Money Week Quote Jan 24Th 2020
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MoneyWeek 24 January2020|Issue983 Britain’sbest-selling financial magazine From theexecutive editor... As regularreaders dinner,“Whothe hell cares mayknow, I’m about thebudget?”. That’s no always on thelook- surprise coming from aproperty outfor contrarian manlikeTrump,but it is a indicators –signs surprise whenit’saddressedto that abelief supporters of theUSpolitical hasbecomesowidespreadin partythat’ssupposed to be the markets that even themost fiscallyresponsible one. extremeoutcomesmustbe As BenHuntofthe Epsilon “pricedin”.Davos –the Theory blog points out:“If you Switzerland-basedtalking shop don’tsee that everygovernment forthe greatand thegoodand in thedeveloped worldisabout thegrossly overpaid –isusually to embark on amassive deficit- k oc fertilegroundfor such indicators st spending spree... you’re just not er tt andthisyearhas proved no hu Gordon Brown: bust followed boom as usual paying attention”. exception. In an interviewwith ©S What does this all imply? Bloombergthisweek, Bob “Davos is usually fertile ground for contrarian It rather impliesthatthe race to Prince,the co-chief investment indicators and this year is no exception” thebottom–in termsofpublic officerofBridgewater,the financesand monetarypolicy– world’sbiggest hedgefund, came out downsinthe economy, that makeshis continues. It impliesthatassetpriceswill with this beauty. Arguing that central jobharder. continue higher until inflationtakes off. banksaround theworld hadlearned their However, hisfeelingsare irrelevant. It impliesthatyou should probably lesson from theFederal Reserve’sabortive Thereare twomainissueshere,one linked owngold(whichis, in fact,one of the attempts to raiseinterest ratesin2018, he to investmentmarkets andthe otherto suggestionsthatPrinceagrees with). Oh, said:“...we’ve probably seen theend of the economic policies.Onthe investment andifyou’relooking for other contrarian boom-bust cycle”. side,ifeveryonebelievesthatinterest rates notionsfromDavos,you should probably Now, as Albert EdwardsofSociete will stay lowforever andthatthere’s no ownenergystocks. Firstly, accordingto Generale pointedout on Twitterin pointin“fighting theFed”, then even the theBoA survey,fundmanagersstill hate response to thisquote,our former prime bearswill go all in on stocks.Bankof them rightnow –evenworse than they ministerand chancellor Gordon Brown America’s(BoA) latest survey of global hate cash.Secondly, andhot from Davos, famously claimedtohaveended “boom fund managerscertainly suggests that we also hadJamie Dimon –the chief andbust” for theUKeconomy –right “capitulation” is coming closer. Fund executive of JP MorganChase,currently aheadofthe financialcrisisin2008. managersare currentlyholdinglesscash king of thebanking sector –arguing for So in termsoftemptingfate, it’s quitea than they have at anypoint since2013. acarbontax.Justbewaryofplaying the claimtomake. Admittedly,Prince, unlike On theeconomicside, if politicians sector viaRussia(seeMatthew Lynn’s Brown, didn’t appear especiallyhappy come to believethatboomand bust is over, column on page16). aboutboomand bust beingscrapped. then there is nothingtostop them from Hedgefunds (inthe popularmythology, deciding that thereare no limits to their at least)makemoneyfromvolatility. spending.USpresident Donald Trump John Stepek If centralbanks have endedthe upsand reportedly told donors at arecent private [email protected] od ee fo Scandal of the week Go w k r: Billionaire Peter Hargreaves (pictured) is to establish a charitable Africa’s richest woman, foundation, to provide financial support to help underprivileged Isabel dos Santos young people and those with disabilities through education and (pictured), is accused of sport, says The Times. Hargreaves will transfer shares worth exploiting Angola’s £100m from his 32% stake in Hargreaves Lansdown, the assets to enrich