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Potato Blight in Europe in 1846 ______41 Chapter 7 Summary of Conclusions 49 THE SPREAD OF POTATO BLIGHT IN EUROPE IN 1845-6 AND THE ACCOMPANYING WIND AND WEATHER PAI"IERNS Austin Bourke and Hubert Lamb ,:;:" ... ~'", '~ .. 9 Published in 1993 by the Meteorological Service: Glasnevin Hill. Dublin 9 By kind permission of the Commission of the European Communities Copyright © the authors 1993 All rights reserved Cover: Famine Funeral at Skibbereen ( from Illustrated London News. January 30. 1847) (archives of the National library) and picture of blighted potato foliage on background synoptic map ofJuly 31. 1846 (see Fig. 10). Famine letter on page 12: Original letter from 1847 reproduce:d in an article by R. McKay. late Professor of Plant Pathology. UeD. as published in Department of Agriculture Journal 1953-54 Text layout and design by Tom Keane. Meteorological Service: ISBN 0 9521232 0 7 PREFACE The first R&D programme in the field of climatology. which was adopted by the Council of the European Communities in ) 979. led to the promotion of 5) international research projects in different aspects of -- understanding climate and of man-climate interactions. Under the terms of Contract CLI 065 UK(H). Professor H.H. Lamb (Norwich) and Dr Austin Bourke (Dublin) undertook a study of the biorneteorological background to the historic epidemic of potato blight which raged in Western Europe in the years) 845-6 and which culminated in the great Irish famine. Apart from its historical interest. the study has implications for the present day epidemiology of plant diseases of food crops. particularly in the Third World. The report is published in its present form by kind permission of the Commission of the European Communities. and the Director of the Irish Meteorological Service. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors wish [0 record their gratitude to a Zurich. for the Basle and Geneva observations; number of individuals who took great trouble Dr Vklav Richter. Director of the Czech in identifYing relevant meteorological data in Hydrometeorological Institute. Prague. for the their archives and institutions which supplied gift of the long series of carefully homogeniud copies of their data free of charge, notably: daily instrument measurements from Prague (Klementinum) 1775-1975; Professor Dr Dr Hlynur Sigtryggsson. Director of the Iceland Weather Bureau. who supplied the Godlewski. Director of the Institute of Stykkisholmur observations; SjMn Meteorology and Water Management. Warsaw. for the provision of observation data from that Kristjinsd6ttir. Reykjavik. who obtained and translated the Eyjafjordur data in a period of city and translation of the key words; to great personal inconvenience to herself; Dr Professor Manuel Puigcerv<r. Secretary of the Harald Nissen. Librarian of the Kongelige Royal Academy of Sciences and Arts. Norske Videnskabersselskab (housed in the Barcelona. for transcribing the observations University Library). Trondheim; Dr Kaare that were printed in the newspaper Diano de Barcelona; and to Dr W 0 Hyde of the UK Langlo (at the time. Director) Norwegian Meteorological Institute. Blindern. Oslo; Dr Meteorological Office. who was at the time Principal Meteorological Officer at Gibraltar. Knut Frydendahl and the Director of the Danish Meteorological Institute. whose ships' for obtaining photocopies of the weather data were a particularly valuable addition to the observations there. printed in the newspaper, the Gibraltar Chronicle. from the Gibraltar weather map information. as well as the three stations used in Denmark; Sonja Larsson­ Garrison Library. McCann of the Swedish Meteorological and Mention must also be made of the valuable Hydrological Institute. Norrkoping for facilities provided by the Climatic Research channeling our inquiry for archival Unit at the University of East Anglia. Norwich. meteorological data in Sweden and Finland to by the kind agreement of the present Director. the four different institutions where the data Dr T M L Wigley. Without the use of the are actually held; Dr Hans Alexandersson. valuable unpublished gazeteer of early Meteorological Institute. University of Uppsala; meteorological observing stations compiled. Mrs L R Lowther. Meteorological Office and graciously made available. by Mr J A Library. Bracknell. Berkshire. for finding the Kington, and reference material in the Unit's Palermo data and the Russian observations library. this project would have needed more used; Dr R Sneyers. Institut Royal than twice as long for its completion. Professor Meteorologique de Belgie. for the particularly J C Zadoks (Wageningen) kindly provided fine Brussels data; Dr N Gerbier. head of the information on the modern impact of potato Climatology Division. Service Meteorologique blight in the Netherlands. Metropolitain. Paris. for data from four well distributed French stations. including the The authors are also indebted to the Irish observatory of Paris; M Claude Pichard of Meteorological Service. Dublin. for various Geispolsheim. Alsace. for the Me" facilities generously made available. including observations; Dr B Primault and Dr W observational data of the time and copies of the Schuepp of the Swiss Meteorological Institute. potato blight warnings currently being issued. iv - ---- ------ CONTENTS Page List of Maps and Diagrams ____... ______. __ VI Chapter I Introduction I Chapter 2 The Potato Crop in Europe _____._.