Urgent preliminary assessment of ornithological data relevant to spread of Avian Influenza in

Ward Hagemeijer Wetlands International

Commissioned by DG Environment to Wetlands International and Euring Data needs for risk assessment: ornithology (virology)

Quantified risk assessment: Research and Monitoring programme A. as a vector 1.Quantified migration information: satellite telemetry, ringing data analysis, count data analysis 2.Quantified frequency of occurrence of virus in wild birds: surveillance 3.Ecology of virus in wild birds: virological research on wild birds

B. Impact on wild bird populations Different components of the project

Activities to be undertaken:

• identification of Higher Risk Species (HRS) • analysis of their migration routes (ringing and count data) • identification of concentration and mixing sites • rapid assessment planning for wetland sites Analysis of higher risk species

Identification of HRS on basis of:

• occurence of LPAI viruses • ecology and behaviour • contact risk with poultry • numbers within EU

In collaboration with David Stroud and Rowena Langston Occurrence of LPAI in wild birds species

Results 1999 – 2004 Erasmus University Netherlands

Species N Tested N PCR+ (%) N Egg +

Mallard 6822 489 (7.2) 267 Eurasian 1470 22 (1.5) 4 Common Teal 670 18 (2.7) 4 135 4 (3.0) 1 Northern Shoveler 90 1 (1.1) 1 Shelduck, Eider, Gadwall, Tufted, Garganey 238 0 (0.0) 0

Greater White-fronted Goose 1696 19 (1.1) 5 Greylag Goose 303 8 (2.6) 4 Brent, Barnacle, Bean, Egyptian, Canada, Pink-f 1202 0 (0.0) 0

Black-headed Gull 993 10 (1.0) 6 Common, Herring, Black-backed, Kittiwake 1976 0 (0.0) 0

Guillemot 698 3 (0.4) 1

Other birds 10909 0 0 + + + 27204 574 (2.1) 295 Selection of taxonomic groups

• and Charadriiformes, • Migratory • Occurring in Europe. Codes for ecology and behaviour

Gregariousness Mixing Habitat use

Group size Group density

F fresh water L large H high H high A agricultural M medium M medium M medium N natural land S small L lowL low L littoral O solitary O zero O zero M marine S salinas Oother Selection of higher risk species

Common name Habitat Gregariousness Mixing

Mute Swan FA ML M Bean Goose FA LM H FA SL L Northern Lapwing FA MH M Eurasian Wigeon FAL LH H FAL MH H Black-tailed Godwit FAL MM H Gadwall F SM H Common Pochard F MH H Smew F MH L FM SM M Goosander FM MM L Grey Plover L MH H Eurasian Oystercatcher LFA LH H King Eider M SH L Greater Scaup MF LH H Higher risk species and species near-selected

Higher Risk Species (26) Species near-selected (14)

Common name Scientific name Common name Scientific name

Bewick's Swan Cygnus columbianus White-headed Duck Oxyura leucocephala Mute Swan Cygnus olor Ruddy Shelduck Tadorna ferruginea Pink-footed Goose Anser brachyrhnchus Gadwall Anas strepera Bean Goose Anser fabalis Greater Scaup Aythia marila Greater White-fronted Goose Anser albifrons albifrons Common Goldeneye Bucephala clangula Lesser White-fronted Goose Anser erythropus Smew Mergellus albellus Greylag Goose Anser anser Goosander Mergus merganser Barnacle Goose Branta leucopsis Eurasian Oystercatcher Haematopus Brent Goose Branta bernicla Eurasian Curlew Numenius arquata Red-breasted Goose Branta ruficollis Common Redshank Tringa totanus Eurasian Wigeon Anas penelope Lesser Black-backed gull Larus fuscus Common Teal Anas crecca Herring Gull Larus argentatus Mallard Anas platyrhynchos White-winged Tern Chidonias leucopterus Northern Pintail Anas acuta Black Tern Childonias niger Garganey Anas querquedula Northern Shoveler Anas clypeata Marbled Teal Marmaronetta angustirostris Red-crested Pochard Netta rufina Common Pochard ferina Aythya fuligula Northern Lapwing Vanellus vanellus Eurasian Golden Plover Pluvialis apricaria Black-tailed Godwit Limosa limosa Ruff Philomachus pugnax Black-headed Gull Larus ridibundus Common Gull Larus canus Contact risk with poultry in EU member states United Kingdom Ireland Portugal Republic Czech Slovenia Austria Germany Netherlands Estonia Mean

