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Notes and References Notes and References 1 The Future: a Search for Values t Loren Eiseley, The Firmament of Time (New York: Atheneum Publishers, 1962) p. 117. 1. Giscard d'Estaing, quoted by Richard Lamm, Governor of Colorado in 'Promoting Finitude', The Amicus Journal (Summer 1980) p. 7. 2. R.P. Turco, O.B. Toon, T.P. Ackerman, J.B. Pollack and C. Sagan, 'Global Atmospheric Consequences of Nuclear War', Science, 222 {1983) pp. 1283- 92; P.R. Ehrlich, M.A. Harwell, P.H. Raven, C. Sagan, G.M. Woodwell et al., 'The Long-Term Biological Consequences of Nuclear War', Science, 222 (1983) pp. 1293-1300; C. Sagan, 'Nuclear War and Climatic Catastrophe: Some Policy Implications', Foreign Affairs (Winter 1984) pp. 257-92. In late 1983, the United States Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) released a report arguing that agriculture would 'emerge in relatively good shape' after a major nuclear war; the report received scathing ridicule (see Science, 222 {1983) p. 1308). 3. J. Schell, The Fate of the Earth (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 1982). 4. W. Alvarez, E.G. Kauffman, R. Surlyk, L.W. Alvarez, F. Asaro and H.V. Michel, 'Impact Theory of Mass Extinctions and the Invertebrate Fossil Record', Science, 223 {1984) pp. 1135-41; D.A. Russell, 'The Mass Extinc­ tions of the Late Mesozoic', Scientific American (January 1982) pp. 58-65. 5. Turco et al., 'Global Atmospheric Consequences'. 6. Ehrlich eta/., 'The Long-Term Biological Consequences', p. 1299. 7. Sagan, 'Nuclear War', p.264f. 8. For a recent update on the scientific consensus on nuclear winter see M.A. Harwell and C.C. Harwell, 'Updating the "nuclear winter" debate', Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (October 1987) pp. 42-4. Forty scientists from around the world conclude that four-fifths of the world's population might well starve after a major nuclear war. 9. C. Zraket, quoted by R.J. Smith, 'Nuclear Winter Attracts Additional Scrutiny', Science, 225 {1984) p. 32. 10. D.H. Meadows, D.L. Meadows, J. Randers and W.W. Behrens, III, The Limits to Growth (New York: Universe Books, 1972). 11. Meadows et al., The Limits to Growth, p. 169. 12. H.S. Cole, C. Freeman, M. Jahoda and K.L.R. Pavitt {eds), Models of Doom (New York: Universe Books, 1973). 13. The Global 2000 Report to the President, Vol.1, Entering the Twenty-First Century (Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office, 1980) p. iii. See also, Vol. 2, The Technical Report; Vol. 3, Documentation on the Govern­ ment's Global Sectoral Models: The Government's 'Global Model' and Global Future: Time to Act {1981). 14. The Global 2000 Report, Vol. 1, p. iii. 15. The Global 2000 Report, Vol. 1, pp. 3-5. 16. J. Simon, 'Resources, Population, Environment: An Oversupply of False Bad News', Science, 208 (1980) pp. 1431-37; quote is from p. 1434. 17. J. Simon, The Ultimate Resource (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1981 ). 18. J. Simon, The Ultimate Resource, p. 27. 507 508 Notes and References 19. J. Simon, The Ultimate Resource, p. 90. 20. For a good example of this kind of argument, see H.J. Barnett, G.M. van Muiswinkel, M. Shechter and J.G. Myers, 'Global Trends in Non-Fuel Minerals', Chapter 11 in J. Simon and H. Kahn (eds), The Resourceful Earth: A Response to Global2000 (New York: Basil Blackwell, 1984) pp. 316-38. 21. H.J. Barnett and C. Morse, Scarcity and Growth: The Economics of Natural Resource Availability (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press, 1963) pp. 11-12; sentences quoted are slightly out of sequence. 22. L.R. Brown, State of the World: 1984; A Worldwatch Institute Report on Progress Toward a Sustainable Society (New York: W.W. Norton, 1984); each year new editions appear, researching different global topics. 23. E. Hyams, Soil and Civilization (New York: Harper and Row, 1976 (© 1952)) p. 16. 24. P. Siekevitz, 'Not Every Problem Can Be Solved with a Technological Fix', The Sciences, 18 (February 1978) pp. 29-30. 25. M.E. Clark and L. Holler, 'Teaching Science within the Limits of Science', Journal of College Science Teaching (September-October 1986) pp. 8-9, 56-7. 26. M. Polanyi, Personal Knowledge: Towards a Post-Critical Philosophy (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1962) pp. 134ff. 27. P. Alpert, 'The Boulder and the Sphere', unpublished essay (1981); Dr Alpert is Assistant Professor of Biology in the Department of Botany at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst. 28. T. Kuhn, The Nature of Scientific Revolutions, 2nd edn (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1970). 2 Energy and Exponentials t Henry Adams, A Letter to American Teachers of History (privately published by the author, 1910) pp. 131, 155. 