SYNTHESIS SUMMARY 6 Terrestrial ecosystems

Increasing temperatures, more frequent and severe extreme weather events and declining rainfall have already resulted in observable shifts in the behaviour of terrestrial plants and animals, and more widespread impacts are evident on all terrestrial ecosystems.

About this summary

About this series This summary addresses adaptation actions to support Between 2008 and 2013, terrestrial ecosystem conservation and function in a changing the Australian Government climate. The opening pages provide the context including funded a large nationwide the nature and impacts of climate change (‘Why we need to Adaptation Research Grant Program (the ARG Program) adapt’) followed by a synthesis of research findings around the in climate change adaptation. impacts and adaptation response in terrestrial ecosystems (‘The The Program was managed by research base …’). It concludes with a summary of how this new the National Climate Change research knowledge might help address key adaptation policy Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF). It resulted in over challenges. This final section is informed by a workshop held 100 research reports that with practitioners (‘Evidence-based policy implications’). delivered new knowledge on every aspect of adaptation. The aim of the Program was This brief was developed by members and staff of NCCARF’s to help build a nation more National Adaptation Network for Natural Ecosystems, with input resilient to the effects of on the policy challenges developed in workshops held in Hobart climate change and better (Tasmania) and Canberra (ACT) in March 2016. The workshops placed to take advantage of the opportunities. were attended by practitioners, policymakers and managers from within local, state and federal government organisations, This series of Synthesis Summaries is based on community service organisations, not-for-profit organisations research findings from the and universities. ARG Program, augmented by relevant new literature and evidence from practitioners. The key research reports used to develop this summary are The series seeks to deliver highlighted in Section 4. To see all reports from the ARG some of the policy-relevant Program, please visit www.nccarf.edu.au/adaptation-library. research evidence to support decision-making for climate change adaptation in Australia in a short summary. It takes This Brief was prepared by Nadiah Roslan and an approach identified through members of the Natural Ecosystems Adaptation consultation with relevant Network, and Sarah Boulter, Jean Palutikof and stakeholders about the needs of the intended audience of Ana Perez from NCCARF. Please cite as: NCCARF policymakers, decision-makers (2016) Terrestrial ecosystems. Synthesis Summary and managers in the public 6, National Climate Change Adaptation Research and private sectors. Facility, Gold Coast.

2

Key findings

Five principal adaptation challenges emerge from the research evidence:

1. Identify key adaptation pathways and principles for managing ecosystems: Existing approaches to managing terrestrial ecosystems come from a history of significant investment in a particular conservation philosophy: managing in place, using pre-European settlement as a conservation benchmark and focusing on rare and threatened species (e.g. the Environment Protection Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999, reserve systems). Climate change has altered the current view of how to prioritise values of conservation, and it is clear that more nimble and flexible approaches will be needed (see Section 2.3).

2. Work across jurisdictions and tenure and identify roles and responsibilities: Climate change will mean many species and ecosystems can no longer survive in their current locations. Planning is likely to be most effective when undertaken at a landscape scale and where greater flexibility in management is encouraged. Working at the landscape scale will require greater cooperation and collaboration across jurisdictions and tenures.

3. Define new social, economic and ideological values to drive land management and policy arrangements: Climate change will mean prioritising new environmental and social values, and this will change what we are managing for, for example, individual species, ecosystem function or ecosystem resilience.

4. Use new tools to make decisions: New decision support tools and decision frameworks are becoming available to help incorporate the new principles and values of land management that are emerging under climate change into decision-making. The use of quantitative techniques to demonstrate effectiveness, such as cost–benefit analysis, and the search for co-benefits, for example through carbon sequestration, are likely to become important in decision-making.

5. Collaborate to manage new challenges, conflicting goals and inherited problems: Land managers may be faced not only with new challenges, but interaction and escalation of existing problems and conflicting management goals. For example, will movement corridors create new fire risks? These new challenges highlight the need for collaborative approaches between a range of experts. Existing approaches (e.g. assessing species vulnerability, identifying the costs and benefits of a management option, assessing the potential invasiveness of a species) will need to draw on existing knowledge and expertise but will also need to incorporate new time and geographical scales.

