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The Irish Border, Brexit and the Eu the Route to Frictionless Trade

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The Irish Border, Brexit and the Eu the Route to Frictionless Trade POLITEIA THE IRISH BORDER, BREXIT AND THE EU THE ROUTE TO FRICTIONLESS TRADE RAY BASSETT www.europeanreform.org @europeanreform Established by Margaret Thatcher, New Direction is Europe’s leading free market political foundation & publisher with offices in Brussels, London, Rome & Warsaw. New Direction is registered in Belgium as a not-for-profit organisation and is partly funded by the European Parliament. REGISTERED OFFICE: Rue du Trône, 4, 1000 Brussels, Belgium. EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR: Naweed Khan. www.europeanreform.org @europeanreform The European Parliament and New Direction assume no responsibility for the opinions expressed in this publication. Sole liability rests with the author. AUTHOR TABLE OF CONTENTS Dr Ray Bassett Dr Ray Bassett has been a senior diplomat at Ireland’s Department of Foreign Affairs in Dublin and has served 1 INTRODUCTION: BREXIT AND IRELAND’S INTERESTS 6 as the country’s Ambassador to Canada, Jamaica and the Bahamas, 2010-2016. Other diplomatic postings 2 BREXIT, THE BORDER AND THE BELFAST/GOOD FRIDAY AGREEMENT 10 include Copenhagen, Canberra, Belfast (twice), London and Ottawa. 3 THE POLICY OPTIONS 14 He was involved in the Good Friday Agreement 4 HOW TO MAKE BREXIT WORK – IRELAND’S OPPORTUNITIES 22 negotiations as part of the Irish Government Talks Team 5 CONCLUSION 28 and participated throughout the discussions, including the final session at Castle Buildings in Stormont. THE LEGAL FRAMEWORK: IRELAND’S OPTIONS by David Collins 30 Dr Bassett, who worked as a scientist (biochemist) before entering the diplomatic service, is a columnist on FAMILY TIES – THE ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL REALITY by Liam Halligan 34 the Sunday Business Post and a regular contributor to TV and radio shows in Dublin, London and Belfast. HOW TO TRADE ON TRUST- BAR CODES, TECHNOLOGY AND PRE-CLEARANCE by John Mills 38 APPENDIX 42 COMMENTARIES David Collins Liam Halligan John Mills David Collins is Professor of Liam Halligan is an economist and John Mills is a British entrepreneur, International Economic Law at City, co-author of Clean Brexit: How to make economist and businessman. He is University of London and a WTO a success of leaving the European the founder and Chairman of JML, specialist. He previously practised Union (2017) with Gerard Lyons. Since a UK-based international consumer commercial litigation in Toronto and 2003, he has written a weekly multiple products company with a presence in was a prosecutor for the Attorney award-winning ‘Economics Agenda’ 70 countries. He is the author of Call General in Ontario. column in The Sunday Telegraph. to Action: Britain’s Economic Problems He also writes regularly for Unherd. and How They Can Be Solved with His previous publications include com, The Spectator, The Sun and Bryan Gould (2015) and A Critical An Introduction to International appears three times a week on CNN- History of Economics (2002). Investment Law (2016), The World Talk. Trade Organization Beginner’s Guide (2015), Performance Requirements Between 2007 and 2013 he was and Investment Incentives under Chief Economist at Prosperity International Economic Law (2015) and Capital Management, which focuses The BRIC States and Outward Foreign on Russia, Central Asia and Eastern Direct Investment (2013). His Politeia Europe. publications include Negotiating Brexit: The Legal Basis for EU and Global Trade (4th edition, July 2018). New Direction - The Foundation for European Reform www.europeanreform.org @europeanreform The Irish Border, Brexit and the EU - The Route to Frictionless Trade Ray Bassett 1 INTRODUCTION BREXIT AND IRELAND’S INTERESTS 6 New Direction - The Foundation for European Reform www.europeanreform.org @europeanreform 7 The Irish Border, Brexit and the EU - The Route to Frictionless Trade Ray Bassett n Ireland, the 2016 Brexit referendum result in overall result was greeted with dismay and surprise in CTA is terminated? The tiny numbers of Irish living in Ireland and its political leaders, Leo Varadkar, the the UK was a huge shock. Despite the rhetoric at Nationalist circles in the North. mainland Europe, in comparison to the Anglophone Taoiseach, and the Tánaiste (Deputy PM), Simon I the time, there was little or no real preparation, world, demonstrate that there is no real popular Coveney, have adopted a confrontational and at either psychologically or materially, for a pro-Brexit Brexit is very serious business for Ireland. There is identification with Europe. times unhelpful line which risks repeating the same outcome. no other EU member State which is as economically, mistake as was made in the Cameron renegotiation, culturally, linguistically and geographically intertwined Economically, the UK is vital for Irish interests. With with similarly adverse consequences for Ireland. Ireland had nailed its colours to the EU mast, with the UK, as Ireland. According