•ouTLOOK ISSUE I 01947 ;a: . ·~~ SITUATION BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOM I.CS UNITED STATtS DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE _F_o_s_-_11_1 ______~-«~B SEPTEMBER 19~6
FATS ANO OILS: PRODUCTION FROM DOMESTIC MATERIALS, I DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE FROM ALL MATERIALS, AND • INDEX NUMBERS OF WHOLESALE PRICES, 1912-46
POUNDS ,---~------,------.------.------,~-----.------,------. I BILLIONS)
10
8
6
PRICES OF EIGHT DOMESTIC FATS AND OILS ( 1935- 39=100)
200
150
100
1950 I946 PRODUCTION, DJSAPPEARAN<.:b·, AND PRICE ,.URECAST. DISAPPEARANCE INCLUDES IMPORTED AS WELL AS DOMESTIC FATS AND OILS
U. 5. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE NEG. 432.72 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
Wholesale prices of 8 domestic fats and oils probably will average over 200 percent of 1935-39 In the second half of 19~6 compared with 152 percent In the first half year. This lncrea$e reflects the temporary lapse of price cell ings in July and August, exemption of butter from price control, and increases in price cell lngs for lard and other Items In September. With reductions In the 19~6 fall pig croJ and In the 19~6 output of flaxseed, do.mestlc production of fats and oils will be smaller in the first 9 months of 194-7 than a yea.r earlier. Stocks at the beginning of the year probably will be the smallest In 20 years. Imports may Increase, but the net balance of Imports over exports w·Jll still be far below prewar. These factors will support prices at a high level In 19~7, althou.gh a decline In prices may occur in the latter part of the year If there Is a general business recession. SEPTEMBER 1946 - z - Table 1.- Yfuolesale price per pound of fats, oils, and glycerin at specified markets,. and index numbers of prices of fats and oils, August 1944 and 1945, June-August 1946 PRICES Item August 1 August 1946 1944 1945 August Cents Cents Cents Cents Cents Butter, 92-score, Chicago ••••••• , , ••• , , •••••• , , , , •• ••••• ,, , c 4i:6 4i:6 51,5 1 69.6 69.7 Butter, 92-score, New York ••••••••••••••• , •••••••••••• , •• , • 1 42.2 42.2 52.2 y1o.o 70.5 Oleomargarine, dom. veg., Chicago ...... , .: 19.0 19.0 19,0 21.0 25.5 Shortening, cottonseed, hydrogenated, 10-dr~ lots, N. y, ••1 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.9 19,1i Lard, loose, Chica6o ••••••••••••• ;, ••• , ••• , •••••• , •• , , , •••• : 12.4 1~.8 13.0 20,9 31.4 Lard, prime steam, tierces, Chicago ••••••••••••••••••••••••! 13.4 13.8 14.0 22.0 32.8 Lard, refined, 1-pound cartons, Chicago ••••••••••••••••••••1 16.6 15,6 15.8 '})27.0 35.7 Oleo oil, extra, tierces, Chicago ••••••••••••••••••••••••••1 13.0 13.0 13.0 16.7 Oleostearine, bbl., N. Y. • •••••• , ••••••• , ••••••• , •••••••••• .s: 10.5 10.5 10.5 _y'l4.8 ;/17 ,8 Tallow, edible, Chicago • , • , , , , , •• , , , •• , ••••• , •••• , •• , •• , • , , 1 9.9 9,9 9.9 14.8 17.6 • Corn oil, crude, tanks, f,o,b, mills ...... ,, 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.8 Corn oil, edible, returnable drums, l.o.l., New York •••••••' 16.5 16.6 16.6 16.6 Cottonseed oil, crude, tanks, f,o.b.; S.E. mills ...... , 12.8 12.8 12.8 y'l6.2 y15.s • Cottonseed oil, p.s.y., tank oars, N. Y, •••••••••••••••••••! 14.3 14.3 14.3 17.5 Peanut oil, crude, tanks, f.o.b. mills , ...... · ...... 1 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 Peanut oil, refined, edible (white), drums, N. Y. ,,,,,,,,,, 1 16.5 16.5 16.5 Soybean oil, crude, tank cars, midwestern mills ••••••••••••1 ll.B 11.8 ll.B 11.8 13.7 Soybean oil, edible, drums, l.o.l., N.Y. ••••••••••••••••••! 15.2 15.4 15.4 17.6 20.0 Sunflower oil, semi-refined, tank oars, f.o.b, N. Y. •••••••• 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.3 • Babassu oil, t8.Ilks,. N. Y. ••••••••••• •••••• •••••• •• •••••••••' ll.l 11.1 12.0 12.0 Coconut oil, Manila, crude, o,i,f, Pacific Coast y ..... ·... : 11.0 11.0 n.o 11.0 Olive oil, imported, edible, drums, N· y, ...... 1 126.7 77.5 Olivo oil, California, edible, drums, N. y, ••••••••••••••••• 60.7 60.7 58.7 58.7 58.7 Olive-oil foots, imported, drums, oarlots, N. y, •••••••••••' 18.0 18.0 18.0 Palm oil, Congo, crude, bulk, N. y, 5/ •••••••••••••••••••••• 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 Rapeseed oil, refined, denatured, bulk, N. Y. ••••••••••••••' u.s _o/11.6 13 .o 13,0 13.0
Tallow, inedible, prime, oarlots, Chicago .... ~ ...... : 8.6 8.6 8,6 12.1 8,6 Tallow, No. 1, inedible, Chicago •••••••••••••••••••••••••••I 8.4 8,4 8.4 11.8 8.4 Grease, A \Vhi te, Chicago • , • , , • , ••• , , •••• , , , •••••• , ••••• , •• , 1 8.0 8,8 8.e 12.2 8.8 Menhaden oil, crude, tanks, f.o.b. Baltimore •••••••••••••••: 8.7 8,9 8.9 10.4 8,9 Sardine oil, crude, tanks,. Pacific Coast •••••••••••••••••••= a.o 8.9 8.9 n.o 8.9 Whale oil, refined, bleached winter; drums, N. Y. ··~··•••••I 12.3 12.3 Cottonseed-oil foots, raw, (50% T.F,A.) delivered, Eas~ ••••• 3.6 3,6 3.6 4.1 3.6 • Linseed oil, raw, tank oars, Minneapolis •••••••••••••••••••! 14.3 14.3 14.3 16.4 15.6 Linseed oil, raw, nonreturnable drums, oarlots, N. Y. ······• 15.5 15.5 15.5 17.6 16.8 Oiticica oil, drums, £.o.b. N. Y. •••••••••••••• ••••••••••••t 20.4 24.8 25.5 '})25.6 26.0 Tung oil, returnable drums, oarlots, N. Y...... : 39.0 39.0 39.0 39,0 39.0
Castor oil, No. 3, bbl., N. y, ...... : 13.8 13.8 14.8 14.8 14.S Castor oil, No. 1, tanks, N. y, ...... , 13.0 13.0 14.2 7_/19.8 Castor oil, dehydrated, tanks, N. y, ...... ,, 17.7 17.9 19.4 19.9 Cod-liver oil, med, U.S.P., bbl., N. Y. ••••••••••·•••••••••' 31.6 33.2 35.2 35.2 35.2 Cod oil, Newfoundland, drums, N. Y...... c 11.7 ll.5 11.9 11.9 11.9 Degras, cormnon, barrels, N. Y. ••• ••••••••••••••••• •••••••••: 11.0 11.0 u.o ll.O 11.0 Neat•s-foot oil, pure, oarlots, barrel.s, N. y, ...... : 18.2 15.!3 16.0 18,8 22.0
Glycerin, soap lye, basis BOf., tanks, N. Y. , ...... , : 11.5 11.1 11.5 12.0 11,5
INDL:X NmffiERS (1935-39 100) • = Eight domestic fats rurrd oils (1910-14 • 100) •••••••••••••••• 142 142 162 244 SevQn domestic fats and oils (1910-14 = 100), butter excl •• : 148 150 151 264 E:ight domestio fats and oils ...... (, 72*) .... , 1 139 140 160 24:0 Seven domestic fats and oils, butter excluded •• (,79*) •••••• 143 146 147 256
All fats and oils (27 items) , .. , ...... (,73*) ••••• s 147 148 166 222 229 All fats and oils, except butter (26 items) •••• ( ,82*) ..... : 154 155 155 204 207 Grouued ~ origin: An~mal fats ... , ...... (.69*) ·····t: 138 139 165 230 246 Marine animal oils ...... ,,,(,'77*) ..... : 170 170 171 187 171 Vegetable oils, domestic ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(,84*) ..... ' 160 160 160 190 188 ~'egetable oils, foreign ...... ,(,88*) ..... : 177 177 177 212 183 Grouped ~ use: Butter ..-:-:: ...... (,67*l ••••• I. 139 139 173 236 236 Butter, seasonally adjusted ••••••••••••••••••(,67* ..... : 143 143 190 254 243 Lard •••••••••••••••••••••• •••••• •••• ,, ••••••• ~.78* ••••• 1 131 135 137 215 322 Othar food fats ...... ·84* ••••• t 168 168 168 221 200 All food fe.ts ...... ,71* • • • • • I 144 145 168 231 244 Soap fats • , , , , • , ••••• , ••••• , , , , , , ••• , , , • , ••• , , 80*) • • • • • I 150 lnO 150 17S 154 Drying oils ...... , .. , , , • , .. , .... , , (,85*) • • • • • I 175 174 174 193 185 Miscellaneous oils ...... , (,71")· ..... : 154 154 163 163 163 All industrial fats and oils ••••••••••••••• (,82*) ..... : 160 160 160 103 166 Prices compiled trom Oil, Paint and Drug Reporter, The National ProVisioner, The Journal of Commerce (New York); a!'d reports of Production and Marketing Administration, and Bureau of Labor Statistics. Excise taxes and duties included where applicable. Index numbers of earlier years beginning 1910 are given in Technical Bulletin No. 7~7 (~&40) and The Fats and Oils Situation beginning December 1940. 1( Revised. !(Chicago, ;.'Loose, N. y, ij Southwest mills. y Three-cent processing ta.."t c.dded to price as originally quoted. .o/ New Orleans. 7; Less than carlots. *Multiply by this factor to convert ourrent index number (1935-39 = 100) to old basis (1924-2S: lOO). FOS-111 - 3 -
T H E F A T S AND 0 I 1 S 8 I T U A T I 0 N
Approved by the Out;lool~ and Situation Bm:.rd, September 24, 1946 -·- -··------Contents·
SlmJTIJary 3 0 1.ltlook 6 Reoent Developm6nts ••••.••••.••••• 14
Go\rerrun.ent }_c ti ons ...... , o • o ••••• 16
SUMMARY
United Sta'ces imj)orts of fats and oils are likely to increase sub-
stantj,_ally in 194'7, Export::, on the other ha::1.d, are exre0ted to be smaller
than in J.S4E1, largely ar; a recwlt of reciuced prodt1ction and stocks in this
country. Expol't su~;pli.os of copra in che PhiJ.iprines 8.nd thA "outer islands"
of the East Indies, whale oil in the Antarctic, <:Lnd linseed oil in Ar"'gentina
are likely to increase r.:.a teri&lly in lc:-14'7.
