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Climate Change: Changing …Well…Everything

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Climate Change: Changing …Well…Everything Climate Change: Changing …Well…Everything Terry L. Root Sarasota County Professor, Emerita UF/IFAS Extension Stanford University & Sustainability November 30, 2017 1. Climate Change Past & Future. 2. Other Living Beings . 3. What We All . Can (& Must) Do . Upsala Glacier Upsala GlacierArgentina in Argentina 1926 1928 2004 Photo: © Greenpeace/De Agostini/Beltra 2004 Temperature Change Temperature Year Climate.NASA.gov Global Temperature Change (oC) Relative to Average from 1850-1900 Total Volume of: Water Atmosphere Climate.NASA.gov Projected Global Surface Temperature Change (C) Global Temperature Change (oC) Relative to Average from 1858-1900 Sea Level Rise by 2100 (10’) 2. Other Living Beings . Frank Chapman Questions? Comments? Suggestions? www.awwi.org Type of Changes Phenology Shift 28-Jun Sandhill Crane 29-May 29-Apr 30-Mar First Arrival First Day Arrival 29-Feb 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 Type of Changes Range Shifts Extinction Background Extinction Rate: <1 species in 1000 species over 1000 years Current extinction rate is ~1 in 10 species over 100 years IPCC Assessment Report 4: Up 2oC = ~400,000 species extinctions Up 4oC = ~1 Million species extinctions 3. What We All Can (& Must) Do Cats 2.4 Billion Windows 599 Million per Year Killed Birds Autos 200 Million Pwr Lines 25 Million Towers 6.6 Million Electro. 5.6 Million Turbines 234,000 Thanks for Listening Ocean Acidification – The Evil Twin of Climate Change Emily R. Hall, Ph.D. Ocean Acidification Program Manager and Staff Scientist Mote Marine Laboratory Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2007 WHAT IS OCEAN ACIDIFICATION? Science Multiple Stressors in our Oceans Feely et al., 2009; Moss et al., 2010; IPCC, 2014 Corals on Acid Natural conditions Ocean acidification Fine and Tchernov, 2007 Science Ambient pH Coccolithophores Coccolithophores largest producer of calcite on Earth G. oceanica E. huxleyi C. quadriperforatus NASA image Riebesell et al. 2000 Langer et al. 2006 C. braarudii Ambient pH pH Coccolithophores Coccolithophores largest producer of calcite on Earth G. oceanica E. huxleyi C. quadriperforatus NASA image Riebesell et al. 2000 Langer et al. 2006 C. braarudii Coastal and Estuarine Acidification Cai et al. 2011 • Impacts of OA may be more immediate and noticeable in coastal zones! • Acidified via: • atmospheric CO2 fluxes • acidic river water • upwelling of CO2 enriched deep water • Some coastal zones show seasonally low pH while others showing progressively declining pH levels in recent decades Strong et al., 2014 Coastal and Estuarine Acidification • Combined effects from freshwater input, eutrophication, and hypoxia • Increased nutrient loading in estuaries causes accumulation of algal biomass – Microbial degradation of this organic matter decreases oxygen levels and contributes to hypoxia – Microbial degradation of organic matter also produces CO2 and lowering of seawater pH – Temporal and spatial scales Wallace et al., 2014 Some of the drivers and impacts of pH change in several potential hotspots of coastal acidification around the United States. Because of their varying geographic, ecological, and socioeconomic positions, different regions will experience acidification to different degrees – Strong et al. 2014 Other Calcifying Species Dungan et al, in prep Ambient High CO2 200x 432x High CO2 leads to reduced development of intricate spine morphology, leading to the absence of protective barbs. Dungan et al, in prep Ambient High CO2 422x 422x Base of ambient and high CO2 spines. High CO2 leads to greater porosity in calcite crystal. How to manage all? High-CO2 ocean water can mix with low-alkalinity riverine water in areas of high respiration of organic material to create hotspots of pH-change vulnerability in some estuaries (Hu and Cai, 2013) • Improvements in monitoring, modeling, compilation of river input, and regional coastal modeling • Evolutionary adaptation • Ecosystem scale impacts • Socioeconomic impacts • Management response • Monitoring OA chemistry • Public education programs • Include genetic diversity • Restoration programs • Refugia Refugia / Areas that will Thrive • Seagrass • Deep Holes • Vents • Mangroves • Algal dominated systems Big Questions - Who will be the “winners” and who will be the “losers”? - Should restoration efforts be geared toward protecting the “stronger” species? Or is there a chance that what we see as “weaker” species will actually adapt? - What other species will be directly impacted (or even indirectly) by ocean acidification and climate change? - How will ecosystems as a whole be affected? ***Can we change or slow down the process of ocean acidification/climate change?