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A Closer Look at ’s LGFVs:

May 21, 2020

Key Takeaways Primary Analyst Renyuan Zhang — Following a desktop analysis of 83 local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) in Chongqing City, we believe that the median indicative issuer credit quality of vehicles in the +86-10 6516 6028 renyuan.zhang city is slightly higher than the national median. @spgchinaratings.cn — Chongqing has relatively strong indicative support capability for LGFVs among all cities

in the country. However, when compared with the 12 selected peers, its indicative support Secondary Analysts capability for LGFVs is at average level, mainly due to its good economic development, Yingxue average debt level, and relatively weaker fiscal balance. Beijing +86 10 6516 6037 — We believe the overall indicative issuer credit quality of Chongqing LGFVs at city level or in Yingxue.Ren is relatively stronger, while the overall indicative issuer credit quality @spgchinaratings.cn of vehicles in regions such as Liangping , , Shizhu County, , Wulong County, and Xiushan County is relatively weaker. Huang Wang Beijing +86 10 6516 6029 Huang.Wang @spgchinaratings.cn

To get a full picture of the overall credit quality of LGFVs in Chongqing, we carried out a desktop Kexin Wang analysis of 83 LGFVs in the region, using public information. Our sample includes vehicles at the Beijing +86 10 6516 6033 city-level and below and subway companies, but excludes city-level transportation construction Kexin.Wang companies, investment holding companies and utility companies. The entities in the sample @spgchinaratings.cn represent close to 81% of LGFVs with bonds outstanding in Chongqing, covering 36 districts and counties. We believe they offer a comprehensive reflection of the overall indicative credit quality of LGFVs in Chongqing.

We believe local government support is generally the most important factor when considering the credit quality of LGFVs. In this report, we have compared Chongqing’s indicative capability to support and the distribution of indicative importance of LGFVs with its peers.

We have also shown the indicative issuer credit quality distribution of Chongqing LGFVs by geographic location.

S&P Global (China) Ratings www.spgchinaratings.cn May 21, 2020 A Closer Look at China’s LGFVs: Chongqing May 21, 2020

Chart 1 Comparing Bonds Outstanding Among Chongqing LGFVs and Nationwide 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 416.1 billion RMB

100 Million RMB Million 100 4,000 2,000 0 Beijing Chongqing

Note: Data as of December 31, 2019. Source: Wind, S&P Global (China) Ratings. Copyright ©2020 by S&P Ratings (China) Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.

About This Article

S&P Ratings (China) Co., Ltd. (S&P China) has conducted a desktop analysis of a selection of entities based in the relevant region. We have chosen these entities based on their asset sizes, representativeness of most regions and availability of public information. The analysis contained herein has been performed using S&P China Methodologies. S&P China Methodologies and analytical approaches are intended specifically for use in China only, and are distinct from those used by S&P Global Ratings. An S&P China opinion must not be equated with or represented as an opinion by S&P Global Ratings, or relied upon as an S&P Global Ratings opinion.

This desktop analysis has been conducted using publicly available information only, and is based on S&P China’s methodologies for corporates. The analysis involves a desktop application of our methodologies to public information to arrive at a potential view of credit quality across sectors. It is important to note that the opinions expressed in this report are based on public information and are not based on any interactive rating exercise with any particular entity. The opinions ex- pressed herein are not and should not be represented as a credit rating, and should not be taken as an indication of a final credit rating on any particular entity, but are initial insights of potential credit quality based on the analysis conducted. This desktop analysis does not involve any surveil- lance. The opinions expressed herein are not and should not be viewed as recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions, and do not address the suitability of any security.

We have conducted this desktop analysis on individual corporates and present the results contained herein at an aggregate group level. The different sections of this research show the statistics and performance of different groups of entities and the market more broadly against the metrics we generally consider most relevant under our methodologies.

Given the desktop nature of this analysis, and that we have not conducted an interactive review with any particular entity, we may have made certain assumptions in lieu of confirmed informa- tion and where relevant we may also have attempted to consider any possibility of parent, group, government or other forms of potential support, to inform our view of potential credit quality. S&P China is not responsible for any losses caused by reliance on the content of this desktop analysis.