Total exports of fats m:d oi:;,<" from surplus-proc'ucing ar:;as, however,
will ;S_ti_ll be well below prewar in H47 anC. perhaps in 19-±8. Vvhale-oil
production in the Antarctic under inte~·national ag:::·eement is limited to
about 60 percent of thA prewar lvvel oi' 1 billion pounds. Export supplies • of fats and oils in lndia will be less than nra11mr becttuse industrial development and increased consumer Gpendir:g IWWL r in India l1ava resulted in
an increased consumption in that country. Strong domestic demands also are
limiting exports in other surpl'..1s urGas, st poli ticul unrest still prevailing in Jr·va and Sumatra, prospects are dim for resumption of exports of paht oil from the Bri.st Indies. It is uncertain when and in what quantity Manchurian soyoea~ts ::md re1·j.lln Sfled will o.gain be R.vailable in world trade. And it mE'-Y be l'lans months before China resnmos exports of edible oils and bmg oil in volu.rn.t:;. SEPTEMBER 1946 - .:1 - Production of fats and oils from domestic m£cterials in: the next 12 months probably'will be moderutt::ly smaller than in the 12 months ending September 30, 1946. Lurd and grease production in the late spring and summer of 1947 will be smaller than a year earlier .• reflecting a 15 to 20 pnrcont reduction in the 1946 fall pig c1~op. Linseed-oil output from domestic flG.xsood will bo substMtially smaller in the' first half of 1947 than in the first half ,l of 1946 as a result of ~he 38-porcent decline in the fl~xseod crop in 1946. ,, A slight reduction in soybean-oil production Dlso is likuly in tlh; next 12 months. Cottonseed-oil production wi 11 continuo c,t tho low love l of 1945-46, as the cottons0od crop is unusuully srar 11 :ctgc,in this ;'{EH:tr. Butter production mr-~.y inc rouse slightly in 1946-47. Tot~d output of fr,ts from domestic ml..:.tc-JriCtls in 1946-47 is tentatively forecr.tst at 8.6 billion pounds, 3 percent less th~n a ycmr es.rlier but about 5 perccmt ubovc: the 1937-41 f.cvernge. Output in 1847-48 may show some incros_se ovor 1946-47, but the in crease will not be greL;t unless tho spring ccnd fall pig crops of 1947 show substantio.l gains over 1946. The tlog-corn price rE.tio this winter, r,t coiling prices for hogs, -wilJ. not be p~:~rticularly favorable for nn ·exp:.nsion in the spring pig crop, even if corn priees doclins to support lovols. But tho normo.l ro lo. tionship betvJe~Cm. tho siz o of the pig; crop r:.<.nd hog- corn pric.e f ratio may be upset by tho prospect of tormination of price control b~r mid-1947. Price relutionships probe-bly vvi 11 be f'nvornblo for :;,n exp~msion in tho 19·17 fall pig crop, pc..rticulccrly vdth a fo.irly lc,rgo co.rry..;ovo1· of HJ·.l:;)-crop corn in prospect. Expansion also is possible in output of domestic. oilseeds. A 50-percent increasEJ in fls.xseod acrU With reduced :production in 1946-47 •· onl~r a :part of the net gain from the prospective increase in imports and decrease in exports will show up as more fats and oils for domestic consumption~ . Facto~r and warehouse stocks of fats and oils in the United States on October 1, 1946 probably will be 300 to 4oo million pounds smaller than the 1,655 million :pounds on hand a year earlier, Thus. consumption cannot be supp~ement~d in 1946-47~ as in the preceding 1~ • months. by drawing on stocks. Civilian consumption in 1946-47 (year beginning t October) may be slightly larger per :person tr...an in 1~45-46 but will be rnoder- ately below prewar and considerably _below demand at ceiling prices. Dcuarid for fats and oils is expected to be maintained at a high level well into 1947 by record high peacetime levels of industrial activity and consumer inc·ome. Until mid-1947. prices of· fats and oils :probably will be at Cf?il:i:ng levels. or higher if ceilings are removed. Prices after mid.-1947 1·rill be materiall:· affected b:· chanees in business investment and consumer incones. A marked recession in general business lines, if it occurs, probably would be accompanied b:r declines in :prices of fats and oils despite the apparent scarcity of supplies. Prices of oilseeds will be relativf>l:· high in the 1946-47 marketing year,. Soybein prices will be at ceiling levels through June 1947, or higher .. if ceilings. are removed. In accordance 1.ri th a recent recommendation of the Secretary of Agriculture, ceilings for soybeans are soon to be increased 15 cents per bushel, to $2.25 for No o 1 or No. 2 green and yellOi-1 varieties. The support :price for so~·beans remains at $2.04 per bushel, the same as last season. Returns to producers for fla..-' at $3.60 per bushel. Minneapolis bas:i.s." if necessary. The prevailing market ' > price. however, will be the recently announced ceiling of $4.00 per bushel, Minneapolis. .A. suppo~t p~ice of $4.oo. :per bushel. Minneapolis, recently was announced for 1947-crop flaxseed. Dwring 1945-46, flaxseed sold for $3.10. .. ~ - 6 -· .·.~ Minneapolis,·_and in addition farmers wero elig~ble-:for·payment of $5.00 per planted 13.cire, equivalent to ab9ut 56 cents per bushel·on the basis of the national average yield per acre in 1945. The supl)Ort price for peanuts.produced'in 1946 is 8.6 cents per pound ($172 per ton), compared with an avElr9{;e of 8.2 cents received by farmers for the 1945 erop. :Peanut prices are not likely to be much .above support levels in the current marketing yeax. In late Sept ember thoSecretary of Agriculture recoll1!!"!e!).ded, an increase of 1. 75 cents per pO"lL."'"ld in price ceilings for crude cottonseed, soybean, peanut, and corn oils, ,,,_rith related increases to be m':'..de in ceilingsfor products manufactured frol)l. these oils~ Also, the Director of tbe Office of Economic Stabilization recommended that price ceilings on cotton lint 8rS be increased 3 C?nt S per pound, or removed. e On the· bas.is of; price cei15.ngs for cottonseed oil, meal, and, linters, :i:hclud~ ~r .- ing the reco.rnriended i-hc:reases in oil a~d linters» liricos to farmer.s for cottonseed in l94Go47 v\'ould average $68 to $69 per ton c•1mpared 1d.th $52ol0 per ton received ,A for·the 1945 crop. Present legislation requires prices of soyceans, :por.:nut s, ano_ flaxseed to be supported at not less than 90 percent of the compar2.ble or parity price for 2 full calendar. years after the war is officiall:l dech~red ended. This V J3ACKGROUJ:TD.