EUROPEAN SECURITY FORUM A JOINT INITIATIVE OF CEPS, IISS AND DCAF QUID UKRAINE’S STRATEGIC SECURITY? ESF WORKING PAPER NO. 24 JANUARY 2007 ALEXANDER BOGOMOLOV JAMES SHERR ARKADY MOSHES F. STEPHEN LARRABEE © COPYRIGHT 2007, CEPS, IISS & DCAF ISBN 978-92-9079-686-2 CENTRE FOR INTERNATIONAL GENEVA CENTRE EUROPEAN INSTITUTE FOR FOR THE POLICY STRATEGIC DEMOCRATIC CONTROL STUDIES STUDIES OF ARMED FORCES Place du Congrès 1, B-1000 Brussels, Belgium Arundel House, 13-15 Arundel Street, Temple Place Rue de Chantepoulet 11, P.O. Box 1360 Tel: +32 (0)2.229.39.11 Fax: +32 (0)2.219.41.51 London WC2R 3DX, United Kingdom 1211 Geneva 1, Switzerland www.ceps.be E-mail:
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[email protected] Quid Ukraine’s Strategic Security? Working Paper No. 24 of the European Security Forum Contents Chairman’s Summing-up ........................................................................................................................ 1 François Heisbourg Ukraine’s Strategic Security On a Crossroads between Democracy and Neutrality............................... 4 Alexander Bogomolov Ukraine’s Security The Interplay of Internal & External Factors ......................................................... 17 James Sherr Ukraine’s Strategic Security Crossroads Passed, Bumpy Road Ahead or an Optimistic View? .......... 23 Arkady Moshes Ukrainian Foreign and Security Policy after the Collapse of the Orange Coalition ............................. 30 F. Stephen Larrabee Chairman’s Summing-up François Heisbourg* o introduce our proceedings we were fortunate to benefit from four papers, presented by their authors: Alexander Bogomolov of Maidan.org, James Scherr of the UK Defence Academy and TLincoln College, Arkady Moshes of the Finnish Institute for International Relations and Stephen Larrabee of the Rand Corporation, Washington, D.C.