3 1. Why we need to adapt

1.1 The climate context Much of Australia’s terrestrial 1.2 Key risks The Australian average surface air biodiversity is adapted to the Natural ecosystems have temperature has risen by 0.9 °C specific conditions found in its been identified as one of since 1910 and the number of current range, but predictions the most vulnerable sectors to extremely hot days increased indicate that species will climate change in Australia. (Figure 1), and if greenhouse experience substantially different Key risks include: gas emissions continue under local environments in the near • Extinction of some species, a business-as-usual scenario, future from those they experience particularly those with restricted Australia’s temperatures are now (Figure 3). Increases in warm or fragmented geographic projected to increase a further weather, heat extremes and a distributions and/or specialised 2.8–5.1 °C by the end of the decline in rainfall will force species ecological requirements, century (Figure 2). Current and to adjust to those environmental including narrow climatic predicted changes in temperature changes, through shifts in range tolerances. While some and rainfall are expected to cause and/or behaviour and physiology, species are likely to move or major shifts in climatic zones and or become extinct. disperse into more suitable result in hotter, drier conditions More information on the climate climate conditions, for some across the majority of Australia. context is available in: species moving to a more Along with an increase in extreme suitable climate is limited by weather events – including • NCCARF Terrestrial Biodiveristy 24 dispersal capabilities and/ drought, fire, heat waves and Report Card CSIRO and or geographical barriers. flooding – these changes are • Bureau of Meterology Climate already having significant impacts Change in Australia4 • Population losses are also on biodiversity, including changes expected due to climatic shifts, • AdaptNRM - Implications in species distributions, timing extreme heat or drought events of Climate Change for of biological behaviours and or fire. Heat-related mass Biodiversity Guide45 changed ecological interactions. mortality in individual animal

Figure 1 Number of extremely hot days (the Australian area-averaged daily mean temperature is above the 99th percentile) in each year for the period 1910–2013. Half of these extremely hot days have occurred in the past twenty years. Source: Bureau of Meteorology.2 4 species (e.g. flying foxes) climate change will increase the has been recorded for some geographic range and impact of time. Plants can likewise invasive species such as weeds, die following extreme heat disease and pests. Removing events, with some species or minimising existing human more vulnerable than others. stressors such as habitat loss and invasive species will continue to • Changes in species be important; however, climate assemblages are likely change will be an additional as to be the long-term well as an exacerbating stressor outcome of extinctions, on top of existing threats. It will losses and migration. become even more important • Other risks include loss to remove or minimise existing of ecosystem services stressors, especially those that and changed species may benefit from climate change interactions (for example, (e.g. the invasive cane toad may seasonal mismatch), including benefit from climate change pollinator services and more than native frogs). Climate predator–prey interactions. change will also have a variety of Climate change will also interact flow-on effects on biodiversity; for instance, increased CO with other threats, including 2 Figure 2 Annual mean temperature habitat loss and invasive species. concentrations lower the nutritional for present (a) and for late 21st century For example, human-induced quality of foliage, which in (b). Annual mean temperature is projected to increase by 2.8–5.1 °C land-use changes such as turn reduces its digestibility by herbivores.15 across the continent. Source: © urbanisation and farming can Commonwealth of Australia 2015, produce barriers to distributional Bureau of Meteorology.4 shifts. There is also evidence that

Figure 3 An example of the amount of change in ecological communities we might see under climate change by 2050. The darker the colour, the greater the change in the ecosystem from its composition in 1990. The scenarios on the left uses a ‘mild’ climate scenario, while the one on the right is for a ‘hot’ climate scenario. The four categories of similarity represented in the legend from dark (greatest change) to light (least change) from left to right are 0.25, 0.50, 0.75 and 1.00.45 5 2. The research base informing biodiversity and ecosystems under climate

