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October-December) AIR POWER Journal of Air Power and Space Studies Vol. 11 No. 4, Winter 2016 (October-December) CENTRE FOR AIR POWER STUDIES VISION To be an independent centre of excellence on national security contributing informed and considered research and analyses on relevant issues. MISSION To encourage independent and informed research and analyses on issues of relevance to national security and to create a pool of domain experts to provide considered inputs to decision-makers. Also, to foster informed public debate and opinion on relevant issues and to engage with other think-tanks and stakeholders within India and abroad to provide an Indian perspective. AIR POWER CENTRE FOR AIR POWER STUDIES New Delhi AIR POWER is published quarterly by the Forum for National Security Studies for Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi. Board of Trustees Shri M.K. Rasgotra, former Foreign Secretary Chairman Dr Sanjaya Baru, Honorary Senior Fellow, Centre for Policy Research, Members Former Editor in Chief, Business Standard, former Media Adviser to PM Air Marshal Bharat Kumar PVSM AVSM (Retd) Air Marshal Vinod Patney SYSM PVSM AVSM VrC (Retd), former Vice Chief of the Air Staff H.E. N.N. Vohra, Governor J&K, former Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister, former Defence Secretary, former Home Secretary. (on leave) Air Marshal BS Dhanoa AVSM YSM VM ADC (Ex-Officio) Secretary Defence (Finance), Ministry of Defence (Ex-officio) Captain Ajay Singh, Vice President, Jet Lite Airways, Member and Managing Trustee former Deputy Director Air Defence, Air HQ AIR POWER Journal welcomes research articles on defence, military affairs and strategy (especially air power and space issues) of contemporary and historical interest. Articles in the Journal reflect the views and conclusions of the authors and not necessarily the opinions or policy of the Centre or any other institution. Editor-in-Chief Air Marshal Vinod Patney, SYSM PVSM AVSM VrC, (Retd) Editor Dr Manpreet Sethi Distributor KW Publishers Pvt. Ltd. All correspondence may be addressed to Editor-in-Chief AIR POWER Arjan Path, Subroto Park, New Delhi 110 010 Telephone: (91.11) 25699131-32 Fax: (91.11) 25682533 e-mail: [email protected] [email protected] website: www.capsindia.org © Centre for Air Power Studies All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or by any information storage and retrieval system without permission from the Director General, Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi ISBN: 81-87966-30-0 AIR POWER Journal is published four times a year and is distributed by KW Publishers Pvt. Ltd. 4676/21, First Floor, Ansari Road, Daryaganj, New Delhi 110 002 Telefax: 23263498 e-mail: [email protected] Printed and Published by Air Marshal Vinod Patney (Retd) on behalf of the Forum for National Security Studies (the Trust running the Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi) and Printed by Glorious Printers, 1597-98, Pataudi House, Daryaganj, New Delhi 110002 and Published at P-284, Arjan Path, Subroto Park, New Delhi 110 010. RNI REGN No. DELENG/2006/18450 CONTENTS Editor’s Note v 1. URI ATTACK, INDIA’S RESPONSE: WHAT NEXT? 1 Shalini Chawla 2. THE SOUTH CHINA SEA: TROUBLED AND TuRBULENT WATERS 27 Pradeep Chauhan 3. DEVELOPMENT OF AEROSPACE INDUSTRY IN CHINA AND BRAZIL 55 Vivek Kapur 4. EVOLUTION OF IAF HELICOPTERS - II CONSOLIDATION POST-1971 WAR 87 BS Nijjar 5. NuCLEAR SECURITY SummITS: JOURNEY SO FAR AND WHAT NEXT? 115 Sitakanta Mishra 6. CHANGING CONTOURS OF US-IRAN NuCLEAR RELATIONS 135 Hina Pandey iii AIR POWER Journal Vol. 11 No. 4, WINTER 2016 (October-December) conTENTS 7. ROLE OF THE MEDIA IN CULTIVATING PERCEPTIONS AND IMPACTING POWER EQUATIONS: CASE STUDY OF US PSYOPS 159 Kriti Singh AIR POWER Journal Vol. 11 No. 4, WINTER 2016 (October-December) iv EDITOr’s NOTE The year that has just ended witnessed many notable events. Terrorism and the wars against terrorism have continued unabated, Brexit continues to excite interest, and towards the end of the year, Mr Trump’s victory in the US presidential election has spawned innumerable commentaries on what might happen. Most importantly, there are few areas in the world that are tension free. That has now become the norm. The New Year does not appear overly promising. The shape of problems facing the world may change but the tensions are unlikely to ease. Closer home, our attempt for Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) membership was stymied by China, and Indo-China relations saw little improvement although they did not deteriorate. As for Pakistan, its indulgence in state sponsored terrorism against India saw no let-up. A major terrorist attack against a Brigade Headquarters (HQ) at Uri was carried out on September 20, 2016. Nineteen Indian soldiers were killed. Soon thereafter, India cancelled its participation