- Domestic outp1.:.t of fats EJ··~d.oils.h..r.s de~lined from the vmr t ime peak Of 10.8 billion }")OUDdS reached in 19~-3 Dnd ae;ain in 1944 to about s.8 billion pO"lL."'"ldS in 1946. A further declin~ may occur in 1947. Declines in the past 2 yc:'crs have resulted chiefly from shPcrp red.uct:).oris in pig crops from the recorcl htghs of 1942 2.nd 1943. Also,. butter output has been materially reduced and flaxseed acreage ~:mel proc:ucti6ri. hcwe de ,,,., clined from the pe~.k r.eo.ched in 1943. · P~·~;~rar, domestic output of fats and oils vvas 8.2 billion pou.r.ds (1937-41 average). · • FOS-111 The -w~..o.rtime world sh' ;rtf~·ge ,1f 0ils &.nd · Lt ~s ·w· s ''br-Jught f\)rcibly tc lign:t .in late 1:~~5 mrd ·cwrly 1G~·6, I'ITi"lon continont~tl Eurcpu ·was rest:>rud ~ts · 11 r:h.~jcr · ir.~JLrting ~t-roa. ExportRble sup plies fr.Jm surpl u;.;-pr,·duC' ing C•lUI.rl;rius wt..r·-~ much be 1'-w ]:Jruvr~: r. Thu world Snl)r"t! t;e vni.s re!'1&ctrJd.-'·ln : reducti•'n )1' ir.Jpo;rts into the'Unitod StD.t0s, cvu:J. l.':rvl·i "blro l>w wo.rtinE: lnvol. Exports fr.1m the UnitAd StatE:s v:Gi:·-o rod'."tced in Hl·:5, reflectiuc tht; tighttming supply si tu:1.ti·)n h.or•J. But ._·xp•.-rts excu~.·doc1 inp,;rts by m.ure than 200 m.illio~ pounds in 19·±5 and prubu_l~ly Vlill ags.in exce~d imp.,rts ;in l9-f6. Before··the ·war, tho Unit6d Sbtt:>s Mointl ' st ...;cks of fc...ts and· oils i'1 tho Uuited clt~tes reached a peo.k ~n mid-19':1.4 as re-Gul t uf ln.rg3 h.Jt-; sl£.ughter and lurd n.nd gre~se prP·duciiiun; but stoc::.Cs ltCI.va declinud stet...d:i ly uln<.: Wh..:lvs:1lc pric<.·s ·f f&.ts rmd )ils udva~1.ccd sh&.rply in 1941 o.nd early 19·_;,2 1 but 1 tmd er <'ei lings, pric os remained steady from July 18·13 l.L.YJ.til November 18·~5 f,t &bout l!oO rercen t uf' the 193 5-3:3 b.Ver~q;e. A ten-p·,int ris<:: occurrEJd in beth lJ•.Jvcnber 19<.::5 .and June 1946 as a result of i:::J.Cr-.;uS8S in th<..: coiling price f'r)r butter • 11'/ith ·the tempcrary bps.:: cf lJl"ico ceilings July 1, 1846 1 the level of f't: World Ex-port Supplies 0f Fo.ts !otlld Oils Increasing; U.~. !2_'H~vq !i!;sit tffip--;;t" . : - JB~.l~~ !["10.1+7 . - ...... ' .. Expor,t sum1lLs <)f ,fnts, oils, s.nd oilseE..d:s ::J.v:...:il:...blo to N;rth America • UIJ.d Eu!opo fnom~e.j ·r v·.Jrld suirluc-pr·.Jd~wing t:r.e-~:s ·~-~-e estin:.tted t~- b~- ab.mt 5~·5 billior" pc•unus in l~Y~G, c,)mp[lrud ln:ith 4.3 oiilli.)n P·Jlll1ds in 1!145 und a +.9;3L1-38 u.vcro.ge uf ~ .. 6 b~lli,m p0unds. The. princi:rul incre(.ses '.in world supplies in 1946 n!tve bc-un in whc.le-oil pruducti:m in tho Ant~rctic nnd in .copra. exports. i'ro ..1 the Philipph1JS. Output ,)f wht..lc oil in the Antarctic lflst ·winter nnd sprinG tC':t;i;lcd ::J.b·•ut 000' m.ilil.iou pounds whereas no oil :wns pr<'ducoQ in the A::.!.tareti-e: i-:1 19-15. Exp~rts~ ,_,f copra from the Philtpruno Islu.nds ill the first 6 ll:.. ,~1th.> of 19.;,6. t('t~tled 190 million pounds • in te:r;ms ,,f •1il. Noo.rly tv\C· -thirds ·)i' the exports from the Ph'ilippines · were f\,r ultimate c0nsuml-'ti m iD; --~he__ lll~~:t.~d Sta~es.... Jtu:le .. nnd Ju4.y fo~P·~rts "we·re i'-tt--the "rn.ft.. of a.bcu-G 7J milli ·n poun~s cv month (oil 't>qui v~..o.l:·nt), hut ,n:sonsona.l slo.Qk_t-ninr; of'rruductivn ffi[',y i1.old exports to .n l,,w;.;r leval for ·· 'th? bRlance: uf this Y\')t,r.. Philippine copra ,exports t:o;r.._, !wgligible in 1945. Th.-e 1935-~19 a.veru;;e v•e-s 785 1-ailli.)n pounds, in term:;; cf cil~ and'· in 19'39',. . ' SEPTEivillER 19 ±6 .. - 8·- the petLk prewar ~'eur:. 92G million pounds of coconuh.oil and copra (in ter't!l.s of oil) wero 6Xl')0r l;ed. In 1935',.39 aprro:x.imn.tely 79! percent of the e Phi lip pine export S•Upp ly w0s ·impci.rt.ed by tho Uni tod St::. tes. Exports ,,f c:ils· und fats: from J;:ndic.. o.re smaller this yeer than lo.st, becn.uso of a sh•.,rt crop ··Jf fl&xseod:, an. embargo on exports· curing much of the yec,r, and incre:;o.so.d · demimcl in thu.t country. Further incrG~isos are expected in 19,.".:7 in oxp·Jrt suppl:!es in wurld surplus-producing nreus. Philippine copra expurts will be greater in 1947 than in 1946 and. m:::.y .oqwd ·>r· exceed tt-~o prc.;vm:r volume of exports of oil und copr~t •. E:x:P'Jrts of c<·pru and Cl.IC::mut ·Jil fr0m the Netherlands East Indh,;s in 19,1:7 will b0 substantifilly }.arg6r thnn the 100 ·milliLJn poullds estim.o.ted f,;r the letter half <)f 19<16. Prewar expt)rts ·were 748 million pounds (Gil equi v.:,lcnt), 'VVhLle oil output in the .Antarctic next wintE>r, u_11.der present interno.ti-Jne.l restrictiuns, cvuld be increased to a maximum of •· o.round 600 million pounds, c..bout 300 million pounds mere than output in 1946, However~ m the bo.sis r:)f the nur:1ber <)f fe.ctory ships expected to be out- fi ttGd for the l9t±6-47 exreditions' whE:lrJ-oil production in the Antarctic next se&son is more likely t·,> be o.bout 500 nillion pounds, half o.s large as in 1935-39, Exp_rt supplies of fats c.nd oils from Argentina may be. materially k.rger in lSS:7 thto.n in l94:o, ftS relatively high prices tc> farmers probably vvill inC.uco plc·nting ·Jf l~:trge acres.ges, e,specio.lly of flaxseed and s unflovrers. With Jnrgcr w:,rld exp'>rt surpluses C'f f:~ts r..nd oils av!lilable in 1947, imports int;) the United States pr,)bably v:i ll increo.se. Exports. from the United States, on the uthc.-r lwnd, <.lrG lE::ely tJ decline. A net imp·Jrt of fats 8.nd ')ils is likely. This w'•uld be the first net import since 19tJ:2, but the qm.illtity c1f net irnp;Tts wculd be sm&ll comp£..recl with the prewar nv0rage ·l)f net imports totaling 1.,500 million po1.mds. Table 2 .- Fats and oils: Ir.~ports for c Jnsumption, exports, shipnunts to U.S. torri tori es, ~Lnd net inrorts or net expdrts, Uni t·Gd States - 1937-·16 ~ Imports fur Exports :Shipments·-----~~-- to --=--~N~e"t--.i-mp--~~o~r~t~s-- ~ Peri .Jd c ·Jnsumption or . 2/. territories ,net exv)rts ( .. ) ::~ Mi .-·lb. Iviil. lb. ---~-:;--.,.,:r.;----Mil~ ·Ib. Mi 1.- 1 b • Ave·rngo ~ ------1937-41 . 2,017 440 67 1,510 1942 9<18 874 74 y 191±3 y 961 ytJ,,5H 81 -63'1: 194'1 980 1, 567 72 ,..659 19,15 902 1,0~2 71 .. 221 l94B, Jr_cn., .. June 361 530 47 ·-216 }/"Excluding mc.:rga:i:"ine, which gcJes tci Puertn Hi co ~'-nd the Virgin Islnnds. 