set of core values during the historic LW, where compassion for each other, fellow-feelings, spirit-de-corps, sacrifice, mutual respect took the center stage. On 14 December 1971, just to recover the dead body of Birshrestha Captain Jahangir, his compatriot Siraj laid his life on the spot. When Siraj died without recovering the dead body, Sepoy Hayat Ali came forward, and sacrificed his life in the attempt (Qamrul, 2005). There are many incidents in 1971, where the runner took the bullet himself just to save his commander (Akram, 2019). In fact, Bangladesh won because of that “Fighting Power” predominantly constituted by “Morale

239 Understanding and Shaping-up Soldiers’ Psyche: A Vital Need for Enhancing Fighting Power

Component”, not the “Combat Power”. In future also, she can only win against any bigger adversary by applying superior “Fighting Power”.

Indeed, Bangladesh is destined to live with two militarily superior neighbours. One is trying to enhance her military capability to gain the status of “Regional Power”, if not a “Global Power” yet. The other neighbour is also trying to develop her armed forces. Her non-responsive attitude since last three decades coupled with uncivilized foreign policy against Bangladesh always conserved an unease. Overall, geo-political stature in the region including the stance of India and China during the recent “Rohingya Crisis” projects a further unhappy state. However, being a democratic, pro-people and peace-loving developing country, Bangladesh might not be able to field an equally large and equipped force, and challenge them in “Combat Power”. But, she could very well challenge and surpass them in “Fighting Power” by enhancing the “Morale Component” and developing her men psychologically.

In this reality, soldiers’ psyche need to be understood and shaped-up by officers, especially in particular domains, in line of national core values taking inspiration from LW. Unless this is done, inter-personal relationship, spirit-de-corps and overall performance of the military outfits both in peace and war would suffer. Contrarily, if that could be done well, morale of the troops would be increased by default, which ultimately would enhance BA’s overall “Fighting Power”. Because, morale is one of the three vital components of “Fighting Power” alongside physical and conceptual component (Easter, 2012). However, despite realizing the necessity, soldiers’ psychological domain is hardly discussed, let alone trying to shape-up the same based on requirement.

Review of Literature

Intekhab (2010) found that Contingent Commanders failed to make timely decision in number of occasions in UNPSO and the soldiers also failed to demonstrate appropriate attributes. Sayem (2016) argued on ethical

240 development of military leaders, found out the challenge areas and made some interesting suggestions. Rahman (2003) talked about visionary leadership pertinent to BA, related challenges and ways ahead. Ahmed (2001) researched on professional integrity and suggested appropriate measures to increase the same in BA. Haque (2004) argued on the professionalism of young officers and emphasized on their balanced grooming. Jahed (2016) researched on motivational tools to be applied on soldiers. He found absence of pride amongst led, lack of interaction between leaders and led, over commitment of the units, etc as the demotivational factors.

In regards to psychology and its relationship to human-being, Wachtel (1982) argued about the external influences and impacts of family on building one’s integrity and psychological domain in broader sense. Crosby (2008) argued on leadership qualities, which is value based, visionary and vigilant at all times. Thompson (2014) talked about ethics in uniform, which is mostly related to USA’s soldiers in Iraq. Paraschiv (2013) mentioned about the positives of interaction between leaders and their subordinates in determining success of a team in a hierarchical organization. Thomas and Taylor (2015) talked about psychological sickness and role of leadership. Bird (1917) researched on the psychology of the troops who joined in military and fought on ground during 1st WW. He argued on their behavior, thoughts, conduct and overall psychological build-up.

Rachman (1982) argued about the development of courage in military personnel through training and performance in combat situations. He used various tools for the research including demonstrated behavior of the military personnel and psychometric analyses. Pavlina & Filjak (2000) argued that misjudging the situation and unnecessarily exposing themselves or even the whole unit to danger are not instances of bravery, but of unnecessary exposure to peril. Williams (2010) argued for training on moral values and ethos, which makes direct contribution in shaping- up soldiers’ psyche. Simons (2017) argued on a few interesting facets of leadership bringing in the lingos ‘doing the right thing’ versus ‘doing it right’. Matthews (2014) talked about the importance of understanding

241 Understanding and Shaping-up Soldiers’ Psyche: A Vital Need for Enhancing Fighting Power the soldiers, whom the leaders command, before giving an order. This is especially applicable in the present day context when the led is driven by logic, not blind instructions.

Oxford Advance Learner’s Dictionary defined psyche as – “One’s mind, especially with regard to the deep feelings and attitudes that account for one’s opinions and behavior”. And both “deep feelings’’ and “attitude’’ actually shape one’s mind. That is why it is very important for a military leader to be thoughtful about the UC’s “feelings’’ and “attitudes’’. Another important and relevant term that comes side by side is psychology. Voss (1974) said, psychology is, “the scientific study of human behaviour.” Behaviour essentially means- “the observable characteristics of an individual organism.”

As per US DoD (2019), Combat Power is the total means of destructive and/or disruptive force, which a military unit/formation can apply against the opponent at a given time. It basically comprises of Physical and Conceptual Components of military. Physical component includes both equipment and training: the means to operate and fight; while conceptual component includes doctrine, education, lesson, etc: the ideas behind how to fight and operate. Again, “Moral Component” of warfare is the human element, which is the ability to get people to operate and fight (Easter, 2012). In fact, in combination with “Combat Power”, it constitutes the “Fighting Power”. Generally, operational success is dependent on “Moral Component” to a greater degree than equipment or tactics.

242 Figure 1: Components of Fighting Power. (Aziz, 2019)

Clausewitz said, “Loss of moral equilibrium must not be underestimated merely because it has no absolute value and does not always show up in the final balance. It can attain such massive proportions that it overpowers everything by its irresistible force. For this reason, it may in itself become a main objective of the action’’ (Howard, 1984). As such, while analyzing the war fighting capability of a particular force, “Fighting Power” must be considered with more importance than “Combat Power”. In fact, a nation with weaker “Combat Power” can come out stronger in “Fighting Power”, with overwhelming moral strength.

Research Methodology

This research is non-experimental and causal in nature. It followed an analytical methodology that was based on both primary and secondary sources of information. The study was carried out using qualitative- quantitative method. The theories, basic facts, information and evidence was examined from the literatures available in various books, journals, publications and internet sources. Different books, journals, previous research papers related to psychology, especially military psychology were consulted. Besides, both structured and un-structured interviews, field survey using both close and open-ended questions, Focus Group

243 Understanding and Shaping-up Soldiers’ Psyche: A Vital Need for Enhancing Fighting Power

Discussion, etcetera were carried out. Total 125 officers of the rank of Captain to Lieutenant Colonel, 90 Junior Commissioned Officers (JCO) and 290 Other Ranks (ORs) of minimum 10 years’ service were surveyed. Again, a good number of Freedom Fighters, very senior military leaders and other pertinent persons are interviewed. Related documents and Case Studies are also collected from different services/organisations/ institutions.

Results Soldiers’ Psyche, Human Need and Motivation

Human behaviour is always an exceedingly complex phenomenon. Since psychology is the study of human behaviour in relation to its environment, basic knowledge on the subject would always be helpful to military leaders in handling the UC. Indeed, there are many factors, which influence human psychology. These are socio-cultural environment, childhood grooming, youth, family life, heredity, organizational/parental motivation, etc. Military psychology is quite unique within the realm of human psychology. It predominantly includes courage, fear, panic, battle stress, battle shock, fatigue, psychiatric breakdown, battlefield isolation, moral, honour and pride, and interest. However, soldiers develop military psychology in the units through daily activities/informal training, and in the institutions through formal training.

An obvious and strong motivational component of behaviour is the requirements of satisfying the needs of human beings. A need may be considered as a basic requirement for individuals to survive (Voss, 1974). When a person is deprived from his basic needs, his instinct impels him to struggle for achieving that particular need. Another dimension of behavioural science is personal-social motivation. McClelland, a leading researcher on self-concept, has theorized that people are motivated by three basic needs: achievement, affiliation, and power. He further asserted that although every human possess all three needs, they possess them in

244 varying degrees. One person’s highest-priority need may be achievement, whereas another person’s may be affiliation or power.

Figure 2. The McCLELLAND Model. (Pamela, 2000)

Again, as per Maslow, human needs are organized in a series of 5 steps, where first two steps are survival needs to stay alive, and next two steps are social needs. In military, team spirit, group cohesiveness and esprit-de-corps fall under social needs. The last step comprises of the deeds of bravery and excellence of the soldiers. These are also valid in different degrees in military, though group/organizational needs are the priority here.

Figure 3. Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs. (McLeod , 2018)

245 Understanding and Shaping-up Soldiers’ Psyche: A Vital Need for Enhancing Fighting Power

Why to Understand and Shape-up Soldiers’ Psyche?

Officers need to understand soldiers’ psyche well to influence their behavior to some degree and shape-up their psyche as per military requirement. Soldiers with modified values, enhanced courage, renewed patriotism and total loyalty, resulting from shaped-up psyche, would contribute positively in war. The troops need technical moulding as well, where they would be required to handle sophisticated weaponry (Shafiqur, 2019). In the survey, 74% officers opined that shaped-up soldiers’ psyche would contribute positively in war.

Figure 4. Impact of shaping-up soldiers’ psyche on battlefield performance. Question: Would the soldiers with shaped -up psyche contribute positively in war?

80% 74% 60% 40% 23% 20% 3% 0% 0% Contribute Contribute Not sure/Any Won’t fully partially Other contribute at all

Besides, officers need to understand soldiers’ psyche precisely, since they would make supreme sacrifice on order from officers in the battlefield. However, not all would do so. Possibly, in that situation, shaping-up soldiers’ psyche would be necessary (Mahfuzur, 2019). In the survey, 88% officers, 89% JCOs and 91% ORs opined in the same line.

246 Figure 5. Impact of understanding soldiers’ psyche on ensuring supreme sacrifice. Yes May be 100% 88% 89% 91% 50%

12% 11% 9% 0% O cers JCOsORs

(Question: Is understanding soldiers’ psyche by the officers important for ensuring supreme sacrifice?)

Besides, soldiers of today generally lack in selflessness, honesty and integrity and commitment to the service. Their feelings of honour & pride from within seem to be declined as well, though there is no mathematical measuring gauge to confirm the same (Nazimuddin, 2019).

Tools to Understand and Shape-up Soldiers’ Psyche

Active listening, effective communication, coercive means, counselling/ motivation, study of soldiers’ background, etc are a few of the major tools to understand and shape-up soldiers’ psyche (Zahirul, 2019). As per Personnel Administration Directorate (2019), at present, 85% soldiers are recruited from rural areas. Again, 56% of them come out of either lower or lower middle class families.

247 Understanding and Shaping-up Soldiers’ Psyche: A Vital Need for Enhancing Fighting Power

Figure 6. Socio-economic background of BA Soldiers. Question: What is the socio-economic status of BA soldiers?

Lower Class, 3% Higher Middle-Class, 2%

Lower Middle-Class, 53% Middle Class, 42%

Ways to Shape-up Soldiers’ Psyche

Unit grooming, close supervision, motivation and interaction of the officers would remain as powerful means to shape-up soldiers’ psyche (Ridwanur, 2019). The survey reveals that officers prefer more or less all available means to shape-up soldiers’ psyche. However, JCOs prefer formal training at institutions (35%), informal on the job training at units (42%), and close supervision, motivation and interaction of the officers to do the same.

Figure 7. Ways to shape-up soldiers’ psyche in general. 0% Not sure/ Any Other 5% JCOs Through Rewards for all 0% Officers assignments 12% Through Strong system of 0% punishment 10% Through supervision/motivation/ 23% interaction of officers 40% Through on the job training at 42% units 12% Through Training at 35% centres/schools/institutions 21% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

248 In BA, some units are traditionally different than others. By default, they possess and maintain glorious legacy, comradeship, sound administration and high morale. All these, even unknowingly, shape-up new soldiers’ psyche over the time (Mahfuzur, 2019). Again, two most important officers’ character attributes required to motivate the soldiers and shape- up their psyche are Honesty and Integrity, and Care, Love and Fellow- feelings (28% each).

