Teaching Strategic Weapons Proliferation: Selected Readings

Why Worry About Strategic Weapons Proliferation?

Because the questions raised here overlap heavily with the questions raised in the syllabus’ last, “What’s Our Future?”, the readings listed in the last section should be considered in addition to the few listed here.

Freeman Dyson, Weapons and Hope (New York, NY: Harper and Row, l984).

Martin van Creveld, Technology and War: From 2000 BC to the Present (New York, NY: Free Press, l989).

Scott Sagan, “Why Do State Build Nuclear Weapons? Three Models in Search of a Bomb,” International Security, Vo. 21, No. 3 (Winter l996/97), pp. 54-86.

Scott Sagan, and Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Revised Debate (New York, NY: W.W. Norton and Co., 2002).

Zackery S. Davis and Benjamin Frankel, eds., The Proliferation Puzzle: Why Nuclear Weapons Spread and What Results (London, UK: Franck Cass, l993).

Henry Sokolski, “Fighting Proliferation With Intelligence,” in Henry Sokolski, ed., Fighting Proliferation: New Concerns for the Nineties (Maxwell Air Force Base, AL: Air University Press, l996), pp.277-98. This discussion of how to define and analyze strategic weapons proliferation prescriptively (which the Cheney Pentagon adopted in the very early l990s) can be downloaded at www.npec-web.org

The Nuclear Threat Initiative has a discussion of the descriptive definition of proliferation used during the Clinton years that can be downloaded at http://www.nti.org/f_wmd411/f1a1.html

James Digby, “Precision-Guided Weapons,” Adelphi Paper, No. 118 (London, UK: IISS, l975).

Robert G. Spulak, Jr. Strategic Sufficiency and Long-Range Precision Weapons, “ Strategic Review, Summer l994, pp. 31-39.

Fred Ikle, “The Problem of the Next Lenin,” The National Interest, Spring l997, pp. 9-19.

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What Do We Know About Strategic Weapons and the Threats They Pose?

Chemical and Biological Agents

There are many excellent books and websites addressing chemical and biological weapons related issues – i.e., the basic facts regarding these weapons’ production, the effects of their use, the dual-use issues associated with them, how they have been used by nations and terrorists, how one can defend against their effects, and what new technical developments might alter the threats they currently pose. Among the most comprehensive and helpful are:

Eric Croddy, Chemical and Biological Warfare: A Comprehensive Survey For the Concerned Citizen (New York, NY: Copernicus Books, 2002).

Erich Croddy, Chemical and Biological Warfare: An Annotated Bibliography (Lanham, MD: The Scarecrow Press, Inc., l997).

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, The Problem of Chemical and Biological Warfare, Vols. 1-6 (Stockholm: Almqvist & Wiksell, l971-75)

The Chemical and Biological Information Analysis Center (CBIAC) offers an extensive list of chemical and biological weapons related bibliographies, documents and other information services copies of which can be ordered directly from the website at http://www.battelle.org

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) website has a comprehensive listing of readings relating to chemical and biological weapons issues at http://www.sipri.se/

Other relevant publications with extensive references include:

Ken Alibek, Biohazard (New York, NY: Random House, 1999).

Judith Miller, Germs (New York, NY: Simon & Schuster, 2001).

Edward N. Spiers, Chemical Weapons: A Continuing Challenge (London: MacMillian Press, LTD, l989).

35 On the matter of use and threatened use and terrorism, the Croddy publications noted above are quite useful as are the following:

Seth Carus, Bioterrorism and Biocrimes: The Elicit Use of Biological Agents in the Twentieth Century (Washington, DC: Center for Counterproliferation, July l999). The full text of this compilation can be accessed at http://www.ndu.edu/ndu/centercounter/Full_Doc.pdf.

Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Chemical and Biological Weapons Nonproliferation Program, Chronology of State Use and Biological and Chemical Weapons Control, http://www.cns.miis.edu/research/cbw/pastuse.htm.

Amy E. Smithson and Leslie-Anne Levy, Ataxia: The Chemical and Biological Terrorism Threat and the US Response (Washington, DC: The Henry Stimson Center, Report No. 35, October 2000).