herself investment platform he startedin1981, andsteppedbackfrom whileher father,former almost five yearsago.The foundation will hold on to theshares for presidentJoséEduardo at leasttwo yearsand draw on theincome, whichwould have been dos Santos,was in wortharound£2.2m last year. power,saysMichael t in Forsythe in TheNew es lM ag TheVan GoghMuseuminAmsterdam hasauthenticatedan1889 ya York Times. The Im Ro ty self-portraitofVincent VanGoghasgenuine. Norway’s s; et to “Luanda leak”of715,000 ©G Nasjonalmuseet hasowned it since1910, but itsauthenticityhad pho documents relating to ock been disputed since1970. However, VanGoghreferstothe “whenI St ;i her business activitiesprovides“apaper trail” of es wasill”painting–theonlyone he created whilebeing treatedfor howshe andher husband,Sindika Dokolo, mag psychosisfor sixweeks in summer 1889 –inaletter to hisbrother, yI tt amassed $2bn viastakesinAngolan telecoms, Theo,fromthe same year.In1998, another VanGoghself-portrait Ge : diamondsand construction firms. Forexample,in os from 1889 sold for$71.5mwithChristie’sinNew York. 2017,$57mwas transferredfromAngola’s state ot Ph oilcompany,Sonangol, whichshe chaired at the am. Badweekfor: lli time,toaDubai firm ownedbyafriend.This Wi “drained”Sonangol’s accountatEuroBic,the JaimeBotin,amemberofthe Spanish bankingfamilythathas run Mc rd European armofanAngolan bank whichis42.5% Santanderfor overacentury,has been fined€52.4mand wa Ho ownedbydos Santos.The bank said it hasended sentencedto18months in prison,for smugglingPablo Picasso’s n: its“commercial relationship”withher andwill Head of aYoung Woman outofSpain,saysBloomberg. Botinhad tio investigate. Angola’sgovernment claims to have been deniedanexportpermittosellitthrough Christie’s in London k ustra oc ll been deprived of $1bn andhas vowedtoforce her in 2012.The €26m painting waslater foundonhis yacht, off st ri er to return. DosSantosdeniesany wrongdoing. tt Corsica, in 2015.Ithas sincebeenhandedtothe ReinaSofia art ve hu Co ©S museum in Madrid, whileauthoritiesdecidewheretosend it. moneyweek.com 24 January2020 MoneyWeek 4 Markets Trade truce boosts stocks – for now Alex Rankine Markets editor Don’t get too excited about the new “phase one” US-China trade deal, says James Palmer in Foreign Policy. Donald Trump heralded a “momentous step” after formally signing the accord with the Chinese vice premier, Liu He, last week, but this limited agreement will only “forestall further escalation” rather than unwind the damage already done to global trade. Tradetruce,not trade peace Markets saw the sunny side. The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average all posted their biggest weekly percentage gains since August last week, note Chris Matthews and Mark DeCambre for MarketWatch. “The Nasdaq has climbed for six straight weeks, os with a year-to-date return of 4.6%”. The ot kph pan-European Stoxx Europe 600 hit a new The price of soybeans has fallen since the deal was announced oc St record high on Friday and the FTSE 100 ©i regained a six-month peak. fallen since the deal was announced, while Even as negotiators signed off the deal, Beijing has pledged to increase its wheat, pork and dairy products have federal agencies were considering new imports from the US by $200bn, roughly barely moved. That is a sign of serious restrictions on Chinese telecoms champion double the current level. Washington will doubts about whether the paper promises Huawei, which they deem a security suspend some planned tariffs and halve the will have any “real economic impact”. threat, says Nathaniel Taplin in The Wall tariff rate applied to $120bn-worth Street Journal. Top US officials speak of a of goods. Carryondecoupling “clash of civilisations”. So this agreement is The fact that “tariffs on hundreds of It would help if America knew what unlikely to herald an era of calm. Over the billions of dollars’ worth” of other goods it wanted, writes Martin Wolf in