Figure 8. Vital character attributes required to motivate soldiers effectively. Question : As an officer, which character attribute of yours should be vital to motivate and shape-up psyche of the UC? Any Other/Not Sure 4% Impartiality and Justness 12% Grip on Professional Matters 16% Strong Personality 12% Care, Love and Fellow-feeling 28% Honesty & Integrity 28% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Besides, leadership quality develops through training, practice and experiences. Leaders to be technically skilled and conversant in almost all aspects of military profession (Mamun, 2019). In the survey, 71% officers either fully or partially agreed to that.

Figure 9. Requirement of training for officers on motivational skill. Question: Do you feel the requirement of training for officers on motivational skill?

Any Other 4% Not Sure 4% Don’t Feel the Requirement 21% Partially Feel 30% Strongly Feel 41% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

249 Understanding and Shaping-up Soldiers’ Psyche: A Vital Need for Enhancing Fighting Power

Discussion

Understanding and Shaping-up Soldiers’ Psyche as an Element of Fighting Power

Field Marshal Montgomery said, “Man is still the first weapon of war’’. In fact, the most formidable weapon in the battlefield as well. Men constitute the basic fighting force, whom the leaders lead. However, effectiveness of that formidable weapon can be purely conditional at most times. If the men are not understood by their leaders well, it’s not going to work at its optimum. Again, leaders underpin the moral component in war to drive their UC in the face of greatest difficulties. Hence, understanding and shaping-up soldiers’ psyche as an element of “Fighting Power” bear greater importance. In the research, it is vividly found that understanding and shaping-up soldiers’ psyche would surely enhance “Fighting Power”.

Understanding and Shaping-up Soldiers’ Psyche to Enhance Fighting Power

There is a great need for officers to understand soldiers’ psyche to motivate, direct and guide them properly at all times (Mamun, 2019). An officer will exactly know the capability of his men and their reaction in any changing situation, if he understands their psyche well. In that case, he would be also able to manage and lead them well both during war and peace-time. Besides, officers can up keep the soldiers’ moral by understanding their psyche and then acting according to the requirement/situation. Understanding soldiers’ psyche would also assist the leaders to appreciate both “Told and untold Requirements” of soldiers fighting on ground and make necessary arrangements in time. This would ensure smooth administration in the difficult time of war.

Indeed, there is no better means available to build up one’s ethical foundation than to shaping-up psyche. It is supposed to transform a soldier gradually from timid to brave, disloyal to loyal, carefree to committed, and most importantly from civilian to combatant. Soldiers with appropriately

250 mold psyche are likely to be fearless and charged with patriotism. In line of the discussion above, the following functional formulae can be devised: (developed by the researcher)

Figure 10. Functional Formulae of Fighting Power and Its Components.

In 1971, Bangladesh achieved victory against much superior Pakistani Forces because of overwhelming superiority in Moral Component. Even during the surrender, Pakistan had significant combat power to continue further fighting, but their Moral Component was fully diminished. Following graphs would clarify the same: (developed by the researcher)

Figure 11. Retrospective Analysis of Pakistan Forces’ Fighting Power (The Curved Blue Line).

251 Understanding and Shaping-up Soldiers’ Psyche: A Vital Need for Enhancing Fighting Power

Contrarily, Bangladesh Forces’ morale was at the vertex, which contributed to “Fighting Power” and ultimate victory.

Figure 12. LW 1971 - Retrospective Analysis of Bangladesh Forces’ Fighting Power (The Curved Blue Line). (Developed by the researcher)

In fact, after Operation Jackpot in August 1971, Bangladesh Forces overcome the “Fighting Power” of Pakistani Forces. (Developed by the researcher)

Figure 13. Influence of Fighting Power in LW 1971.

252 Desired Performance and Psyche of the Soldiers

Geographically and/or militarily smaller nations need better quality soldiers to defeat larger forces of the superior enemies. Here, both physical and psychological quality enhancement of the soldiers are equally important (Mamun, 2019). Considering these, following are desired from the soldiers of BA:

• Proficiency in defeating the enemy equipped with superior armaments. • Sustaining the nature and daily logistics odd against an overwhelming enemy under precarious condition. • Acting and making bold decisions independently in the face of EW and C2 difficulties. • Outwitting the enemy in every facet of militarism including planning, deception, intelligence, etc and offsetting his numerical superiority. • Fighting till the end with whatever armament, logistics and strength is available and inflicting casualty to enemy without surrendering. Against all odds, BA soldiers need to possess a psyche shaped-up appropriately to attain the following: • Be selfless fighters and have sustained bond, fellow-feelings and spirit- de-corps. • Be courageous and lethal, and have aggression, ambition and winner’s mindset. • Be patriots and have love, empathy and concern for the country and its people. • Be loyal to the command and have sustained mutual understanding, faith and confidence. • Have strength in character to embrace death before disgrace as the last resort.

253 Understanding and Shaping-up Soldiers’ Psyche: A Vital Need for Enhancing Fighting Power

Impact of Degraded Soldiers’ Psyche on Fighting Power

Degraded soldiers’ psyche/values, mostly in the domain of loyalty, courage, patriotism and honesty and integrity, would impact the “Fighting Power” negatively. The following construct would clarify the statement further:

Figure 14. Impact of Degraded Soldiers’ Psyche on Fighting Power.

Source: Developed by the researcher

Shaping-up Soldiers’ Psyche: Ways Forward

There is no division of opinion that soldiers’ psyche needs to be shaped-up in line of military requirements based on a set of values and present context. In doing so, appropriate tools to understand and shape-up psyche to be used by the leaders at all levels. However, human mind, vis-à-vis psyche is very delicate in nature and one should remain honest, committed and systematic in dealing with that. Shaping-up soldiers psyche is no way like any other routine military task. In fact, there has to be a deliberate planning, which should be scientific, progressive and extended over long duration. Hence, the guideline has to come from the top, may be from AHQ or at least from Formation HQ. Otherwise, the psyche shaping-up endeavour would not be an institutionalized and sustained one, rather it would be a sporadic action of some enthusiast unit commanders in bits and pieces.

Soldiers’ psyche can be shaped-up through different ways and means. The foremost way to do that is through systematically organized ‘On the

254 Job Training’ at units by NCOs, JCOs and officers. This would mostly include character building and shaping-up through group work, exercise and games & sports. However, officers must be intimately involved with soldiers and train and administer them by setting examples, providing suggestions and motivation in all exercise/operation/assignments. Besides, unit level leadership management can shape-up soldiers’ psyche indirectly by ensuring sound administration and man management. Creating a caring climate, maintaining high morale, applying rewards and coersive tools, generating sense of competition in the unit, promoting self-motivation in subordinates, etc are also important.

Soldiers’ psyche could be shaped-up by instilling self-esteem and ethos and values in their hearts and minds, and by mainstreaming those in every unit matters/activities. It influences soldiers’ attitude towards duty, discipline and honour. Self-esteem encourages soldiers to take risk and make them courageous. However, instilling self-esteem is a long-term process, for which the officers require high level of commitments and prudence. Besides, building unit level cohesion and providing independent responsibilities to soldiers would assist shaping-up their psyche.

During FGD, conducted in a military unit on 08 August 2019, JCOs and Other Ranks stated that, military soldiers join in the profession at a very early age. Hence, they need proper care, guidance and time to develop professionally. And only the officers can provide all those support to them. Hence, officers need to be patient to mould the UC gradually over the years, and it’s not a quick fix job. Close mentoring through effective interaction of the officers with the soldiers and supervising them in the process would assist shaping-up the soldiers’ psyche. Officers must listen to the soldiers, realize their problems by heart and then provide the right treatment. In the process, they would instill the values and ethos of BA in the soldiers’ mind and shape-up their psyche. Hence, officers need to be good motivator and trainers as well. They need to learn and master the art and science of motivation. They should know certain motivating factors that affect soldiers’ psychology, i.e. recognition, reward, job satisfaction,

255 Understanding and Shaping-up Soldiers’ Psyche: A Vital Need for Enhancing Fighting Power good leadership, fairness, justice etc. Beside motivation, counselling is a clinical and better way of motivating soldiers, though it’s a difficult job. Soldiers psyche can be also shaped-up effectively through formal training at centres/schools/institutions/ formations, etc.

‘Army/Formation Psychological Development Centre’ (APDC/FPDC) may be organized soon. APDC may be established under Army Training and Doctrine Command (ARTDOC) in Dhaka. This organization will continually analyze, monitor and assess the psychological and moral climate within BA, identify trends and drifts, and advise command channel with remedial measures. They will also provide required coaching, counselling, mentoring, and consultancy. Formations may run periodical cadres/short package training for young soldiers to build and shape-up their psyche in line of military requirement.

In fact, formal psychological training starts in the Recruit Training Centers (RTC), but in a different form. In most cases, those are not structured training, though quite effective in shaping-up the psyche. However, in the same FGD, soldiers viewed that, it is not possible to shape-up soldiers’ psyche in RTC within only one year. Whereas, indoctrinating soldiers’ psyche by imparting formal/institutional training is very important. Hence, some formal/ institutional training is requried to shape-up soldiers’ psyche over the time.

Finally, unless officers are properly groomed-up, soldiers cannot be employed and led well, let alone shaping-up their psyche. Hence, grooming-up young to mid-level officers is a prime requirement now. In fact, the officers to be training minded and must improve their character traits, communication and motivational skill and leadership quality. Hence, formal training is required for officers to improve on this.

Responsibilities at AHQ Level

AHQ should verify on-ground state of soldiers’ psyche through various training/non-training assignments, deliberate research, etc.

256 • There should be periodical “Psyche Audit” of BA soldiers with a view to finding out the gaps and mitigating those accordingly.

• “Psychological Test” during Soldiers’ Recruitment could be introduced.

• Avoid using statistics as a major method of evaluating units and motivating UC.

Conclusion

Understanding and shaping-up soldiers’ psyche by officers is essential for directing and controlling their attitude, behaviour and actions. If the psyche is understood well, and shaped-up accordingly, the Fighting Power would increase automatically. For that, officers must also set examples in everything. If one shows one’s subordinates how to act, he is teaching them at the same time. If he follows regulations and SOPs, he shows his subordinates that he expects regulations and policies to be followed. He also proves his own degree of self-discipline.

Despite hitches, sweat and blood given in PSO/PKO, sacrifice made by Captain (Shahid) Mushfiq in CHT, or the recent incidents of Atia Monjil in Sylhet, and Holy Artizan in Gulshan still bear the testimony of comradeship, patriotism and courage (Mashud, 2019). Hence, it can be argued that the time is not yet up, but very critical indeed, and the following needs to be looked after soon:

• “Character Building/Molding Cadre” for the soldiers and Leadership Training for officers may be organized regularly at formation level. Leadership training syllabus should include subjects on soldier’s psychology.

• Practicing BA set “Values and Ethos” must be mainstreamed.

• There should be periodical “Psyche Audit” of the soldiers of BA with a view to finding out the gaps and mitigating those accordingly.

257 Understanding and Shaping-up Soldiers’ Psyche: A Vital Need for Enhancing Fighting Power

• “Psychology Test” during recruitment may be carried out in some form to recruit soldiers with sound psyche filled with bravery, sacrifice and patriotism.

• Officers should develop a habit of studying soldiers’ psyche and remain directly involved in soldiers’ training/other activities.

• “Army Psychological Development Centre” under ARTDOC in Dhaka, and in situ ‘Formation Psychological Development Centre’ may be established.

References

1. Ahmed (2001), Shameem, Major, psc, Professional integrity-a need for tomorrow, Defence Services Command and Staff College, 2001.

2. Akram (2019), Kazi, Hossain, Saildah, Chitalmari, Bagerhat, Freedom Fighter, Sector Number 9, interviewed on 01 May 2019.

3. Aziz (2019), General Ahmed, BSP, BGBM, PBGM, BGBMS, psc, G, Chief of Army Staff, Bangladesh Army, Fighting Power of BA, presented to Course Members of AFWC-2019 on July 16, 2019.

4. Bird (1917), Charles, From home to the charge: a psychological study of the soldier, University of Illinois Press, 1917.

5. Crosby (2008), Robert, An Analysis of Leadership Behavior in Extreme Military Contexts, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California, 2008.

6. Easter (2012), P, Developing Leaders, Camberley, UK, 2012.

7. Haque (2004), Asrarul, ndu, psc Brigadier General, Young officers–a critical evaluation, Commander, Logistics Area, 2004.

