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A Future Arms Control Agenda Proceedings of Nobel Symposium 118, 1999 Stockholm International Peace Research Institute A Future Arms Control Agenda Proceedings of Nobel Symposium 118, 1999 Stockholm International Peace Research Institute SIPRI is an independent international institute for research into problems of peace and conflict, especially those of arms control and disarmament. It was established in 1966 to commemorate Sweden’s 150 years of unbroken peace. The Institute is financed mainly by the Swedish Parliament. The staff and the Governing Board are international. The Institute also has an Advisory Committee as an international consultative body. The Governing Board is not responsible for the views expressed in the publications of the Institute. Governing Board Ambassador Rolf Ekéus, Chairman (Sweden) Dr Willem F. van Eekelen (Netherlands) Dr Nabil Elaraby (Egypt) Sir Marrack Goulding (United Kingdom) Professor Helga Haftendorn (Germany) Dr Catherine Kelleher (United States) Professor Ronald G. Sutherland (Canada) Dr Abdullah Toukan (Jordan) The Director Director Dr Adam Daniel Rotfeld (Poland) Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Signalistgatan 9, SE-169 70 Solna, Sweden Cable: SIPRI Telephone: 46 8/655 97 00 Telefax: 46 8/655 97 33 Email: [email protected] Internet URL: http://www.sipri.se A Future Arms Control Agenda Proceedings of Nobel Symposium 118, 1999 Edited by Ian Anthony and Adam Daniel Rotfeld OXFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS 2001 OXFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS Great Clarendon Street, Oxford OX2 6DP Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide in Oxford New York Athens Auckland Bangkok Bogotá Buenos Aires Cape Town Chennai Dar es Salaam Delhi Florence Hong Kong Istanbul Kolikata Karachi Kuala Lumpur Madrid Melbourne Mexico City Mumbai Nairobi Paris São Paulo Singapore Taipei Tokyo Toronto Warsaw and associated companies in Berlin Ibadan Oxford is a registered trade mark of Oxford University Press in the UK and certain other countries Published in the United States by Oxford University Press Inc., New York © SIPRI 2001 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of SIPRI or as expressly permitted by law, or under terms agreed with the appropriate reprographics rights organizations. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to SIPRI, Signalistgatan 9, SE-169 70 Solna, Sweden You must not circulate this book in any other binding or cover and you must impose the same condition on any acquirer British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Data available ISBN 0-19-924505-3 Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Data available ISBN 0-19-924505-3 Typeset and originated by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Printed and bound in Great Britain by Biddles Ltd., Guildford and King’s Lynn Contents Preface xiii Acronyms xv Introduction 1. The future of arms control and international security 3 Adam Daniel Rotfeld I. Introduction 3 II. Arms control: a new scope, new goals 4 Different approaches to arms control III. Current problems and new challenges 7 The central problems of arms control today—The challenges of the post-cold war period IV. From deterrence to regulation 10 V. New priorities 11 Part I. The security environment and arms control 2. Arms control: an endangered species in the new security environment? 17 Alyson J. K. Bailes I. Introduction 17 II. Four contemporary trends in arms control 18 III. Conclusion 20 3. A security strategy for the 21st century 22 William J. Perry I. Introduction 22 II. Prevention of war 23 III. Major crises and potential threats 25 IV. Conclusion 29 4. Observations on arms control in a new security environment 30 Anders Bjurner I. Introduction 30 II. Old and new challenges 30 III. Towards a comprehensive and global non-proliferation regime 32 IV. A new agenda 33 5. Objective and limits of arms control in the new security environment 36 Vladimir Baranovsky I. Introduction 36 II. The nuclear dimension 37 III. The regional dimension 40 IV. Moving towards international regulation 41 6. Good guys, bad guys and arms control 43 Richard N. Perle I. Introduction 43 II. The cold war period 44 vi A FUTURE ARMS CONTROL AGENDA III. The post-cold war period 46 Bilateral arms control—Multilateral arms control IV. The new role of arms control 49 Part II. The role of major powers 7. Major powers and arms control: a Russian perspective 55 Yuri K. Nazarkin I. Which states are ‘major powers’ today? 