China’s Advanced Weapons Systems May 12, 2018 Lead Author: Tate Nurkin Contributing Authors Kelly Bedard, James Clad, Cameron Scott, Jon Grevatt Prepared for the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission Disclaimer: This research report was prepared at the request of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission to support its deliberations. Posting of the report to the Commission's website is intended to promote greater public understanding of the issues addressed by the Commission in its ongoing assessment of U.S.-China economic relations and their implications for U.S. security, as mandated by Public Law 106-398 and Public Law 113-291. However, it does not necessarily imply an endorsement by the Commission or any individual Commissioner of the views or conclusions expressed in this commissioned research report. China’s Advanced Weapons Systems Jane’s by IHS Markit 2 12 May 2018 About Jane’s by IHS Markit Jane’s by IHS Markit has a 120-year legacy as the global leader in the delivery of open source information and analysis on defense, security and defense industry issues to defense and intelligence communities as well as the global defense industry. We publish over 70 products, including Jane’s Defense Weekly, Jane’s Intelligence Review, Jane’s International Defense Review, Jane’s Military and Security Assessments, Jane’s Markets Forecasts, Jane’s Navigating the Emerging Markets and Jane’s Defense Equipment and Technology. In addition to our publications, Jane’s also provides trainings on open source research and analysis methods and techniques and provides customized reports on key emerging defense and security issues. In 2007 Jane’s was acquired by IHS, Inc., a publicly held information services company. In 2016, IHS merged with Markit, a financial services information provider to form IHS Markit, a company with business lines focused on financial markets, energy, automotive, maritime and trade, aerospace and defense, chemicals, technology, media and telecommunications, economics and country risk, and product design and standards. About the Authors Delivery of this report was led by Tate Nurkin, a Senior Associate with Jane’s. Tate previously established and ran Jane’s Strategic Assessments and Futures Studies Center from December 2013 – February 2018. The SAFS Center was dedicated to tracking geopolitical, military and industry competitions and how innovations in technology, competitive strategies, and operational concepts can drive these competitions in new directions. Tate has 20-plus years tracking China’s military modernization effort and the future of military capabilities. In March 2018, Tate started OTH Intelligence Group LLC. The core Jane’s team also included analysts Kelly Bedard and Cameron Scott as well as Jon Grevatt and James Clad, subject matter experts on China’s defense industrial base and broader defense and geopolitical dynamics in the Indo-Pacific. Comments may be sent to: Tate Nurkin Senior Associate Jane’s by IHS Markit [email protected] China’s Advanced Weapons Systems Jane’s by IHS Markit 3 12 May 2018 Table of Contents Acronyms 4 Executive Summary 7 Background, Objectives, Methods and Structure 18 Section 1: Strategic Context Chapter 1: China’s Military Modernization: Status, Objectives and Priorities 25 Chapter 2: China’s Defense Industrial Base, STEM Education and S&T Innovation Capacity 63 Chapter 3: China, the Fourth Industrial Revolution and Artificial Intelligence 107 Section 2: China’s Advanced Weapons Systems Chapter 4: Overview China’s Advanced Weapons Systems Industry 126 Chapter 5: China’s Counter-Space Capability 137 Chapter 6: China’s Unmanned Systems 150 Chapter 7: China’s Maneuverable Reentry Vehicles (MaRVs) 177 Chapter 8: China’s Directed Energy Weapons 200 Chapter 9: China’s Electromagnetic Railguns and Hyper-Velocity Weapons 213 Section 3: Implications and Recommendations Chapter 10: Implications 226 Chapter 11: Recommendations 238 China’s Advanced Weapons Systems Jane’s by IHS Markit 4 12 May 2018 Acronyms A2/AD Anti-Access/Area Denial AAW Anti-Air Warfare AECC Aero-Engine Corporation of China / Aero-Engine Group of China AFRL Air Force Research Laboratory AI Artificial Intelligence AR Augmented Reality ASAT Anti-Satellite ASBM Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile ASW Anti-Submarine Warfare AUV Autonomous Underwater Vehicle AVIC Aviation Industry Corporation of China BAT Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent (three major Chinese high-tech companies) BLOS Beyond-Line-Of-Sight BMD Ballistic Missile Defense C4ISTAR Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Information/Intelligence, Surveillance, Targeting Acquisition and Reconnaissance CASC China Aerospace Science and Technology Company CASIC China Aerospace Science and Industry Company CCP Chinese Communist Party CETC China