David Rapoport, “Terrorism and Weapons of the Apocalypse,” in Henry Sokolski editor, Twenty-First Century Weapons Proliferation: Are We Ready? (London, UK: Frank Cass, 2001), pp. 4-14.

Long-Range Missiles

Harry G. Stine, ICBM: The Making of the Weapon that Changed the World (New York, NY: Orion Books, l991).

Col. Robert B. Giffen, “Space Basics,” in Space and Future Warfare (Maxwell Air Force Base, AL: US Air War College, l993).

George P. Sutton, Rocket Propulsion: A Tutorial Presentation (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, P.O. Box 808, Mail Station L-389, Livermore, CA 94550, viewgraphs and four videocassettes, l989).

Arnold Engineering Development Center, Short-Range Ballistic Missile (SRBM) Infrastructure Requirements for Third World Countries (Arnold Air Force Base, TN: Arnold Engineering Development Center, AEDC-1040S-04-91, September l991).

Robert G. Brown, Inertial Guidance in the Space Age (Milwaukee, WS: General Motors Corporation, l960).

Steve Berner, “Proliferation of Satellite Imaging Capabilities: Developments and Implications,” in Henry Sokolski, ed., Fighting Proliferation: New Concerns for the Nineties (MAFB, AL: Air University Press, l996), pp. 95-129. This and other essays in Fighting Proliferation can be downloaded after linking through http://www.npec-web.org/pages/papers.htm

36

Scott Pace, et al., The Global Position System: Assessing National Policies (Santa Monica, CA: The RAND Corporation, l995).

Humphrey C. Ewing, Robin Ranger, David Bosdet, and David Wiencek, Cruise Missiles: Precision and Countermeasures (Lancaster, UK: Center for Defence and International Security, Lancaster University, Bailrigg Memorandum 10, l995).

Denis M. Gormley and Scott McMahon, “Proliferation of Land-Attack Cruise Missiles: Prospects and Policy Implications in Fighting Proliferation, pp. 131-67.

Gary Milhollin, “The Link Between Space Launch and Missile Technology,” March 16, 2000 at http://www.wisconsinproject.org/pubs/speeches/2000 and “India’s Missiles: With a Little Help form Our Friends,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, November l989.

Brian G. Chow, Emerging National Space Launch Programs: Economics and Safeguards (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, R-4179-USPD, l993).

Henry Sokolski, “Space Technology Transfers and Missile Proliferation”, a presentation before the Rumsfeld Commission on the Ballistic Missile Threat. This report can be downloaded at http://www.npec-web.org/pages/papers.htm

Henry Sokolski, "US Satellites to China: Unseen Proliferation Concerns," International Defense Review, April 1994, pp. 23-26.

David R. Tanks, National Missile Defense: Policy Issues and Technological Capabilities (Boston, MA: Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, July 2000). Can be downloaded from www.ifpa.org.

U.S. Government Accounting Office, “Cruise Missile Defense: Progress Made but Significant Challenges Remain,” (Washington, DC: USGPO, GAO/NSIAD- 99-68, March l999). This report can be downloaded from http://www.gao.gov

David R. Israel, “History Repeats?” Journal of Defense Research (Vol. 21). September l992.

National Air Intelligence Center, Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat, (Wright- Patterson Air Force Base, OH: National Air Intelligence Center, September 2000, NAIC-1031-0985-00, call (937) 257-2378).

Donald H. Rumsfeld, et al. Executive Summary of the Report of the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States (Washington, DC: July 15, l998). This report can be downloaded from http://www.fas.org/irp.threat/bm- threat.htm

37

John R. Harvey, “Regional Ballistic Missiles and Advanced Strike Aircraft: Comparing Military Effectiveness,” International Security, Fall l992, pp. 41-83.

Gregory S. Jones, The Iraqi Ballistic Missile Program: The Gulf War and the Future of the Missile Threat (Marina Del Rey, CA: American Institute for Strategic Cooperation, Summer l992).

The Carnegie Endowment for Peace’s Project on Nonproliferation has an extensive charting of the world’s missile arsenals that can be downloaded at http://www.ceip.org/files/projects/npp/resources/ballisticmissilechart.htm.

