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The Implications of Climate Variability and Change on Rural Household Food Security in Zambia: Experiences from Choma District, Southern Province

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The Implications of Climate Variability and Change on Rural Household Food Security in Zambia: Experiences from Choma District, Southern Province THE IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE ON RURAL HOUSEHOLD FOOD SECURITY IN ZAMBIA: EXPERIENCES FROM CHOMA DISTRICT, SOUTHERN PROVINCE. BY PALIJAH SIANUNGU C50/74730/2014 A research project submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in Environmental Planning and Management in the Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Faculty of Arts, University of Nairobi. NOVEMBER 2015 DECLARATION This research project is my own original work and has not been presented for award of degree in any other university. Signature______________________________Date_____________________________ PALIJAH SIANUNGU (Candidate) This project has been submitted with our approval as university supervisors. Signature______________________________Date______________________________ DR ALICE O. ODINGO (Lecturer) Signature______________________________Date_______________________________ DR BORNIFACE N. WAMBUA (Lecturer) ii DEDICATION To my Mum and Dad, young brothers and sisters for being the inspiration behind this work. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I am grateful to the almighty God for making everything possible for me to do this work. I also give credit to my supervisors, Dr Alice Odingo and Dr Boniface Wambua for their guidance and for being always available for consultation and giving their feedback promptly despite their busy schedules. I also thank, Dr Isaiah Nyandega for his assistance during my data analysis. I am as well immensely indebted to all my classmates who contributed directly or indirectly to this work. Finally, am deeply indebted to my Mum and Dad, brothers Chimuka, Mutale and Bupe and sisters Mwansa and Linda for the financial and moral support as well as for their prayers during this journey. I also thank the lady closest to my heart, Maambo Sejani, for always being there for me every day of this journey. To each of you, may God richly bless you. iv ABSTRACT The study analyzes the implications of climate variability and change on rural household food security in Zambia with specific reference to Choma district. The district like the rest of the country is grappling with the effects of climate variation and change as well as other factors that affect crop production, in particular, luck of farming inputs such as fertilizer and seed. However, the approach used in this study associates the rural household food security situation in the district to climate variation and change and the investigation focuses on two climatic factors, mean annual rainfall and temperature. The study was guided by one hypothesis which negated the existence of a significant relationship between climate variability and change, and the rural household food security situation in the district. Both primary and secondary data was used. In particular, primary data (through questionnaires) was collected from a sample survey of one hundred rural households taken from 23,356 rural households. Multi stage sampling was used to select both the study sites and the sampling units. On the other hand, secondary data in form of mean annual rainfall and temperature from 1976 – 2014 as well as while district level production of the staple (maize) for the same period was used. Trend analysis, multiple regression and frequencies were used to analyze these data. The results show that mean annual temperature had increased during the period while mean annual rainfall was characterized by inter annual variability. On the other hand, the results show that the rural household food security situation was fluid (not static) and that 78 percent of the rural households had experienced food shortages while 22 percent did not. However, the study established that the climate variables used the study did not have a significant effect on production of the staple crop (maize) and accounted for only 12 percent of the variation in production. Based on these findings, the study concluded that mean annual temperature and rainfall were not the main determinants of the rural household food security situation in Choma district. To deal with this minimum contribution of climatic factors to food security, the study recommends that rural households begin to adopt other crops other than maize that can perform well under the prevailing climatic conditions. v TABLE OF CONTENTS DECLARATION ....................................................................................................................... ii DEDICATION .......................................................................................................................... iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS....................................................................................................... iv ABSTRACT ...............................................................................................................................v LIST OF TABLES .................................................................................................................... xi LIST FIGURES ....................................................................................................................... xii LIST OF PLATE..................................................................................................................... xiii LIST OF ACRONYMS ............................................................................................................xiv CHAPTER ONE .......................................................................................................................1 INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................................1 1.1 Background to the study ........................................................................................................1 1.2 Problem statement .................................................................................................................3 1.3 Objectives of the study ..........................................................................................................4 1.4 Research questions ................................................................................................................4 1.5 Research hypotheses..............................................................................................................5 1.6 Justification of the study ........................................................................................................5 1.7 Scope of the study .................................................................................................................6 1.8 Definition of Key Concepts ...................................................................................................7 CHAPTER TWO ......................................................................................................................9 THE STUDY AREA .................................................................................................................9 2.1 Introduction ...........................................................................................................................9 2.2 Location ................................................................................................................................9 2.3 Climate..................................................................................................................................9 2.3.1 Agro – climatic conditions ............................................................................................ 13 2.4 Soils and Topography .......................................................................................................... 13 2.4.1 Soils.............................................................................................................................. 13 2.4.2 Topography .................................................................................................................. 14 2.5 Drainage .............................................................................................................................. 14 2.6 Demographic Characteristics ............................................................................................... 14 2.7 Socio-Economic Activities .................................................................................................. 16 vi 2.8 Land Tenure ........................................................................................................................ 16 CHAPTER THREE ................................................................................................................ 18 LITERATURE REVIEW ....................................................................................................... 18 3.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 18 3.2 Climate Variability and Change ........................................................................................... 18 3.2.1 Climate variability and change – Global perspective ..................................................... 19 3.2.2 Climate variability and change in Africa ....................................................................... 19 3.2.3 Climate variability and change in Southern Africa ........................................................ 20 3.2.4 Climate variability and change in Zambia ..................................................................... 21 3.3 Climate variability and change, and food security - the linkages .........................................
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