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A Closer Look at China's Lgfvs: Chongqing

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A Closer Look at China's Lgfvs: Chongqing A Closer Look at China’s LGFVs: Chongqing May 21, 2020 Key Takeaways Primary Analyst Renyuan Zhang — Following a desktop analysis of 83 local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) in Beijing Chongqing City, we believe that the median indicative issuer credit quality of vehicles in the +86-10 6516 6028 renyuan.zhang city is slightly higher than the national median. @spgchinaratings.cn — Chongqing has relatively strong indicative support capability for LGFVs among all cities in the country. However, when compared with the 12 selected peers, its indicative support Secondary Analysts capability for LGFVs is at average level, mainly due to its good economic development, Yingxue Ren average debt level, and relatively weaker fiscal balance. Beijing +86 10 6516 6037 — We believe the overall indicative issuer credit quality of Chongqing LGFVs at city level or in Yingxue.Ren Liangjiang New Area is relatively stronger, while the overall indicative issuer credit quality @spgchinaratings.cn of vehicles in regions such as Liangping District, Qianjiang District, Shizhu County, Yunyang County, Wulong County, and Xiushan County is relatively weaker. Huang Wang Beijing +86 10 6516 6029 Huang.Wang @spgchinaratings.cn To get a full picture of the overall credit quality of LGFVs in Chongqing, we carried out a desktop Kexin Wang analysis of 83 LGFVs in the region, using public information. Our sample includes vehicles at the Beijing +86 10 6516 6033 city-level and below and subway companies, but excludes city-level transportation construction Kexin.Wang companies, investment holding companies and utility companies. The entities in the sample @spgchinaratings.cn represent close to 81% of LGFVs with bonds outstanding in Chongqing, covering 36 districts and counties. We believe they offer a comprehensive reflection of the overall indicative credit quality of LGFVs in Chongqing. We believe local government support is generally the most important factor when considering the credit quality of LGFVs. In this report, we have compared Chongqing’s indicative capability to support and the distribution of indicative importance of LGFVs with its peers. We have also shown the indicative issuer credit quality distribution of Chongqing LGFVs by geographic location. S&P Global (China) Ratings www.spgchinaratings.cn May 21, 2020 A Closer Look at China’s LGFVs: Chongqing May 21, 2020 Chart 1 Comparing Bonds Outstanding Among Chongqing LGFVs and Nationwide 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 416.1 billion RMB 100 Million RMB Million 100 4,000 2,000 0 Jiangsu Zhejiang Hunan Sichuan Tianjin Beijing Shandong Chongqing Hubei Anhui Jiangxi Guangdong Henan Fujian Yunnan Guizhou Shaanxi Guangxi Shanghai Jilin Xinjiang Shanxi Hebei Gansu Liaoning Mongolia Inner Heilongjiang Ningxia Qinghai Tibet Hainan Note: Data as of December 31, 2019. Source: Wind, S&P Global (China) Ratings. Copyright ©2020 by S&P Ratings (China) Co., Ltd. All rights reserved. About This Article S&P Ratings (China) Co., Ltd. (S&P China) has conducted a desktop analysis of a selection of entities based in the relevant region. We have chosen these entities based on their asset sizes, representativeness of most regions and availability of public information. The analysis contained herein has been performed using S&P China Methodologies. S&P China Methodologies and analytical approaches are intended specifically for use in China only, and are distinct from those used by S&P Global Ratings. An S&P China opinion must not be equated with or represented as an opinion by S&P Global Ratings, or relied upon as an S&P Global Ratings opinion. This desktop analysis has been conducted using publicly available information only, and is based on S&P China’s methodologies for corporates. The analysis involves a desktop application of our methodologies to public information to arrive at a potential view of credit quality across sectors. It is important to note that the opinions expressed in this report are based on public information and are not based on any interactive rating exercise with any particular entity. The opinions ex- pressed herein are not and should not be represented as a credit rating, and should not be taken as an indication of a final credit rating on any particular entity, but are initial insights of potential credit quality based on the analysis conducted. This desktop analysis does not involve any surveil- lance. The opinions expressed herein are not and should not be viewed as recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions, and do not address the suitability of any security. We have conducted this desktop analysis on individual corporates and present the results contained herein at an aggregate group level. The different sections of this research show the statistics and performance of different groups of entities and the market more broadly against the metrics we generally consider most relevant under our methodologies. Given