The Nuclear Threat Initiative also has an archival search engine for a vast array of articles on nuclear and missile issues that can be accessed at http://www.nti.org/db/nuclear/index.html

Nuclear Energy

Some of the most useful publications and websites addressing what nuclear weapons have been deployed, the basic facts relating to the production of nuclear energy, the weapons effects of nuclear munitions, and the dual-use issues relating to nuclear power include:

The Natural Resources Defense Council, “The Internet and the Bomb: A Research Guide,” http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/nuguide/guinx.asp. This website is an excellent guide to what is available on the Internet.

The Federation of American Scientists (FAS), http://www.fas.org, contains brief technical primers on nuclear energy and weapons production (http://www.fas.org/nuke/intro/nuke/index/html) as well as extensive pdf files drawn from U.S. Congressional Office of Technology Assessment publications and the Nuclear Weapons Databooks published by NRDC.

The Brookings Institution has posted the findings of its nuclear weapons cost project on the web. These findings literally chart the nuclear weapons efforts of the major powers over the last half-century. See, http://www.brook.edu/dybdocroot/FP/PROJECTS/NUCWCOST/WEAPONS.HT M

The Nuclear Threat Initiative has an extensive bibliographic essay on nuclear topics and an archival search engine for a vast array of articles on nuclear and missile issues that can be accessed at http://www.nti.org/db/nuclear/index.html

38 The Nuclear Control Institute (NCI) has extensive materials on the dangers of using nuclear weapons usable fuels in the civilian sector and the deficiencies of existing international nuclear controls and safeguards. These can be accessed at http://www.nci.org

Henry D. Smyth, Atomic Energy for Military Purposes: The Official Report on the Development of the Atomic Bomb Under the Auspices of the United States Government, l940-45 (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, l989).

Robert Serber, The Los Alamos Primer, The First Lecutres on How to Build An Atomic Bomb (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, l972).

John McPhee, The Curve of Binding Energy (Westminster, MD: Ballantine Books, l975).

Richard Rhodes, The Making of the Atomic Bomb (New York, NY: Simon and Schuster, l986).

Richard Rhodes, Dark Sun: The Making of the Hydrogen Bomb (New York, NY: Simon and Schuster, l995

Samuel Glasstone and Philip J. Dolan, The Effects of Nuclear Weapons (Washington DC: The United States Departments of Defense and Energy, l977).

Walter C. Patterson, Nuclear Power (Harmondsworth, UK: Penguin, l976).

Anthony Nero, A Guidebook to Nuclear Reactors (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, l979).

Robert W. Seldon, Reactor Plutonium and Nuclear Explosives (Livermore, CA: Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, 1978).

J. Carson Mark, “Reactor-Grade Plutonium’s Explosive Properties,” in NPT At the Crossroads (Washington, DC: The Nuclear Control Institute, l990)

Albert Wohlstetter e. al., Swords form Plowshares: The Military Potential of Civilian Nuclear Energy (Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, l979).

Kevin O’Neill, editor, Civil Separated Plutonium Stocks: Planning for the Future, Proceedings of the March 14-15, 2000 Conference (Washington, DC: Institute for Science and International Security, 2001).

Frank Von Hippel, “Getting Back to Basics: Controlling Fissile Materials,” in Henry Sokolski and Jim Ludes, eds., Twenty-First Century Weapons Proliferation: Are We Ready? (London, UK: Frank Cass, 2001), pp. 84-98.

39 David Albright, Francs Berkhout, and William Walker, Plutonium and Highly Enriched Uranium l996 World Inventories, Capabilities and Policies (New York, NY: Oxford University Press, l997)

Thomas Cochran, “Nuclear Energy’s Proliferation Problem,” in Patrick L. Clawson ed. Energy and National Security in the 21st Century (Washington, DC: National Defense University Press, l995), pp. 95-116.

Thomas B. Cochran, William Arkin, and Militon Hoenig, Nuclear Weapons Databook Volume 1: US. Nuclear Forces and Capabilities (Cambridge MA: Ballinger Publishing Co., l984).

______, Nuclear Weapons Databook, Volume 2: U.S. Nuclear Warhead Production (Cambridge, MA: Ballinger Publishing Co., l984).