8. Howard (1984), P., Carl Von Clausewitz On War, New Jersey, United States of America, 1984.

258 9. Intekhab (2010), Haider Khan, Infantry, Major, Challenges in decision making for Bangladeshi contingent commanders in United Nations peacekeeping operations, Defence Services Command and Staff College, 2010.

10. Jahed (2016), Muhammad Kamal, Lieutenant Colonel, A study on selected motivational tools and their implications on efficiency of Bangladesh army: Clues for the military leadership, Armed Forces War Course, 2016.

11. Mahfuzur (2019), Md, Rahman, SUP, rcds, afwc, psc, PhD, Lieutenant General, Principal Staff Officer, Armed Forces Division, Peoples’ Republic of Bangladesh, interviewed on 08 May 2019.

12. Mamun (2019), Khaled, Lieutenant General Sheikh, SUP, rcds, psc, PhD, Commandant NDC, Leadership in the 21st Century, presented to Course Members of AFWC-2019 on August 04, 2019.

13. Mashud (2019), Md, Razzaq, ndc, afwc, psc, Major General, Senior Directing Staff (Army), National Defence College, interviewed on 27 April 2019.

14. Matiur (2019), S M, Rahman, BSP, afwc, psc, Major General, General Officer Commanding, 24 Infantry Division, interviewed on 27 April 2019.

15. Matthews (2014), Michael D., Ph.D., 21st Century Military Leadership: The skills needed for effective military leadership have changed, United States Military Academy, 2014.

16. McLeod (2018), S. A., Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, retrieved on 13 June 2019 from, https://www.simplypsychology.org/maslow.html

17. Nazimuddin (2019), Md, psc, Lieutenant General, General Officer Commanding, Army Training and Doctrine Command, interviewed on 01 May 2019.

259 Understanding and Shaping-up Soldiers’ Psyche: A Vital Need for Enhancing Fighting Power

18. Pamela (2000), A. Braden, Lecture: McClelland’s Theory of Needs, Motivation Theory, retrieved on 14 June 2019 from, https://changecom.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/braden_ pamela_a-_2000_-_mcclellandc2b4s_theory_of_needs.pdf

19. Paraschiv (2013), Dorel, A review of leadership, An. St. Univ. Ovidius Constant_Vol. 21(2), 2013.

20. Pavlina (2000), Želimir & Filjak, Tomislav, Psychological model of soldier bravery, Ministry of Defence, Republic of Croatia, 2000.

21. Personnel Administration Directorate (2019), Soldiers’ Statistic, Army Headquarters, Bangladesh Army.

22. Qamrul (2005) Islam, Major (Retd), Jono Juddher Gono Joddha, 2005, p.45.

23. Rachman (1982), S. J., Development of courage in military personnel in training and performance in combat situations, Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences, University of London, 1982.

24. Rahman (2003), Major Ziaur, psc, Development of Bangladesh lies on visionary leadership-a model Bangladesh may adopt, Defence Services Command and Staff College, Bangladesh, 2003.

25. Ridwanur (2019), A S M, Rahman, afwc, psc, G, Brigadier General, Director of Military Training, Bangladesh Army, interviewed on 08 May 2019.

26. Sayem (2016), Abul Hasnat Mohammad, BGBMS, afwc, psc, Lieutenant Colonel, Ethical development of military leaders: an analysis to enhance professionalism, Armed Forces War Course, 2016. 27. Shafiqur (2019), Md, Rahman, SUP, afwc, psc, Lieutenant General, Chief of General Staff, Bangladesh Army, interviewed on 07 May 2019.

260 28. Simons (2017), Anna, 21st-century challenges of command: A view from the field, Strategic Studies Institute and U.S. Army War College Press, 2017. 29. Thomas (2015), Kate Hendricks & Taylor, Sarah Plummer, Bulletproofing the Psyche: Mindfulness Interventions in the Training Environment to Improve Resilience in the Military and Veteran Communities, Advances in Social Work, Fall 2015. 30. Thompson (2014), Megan M. & Jetly, Rakesh, Battlefield ethics training: Integrating ethical scenarios in high-intensity military field exercises, European Journal of Psych Traumatology, 2014. 31. US DoD (2019), Combat Power Definition, retrieved on 14 March 2019 from, https://www.militaryfactory.com/dictionary/military- terms-defined.asp?term_id=1056 32. Voss (1974), James F., Psychology as a Behavioural Science, Goodyear Publishing Company, California P. 6, 1974. 33. Wachtel (1982), Ellen F., The family psyche over three generations: The genogram revisited, Journal of Marital and Family Therapy, St. Luke-Roosevelt Medical Center, New York City, 1982. 34. Williams (2010), Kenneth R., Chaplain (Lieutenant Colonel), An Assessment of Moral and Character Education in Initial Entry Training (IET), Journal of Military Ethics, 9:1, 41, 2010. 35. Zahirul (2019), Md Haque, AEC, Lieutenant Colonel, Senior Psychologist, Inter Services Selection Board, interviewed on 27 April 2019.

261 Understanding and Shaping-up Soldiers’ Psyche: A Vital Need for Enhancing Fighting Power

Author

Lieutenant Colonel Kazi Nadir Hossain, afwc, psc, G+, Arty, was commissioned with 38 BMA Long Course in the Regiment of Artillery. He served in 4 different artillery units in different capacities. In the process, he commanded a minor and a major artillery unit in 3 different stations including Dhaka. In AHQ, General Staff Branch, he served as GSO-2 (operations) at Military Operations Directorate, and as GSO-1 at Staff Duties Directorate. He also served at HQ ARTDOC as GSO-1. Besides, he served in the prestigious CAS Protection Group under HQ ASU and at External Affairs and Liaison Bureau in HQ DGFI as GSO-2. He also served as Instructor Gunnery in the School of Artillery. He completed UN Mission in Liberia as a contingent member and in Force HQ, UNMISS as Chief of Evaluation Section.

The author attended Air Defence Gunnery Staff Course in Pakistan, Army Staff Course in Mirpur and Armed Forces War Course in NDC. He completed masters in 3 different subjects from University of Dhaka, University of Karachi and Bangladesh University of Professionals. He also completed Master of Philosophy (Part-I) in Security and Development Studies. He is author of 15 books. Besides, he has a good number of write ups in different military journals and national dailies. Presently, he is serving in HQ, DGFI as GSO-1.

E-mail: [email protected]

262 INTEGRATION OF UNMANNED AIRCRAFT SYSTEM (UAS) OPERATIONS IN BANGLADESH AIRSPACE BESIDES MANNED AIRCRAFT: CHALLENGES AHEAD AND SUGGESTED SOLUTIONS

Group Captain Md. Rafiul Huq, BPP, afwc, psc

“The Global Hawk has a range as far as 12,000 nautical miles at an altitude up to 65,000 feet flying at speeds approaching 340 knots for as long as 35 hours. Airspace that was traditionally shared between birds and piloted aircraft will now be rightfully penetrated by drones also”.

- (Sachdeva, 2015, p. 14)

Introduction

Technology is rapidly advancing providing humankind with easier and more efficient ways of completing tasks. UAS technology can also play an important role in benefiting the world. In future this technology will perform many tasks which are currently performed by humans. What is a UAS then? A UAS is a pilotless aircraft designed to be flown via radio link. The radio link connects the UAS to an operator on the ground. Various reasons have led to the proliferation of UASs. Massive industrialization, increased consumer interest in aviation, increased cross border military activity, spread of terrorism, civilian photography requirements, growing cost of manned aircraft, increasing cost of fuel, reduction of electronics cost, availability of powerful electronics and overall greater demand for aerial-focused work productivity have given rise to UAS proliferation (CBINSIGHTS, 2019).

263 Integration of Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Operations in Bangladesh Airspace Besides Manned Aircraft: Challenges Ahead and Suggested Solutions

When UASs operate in a common airspace besides manned aircraft, regulations are needed for the purpose of ensuring flight safety, air space management, collision avoidance etc. International Civil Aviation Authority (ICAO) has issued a manual on Remotely Piloted Aircraft System (RPAS) in 2015 (ICAO, 2015). The purpose of this manual is to apprise states of the emerging ICAO perspective on the integration of UAS into non-segregated airspace and at aerodromes, consider the fundamental differences from manned aviation that such integration will involve and encourage states to help with the development of ICAO policy on UAS by providing information on their own experiences associated with these aircraft. The Civil Aviation Authority of Bangladesh (CAAB) is primarily responsible to promulgate necessary regulations and guidelines to regulate UAS flying in the airspace of Bangladesh in line with the guidelines of ICAO as it is equally responsible for the same in regards to manned aircraft. CAAB promulgated an official circular on this issue titled ‘Civil Aviation Circular on Operating Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems’ in January 2019 (CAAB, 2019). The circular lays out the requirements, standards, practices and procedures that are applicable to the operation of UAS in Bangladesh airspace. The major shift of the CAAB circular from ICAO guideline is that CAAB has restricted the operations of UASs in Bangladesh into segregated airspace only, instead of allowing its operations in both segregated and non-segregated airspace. There seems to be other issues as well which need further details and clarification in the process of ultimate integration of UASs into manned aircraft domain.

However, it is only a matter of time that Bangladesh armed forces, law enforcing agencies and other civilian users begin to employ UASs in full swing. So, there are number of issues which should be addressed to integrate operations of UASs into Bangladesh national airspace in a manner so as to ensure the safety of other airspace users and people and property on the ground.

264 Literature Review

The flight safety issues in respect of UAS have been extensively studied by Dave Marcontell, an UAS industry expert, and Steve Douglas, a former Senior Executive for the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), USA (Forbes, 2018). According to their opinion, the aviation industry is on the way to a revolution due to the emergence of UASs. They stated that UASs are very useful in today’s world from inspecting power lines high in the air to analysing raging wild fires from a safe distance. Very soon UAS will be able to carry large cargoes for the commercial construction industry to even air taxi people. According to Marcontell and Douglas, currently FAA rules in the USA put severe limitations on UAS usage. They stated that technology needs to be developed that can take control of a UAS if it flies into unauthorized airspace. As per their opinion, certification of UAS operators is also an important aspect. However, their study is limited to USA perspective and mostly security issues in respect of UAS.

According to Harrison Wolf, a UAS industry expert and author for the World Economic Forum, governments around the world are more concerned about security rather than safety which is detrimental to the development of UASs (Forbes, 2019). Citing an example of the recent incident at Gatwick airport in UK, where a UAS sighting shutdown the entire airport, he said that governments want to know what type of UAS is being flown, by whom, for what reason and where it is being flown. The answers to these questions are becoming increasingly important for maintaining security. Wolf stated that what was necessary was clear rules for everyone and harmonized approach to both safety and security. However, he has not discussed anything about integration of manned and unmanned aircraft (UAS) operation issues which is the main concern of this study.

Wayne Lonstein, a cyber-security and technology expert discusses both the positive and negative sides of UASs (Forbes, 2018). According to his opinion, UASs are a classic example of how well-meaning technologies

265 Integration of Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Operations in Bangladesh Airspace Besides Manned Aircraft: Challenges Ahead and Suggested Solutions may be used by criminals and/or terrorists by being hacked, manipulated or directly utilized as a weapon of terror. At the same time, UASs have life altering benefits for mankind. In his write-up Lonstein cites retired U.S. Army Captain Dr. Hans C. Mumm, who stated that “Currently, there are no policies, governance or doctrines in place for the real-time identification and tracking capability that could offer reliable defences against collaborative teams of UASs.” However, the writer did not touch upon integration of manned and unmanned aircraft (UAS) operations issue.

Aviation legal specialist Jonathan Rupprecht, stated that in the USA, law enforcement agencies and prosecutors have not been trained to respond to UAS related incidents (Forbes, 2018). Rupprecht stated that a host of conflicting laws in the U.S. creates problems when it comes to UAS counter measures: detectors and defenders. Detectors use thermal and radar technology to warn against UAS, whereas defenders use kinetic or electromagnetic means to effectively knock out UAS from the air. Rupprecht states that it is not clear what law will be applied, who will prosecute or how to even approach the situation when someone uses his/her UAS in an illegal way. He concludes that it is not only technical limitations, legal vision is also lacking in protecting U.S. against any possible UAS attack. If we consider Rupprecht’s opinion is a true reflection of UAS related legal state in U.S., our (CAAB) legal state of affairs is equally fragile which demands major reform and it will be amply covered in this research in Bangladesh context.