*** ***Are there other ways to protect our marine and coastal ecosystems?*** Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Plan Stevie Freeman-Montes City of Sarasota Sustainability Manager Purpose of the Climate Adaptation Plan • Ensure public services into the future • Remain competitive, resilient, and well-planned • Enhance the conversation about climate science among city staff • Help organize projects for funding • Improve planning and policy Photo| Sherri Swanson Sherri Photo| Scope of Study Government Infrastructure Neighborhoods Businesses Resiliency 3 Six Step Process Step Step Step Step Step Step 1 2 3 4 5 6 Identify Reaserch and Infrastructure Vulnerability Prioritize Adaptation Analyze Adaptation Inventory Assessment Vulnerabilities Plan Climate Trends Strategies Photo| Sherri Swanson Sherri Photo| Project Timeline 5 Step 1 Identify Local Climate Projections • Sea Level Rise • NOAA 2017 Projections • About 12 to 18 inches by 2050 (compared to 2017 levels) • Storm Surge • 2050’s category 1 will look like today’s category 2 Step 1 Identify Local Climate Projections • Extreme Rainfall • Local tidal gauges show no clear trend • SE United States increasing • 5-10% increase • Seasonal and interannual variability • Extreme Heat • Average mean temperature has ↑ 2.20 F since 1965 • Air temperature ↑ 3.6oF – 5.4oF by 2050 Step 2 - Infrastructure Inventory and Mapping Photo| Sherri Swanson Sherri Photo| Step 3 - Vulnerability Assessment • Focus • Critical assets • Evacuation routes • High risk assets Montes • Calculated Risk - • Sensitivity X Adaptive Capacity • Likelihood X Consequence Photo| Stevie Freeman Stevie Photo| Step 4 - Prioritize Vulnerabilities Priority Infrastructure Risk Vulnerability Transportation Thirty-four (34) transportation assets were evaluated; fifteen (15) were deemed most vulnerable Stormwater Fifty-two (52) stormwater assets were evaluated; twenty-nine (29) were deemed most vulnerable Public Lands and Shorelines Forty-seven (47) public lands and six (6) shorelines were evaluated; nine (9) public lands and two (2) shorelines were deemed most vulnerable Step 5 – Identify Adaptation Strategies Measures developed for eighty (80) assets deemed most vulnerable or critical Transportation Adaptation Measures Water Supply Adaptation Measures Adaptation Plan Recommendations ❷Integrate climate projections into CIPs, RFPs and RFQs ❸Support drainage model revisions that incorporate SLR, storm surge and extreme precipitation. ❹Identify funding for prioritized vulnerabilities and corresponding climate resiliency and hazard mitigation projects ❺Establish a city fund to acquire public lands for habitat protection, stormwater management, and green/blue infrastructure projects. Photo| Sherri Swanson Sherri Photo| Adaptation Plan ❻Evaluate opportunities to implement public assessments, green bonds or other innovative tools to fund climate resiliency projects that protect public infrastructure assets and public lands. ❽Develop a Regional Climate Council that combines intergovernmental coordination and the private sector to encourage partnerships that can work to solve the local challenges of climate change. ❾Expand the Adaptation Study to identify opportunities for greater resiliency across business districts, neighborhoods, and industrial areas. ❿Utilize the City of Sarasota Sustainability Department to facilitate implementation and annual reporting to the Commission. Photo| Sherri Swanson Sherri Photo| Step 6 – Adaptation Plan • Draft Final Adaptation Plan – http://www.sarasotafl.gov/SGC • Present Plan to City Commission • December 4, 2017 • Publish Final Adaptation Plan - January Stevie Freeman-Montes City of Sarasota Sustainability20 Manager .
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