2/ Including (l) r·3cxr~,rts of items rep<)rtqd ·in ir'lports for consumption; (2) f£,t c;quivo.lent of margr:,rinE:,, 'shortenin[:;, £,nd st~r~:r; (3) Army prr)cu:rement for ·relief [ibroad, and ( 4) Red Cre-ss· pr·~Jc~u·Gmcmt of mLtrgG.rine ancl· S - 9 - Pr,,duction of fats and oils from ..lc•me.stic .r.Rti:Oriu.ls pr·Jbably will be mod/:"rate ly sr:w.ller in the 12 m·:;nths bot;inning October 19/:6 thao1 a ye[:.r o11rlier. Output is tento.tively i\n'Eocast D.t 8.6 billicn pounds, &.bcut 200 million rounds (3 pcrccrlt) less th[,ll the 8.8 billion pounds pr·Jduced in the 12 months onding Se,rtm:J.bel' 30, l G46.; Lard production in the next 12 months wili be :r1~inly ceternincd by . · the ·size of the 19:1:6 spring anc fall pig crclrs. The spring pit; cr''P wc..G indicated to be l P('rcont larger tl:l.E,n a year ectrlier; c::msequently t·.:t:cl hc.t:; slaughter and lurd output this fall a.Y!.G. winter arG. likely tu be ab.:ut the same as a year ehrlier. SomE-· ecr ly s:;rL1g pi·gs a_c.;~1a:::-ontly Wt're marketed at \ light weie;hts in. hte i .. ugust, a r.;,.'Jnth to six weeks Ercrli8r tln:1 usu11l. This r.md n. t.lrobab~E,J ·del::ty in_mfJ.rketings of l•thcr spring p:i;cs ·will tend to reduc8 · lard output; .this f~lll. On tho other hand~ mt:r:.kc ti:c~gs of Spl'in~ pigs aro likely ti:.l be ~elP.tively lr,_rge clurin~ the winter f!n(;, yir-:;lds ,_~f lo.rd per lKg next spring pr.obably will be hi;;her. than last sprin;;. v:.hen the :·ield vms ·mo.terially retluced bv lleavv ~;r J!l;he l i:.1.dications were; f,-.r [, 17-pcrcont reduction in the 1946 fall pig crop. F~tnn.ers' f.;hms Ii't::ly h8.VG baen :r:wcifieC b~l the rrosrect of .".1. burn.per c<::rn' cr0p f but with ;.;,b:wr~':l.ally hi~;h cr.. rn l··riccs curing the surrmur. a sub stantial rcductL;n in the f&ll ~;ig crzrp is likel;;, 1 ·:.Jssi bly exceeding 17 percent. Morketings of hvg.s. next srrint r..ncl sumrner vvi ll be l~atGric,lli snaller thfut 'in'the.spring an.d sU:mn:.er •Jf 19•16. This reduction will be only Jl£\rtly ' offset ·b;'y a lt\rger yielc".. of lt:,rd per animul next yon.r th:m this. With roduced hot; sl&ughter, pr-:1c:uction ·::>f greasp prJbo.bly ;vi 11 also, ·decline next sprinG fllld S'..lmrner below trw level of l9-±6c Butter production mc,y ~ncreo.s& · sl1;;htly in 1946-,±7. Pr;:Jspects e,re good for large sur. plies of feed. Milk rr,,c':.ucti .;n pre bably vd.ll bo r.t~:.lin to.ined nour tho 1946 level even with SD.mewhct feviCr c'ows •. The high we.rtim; rate of consumption· of fluic:. 1nilk am~ cre~tm m.ay be rec:uceG. someilvhn.t by the recent 25-rcrcon~ increo.se in rotc..il rrices fnr tL,?se rruducts • • Prbduction of eC.iblo vGgetab1e oils in the :10xt 12 rrhmths is not likely to differ grontl;;<" from the o1.rtrut in 19/~5-,16, on tJ.w basis ,)f September 1 crop indications. A .C.ecline of '.l: pt~rcent in inclicntecJ soyboe11 prcC:uction·in 1846 is pr:cr·Hy: ::'iJ'sot in its c-ffc-ct m ver:;e.hcbl.;;-,,il rroc':uction by 'a slight· tn;ospective incroasQ in the cottnnsof;d cror. Also; thtre may b0 ,S:Jme increuses in i;roduc.ti?n. of c '.•rn un_d rcu:r_u).:; oils :i.n l94G-47. Corn :'rocessint; probably · wi 11 not bf.J hamp..ered, as ~n .the 19·J: ;;--±6 crop yef Consum:t ti :1n per Person t-J LlCrc:;nso But Will Remuin BelowProv:;-;;:r---- DisE.?~•earnncc of ffLts anC. oils in tht; 194-6 calen,:ar ;rear into civilian tl'D.l~e chnnnels in the LJnit0d. StD.tes l'(lUY totu.l c..bout 62 1-'ClUll(lS~ rer person (incluc':inc '"mly fat c>rd:;:mt of butter) com:)t~rsd with n prew(~r nvorago of 67 })OUnds in 1935-39. Dumestic C·Jnsumptio11 of fooC. f&ts in 19<.i:6 Bay total about 38 i ounC::s per pursun (fnt c,mtunt) comp1red with -±5 ;;uunc(s lJrevwr. Ccm- stunpt:Lm L)f ncnf('Od fats ~1ay. b0 t\oout 2;1 pounds P'Jr person this year. compared with :cn avcrat;a .-;f 2.2 rom~c~s in 1835-39. ~ Tho 1946 level uf consnmJ·tiun (nne. exr 0rts) i.s being renchod mly by clrnwint; on stocks, tvhich nt micl-;yG~tr wera 3SO million rounC:s smaller th:~n u I yeur e0.rli8r nne'.. S1.1t:llcst f,;r tho se1~son in 20 ye"l.rs. So.me increase in in;.. von t''ries :is likely in LYl7, pccrticulnrly if pric0 c·Jilings on fa·ts and oils are rorr1c-voc'. during the y Foeti F!its.- ProC:.uction ')f foo~~ fn.ts e.s :1 gr,;up lara., butter, J:m.r- gs.rine ~ shc)rtoning, and CC'C':dn~ -i;.l1(~ sab.c:l oi::!.s -- I:lflY be noCer::...tel~r lart;;er e in HJ4G-47 ·titan [1 yoar earlic;r. A:1 3XJ,·0ctod c',c;cre[:~.se in lr;;~.rd proC.uction of Hf'_proxinn.tE.:·ly lOC' :raillion J:.)tmcls mn.y !.Je m;::r~' t:1ctll offset by n d(;Cren.se in ex-- rcrts of lard anl b;y &:l incrcoso in cJUtt,Jr )Utputo Production of odi.ulo boof fc:.ts o.nc~ eC::iblo .vo:;ctf::.blo ,)ils 1ro~·a'-'lY vlill n,)t bo much different from out- rut in 19·H>-~16. l:::J.:;·orts c,f eC:iblu f·~ts ftr.'l nile 1 such as sunflower and oottonsee~, ~re likely t() bo no~ligiblc ~s in the ~ast yoar. Exper-ts of. food fats, particul':'crly Lcrd, rrobo.bly will decline in 19L16-~ Ccnsump-ti'm of food fats i;t:;r pe:·so:::1 ill the TJnitec Stl Soar l~.ts .-. The. pr-:->ba1;le reJucti,_m in outrut ')f t;rease in 1946-47 (year bGginning--October) is ucr-0 than offset by an ex;_-·octed increase in imports f of corra. Net hlf ::rts i.!f cr)conut oil (all i::1 the form of cor-·:tn) ;-rtay reach the prevr9.r r21.te -:Jf r1oro than 600 uillion ;:;ounds 5.n lHl:C-47, rouchly tw-ice tho im- -ports of coc.:mut oil for U. S. ocmsu:c1pti')l~ in HJL.;;f)-46. Part of the increase over 1945--±6 n''''Y go t;l f:Jnc.~ ]T·:J(1ucts and part tc industri£,1 ust;)s 1 including scap. Stocks (}f s.~~c-I' fats are now excGrticn!;.lly l0w._ Drying Oils.- Al rroximntely 26 milli.m bnshols of donestic and 3 million bushels of iT;l}HTtetl flaxs0c.~c~ VT<>re crusher:. in 19·:!:5-~',6 (July to June). The total output of linseec', ~il1'r0rr1 this.crush Vias 588 millicn l''mncs, with an esti::no.ted 519 million j?t)Ul1GS fro::-•1 (~-- 1 l'.iGStic fh,:xseod, 34 I!lillit'l;:l 1 r)UDCS from Uruguayan flaxseec~, 27 r:illion·r('Ui.H's fro;.l Arc0:1tinc 'flc.x_st;G(.~ .. ::mu 8.milli:m. pounds e from Cnnadia..n and M~xican flaxs<3ed. In acJ.t'1i-t;Lm, nr-;t imy,orts r)f linseed oil, almust all from Ar;entina, ~cmc•u:utec"t to ()0 milli·Jn lC>UJJ.os, f'OS-l.tl - 11 - In lS~,Ji-IJ.7 (year bet;innine July), rroduction from domestic flaxseed probably •:ill not exceed. 350 ;-:illion -,:ouncs. This woulc meet less t:·1an half of the total dec1and for linseed oil. · :Je.'rta.n6. for ·linseed· and other dr~ring olls depenc;s c~Liefly on the. levels of inc:us"crh.: l ·,roduction and building l 1. activity. To neot the rrobable UniteC: States C.emand for linseed oil in 1946-47 imports of about 20 ~~1illion bushels of. flaxseed, or their equivalent in linseed oil, woul(~ be necessur~'' Present :i_ndica·d.ons point to la.r6er arrivals of linseed oil and flaxseed in lG'lE.