55 II. Assessments of arms control today 56 III. Non-proliferation 59 IV. Bilateral arms control 60 START III and the ABM Treaty V. Multilateral nuclear arms control 63 VI. Conclusion 64 8. Major powers and arms control: a US perspective 65 James E. Goodby I. Introduction 65 II. A stable peace and equilibrium 67 III. The present relevance of arms control 68 IV. The priority task of the major powers 69 V. Russian–US nuclear relations 70 VI. New nuclear problems in Asia 71 VII. Responding to the ‘new medievalism’ 73 VIII. Conclusion 74 9. Major powers and arms control: a Chinese perspective 75 Li Changhe I. Introduction 75 II. The arms control and security policies of great powers 75 III. The agenda ahead 77 IV. China’s approach 78 10. Major powers and arms control: a Japanese perspective 81 Hisashi Owada I. Introduction 81 II. Nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament 82 III. Response to the nuclear tests by India and Pakistan 84 IV. Regional issues of global implications 85 V. Conclusion 87 11. Towards a cooperative arms control regime 89 Sergey Rogov I. Introduction 89 The mutual deterrence paradigm—The system of strategic stability II. New challenges for arms control 91 Managing a polycentric world—New approaches—The Revolution in Military Affairs III. The last stage of mutual nuclear deterrence? 94 New parameters for the Russian–US arms control regime IV. Beyond arms control 99 CONTENTS vii Part III. Arms control in transition: in search of a new organizing principle 12. The future arms control agenda: escaping the prison of the past 103 Terence Taylor I. Introduction 103 II. Revival of arms control 103 III. The economic incentives and a verification challenge 105 IV. What kind of verification measures? 107 V. Conclusion 109 13. Transition from balance of power to a cooperative system 110 David Ivry I. Introduction 110 The cold war—The post-cold war period II. Voluntary cooperative arms control 112 III. Surface-to-surface missiles 113 IV. Proposals 114 V. Conclusion 115 14. Arms control in transition: building a new security order 116 Carlo Jean I. Introduction 116 II. A new geopolitical framework for arms control 116 III. Consolidation of arms control achievements during the cold war 118 IV. From ‘hard’ to ‘broad’ and from ‘confrontational’ to ‘cooperative’ 120 approaches to security V. Subregional versus regional arms control 122 VI. Conclusion 125 15. Structural and cultural challenges to arms control in intra-state and post- 127 conflict environments Keith Krause I. Introduction 127 II. The Western ‘arms control paradigm’ 129 III. Structural constraints on exporting arms control practices to post-conflict and 130 sub-state contexts ‘Winner takes all’ perceptions and the legacy of conflict—Inability to establish a stable deterrent—Inapplicability of ideas of balance or parity— Low political legitimacy makes confidence and security building impossible IV. Cross-cultural dimensions of new arms control challenges 133 Orientations towards regional and multilateral relations—Concepts of negotiation and diplomacy—Domestic political cultural norms—The place of violence and norms of conflict resolution V. Conclusion 137 16. Arms control as a conflict management tool 140 Nicole Ball I. Introduction 140 II. Characteristics of the security sector following civil wars 142 III. Peace agreements and the security sector 143 IV. Arms control in post-civil war environments 144 viii A F UTUR E AR MS C ONTR OL AGENDA 17. Arms control and peace settlements and the challenges of sub-state activities 150 Leonard T. Kapungu I. Introduction 150 II. Disarmament, demobilization and reintegration processes 150 III. Peace processes 151 IV. The failure of the peace terms 152 V. Some case studies 153 VI. Lessons learned 156 18. Transparency and verification: a Swedish perspective 158 Staffan Sohlman I. Introduction 158 II. The Wassenaar Arrangement 159 III. Conclusion 160 19. Arms export controls 161 Ian Anthony I. Introduction 161 II. The content and organization of export control discussions 163 The role of the United States III. Arms control and export control: convergence or divergence? 168 Part IV. Compliance with arms control commitments 20. Arms control in a world of cheating: transparency and non-compliance in the 173 post-cold war era Steven E. Miller I. Introduction 173 II. Will cheating happen? (or, the propensity to comply) 175 III. Can cheating be detected? (or, systems of verification) 177 IV. Is all cheating the same? (or, varieties of non-compliance) 181 V. Does cheating matter? (or, living with non-compliance) 183 VI. The end of the cold war and the limits of verification 186 21. Compliance or non-compliance with arms control and disarmament 190 Rolf Ekéus I. Introduction 190 II. Chemical weapons 191 III. Biological weapons 192 IV. Nuclear weapon proliferation 193 V. The obligations of the nuclear weapon states 195 VI. Delivery systems 196 VII. The UN Security Council and compliance 196 22. Transparency, verification and safeguards 199 Thérèse Delpech I. Introduction 199 II. Transparency in the post-cold war era 200 The political dimension: openness and resistance to it—The technical dimension: transparency and deception III. Transparency and verification: their complementarity 203 IV. Nuclear safeguards: the least imperfect tool? 205 V. Some priorities 206 VI. Conclusion 207 CONTENTS ix 23.
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