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World Bank Document Document of The World Bank Public Disclosure Authorized Report No.13491-MAI Public Disclosure Authorized STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT THE REPUBLIC OF MALAWI RAILWAYS RESTRUCTURING PROJECT Public Disclosure Authorized MARCH 3, 1995 Public Disclosure Authorized Energy and Infrastructure Operations Division Southern Africa Department CURRENCY EQUIVALENT (as of November, 1994) Currency Unit = Malawi Kwacha (MK) and Tambala US$1.0 = MK 16.0 MK 1.0 = 100 Tambala FISCAL YEAR April 1 to March 31 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES 1 foot (ft) = 0.305 meters (m) i mile (mi) = 1.609 kilometers (km) 1 square mile (mi2) = 2.590 square kilometers (kin2) 1 ton (t) = 0.907 metric tons (m ton) GLOSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS BOD = Board of Directors CIR = Country Implementation Review EMP = Environment Mitigation Plan GDP = Gross Domestic Product CFM (N) = Caminhos de Ferro de Mocambique (North) CFM = Empresa Nacional de Portos e Caminhos de Ferro de Mocambique EE GOM = Government of Malawi IDA = International Development Association IMF = International Monetary Fund KfW = Kreditanstalt fur Wiederaufbau LS = Lake Services Department MLS = Malawi Lake Services Limited MK = Malawi Kwacha MOTCA = Ministry of Transport and Civil Aviation MR = Malawi Railways MR (M) = Malawi Railways (1994) Limited OA = Operations Agreement ODA = Overseas Development Administration PA = Performance Agreement RRP = Railways Restructuring Project USAID = United States Agency for International Development ZR = Zambia Railways REPUBLIC OF MALAWI RAILWAYS RESTRUCTURING PROJECT STAFF APPRAISAL REPORT Table of Contents Page Nos. CREDIT AND PROJECT SUMMARY ..................................... i CHAPTER 1. SECTOR BACKGROUND .1 A. Country Setting .......................................... I B. The Transport Sector ....................................... 2 C. Transport Policy ......................................... 8 D. Previous Bank Involvement ................................... 9 E. Lessons of Past Experience ................................... 9 CHAPTER 2. THE PROJECT ........................................ 10 A. Project Objectives .10 B. Main Project Outcomes .10 C. Rationale for IDA Involvement .10 D. Project Strategy .11 E. Project Description .12 F. Project Cost .22 G. Project Financing .23 CHAPTER 3. PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION ............................. 24 A. Implementation Arrangements .24 B. Role of Technical Assistance in Implementation .25 C. Status of Project Preparation .25 D. Procurement .26 E. Disbursement .28 F. Auditing and Accounting .29 G. Monitoring and Reporting .29 H. Supervision .29 CHAPTER 4. PROJECT BENEFITS AND RISKS ............................ 30 A. Scenarios .30 B. Traffic Projections .30 C. Financial Benefits .31 D. Economic Benefits .32 E. Key Indicators of Success .34 F. Environmental Impact .35 G. Sustainability .35 H. Project Risks .36 ... / cont'd CHAPTER 5. AGREEMENTS REACHED AND RECOMMENDATION ... .......... 37 A. Conditions of Effectiveness .37 B. Conditions of Disbursement .37 C. Assurances Provided at Negotiations .37 D. Recommendation .39 ANNEXES Annex 1 1.1 Trend of Performance Indicators in Malawi Railways 1.2 Letter of Transport Sector Policy 1.3 Completed and Active World Bank/IDA-Financed Transport Projects 1.4 Active World Bank/lDA-Financed Projects Annex 2 2.1 Project Cost Summary 2.2 Project Cost by Years 2.3 Project Financing Plan Annex 3 3. 1 Project Implementation Plan 3.2 Project Mission Plan Annex 4 4.1 Traffic Projections 4.2 Profit/Loss and Profitability Projections 4.3 Economic Benefits and ERR 4.4 Key Indicators of Success 4.5 Environmental Mitigation Plan Annex 5 5.1 Documents in Project Working Files Maps: IBRD Nos. 26395 and 26396 This report is based on the findings of a Bank appraisal mission which visited Malawi in April 1994, comprising Messrs. Yash Pal Kedia (Senior Railway Engineer and Mission Leader), Sture Karlsson (Port Engineer), R. Gopalkrishnan (Senior Procurement Specialist), Carlos de Castro (Transport Specialist), Wim Spit (Transport Economist), Duane Lougee (Transport Specialist, USAID), Samuel Mintz (Transport Economist, USAID), Tony Davis (Financial Analyst, USAID), Bill Brands (Project Officer, USAID) and John Craik (Railway Specialist, ODA). Ms. Josiane Luchmun provided administrative support. Mr. Ian Heggie, Mr. Lou Thompson, and Mr. Yusupha Crookes were the peer reviewers. Mr. Jeffrey S. Racki and Ms. Katherine Marshall are the managing Division Chief (Acting) and Department Director, respectively. - j - REPUBLICOF MALAWI RAILWAYSRESTRUCTURING PROJECT CREDITAND PROJECTSUMMARY Borrower: Republic of Malawi Implementing Agencies: Malawi Railways (1994) Limited and Malawi Lake Services Limited Beneficiaries: Ministry of Transport and Civil