the desktop nature of this analysis, and that we have not conducted an interactive review with any particular entity, we may have made certain assumptions in lieu of confirmed informa- tion and where relevant we may also have attempted to consider any possibility of parent, group, government or other forms of potential support, to inform our view of potential credit quality. S&P China is not responsible for any losses caused by reliance on the content of this desktop analysis. S&P Global (China) Ratings www.spgchinaratings.cn 2 A Closer Look at China’s LGFVs: Chongqing May 21, 2020 On the National Level: Median Indicative Credit Quality of Chongqing LGFVs Slightly Better than National Median Chongqing is the fourth provincial level municipality in China and also the only provincial level municipality located in the midwest. It had 26 districts, 8 counties, and 4 autonomous counties within its jurisdiction, with a total area of about 1,400 square kilometers as of the end of 2019. It had a population of over 30 million permanent residents, and is considered the largest city in China by population. Chongqing is the economic center of upper reaches of the Yangtze River, an important modern manufacturing base of China, a transport pivot of southwest China, and an inland city with open economy. In 2019, it generated about 2.3 trillion RMB in GDP, slightly lower than median of all provincial governments in the country. GDP per capital was 75,000 RMB, higher than the median of all provincial governments. The major products of industrial companies in Chongqing include automobiles, laptops, printers, integrated circuits, and LCDs, etc. In 2019, the general public budget revenue of Chongqing was around 213.5 billion RMB, among which 154.1 billion RMB was contributed by tax revenue. Its fiscal strength is average level of all provincial governments. We believe that the distribution of indicative issuer credit quality of 83 Chongqing LGFVs in our sample is broadly consistent with that of a nationwide sample of 1700 vehicles, while the median of the 83 vehicles’ indicative issuer credit quality is slightly higher than the national median. We believe Chongqing has relatively strong indicative capability to support the vehicles, while the indicative issuer credit quality of the vehicles across Chongqing is dispersedly distributed due to the large number of districts and counties in Chongqing with disparity in development. Chart 2 Indicative Credit Quality: Comparing LGFVs in Chongqing and Nationwide [BBB]*category [BB]*category Chongqing [A]*category [B]*category China [AA]* category and above Note*: The indicative credit quality distributions expressed in this report are only S&P China’s indicative views of credit quality derived from a desktop analysis based on public information without interactive review with any particular entity or the full credit rating process such as a rating committee. The opinions expressed herein are not and should not be represented as a credit rating and should not be taken as an indication of a final credit rating on any particular entity. Curve represents the proportion of companies in the sample. Source: S&P Global (China) Ratings. Copyright ©2020 by S&P Ratings (China) Co., Ltd. All rights reserved. S&P Global (China) Ratings www.spgchinaratings.cn 3 A Closer Look at China’s LGFVs: Chongqing May 21, 2020 Indicative Support Capability: At Average Level Compared to Peers When analyzing Chongqing’s indicative support capability for its LGFVs, we have performed peer comparison with other provincial level municipalities (like Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin), five municipalities with independent planning status (like Dalian, Qingdao, Ningbo, Xiamen, and Shenzhen) which have relatively independent fiscal power and developed economy, and some provincial capitals also located in western China (like Chengdu, Xi'an, Guiyang, and Kunming). We view that Chongqing has average indicative support capability for LGFVs compared with the selected peers, primarily due to the combined effect of its good economic development, average debt level, and relatively weaker fiscal balance. However, when comparing among all cities in China, we view that Chongqing and the selected peers all have relatively strong indicative support capability. In 2019, Chongqing’s GDP ranked 4th among the peers, only behind Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen. Its debt ratio is at an average level compared to peers, lower than that of Chengdu, Dalian, Xi’an, Guiyang, and Tianjin. Chart 3 2019 GDP and Adjusted Debt Ratio among Chongqing and 50,000 comparable cities 45,000 40,000 Shanghai 35,000 Beijing 30,000 Shenzhen 25,000 Chongqing 20,000 Qingdao Chengdu 15,000 Tianjin Ningbo Median level 2019 GDP(100 RMB) GDP(100 million 2019 10,000 xi'an Xiamen Dalian 5,000 Kunming Guiyang 0 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% Adjusted Debt Ratio,2019 Note：Adjusted Debt Ratio=(gov. debt+adjusted LGFV debt)/fiscal revenue. Source: Wind, S&P Global (China) Ratings. Copyright ©2020 by S&P Ratings (China) Co., Ltd.
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