\-47 than in 1D15-4G, '\:hen the equivalent of about 6 !:tillion bushels of flaxseed was imcorteC:.. But a hibh level is not lH.ely to be reached in view of the strong l:;uropean demand for oilseeds and oils, and the liuituc~ supplies oi' flaxseed and liaseed oil available for ex port in surplus-producini a.ree.s. Under a recent a.sreement reached bctv>'een the Argentine Go.vern':lemt and .. \ a oorrnittee roprcsentinc, the International :Gl:;.erL,ency Food Cou.."'lcil, Argentina would export before December 31, 1946, 120,000 lent; tons of linseed oil (equivalent to about 13 .rnillion bushels of SGeC:) out of present supplies. The United States allocation frmn this total is 32~000 lont; tons (approximately 70 tlillion pounc~s). As the e'laivalont of a~lOUt 10 ~-:1.illion bushels of flaxseed 'Nero exported in the i'irst half of 1946 J in the forT!l. either of oil or seed, exports oi' flaxseed o.n The seco:1cl official estimate of Ar,;enti:1e i'laxsead acreage indicates 5~0 n.i.llion acres soYcl this fall cornparecl 1nith 4.G million acres last year. '.Yi th avera.:;e ~dclds, '..;he cror to be harvusteC:. this conini_~ v..-inter v10uld be around 45 !"lillion bushels COf'luar·ed 1id tl'l 38 :llillion bushels last •·,inter and a prewar averat;e output of G7- million busJ:1els (1930-39 aver&t;e). Use of flaxsecC. in Art;cntine. new' 9.r:J.ounts to about 10 .nillion bushels annually (includins flt~xseeG. used for seed .and the flaxseed equivulent of linseed-oil consumption). :iith the carr~'-over into 19'17 of old-crop flaxseed anG. linseed oil likely to be relatively sHall, the exrortable surplus of fle.xseet. and linseed oil fro"n .:u· ,}::ntinu in 1947 ua:;' not be ·.r::ore than 40 : Exports of cunt; oil fro.~ Chinf', conti:1.ue relati vel~' snall. The total • from v-~T D~ Perilla oil was use of this oil (including perilla seed in terms of oil) avorat,;ed about 64 :nillion pounds annuall~ (1835-39). Virtue.ll~,. all oi' the v-;orld exports of peri.lla seed were fron ?/.anoimriu and Korea •. Thero is little p;.·ospeet for early rosw:1ptian of this· trade. SEPTllffiER 1946 12 Soybean·Prices ~ ~ontinue Relatively High; Demnnd, !£ Remain Strong Prices to farmer~ for soybeans :procluced in 1946 are to be su:oportecl 8.t the same level as e. year earlier 1 with a basic suD:ort of $2.0~- -per ·bushel for lir0. 1 or No. 2 green and yellow· soyoca.ns, 14 :percen.t mois+ure· cont~nt, norm. Present legis·latirm requires soy'to8.n prices to be sup:yort·ed at least at 90 percent of the corrrpa.rable ~price for two calendar years" after' the i-l'ar is offi- ' cic>.lly t1ec12.red ended. The period· of mandatory urice SU:Pl'ort 'llill carry through to January 1, 1949 ::1.t l.ea~t,. .. On: Aug1:st 15, 1gu6~ the C0ril})a:eaole ~odci=J· o:f;'. soy·~ beans was $1.96 per 'bushel •. i'li th the general level of prices exp~cted to a.dvancla in. comins months, it. is likely thAt the cor.~paraole price of soybeans' at· the oegi~' nin;g Of tpe 1947 harvest . . . Ho substantial s11rnlus in soybenns is likely to develop durin[.; the next 2 years, even 1,vith acreage maintained at the present level, except in the event of a severe business recession in the United States. The outlook .for a con-- tinued strong demand for _soy'bennE~ is ba"'ed on severnl factors. The level of consumer incone in the United Stc>,tes is so high th8.t a substantial decline would leave inco";e still well-aoove-the :rrew2.r .-leak .. reached in 1941. Demand for soy- e 'bean rr:eal for feed in the t:inited State,s hl'l,s increased CJ,S a result of greatl,v e:X:,Jand.er1. u.'se, .vrith favorabieresults, during the war. tvorld. export su:rYolies of oils and fr-:ts are not likely to ret'tll'n to the ure1,var level oefore 1949 or 1950. ·As. long as Manchurian _soyoeans remain unootainable in vterlc1 market's, a uoten- tially strong ·ex_Jort cLemand for United St.,.,tes soybeans is likely. • · · Peanut Prices to be- Su-onortecl at HiF~h Lev_el~ . Some Decline j_n Demand Likely e Prices to farmers for :Jeanuts ;;r0duced in 1946 vrill 'be su_o·Jortcd ::>.t an ave:>:> Consu.o"'lption of peanuts in peanut 'butter, salted. peanuts, candy, and oa}{:ory goods has teen at a high J.eve1 since the 'beginninc: of the l'mr. Oi vilian consLll!i_ption of these pr_oducts in the crop years 191..!.2-45 ave~:.ae;ed. 6.,3 :9ounds per person CO::l}')ared with .an aver.:'.ge of 4 .• 6 Dounds :per :person in· 1937-41. This increase, '!trhich occurred despite a rise. of over 100 percent· 'in the price received · 'by farmers for ~)eanuts, :prob~1'blj- was di1e to suostitution of :oeanuts for ~carce foods, rl.S. well as to the 1;\fartime increase in consUJ!ler inco,::es .. Pen.hut butter apparently h..c"l.S been used to some ex9ent R.s a su'bstitute for butter and meat, particularly in sandwiches. Use of :peanut;s in candy o.~ Civilian consumption of edible :pc~mut proG.ucts in the 1945 crop year is .. estimated to h:::.ve been equivalent .to 6J) pou_n.cis of shelled peanuts per person, o~oedingthe previous hif~h reached. in ljll2. HoFevl'?r. stocks of cleaned and shelled pe.?.nuts incren.sed c:bou:t 80 million -pounds (farmers' stock equivalent), partly O.S a rF·SUl t of rt sl'larp. decline in ·;diitar~r procurewent of pea:nut products. With the high support ·price :fbr the 1946- crop, large stocks of cleaned and shelled peanuts oh hfmcl at the beginning of the crop year, and a likelihood of some decline in ~-deme.nd for -peanut proc{uct s as substitutes for· scarce foods, clean- . 'in:; .~md shelling of pennuts may d.ecline in the 1946 crop year. In that e1rent, the llUt:lnti t-y of peanuts remaininf; for diversion to crushing for oil or for export would be increased in 1946-47. Prides t.o farr1err, for peanuts harvested in 1947 are likely to be deter wined by the support level. Since parity prices probably will show an upward trend in coming months, th6 f4u:pport price for peanuts in 1947-48 is likely to be higher than it is this ~?.eason. D~=!mnnd for peanut pro1ucts, however, may decl be further in 1947-48, pa-rtic.uk.rly if there is a busi:xress. recession in that period. Flaxseed Prices Highest in 26 Years; Demand Stro:ilg · ~ ...... -·. . . FollovTi.ng t:f+e lapse of price c_ont.rcls7 June 30, flaxseed prices rose from the ceilin;<; of 83 .. 35 :per 'bushel (il<~inneapolis basis) to $).80 per bushel in July 'and to s4.oo per bushel in AU5';U~t' the high.es.t since .-Hay l320. A new ceiling price, at $4.00 per bushel, Hinneapol~·s., 1rras established Sept;ember 9. Prices-6f flaxseed:durins the-'1946-47 m.arketi~g._year.p~·ouaoly.will be main t~'-ined ::::.t. cE:ilirigs by stronr: demand for d:::-yin~ oiL ih the U:ni ted S.tates in con junction with ou;r ·relativel~r small 1946. cfop:~~d •. lim-ited·'!Jro·rld .suppl-ies of dry ing oils. ·The su~·port :price for 1946-crop fiaxse~d is Si3~ 6o: per bushel, ., ~Hnnefl.polis basis., . . . , • , ....