Robert S. Norris, Andrew S. Burrows, and Richard W. Fieldhouse, Nuclear Weapons Databook Volume V: British, French, and Chinese Nuclear Weapons (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1994).

The relation between strategic bombing and the nuclear strategies the US and other nations adopted, how nuclear weapons have used (or been threatened to be used) are topics nearly as vast as the history of the last century. Some of the best publications containing extensive historical references include:

Sir Charles Webster and Noble Frankland, The Strategic Air Offensive Against Germany, l939-1945 (London, UK: Her Majesty’s Stationery Office, l961).

B.H. Liddel Hart, “The Crescendo of Bombing: The Strategic Air Offensive Against Germany,” in History of the Second World War (New York, NY, G.G. Putnam’s Sons, l970), pp. 589-612.

Ronald Schaffer, “American Military Ethics in World War II: The Bombing of German Civilians,” The Journal of American History, September l980, pp. 318- 24.

Lawrence Freedman, “The Strategy of Hiroshima,” The Journal of Strategic Studies, May l978, pp. 76-97.

“Prospectus on Nucleonics (The Jeffries Report) and the Franck Report, reprinted in Alice Kimball Smith, A Peril and a Hope (Chicago, IL: The University of Chicago Press, l965), pp. 550-54, 560-65.

Dexter Masters and Katherine Way, eds., One World or None (New York, NY: MacGraw-Hill Book Co., Inc., l946).

40 Jacob Viner, “The Implications of the Atomic Bomb for International Relations,” in International Economics: Studies by Jacob Viner (Glenco, IL: The Free Press, l95l), pp. 300-09.

Bernard Brodie, Strategy in the Missile Age (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, l965).

Peter Pringle and James Spigelman, The Nuclear Barons (New York, NY: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, l981).

Willaim E. Burrows and Robert Windrem, Critical Mass: The Dangerous Race for Super weapons in a Fragmenting World (New York, NY: Simon and Schuster, l994).

Stephen M. Younger, Nuclear Weapons in the 21st Century, LAUR-00-2850, June 27, 2000. This discussion of the future of nuclear weapons can be downloaded at http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/usa/doctrine/doe/younger.htm

The National Security Archives has collected numerous primary historical documents relating to US nuclear policies. These can be accessed at http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/nsa/NC/nuchis.html

How Has the Threat of Strategic Weapons Proliferation Been Addressed?

On the definitional issues, see the citations offered under “Why Worry About Strategic Weapons Proliferation?” and

Thomas C. Schelling and M.H. Halperin Strategy and Arms (Washington, DC: Pergamon-Brassey’s, l985).

Zackery Davis, “The Convergence of Arms Control and Nonproliferation: Viva la Difference “ The Nonproliferation Review, Spring-Summer l999.

U.S. Defense Threat Reduction Agency, Weapons of Mass Destruction Terms Handbook (Alexandria, VA: Defense Threat Reduction Agency, 1 July l999). Copies of this and more recent editions can be acquired from the The Director Dfense Threat Reduction Agency, Joint Nuclear Accident Coordination Center (JNACC), 6801 Telegraph Road, Alexandria, VA 22310-3398, Phone 703-325- 2102).

41 On the history of efforts to control the spread of nuclear weapons capabilities and their effectiveness, the following include useful documentation and references:

U.S. Department of State, A Report on the International Control of Atomic Energy, Publication No. 2498 (Washington, DC: USGPO, March 16, l946). This is sometimes referred to as the Acheson-Lillienthal Report.

State, Documents on Disarmament l945-1959, 2 Volumes (Washington, DC, USGPO, l960). After l960, these comprehensive annual compilations were published by the U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency through l996.

Alice Kimball Smith, A Peril and a Hope (Chicago, IL: The University of Chicago Press, l965).

Richard G. Hewlett and Oscar E. Anderson Jr, The New World, l939-46 (Washington, DC: U.S. Atomic Energy Commission, l972).

Richard G. Hewlett and Francis Duncan, Atomic Shield, l947-52 (Washington, DC: U.S. Atomic Energy Commission, l972)

Richard G. Hewlett and Jack M. Holl, Atoms for Peace and War (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, l989).

Joseph Pilat, ed., Atoms for Peace: An Analysis after Thirty Years (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, l985).