S&P Global (China) Ratings www.spgchinaratings.cn 2 A Closer Look at China’s LGFVs: Chongqing May 21, 2020

On the National Level: Median Indicative Credit Quality of Chongqing LGFVs Slightly Better than National Median

Chongqing is the fourth provincial level in China and also the only provincial level municipality located in the midwest. It had 26 districts, 8 counties, and 4 autonomous counties within its jurisdiction, with a total area of about 1,400 square kilometers as of the end of 2019. It had a population of over 30 million permanent residents, and is considered the largest city in China by population.

Chongqing is the economic center of upper reaches of the River, an important modern manufacturing base of China, a transport pivot of , and an inland city with open economy. In 2019, it generated about 2.3 trillion RMB in GDP, slightly lower than median of all provincial governments in the country. GDP per capital was 75,000 RMB, higher than the median of all provincial governments. The major products of industrial companies in Chongqing include automobiles, laptops, printers, integrated circuits, and LCDs, etc. In 2019, the general public budget revenue of Chongqing was around 213.5 billion RMB, among which 154.1 billion RMB was contributed by tax revenue. Its fiscal strength is average level of all provincial governments.

We believe that the distribution of indicative issuer credit quality of 83 Chongqing LGFVs in our sample is broadly consistent with that of a nationwide sample of 1700 vehicles, while the median of the 83 vehicles’ indicative issuer credit quality is slightly higher than the national median. We believe Chongqing has relatively strong indicative capability to support the vehicles, while the indicative issuer credit quality of the vehicles across Chongqing is dispersedly distributed due to the large number of districts and counties in Chongqing with disparity in development.

Chart 2

Indicative Credit Quality: Comparing LGFVs in Chongqing and Nationwide

[BBB]*category [BB]*category

Chongqing [A]*category

[B]*category China [AA]* category and above

Note*: The indicative credit quality distributions expressed in this report are only S&P China’s indicative views of credit quality derived from a desktop analysis based on public information without interactive review with any particular entity or the full credit rating process such as a rating committee. The opinions expressed herein are not and should not be represented as a credit rating and should not be taken as an indication of a final credit rating on any particular entity. Curve represents the proportion of companies in the sample. Source: S&P Global (China) Ratings. Copyright ©2020 by S&P Ratings (China) Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.

S&P Global (China) Ratings www.spgchinaratings.cn 3 A Closer Look at China’s LGFVs: Chongqing May 21, 2020

Indicative Support Capability: At Average Level Compared to Peers

When analyzing Chongqing’s indicative support capability for its LGFVs, we have performed peer comparison with other provincial level (like Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin), five municipalities with independent planning status (like , , , , and ) which have relatively independent fiscal power and developed economy, and some provincial capitals also located in (like , Xi'an, , and ).

We view that Chongqing has average indicative support capability for LGFVs compared with the selected peers, primarily due to the combined effect of its good economic development, average debt level, and relatively weaker fiscal balance. However, when comparing among all cities in China, we view that Chongqing and the selected peers all have relatively strong indicative support capability.

In 2019, Chongqing’s GDP ranked 4th among the peers, only behind Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen. Its debt ratio is at an average level compared to peers, lower than that of Chengdu, Dalian, Xi’an, Guiyang, and Tianjin.

Chart 3

2019 GDP and Adjusted Debt Ratio among Chongqing and 50,000 comparable cities 45,000

40,000 Shanghai 35,000 Beijing

30,000 Shenzhen 25,000 Chongqing 20,000 Qingdao Chengdu 15,000 Tianjin Ningbo Median level 2019 GDP(100 RMB) GDP(100 million 2019 10,000 xi'an Xiamen Dalian 5,000 Kunming Guiyang 0 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% Adjusted Debt Ratio,2019

Note:Adjusted Debt Ratio=(gov. debt+adjusted LGFV debt)/fiscal revenue. Source: Wind, S&P Global (China) Ratings. Copyright ©2020 by S&P Ratings (China) Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.