• , .. , ....• ··.A supportt:pricP of S4~c'·O per bushel (Mi~nee.polis basis). 11T~S recently announced for flaxseed produced in 1947. At the. sam~ time,.;~ tentative goal e. of 4.Iilillion plo.nted n.crt·)s for the 1947-crop·vr.ts.announced.l!. W.nh an average yield of flaxseed per acre on this acreafe, the 1947.crop ~ould provide appro;c:Luately 550' million p~rurids of lins.eed oil •.. Prewa_r an.11ual consumption of •• .lin~eed.·_oil.,. inGlud.:l,Y+g _q.i:J, _pl~Qd_:uced from imrorted fla:J 1/ Su~gested goals for flaxseed acreages in the winter planting States are as follows: . Arizona, 25 )000, 79 :percent rr.ore than last year; California, 160,000, 51 percent more thar. larct year; and Texas, 120,000, up 43 percent fror: last year. SEFTENI3ER 1946 - 1'1- RECENT DEVSLOPMENTS Prices of Domestic Fats Dovm in September II But ?>5 ~rcent above ~Tune The in:iex number of wholesale prices of 8 donBstic fats and oils de clined in the first half of September to 212 percent of the 1935-39 average compared with 160 re rcent. in ~Tune, 219 percent in lTuly, and 240 percent in August. 'l'he decline from J.ugust to early September reflected reestablish ment of price ceilings on edible fats and oils other than butter. Tho do clire in J.::crd prices was particula:r.1y starp, vvith the Chicago quotation fell in:~ from 32. S cents per pound in .'l.ugust to the new ceiling level of 18.3 cents in eady September. Ihe index number was 33 percent hi~;her in the first half of September ttan in June as a rosult of highor butter prices . and higher ceiling pricc.:s on lard and linseed oil. The new lard ceiling is 4o2S cents (50 percent) higher than the June 30 ceiling. Tablo3 .,-Wholesale price per pound of specified fats and oils, ls.te September 1946, comp::trocl ifith earlier pcricds ~ i · : : Early :. Late Item : June 1946: July 1946:August l946iSeptembcr:SoptembeJ ~ ; : 1916 : 18 46 : Cents Cents Cents Cents .• Butter, 92-score, Now York : 52.2 69 .. 4 70.5. 75.0 Lard, prime steam, tiorces,: Chicago ••• a ••••• ~ •••• ~ o. •: 14.0 22.0 Cottonseed oil, crude, : Southwestern nti.lls ...... : 12.. 6 15.6 Inedible tallow, No. 1, Ch:Lcago • ., o. o o ••••• ••••• ,. " : 8. 4 11,8 8o4 Linseed oil, drum.s, New York•••••o•Q••••·••••••o•: 15,.5 17 ~6. 16.8 16 .. 8 18.8 Menhaden oil, light, rofimd No1v York."' ••••••••••.•••• •: 15.4 1.3.0 Coconut oil, l,;Janila, crudo : Pacil'ic Coast y ... ., ..... :· 11.0 11.0 11.,0 11.1 11.1 1./ In store, soll.Jrs' tanks. Adjust.:::d to allow for tax of 3 cents per pound ' on first domestic procossin~s• * Includln.o; increase of l. 75 cents recommended b~r the SecretP.ry of Agricultt,.re in late September, but not immediately in effec.t., :1 Govornmcmt Purchases Srna."11 ; n August Contracts for government purchaso of fats and oils· in AuguE>t comprised 8 million pounds (fat content) of ll'.arcarine and 7 niillion pounds of coconut oil. This vras tho smallest monthly purchas'; s:Lncu October 1845. Total pur chases in January-August 1946 woro 387 million pounds compa.rud w:Lth 373 mil lion pounds a yoar earlier. •. F0&-111 - 15 Copra Agreement~ Signod with Philippine Republic and 1\oth:::rlands :Sast Indies In an agroo.m.ent with th;; r:nitcd States Govornrnont signod August 8, tho Philippine Govcrn,."TX.n1.t agreed to sell .to Comrnodi ty Crodit Corporation or its dcsignetJs tho ontirc cxportablo surplus ·of copra and coconut oil during the yo~ beginning July 1, 1946. Bulk prices f.o.b. the Philippines wore fixod at $103.50 :[Xlr long ton for copra and 7.125 cents per pound for coconut oil. Tho Philippine Government vvill grant. export licenses only to countries ·with allocations from tho 1ntornational Err.;;rgency Food Council. Purchases for:puch countries otD.or than tho United States will be I!l.ade by CCC or its designees.. United Statos imports of copra will be macie by private firms under :import-license- control. : An agrecmunt ·vdth,tho N;:;thvrlands Indios Govornmont similar to the Philippine agrooront was c ignod August 15. 'Ibis agreement is effective for ·one year beginning September 1, 19t.16. Dn:lor this agreement, tho price stip... ulated for copra is $110.25 JX;r short ton c.i.f. Pacific Coast ,ports; which · is equivalent to the f •. o~ b. prico specified in tho Philippine a grcoment. Tho Netherlands Indios Govornmont a 61'003 to encourage production, procurement, and export of copra. In return tho United States Governmunt agrees to help obtain priorit:i.us for trade goods a."'ld needed equipment and to help in finding personnel arrl supplies for rchabD.itatmg tho small-boat buildmg industry in tho Netherlands Indios. CCC vlill advc:mco money for purchases of trade goals and supply. Ropaymont vd.ll b.:J made from receipts from t :00 sale of copra. Tho Noth:.;rlands Indios Government ostimat,;d that the agreement would makg possi'~le nn amort of at least 300,000 long tons of copra (equivalent to about 420 million pounds of coconut o:il) by next September 1. Most of tho prov.-ar exports from the Zast Indios ;;mnt to Europ;. Tho current supply is subject to IEFC allocation. Production Prospects Lc7.·v'orcd in August f01.,. Soybeans, Peanuts, and Cottonseed; Improvud for :•1 axsood Favorable v;onth.:.;r during August for mD.turing the flaxseed crop and for harvesting operations resulted in nn increase in ir.dicatod production from 21.9 million bushcJ.s !mgust 1 to 22.8 million bushels September 1. Growing conditions in tho C ottonsoGd, peanut, and soybuml. areas vrorc variable, but thoro '~>ietS a not reduction in prospective output of oa.ch of those crops. ' Tho September 1 indications -v 1/ ~ on f~roc~t or oot~ production as~i~ ~yoar QVorago ratio of c.otto~.d to cotton lint. \, SEPTEMBER 194 6 - 16 - Table 4 .- Oilseods: Yield pO}.' aero and Drodu ct ion, 19 41-46 -.------:--,-- : Il~ld per a.ort: '!/ .• : Product..i. on : : .• 8 Commodity . Unit, .• ' .• . Indi- .• Unit I ••: .• Indi- .• 19..:14 .. : 1945 : cated ... . . 1944' . 1945 . c:1tod : .. : • 19·16· ·• ·: 1946 . . ~---- .• .• · Soybeans .• Bu •. l8o5 17.6 19•4 ' 1\f.d.l. bu. 190.4 191.7 lG3~4 ., : 1. Flaxseed· .• tl 7.7 9.0 8.,4 11 II 25.1 56o7 22.8 : Cottonseed ..• Lb. 482 413 408 1000 T. 4902 36b4 5732 •" • Peanuts • " 670. 641' 648 Mil.1b. 2111 2062 2057 ·'2 .