National Maritime Foundation maritime PERSPECTIVES 2016 Edited by VIJAY SAKHUJA GURPREET S KHURANA Edited by Vijay Sakhuja Gurpreet S Khurana MARITIME PERSPECTIVES 2016 Edited by Vijay Sakhuja and Gurpreet S Khurana First Published in 2017 Copyright © National Maritime Foundation ISBN: 978-81-932998-2-1 Rs. 600.00 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without prior permission of the editors and the publisher. The views expressed in this volume are of the individual contributors and do not represent the official policy or position of the National Maritime Foundation, the Indian Navy, or the Government of India. Published by: NatiONAL MARITIME FOUNDatiON Varuna Complex, Airport Road, NH-8, New Delhi-110 010 Printed by: Alpha Graphics 6A/1, Ganga Chambers, W.E.A., Karol Bagh, New Delhi-110005 Mobile : 9312430311 Email : [email protected] Foreword The seas around us are gaining newfound importance as each day goes by, and I have no doubt that the current century is the ‘Century of the Seas’. It is, therefore, the endeavour of the National Maritime Foundation (NMF) to generate greater awareness on ‘matters maritime’ among the wider section of maritime thinkers, both in India and abroad. The expanding readership of NMF’s scholarship on current strategic, maritime and related geopolitical issues has been encouraging. This is disseminated in the form of View Points and Issue Briefs through the Foundation website, as also through its annual publication ‘Maritime Perspectives’, which puts together analyses of events and developments in the Indian Ocean, the Asia Pacific and beyond. It is amply clear that the year 2016 has been as dynamic as the preceding ones in terms of geo-strategic trends and developments. I am confident that Maritime Perspective 2016 would immensely help the strategic and academic communities in India and overseas to better understand these developments and the ramifications. Admiral RK Dhowan PVSM, AVSM, YSM (Retd.) Chairman National Maritime Foundation Contents Foreword 5 MARITIME DOCTRINE AND STRATEGY Indian Navy’s Maritime Security Strategy: An Assessment 13 Greg Kennedy & Harsh V Pant America’s Expectation Versus India’s Expediency: India as a Regional ‘Net Security Provider’ 21 Gurpreet S Khurana Indonesia’s Defence White Paper 2015: A Boost for ‘Global Maritime Fulcrum’? 29 Premesha Saha Indian Navy Updates Indian Maritime Doctrine 2009 32 Gurpreet S Khurana China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC): The Maritime-Strategic Dimension 35 Adarsh Vijay MARITIME SECURITY Sea Piracy during the Mughal Period (1556-1707): Major Players, Disposition and Motives 41 Neelima Joshi UN Security Council Renews Mandate to Combat Piracy off Somalia: Call for Sustained International Action 49 Himadri Das South China Sea: From Turbidity to Semblance of Tranquility 53 RS Vasan 7 Is the Chinese ADIZ Really Over the South China Sea Horizon? 60 Dinesh Yadav Strengthening Coastal Security through Cooperative Federalism 63 Himadri Das MARITIME FORCES AND CAPABILITIES South Sea Fleet: The Emerging ‘Lynchpin’ of China’s Naval Power Projection in the Indo-Pacific 69 Gurpreet S Khurana China-Russia Naval Exercises in South China Sea 78 Manpreet S. Chawla Navies and Maritime Militia: An Unequal Contest 81 Prakash Gopal China’s Anti-Ship Missiles – The Growing Asian Missile Gap 84 Ashutosh Singh China’s Undersea Glider Haiyi-7000: An Assessment 96 Dolma Tsering China delivers Submarines to Bangladesh: Imperatives, Intentions and Implications 99 Gurpreet S Khurana MARITIME COOPERATION First China-India Maritime Dialogue: Beyond ‘Icebreaking’ 105 Gurpreet S Khurana India and Maldives: A Triumph for Maritime Diplomacy 109 Prakash Gopal Indo-US Joint Naval Patrol – Plausible Proposal or Rhetoric 112 Dinesh Yadav Maldives President Visits India: Bilateral Partnership for Regional Security 115 G. Padmaja 8 MARITIME ECONOMICS 37th SAARC Council of Ministers Meeting: Bangladesh Takes the Lead on Blue Economy 131 G Padmaja Blue Economy and Secured Governance 139 P. Sekhar Sagarmala 2.0: Targeting Maritime Sector to Drive Economic Growth 143 G. Padmaja India’s Emerging Quest to Develop Inland Waterways 146 Vasudha Chawla Andhra Pradesh Port Policy 2015: Centre’s Vision and State’s Need 156 G. Padmaja Natural Gas Discoveries in the Levant Basin: India’s Prospects 163 Hriday Sarma GEOPOLITICS AND MARITIME LAW Modi’s visit to East Africa: Transforming Historical Relationships into Modern Partnerships 169 G. Padmaja Revival of China’s Colombo Port City Project: Implications for India – 1 177 Prakash Gopal Revival of Colombo Port City Project: Implications for India – 2 180 Anjelina Patrick Sri Lanka’s Proposal for an ‘Indian Ocean Order’: An Assessment 187 G. Padmaja China and Freedom of Navigation in South China Sea: The Context of International Tribunal’s Verdict 194 Gurpreet S Khurana 9 The South China Sea Adjudication and the Future of International Arbitration 202 Prakash Gopal Geo-politics of South Pacific Islands and India’s Strategic Interests 