According to commercial UAS industry researcher and analyst Colin Snow, 2019 may usher in new regulation from the FAA regarding remote identification of UAS (Forbes, 2019). This system will allow recreational and commercial UASs to be identified mid-flight. Remote identification will eventually allow an Unmanned Traffic Management (UTM) system to be established in the U.S. Colin Snow states that globally establishing a UTM will allow the full benefits of UAS to be realized. However, fulfilling the dream of a global UTM may be very difficult to realize as it will have

266 to overcome arduous political and legislative processes in every country individually. Like Colin Snow, UAS industry specialist Zacc Dukowitz stated that the development of UTM System is an important requirement for the safe use of UASs (UAV Coach, 2019). UTM System will allow UASs to be flown beyond visual line of sight without fear of collision within limitations set by the law. Though Bangladesh is far from establishing such a UTM system, the article has generated considerable interest in the mind of researcher to look for alternate technological solution to the problems of identification of UASs in Bangladesh.

The book titled ‘Airpower and Technology, Smart and Unmanned Weapons’ by David R. Mets, Pentagon Press, Prager Security International briefly mentions how the era of smart weapons and UAVs evolved in reaction to the outcomes of World War II and onset of the cold war. The writer also narrated how UAVs appeared with greater numbers and used in a variety of ways with great effect, including lethal effect during the Second Gulf War 2013. Though it cited many UAS operations conducted over Iraq from Mainland USA but did not mention anything regarding airspace management or integration.

The book titled ‘Unmanned Aircraft’ Brassey’s Air Power: Aircraft, Weapons System and Technology series, Volume 3 by Air Chief Marshal Sir Michael Armitage, Brassey’s Defence Publisher examines the past, present and future roles of unmanned military aircraft in modern warfare. It does not mention anything about integration of manned and unmanned (UAS) aircraft.

Research Methodology Research Design

It was an exploratory research aiming to identify the challenges in integrating UAS operations in Bangladesh airspace and suggest operationally feasible flying procedures addressing the loopholes in existing system. It was also an initial research on a newly-identified issue in Bangladesh context.

267 Integration of Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Operations in Bangladesh Airspace Besides Manned Aircraft: Challenges Ahead and Suggested Solutions

Data Collection Instrument and Tools

The study utilizes different types of Data Collection Instruments which are as follows:

Purposive Sampling

Qualified personnel from the aviation sector of Bangladesh whohave knowledge and experience on the issue have been interviewed using open ended questions to collect primary qualitative data.

Structured Survey Questionnaire

A questionnaire mostly with close ended questions was presented to respondents for data collection. Total twenty two respondents took part in the survey all being BAF officers experienced in air operations including UAS operations at home and in UN mission areas. Respondents were allowed to respond on Likert Scales as well as Multiple Choice Questions. This instrument provided primary quantitative data.

Focus Group Discussion (FGD)

Group discussions were held to discuss, elaborate and borne out the challenges of UAS operations in Bangladesh airspace. The group discussions were focused solely on UAS operations in Bangladesh besides manned aircraft in a common airspace. This instrument was planned to provide primary qualitative data.

Published Procedures, Manuals and Analyses

UAS regulations of other countries were studied to form a comparative analysis to highlight relevant learning points and best practices that may

268 be adopted or considered. This method provided valuable secondary qualitative and quantitative data.

Sampling Method

A Purposive Non-Random Convenience Sampling technique is used with an objective to gather expert opinion and not statistically viable data from a massive population. Respondents were selected on the criteria of having operational experience/interest in UAS.

Data Analysis Method

Qualitative data collected via interview was assessed through critical discussion, comparison and content analysis. The quantitative data collected via structured questionnaire was analysed using statistical technique in SPSS such as standard deviation and central tendency analysis.

Different Components of UAS

Before going into the details of UAS operations, it is felt necessary to highlight on the components of an UAS. A UAS operates due to the collective performance of a system of systems (ResearchGate, 2006). The UAS by itself cannot perform its intended function and instead has to rely on a combination of human and technical factors to make it work. If any one of these sub-systems fails, the UAS will become non-operational. The sub-systems/components are shown in figure 1.

269 Integration of Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Operations in Bangladesh Airspace Besides Manned Aircraft: Challenges Ahead and Suggested Solutions

Figure 1: Components of an UAS

Source: Royo, 2006)

Identifying Challenges in UAS Operations in Bangladesh CAAB Circular on UAS: Facilitating or Impeding Regulations?

UAS operations in the airspace of Bangladesh are governed by CAAB circular promulgated in January 2019. The circular issued by CAAB was pursuant to Section 14 of Civil Aviation Act 2017 with an intention to ensure safety in Civil Aviation. The circular provides information, instructions, requirements, procedures and standards for the operation of UASs in the airspace of Bangladesh. Interested individual/organization shall apply for a Special Flight Operations Certificate (SFOC) for the operation of UAS for any professional, recreational and/or non-recreational purposes such as aerial photography, geomantic surveying, crop observation, advertising, and research and development. The circular states that understanding and complying with the conditions contained in it is essential for conducting a ‘safe UAS operation’. It appears that too much of safety concern imposed unwanted restrictions on UAS operations which are clumsy and impracticable to abide by (Ziaul Haque, 2019).

270 As part of the survey questionnaire, opinion was sought to learn what are the likely impediments of integration of operations of UAS with manned aircraft in Bangladesh airspace that the respondents think? Almost 82 percent of respondents opined that CAAB is too much concerned about the flight safety of manned aircraft and unwilling to take any challenge and risk in taking any step for integration of UAS and manned aircraft flying. So, the question arises, does the concerned CAAB circular (Issue 01/2019) facilitate UAS operations or impede? Whereas ICAO clearly expressed its expectation on the national authorities around the world that they would promulgate necessary guideline which would facilitate UAS operations in non-segregated/non-restricted airspace and aerodrome besides manned aircraft to gradually integrate UAS with manned aircraft.

Comparative Analysis of CAAB Circular with Regulations of other Three Countries

To understand how much it is conducive and facilitating to the UAS operations, the aforesaid CAAB circular on UAS (Issue 01/2019) was compared with the similar circular of other three Asian countries which is tabulated below. The UAS operation in India is regulated by ‘Civil Aviation Requirement, Section 3 - Air Transport, Series X Part I, Issue 1 dated 27 August 2018’ which is issued from the office of the Director General of Civil Aviation. The UAS operation in Japan is regulated by ‘Japan’s safety rules on Unmanned Aircraft (UA)/Drone’ which has been issued on 10 December 2015 by Civil Aviation Bureau under Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism. And the UAS operation in Singapore is regulated by the ‘Regulation on Unmanned Aircraft Operations’ which is issued by Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore (CAAS) and updated on 28 November 2018.

271 Integration of Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Operations in Bangladesh Airspace Besides Manned Aircraft: Challenges Ahead and Suggested Solutions Singapore 200ft 5km Not specified (sufficient) Not specified 5km Not mentioned Not specified Japan 492ft 9km 98ft Must 9km Not mentioned 500,000 Yen India 400ft 5/3km 2km Must 5/3km Specified with full details Necessary action as per Aircraft Act 1937 1934 / Rules Bangladesh 200ft 9.26km 1000ft Must 18.5km Specified with full details Not specified Criteria Comparative analysis ofComparative of CAAB Circular with Regulations other Countries Maximum allowable allowable Maximum operating height clearance Minimum distance from KPIs clearance from Minimum building, structure, vehicle and person to for UAS Requirement be within visual line of sight (VLOS) of the pilot clearance from Minimum aerodrome Pilots Training for not following Penalty law UAS 01. 02. 03. 04. 05. 06. 07. Ser Table 1: Table

272 Singapore Not specified No Not mentioned Not mentioned No No 01 Japan 10 days before 10 days operation No Not mentioned Not mentioned No No 02 India 7 working days 7 working (Digital Sky Yes Platform) 25km 500m Not beyond from the coast Yes No 13 Bangladesh 60 days before 60 days operation No Not mentioned Not mentioned No Yes 8 Criteria Submission of application for for obtaining approval operation system for Automated obtaining permission Clearance from international border Sea operation ofRequirement Unique Identification Number (UIN) Insurance for damage to 3rd party resulting from accident/incident of number Total pages in law the UAS 08. 09. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. Ser

273 Integration of Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Operations in Bangladesh Airspace Besides Manned Aircraft: Challenges Ahead and Suggested Solutions

Suggested Sample Integration of UAS Operations in Bangladesh Airspace Introduction

At the moment, there are only few civil organizations operate UAS in Bangladesh airspace. But as more users like Bangladesh Army, Navy and Air Force and other commercial users will be entering into the domain with more demanding requirements, the existing regulation of CAAB may not suffice. So, instead of keeping the operations of UASs limited into segregated airspace, steps may be taken by CAAB to integrate their operations into national airspace besides manned aircraft.

Before getting into a total integration in near future, this paper suggests to implement sample integration of UAS into national airspace with the spirit of ICAO call of integrating UAS operations with manned aircraft. It is learnt that Bangladesh Air Force (BAF) will be one of the pioneer organizations in Bangladesh to operate UASs for military-specific roles (Sitwat Nayeem, 2019). So, as test-case basis CAAB may accord necessary authority to BAF to operate UAS in two Air Traffic Service (ATS) routes/ corridors designated for UAS operations in the national airspace – one in between Bogura and Tejgaon and another in between Bogura and Jashore.

UAS Flight between Bogura - Tejgaon Airfield

Air Traffic Services (ATS) for an UAS flying from Bogura to Tejgaon airfield may be provided by the concerned ATS Units in following manner. BOGURA TWR (5nm, 4000ft) will issue Start up, Taxi, Take-off clearance and other ATS within the Aerodrome Traffic Zone (5nm, 4000ft).

274 Figure 2: Bogura ATZ (Aerodrome Traffic Zone)

4000´

Twr 5 NM

Source: Author

After 5nm from Bogura airfield the RPA will get the ATS from Dhaka Control (ACC) if outside of BAF training areas (VGR) or might get necessary assistance from Bogura Radar Unit (BRU) if within BAF training areas (VGR). If Dhaka control is not reachable over radio, nearest traffic may be asked to pass information. Dhaka control may be communicated over telephone from UAS ground station for necessary ATS instructions. Own position may be broadcasted to alert other traffic around the UAS.

The UAS may follow appropriate ATS route or any designated corridor for flying into destinations. For example, while flying in between Bogura and Tejgaon, UAS may use Saidpur-Dhaka route (W-3).

Figure 3: ATS Route/Corridor designated for UAS Operations between Bogura and Tejgaon Airfield

Bogura Twr Dhaka ACC ACAACC

RPS 1 RPS 2 RPS 3 1

RPA

Source: Author

275 Integration of Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Operations in Bangladesh Airspace Besides Manned Aircraft: Challenges Ahead and Suggested Solutions

Approaching Dhaka Terminal Control Area (FL460/FL055, 50nm) the UAS should make positive radio contact with Dhaka control and get all the necessary ATS instructions.

The UAS further proceeds towards Dhaka airfield and if still above FL055 then it will be handed over to Dhaka approach control area (ACA). In case it is below FL055 and within 25nm of Dhaka airfield then it will be handed over to Dhaka Tower.

Figure 4: Integration within Dhaka Terminal Control Area (TMA), Control Zone (CTR) and Aerodrome Traffic Zone (ATZ)

FL 460 TMA

RPA FL 150 ACA

RPA FL 055 RPA

RPA DAC CTR 25 NM 50 NM DAC TWR GND/WATER

Source: Author

Dhaka ACA/Tower will separate the UAS from manned traffic and after clearing the VGHS (Hazrat Shahjalal international airport) it will be handed over to Tejgaon Tower.

276 Figure 5: Avoiding Traffic of VGHS for Landing N

W E

S RPA

RPA

14 DAC TWR

32 RPA 3 NM

17

TEJ TWR

35

Source: Author

Tej Tower (R185-285/1000ft) will provide necessary ATS instructions within its jurisdiction and issue landing clearance.