to the Department close to 50 per cent of Ireland’s beef exports going to The answer lies partly in the historical legacy of the right from the outset, with no plan B. This led it to of Foreign Affairs and Trade in Dublin, there are over the UK (280,000 tons according to Irish government’s division of Ireland into two states, together with a making a disastrous decision during the Cameron 500,000 Irish born citizens resident in GB, compared latest figures), and the UK taking between 40-50 per large misplaced dose of Europhilia. re-negotiation with the EU, not to assist the UK to to just over 17,000 in Spain, the country in the EU cent of exports from Irish owned SMEs. Much of these get any meaningful concessions. Such concessions with the second highest number of Irish born. It is exports originate away from Ireland’s affluent east There is currently little optimism on the possibility of might have made it easier for the Remain side to win. estimated that there are under 10,000 Irish born living coast, in places where alternative employment would an early breakthrough in the vital area of agreeing It was a gamble and one which backfired badly. This permanently in France. In many respects, Ireland and be difficult to access. In addition, the UK is Ireland’s future trading arrangements between the EU and the followed the earlier decision not to support David the UK form a single labour market, a shared cultural trade portal for the rest of the world. UK. The original Chequers proposals (July 2018) were Cameron when he tried unsuccessfully to block the space and a long history of interactions and migration rejected by the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier appointment of Federalist Jean Claude Juncker as between our two islands. Almost every home in the While the growth of US multinational firms in the and EU leaders at their 18 October Salzburg meeting. President of the EU Commission in 2014. Cameron Republic of Ireland has access to British TV stations Republic has assisted in greatly lessening Ireland’s Since then the UK parliament has made clear that it had argued that this appointment would make it more and radio, which have large audiences there. British traditional dependence on the UK market (now will rule out the proposed Withdrawal Agreement. It is difficult to keep the UK in the EU. newspapers circulate widely. Culturally the country is around 15 per cent of the total), more than 80 per apparent that neither the EU Commission’s Backstop heavily within the Anglophone sphere. cent by value and over 90 per cent by volume of Irish proposal, namely to retain Northern Ireland inside The Irish public service, both politicians and officials, in total exports, use the UK transport system to reach the Single Market nor the alternative to keep the both cases got it horribly wrong. This cohort, through Ireland enjoys the full benefits of the Common Travel markets worldwide. It is simply fanciful to imagine entire UK in an EU customs union arrangement, is constant meetings and connections with the EU, is Area (CTA) with Britain and its people are not treated that Ireland could reorganise its trading patterns to acceptable unless a reasonable end date is included. considerably more pro Brussels orientated than the as foreigners in UK immigration law, a position which avoid sending the bulk of its goods through the land Time is rapidly running out and there needs to be a general Irish population. It was only too willing to has historically been true since the creation of the Irish bridge in Britain to world markets. sensible compromise that caters for the requirements believe the over optimistic briefings that both Brussels Free State. It is overwhelmingly the net beneficiary of of both sides, one that will offer a clear way forward and the British establishment had given them in private. bilateral arrangements with its neighbouring island. Hence, it is overwhelmingly in Ireland’s interest that on future partnerships. By adopting an aggressively antagonistic position on the UK and the EU agree to friction-free arrangements A similar pattern of excessive pro EU sentiment could British proposals in the Brexit discussions, Ireland is across a wide range of areas. Rationally, Ireland should This analysis explores constructive arrangements also be seen in the British public service in the run placing that relationship in danger. There is scarcely be the UK’s strongest ally inside the EU, pressing for for cross border trade between the UK and Ireland. up to the referendum. Hence, the confusion in Dublin a family on the island of Ireland who does not have the best possible terms and a successful Brexit. There It explains why it is strongly in Ireland and the UK’s in the immediate aftermath of the result. In addition, kinship ties with GB. No one on the island of Ireland will are numerous other examples of the importance of interests to maintain frictionless trade and a soft border the Nationalist community in Northern Ireland did not thank its political leaders if the result of their efforts is British links to Ireland economically.
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