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Reprise… De La Crise ! 2011-2012 : REPRISE… DE LA CRISE ! VINCENT GOUYSSE 1ère édition, octobre 2012 WWW.MARXISME.FR Copyright Vincent Gouysse, octobre 2012. Diffusion libre de l’édition numérique : reproduction totale ou partielle du texte autorisée pour tous les pays sous réserve d’indiquer la source. Pour la traduction, s’adresser à l’auteur. Légende des illustrations de la couverture : → Première de couverture : Le 14 septembre 2012, des musulmans du Bangladesh brûlent le drapeau américain et israélien à l’occasion d’une manifestation contre le film « Innocence of Muslims ». — Un manifestant s’apprête à jeter une bombe incendiaire à l’occasion de protestions anti-austérité à Thessalonique en Grèce le 6 décembre 2011. — Le 25 septembre 2012, les dirigeants chinois président la cérémonie d’entrée en service actif du premier porte-avions chinois, le Liaoning. — Le 15 septembre 2012, des milliers de chinois venus manifester leur colère sont contenus par la police chinoise devant l’ambassade du Japon à Pékin alors que le gouvernement japonais vient de nationaliser les îles Diaoyu. — Le 9 septembre 2012, au lendemain du Sommet du mouvement des non-alignés de Téhéran, Wu Bangguo, président de l’APN, débute une visite officielle de quatre jours en Iran. → Quatrième de couverture : La nouvelle locomotive électrique de la CNR. Avec ses 10 MW, c’est la plus puissante locomotive de transport de fret au monde. — Retour sur terre triomphal des trois astronautes chinois après la réussite de la mission d’amarrage spatial de Shenzhou-9 avec Tiangong-1. —Tir du nouveau missile anti- aérien de moyenne portée HQ-16. — Le nouveau camion-grue mobile de 1 200 tonnes du groupe XCMG, capable notamment d’assembler de grosses éoliennes terrestres. — Un deuxième prototype du chasseur furtif chinois J-20 a rejoint la phase d’essais en vol au printemps 2012. — Une procession de patrouilleurs catamarans lance-missiles de type 022. — Une flottille militaire chinoise moderne composée d’un LPD de type 071, d’un pétrolier-ravitailleur de classe Fuchi, d’un destroyer de type 052C et d’une frégate de type 054A ISBN 978-1-291-10469-1 2 Sommaire : Avant-propos (p. 5) • Un secteur énergétique mondial frappé de plein fouet par la deuxième déferlante de la crise (p. 9) • L’industrie et les transports face à la retombée en récession (p. 23) • Un dragon avide de sciences et lancé à la conquête des espaces (p. 51) • L’économie mondiale face au mur de la crise de la dette (p. 79) • Frictions inter-impérialistes : la réponse du berger à la bergère… (p. 131) • Pays dépendants : quand les pays impérialistes en déclin cuisinent à l’étouffé… et à la mode coloniale ! (p. 159) Graphes (p. 194) Notes (p. 211) Annexe (p. 233) 3 - - 3 4 Avant-propos Dans notre dernier ouvrage, nous avions déjà souligné que les illusions de reprise économique ne tarderaient pas à se dissiper dans les pays impérialistes en déclin, avec à la clef un approfondissement de « la décomposition économique, sociale et politique » et « une flambée de la réaction dans leur cadre national comme à l’international ».1 La reprise économique mondiale « à deux vitesses » enregistrée en 2009- 2010 a aujourd’hui sans surprise cédé la place à la poursuite d’un rythme de croissance économique rapide en Chine tandis qu’un nombre croissant de pays impérialistes en déclin doivent faire face à une nouvelle récession induite par la mise en œuvre de plans d’austérité destinés à conjurer le spectre de la crise de la dette souveraine. Dans ce contexte, le « contraste » est de plus en plus saisissant entre « l'empire du Milieu » qui « se transforme, s'enrichit, s'émancipe » et « une Europe sans croissance ni unité politique, et surtout criblée de dettes », pouvait-on lire dans le dossier intitulé « Pourquoi la Chine fait peur », paru dans le n°769 du mois de décembre 2011 de la revue l’Expansion dont il a fait la une en couverture. « La crise économique a fait voler en éclats le semblant de cohésion européenne qui restait. Les pays les plus faibles jouent clairement la carte chinoise, pariant sur les retombées économiques d'éventuels investissements (…). Aux yeux de ces pays rongés par la crise et la flambée du chômage, la Chine apparaît comme un dernier recours pour sauver des emplois... au détriment parfois des entreprises locales. Leur