UAS Flight between Bogura - Jashore Airfield

ATS for an UAS flying from Bogura to Jashore airfield may be provided by the concerned ATS Units in following manner. BOGURA Tower (5nm, 4000ft) will issue Start up, Taxi, Take-off clearance and other ATS instruction within the ATZ (Aerodrome Traffic Zone, 5nm, 4000ft).

277 Integration of Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Operations in Bangladesh Airspace Besides Manned Aircraft: Challenges Ahead and Suggested Solutions

Figure 6: Bogura ATZ (Aerodrome Traffic Zone)

4000´

Twr 5 NM

Source: Author

After 5nm from Bogura Airfield the RPA will get the ATS from Dhaka control (ACC) if outside of BAF training areas (VGR) or might get necessary assistance from 75 Squadron BAF radar if within BAF training area (VGR). If Dhaka control is not reachable over Radio, nearest traffic may be asked to pass information. Dhaka control may be communicated over telephone from UAS station for necessary ATS instructions. Self- position may be broadcasted to alert other traffic around the UAS.

Figure 7: ATS Route/Corridor designated for UAS Operations between Bogura and Jashore Airfield

Bogura Twr Jashore Twr

RPS 1 RPS 2 RPS 3

RPA

Source: Author

278 BAF radar station will hand over the UAS to Jashore Tower while exiting the training area. Jashore TWR will provide necessary ATS instructions within its jurisdiction and issue landing clearance.

Figure 8: Jashore ATZ (Aerodrome Traffic Zone)

4000´

Twr 5 NM

Source: Author

While operating in an aerodrome or inside ATZ (Aerodrome Traffic Zone) the UAS pilot should always have visual contact with the UAS.

Findings and Recommendations Findings

Following the worldwide trend, UAS operations in Bangladesh are gaining momentum. So, this is the high time to evaluate the existing regulations and other physical arrangements required for UAS operations in the national airspace of Bangladesh. With this spirit, this research tried to find out the areas that need due attention of the regulators and other stakeholders.

• CAAB circular (Issue: 01) promulgated in January 2019 imposed strict restrictions on UAS operations. Too much of flight safety concern (for manned aircraft) drove the regulators in promulgating unfavourable regulations to UAS operations in Bangladesh.

279 Integration of Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Operations in Bangladesh Airspace Besides Manned Aircraft: Challenges Ahead and Suggested Solutions

• ICAO clearly expressed its expectation on the national authorities around the world that they would promulgate necessary guideline to facilitate UAS operations in non-segregated/non-restricted airspace and aerodrome to facilitate gradual integration of UAS with manned aircraft (ICAO circular 328, AN/190, 2011). But the CAAB circular kept the UAS operations limited to segregated/restricted airspace only. 68 percent of the respondents opined that with the increased UAS operators and variety of roles and tasks, UAS operations in Bangladesh can not be restricted to segregated airspace only.

• The maximum allowable operating height for UAS in Bangladesh is 200 ft which is more restrictive in comparison to that in India and Japan. India allows maximum 400 ft and Japan almost 500 ft. Such restriction inhibits the opportunity of integration of UAS with manned aircraft into the national airspace because most of the helicopters and other manned aircraft operate at and above 500 ft either during take- off/landing or low flying. So, keeping UAS and other manned aircraft separated by 300 ft will not allow them to fly closer and, hence, achieve ultimate integration.

• On security ground, a UAS has to maintain a minimum safe distance of 9.26 km from any KPI in Bangladesh. India, being a country more susceptible to security threat than Bangladesh allows an UAS to fly even 5 km closer to any KPI. Singapore also allows an UAS to fly 3-5 km closer to a KPI. CAAB limitation (9.26 km) is likely to put undue constraint on UAS operators considering the smaller geographical area and constricted airspace of Bangladesh.

• The CAAB rule in Bangladesh demands that UAS to keep a minimum lateral clearance of 1000 ft from building, structure, vehicle or person; whereas in Japan it is only 30 m or 98 ft. This limitation is unrealistic considering Bangladesh’s densely populated urban areas. Such restriction will limit the space of UAS operations in Bangladesh.

280 • As per CAAB circular, UAS requires to be within visual line of sight (VLOS) of the pilot while operating. This limitation would restrict the scope and coverage of UAS operations in Bangladesh. 72 percent of the survey respondents opined that UAS operators in Bangladesh can not achieve their mission objectives by operating within VLOS as prescribed by CAAB.

• In Bangladesh a UAS has to maintain a minimum clearance from aerodrome by 18.5 km from the perspective of flight safety and security. This distance is much more than that in India, Japan and Singapore. All three countries comparatively having more manned flights and UAS activities than Bangladesh kept this safe distance within 3-9 km. An FGD amongst the operational branch officers of BAF concluded that such restriction will limit the space of UAS operations in Bangladesh and integration process as well.

• Obtaining approval for UAS operations in Bangladesh is lengthier in comparison to that in Japan and India. In Bangladesh, the operator has to apply for approval 60 days prior to the date of operation, whereas in Japan this time is 10 days and in India 07 working days only. Such lengthy approval process reflects a bureaucratic mind-set inhibiting smooth UAS progress in Bangladesh.

• CAAB circular consists of Eight pages, whereas Japan’s one is two pages and Singapore’s one is single-paged. It is convenient for anyone to comprehend the UAS laws of Japan and Singapore than our one.

• Clause 3 (m) of the CAAB Circular states, “A person conducting (UAS) operations shall immediately produce any of the documents and/or information listed in condition (I) above to a local authority, police officer, or CAAB inspector upon request.” The documents mentioned in condition l include CAAB permission (SFOC) to fly UAS, proof of insurance coverage, name-address-telephone number of the operator and a copy of the UAS operating limitations as published by

281 Integration of Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Operations in Bangladesh Airspace Besides Manned Aircraft: Challenges Ahead and Suggested Solutions

the manufacturer. CAAB does not have any mechanism to ensure or check whether UAS operators in Bangladesh comply with the above- mentioned rules or not. • Existing CAAB circular does not have any provision of security clearance for the UAS pilots which may lead to breach of security. One of the survey questions asked the respondents to give opinion on the requirement of bringing the UAS pilots under security clearance procedures. Hundred percent respondents opined in favour. • Existing CAAB circular does not have any provision of penalty for the breach of regulation whereas UAS regulation of Japan includes a penalty of 500,000 Yen for not following UAS law. Provision of financial penalty discourages users to break the law. • As per CAAB circular (condition 4 x), any UAS cannot be flown if it has the following payloads: explosive or corrosive payloads, bio- hazardous material, bright light emitting (laser) payloads, payloads that can be jettisoned or dispersed. CAAB does not have any mechanism to ensure compliance of the rule.

Recommendations

In the previous paragraphs, existing impediments in the process of integration of UASs with manned aircraft in the national airspace of Bangladesh have been identified. Following recommendations are made to mitigate those challenges: • Fight safety may be given due importance while promulgating regulations for UAS operations by CAAB instead of attaching excessive importance to it and, thereby, hindering ultimate UAS-manned aircraft integration in the airspace of Bangladesh. • UAS may be equipped with collision avoidance/see-and-avoid mechanism like ADS-B (Automatic Dependant Surveillance- Broadcast) or similar devices like manned aircraft.

282 • IFF (Identification of Friend or Foe) equipment may be installed in UAS to identify and locate UAS electronically and automatically. • To clearly and readily identify a UAS in the air, system similar to UIN (Unique Identification Number) may be introduced in Bangladesh. • CAAB and concerned stakeholders may organize training for the UAS pilots and ATC controllers on ASM integrating operations of UAS with manned aircraft. • CAAB may introduce security clearance for the pilots of UAS conducted by appropriate security agencies of the government. • CAAB may amend the existing circular to incorporate provision of financial penalty to discourage the UAS users to break the law and maintain flight safety and security measures. • CAAB in coordination with BTRC may plan for the allocation of frequencies/bandwidth for the smooth operation of UAS in Bangladesh. • Sample integration of UAS operations into the non-segregated/non- restricted airspace of Bangladesh besides manned aircraft which has been shown and described in this research may be authorised by CAAB to be tried by BAF initially.

Conclusion

Any reform cannot be done overnight as it takes time. So, CAAB should initially promulgate necessary guidelines to effect integration in a limited scale and scope and then gradually widen the scope to cover more detailed integration. More so, unless some sorts of integration is tried, CAAB may not be able to learn what are the difficulties likely to appear when CAAB will be required to do so in near future. Keeping this in mind, initially UAS operations may be limited to some specific airfields where traffic congestion is less.

283 Integration of Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Operations in Bangladesh Airspace Besides Manned Aircraft: Challenges Ahead and Suggested Solutions

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284 9. K. Balakrishnam, J. Polastre, J. Mooberry, R. Golding, and P. Sachs, (2018), Blueprint for the sky: The roadmap for the safe integration of autonomous aircraft, Airbus UTM, [online]. Available at: http:// storage.googleapis.com/blueprint/Airbus_UTM_Blueprint.pdf (Accessed: 01 June 2019).

10. knight, Ben, (2017), A guide to military drones, DW, [online]. Available at: https://www.dw.com/en/a-guide-to-military-drones/a-39441185 (Accessed: 07 June 2019).

11. Lonstein, Wayne, (2018), Drone Technology: The Good, the Bad and the Horrible, Forbes, [online]. Available at:https://www.forbes.com/ sites/forbestechcouncil/2018/01/22/drone-technology-the-good- the-bad-and-the-horrible/#4ed289ae41fb (Accessed: 01 June 2019). 12. Marcontell, Dave and Douglas, Steve, (2018), Why the Use of Drones Still Faces Big Regulatory Hurdles, Forbes, [online].Available at: https://www.forbes.com/sites/oliverwyman/2018/09/10/why- the-use-of-drones-still-faces-big-regulatory-hurdles/#753255fa1c0d (Accessed: 01 June 2019). 13. Maxim Egorov, Vanessa Kuroda, Peter Sachs, (2019), Encounter aware flight planning in the unmanned airspace, Airbus UTM. 14. Mets, David R. (2009), Airpower and technology smart and unmanned weapons. 1st edn. Westport: Praeger Security International. 15. Munson, Kenneth. (1988), World unmanned aircraft. 1st edn. London: Jane’s Publishing Company Limited. 16. Pastor, Lopez and Royo, (2006), A Hardware/Software Architecture for UAV Payload and Mission Control, ResearchGate [online]. Available at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication_A_HardwareSoftware_ Architecture_for_UAV_Payload(Accessed: 07 June 2019). 17. Pomerleau, Mark, (2015), Future of unmanned capabilities: MALE vs HALE, Defense Systems, [online]. Available at: https://defensesystems.

285 Integration of Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Operations in Bangladesh Airspace Besides Manned Aircraft: Challenges Ahead and Suggested Solutions

com/articles/2015/05/27/uas-male-vs-hale-debate.aspx(Accessed 07 June 2019). 18. Read, Bill, (2017), Life-saving drones, Royal Aeronautical Society, [online]. Available at: https://www.aerosociety.com/news/life-saving- drones (Accessed: 08 June 2019). 19. ResearchGate. (2006), ‘ Hardware/Software Architecture for UAV Payload and Mission Control, [online] Available at: https://www. researchgate.net/publication/224057242_A_HardwareSoftware_ Architecture_for_UAV_Payload_and_Mission_Control. (Accessed: 7 June 2019). 20. Rupprecht, Jonathan, (2018), Ability to Stop Drone Attacks in U.S. Is Lacking, and It’s the Legal Vision as much as the Tech, Forbes, [online]. Available at:https://www.forbes.com/sites/ jonathanrupprecht/2018/12/21/gatwick-airport-drone-shutdown- counter-drone-technology-law/#3332a45f53ad (Accessed: 01 June 2019). 21. Sachdeva, G.S. Ph.D. (2015), Drone operations - a Jurislogue. 1st edn. New Delhi: KW Publishers Pvt Ltd. 22. Smith, Josh, (2016), Afghan drone war – data show unmanned flights dominate air campaign, Reuters, [online].Available at:https://www. reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-drones-exclusive (Accessed: 08 June 2019). 23. Snow, Colin, (2019), Seven Trends that will Shape the Commercial Drone Industry in 2019, Forbes, [online]. Availableat:https://www. forbes.com/sites/colinsnow/2019/01/07/seven-trends-that-will- shape-the-commercial-drone-industry-in-2019/#4c1282ea7494 (Accessed: 01 June 2019). 24. Turbo Squid. (2019), UAV Mobile Ground Control Station [online]. Available at:https://www.turbosquid.com/3d-models/3d-airbase- uavs-ground-control-model/846596. (Accessed: 15 June 2019).