Bewicks Swan 0 L 0 0 0 0 M M L Mute Swan LM0HHHHHMM Pink-footed Goose 0 0 0 L M 0 L Bean Goose L 0LMLLMML G. White-fronted Goose L LMLLMHM L. White-fronted Goose 0 0 0 0 L L L 0 O Greylag Goose MMMLMMLHMM Barnacle goose 0 0 L 0 0 L L M M L Brent Goose 0 L 0 0 0 L M 0 L Red-breasted Goose 0 0 L L L 0 L Eurasian Wigeon H H M 0 L L L M H M Common Teal LMHLMMLLLM Mallard MHHHHHHHHH Northern Pintail L M M 0 L L L L M L

Risk score: 0 = virtually zero, L = low, M = medium, H = high Contact risk and numbers in EU

Common name Scientific name Contact Risk* Numbers EU**

Bewick's Swan Cygnus columbianus L 29.000 Mute Swan Cygnus olor M 297.500 Pink-footed Goose Anser brachyrhnchus L 277.000 Bean Goose Anser fabalis L 700.000 Greater White-fronted Goose Anser albifrons albifrons M 1.000.000 Lesser White-fronted Goose Anser erythropus O 8.000-10.000 Greylag Goose Anser anser M 522.100 Barnacle Goose Branta leucopsis L 437.100 Brent Goose Branta bernicla L 240.000 Red-breasted Goose Branta ruficollis L 88.000 Eurasian Wigeon Anas penelope M 1.800.000 Common Teal Anas crecca M 1.150.000-1.775.000 Mallard Anas platyrhynchos H 7.500.000 Northern Pintail Anas acuta L 1.060.000 Garganey Anas querquedula L 2.000.000-3.000.000 Northern Shoveler Anas clypeata L 490.000 Marbled Teal Marmaronetta angustirostris O 3.000-5.000 Red-crested Pochard Netta rufina L 70.000-93.500 Common Pochard Aythya ferina L 1.450.000 Tufted Duck Aythya fuligula L 1.900.000 Northern Lapwing Vanellus vanellus M 2.800.000-4.000.000 Eurasian Golden Plover Pluvialis apricaria L 1.644.000-1.953.000 Black-tailed Godwit Limosa limosa L 267.000-391.000 Ruff Philomachus pugnax L >1.000.000 Black-headed Gull Larus ridibundus H 6.900.000-9.000.000 Common Gull Larus canus L 1.400.000-3.100.000

* based on data from nine EU member countries ** non-breeding population (bio-geographical population, Wetlands international 2002) Overview of risk factors and H5N1

Common name Ecology Contact Risk Abundance

Bewick's Swan XXX XX X Mute Swan XXX X X Pink-footed Goose XXXX XX X Bean Goose XXX XX X Greater White-fronted Goose XXXX XXX X Lesser White-fronted Goose XXXX X X Greylag Goose XXXX XXX X Barnacle Goose XXXX XX X Brent Goose XXXX XX X Red-breasted Goose XXX XX X Eurasian Wigeon XXXX XXX XX Common Teal XXXX XXX XX Mallard XXXX XXXX XXXXXXXX Northern Pintail XXXX XX X Garganey XXX XX XXX Northern Shoveler XXX XX X Marbled Teal XXX X X Red-crested Pochard XX XX X Common Pochard XXX XX X Tufted Duck XXX XX XX Northern Lapwing XXX XXX XXX Eurasian Golden Plover XXX XX XX Black-tailed Godwit XXXX XX X Ruff XXXX XX X Black-headed Gull XXX XXXX XXXXXXXX Higher risk species related to migration route

Common name Black Sea Nigeria S. Urals Bewick's Swan Mute Swan X Pink-footed Goose Bean Goose Greater White-fronted Goose X Lesser White-fronted Goose Greylag Goose X Barnacle Goose Brent Goose Red-breasted Goose X Eurasian Wigeon X X Common Teal X X Mallard X Northern Pintail X X Garganey X X Northern Shoveler X X Marbled Teal Red-crested Pochard X Common Pochard X X Tufted Duck X X Northern Lapwing X Eurasian Golden Plover Black-tailed Godwit X Ruff X Black-headed Gull X X Common Gull Ringing data to be provided

Data on migration routes of higher risk species

• maps giving an overview of the distribution of recoveries • compilation of published information • indication of species with important gaps of knowledge Anas penelope All Anas penelope January Anas penelope June WIGEON Anas penelope Movements of Wigeon Identifying migratory movements

WhiteWhite--frontedfronted GooseGoose exhibitexhibit fourfour distinctdistinct movementmovement typestypes The timing of migration WeWe fitfit aa smoothedsmoothed curvecurve toto showshow timingtiming ofof movementsmovements Site data to be provided

Concentration and mixing sites

• Concentration sites in Europe, Africa, SW & Central Asia for waterbirds and HRS • Mixing sites for HRS in Europe, Africa, SW & Central Asia • Numbers and distribution of HRS in EU member states