• e 11 Soybeans, per e. ere hai'ircsted for barns; flaxsceq, per acre plal1ted; cott onsocd, p-.::r aero of cotton in cultivation July 1; peanuts, per acre picked and threshed.;· GOVEENM3NT ACTJ01JS ·Price Coilin -(s Reesta_b1is~1od on Mo3t Fats, Oils, Oils coda, and Oilseed 1\'h_als · The Price D;controJ. Boord mmounccd Aufsll.Gt 21 tho.t price ceilings wore to be reestablished on fa to and oiL:;, oils.eods, and oilsood Eloals. Butter, hov10vor, ·,tas exomptod for t.h:.: t:im0 being from price control, togothor v-ii th othur dciry products~ Ceilings _on prices of _£ern oil, ronnut oil, and inediblu fo.ts and oils had been rostorod in lato July, vrhcn tho Price Control 1h:tens{on Act vr.:1s signed by tho Prosidont.. l~hxi.'Tillm pric.:.;s of linseed, coconut,. an~ castor _oils ho.vo boon incro<1sod from tho Juno 30 luvol. .;· ·t' I.ri •mendmont 65 .to Maximum Price Ho6U1ation 53, effective July 31, the coilinG for linseed oil vm.s incre3.sod 1~3 cents per '"OUnd to 15.8 cents (tcll1k·cars, c1elive:;."'d, MinmapoJ~is) •. A ·further incre&IJO in the coi1ing'vras J !i'.D.dc Se:ptombur 18 by .:..mcnd.m ..;nt 71, bl~j_rigjng tho m2x:inum to 17.8 cents. In addit-ion, ·Order 35 to MPR 53, effective Svptom".Jor 20, p:nmits dolj.. vory of linseed oil prior to October 7..<-~t <::. pricu to bo adjusted upv-raid after delivery ih accordmco with c: ction th.il t may be tclkon by tho Office of Price administra tion upon corcploti on of ntudy of flaxscod crusher~ 1 _c~psts •. . . .. Order 33 also permit::; doliv~ry of ·Pncif:!.c CoQ.~1t s.ardino ·oil :until October. 7 subjr:ict to up~;mrd adj-i.1str.i.ant 'in price. if coilirgs -o.ro rn:is®d upon completion of n study of costs in tho pilchr.rd procossir1g industry. · A1aondmont 67 to MPR 53, cffoctivo Aueuat 26, increased r:Ja:;dmum prices e for crude Manila coconut oil by 0.06 cent per pound (to 8.06 cents, coi.f. Pacific Coast ports) and for Philiopino copra by 50 cents por ton (to $110.25 per short ton, c. i. f. Pacific Coast ports). These increases were made to off- set increased ocee.n freight rates. - 17 - Ceilinc; prtces for castor oil ·v;ero incr·ot>.sed G,2 conts per ponnu, e.nc. thoso for castor beans $47 per lon;::;-ton, by Ar1enw•~e,1t 72 to f.~H ~>3, effective Soptenber 18. ~he new ::la.Xinmm rrices per pound for• custor oil, tunkcar ·lots, revr York, are as follm•s: No. 1, 19.50 conts; IJo. 3,19~20 cen~s; dei•:rdra.tcd, bodieJ, 2f1.39 cents. The rwv! Elaxim.U1r: for castor boans is $1G5.00per lone ton, c.i.i'. port of al'rival~ Atlantic ol' G-ulf Coast. These oeilin~;s are eqniva.le::1t to ;;rices being paid for castor beans in Dl'azil, the chiof f.:Ource oi' world supplies • .&: price ceiling of 9.125 cents per potmd vras establisi1ed on Septe:·1ber 23 fol' all sales of acidloss tflllow oil or ncic~less tallow to soap :lEln'J.f'o.cturers. This action was ta"Ken hf 1~enclirl"ent"' 10 to£.'lPFf'""ss. ------ ~ . Mtng pl'ices for cottonseed anc~ soybean oils in tank-car lots wox·e ros·:-ored \ on .August 23 at the June-30 leveT:-c"CTEno;s·oorCfiued cottonseed and so~·boan oil~:. in tankoe.T lots were reestablished Aut_;ust 2~, ut levels slit ht1y hi(;;her t:.an on June 30. An upward adjustnent in ·naxi;au;r;.s for refined peanut oil also vms ef !'ecti ve August 23. These increases were m.acie '.Jy Amendeentoo·"-f'o'1f.J'H. 53 in con- Aro.rnance with section 6(c) of the, Price Control Extension Act, v:id.ch req11.ired Wrestoration of the full amount of previous 11 roll•bac:-::s 11 • A subsidy of 0.5 '. cent per pound vras paid "'Go refiners uurint; the 18·:~2-•13 cro_? Y'Jflr, and uhen the subsidy was terr11inated.t nrices of refined oil l.nd rc.Cinod·oil nroducts we1·e not increased by the full u.S cent per _?Ctmd. A few typical ceilin:;s effective Au~ust 23, 1946 for spccifiec' refined olls rc11C: co•1parisons wi tl1. the Ju,1c 30 ce~lings are as follows, in cents per pound (t.ank car lots). Aut;us t 23~ ~une 30 Cottonseed oil, bleached prine sw-•uer, yelloV";r, IJ. y • •...... •••...... · ... •. • ... · · · · • • 14.53 1'1.:31 Cot.tonseed oil, vrl.:tlterized (salad oil), H. Y••••••• " •• ,. l5c.51J 15.10 Peanut oil, ci.eo New cai'!inr.; prices 0:1 rrocessors' snlos of shortenint;~r.Jtn·sarinep se.lad oi.ls, and cookins:; oils_ packa-t;ad in drums or ~las.ller co:1U1ners oocar.re-eiTsctive-- ·~-· . AUGUSt 30. YThese ugxirturns,estahlished b~r Al.'lenclmcnt 66 to :JPR 53, r..re o.G to 0.6 cent per po\lncl above June 30 coilint;s. Nev: processors' FtaxL-,lur.ts for SEt lad Ad.z:e_ssinG and na yonnais~,at 2 to 4 cents per t;allon over the June 30 ceilincs ,also Wbecame ei'fecti ve Aucust 30. Theso coilint;s v.rE:re sot forth in A.mend;:tent •U to Second ReYised Sup?le·.~entary ReEulation 14 to t!o.e Ge.:1eral ifuxiJ•tUla Price Het,ulation. Ceilinc prices on :)ackers 9 sales of edible tullow, oleo' oil and oleos.tearine in tank c&rs wore restored Septe:"'lber 1 at Jtme 3-0 levels o --rJ'encoilinc prices for lard, 4.2~ cents per pound over the June 30 leveln, \Jere established· on Serte;,tber • TOy Amendment 69 to .EPR 53. rhe new qaxirm11:1 for prime stoam lurd in tierces at Chicago ("cash" larC.) is 18.30 cents 1~er poun June 30 ceilings v.rere restored, el'i'ecti ve Sep to:.1ber 3. on soybeans and on soybean. cottonseeli and linsoe AWI' "'"f'll ::1 OFA Pre-ss Helease ()727, de~ ted Au:.;ust 21. SEPTEMBER 1946 - 18 -, Table 5 .- Imports and exports of fats, oils, oil-bearing materials in terms of oil, and fat-and-oil products, 1937-46 : Imports for consumption Exports 1/ 1 Jan.-June Item 1Average 1 Jan.-June 1Average 1 1 1937-41" I 1945 : 1945 I 1946 11937•41 1 1946 I 1945 I 1946 I I I .2/ I I I I 2/ 1 Mil. lo.1ftl,lb. Mil.l~. Mil.lb. Mil.1bo Food fats ·and" oils ., ------~·~·~· Butter ...... ~ ...... : 3.8· 3."7 y. .1 9.5 Y41,4 !/18.4 Yl6,5 Lard ...... , y .2 .2 ; y 272,7 563.8 393.8· 3;1.1.6 Oleo oil ...... ·...... , · 3.8 .2 y y Oleo stock ...... o1 2,9 3/ -.-- Stearine, animal, edible ...... , 1,0 .2 .2 .3 "'!// 3/ . y Tallow, edible ...... ·...... 2.9 1.7 1.7 .2 "'t/ "'tj 3.5 Total, edible animal fats ...... "---;-,7,..•.,7,.--..,,..5-r._s __ o:-2..-•-'1'----''-'l.c.--_2_8 _9 '.;.,4..-__60'-5'-';..,4,--_4..;.12.;..·~2.--~'-3"-31..;.';-,;.6 Cornoil ...... ·...... 14.2 .Y 3/ .3 .2 .1 ,3 Cottonseed oil ...... o1 72.1 33.5 T4.5 _.,_, 11.0 ... 11.1 5,9 1.1 Cottonseed (15.5 percent) ...... •I · y y '· 1.0 1.0 1.1 Olive oil, edible ...... : .48.5 9;9 7.6 ,3 .1 3/ 3/ Peanut oil ...... s 16.1 y'_ · 2,4 .4 ::1.1 ::1.2 :Peanuts, shelled (39 percent) ...... 19.6 11.2 Y, *' ·Sesa:rn~,oil.••.•••••••"••••••••o••••••••••••;~ •••• a 9.9 3/· • Sesame_· S'e_ed (47 percent) ...... ' 4.8 .• 3 y ~.6 Soybean oil ...... 1 7 .o y 10.5 40.5 20.6 36.5 Soybeans (15 percent) ••••••••••••.