in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Summit to be held in Islamabad. A number of other members followed India’s lead and the summit was indefinitely postponed. Our response to the terrorist attack was a very successful ‘surgical strike’ on the night of September 28/29, against terrorist camps in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK). The attack led to the inevitable political overtones but, more importantly, in spite of continued denials by Pakistan, our attempts to show Pakistan as the epicentre of terror got some traction. In early December, at the ‘Heart of Asia’ conference at Amritsar, many telling references to Pakistani support to terrorism were made. In the lead article in this issue of the journal, v AIR POWER Journal Vol. 11 No. 4, WINTER 2016 (October-December) EDITOR’S noTE Shalini Chawla examines the subject in some detail and opines that the covert war will continue, and recommends how India should respond. The South China Sea represents troubled waters and the July 12, 2016, award of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in favour of the Philippines has not quelled the situation. The claims and counter claims are still being made. China continues with the creation and militarisation of islands in the area. Of growing interest is the militarisation of Scarborough Shoal that is only 150 miles from Subic Bay in the Philippines. Again, on December 15, 2016, China captured a US underwater drone some 100 miles from Subic Bay. This may be just an instance but it heralds growing tension in the area. There is also perceived reticence on the part of the recently elected president of Philippines to oppose China. The area has great relevance for India and its maritime trade. In a scholarly work, Vice Adm Pradeep Chauhan includes many interesting historical aspects and the norms as established by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Seas (UNCLOS) in 1982. The article is the opinion of an expert and makes compelling reading. India is very keen that the ‘Make in India’ programme gathers steam and our aerospace industry matures into a capable and well recognised entity worldwide. The road is difficult and it will be instructive if we could learn from the attempts made by other countries and the success achieved by them. Towards this end, Gp Capt Vivek Kapur looks at the development of the aerospace industry in China and Brazil. When we got our independence in 1947, the aerospace industry capabilities of all three countries were essentially comparable. Since then, we have been left way behind. The author argues that we did not have a clear plan, with specific milestones. Possibly, we should not have shied away from foreign help and collaboration with the clear intention to gain knowledge and expertise. Also, we should have invested in building a strong and large team of well-educated and trained professionals by collaboration and creation of indigenous facilities. AIR POWER Journal Vol. 11 No. 4, WINTER 2016 (October-December) vi EDITOR’S noTE In part 2 of a series on the evolution of Indian Air Force (IAF) helicopters, Wg Cdr Nijjar discusses the consolidation of capability post 1971. To begin with, the need for more accurate supply drops in the northeast saw the acquisition of more helicopters. As we gained more experience and recognised the many varied uses of helicopters, the acquisition process gained momentum. Helicopters have been used in support of ONGC in the Bombay High area, in Antarctica, with UN missions, as part of the Indian Peace-Keeping Force (IPKF) in Sri Lanka and in support of our troops in Siachin. In all these areas, the crew have rendered great service that has been duly appreciated by all. Helicopters were also used extensively during the Kargil operations although their use in a combat role was discontinued very early. Since then, many accretions have been made and many more have been ordered. We will soon have a varied and extremely capable helicopter force. The dangers of terrorists acquiring fissile material and using it as a Radiological Dispersal Device (RDD) are serious. Arms control got a fillip with President Obama’s speech in Prague in 2009 where he also highlighted the need to “secure all vulnerable nuclear material”. Since then, four Nuclear Security Summits have been held, with the last in 2016. Sitakanta Mishra explores what transpired at the summits and suggests a way forward. It is in everyone’s interest to maintain the security of nuclear material but the issue is still work in progress. Hina Pandey assesses how the US-Iran relations, particularly in the nuclear field, will play out in the coming years. The nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 was signed on July 14, 2015. It was assessed that the deal pushed back Iranian plans, if any, to produce a nuclear weapon, by at least ten years.
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