2.1 Impacts are Predicted future impacts may and species richness will occur already happening include a decline in specialist under all future climate change The impacts of climate change on alpine ecosystems, such as snow scenarios. They found 88% of Australian biodiversity are already patch herbfields and cushion the modelled Carabid species being seen in a variety of habitats, plants7, a contraction of ferns and experience a population decline communities and taxa. For bogs42, and feral mammals may by over 80%, suggesting that example, researchers have noted move to higher elevations.25 In flightless ground beetles are the changes in the timing of life-cycle wetland areas, there is predicted most vulnerable taxa to climate events such as bird migration to be degradation and drying of change impacts in our wet tropics and breeding3, and population peatlands and wetlands and the World Heritage rainforests.34 loss of seasonal and ephemeral declines as a result of heat stress The observed and predicted ponds.46 Rainforest habitats and droughts in koalas, wetland impacts of climate change are expected to see changes birds and platypus have been on terrestrial systems were 16,17,31 to the structure of the rainforest detected. Some species have summarised in the Phase 1 canopy35, damage to some already shifted their geographical Report Card.24 ranges3, and there is evidence species due to high intensity of climate space having shifted cyclones10 and increased growth 2.2 Protected areas are not in previous decades for many of vines associated with increasing enough – we need 37 13 11 birds and fish . Mass die-off CO2, leading to tree mortality. a climate-ready events have been recorded in A number of other studies have conservation approach flying foxes and the endangered projected the biological impacts In the past, Australia has taken a Carnaby’s cockatoo during days of climate change with negative static approach to conservation, 30,41 of extreme heat. In reptiles, a results: Reside and colleagues29 preserving key species and change in the offspring sex ratio applied a vulnerability assessment areas of biodiversity through the has been related to increasing framework to 243 bird species protected areas system. Dunlop 39 6 temperatures. At the ecosystem inhabiting northern Australia and colleagues maintain that level, woody-thickening is and found that climate change this approach is not sufficient threatening a variety of grassland will have substantial impacts on to preserve biodiversity under 22 habitats across Australia , while tropical savanna birds, with Cape climate change – successful drought and reduced rainfall York species being particularly adaptation measures need have resulted in increased tree vulnerable.26,29 Dramatic changes to take a dynamic approach. mortality and shifts in species to species assemblage and Essentially, we can no longer 8 composition in some woodlands. species richness are predicted for focus on maintaining biodiversity In alpine regions, there has been Australian rainforest vertebrates, as it was pre-European a significant decline in depth with particular impacts to be settlement but need to recognise