1. For a discussion of the multiple environmental consequences that may result from the building of very large dams, see C. Sterling 'The Aswan Disaster', Environmental Journal, National Parks and Conservation Magazine, 45 (1971) pp. 10-13; numerous articles in M.T. Farvar and J. Milton (eds), The Careless Technology (Garden City, NY: Natural History Press, 1972); and D. Deudney, 'Hydropower: An Old Technology for a New Era', Environ­ ment (September 1981) pp. 17-20, 37-45. 2. R. Stobaugh and D. Yergin (eds), Energy Future: Report of the Energy Project at the Harvard Business School (New York: Random House, 1979) p.232. 3. E. Teller, Energy from Heaven and Earth (San Francisco: W.H. Freeman, 1979) pp. 292-3. 4. B. Russell, quoted in S.M. Blinder, Advanced Physical Chemistry (London: Macmillan, 1969) p. 300. 5. W.L. Thomas, Jr (ed.), Man's Role in Changing the Face of the Earth, vol. 1, (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1956). See p. 188f for Europe, p. 416f for China. This book and its companion vol. 2 are among the most comprehensive and fascinating accounts of the role humans have played from prehistory to the present in altering ecosystems, communities of organisms and even climate, by assorted conscious and unconscious manipu­ lations. It is drawn on further in Chapters 3 and 4. 6. A.A. Bartlett, 'Forgotten Fundamentals of the Energy Crisis', American Journal of Physics, 46 (1978) pp. 876-88. A central article for this chapter. Notes and References 509 7. Bartlett, 'Forgotten Fundamentals', p. 876. 8. Thomas, Man's Role, p. 200. 9. See S. Goodwin, 'Hubbert's curve', Country Journal (November 1980) pp. 56-60, for an account of the history of Hubbert's predictions. Hubbert's data are available as follows: M. King Hubbert, Chapter 8 in Resources and Man, issued by the National Academy of Science and the National Research Council (San Francisco: W.H. Freeman, 1969); Energy Resources of the Earth (San Francisco: W.H. Freeman, 1971); A National Fuels and Energy Policy Study, Serial93-40 (92-75) Part I (Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office, 1973). 10. W. Ophuls, Ecology and the Politics of Scarcity (San Francisco: W.H. Freeman, 1977) pp. 88ff. Ophuls outlines the environmental perils and costs of going after low-grade fossil fuels. For recent estimates of US oil reserves, see Science, 226 (1984) p. 426, and Science, 228 (1985) p. 974. Amounts remaining to be found will last 10-15 years at present rates of consumption. 11. Bartlett, 'Forgotten Fundamentals', quotes on p. 881 from ERDA (Energy Research and Development Agency) report of 1975 and 1976: 'Coal reserves far exceed supplies of oil and gas, and yet coal supplies only 18% of our total energy. To maintain even this contribution we will need to increase coal production by 70% by 1985, but the real goal, to increase coal's share of the energy market will require a staggering growth rate'. 12. L.R. Brown, State of the World, 1984 (New York: W.W. Norton, 1984) p. 36. 13. D.L. Meadows, W.W. Behrens, III, D.H. Meadows, R.F. Naill, J. Randers and E.K.O. Zahn, The Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World (Cambridge, MA: Wright-Allen, 1974). See also Figure5.1. 14. H. Kahn, W. Brown and L. Martel, The Next 200 Years (New York: Morrow, 1976) p. 101 f. 15. From the entropy of mixing, defined by the Second Law of Thermodyna­ mics, we know that the minimal energy required to separate a mole of pure substance is inversely proportional to the natural logarithm of its mole fraction in the mixture. 16. C.A.S. Hall and C.J. Cleveland, 'Petroleum Drilling and Production in the United States: Yield Per Effort and Net Energy Analysis', Science, 211 (1981) pp. 576-9. The same may be true for natural gas- see C.B. Hatfield, Science, 219 (1983) p. 10, and J. Cason, Science, 220 (1983) p. 359. 17. For use of steam to express oil see P.R. Riva, Jr, World Petroleum Resources and Reserves (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1983) pp. 89-109. Up to 35 per cent of the energy recovered may have been expended in generating the steam to force it out of the ground. For use of compressed (supercritical) C02 to express oil, see P.H. Abelson, 'Oil Recovery with Supercritical C02', Science, 221 (1983) p. 815. 18. R.H. Romer, Energy -An Introduction to Physics (San Francisco: W.H. Freeman, 1976) p. 5. A readable text for anyone who wishes to grasp the meaning of energy and work. 19. R.L. Sivard, World Energy Survey (Leesburg, VA: World Priorities, 1981) p. 5. A massive amount of information from diverse sources has been put into easily understandable graphs, charts and tables. 20. Compare Table 14.1, p. 292, in Teller, Energy, with Table 8.1, p. 232, in Stobaugh and Yergin, Energy Future. Although Teller favours nuclear energy while the Harvard group pushes eventually for more conservation and more solar and other renewable resources, their short-term predictions about the mix of energy resources and of energy consumption in the United States are almost identical.
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