Climate Change in the La Plata Basin

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CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE LA PLATA BASIN Editors Vicente Barros Robin Clarke Pedro Silva Dias CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE LA PLATA BASIN Editors Vicente Barros Robin Clarke Pedro Silva Días Project SGP II 057: ¨ Trends in the hydrological cycle of the Plata basin: Raising awareness and new tools for water management ¨ of the INTER AMERICAN INSTITUTE ON GLOBAL CHANGE (IAI) INDEX FOREWORD . 7 CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION . 8 1.1. Dropping the hypothesis of stationary climate . 8 1.2. Climatic and hydrological trends in the La Plata basin . 9 1.3. Climate forcings . 11 1.4. Global climate models and climate scenarios . 12 1.5. Extreme value assessment . 12 1.6. Interdecadal variability . 13 References . 14 CHAPTER II LA PLATA BASIN CLIMATOLOGY . 16 2.1. Introduction . 17 2.2. General precipitation regime . 20 2.2.1. Satellite estimates . 20 2.2.2. Annual and seasonal averages . 21 2.2.3. Mean annual cycle . 22 2.3. Regions . 23 2.3.1. Region of the monsoon (Upper Paraguay and High Upper Paraná basins) . 23 a. Paraguay River upper basin: The Pantanal region. 23 b. Upper and septentrional basins of the Upper Paraná. 24 2.3.2 Great Chaco Region . 24 2.3.3. Region centred at the east of Paraguay . 26 2.3.4. Region of the meridional Planalto and the Rio Grande ridges . 27 2.3.5. Region of the Argentine Litoral and bordering areas . 27 2.3.6. Eastern Uruguay and South of Rio Grande do Sul . 28 2.3.7. West and South borders . 30 References . 32 CHAPTER III INTERANNUAL LOW FREQUENCY VARIABILITY: BACKGROUND . 35 3.1. Introduction . 36 3.2. Variability over the La Plata basin . 39 References . 40 CHAPTER IV PHYSIOGRAPHY AND HYDROLOGY . 44 4.1. Location of the La Plata basin . 45 4.2. Importance of the basin . 46 4.3. Ecosystems in the basin . 46 4.4. Characteristics of the sub-basins . 47 4.4.1. The Paraná River sub-basin . 48 4.4.2. The Paraguay River sub-basin . 51 4.4.3. The Uruguay River sub-basin . 53 4.5. Slopes in the basin . 54 4.6. Environmental problems . 55 References . 59 CHAPTER V REGIONAL PRECIPITATION TRENDS . 61 5.1. Introduction . 62 5.2. Data sets . 62 5.3. Trends . 62 5.3.1. Total Precipitation . 63 a. Annual trends . 63 b. Seasonal trends . 65 c. Trends associated with ENSO . 66 5.3.2. Frequency of intense precipitation . 68 5.4. Rainfall-streamflow relationships . 69 5.5. Summary . 71 References and web addresses . 72 CHAPTER VI HYDROLOGICAL TRENDS . 74 6.1. General considerations . 75 6.2. River dtreamflows . 75 6.3. Extreme Hydrological Events (EHE) . 81 6.4. Relationship between precipitations and EHE . 85 6.5. Relationship between El Niño and EHE . 85 References . 86 CHAPTER VII REAL EVAPORATION TRENDS . 87 7.1. Introduction . 88 7.2. Data . 88 7.3. Methodology . 88 7.4. Results . 91 7.4.1. West of Argentina and Paraguay . ... 91 7.4.2 Paraguay River and Litoral of Argentina . 91 7.4.3 East of Paraguay . 96 7.5. Discussion and final comments . .102 References . .102 CHAPTER VIII THE MAIN SERVICES AND PROBLEMS OF WATER RESOURCE . .104 8.1. Introduction . .105 8.2 Main problems . .106 8.2.1. Floods . .106 8.2.2. Environment and Ecosystem vulnerabilities . .108 8.3. Main services of water resources . .109 8.3.1. Water supply and urban drainage . .109 8.3.2. Agriculture . .110 8.3.3. Energy . .112 a. Hydroelectric dependence . ..

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