Urgent preliminary assessment of ornithological data relevant to spread of Avian Influenza in Europe Ward Hagemeijer Wetlands International Commissioned by DG Environment to Wetlands International and Euring Data needs for risk assessment: ornithology (virology) Quantified risk assessment: Research and Monitoring programme A. Birds as a vector 1.Quantified bird migration information: satellite telemetry, ringing data analysis, count data analysis 2.Quantified frequency of occurrence of virus in wild birds: surveillance 3.Ecology of virus in wild birds: virological research on wild birds B. Impact on wild bird populations Different components of the project Activities to be undertaken: • identification of Higher Risk Species (HRS) • analysis of their migration routes (ringing and count data) • identification of concentration and mixing sites • rapid assessment planning for wetland sites Analysis of higher risk species Identification of HRS on basis of: • occurence of LPAI viruses • ecology and behaviour • contact risk with poultry • numbers within EU In collaboration with David Stroud and Rowena Langston Occurrence of LPAI in wild birds species Results 1999 – 2004 Erasmus University Netherlands Species N Tested N PCR+ (%) N Egg + Mallard 6822 489 (7.2) 267 Eurasian Wigeon 1470 22 (1.5) 4 Common Teal 670 18 (2.7) 4 Northern Pintail 135 4 (3.0) 1 Northern Shoveler 90 1 (1.1) 1 Shelduck, Eider, Gadwall, Tufted, Garganey 238 0 (0.0) 0 Greater White-fronted Goose 1696 19 (1.1) 5 Greylag Goose 303 8 (2.6) 4 Brent, Barnacle, Bean, Egyptian, Canada, Pink-f 1202 0 (0.0) 0 Black-headed Gull 993 10 (1.0) 6 Common, Herring, Black-backed, Kittiwake 1976 0 (0.0) 0 Guillemot 698 3 (0.4) 1 Other birds 10909 0 0 + + + 27204 574 (2.1) 295 Selection of taxonomic groups • Anseriformes and Charadriiformes, • Migratory • Occurring in Europe. Codes for ecology and behaviour Habitat use Gregariousness Mixing Group size Group density F fresh water L large H high H high A agricultural M medium M medium M medium N natural land S small L low L low L littoral O solitary O zero O zero M marine S salinas Oother Selection of higher risk species Common name Habitat Gregariousness Mixing Mute Swan FA ML M Bean Goose FA LM H Common Snipe FA SL L Northern Lapwing FA MH M Eurasian Wigeon FAL LH H Mallard FAL MH H Black-tailed Godwit FAL MM H Gadwall F SM H Common Pochard F MH H Smew F MH L Common Goldeneye FM SM M Goosander FM MM L Grey Plover L MH H Eurasian Oystercatcher LFA LH H King Eider M SH L Greater Scaup MF LH H Higher risk species and species near-selected Higher Risk Species (26) Species near-selected (14) Common name Scientific name Common name Scientific name Bewick's Swan Cygnus columbianus White-headed Duck Oxyura leucocephala Mute Swan Cygnus olor Ruddy Shelduck Tadorna ferruginea Pink-footed Goose Anser brachyrhnchus Gadwall Anas strepera Bean Goose Anser fabalis Greater Scaup Aythia marila Greater White-fronted Goose Anser albifrons albifrons Common Goldeneye Bucephala clangula Lesser White-fronted Goose Anser erythropus Smew Mergellus albellus Greylag Goose Anser anser Goosander Mergus merganser Barnacle Goose Branta leucopsis Eurasian Oystercatcher Haematopus Brent Goose Branta bernicla Eurasian Curlew Numenius arquata Red-breasted Goose Branta ruficollis Common Redshank Tringa totanus Eurasian Wigeon Anas penelope Lesser Black-backed gull Larus fuscus Common Teal Anas crecca Herring Gull Larus argentatus Mallard Anas platyrhynchos White-winged Tern Chidonias leucopterus Northern Pintail Anas acuta Black Tern Childonias niger Garganey Anas querquedula Northern Shoveler Anas clypeata Marbled Teal Marmaronetta angustirostris Red-crested Pochard Netta rufina Common Pochard Aythya ferina Tufted Duck Aythya fuligula Northern Lapwing Vanellus vanellus Eurasian Golden Plover Pluvialis apricaria Black-tailed Godwit Limosa limosa Ruff Philomachus pugnax Black-headed Gull Larus ridibundus Common Gull Larus canus Contact risk with poultry in EU member states United Kingdom Ireland Portugal Republic Czech Slovenia Austria Germany Netherlands Estonia Mean Bewicks Swan 0 L 0 0 0 0 M M L Mute Swan LM0HHHHHMM Pink-footed Goose 0 0 0 L M 0 L Bean Goose L 0LMLLMML G. White-fronted Goose L LMLLMHM L. White-fronted Goose 0 0 0 0 L L L 0 O Greylag Goose MMMLMMLHMM Barnacle goose 0 0 L 0 0 L L M M L Brent Goose 0 L 0 0 0 L M 0 L Red-breasted Goose 0 0 L L L 0 L Eurasian Wigeon H H M 0 L L L M H M Common Teal LMHLMMLLLM Mallard MHHHHHHHHH Northern Pintail L M M 0 L L L L M L Risk score: 0 = virtually zero, L = low, M = medium, H = high Contact risk and numbers in EU Common name Scientific name Contact Risk* Numbers EU** Bewick's Swan Cygnus columbianus L 29.000 Mute Swan Cygnus olor M 297.500 Pink-footed Goose Anser brachyrhnchus L 277.000 Bean Goose Anser fabalis L 700.000 Greater White-fronted Goose Anser albifrons albifrons M 1.000.000 Lesser White-fronted