and duration of snow cover, and felt among endemic, regionally and accept that communities there have been tree-line shifts of endemic and restricted species and species will change and 30–40 m in altitude during a 25- that will need to move up-slope to shift as the climate changes and 12,40 6 year period. track suitable habitat and respond plan accordingly. We also need to increased lowland biotic to first identify the sources of pressures.1,43 Flightless ground uncertainty and then make plans insects are also identified as that are flexible enough to deal vulnerable taxa. The distribution with this uncertainty. models by Staunton and There is evidence that the colleagues34 for ground beetles current reserve and protected (Carabidae) within the wet tropics areas system is not sufficiently of Australia suggest reductions climate-ready. Lukasiewicz and 6 in range size, population size colleagues19 state that the current fragmentation of protected areas to benefit the greatest number of 3. Strategies seek to conserve the in Australia poses a problem species and communities. They multiple different dimensions of for migration, especially for found that current landscape biodiversity that are experienced species with poor mobility or design approaches fall short and valued by society. The those that face human-made in protecting species from way society experiences and barriers to dispersal. future population declines. At values biodiversity differs very large spatial scales, they among individuals, sectors Maggini and colleagues21 and showed that the best option is to and locations. Narrow ideas Reside and colleagues27 modelled restore habitats to at least 30% of what we value in natural specific locations likely to provide native vegetation cover. Other systems will be difficult to refugia – the habitat that species studies have demonstrated that achieve under climate change. can retreat to under climate ecosystem resilience can also In particular, threatened species change. These studies found that be improved by increasing and ecological communities are the current reserve system and landscape diversity and by likely to become less effective as protected areas are not sufficient protecting ecosystem services tools. New approaches will need to allow species to move into such as pollination.18 to look to protect a wider range identified refugia areas, and for of values. some vertebrate species there Approaches to managing natural appear to be no natural refugial landscapes will need to be A range of tools and decision areas for them to move to. Habitat ‘recalibrated’ to accommodate frameworks have been developed connectivity will be a necessary significant changes in the future. that can help land managers and component of providing Dunlop and colleagues6 provide policymakers incorporate climate climate refugia if species change three adaptation propositions change into natural resource their migration patterns due to as the basis of a climate- management (NRM) plans (Box climatic changes.19 ready framing for conservation 1). These approaches focus on a management: number of key principles that will The results of modelling the spatial make up new approaches distribution of climate change 1. Conservation strategies to land management under refugia areas27 in Queensland accommodate large amounts climate change: have since been adopted by of ecological change and the Queensland Government in the likelihood of significant 1. Identifying and prioritising the Nature Refuges Program. climate change–induced loss refugia. The effect of climate This relatively new initiative is an in biodiversity. For example, change will be felt differently excellent example of research strategies might manage in different places in the rapidly informing policy and inevitable changes in the landscape. Refugia are those management to produce positive landscape to ensure more places regionally where we outcomes in on-the-ground preferable outcomes than expect many species can avoid environmental management.38 undesirable ones. the worst impacts of climate change. Identifying refugia can 2. Strategies remain relevant 2.3 New approaches help minimise biodiversity loss. and feasible under a range for the way forward Criteria that help identify what of possible future trajectories An ecosystem-based approach makes a suitable refuge and of ecological change. The has been identified as the best case studies of assessments uncertainties of predicting future approach to build resilience and are available in Reside and responses mean strategies adaptation to climate change colleagues.27,28 in terrestrial systems. Doerr should be effective under a and colleagues5 explored how wide range of different types or landscapes can be best designed scenarios of ecological change. to promote ecosystem-based adaptation and resilience in order 7 2. Designing and managing 4. Identifying the costs and 6. Assessing potential of invasive landscapes to increase benefits of adaptation species to spread. In the same ecosystem resilience. As actions. This approach is as way that the vulnerability of discussed above, looking applicable to natural systems species must be evaluated, more broadly at ecosystems as it is to infrastructure and assessment of the potential and the whole landscape will other adaptation responses. for invasive species to spread build greater resilience and Adaptation actions can require (or retract) is needed, and help ecosystems deal with significant initial investment (e.g. this can be done through shocks and changes. Doerr the Queensland Government is species modelling and tools. and colleagues5 outline five investing $5 million in purchasing For example, Weed Futures14 principles for the landscape land of high climate change provides a method to assess the approach that can be easily refuge status).33 A business case future of invasive species. adopted. They include acting can be built that shows longer 7. The potential of fire and fire- locally but thinking regionally, term savings from actions such weather to impact biodiversity. considering alien species as translocation of species, Restoration of vegetation, when undertaking restoration weed control, rebuilding or including the development work, investing much more in re-engineering ecosystem of vegetation corridors, while restoration (but acknowledging services. Some tools to help facilitating greater mobility there will undertake these analyses are for species, can also create be losers) and considering available in CATLoG and the new bushfire risks that may all land types in regional Systems Thinking Tools for be exacerbated by worsening spatial planning. Climate Change Adaptation36 fire-weather. Ongoing fire (see Box 1). CATLoG can also 3. Incorporating climate-ready management and assessment assist in analyses of costs due conservation planning. As will need to be considered to changes in climatic extremes discussed above, the approach in planning restoration and – a threat that will drive more advocated by Dunlop and tree planting. significant responses from colleagues6 is a climate- biological systems than gradual 8. Considering co-benefits. ready approach. It is about increases in climatic averages. Within land planning, there recalibrating what we think of as may be opportunities to derive conservation planning to include 5. Assessing species vulnerability. biodiversity or conservation managing change to get the While assessing species benefits through other land best outcome, keeping options vulnerability is not new, it uses. For example, funding and open and considering new will require an additional policies of carbon sequestration, values in conservation – ones understanding of how climate if carefully planned, can provide that reflect a broad section of change may impact on a additional species habitat, the community. species. Techniques include movement corridors and species distribution modelling, sustainable land management understanding behaviour and (e.g. through soil carbon physiology of species and sequestration if management knowledge of habitat suitability practices are changed). across the landscape. A number of tools and examples of species vulnerability assessments are available (e.g. Box 1; 9,44).

8 Box 1 A number of examples of decision frameworks and tools that have been developed to help land managers and policymakers incorporate climate change into natural resource management plans.