Chongqing’s general public budget revenue is relatively large among its peers, while general public budget balance ratios is relatively lower due to large general public budget expenditure. In 2019, Chongqing’s general public budget revenue ranked 5th when compared to peers, behind Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, and Tianjin. Its general public budget expenditure was about 480 billion RMB, higher than that of Shenzhen, which had a larger general public budget revenue than Chongqing.

S&P Global (China) Ratings www.spgchinaratings.cn 4 A Closer Look at China’s LGFVs: Chongqing May 21, 2020

Chart 4

Differentiation of Cities' Budgets among Chongqing and 7,500 comparable cities Shanghai

6,250 Beijing

5,000

3,750 Shenzhen

Median level

(100 million RMB) 2,500 Tianjin Chongqing Chengdu Ningbo 1,250 Qingdao 2019 General General 2019 Budget Public Revenue Xi'an Dalian Xiamen Guiyang Kunming 0 -150% -130% -110% -90% -70% -50% -30% -10% 2019 General Public Budget Balance Ratio

Source: Government websites, S&P Global (China) Ratings. Copyright ©2020 by S&P Ratings (China) Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.

We view that the relatively large general public budget expenditure and lower general public budget balance ratio of Chongqing may be attributable to the large number of districts and counties within its jurisdiction, which are at different development stages. As of the end of 2019, Chongqing’s rate was 67%, which was belong average when compared to the peers. Some of its districts and counties are relatively under-developed, and certain counties have just been lifted out of poverty in 2020. We view that all of these may require the local governments to invest a large amount of capital in the residents’ livelihood and infrastructure construction.

Distribution of LGFVs’ Importance: The Proportion of LGFVs with ‘Critical’ Indicative Importance is Relatively Low.

In addition to each government’s indicative capability to support, differences in the indicative issuer credit quality of LGFVs also depend on an LGFV’s indicative importance to its relevant government. When analyzing support, we typically consider an LGFV’s importance by looking at factors such as: it’s administrative level; its policy role; whether its business is not-for-profit or difficult to replace; revenue and asset scale; strategic importance; overall strength of major customers, etc. We view that, even within the same region, different vehicles’ importance level can vary due to the factors above.

In our view, a fair number of LGFVs in Chongqing have ‘critical’ indicative importance. Most of them are core vehicles at city-level or in key districts, and have undertaken the major LGFV areas of business for the city or the districts. However, percentagewise, a relatively large proportion of Chongqing LGFVs are not ‘critical’ as according to our analysis on their indicative importance. Chongqing has the largest number of LGFVs compared with the selected peers. Since there are generally a number of vehicles with different functions and policy roles at city level or in the districts and counties, and that Chongqing’s districts and counties are generally at varied development stages, the vehicles’ indicative importance is widely distributed in our view.

S&P Global (China) Ratings www.spgchinaratings.cn 5 A Closer Look at China’s LGFVs: Chongqing May 21, 2020

Chart 5 LGFVs' Indicative Importance to Local Governments among Chongqing and comparable cities Number of LGFVs per City Xi'an 20 Chengdu 45 Guiyang 16 Kunming 8 Tianjin 30 Chongqing 83 Beijing 20 Shanghai 26 Dalian 9 Xiamen 12 Ningbo 17 Qingdao 16 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Critical High Moderate and below

Source: S&P Global (China) Ratings. Copyright ©2020 by S&P Ratings (China) Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.

Indicative Issuer Credit Quality

Based on the above analysis on indicative support capability and indicative importance, we have come up with the indicative issuer credit quality distribution of LGFVs in Chongqing. In order to better display the distribution, we have divided the samples below city level into six groups according to their geographic locations in Chongqing: northern districts in downtown, southern districts in downtown, eastern districts surrounding the downtown area, western districts surrounding the downtown area, northern counties, and southern counties.

In our view, the vehicles at city level and in Liangjiang have the strongest overall indicative issuer credit quality, with over half vehicles’ indicative issuer credit quality being better than the median of all selected vehicles in Chongqing.