Henry Sokolski, Best of Intentions: America’s Campaign Against Strategic Weapons Proliferation (Westport, Conn.: Praeger, 2001). This history covers the Baruch Plan, Eisenhower’s Atoms for Peace Program, negotiation of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, formation and implementation of the proliferation control regimes, and the counterproliferation initiative.

Fred Kapan, The Wizards of Armageddon (New York, NY: Simon and Schuster, l983)

Lawrence Scheinman, The International Atomic Energy Agency and World Nuclear Order (Washington, DC: Resources for the Future, l983).

Richard T. Cupitt, Reluctant Champions: U.S. Presidential Policy and Strategic Export Controls (New York, NY: Routledge Press, 2000).

U.S. Senate, Committee on Governmental Affairs, Nuclear Proliferation Factbook (Washington, DC: USGPO, December l994). This publication contains key US nuclear policy statements over the last half century, nuclear technical documents, international agreements and US nonproliferation laws.

42 Leonard S. Spector, Nuclear Proliferation Today (New York, NY: Vintage Books, l984).

Spector, Leonard S. The Undeclared Bomb. Cambridge MA: Ballinger Publishing Company, 1988.

Leonard S. Spector and Jacqueline R. Smith, Nuclear Ambitions: The Spread of Nuclear Weapons 1989-1990 (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1990).

Joseph Cirincione, Jon B. Wolstahal and Miriam Rajkumar, Deadly Arsenals (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment, 2002).

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) maintains a website at http://www.iaea.org/worldatom/ at which copies of the IAEA Statute, “The Structure and Content of Agreements Between the Agency and States required in Connection with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (INFCIRC 153)”, and all other existing specific safeguards agreements can be found. This site also features agency news and other technical reports.

The Nuclear Control Institute, http://www.nci.org has an extensive set of studies on the shortcomings of existing IAEA and US nuclear nonproliferation controls that can be downloaded from its website.

On the facts concerning the operation of other proliferation controls and their effectiveness, the following include extensive documentation and references:

Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) maintains a website at http://www.opcw.org at which copies of the Chemical Weapons Convention and supporting documents can be found.

The Australia Group (AG) maintains an official website at http://www.australiagroup.net/index.html. The origins, objectives, and key documents of the AG , its relation to the Chemical Weapons Convention and the Biological Weapons Convention, updated control lists, activities, and latest news all can be found at this site.

The U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of Nonproliferation has created a webpage at http://www.state.gov/www/global/arms/np/mtcr/mtcr.html, which is dedicated to detailing and documenting the controls under the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR). A copy of the MTCR control list along with an annotated explanation of each provision can be downloaded from this site along with an updated list of fact sheets and news announcements regarding US implementation of these controls.

43 SIPRI maintains a webpage coving the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) that can be accessed at http://projects.sipri.se/expcon/NSG_documents.html, and contains a detailed history and the most recent official documents regarding the NSG.U.S. Department of

Johnathan B. Tucker, ed., The Chemical Weapons Convention: Implementation Challenges, and Solutions (Washington, DC: Center for Nonproliferation Studies, April 2001).

Kahleen C. Bailey, “Problems with A Chemical Weapons Ban, ORBIS, Sspring l992, pp. 239-51.

The Nonproliferation Policy Reform Task Force, “The Biological Weapons Protocol: How Practical, How Desirable? A Debate” with presentations by Dr. Barbara Hatch Rosenberg, Federation of American Scientists, Dr. Alan Zelicoff, Sandia National Laboratories, Dr. Amy Smithson, the Henry L. Stimson Center, Dr. Robert Kadlec, the National War College, August 10, 2000. This forum with written presentations can be downloaded from http://www.npec- web.org/pages/projects.htm

Wyn Q. Bowen, The Politics of Ballistic Missile Nonproliferation (New York, NY: St. Martin’s Press, Inc, 2000).

Richard Speier, “Technology and the Development of New Regimes: Lessons from the Missile Technology Control Regime,” in Deepla M. Ollapally ed., Controlling Weapons of Mass Destruction (Washington, DC: United State Institute of Peace, 2001 at http://63.104.169.22/pubs/Peaceworks/pwks41.pdf

Richard Speier, “An Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty for Missiles?” in Fighting Proliferation, pp. 57-74.