Contents of draft format

Rapid assessment planning format

• general description • description of topography, habitats and hydrology • occurence of vulnerable bird species • places where these birds concentrate • local movements of birds • position in flyway and direction of migration • human use of site (disturbance) • existence of poultry farms within 10 km of site • measures to be considered in case of an outbreak • data sources Foraging areas of Barnacle Geese Management measures in case of an outbreak

Measures to be considered:

• monitoring bird mortality • sampling wild birds • restrictions with respect to human activities - closing parts of island - ban on feeding birds in village (gulls) - covering refuse dump (gulls) - closing children’s farm - ban on hunting -etc. Using waterbird data at the site scale

Density of waterbirds at the Eastern Sivash in all seasons

Source: Wetlands International Kiev, Ukraine Sergei Khomenko Predicted risk

Density of waterbirds at the Eastern Sivash in all seasons

Waterbird density Proximity to waterbody Human population density

Estimated outbreak risk and actual outbreaks of H5N1 HPAI in the Eastern Sivash in early 2006 Àfter: Wetlands International, Kiev, S. Khomenko Future research

Additional information needed:

• analysis of HRS among other taxonomic groups, resident species, bridge species • detailed analysis of ringing data • compiling better overview of key staging sites used in spring and autumn • including spring and autumn counts in IWC programme Future research recommendations

• Reviewing HRS analysis in light of changed situation, including short- distance intra-European, Asian and African migrants and also to other taxonomic groups. • Expand IWC count to include data for Spring and Autum and integrate with IBA monitoring • Establish a system for mortality monitoring and assessing ‘normal mortality’. • Refining analysis of ringing data to move from generalised patterns to more precise migration routes. • Contact between flyways • Strategies for long-distance migration are poorly understood for many wildfowl species. • Analysis of "contact risk with poultry" for "bridge species". • In relation to trans-European migrants, we know very little about European-Afrotropical migration systems: increase count coverage, ringing effort, satellite telemetry • Use novel techniques to better understand . (Satellite telemetry, stable isotopes, trace element analysis) • Deviation from general patterns Download report

The report is available for download from: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/nature/nature_conservation/focus_wild_birds/avian_influenza/index_en.htm

http://ec.europa.eu/ environment/nature/nature_conservation/ focus_wild_birds/avian_influenza/index_en.htm

More info about AI, and also a link to the above site for download: www.wetlands.org www.euring.org Download report

The report is available for download from: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/nature/nature_conservation/focus_wild_birds/avian_influenza/index_en.htm

http://ec.europa.eu/ ORG ING. .EUR environment/nature/nature_conservation/WWW focus_wild_birds/avian_influenza/index_en.htm

More info about AI, and also a link to the above site for download: www.wetlands.org www.euring.org Wetlands International

RG DS.O LAN .WET WWW Species information available from DG Env project by Wetlands International and EURING Red-breasted Goose

Country Sitename Year Count Type Ref.

Azerbaijan Caspian Coast: Gyzylagach Nature Reserve 340 J 17

Bulgaria Shabla Lake Complex 1993 55845 J 17

Bulgaria Durankulak Lake Complex 2000 17733 J 17

Bulgaria Mandra Lake 1997 16860 J 17

Bulgaria Danube: Tutrakan-Silistra Toutrakan - Silistra 1998 1734 J 17

Bulgaria Burgas Lake (Vaya) 1997 860 J 17

Bulgaria Tzerkovski Tserkovski Reservoir 1997 450 J 17

Bulgaria Atanasovo Lake Complex 1997 380 J 17

Bulgaria Danube: Other Sites 1996 77 J 17

Bulgaria Black Sea Coast: Tulenevo 1993 71 J 17

Bulgaria Black Sea Coast: Kaliakra-Kamen Brjag Bryag -Tulenovo Tyulenovo 1998 59 J 17

Bulgaria Black Sea Coast: Kavarna-Balchik-Kranevo 1999 48 J 17

Bulgaria Tzonevo Reservoir 1997 14 J 17

Bulgaria Piasachnik Reservoir 1997 12 J 17

Bulgaria Black Sea Coast: Kraimorie-Tchernomoretz Kraymorie-Chernomorets 1997 10 J 17

Greece Evros Delta 1997 750 J 17

Greece Kerkini 1997 18 J 17

Hungary Szabadszallas Szikes To = Kisret. Zabszek Knp 2000 33 J 17

Hungary Dinnyes Ferto 2000 25 J 17

Hungary Fulupszallas Szikes To = Kelemenszek Knp 2000 23 J 17

Hungary Geszt. Begecsi Halastavak 2001 12 J 17

Iran Gavekhoni Marsh 1994 750 J 17

Iran Tajan River And Sarrakakhs Fishpond: Tajan River 1997 130 J 17

Iran Dasht-E-Moseian 1997 91 J 17 Iran River Dowereg 2003 10 J 17 SpeciesKazakhstan informationKulykol Lake, Kustanay reg. available from DG1999 Env 19600 project S 16 by Kazakhstan WetlandsKoybagar & Tyuntyugur International Lakes, Kustanay reg. and EURING1999 13800 S 16 Kazakhstan Small lakes west of Kurgaljin NR 1999 7600 S 16