CATLoG – Climate Adaptation Landscapes Future Making decisions to Decision Support Tool for Analysis Tool23 conserve species under Local Governments36 climate change32 Agency: NCCARF Date: 2013 Agency: NCCARF Date: 2013 Authors: Shoo and colleagues Link: http://www.lfat.org.au/lfat/ Date: 2013 Link: https://www.nccarf.edu.au/ Description: Web-based publications/climate-adaptation- Link: http://link.springer.com/ visualisation and decision support decision-support-tool-local- article/10.1007/s10584-013-0699-2 tool designed to help natural governments resource managers. The software Description: A simple decision Description: Designed for local supports spatial planning for framework (Figure 4) to assist governments to compare and remnant vegetation management managers and policymakers to prioritise investment in climate and the establishment of prioritise decisions around climate change adaptation. Using an Excel corridors, considering the benefits change adaptation. based tool, the framework steps for biodiversity and economic The framework gives decision- users through first an economic trade-offs. It is currently developed makers actions to consider under analysis and then a multi-criteria for SA Murray Darling Basin and different scenarios. analysis. In this second step Eyre Peninsula, but the tool can CliMAS the analysis can incorporate be adapted to other regions if economic, environmental, social the required information is input. Agency: James Cook University and co-benefit values. Some of the approaches (e.g. Date: 2013 engaging with stakeholders) can Link: http://climas.hpc.jcu.edu.au/ Weed Futures14 be used without climate change. Description: This online tool Agency: Macquarie University, Systems Thinking Tools for allows users to produce maps and NCCARF Date: 2013 Climate Change Adaptation20 reports of species distributions Link: http://weedfutures.net/ for the present and climate Agency: NCCARF Date: 2013 Description: An online projections each decade up to decision support tool that allows Link: https://www.nccarf.edu. 2085 and for two greenhouse users to interrogate individual au/sites/default/files/attached_ gas scenarios. Users can profiles for 500 non-native files_publications/Maani_2013_ compare maps to see changes invasive or naturalised plant Decision-making_for_climate_ in distribution. This tool is useful species to determine their weed change_adaptation.pdf to help stakeholders visualise threat for a specific region now projected changes. Description: A guide to the and in the future. selection of adaptation tools that take a systems thinking and adaptive management approach, that is, decision-making that is iterative and considers the system as a whole (e.g. the landscape). The tool selection guide has the tools in the following groups: Problem framing and scoping tools, Qualitative/conceptual tools, Quantitative/probabilistic tools, Scenario thinking/planning tools 9 and Organisational learning. Decisions Actions

Re-evaluate

Monitor and Decreasing certainty reappraise, continue Decreasing co Is there a high risk that environmental No to improve suitability will decline under climate conventional change? conservation approaches Yes - benefit

Are there adequate Yes Secure/restore M1 of success

internal refugia? internal refugia of action for no No Yes Secure/restore Are there adequate M2 external refugia? external refugia n No -target No Can species move quickly enough? M3 species

Yes

Are movement pathways adequate or can Yes Secure /restore M4 they be restored? movement paths

No

Enough population genetic variation for Yes evolutionary response? E1

No Re-evaluate Yes Develop genetic Geographic genetic variation? E2 assisted colonization plan No

Yes Develop assisted Assisted colonization possible? M5 colonization plan increasing No Re-evaluate Extinction in the wild likely (EW) cost

Yes Develop ex situ Ex situ conservation possible? Ex1 conservation plan No

Extinction likely

Figure 4 A decision framework for management actions focused on reducing 10 the impacts of climate change.32 3. Evidence-based policy implications