Regarding less formal efforts to stem strategic weapons proliferation including security assurances, imposed or bilateral inspections, cooperative threat reduction programs, and the Agreed Framework with North Korea, see

Zachary S. Davis and Mitchell B. Reiss, “Nuclear Nonproliferation: Where Has the United States Won and Why?,”Henry Sokolski ed., Prevailing in a Well- Armed World (Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, 2000). This collection of essays may be downloaded from http://www.armyh.mil/usassi/welcome,htm

Seymour M. Hersh, The Samson Option: Israel’s Nuclear Arsenal and American Foreign Policy (New York, NY: Vintage Books, l993).

David Kay, “Denial and Deception Practices of WMD Proliferators: Iraq and Beyond,” The Washington Quarterly, Winter l995.

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Ambassador Rolf Ekeus, Testimony Before the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, 20 March l996, in U.S. Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs, Global Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction, Part II, 104th Cong., 2nd Sess., pp. 90-105.

Khidhir Hamza, “Inside Saddam’s Secret Nuclear Program,” The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September/October l998, pp. 26-33.

Chen Zak, Iran’s Nuclear Policy and the IAEA (Washington, DC: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy Military Research Papers, 2002).

Fred Ikle, “ After Detection What?” Foreign Affairs, January l96l, pp. 208-20.

Extensive information on the Cooperative Threat Reduction programs and other U.S. nonproliferation cooperation efforts with the former Soviet republics can be found at the websites of the Nuclear Threat Reduction Program (http://www.nti.org), the Carnegie Nonproliferation Project (http://www.ceip.org), and the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at Monterey (http://www.cns.miis.edu).

Henry D. Sokolski and Thomas Riisager, eds., Beyond Nunn-Lugar: Curbing the Next Wave of Weapons Proliferation Threats from Russia (Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, April 2002). Copies of this collection of critical analyses of US- Russian nonproliferation cooperation can be downloaded from http://www.carlisle.army.mil/usassi/welcome.htm or can be obtained by calling 717-245-4133.

Arm Control Association Press Conference, “Progress and Challenges in Denuclearizing North Korea,” featuring former Ambassador Robert Gallucci, Marc Vogelaar (KEDO), and Leon Sigal, April 10, 2002. This extensive set of presentation can be download at http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2002_05/pressmay02.asp. This site also contains other presentations supportive of the Agreed Framework’s current implementation.

Additional detailed information on the Agreed Framework’s implementation can be found at the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization website at http://www.kedo.org

Victor Gilinsky, Nuclear Blackmail: The l994 U.S.-DPRK Agreed Framework on North Korea’s Nuclear Program (Stanford, CA: The Hoover Institution, l997). For more recent critical assessments of how the Agreed Framework is being implemented, see http:///npec-web.org

45 On counterproliferation, the following contain useful references and key arguments:

Les Aspin, Remarks before the National Academy of Sciences Committee on International Security and Arms Control, 7 December l993, reprinted in Best of Intentions.

Thomas G. Mahnken, “Counterproliferation: Shy of Winning,” in Prevailing in a Well Armed World, volume cited above.

Ashton B. Carter and Celeste Johnson, “Beyond the Counterproliferation Initiative,” in Twenty-first Century Weapons Proliferation, pp.64-71.

Robert Joseph and John Reichart, Deterrence and Defense in a Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Environment (Washington, DC: National Defense University, Counterproliferation Center, l999).

Peter Lavoy, et. al., Planning The Unthinkable: How New Powers Will Use Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical Weapons (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 2000).

David Andre, “Competitive Strategies: An Approach Against Proliferation?” in Fighting Proliferation, pp. 257-76. Volume cited above.

On countersuperterrorism, the following materials deserve review:

The Nuclear Control Institute’s website noted above.

Mason Willrich and T.B. Taylor, Nuclear Theft: Risks and Safeguards (Cambridge, MA: Ballinger, l974).

Wild Atom: Nuclear Terrorism, Report of the CSIS Task Force on Global Organized Crime (Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies, l998).

Christopher Chyba, “Biological Terrorism and Public Health,” Survival, 43 (1), pp. 93-106.