Aviation Malawi Railways Limited Malawi Railways (1994) Limited Malawi Lake Services Limited Poverty: Not Applicable Amount: SDR 11.2 million (US$16.16 million equivalent) Terms: Standard IDA terms with 40-year maturity Onlending Terms: To Malawi Railways (1994) Limited and Malawi Lake Services Limited at 7.1 % interest rate and 13 years repayment period including five years of grace Financing Plan: (US$ million) Local Foreign Total IDA 0.75 15.41 16.16 USAID 8.92 3.06 11.98 Government 0.66 0.20 0.86 Total 10.33 18.67 29.00 EconomicRate of Return: 88% for Privatization scenario and 67% for Restructuring scenario Staff Appraisal Report: Report No. 13491-MAI Maps: IBRD Nos. 26395 and 26396 REPUBLIC OF MALAWI RAILWAYS RESTRUCTURING PROJECT CHAPTER 1. SECTOR BACKGROUND A. Country Setting 1.1 Malawi, with a per capita income of around US$210, is one of the poorest countries in the world. The economy is fragile, as it depends on a limited range of exports and small domestic markets; the population growth rate is high; and social indicators are low. Agriculture is the mainstay of the economy, accounting for more than 30% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), 90% of exports, and 85% of employment. Foreign trade is important, as the value of exports and imports is roughly 50% of GDP overall. These conditions render Malawi's economy vulnerable to internal and external shocks, and, in particular, to fluctuations in terms of trade. 1.2 Indeed, after one and a half decades of economic growth, Malawi's economic performance faltered between 1981 and 1987 due in part to a number of exogenous factors which included declines in terms of trade, a prolonged drought, and an influx of about one million Mozambican refugees. The insurgent activity in Mozambique also led to closure of the shortest and least expensive rail routes to the ports of Nacala and Beira. The alternative route to the port of Durban being three times longer, the average transport margin for imports (transport and insurance cost as a percentage of the total landed cost of imports) increased from about 25% in 1975 to about 45% in 1987. The resulting burden on the economy has been estimated to be between US$50 and US$80 million per annum, about 4 to 6% of GDP. 1.3 A broad-based recovery, however, began in 1988, aided by well implemented stabilization and structural adjustment programs that gradually liberalized foreign trade and domestic regulations. In addition, increased external capital inflows and higher export prices financed needed imports of intermediate and capital goods. and raised investment. In response, growth rates of GDP increased from 0.5% in 1987 to 4.8% in 1991. Average transport margins on imports also decreased to about 40% due to: (i) increased use of the all-road and the rail/road routes to the port of Dar Es Salaam resulting from the implementation of the Northern Transport Corridor (NTC) Project (Cr. 1879-MAI) (formally called Transport I Project) by the Government of Malawi (GOM); and (ii) more foreign road transport operators competing for Malawi's international traffic under the liberalized transport policy. 1.4 After 1991, Malawi's economic situation again deteriorated mainly due to two droughts in the last three years (which led to a sharp fall in aggregate output) and terms of trade losses cumulatively amounting to around 10% of GDP over two years. In recent months, the poor functioning of the foreign exchange market and a large fiscal deficit caused mainly by the costs of the political transition have also contributed to macroeconomic difficulties. However, the newly elected GOM has shown its commitment to stabilization and structural reforms through coming to an agreement on a medium term policy framework with the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. This framework calls for measures to increase revenue collections, and tighten controls on government borrowing and expenditure, and for a return to fiscal stability and lower inflation. In the sphere of structural reforms, the framework seeks to increase burley quota allocation to smallholders, improve the transparency of quota allocation, encourage private sector participation in domestic trade, remove fiscal subsidies to fertilizer, and publicize policies that have been liberalized and deregulated. A fully functional Nacala rail route would greatly help in promoting economic growth by bringing the transport margin on overseas imports down to about 30%, resulting in annual savings of US$25 to US$35 million in transport costs. -2 - B. The Transport Sector Geographic Setting and Transport System 1.5 International Traffic. Malawi, as a landlocked country, must depend on neighboring countries for all imports and exports to the sea. The rail routes to the ports of Nacala and Beira were the main routes used by Malawi until their closure in 1984.
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