ADAPTATION CHALLENGE 1: different spatial scales more Climate change means new Identify key adaptation effectively. The fundamental challenges in new places and pathways and principles for purpose of reserves or across scales beyond existing managing ecosystems protected areas may need to jurisdictions – including on Existing approaches be reconsidered to ensure private land. New management to managing terrestrial management options will be approaches must navigate ecosystems come from a more compatible with inevitable and negotiate with various land history of significant investment changes. This is likely to managers. Clarification of new in a particular conservation focus on a broader concept roles and responsibilities philosophy: managing in of land management for may be needed to help place, using pre-European multiple purposes and include improve the effectiveness of settlement as a conservation identification of opportunities adaptation planning. for conservation as well as benchmark and focusing on Decisions that affect ecosystems impacts and threats. Long-term rare and threatened species can be the responsibility planning timelines are likely to (e.g. the Environment Protection of numerous individuals, be more successful if they are Biodiversity Conservation Act organisations and levels of accompanied by the appropriate 1999, reserve systems). Climate government – from private policy framework, financial change has altered the current landholders (including Indigenous mechanisms and resourcing. view of how to prioritise values land owners), local government, of conservation, and it is clear It is also clear that the approach state and federal government, that more nimble and flexible to planning for ecosystems will to different branches of approaches will be needed. need to be more proactive than government, including New research and modelling has reactive. There is a need for more those responsible for roads, identified that most species and lead time and research to make conservation reserves, protected ecosystems will need to migrate some important decisions, such areas and defence lands. or change behaviour in order as the relocation of species and to find a climate that they can the testing of the adequacy of survive in. This means that many identified refugia. existing conservation areas will ADAPTATION CHALLENGE 2: not support current ecosystems and species into the future. Policy, Work across jurisdictions planning and management must and tenure and identify allow for these changes. Future roles and responsibilities habitats that may provide suitable Climate change will mean habitat or conditions (including many species and ecosystems refugia) are likely to be identified can no longer survive in their through modelling. current locations. Planning is likely to be most effective when Focus may need to shift to undertaken at a landscape consider concepts of resilience, scale and where greater ecosystem function, migration and flexibility in management refugia rather than conservation is encouraged. Working and preservation of existing at the landscape scale will ecosystems and species. Planning require greater cooperation will need to consider longer time and collaboration across frames as well as addressing jurisdictions and tenures. current changes and impacts. It will also need to address 11 This scale of management and move away from extension new social values are likely to need planning is likely to best suit a work. Close and trusted to be identified, negotiated and landscape approach. This will relationships can mean agreed to. require assembling information communities and individuals New principles of ecosystem about where species might look to local governments and management may include values migrate or retreat to and their industry bodies for guidance. such as preservation of individual chances of surviving in-situ; These organisations will benefit species, maintenance of specific and identifying potential refugia from understanding higher level ecosystems (including flow-on and corridors or connections (landscape) planning to make effects and intersections, such between ecosystems. By working appropriate local decisions and as clean water, flood mitigation), at the landscape scale, it may provide appropriate advice. facilitating species movement be possible to engage with Tensions between public and or acceptance of new species wider audiences that consider private interests and between composition of existing reserves. themselves to be land managers conflicting policies (e.g. but do not necessarily consider New management actions development versus conservation) themselves to be responsible for required for species conservation are likely to persist. However, there biodiversity. Current examples of and their viability in the face of are potential opportunities to build decisions that have been made climate change can be supported partnerships that can assess using these approaches include by good science (e.g. species appropriate trade-offs those by Australia’s network of modelling), but the selection of and co-benefits. For example, NRM groups. They are already management principles needs to a new development could be building adaptation plans at a have support from stakeholders. strategically located to allow for landscape scale that lessons can Personal interests and values, a future habitat refuge based on be learned from and built upon. industry values and competing species modelling. values will all influence social In a practical sense, this requires ideals, for example, whether to aligning policies and regulations ADAPTATION CHALLENGE 3: prioritise development or bushfire across jurisdictions and tenure. In Define social, economic safety over conservation. It is order to do this, there is likely to be and ideological values to important that any shifts to a new the need for a broader focus on drive land management and set of ecosystem management a range of issues (e.g. sediment policy arrangements principles are accompanied by planning, water sensitive urban Climate change will mean education and guidance. Simple design, water quality issues) at prioritising new environmental and digestible messages will be a landscape scale. Each vested and social values, and this will needed to help community and interest will have its own set change what we are managing other stakeholders understand the of values or priorities for land for, for example, individual rationale for any new values; this management. For example, one of species, ecosystem function or is why engagement on decision- Australia’s largest land managers, ecosystem resilience. making is important. the Australia Defence Force, While much of the research and has a clear legislative obligation policy to support ecosystem as to how they should manage management has focused on their land. the natural environment, in reality Groups such as NRM groups social and economic values drive and Catchment Management management and policies. Climate Authorities act as knowledge change will challenge existing brokers and provide advice, but a social values (e.g. the desire to gap in access to information may preserve pre-European species emerge as state governments diversity and ecosystems), and 12 ADAPTATION CHALLENGE 4: Where change is likely to be New challenges of climate Use new tools substantial, planning approaches change might create conflicting to make decisions will need to consider adopting management issues. For New decision support tools transformative solutions that are example, development of species and decision frameworks a major change in direction away movement corridors could are becoming available to from traditional approaches or potentially create a new fire help incorporate the new outcomes. Decisions are also likely threat. Existing pressures may be principles and values of land to need to consider a number of worsened by climate change (e.g. management that are emerging values, including social values and water stress, heat stress, dieback). under climate change into economic values. Where existing resources do not adequately address current decision-making. Ongoing monitoring of species pressures, adaptation will need to survival and prospects, ecosystem Climate change means that there work with inherited problems and health and adequacy and success will be ‘winners’ and ‘losers’ in new pressures associated with a of management approaches will the natural environment. Some changing climate. species and ecosystems have a be important to feed back into greater capacity to adapt and are decision-making for ongoing Competition for adaptation likely to be more successful, while adjustment and response. resources will also mean others might perish. For decision- competing against large ADAPTATION CHALLENGE 5: makers, the challenge is to identify and powerful sectors (e.g. and prioritise strategies that Collaborate to manage infrastructure), and it is likely that have high likelihood of ongoing new challenges, conflicting landscape management will need success. This may mean not goals and inherited to work with these competing investing in species with a very problems interests to incorporate an low chance of persistence and Land managers may be faced ecosystem-based approach into building strategies to deal with not only with new challenges, new sectors (see Section 2.3). the uncertainty associated with but interaction and escalation managing for the future. of existing problems and conflicting management goal. Decision support frameworks For example, will movement are beginning to emerge for corridors create new fire planning and managing terrestrial risks? These new challenges ecosystems for climate change highlight the need for (e.g. Figure 4). While they cannot collaborative approaches with produce a single answer, they a range of experts. can help narrow the available options by identifying benefits, Climate change will bring new costs, trade-offs and feasibility of challenges for land managers, a given course of action. Adaptive for example new fire threats management approaches will in previously wet vegetation become more important than ever, types (e.g. sphagnum bogs, and decisions are likely rainforest) or new invasive species. to be shaped with options to These new challenges must be test and adjust management as addressed in systems that are responses and outcomes are already under stress from existing better understood. pressures, and management approaches need to account for thresholds of multiple pressures.