286 25. Vincent, James and Gartenberg, Chaim, (2019), Here’s Amazon’s new transforming Prime Air delivery drone, The Verge,[online]. Available at: https://www.theverge.com/2019/6/5/18654044/amazon-prime- air-delivery-drone-new-design-safety-transforming-flight-video (Accessed: 07 June 2019). 26. Wolf, Harrison, (2019), Is it a Bird? Is it a Plane? Is it a Bomb? Security concerns hold back Drones, Forbes, [online]. Available at:https:// www.forbes.com/sites/worldeconomicforum/2019/03/26/is- it-a-bird-is-it-a-plane-is-it-a-bomb-security-concerns-hold-back- drones/#754267242653 (Accessed: 01 June 2019).

Author

Group Captain Md Rafiul Huq, BPP, afwc, psc was commissioned in Bangladesh Air Force (BAF) on 03 July 1991 in Air Defence Weapon Control (ADWC) branch. He has attended number of professional courses at home and abroad. He has obtained Bachelor of Arts from National University. He is a graduate of Defense Services Command and Staff College, Mirpur, Dhaka. He has also obtained Masters in Defense Studies (MDS) from the National University Dhaka. Group Captain Md Rafiul Huq had a good mix of command, instructional and staff appointments. He served in different capacities in various operational radar squadrons and training institutes of BAF. He has commanded number of Air Defence Radar units of BAF. He has also served twice in the UN Missions at DR Congo and Haiti as contingent member. His hobbies include travelling and reading books. Presently he is commanding an Air Defence Radar Unit of Bangladesh Air Force.

Email: [email protected]

287 FULL RANGE LEADERSHIP FOR ENHANCED OPERATIONAL PROFICIENCY OF THE UNITS OF BANGLADESH ARMY

Colonel M A Saadi, afwc, psc

“The idea behind full range leadership is that there exists a constellation of leadership styles or behaviors, ranging transformational behaviors to laissez-faire leaders. Think of the full range leader as equipped with a comprehensive toolbox, selecting the leadership style or behavior that is most conducive to any situation or context.”

- Bruce Avolio.

Introduction

Full range leadership theory is a prominent representative of the new theories that have occupied center stage in leadership research in the last few decades. Full range leadership developed right away from the work of James MacGregor Burns. In 1978, Burns claimed that leadership was either transactional or transformational (Stafford, M., 2010). As Conger and Kanungo (1998) noted, “the difference between transformational and transactional leadership is in terms of what leaders and followers offer one another”. Transactional leaders lead through social exchanges; transformational leaders develop their followers and motivate and/or inspire them to achieve astonishing levels of success. This last offering was critical as it explained those situations in which followers exceeded all expectations to achieve success. Noteworthy is the relationship between transformational leadership behaviors and military leadership challenges (Stafford, M., 2010). There is a high rate of probability that military personnel might lose their lives while performing their assigned missions. Therefore, no transaction can explain continued sustained performance in the face of such a risk. Military personnel fight and take astounding risks for other motives too. They are driven by motivations. Esprit-de-corps,

288 comradeship, patriotism, pride, these are all qualities that do not fit neatly into leadership theories of the past but are afforded a place of honour in the transformational portion of the full range leadership.

The uniqueness of the full range leadership model lies in the concept of a “range” of leadership behaviors which all leaders demonstrate (Paul Kirkbride, 2006). Rather than insisting that one must lead “like this”, the full range leadership model makes the point that what is required is a change in the balance of leadership behaviours, away from the more transactional and more towards the transformational. The full range leadership relates transactional and transformational leadership style with a laissez-faire leadership style. Much of the literature on the full range leadership argues that leadership is a continuum, stretching from laissez-faire leadership, at the lowest level of leadership, to idealized influence at the highest level (Stafford, M., 2010). This approach argues that transformational styles are better than transactional and that individual styles within the major subsets are also ranked. Contingent reward, for instance, is thought by some researchers to be superior to management by exception (Antonakis, 2002). Such an approach is challenging for military leaders. In the vast majority of situations, military leaders will find themselves confronted with a wide variety of leadership challenges. Some can be handled appropriately and effectively employing transactional behaviors. Others will require transformational behaviors. Empowering the under-commands also is an important issue nowadays to meet challenges. The same leader will have to be able to apply all simultaneously to achieve success.

Problem Statement

A lot of discussion, research, and practices are prevailing to find the right leadership style for enhancing operational proficiency. Researchers and professionals are examining various leadership and motivation theories and functions. Transformational leadership is sharp, but double-edged. Pseudo-transformational leadership has a potential immoral and unethical dimension that could be exploited by a deceitful leader inflicted on naive

289 Full Range Leadership for Enhanced Operational Proficiency of the Units of Bangladesh Army and unsuspecting followers (Homrig, 2001). Widespread criticism of transactional leadership technique is its impact on employee motivation, creativity, and performance. Some of the traits that transactional leaders employ might decrease engagement and employee self-motivation. Again, the motivational level in respect of laissez-faire is low because of not interference of management (Chaudhury and Javed, 2012). At this backdrop, full range leadership may be more appropriate to deal with the under-commands as well as excel them for future employment with enhanced effectiveness for Bangladesh Army in an operational environment characterized by volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. Therefore, the researcher examined the impact of full range leadership within the major units of Bangladesh Army intending to determine its contribution towards enhancing operational proficiency.

Literature Review

The main theories that emerged during 20th and 21st century include the Great Man theory, Trait theory, Process leadership theory, Style and Behavioral theory, Transformational, Transactional, and Laissez- Faire leadership theory (Seters and Field, 1990). The literature revealed that the transactional style retards creativity and can adversely influence employees’ job satisfaction and performance (Nawaz and Khan, 2016). However, Transformational leadership links with positive outcomes on an individual as well as organizational levels. Transformational leaders embolden followers to attain higher-order needs like self-actualization, self-esteem (Bass, 1985), and are influential in surging followers’ motivation in the direction of self-sacrifice and achievement of organizational goals over personal interests (Bass, 1995). Leaders with Idealized Influence demonstrate heightened concerns and cognizance of followers’ needs and generate a sense of shared risk-taking (Jung et al., 2008). Inspirational Motivation affords a cradle of encouragement and challenges followers to achieve the set goals, whereas Intellectual Stimulation inspires followers to be more creative and innovative in their problem-solving skills. The

290 application of both styles varies from situation to situation and context to context. The situations entailing a high degree of precision, technical expertise, time-constraints, particularly in a technological intensive environment, management shall prefer transactional leadership whereas, in the human-intensive environment, where the focus is on influencing the followers through motivation and respecting their emotions based on common goals, beliefs and values, the preferable option is transformational leadership style (MacGregor Bums, 2003).

Avolio & Bass (2002) has included a volume of 28 cases in a casebook. In each case, the focus is on the leadership style of the key players. The cases were chosen to present all facets of a model of leadership, which says that the most effective leaders are both transformational and transactional in their leadership style. They highlighted specific people who exemplify the various styles and orientations regarding a full range leadership potential. Some of the leadership profiled exhibit certain components of leadership to a much greater extent than they do other components. Follow-up investigations have shown that developing transformational leadership with training in its four components can enhance a leader’s effectiveness and satisfaction (Avolio and Bass, 2002). Transformational leadership was higher among Marine Corps commanders of more highly effective helicopter squadrons than those of less effective squadrons (Salter, 1989). Naval officers who were rated as more transformational by their subordinates earned from their superiors both recommendations for early promotion and better fitness reports than did those officers rated as less transformational (Yammarino & Bass, 1990).

The transformational leadership styles identified within the full range leadership are highly correlated with leader and follower’s performance and, full range leadership model is a critical component to build transformational capability (Paul Kirkbride, 2006). It was concluded that the full range leadership is an adaptive approach to leadership. The best leaders develop their abilities and use them appropriately, individually, and in concert with one another, as the situation dictates (Stafford, 2010). Research discloses

291 Full Range Leadership for Enhanced Operational Proficiency of the Units of Bangladesh Army that transformational leadership can enhance transactional leadership approaches in ways that improve follower satisfaction and performance (Bass and Riggio, 2006).

Identification and engagement fully mediate the relationship between transformational leadership and organizational citizenship behaviors (Buil, Martínez, E. and Matute, 2019), whereas engagement partially mediates the link between transformational leadership and job performance. Results indicate a sequential mediation effect of identification and engagement on employee performance. Similar research was not carried out in a military environment. Leadership ratings collected from military units operating under stable conditions could predict the subsequent performance of those units operating under high stress and uncertainty (Bass and et al, 2003). Both transformational and transactional contingent reward leadership ratings of platoon leaders and sergeants positively predicted unit performance (Bass, and et al, 2003). Therefore, it can be assumed that unit performance can be predicted with full range leadership model as well.

Research Objective

The objective of this research is to examine the influence and contribution of full range leadership for enhancing the operational proficiency of the units in Bangladesh Army.

Significance of the Research

This research will significantly contribute in understanding the gamut of leadership with an emphasis on full range leadership for the leaders of the major units of Bangladesh Army. The research findings will help them to understand its relevance in the army environment, its contribution in enhancing operational proficiency, and over the top to create a positive command climate in the unit. At the same time, the study will also provide

292 the Commanding Officers an acumen on challenges of the units and the attributes essential to address whose challenges for enhancing the operational efficiency.

Research Methodology

This is a non-experimental descriptive type of research. For a deeper understanding, both quantitative and qualitative methods were applied. The study was carried out based on data from available sources. Efforts were made for the content analysis of the existing literature including previous researches on the subject, documents, related books, journals, periodicals, newspaper articles, and open sources like online publications and internet, survey, case study, structured and unstructured key informant interviews and Focus Group Discussion (FGD). Data analysis was based on frequencies, descriptive, correlation (bivariate) using Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS)-version 20 (Chicago. IL) and Microsoft Office Excel (2007), and that is represented by graphs, charts, and tables. Qualitative data from interviews, FGDs, and open-ended survey questions were analyzed by thematic analysis.

Full Range of Leadership Model

Military leadership is unique and different. It requires exercising command, applying leadership, and employ management techniques necessary for success in the battlefield; deal with the complexity, uncertainty, ambiguity, risk, violence, and dangers; while constrained by time (GSTP 0030, 2013). As a result, leadership theories like trait theory, behavioral theory, situational theory, path-goal theory, participatory leadership, authoritative leadership, transactional leadership, transformational leadership, and so on have evolved (GSTP 0030, 2013), but fallen short in explaining a ‘Full Range of Leadership’ styles, ranging from the charismatic and inspirational leaders to avoidant laissez-faire leaders (Avolio, 1999; Bass, 1998).

293 Full Range Leadership for Enhanced Operational Proficiency of the Units of Bangladesh Army

The Theory in Brief

According to Bass and Avolio (1994), the full range leadership theory comprises nine factors reflecting three broad classes of behavior: Transformational leadership, with five distinct factors (1. Idealized influence - attributed; 2. Idealized influence - behaviors; 3. Inspirational motivation; 4. Intellectual stimulation; 5. Individualized consideration); Transactional leadership, with three distinct factors (1. Contingent reward; 2. Management-by-exception active; 3. Management-by-exception passive) and Laissez-faire leadership (Antonakis & House, 2002). Figure 1 shows a snapshot of the overall leadership gamut and the concepts of the full range leadership model. Transformational leadership is inspirational, intellectually stimulating, challenging, visionary, and development-oriented (Bass, 1992). Transactional leadership, in its passive form involves waiting for mistakes to occur before taking action - it is called ‘Management by exception – passive’ and is regarded as part of the Passive/Avoidant leadership style. In its active form, of either ‘Management by exception active’ or ‘Contingent reward’, it involves close monitoring of behaviors and actively setting standards. Laissez-faire leadership is typical for managers who avoid involvement. It is passive, avoidant, and ineffective.