logique court- termiste contraste avec le "temps long" de la stratégie chinoise ».2 Le moins que l’on puisse dire est que l’époque actuelle rend de plus en plus évident la montée inexorable de l’impérialisme chinois et la formidable capacité de résilience de son économie. Le 9 juillet dernier, le Quotidien du Peuple publiait un article intitulé « L'économie chinoise est en train de rebondir ». Illustré par une caricature des plus évocatrices que nous reproduisons ci- dessous, il soulignait qu’en dépit d’un ralentissement passager, l'économie chinoise conservait « un fort potentiel de croissance à long terme » alors que « la zone euro et même les Etats-Unis se dirig[eai]ent vers un coup de froid dangereux ». « Cela fait déjà deux ans que les Cassandre de tout poil prophétisent que la Chine va connaître un atterrissage difficile. Mais même si la Chine n'est pas immunisée contre les crises de la dette en Occident, elle est tout de même mieux placée pour y faire face ».3 5 - - 5 L’illustration précédente est suffisamment claire pour se passer de tout commentaire, si ce n’est qu’elle permet de comprendre en quoi les élites des pays impérialistes en déclin jugent la croissance chinoise "insolente" ! Ceci étant dit, étudions maintenant les manifestations et les conséquences de la retombée en récession des pays impérialistes en déclin à laquelle nous assistons aujourd’hui. 6 7 - - 7 8 Un secteur énergétique mondial frappé de plein fouet par la deuxième déferlante de la crise La reprise de la crise dans les pays impérialistes en déclin est aujourd’hui nettement corrélée par l’évolution de la consommation énergétique primaire à travers le monde, comme l’illustre le tableau ci-après. Variation de la consommation énergétique primaire de quelques pays Millions de tep 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Chine 1041,4 1105,8 1277,3 1512,5 1659,0 1831,9 1951,0 2041,7 2210,3 2402,9 2613,2 USA 2259,7 2295,5 2302,3 2348,8 2351,2 2332,7 2372,7 2320,2 2205,9 2277,9 2269,3 Russie 623,3 625,8 644,9 651,4 650,7 670,3 673,8 679,3 644,4 668,7 685,6 Inde 297,4 308,8 317,4 345,8 364,5 382,1 415,5 445,9 487,6 520,5 559,1 Japon 512,8 510,3 511,0 522,4 527,1 527,6 522,9 515,3 474,0 503,0 477,6 Canada 298,2 303,1 305,9 313,8 326,8 321,7 327,5 327,7 314,0 315,7 330,3 Allemagne 338,8 334,0 337,1 337,3 333,2 339,5 324,4 326,7 307,5 322,4 306,4 Brésil 182,3 186,2 190,3 200,1 207,0 212,6 225,6 235,9 234,3 258,0 266,9 Corée du Sud 193,9 203,1 209,8 213,8 220,8 222,9 231,9 236,4 237,4 255,6 263,0 France 258,4 255,4 259,3 263,6 261,2 259,2 256,7 257,8 244,0 251,8 242,9 Iran 130,9 144,1 152,0 158,4 179,2 189,3 195,1 200,9 212,6 223,0 228,6 Royaume-Uni 226,6 221,7 225,4 227,3 228,2 225,5 218,3 214,8 203,7 209,0 198,2 Italie 176,9 175,4 181,0 184,6 185,1 184,6 181,8 180,4 168,1 173,1 168,5 Espagne 135,3 137,5 145,3 151,3 153,8 155,2 159,8 155,6 145,2 149,2 145,9 Turquie 68,1 73,1 78,1 82,9 86,0 96,2 103,1 102,7 102,8 108,8 118,8 Grèce 32,1 33,0 32,7 34,2 33,9 34,9 34,9 34,5 33,1 31,7 30,5 2007 = 100 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Chine 53,4 56,7 65,5 77,5 85,0 93,9 100,0 104,7 113,3 123,2 133,9 USA 95,2 96,7 97,0 99,0 99,1 98,3 100,0 97,8 93,0 96,0 95,6 Russie 92,5 92,9 95,7 96,7 96,6 99,5 100,0 100,8 95,6 99,2 101,8 Inde 71,6 74,3 76,4 83,2 87,7 92,0 100,0 107,3 117,3 125,3 134,6 Japon 98,1 97,6 97,7 99,9 100,8 100,9 100,0 98,5 90,7 96,2 91,3 Canada 91,1 92,6 93,4 95,8 99,8 98,2 100,0 100,1 95,9 96,4 100,9 Allemagne 104,4 103,0 103,9 104,0 102,7 104,7 100,0 100,7 94,8 99,4 94,5 Brésil 80,8 82,5 84,3 88,7 91,7 94,3 100,0 104,6 103,9 114,4 118,3 Corée du Sud 83,6 87,6 90,5 92,2 95,2 96,1 100,0 102,0 102,4 110,2 113,4 France 100,6 99,5 101,0 102,7 101,7 100,9 100,0 100,4 95,0 98,1 94,6 Iran 67,1 73,9 77,9 81,1 91,8 97,0 100,0 103,0 109,0 114,2 117,1 Royaume-Uni 103,8 101,6 103,3 104,1 104,5 103,3 100,0 98,4 93,3 95,7 90,8 Italie 97,3 96,5 99,6 101,6 101,8 101,5 100,0 99,2 92,5 95,2 92,7 Espagne 84,7 86,1 91,0 94,7 96,2 97,1 100,0 97,4 90,9 93,4 91,3 Turquie 66,1 70,9 75,7 80,5 83,4 93,3 100,0 99,6 99,8 105,6 115,3 Grèce 92,1 94,6 93,8 98,2 97,2 100,0 100,0 99,1 95,1 90,9 87,4 9 - - 9 En 2011, la consommation énergétique primaire de la Chine a affiché une hausse de 8,8 % en glissement annuel, une croissance du même ordre que celle de son PIB.
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