On how one might define success and failure against proliferation and specific cases, the following readings should help provoke further analysis:

Henry Sokolski, “Nonproliferation: Strategies for Winning, Losing and Coping,” in Prevailing in A Well-Armed World, pp. 51-64. Volume cited above.

46 Matthias Kuntzel, Bonn and the Bomb: German Politics and the Nuclear Option, (Amsterdam, Holland: Transnational Institute, l995).

Avner Cohen, Israel and the Bomb (New York, NY: Columbia University Press, l998).

George Perkovich, India’s Nuclear Bomb: The Impact on Global Proliferation (Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, l999).

Lawrence Scheinman, Atomic Energy Policy In France Under the Fourth Republic (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, l965).

David Holloway, Stalin and the Bomb: The Soviet Union and Atomic Energy, 1939-1956 (New Haven, CN: Yale University Press, 1994).

Margaret Gowling And Lora Arnold, Independence and Deterrence: Britain and Atomic Energy, l945-52, 2 Vols. (London, UK: Macmillan, l974).

William C. Potter, The Politics of Nuclear Renunciation: The Cases of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine (Washington, DC: Henry L. Stimson Center Occasional Paper No. 22, April l995).

Mitchell Reiss, Bridled Ambition: Why Countries Constrain their Nuclear Capabilities (Washington, DC: Woodrow Wilson Center Press, l985).

Mitchell Reiss, Without the Bomb: The Politics of Nuclear Nonproliferation (New York, NY: Columbia University Press, l988).

47

What’s Our Future?

There are several arguments regarding the nature of states and man that suggest strategic weapons use or proliferation is both inevitable and probably intractable. Some of the most basic of these arguments can be found in

Donald Kagan, On the Origins of War and the Preservation of Peace (New York: Doubleday, 1995).

Hans Morgenthau, Politics Among Nations: the Struggle for Power and Peace (New York: Knopf, 1967).

Michael Howard, The Invention of Peace: Reflections on War and International Order (New Haven, CN: Yale University Press, 2000).

Among the key arguments as to why proliferation may be inevitable but can be managed (or may even be beneficial) are

Kenneth Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: More May be Better, Adelphi Paper 171 (London, UK: IISS, l98l).

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and William Riker, “An Assessment of the Merits of Selective Nuclear Proliferation,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, 26, 2 (l982), pp. 283-306.

Arquilla, John. 1997. "Nuclear Weapons in South Asia: More May Be Manageable." Comparative Strategy 16 (April): 13-32.

On the desirability of (or need for) world government or a coalition of democracies to prevent nuclear war or promote peace see:

Smith, Alice Kimball. A Peril and a Hope: The Scientists' Movement in America, 1945-47 (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1965).

Roger Hilsman, From Nuclear Military Strategy to a World without War: A History and a Proposal (London : Praeger, 1999).

Max Singer and Aaron Wildavsky, The Real World Order: Zones of Peace and Zones of Turmoil (Chatham, NJ: Chatham House Publishers, Inc., l993).

48 On the possibility of a democratic peace breaking out, the possible alteration of human nature, and the need for and prospect of human self-restraint see

Joshua Muravchik, “Democracy and Nuclear Peace,” a review essay presented before a US Institute of Peace sponsored conference, downloadable at http://www.npec-web.org/pages/syllabi.htm

Michael E. Brown et al, eds., Debating the Democratic Peace (Cambridge, MA: MIT, 1996).

Michael W. Doyle, "Liberalism and World Politics," American Political Science Review 80 no. 4 (December 1986).

Francis Fukuyama, et. al., “The End of History?” & “Responses to Fukuyama” The National Interest (Summer 1989).

Fred Charles Ikle, “The Deconstruction of Death: The Coming Politics of Biotechnology” The National Interest (Winter 2000).

Francis Fukuyama, The Great Disruption: Human Nature and the Reconstitution of Social Order (New York: Free Press, 1999).

Gordon Graham, Ethics and International Relations, (Cambridge: Blackwell, 1997).

John D. Jones, Marc F. Griesbach, eds., Just War Theory in the Nuclear Age (Lanham, MD : University Press of America, 1985).

49