13 4. Key information and references

NCCARF-supported research is marked with an asterisk*

1. Anderson A.S. et al. (2012) 10. Gleason S.M. et al. (2008). 19. Lukasiewicz A. et al. (2013) Immigrants and refugees: the Cyclone effects on the structure Identifying low risk climate importance of dispersal in and production of a tropical change adaptation in catchment mediating biotic attrition under upland rainforest: implications management whilst avoiding climate change. Global Change for the life history trade-offs. unintended consequences Biology 18, 2126–2134. Ecosystems 11, 1277-1290. (National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, 2. Bureau of Meteorology and 11. Granados J. and Korner C. (2002) Gold Coast).* CSIRO (2014) State of the In deep shade, elevated CO2 climate 2014 (Commonwealth of increase the vigour of tropical 20. Maani K. (2013) Decision-making Australia, Canberra). climbing plants. Global Change for climate change adaptation: 3. Chambers L.E. et al. (2005) Biology 8, 1109-1117. a systems thinking approach (National Climate Change Climate change and its impact 12. Green K. and Pickering on Australia’s avifauna. Emu 105, Adaptation Research Facility, C.M. (2009) The decline of Gold Coast).* 1-20. snowpatches in the snowy 4. CSIRO and Bureau of mountains of Australia: 21. Maggini R. et al. (2013) Protecting Meteorology (2015) Climate Importance of climate warming, and restoring habitat to help change in Australia: Information variable snow, and wind. Arctic, Australia’s threatened species for Australia’s natural resource Antarctic and Alpine Research adapt to climate change (National management regions: Technical 41(2), 212-218. Climate Change Adaptation report (CSIRO and Bureau of Research Facility, Gold Coast).* 13. Hill N.J. et al. (2016). Dynamic Meteorology, Australia). habitat suitability modelling 22. Mcinnis-Ng C. and Eamus D. 5. Doerr V.A.J. et al. (2013) reveals rapid poleward (2009) The increasing density Designing landscapes for distribution shift in a mobile apex of shrubs and trees across a biodiversity under climate predator. Global Change Biology landscape. (Land and Water change: Final report (National 22, 1086-1096. Australia, Braddon, ACT). Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast).* 14. Hughes L. et al. (2013) Prioritising 23. Meyer W. et al. (2013) Adapted naturalised plant species for future landscapes – from 6. Dunlop M. et al. (2013) Climate- threat assessment: Developing aspiration to implementation ready conservation objectives: a a decision tool for managers (National Climate Change scoping study (National Climate (National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Change Adaptation Research Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast).* Facility, Gold Coast).* Gold Coast).* 24. NCCARF (2013) Terrestrial 7. Edmonds T. et al. (2006) Annual 15. Kanowski J. 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