Electronic Technology Group Corporation CFIUS Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States CHIRP Commercially Hosted Infrared Payload CIWS Close-In Weapon System CMC Central Military Commission CMI Civil-Military Integration CNSA China National Space Administration COMAC Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China CONOPs Concept of Operations CSIC China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation CSSC China State Shipbuilding Corporation DARPA U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency DoD U.S. Department of Defense DUI(x) Defense Innovation Unit Experimental EM Electromagnetic EML Electromagnetic Launcher EW Electronic Warfare FEL Free Electron Lasers GEUAV Ground Effect Unmanned Aerial Vehicle GPS Global Positioning System GSSAP Geosynchronous Space Situational Awareness Program HALE High-Altitude Long Endurance HAWC Hypersonic Air-Breathing Weapon Concept HGV Hypersonic Glide Vehicles HiFIRE Hypersonic International Flight Research Experimentation HSMW High-Speed Maneuvering Weapons HVP Hyper-Velocity Projectile IC Intelligence Community ICBM Intercontinental Ballistic Missile IED Improvised Explosive device China’s Advanced Weapons Systems Jane’s by IHS Markit 5 12 May 2018 IEPS Integrated Electrical Power System ISR Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance ISTAR Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition and Reconnaissance KE-ASAT Kinetic Energy Anti-Satellite kW Kilowatt LEO Low Earth Orbit MAHEM DARPA’s Magneto Hydrodynamic Explosive Munition weapon MALE Medium-Altitude Long Endurance MaRV Maneuverable Re-entry vehicle MBT Main Battle Tank MGWOT Maximum Gross Take-Off Weight (sometimes MTOW/Maximum Takeoff Weight) MIIT Ministry of Industry and Information Technology MOR Mixed Ownership Reform MOST Ministry of Science and Technology MW Megawatt NORINCO China North Industries Group Corporation ONA U.S. Office of Net Assessment PISA Program for International Student Assessment PLA People’s Liberation Army PLAAF People’s Liberation Army- Air Force PLAN People’s Liberation Army- Navy PLARF People’s Liberation Army- Rocket Force PSC Politburo Standing Committee QUESS Quantum Experiments at Space Scale R&D Research and Development RELI U.S. Army’s Robust Electric Laser Initiative RMB Renminbi ROV Remotely Operated Vehicle RPG Rocket Propelled Grenade S&T Science and Technology SASTIND State Agency for Science, Technology and National Defense SATCOM Satellite Communication SIPRI Stockholm International Peace Research Institute SLV Space Launch Vehicle SSBM Ballistic Missile Submarine SSN Nuclear powered submarine STEM Science, Technology, Engineering and Math STFC Science Technology Facilities Council TACAIR Tactical Air THAAD Terminal High Altitude Area Defense TPP Trans-Pacific Partnership UAV Unmanned Aerial Vehicle UCAV Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle UGV Unmanned Ground Vehicle USV Unmanned Surface Vehicle UUV Unmanned Underwater Vehicle VTOL Vertical Take-Off and Landing China’s Advanced Weapons Systems Jane’s by IHS Markit 6 12 May 2018 This paper uses Chinese designations for ships and other sea platforms where appropriate. Ship Type Chinese Designation NATO Designation Aircraft Carrier Type 001 Liaoning-class Aircraft Carrier Type 002 (Forthcoming) Attack Craft Type 037G Houxin-class Submarine Type 039 Yuan-class Destroyer Type 052 Luhu-class Frigate Type 053 Jianghu-class Light Frigate Type 053H3 Jiangwei II-class Frigate Type 054 Jiangkai-class Destroyer Type 055 Renhai-class Corvette Type 056 Jiangdao-class Amphibious Transport Dock Type 071 Yuzhao-class Landing Ship Tank Type 072 Yukan-class Mine Countermeasure Vessel Type 081 Wochi-class Mine Countermeasure Vessel Type 082 Wosao-class SSN Type 093 Shang-class SSN Type 094 Jin-class SSN Type 095 Sui-class SSBN Type 096 (Forthcoming) Icebreaker Type 272 (Unknown) Intelligence-gathering Ship Type 815 Dondiao-class General Supply Vessel Type 901 (Forthcoming) Replenishment Ship Type 903 Fuchi-class Mine Countermeasure Vessel Type 6610 (Unknown) China’s Advanced Weapons Systems Jane’s by IHS Markit 7 12 May 2018 Executive Summary Jane’s research and analysis examined five categories of China’s advanced weapons systems: counter-space, unmanned systems, maneuverable reentry vehicles, directed energy and electromagnetic railguns. In addition, this report also focuses on China’s notable investment in and emphasis on development of artificial intelligence applications for national defense. The following key themes and insights across four linked analytical categories emerged throughout the course of our research: • The strategic context in which China’s advanced weapons systems are being developed • China’s defense industrial base and science and technology community • The advanced weapons themselves • Policy measures and investments