Kazakhstan Ayke Lake, Kustanay reg. 1999 6100 S 16

Red-breastedKazakhstan Batpakkol Goose Lake, Kustanay reg. 1999 1500 S 16

Romania Techirghiol 1999 10000 J 17

Romania Delta Dunarii (Danube Delta) 1993 8349 J 17

Romania Lake Razelm 1992 8300 J 17

Romania Lake Sinoe (= Sinoie) 1992 2000 J 17

Romania Lakes Nuntasi And Tuzla 1999 620 J 17

Romania Razelm Ne 1994 600 J 17

Romania Lake Sinoe South 1991 300 J 17

Romania Razelm Nw 1999 300 J 17

Romania Lake Strachina 1999 188 J 17

Romania Leahova-Periteasca 1999 150 J 17

Romania Lake Murighiol 1994 85 J 17

Romania Babita (Babina) 1999 30 J 17

Romania Mahmudia 1999 30 J 17

Romania Tasaul 1999 18 J 17

Romania Golovita (Bisericuta-Gr. Lupilor) 1992 10 J 17

Russia Taymyr, Gydan and Yamal Peninsulas: entire world population 60000 B 37

Russia Lake Manych-Gudilo 2003 7000 J 17

Turkmenistan Amudarya Valley: Kerki-Karabekaul 1991 48 J 17

Ukraine M. Sivash 2000 13500 J 17

Ukraine Dniestrovskiy Liman 2001 12000 J 17

Ukraine Dzansheisky. Shagany; Alibey; Burnas Limans 1998 7000 J 17

Ukraine Sasyk Liman + Adjacent Sea Area 1995 2000 J 17

Ukraine Budaksky + Gribovsky Limans 1998 1500 J 17

Ukraine Lake Kitai 1995 1000 J 17

Ukraine Stencovskie Plavny 1999 815 J 17

Ukraine E. Sivash 2000 630 J 17

Ukraine Lakes Kagul Kugurlui And Ialpug 1998 150 J 17 Species information available from DG Env project by Wetlands International and EURING Red-breasted Goose Species information available from DG Env project by Wetlands International and EURING Red-breasted Goose

• Figure 2.17: Map depicting the movements of Red-breasted Goose Branta ruficollis based on published information and ring recoveries in the EURING Data Bank. Overview of risk factors and H5N1

Common name Ecology Contact Risk Abundance

Bewick's Swan XXX XX X Mute Swan XXX X X Pink-footed Goose XXXX XX X Bean Goose XXX XX X Greater White-fronted Goose XXXX XXX X Lesser White-fronted Goose XXXX X X Greylag Goose XXXX XXX X Barnacle Goose XXXX XX X Brent Goose XXXX XX X Red-breasted Goose XXX XX X Eurasian Wigeon XXXX XXX XX Common Teal XXXX XXX XX Mallard XXXX XXXX XXXXXXXX Northern Pintail XXXX XX X Garganey XXX XX XXX Northern Shoveler XXX XX X Marbled Teal XXX X X Red-crested Pochard XX XX X Common Pochard XXX XX X Tufted Duck XXX XX XX Northern Lapwing XXX XXX XXX Eurasian Golden Plover XXX XX XX Black-tailed Godwit XXXX XX X Ruff XXXX XX X Black-headed Gull XXX XXXX XXXXXXXX Overview of risk factors and H5N1

Common name Ecology Contact Risk Abundance H5N1

Bewick's Swan XXX XX X Mute Swan XXX X X X Pink-footed Goose XXXXXX X Bean Goose XXX XX X Greater White-fronted Goose XXXX XXX X X Lesser White-fronted Goose XXXX X X Greylag Goose XXXXXXX X X Barnacle Goose XXXXXX X X Brent Goose XXXXXX X Red-breasted Goose XXX XX X X Eurasian Wigeon XXXXXXX XX Common Teal XXXXXXX XX X Mallard XXXX XXXX XXXXXXXX X Northern Pintail XXXXXX X X Garganey XXX XX XXX X Northern Shoveler XXX XX X X Marbled Teal XXX X X Red-crested Pochard XX XX X Common Pochard XXX XX X X Tufted Duck XXX XX XX X Northern Lapwing XXX XXX XXX Eurasian Golden Plover XXX XX XX Black-tailed Godwit XXXX XX X Ruff XXXX XX X Black-headed Gull XXX XXXX XXXXXXXX X Proportion of species H5N1 infected

group of species number H5N1 infected* number percent higher risk species 26 13 50% near-selected HRS 14 5 36% other species 70 3 4% Total 110 21 19%

* date 30 March 2006