__ 3 Chapter 3 The Meteorology of Potato Blight __ .____ 7 Chapter 4 The Weather in the Years Concerned 13 Chapter 5 Potato Blight in Europe in 1845 31 Chapter 6 Potato Blight in Europe in 1846 ______ 41 Chapter 7 Summary of Conclusions 49 References --_. ---------- ___ 51 Appendix List of Meteorological Observation Sites and Data Sources _. _____._. ___ .______ 54 Index 64 v LIST OF MAPS AND DIAGRAMS Fig. 1 Approximate extent of potato blight attacks in the USA and Canada in the years 1843-45 (after Stevens. 1933). Fig. 2 Air trajectory for the transport of foot-and-mouth disease from Brittany to the UK on 10 March 1981 (after Donaldson d a~ 1982). Fig. 3 Anomalies of the air temperatures prevailing in (a) June. (b) July. (e) August. (d) Septembc:r. 1845-i.e. departures in °C of the monthly mean temperature from the 1851-1950 average. Fig. 4 Anomalies of the air temperatures prevailing in (a) June. (b) July. (c) August. (d) Septembc:r. 1846-i.e. departures in °C of the monthly mean temperature from the 1851-1950 average. Fig. 5 Anomalies of the mean air temperatures for the (a) summer of 1845. (b) winter of 1845-46. (c) summer of 1846 and (d) winter of 1846- 47. i.e. summer departures in °C of the mean temperature of the period June. July and August and winter departures of the period Deccmbc:r. January and February from the 1851-1950 average. Fig. 6 Mean barometric pressure at sea level in hectoPascals in July 1845. Fig. 7 Mean barometric pressure at sea level in hectoPascals in July 1846. Fig. 8 Synoptic weather map: situation at 14h. on 23 July 1845. Fig. 9 Synoptic weather map: situation at 14h. on 17 Septembc:r 1845. Fig. 10 Synoptic weather map: situation at 14h. on 31 July 1846. Fig. 11 Dates in 1845 when progress of blight was so generally noticeable as to cause comment and alarm. Fig. 12 Blight weather spells and their effective duration (in hours) in seasons with early development of potato blight in the Netherlands. Belgium and Chile. Fig. 13 Blight weather spells and their effective duration (in hours) in Belgium and Ireland during the potato growing seasons 1845-1847. Fig. 14 Approximate distribution of potato blight damage in western Europe in 1846. Fig. 15 Population changes after 1821 in Ireland and in England - Wales. VI CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION I.l Subject agricultural production which merits a full This report is concerned with a quantitative review by a competent authority (Whyte. 1963). biometeorological study of the interaction of No such review has yet been undertaken. weather and plant disease in the historic potato Meanwhile certain trends in agricultural blight epidemic of 1845-6 in western Europe. practice have tended. if anything. to increase Dr Austin Bourke (Dublin). author of a the risk of sudden sharp crop losses due to number of previous studies of potato blight and disease or pest. despite the development of the Irish disaster in the eighteen-forties. resistant plant varieties and of chemical and extended his srudies in this report with the aid other counter-measures. of a much more comprehensive collection of Paradoxically the risk of serious attacks by meteorological data from allover Europe than plant parasites has tended to increase by reason was previously available. Professor Hubert of the very practices designed to promote food Lamb (Norwich) reports in Chapter 4 on the production: rapid and widespread adoption of data collected and on the reconstruction of the new cuhivars. more intensive cropping, the meteorological situations in the 1840s which growing of more than one crop per year. the were part of the background to the disaster. wide use of irrigation and increased fertilizer use. The phytosanitary dangers of devoting 1.2 Background ever greater areas of land to a single crop and Concern has been growing in recent years as to often to a single variety (monoculrure) in place how future climatic change might affect of the diversified patterns of traditional farming agriculrural production. A realistic assessment have already begun to show themselves in of this question needs to take account not different parts of the world. merely of how the changed environment would affect the growth and wellbeing of plants and 1.3 Objective animals. but also of the repercussions of an An example of a most devastating sudden altered climate on the distribution and disease attack on a food crop is the historic virulence of a wide variety of diseases and pests epidemic of potato blight which ravaged much which can damage farm crops and livestock. of western Europe in 1845-6. The objective of Nearly thirty years ago Dr R 0 Whyte of FAO this report is to carty out a detailed case srudy of drew attention to this problem as an aspect of the 1845-6 epidemic.
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