Goose Anser erythropus O 8.000-10.000 Greylag Goose Anser anser M 522.100 Barnacle Goose Branta leucopsis L 437.100 Brent Goose Branta bernicla L 240.000 Red-breasted Goose Branta ruficollis L 88.000 Eurasian Wigeon Anas penelope M 1.800.000 Common Teal Anas crecca M 1.150.000-1.775.000 Mallard Anas platyrhynchos H 7.500.000 Northern Pintail Anas acuta L 1.060.000 Garganey Anas querquedula L 2.000.000-3.000.000 Northern Shoveler Anas clypeata L 490.000 Marbled Teal Marmaronetta angustirostris O 3.000-5.000 Red-crested Pochard Netta rufina L 70.000-93.500 Common Pochard Aythya ferina L 1.450.000 Tufted Duck Aythya fuligula L 1.900.000 Northern Lapwing Vanellus vanellus M 2.800.000-4.000.000 Eurasian Golden Plover Pluvialis apricaria L 1.644.000-1.953.000 Black-tailed Godwit Limosa limosa L 267.000-391.000 Ruff Philomachus pugnax L >1.000.000 Black-headed Gull Larus ridibundus H 6.900.000-9.000.000 Common Gull Larus canus L 1.400.000-3.100.000 * based on data from nine EU member countries ** non-breeding population (bio-geographical population, Wetlands international 2002) Overview of risk factors and H5N1 Common name Ecology Contact Risk Abundance Bewick's Swan XXX XX X Mute Swan XXX X X Pink-footed Goose XXXX XX X Bean Goose XXX XX X Greater White-fronted Goose XXXX XXX X Lesser White-fronted Goose XXXX X X Greylag Goose XXXX XXX X Barnacle Goose XXXX XX X Brent Goose XXXX XX X Red-breasted Goose XXX XX X Eurasian Wigeon XXXX XXX XX Common Teal XXXX XXX XX Mallard XXXX XXXX XXXXXXXX Northern Pintail XXXX XX X Garganey XXX XX XXX Northern Shoveler XXX XX X Marbled Teal XXX X X Red-crested Pochard XX XX X Common Pochard XXX XX X Tufted Duck XXX XX XX Northern Lapwing XXX XXX XXX Eurasian Golden Plover XXX XX XX Black-tailed Godwit XXXX XX X Ruff XXXX XX X Black-headed Gull XXX XXXX XXXXXXXX Higher risk species related to migration route Common name Black Sea Nigeria S. Urals Bewick's Swan Mute Swan X Pink-footed Goose Bean Goose Greater White-fronted Goose X Lesser White-fronted Goose Greylag Goose X Barnacle Goose Brent Goose Red-breasted Goose X Eurasian Wigeon X X Common Teal X X Mallard X Northern Pintail X X Garganey X X Northern Shoveler X X Marbled Teal Red-crested Pochard X Common Pochard X X Tufted Duck X X Northern Lapwing X Eurasian Golden Plover Black-tailed Godwit X Ruff X Black-headed Gull X X Common Gull Ringing data to be provided Data on migration routes of higher risk species • maps giving an overview of the distribution of recoveries • compilation of published information • indication of species with important gaps of knowledge Anas penelope All Anas penelope January Anas penelope June WIGEON Anas penelope Movements of Wigeon Identifying migratory movements WhiteWhite--frontedfronted GooseGoose exhibitexhibit fourfour distinctdistinct movementmovement typestypes The timing of migration WeWe fitfit aa smoothedsmoothed curvecurve toto showshow timingtiming ofof movementsmovements Site data to be provided Concentration and mixing sites • Concentration sites in Europe, Africa, SW & Central Asia for waterbirds and HRS • Mixing sites for HRS in Europe, Africa, SW & Central Asia • Numbers and distribution of HRS in EU member states Contents of draft format Rapid assessment planning format • general description • description of topography, habitats and hydrology • occurence of vulnerable bird species • places where these birds concentrate • local movements of birds • position in flyway and direction of migration • human use of site (disturbance) • existence of poultry farms within 10 km of site • measures to be considered in case of an outbreak • data sources Foraging areas of Barnacle Geese Management measures in case of an outbreak Measures to be considered: • monitoring bird mortality • sampling wild birds • restrictions with respect to human activities - closing parts of island - ban on feeding birds in village (gulls) - covering refuse dump (gulls) - closing children’s farm - ban on hunting -etc. Using waterbird data at the site scale Density of waterbirds at the Eastern Sivash in all seasons Source: Wetlands International Kiev, Ukraine Sergei Khomenko Predicted risk Density of waterbirds at the Eastern Sivash in all seasons Waterbird density Proximity to waterbody Human population density Estimated outbreak risk and actual outbreaks of H5N1 HPAI in the Eastern Sivash in early 2006 Àfter: Wetlands International, Kiev, S. Khomenko Future research Additional information needed: • analysis of HRS among other taxonomic groups, resident species, bridge species • detailed analysis of ringing data • compiling better overview of key staging sites used in spring and autumn • including spring and autumn counts in IWC programme Future research recommendations • Reviewing HRS analysis in light of changed situation, including short- distance intra-European, Asian and African migrants and also to other taxonomic groups.