Figure 1: Full Range of Leadership Model (Bass & Avolio, 2004)

294 Transformational Leadership

In 1978 James McGregor Burns first introduced the term transformational leadership. However, Dr. Avolio identifies three major components of full range leadership: transformational leadership, transactional leadership, and non-transactional (laissez-faire) leadership (Huse, 2003). In order to better understand the relevance of transformational leadership, the following five criteria are used to establish a basis and framework for evaluation and understanding (FM 22-100, 1999).

Idealized Influence Attributed (IIA)

A transformational leader with idealized attributes shows a feeling of strength and inevitability and can promise others that they can overthrow obstacles. They will generally discuss their most significant values and beliefs and the importance of trusting one another. They underline an aggregate mission and note the importance of having a strong sense of purpose.

Idealized Influence Behaviors (IIB)

Idealized influence envelops practices that ingrain pride in followers for being connected with the leader - frequently meant or synonymous with charisma. It demonstrates that a leader will go beyond their self-interest for the larger benefit of the team and make individual sacrifices for others’ advantage.

Inspirational Motivation (IM)

Recognizes leaders with good faith, and in particular, an achievable perspective of the future. They talk about what should be practiced, yet express certainty that those objectives will be accomplished. An individual who utilizes inspirational motivation likewise makes an energizing picture of what is central to consider. This kind of motivational behavior empowers

295 Full Range Leadership for Enhanced Operational Proficiency of the Units of Bangladesh Army a feeling of cooperation, creating general enthusiasm - particularly towards tough challenges.

Intellectual Stimulation (IS)

Leaders are constantly visualizing new ways and strategies of thinking, and empowering creative contemplations and ideas of the subordinates. It infers that transformational leaders look for varying viewpoints when taking care of issues, and get others to take a look at those issues from an alternate perspective too. The individuals who use intellectual stimulation also encourage non-conventional reasoning and propose better approaches to looking at how to complete assignments. They regularly reconsider critical assumptions to address if those assumptions are proper and precise.

Individualized Consideration (IC)

Encouraging and stirring individual reasoning and thoughts by putting a value on individual needs and criticalness. Those transformational leaders who show individualized consideration invest time coaching and teaching their followers, and in doing so, promote self-development. They treat others as individuals, instead of just group members, and recognize the contrasting needs, capacities, and yearnings for those individuals. Transformational leaders utilizing individualized consideration focus on others’ interests and help to build up their qualities.

Transactional Leadership

The transactional style of leadership was first described by Max Weber in 1947 and then by Bernard Bass in 1981. This style is most often used by the managers. It focuses on the basic management process of controlling, organizing, and short-term planning. Transactional leadership involves motivating and directing followers primarily through appealing to their

296 self-interest. The power of transactional leaders comes from their formal authority and responsibility in the organization. The main goal of the follower is to obey the instructions of the leader. The leader believes in motivating through a system of rewards and punishment. If a subordinate does what is desired, a reward will follow, and if he does not go as per the wishes of the leader, a punishment will follow. Here, the exchange between leader and follower takes place to achieve routine performance goals.

Contingent Rewards (CR)

Transactional leaders link the goal to rewards, clarify expectations, provide necessary resources, set mutually agreed-upon goals, and provide various kinds of rewards for successful performance. They set SMART (specific, measurable, attainable, realistic, and timely) goals for their subordinates.

Management by Exception Active (MBEA)

Transactional leaders actively monitor the work of their subordinates, watch for deviations from rules and standards, and taking corrective action to prevent mistakes.

Management by Exception Passive (MBEP)

Transactional leaders intervene only when standards are not met or when the performance is not as per the expectations. They may even use punishment as a response to unacceptable performance.

Laissez-faire (LF)

The leader provides an environment where the subordinates get many opportunities to make decisions. The leader himself abdicates

297 Full Range Leadership for Enhanced Operational Proficiency of the Units of Bangladesh Army responsibilities and avoids making decisions and therefore the group often lacks direction.

Leadership Challenges of Units of Bangladesh Army and Expectation from the Leaders

The future battlefield environment will be characterized by complexity, uncertainty, ambiguity, risk, violence, and danger. Mission challenges of the military in the 21st century are more complex and dynamic: the pressure of limited resources, increased accountability and challenges of leading a more diverse workforce (GSTP 0030). Challenges of the 21st Century leadership will stem in from societal change, a new technology and information revolution, organizational change, a new paradigm of leader-follower relation (Bass, 1990). Armed Forces, being an inseparable part of our society, are also affected by these factors. In this hindsight, the researcher unveils the emerging challenges for the operational proficiency of the units alongside the expectation from the commanders.

Challenges of Leadership for Enhancing Operational Proficiency Identification of the Perceived Challenges

A total of 30 challenges were initially identified through literature review and content analysis. The relevance of the challenges was further validated through a survey. This part of the survey was intended for officers (those practice leadership at different levels). This part dealt with the challenges of leadership and perception of the leaders on the said challenges. Feedback of key informant interviews and FGDs were added. Based on survey data analysis, following challenges are found significant as per statistical data analysis using Mean (Benchmark 3.5). The summary and findings of these responses are delineated in Figure 2.

298 Figure 2: Summary and Findings of Responses on Challenge as per Mean Statistics 5 4 3 Statistics

lues 3.455 3.727 3.532 3.416 3.740 3.494 3.416 3.649 3.610 3.468 4.104 3.377 3.429 3.805 3.623 4.805 3.792 3.377 3.429 3.325 Mean 3.675 3.325 3.636 3.701 3.792 3.545 3.156 3.312 4 3.481 Va 2 Std. Deviation 1 0 Standard of Ph La ck Less in Av Zero-er Centralized command C1 1 Gap betw Erosion of va Absence of La ck La ck Socio-economic c Under Expectation of Materialistic view C6 Effecti Inadequate leadership in the unit C8 Less exposure to combat situation C1 Less team orientation C1 La ck Moti Spontaneousness in unit affairs C2 Fo La ck Inter La ck Gradual fall in Esprit-de-co rp Non-committal to job C2 In hallenging/arduous job C2 vo rious commitment C1 cus on higher education C2 ysical fitness C2 oidance of lv of of of of va of of personal relationship C2 -commands’ decreasing interest in ement in ev ve vo tion to ror syndrome C1 responsibility C3 0 empo Initiati competiti vision or coac comm lv een the officers and soldiers C1 militar ement of core officers in the unit fo training C1 hing and monitoring C2 responsibility C9 wa we ve indi unication C7 rds job C1 ch rm C4 ve go ent mana y ethos and 9 an ge vidual attention C5 ent C3 spirit C1 8 officer C2 al for unit C2 1 C2 6 5 4 0 7 5 ge 7 2 ment C1 s C2 4 0 va 8 lues C1 3 6 9 r 3 2 Variables

• Motivation towards Job. • Spontaneousness in Unit Affairs. • UC’s Materialistic View. • Inadequate Leadership in the Unit. • Zero Error Syndrome. • Centralized Command. • Erosion of Military Ethos and Values. • Absence of Core Officers in the Unit. • Standard of Training. • Less Exposure to Combat Situation. • Less Team Orientation. • Involvement in Event Management. • Gradual fall in Esprit-de-Corps. • Socio-economic Change. • UCs’ Decreasing Interest in Challenging/Arduous Job.

The Expectation from Leadership for Enhancing Operational Proficiency

The expectations from the future leaders are likely to be high which might be difficult for the leaders to meet. In this research, expectations from the future leaders were surveyed in line with the attributes of the full range

299 Full Range Leadership for Enhanced Operational Proficiency of the Units of Bangladesh Army leadership. FGD and key informant interviews were tallied with the survey result. The subsequent paragraphs describe expected leadership qualities to mitigate the challenges identified. Vision

A leader needs to have a clear goal and vision based on the organizational goals and his leadership philosophy. Leaders give vision, purpose, and objective for the UCs. To do as such, leaders ought to comprehend the general objective of the unit, and afterward interpret those in the near term and long-term goals. This will decrease the impact of uncertainty and unexpected. A leader with a sharp vision can manage the leadership challenges and lead UCs right way. Quantitative analysis (Figure 3) and qualitative analysis both strongly suggested the need for a vision.

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Intellectually superior UCs are expected to be driven by motivation rather than strict and hard command climate. One of the parts of transformational leadership is the inspirational motivation that portrays lifting the desire by the leaders, imagining an achievable future, give challenge to UCs, nonstop interaction, and the urge to think big for group interest. (FM 22-100, 1999). Survey result displayed that how far leaders agree for positively motivate UCs to feel proud to be part of the unit, encourage UCs to acclimatize with

300 changing situations, personally interact with UCs, and provide purpose, challenge, and attainable goal. Figure 4 displays the summary of the survey response and that strongly suggested the need for IM for leaders:

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301 Full Range Leadership for Enhanced Operational Proficiency of the Units of Bangladesh Army

New generation UCs are better educated and well-informed than before. Therefore, leaders are required to stimulate UCs to utilize their intellect, creative mind, and innovation. Officers are additionally expected to inspire the UCs to think about various perspectives of an issue and express individual opinions and motivation to hold the initiative. The cumulative response of the commanders on this issue is shown in Figure 5 which strongly suggests that the leaders should offer IS:

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Individual Consideration

Diverse individual merits separate consideration dependent on particular characteristics, limitations, and capabilities. Leaders need to think about

302 every individual sentiment, capacities, and goals, and allocate tasks based on that. Future leaders are expected to give individual consideration to every individual UC. Figure 6 displays the survey response.

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Idealized Influence

The main charisma of a leader is to influence his UCs to act as per desired end state. Being a ‘role model’ is a precondition for winning the heart of UC. The expectations from the leaders are he should be a role model, should take some level of risk for the betterment of UCs, praise the UCs when required, recognize the improvement of UCs, and encourage them to perform better. The survey data is shown in Figure 7.

303 Full Range Leadership for Enhanced Operational Proficiency of the Units of Bangladesh Army

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304 Interactive

Leaders should be and consistently expected to be in close touch with the UCs. To be a successful leader, he ought to be accessible to his UCs at all time, should maintain face to face communication whenever possible, should include junior leaders in important decision-making, and keep everybody informed about the latest circumstance. The response of the survey is shown in Figure 8 to augment this demand from leaders.

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Decisive, Confident and Ethical Decision-making

Leaders are relied upon to settle on a decisive decision on which UCs will act upon. The decision should be based on sound moral and ethical standards

305 Full Range Leadership for Enhanced Operational Proficiency of the Units of Bangladesh Army to gain confidence to his UCs. A leader can acquire the confidence in his UC through mutual trust and remaining sensible. Figure 9 portrays the response to different attributes.

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306 Empowering

UCs of future days will be educated and dependable. Having a decent quantity of JCO/NCOs in the units, they are not really utilized for any significant assignment. The reason being leaders on occasion would prefer not to assign some responsibility to UCs with a dread of a misstep. But leaders should prepare their UCs to take higher responsibilities, delegate some power to practice their ingenuity, make them equipped, and build up their quality. Figure 10 shows the response to empowering UCs.

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307 Full Range Leadership for Enhanced Operational Proficiency of the Units of Bangladesh Army

Influence of Full Range Leadership on Operational Proficiency of Units

The researcher identified 24 factors through content analysis, FGD, and key informant interviews. Basing on the factors, the researcher surveyed to find the most relevant factors for enhancing operational proficiency of units. Here, a mean 3.5 is considered for selection. Then, correlation between factors and expected leadership attributes was established by Correlation Bivariate and Thematic Analysis. Finally, the impact of full range leadership on operational proficiency in units was found out by analyzing leadership styles of selected leadership (Commanding Officers) and their unit performance in Fitness Inspection (FI).

Factor Contributing Better Operational Proficiency of Units Analysis of the Factors

A survey response was asked on the factors contributing to better operational proficiency. Figure 11 shows the response of the commanders of different levels on the factors.

Figure 11: The Response of the Commanders of Different Level on the Factors Contributing Better Operational Proficiency of Units Statistics Mean 5 4 3 lues

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308 Commanders at different levels agreed on following factors contributing better operational proficiency (mean 3.5 and above): job satisfaction, individual effort, state of morale, esprit de corps, cohesiveness, loyalty, positive command climate, empowerment, satisfying human needs, good interpersonal relation, values and ethos, mission-oriented command, motivation, the charisma of the leaders.

Indicators of operational proficiency of units are also validated from key informant interviews. The data were further analyzed to identify the significance of each factor as per ‘Mean’ and ‘Standard Deviation’. Standard Deviation of some of the factors was found more than 1, which are discarded from the list due amount of variation or dispersion. Figure 12 presents the outcomes.