However, from our analysis, not all vehicles at city level and in Liangjiang New Areas have indicative issuer credit quality that is higher than vehicles in other areas. We believe that the importance of LGFVs is not just a simple reflection of the administrative level.

We view that the LGFVs of southern and northern districts in downtown, as we classified during our analysis, have better overall indicative issuer credit quality than LGFVs of the eastern and western districts surrounding the downtown area as well as LGFVs of southern and northern counties. We believe that the overall indicative credit quality of vehicles of northern districts in downtown is slightly better than southern districts in downtown, mainly benefiting from the better overall indicative credit quality of the leading vehicles. From our analysis, the indicative credit quality of LGFVs of eastern districts surrounding the downtown area is slightly better than the western districts surrounding the downtown area.

In our view, one of the primary reasons for different indicative importance of the LGFVs is that the overall strength of the relevant districts and counties varies despite of their same administrative level, which has led to different indicative issuer credit quality distribution of the LGFVs.

S&P Global (China) Ratings www.spgchinaratings.cn 6 A Closer Look at China’s LGFVs: Chongqing May 21, 2020

Chart 6 Distribution of Indicative Issuer Credit Quality Across Chongqing LGFVs

Stronger City Median Weaker LGFVs in Chongqing Among them:LGFVs at City level LGFVs of southern districts in downtown LGFVs of northern districts in downtown LGFVs of western districts surrounding the downtown area LGFVs of eastern districts surrounding the downtown area LGFVs of northern counties LGFVs of southern counties

Note:LGFVs are divided by geography position。. The color represents the numbers of LGFVs with the same indicative issuer credit quality. The darker the color, the higher the number of entities. The dark dotted line represents the median of indicative credit quality of LGFVs in Chongqing City. City level:city level+Liangjiang New Area; Southern districts in downtown:Nan'an,Jiulongpo, 'nan, Dadukou,Chongqing economic development zone; Northern districts in downtown:Beibei, Yubei,Yuzhong, Shapingba, Jiangbei,Chongqing High-tech zone and Chongqing economic corridor; Western districts surrounding the downtown area:Tongnan, Hechuan, Tongliang, Dazu, Bishan, Rongchang, Yongchuan, Jiangjin, Shuangqiao economic development zone; Eastern districts surrounding the downtown area:Qijiang, Wansheng econmoic development zone,Nanchuan, Fuling, Changshou; Northern counties :Chengkou, , Wushan, Fengjie, Yunyang, Kaizhou, Wanzhou, Liangping, Dianjiang, Zhongxian, Fengdu; Southern counties:Shizhu, Wulong, Pengshui, Qianjiang, Xiushan, Youyang. Source: S&P Global (China) Ratings. Copyright ©2020 by S&P Ratings (China) Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.

Overall Strength of the Districts and Counties across Chongqing

We believe that local authorities at district and county level generally have a big impact to their LGFVs’ scale and scope of business, and the progress of receivables collection, etc. Therefore, we believe that vehicles of districts and counties which have stronger overall strength commonly have better business performance.

From our analysis above, one of the features of Chongqing is that its LGFVs belong to a large number of districts and counties, which have varied overall strength.

In 2019, Jiangbei, Yuzhong, Yubei, Jiulongpo, Fuling, and Jiangjin districts all generated over 100 billion RMB in GDP, among which Jiangjin, Fuling, and Jiulongpo had debt ratios that are way above the median of all of Chongqing’s districts and counties. In contrast, the economic strength of many counties is relatively weaker, with total GDP of each generally being only one eighth to one fifth of that of a key district. In addition, some counties have just been lifted out of poverty in recent years. Although the debt ratios of these counties were relatively low, we view that their overall strength is still relatively weaker.

