U.S.-India Security Burden-Sharing? the Potential for Coordinated Capacity-Building in the Indian Ocean
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U.S.-India Security Burden-Sharing? The Potential for Coordinated Capacity-Building in the Indian Ocean Nilanthi Samaranayake • Satu Limaye • Dmitry Gorenburg • Catherine Lea • Thomas A. Bowditch Cleared for Public Release DRM-2012-U-001121-Final2 April 2013 Strategic Studies is a division of CNA. This directorate conducts analyses of security policy, regional analyses, studies of political-military issues, and strategy and force assessments. CNA Strategic Studies is part of the global community of strategic studies institutes and in fact collaborates with many of them. On the ground experience is a hallmark of our regional work. Our specialists combine in-country experience, language skills, and the use of local primary-source data to produce empirically based work. All of our analysts have advanced degrees, and virtually all have lived and worked abroad. Similarly, our strategists and military/naval operations experts have either active duty experience or have served as field analysts with operating Navy and Marine Corps commands. They are skilled at anticipating the “problem after next” as well as determining measures of effectiveness to assess ongoing initiatives. A particular strength is bringing empirical methods to the evaluation of peace-time engagement and shaping activities. The Strategic Studies Division’s charter is global. In particular, our analysts have proven expertise in the following areas: The full range of Asian security issues The full range of Middle East related security issues, especially Iran and the Arabian Gulf Maritime strategy Insurgency and stabilization Future national security environment and forces European security issues, especially the Mediterranean littoral West Africa, especially the Gulf of Guinea Latin America The world’s most important navies Deterrence, arms control, missile defense and WMD proliferation The Strategic Studies Division is led by Dr. Eric V. Thompson, who is available at 703-824-2243 or [email protected] For questions or comments about this study, contact Nilanthi Samaranayake at [email protected]. Cover photo credits: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/photo/2012-04/23/131546103_21n.jpg http://www.aame.in/2012/12/us-navy-sailors-saluting-ins-sahyadri.html http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/12132/u-s-india-inch-toward-naval-partnership http://www.taand.com/english/index.php?mod=article&cat=News&article=2066 Approved for distribution: April 2013 Dr. W. Eugene Cobble, Jr., Director Strategic Initiatives Group Strategic Studies This document represents the best opinion of CNA at the time of issue. Cleared for public release. Distribution unlimited. Available at www.cna.org. Copyright © 2013 CNA This work was created in the performance of Federal Government Contract Number N00014-11-D-0323. Any copyright in this work is subject to the Government's Unlimited Rights license as defined in DFARS 252.227-7013 and/or DFARS 252.227-7014. Preface Building a partnership with India is central to U.S. security interests in the Indian Ocean (IO). The United States seeks to work with India to promote stability in a region of rising commercial and strategic importance. U.S. policymakers view India as an “anchor”1 or “pillar”2 of stability in the Asia-Pacific. Given declining defense budgets, how- ever, the United States will have fewer resources for its forces and partner capacity-building in this vast region. Envisioning India as a “provider of security in the broader Indian Ocean region,”3 the Unit- ed States is naturally eager to pursue burden-sharing opportunities with India as a means to this end. India for its part understands that the United States expects it to as- sume a greater leadership role in the IO and appreciates the im- portance of its growing economic and naval capabilities. In 2010, then-Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao spoke about the growing view that “a robust Indian naval presence is seen as a necessary contribu- tion to a cooperative regional security order” and discussed “the co- operative burden-sharing of naval forces to fight piracy off the coast of Somalia” as an example of India’s contributions to IO security.4 This report examines the potential for the United States and India to coordinate on the provision of security assistance and capacity- building in the IO as a form of security burden-sharing. We examine the South Asian littoral countries of Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Mal- dives. At present, though, U.S.-India burden-sharing in the Indian 1 U.S. Department of Defense, Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense, Jan. 5, 2012, p.2. 2 Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Wendy Sherman, “The United States and India: An Indispensable Partnership for the 21st Century,” Remarks at the American Center, New Delhi, India, Apr. 2, 2012. 3 U.S. Department of Defense, Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership, 2. 4 Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao, “India as a Consensual Stakeholder in the Indian Ocean: Policy Contours,” National Maritime Foundation, Nov. 19, 2010. i Ocean is only notional as a logical next step in the U.S.-India strategic partnership. U.S.-India coordination on security assistance to Bang- ladesh, Sri Lanka, and Maldives would represent an important change to the approaches and tools in U.S. and Indian relations with these IO countries. It would also be a new aspect of U.S. bilateral and military-to-military relations with India. This report may be of interest to analysts investigating how the Unit- ed States and India can take their growing relationship and converg- ing interests forward in the maritime realm and for the betterment of South Asian littoral countries. We conducted this research mostly in the first half of 2012, including trips to India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Maldives. The authors wish to thank the officials and experts interviewed who were generous with their time and insights. ii Contents Preface ................................................................................................ i Summary ............................................................................................ 1 Findings ............................................................................................. 4 Analytic approach ............................................................................. 4 Roadmap to the report .................................................................... 6 Scene setter: Background, sensitivities, and considerations ................ 7 India’s historical relations with Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Maldives ......................................................................................... 7 U.S. security interests in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Maldives ....................................................................................... 27 Factors facilitating and hindering U.S.-India security cooperation and burden-sharing .............................................. 41 Trends in security assistance and cooperation .................................. 47 Bangladesh ...................................................................................... 47 Sri Lanka ......................................................................................... 61 Maldives ........................................................................................... 78 Insights from the region: India ......................................................... 91 Structural challenges to U.S.-India coordination ........................ 92 Attitudinal challenges to U.S.-India coordination ...................... 94 Glimmers of hope .......................................................................... 99 Insights from the region: Smaller Indian Ocean countries ............. 101 Bangladesh .................................................................................... 102 Sri Lanka ....................................................................................... 106 Maldives ......................................................................................... 111 Conclusions and recommendations ................................................ 115 Conclusions ................................................................................... 115 Recommendations in the short term ......................................... 118 Recommendations in the long term .......................................... 120 Wildcards to track ......................................................................... 122 iii Appendix A: Interview respondents’ organizations ........................ 125 United States ................................................................................. 125 India ............................................................................................... 125 Bangladesh .................................................................................... 125 Sri Lanka ....................................................................................... 125 Maldives ......................................................................................... 126 Appendix B: Analysis of Mauritius and Seychelles ......................... 127 Appendix C: Coordinating in discrete functional areas .................. 131 Glossary ......................................................................................... 139 List of tables .................................................................................. 141 iv Summary The Indian Ocean (IO) is growing in strategic importance due to substantial trade and energy flows along