Figure 12: ‘Mean’ and ‘Standard Deviation’ of the Factors Contributing Better Operational Proficiency of Units

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Therefore, the factors contributing to better operational proficiency stand as followings:

• Job satisfaction • Esprit de Corps • Satisfying human needs • State of morale

309 Full Range Leadership for Enhanced Operational Proficiency of the Units of Bangladesh Army

• The charisma of the leaders • Individual effort • Positive command climate • Good interpersonal relation • Empowerment • Motivation

Analysis of Leadership Styles of Selected Commanders and Operational Proficiency of Units

A few Commanding Officers (CO) and units were studied thoroughly to find out practical effect of full range leadership on operational proficiency. Performance in Fitness Inspection (FI), games and sports, discipline state, efficiency of drivers give a picture of CO’s leadership quality and unit’s operational proficiency. The overall mark obtained in FI of the year 2017 and 2018 by the units has been considered. Total 08 top scores and a total of 05 bottom scores units were under study. Leadership style of the COs of those units is analyzed as per the Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire (MLQ).1

Case Study of Leadership Styles of Selected COs

The unit’s performance during FI is identified from FI reports. Now, one by one, the leadership styles of the CO of those units are examined. In this regard, the MLQ (set of 45 questions) was served to them. The survey displays what type of leadership style they followed during their command of the unit. Two case studies are discussed omitting identities.

1. The Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire™ (MLQ—also known as MLQ 5X short or the standard MLQ) measures a broad range of leadership types from passive leaders, to leaders who give contingent rewards to followers, to leaders who transform their followers into becoming leaders themselves.

310 Case Study-1 (Top Scorer in FI)

• Name of CO: Omitted intentionally. • Unit: Omitted intentionally. • Date of FI: 25-26 February 2018. • Marks obtained in FI: 80.40%. • Operational Proficiency: 193/240 (80.42%). • Training Proficiency: 130/160 (81.25%). • Number of MT Accidents in the last 12 months: Nil. • Court Marshal and Punishment: 06 Minor Punishments. • Achievement in Games and Sports: Shown in the table.

Table 1: Performance in Games and Sports Games and Sports Competition Training Competition Champion Runner up Champion Runner up Football, Firing, Basketball, -- -- Water Polo, Bayonet Azan & Kerat Fighting

Analysis of the Leadership Style of CO

• Based on MLQ survey, the individual reflected as transformational leader which is expected from a good CO. • The CO scored fairly high in Contingent Reward (CR) and moderate in Management-by-exception: active (MBEA). The officer possesses the attributes of transactional leadership but insignificant. • The statistics show that the unit performed equally well in FI both operational and training aspects under this CO. • The unit’s achievements in games and sports were remarkable. There was no record of MT accident during the last 12 months which speaks about the efficiency of the drivers and discipline state was satisfactory with only a few minor punishments.

311 Full Range Leadership for Enhanced Operational Proficiency of the Units of Bangladesh Army

The Accumulated Result of Top Scores

Leadership styles of the nine COs of top scorer units are analyzed. The accumulated result is shown in Figure 13. More or less all the COs have the attributes of Transformational and Transactional styles but lack attributes of LF which is desirable.

• A higher score in IIB than IIA indicates that they are charismatic but put greater attention on frequently talking about important values and beliefs. They specified the importance of having a strong sense of purpose, considered the moral and ethical consequences of decisions, and emphasized the importance of having a collective sense of mission. • A very good score in IM says us that the officers behaved in ways that motivated others by providing meaning and challenge to their followers’ work. Enthusiasm and optimism aroused individual/team spirit. He could articulate a compelling vision of the future and expressing confidence that goals would be achieved. • A moderately high score in IS shows that they stimulated followers’ efforts to be innovative and creative by questioning assumptions, reframing problems, and approaching old situations in new ways. • The leaders scored moderately in IC which indicates that they paid satisfactory attention to each individual’s need for achievement and growth. Individual differences in terms of needs and desires are to be recognized. The leader needs to spend more time teaching and coaching and help others to develop their strengths. • They need to improve in MBEA and should actively monitor the work of the employees and take immediate corrective actions when something goes wrong while performing. • The COs scored very low grade in MBEP and almost zero in LF attributes which are expected from them.

312 Figure 13: Graph Showing Pattern of Leadership Style of Top Scorers 5HVXOWRI7RS6FRUHU  0HDQ 0HDQ 0HDQ 0HDQ 0HDQ 0HDQ 0HDQ 0HDQ 0HDQ 



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Case Study-2 (Lowest Scorer in FI)

• Name of CO: Omitted purposefully. • Unit: Omitted purposefully. • Date of FI: 28-29 Mar 2017. • Marks obtained in FI: 62.95%. • Operational Proficiency: 77.08%. • Training Proficiency: 77.81%. • Number of MT Accident: Nil. • Court Marshal and Punishment: 14 Minor Punishments. • Achievement in Games and Sports:

Table 2: Performance in Games and Sports Games and Sports Competition Training Competition Champion Runner up Champion Runner up Nil Nil Nil Boxing

313 Full Range Leadership for Enhanced Operational Proficiency of the Units of Bangladesh Army

Analysis of Leadership Style

Moderate score in the attributes of transformational leadership. The CO scored high in CR and MBEA. The officer possesses the attributes of transactional leadership intensely. The leader scored low in MBEP and LF. However, he did not avoid getting involved when important issues aroused. Seldom he reacted when it was necessary and demonstrated that problems must become chronic before taking actions.

The Accumulated Result of Low Scorers

Leadership styles of five COs of low scorer units are examined. The accumulated result is shown in Figure 14. More or less all the COs have the attributes of Transformational with lower ‘mean’ score and Transactional styles with a better ‘mean’ score.

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314 Discipline State as an Indicator of Performance

For a unit, discipline state is the indicator of UCs state of morale, the effectiveness of the leadership, and UCs motivation. The COs of the best- scored units in FI under consideration were able to reduce the breach of discipline in the unit. However, there can be a few exceptional cases where standards could not be maintained despite good leadership. Again, some units perform well due to tradition even with poor leadership. It was further validated through key informant interviews and FGD.

Performance in Games and Sports as an Indicator

For a unit, performance in games and sports and other competition is an indicator of UCs state of morale, fitness, the effectiveness of the leadership, and UCs motivation. Units best scored in FI also performed well in various games and sports. It was further validated through key informant interviews and FGD.

Number of MT Accidents: An Indicator of Operational Proficiency

The driving skill of the drivers of a unit indicates the operational proficiency of the unit. There can be four main causes of MT accidents: human error, improper training, mechanical defects, and improper maintenance. A good CO can guide and control all these factors. As found in the survey, the high scorer units also have a minimum or no accident incident in the year.

Conclusion

All the expected leadership attributes of full range leadership are agreed upon by the respondent. A leader who embodies the attributes discussed is more likely to increase work satisfaction, create trust, and foster organizational commitment and loyalty. This kind of true leadership is necessary to mitigate the perceived challenges of the 21st century. 315 Full Range Leadership for Enhanced Operational Proficiency of the Units of Bangladesh Army

Expected leadership attributes of full range leadership can go a long way to mitigate perceived challenges. Leaders who were found more transformational in their leadership score, commanded unit amid numerous challenges, and finally have marked their contribution for unit performance. The leaders understudy initially identified the challenges and weaknesses of the unit, then set their vision for the unit command, transcended their UCs through motivation, individual consideration, influence, stimulation, rewards, interactive, and empowered them for higher responsibilities. Finally, the study found full range leadership attributes of the leaders contributed much to better operational proficiency in the unit and mitigating the challenges. The leadership training for the development of full range leadership is a scope of another research. However, it should be practical oriented. The training should be approached in two mutually supportive domains; institutional and self-development domain that enable education, training, and experience. The syllabus should progressively develop. Practical oriented training at institutes and formation should be planned avoiding prototype study periods, great captain’s presentation, etc. The self- development domain is much more effective for learning and developing leadership. Therefore, this domain should get priority over other domains.

References

1. Antonakis, J., Avolio, B.J. and Sivasubramaniam, N., (2003), Context and leadership: An examination of the nine-factor full-range leadership theory using the Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire. The leadership quarterly, 14(3), pp. 261-295. 2. Antonakis, J. and House, R.J., (2002), The full-range leadership theory: The way forward (Vol. 2). Amsterdam: JAI-Elsevier Science. 3. Avolio, B.J. and Bass, B.M., (2002), Developing potential across a full range of leadership: Cases on transactional and transformational leadership. Retrieved on March 13, p. 2005.

316 4. Avolio, B.J. and Bass, B.M., (2004), Multifactor leadership questionnaire (MLQ). Mind Garden, 29. 5. Bass, B.M., Avolio, B.J., Jung, D.I. and Berson, Y., (2003), Predicting unit performance by assessing transformational and transactional leadership. Journal of Applied Psychology, 88(2), p. 207. 6. Bass, B.M. and Stogdill, R.M., (1990), Bass & Stogdill’s handbook of leadership: Theory, research, and managerial applications. Simon and Schuster. 7. Bernard, M. Bass, and Ronald E. Riggio. (2006), Transformational Leadership. 2nd ed. Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum Associates. 8. Buil, I., Martínez, E. and Matute, J., (2019), Transformational leadership and employee performance: The role of identification, engagement and proactive personality. International Journal of Hospitality Management, 77, pp. 64-75. 9. Burns, J. M, (1978), Leadership, N.Y, Harper and Row. 10. Chaudhry, A.Q. and Javed, H., (2012), Impact of transactional and laissez faire leadership style on motivation. International Journal of Business and Social Science, 3(7).

11. Dvir, T., Eden, D., Avolio, B.J. and Shamir, B., (2002), Impact of transformational leadership on follower development and performance: A field experiment. Academy of Management Journal, 45(4), pp. 735- 744.

12. Field Manual 22-100, Army Leadership: Be, Know, Do (1999), United States Army, Washington, DC.

13. GSTP (Draft), Command, Leadership and Management: An Integrated Approach (July 2012), Bangladesh Army.

14. Homrig, M.A., (2001), Transformational leadership. Retrieved December 5, p. 208.

317 Full Range Leadership for Enhanced Operational Proficiency of the Units of Bangladesh Army

15. Judge, T.A. and Piccolo, R.F., (2004), Transformational and transactional leadership: a meta-analytic test of their relative validity. Journal of Applied Psychology, 89(5), p. 755.

16. Kirkbride, P., (2006), Developing transformational leaders: the full range leadership model in action. Industrial and commercial training, 38(1), pp. 23-32.

17. Nawaz, Z.A.K.D.A. and Khan_ PhD, I., (2016), Leadership theories and styles: A literature review. Leadership, 16, pp. 1-7.

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19. Salter, D.J., (1989), Leadership styles in United States Marine Corps transport helicopter squadrons. Naval Postgraduate School Monterey CA.

20. Sosik, J., Jung, D. (2018), Full Range Leadership Development. New York: Routledge.

21. Special Bangladesh Army Order (SBAO) 02/2011 (20 March 2011), Fitness Inspection for Field Formation Headquarters and Units.

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24. Yammarino, F.J. and Bass, B.M., (1990), Transformational leadership and multiple levels of analysis. Human relations, 43(10), pp. 975-995.

318 Author

Colonel M A Saadi, afwc, psc was commissioned in the Corp of Infantry on 07 June 1996. He served in many Infantry Units and commanded one Infantry Battalion. Besides, he also served as Brigade Major of an Infantry Brigade. His instructional capacity includes serving as Instructor of Tactics Wing in the School of Infantry and Tactics. He was also a proud member of the prestigious President Guard Regiment. He contributed to peacekeeping as a contingent member in United Nations Operation in Côte d’Ivoire (UNOCI) and Military Observer in Liberia (UNMIL).

He is a graduate of Defence Services Command and Staff College, Mirpur and obtained his Master of Science in Defence Studies from Bangladesh University of Professionals. He is also a graduate of Armed Forces War Course from National Defence College and currently perusing Master of Philosophy in Security and Development under Bangladesh University of Professionals. He is now working as Director, Research & Academic Wing, National Defence College, Bangladesh.

E-mail: [email protected]

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