S&P Global (China) Ratings www.spgchinaratings.cn 7 A Closer Look at China’s LGFVs: Chongqing May 21, 2020

Chart 7

2019 GDP and Adjusted Debt Ratio among different districts and counties in Chongqing

Shapingba 600%

Dazu 500% Jiangjin Qianjiang ChangshouHechuan 400% Qijiang Fuling Nan'an Nanchuan Tongnan 300% Dianjiang Ba'nan Wulong Beibei Yongchuan Jiulongpo Dadukou Yubei Fengdu Tongliang Wanzhou 200% Kaizhou

Adjusted debt ratio,2019 debt Adjusted ShizhuXiushan Fengjie Rongchang Yuzhong Youyang Bishan Jiangbei 100% Wushan Zhongxian Liangping Yunyang ChengkouWuxia 0% Pengshui 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2019 GDP(100 million RMB)

Note:Adjusted Debt Ratio=(gov. debt+adjusted LGFV debt)/fiscal revenue.Red dot reprensent the median level. Source: government websites, S&P Global (China) Ratings. Copyright ©2020 by S&P Ratings (China) Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.

In terms of fiscal strength, the fiscal revenues of areas like Yubei, Jiangbei, Fuling, Shapingba, Bishan, Wanzhou, Hechuan, and Jiulongpo had relatively higher fiscal revenue in 2019, among which Yubei and Jiangbei have seen a relatively lower proportion of government funds in their fiscal revenue compared to the rest. Most counties have relatively lower total fiscal revenue than districts, higher reliance on subsidies from higher level government, and weaker general public budget balance ratios. As stated above, Chongqing’s counties and districts are at varied development stage, which has some impact on the overall general public budget balance ratio of Chongqing. According to our study, only fewer than one third of the districts and counties had general public budget balance ratios that are higher than that of Chongqing.

Chart 8 Structure of Fiscal Revenue of districts and counties in

10 thousands RMB Chongqing

2,000,000 0% -100% -200% 1,500,000 -300% -400% 1,000,000 -500% -600% -700% 500,000 -800% -900% Pengshui 0 Rongchang Tongliang Xiushan -1000% Qianjiang Wulong Youyang Wushan Shizhu Wuxia Yubei Yuzhong Jiangbei Fuling Shapingba Hechuan Ba'nan Nan'an Bishan Dazu Beibei Kaizhou Liangping Tongnan Yunyang Zhongxian Nanchuan Fengdu Fengjie Dadukou Chengkou Jiulongpo Wanzhou Dianjiang

Government Fund Income Subsidy Income of General public budget

General Public Budget Revenue General Public Budget Balance Ratio(Right scale)

Note:Only include the areas which have public information. Dotted line represent the general public budget balance ratio of Chongqing city. Source:Government websites,S&P Global (China) Ratings. Copyright ©2020 by S&P Ratings (China) Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.

S&P Global (China) Ratings www.spgchinaratings.cn 8 A Closer Look at China’s LGFVs: Chongqing May 21, 2020

Related Research

— A Closer Look at China’s LGFVs: Jiangxi, May 11, 2020

— A Closer Look at China’s LGFVs: Guangxi, April 22, 2020

— A Closer Look at China’s LGFVs: Fujian, April 22, 2020

— A Closer Look at China’s LGFVs: Henan, April 20, 2020

— A Closer Look at China’s LGFVs: Shaanxi, April 20, 2020

— A Closer Look at China’s LGFVs: Guangdong, April 13, 2020

— A Closer Look at China’s LGFVs: Anhui, April 13, 2020

— A Closer Look at China’s LGFVs: Hunan, April 2, 2020

— A Closer Look at China’s LGFVs: Zhejiang, April 2, 2020

— Looking Beyond the Short Term – Corporate Outlook: 2020, March 4, 2020

— A Group Portrait of China’s LGFVs, November 4, 2019

— Looking For The Most Resilient Players, November 4, 2019

Appendix

S&P Global (China) Ratings’ Corporate Methodology Framework

Other rating influences

Diversification Industry Risk

Business Capital structure Risk Profile Competitive position Financial policy

Stand- Issuer Anchor Liquidity alone Credit Credit Profile Rating Group or Management/governance Cash Flow Financial Government /Leverage Risk Profile Influence Comparable rating analysis

This report does not constitute a rating action.

S&P Global (China) Ratings www.spgchinaratings.cn 9 A Closer Look at China’s LGFVs: Chongqing May 21, 2020

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