209 Balaji Chandramohan Vietnam’s Dilemma in Context of South China Sea: United States versus China 216 Shereen Sherif 10 Maritime Doctrine and Strategy Indian Navy’s Maritime Security Strategy: An Assessment Greg Kennedy & Harsh V Pant In February 2016, India’s Eastern Naval Sea dispute, Indian Prime Minister Command hosted the International Fleet Narendra Modi declared during the IFR Review (IFR), underlining Indian Navy’s that the Indian Ocean region remains growing prowess and ambitions. Though his government’s priority given India’s it was largely a ceremonial inspection of 1,200 island territories, and its huge naval warships by the Indian president, exclusive economic zone of 2.4 million it provided an opportunity to the Indian sq km. He further underlined the Indian Navy to showcase its might and rapidly Ocean region’s role “as a strategic bridge expanding capabilities. It was in 2001 with the nations in our immediate and that an event of such a scale was last extended maritime neighbourhood.”1 held in India and since then the Indian Underlining the need for a “modern Navy’s participating contingent has only and multi-dimensional Navy,” Prime grown bigger, with 75 frontline ships and Minister Modi stressed that India would submarines in attendance, in addition to continue to actively pursue and promote 24 ships and delegations from over 50 its geopolitical, strategic, and economic nations including Australia, Bangladesh, interests on the seas, in particular the Brazil, China, France, Indonesia, Iran, Indian Ocean.2 Maldives, the United Kingdom and the The Indian Navy has emerged as an United States. indispensable tool of Indian diplomacy Flagging the threat of sea-borne in recent years, making it imperative for terror and piracy as two key challenges Indian policy-makers and naval thinkers to maritime security and underlining the to think anew about the role of the need to respect freedom of navigation nation’s naval forces in Indian strategy.3 against the backdrop of South China Despite a general understanding among 13 Indian political elites that it was the economic zone, and island territories. littoral dominance by the European The Indian Navy would eventually powers that led to their colonial like to emerge as a world-class blue- ascendancy in the Indian heartland, water force, equipped to meet regional the focus on land frontiers led to the challenges, and threats and to safeguard dominance of the Indian Army in the India’s maritime interests. India needs a national security discourse. blue water navy not only to meet naval threats from China and Pakistan, but Until the end of the Cold War, the also to exploit its strategic location at the maritime dimension of India’s security centre of the Indian Ocean as well as to did not figure adequately in the national protect its extensive exclusive economic consciousness. Indian policy-makers did zone. not perceive the advantage of building up the nation’s maritime sinews as the At the heart of the Indian Ocean country remained concerned with Region (IOR), with control over vast the north and north-western frontiers areas of sea, India is in a pivotal position after partition rather than with her sea to provide security over its sea lines of frontiers. Yet despite the Indian Navy’s communication (SLOCs), resources marginalization and the preoccupation and territories. This presents the Indian of policymakers with safeguarding the Navy with significant challenges. The integrity of nation’s land frontiers, the security of the IOR and its SLOCs has a Indian Navy was largely successful in regional and world focus; moreover, the maintaining a credible naval force in the diverse number of states with interests region. in, or moving across, the IOR also Today, the Indian Navy’s original provide India with a complex security local sea control and shore defence dilemma. In a wider context, the Indian orientation, which largely focused on Navy must protect the nearly 100 ships preserving the integrity of Indian coastal that pass through its maritime area of waters from regional threats, has given interest daily. The SLOCs entering way to a more ambitious naval posture.4 and exiting the IOR pass through India’s naval policy is geared toward several narrow passages including ensuring the freedom of navigation the Straits of Hormuz, the Gulf of for shipping and safety of sea lines of Aden, the Suez Canal and the Straits communication as well as to safeguard its of Malacca, creating ‘chokepoints’. interests in contiguous waters, exclusive These present opportunities for rogue- 14 states and non-state actors, who do Therefore, given the combination of not possess a maritime capability, to these elements within the 2015 Indian interdict or disrupt shipping across Maritime Security Statement document, important east-west trade routes. The it is a useful window through which one resultant disruption or dislocation in can analyse Indian maritime strategic the trade chain would have very serious intention as well.