••••••••••••• • 30.9 62.2 24.0 7.5 Sunflower oil •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 1 ,8 85.5 55.3 .5 21 44.1 30.8 5·,o Tease ad oil •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 1 10.0 .1 Vegetable oils, shipments to u.s. territories ••'--~~-r--~~rr--~~~--~~--~~Br.~5~~~w7~·T8 __-.;.,~4~·~2~-~3~,5~ Total, edible ve·getable oils ...... '';...· _1:;.8:....;3:....;'..c;4'----"-14_7:...•c..;9___ s'-8:..••6~-:...2~·:...;7~--;;.63:..•:....;6;.....;_.:;.16'-7:...:..:4~-8.:,;6c..••9~--5:;.6:..•;..:;..2 Soa:p fats· and oils s Fish oils •••••••••••••••••••••••••••~••••••: ••• , 2.6 8.0 2.8 2.7 16.9 4.1 3.4 Greases •••••••••.••e•••••••••••••••••••••••••····' . y 4.5 6.8 3.7 2.6 1darine ID.aiiimal oils •••••••••••••••••••• ,· ...... 1 25.4 .3 .3 2.9 13.4 10.0 .2 Olive oil "foots" •••••• ~ •••••• , •••••••••••••••• : 20.2 .3 .l y Olive oil, inedible ...... : ...... ,. 5.5 .1 ,l 3/ 3/ 3/ :;-' · Palm oil ...... , 301.2 66.1 52.4 !'7.4 17.3 !'7'.7 !'1·.5 6.0 Tallow, inedible ...... ·...... 7.7 32.0 30.6 2.3 1.5 6.2 3.6 4.2 Total, slow-lathering oils ··················l--~3"6~2r.<6~-r~1~3r.<6.---.9~.lr.~4~~2~2~.~ar-~z~s~.~-9r---~6~1r.~3~--3"'3~.~o~---l~6~.-r4 Babassu oil ...... 1 .4 3.8 · 2 .o 1.3 Babassu kernels (63 percent) ••••••• ;.·,;, ...... , 48.9. 46.3 . 26.• 0 . .20.6. Coconut oil ...... ,.... , ..., •.• ~ ...... 1 362.8 34.0 24.7. .9 33.4 .1 41.2 Copra {63 percent) ...... , ...... , 335.9 149.1 95.1 · 1 144.0 21 .a Murumuru kernels (36"pe'rcent) §/ ;,,; .. ; .. ;.'ol•"•l 1.2. .4 ,;J_ y Palm-kernel oil •••• ,·•.•.•••••••••.• , •.•• ••••• , •.•:. •! 28.8 Palm-nut kernels (45 percent) ••••••••••••••••··• 14.8 37.3 28.7 y Tucum ken1els (43 percent) •••••••••••••••••••••'-~u2~·~4--~r.5r·~9~_,.,.·~7,_~~-1~·~9.-~~.r------,---~T------r-~ Total lauric-acid oils ••••••••••••••••••••••l--~79~5~·~2~~27~6~··8~~17~.7~··3~~1~68~.7~-~6~1~.2~---~·l~--~3/~----~41~.2 Drying oils · 1 Flaxseed (34 pl)roent) ...... , ...... 1 351.7 72.3 48.8 41.9 • .2 y .3 Linseed oil ..• •••, .••. ~. ••••••. ••• ••• •••••..••.• t .1 79,0· .6e3 .32.7 3.3 31.9 5.3 26.1 Oiticica oil ...... - ... ~ 16.0 21.6 .8.5 6,5 Perilla oil ...... · ...... 1 28.9. y Perilla seed (37peroent) .... ~ ...... , .5 --·- 4 Tun;o~!i, • ~;;.1~ ~ ~i.i~::::::::::::::::::::::::::: ::·::!:~~~~:"';;.6=-=1~7,;;.3~::~.....,6::;;3~.;,:6;____:8~;~:.::~--.:::.:.;:~~--3::;;;~:;.;;~;__-.:!~:::.: __,:.26:.::.::.: Other industrial oils and fats s Cashe:w nut shell liquid (oil) ...... : 2. 7 .3. .1. 1.5 Castor oil ...... ; ..· ...... : ...... : .5 1.7, .• 9' 3.3 1.0 .a. 1.2 Castor :be!'n~ (45 pE)roent) ...... ; ... 1 96,0 137.0 76.8 57,6 Fish-liver oils ... ~·.·...... 4_6 .• 7 22.3 11.7 12-.4 1.7 5.2 Japan wax (tallow) ...... · ...... ,": 3.0 Neat•s;.foot oil ...... , ...... ,.. .7 .5 .1 .6 .2 y ,'3 •• Rapeseedoil ...... : 10 •. 3 ,17.7 8,8 L3. .7 .4 1.5 Vegetable tallow ...... c 2.7 .3 y ;5 Wool._grease ,...... , ...... 1 3.0 1.3 .3 1.0 Oth,er vegetable oils an~ fats • ; ; ~ ••••••••••••• ~•---,.,.,-o...;..T.:;;l~·~3---,ai'=-i7!--__;._-m;;.'~2-.....;1;:,;3;.:·~·2;----2=5-·=-:·7~. ----;2;.:·~0~.---'._,.•:.;.3 •· T<'rti.al", other industrial ...... • ...... : __1:;.6:;.;3c..;'.;;9....._,...: :;.l8'-"2'-:' • .o;;·6---9~9~·~8:...... _7~7:...;'~9~-~l4:;.•~8~-_.;8::;;•:.;6~-:--4::;;•:,:9:.._...,..._.;8::.;•:.::.5 Me.nut;actured products (fat content) ·I Margarine iJ ...... ·...... •I 11 ••. ·49' ---- . ~ 1.3 64.5 29 •.8 17.6 Shortening ••••••••••••••••• ; ; ••• ; •••••••••••••• 1 ;' Y,;: y !{ a.o 20.6 13.9 9.5. Soap ••••••••• , ~ •••••••••••••••••· ••••••••••••••• a Tota 1, manufactured products •••••••••••••••• 1?7-ri~r:-ii~,_·_:~: ~ir:'il·~,-;:_·._ ..""'i:'7ii-· -·~·iir:~~;--;;:~~g~::.;.~;-· ..,-;;,l~iii~~:~~f---;;:~~l;.:::.;~;---~*;.;i<-=:~~ Grand total 8 ...... , 2,..016.7 '901.6 523.0 361.1 506.3 1,029;7 608.9. 552•5 Compiled from Monthly Summary of Fore gn Commerce o t e Uni'ted Sta·t·es, records o the Bureau of t e Census, and reports of the u. s. Department of Agriculture. The following items are not included above: Procurement by t.he,Ai'my for civilian relief and by the American Red Cross, January-December 1945, 68 million pounds of lard~ 14 million pounds of edible oils, 3 million-pounds of margarine (fat content), and 8 million pounds of soap (fat content)l January-June 1945, 65 million pounds of lard, 3 million pounds of margarine (fat content), and 7 ~l[lion P,Ounds of ~oap (fat content); January-June 19_46, 16 million pounds of lard and 9 million pounds of. shortening and ea:ible ·oils (preliminary). · · 1/ Includes shipments to u. s. territories of butter, lard, and manufactured productsl ree~orts of coconut, palm, and tung oils, olive-oil foots, and copra; and reexports in 1945 and 1946 of certain quantities of whale oil, linseed oil, and sunflower oil reported in imports for consumption. Shipments include special programs of USDA in 1945. 2/ Preliminary. 3/ Less than 50,000 pounds. 4/ Includes actual weight of butter· oil and spreads (Army). These were-not reported separately prior to 1945. 2/ Not reported separately. '2./1937-41, 35 percent. '!./Imported margarine goes largely to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. y Computed from unrounded numbers. r·os-111 - 19 - Table 6.- Fats and oils: Factory production frO!:). dor.~estic n.."ld imported !l'.e:teri&.ls, Janua:y-July 1945 arid 1946; and factory and ~~rehouse stocks ~t enc ot nonth, July 1945, June a:::d J·.!ly 1:?46 Production Stocks (crude basis) January- January- Items grouped by major use July :n. : June 30, July 31, July July 1945 1946 1946 1945 1946 :Million Million 1Jillion Million Million pounds pounds pounds pounds pounds Food fats and oils Butter 1/ ...... , ...... : .906.9 664.5 184.8 49.6 70.1 Lard and rendered pork tat y ...... : 775.1 824.5 105.0 39.9 50.4 Oleo oil, edible animal stea.rine. and edible tallow •••••••••••••••• :_,...,...~1;;;;2,;.:7.:..4:;---...... ,..,;7,;;:0.:.• 6~----=~1;;;;9~·~2-----.~4~.... 6 ___...,.,6.-·,.5....-- •••· J Total edible anllDal fats ••••••• :_...;1:::.•!!.;8;.,;6;,;9;.:•..;;4__ --:1:.!1.~5.;5,;.9.:.,•6;;----3.:.,0:-;9;,.:•:.;0:----.;;;94;.;.:.•.;1 _____::1.;2.;7.:.•0;;;-- Corn oily ...... · ••••••• ~ ..... : 133.5 ·103.1 19.6 20.6 22.9 Cottonseed oil!( ••••••••••••••••••= 674.4 418.3 351.5 364.5 306.7 Olive oil. edible ...... ·.: 4.0 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.8 Peanut oil!( ••••••••••••••••••••••& 72•8 60.7 51.8 44.6 43.5 Sesameoil•·•••••••••••••••••••••••l 1.7 .2 .1 Soybean. oil 4/ ...... :._...... ,..8;;;4..;;0.:.•7,:---...... ;8;,;8:i8.:.•3:;----_:;2<;3;.;;2,;.•,;.8---..;;2;.;6;,;1;.:•.;3----2::.,5;.,6;;.;.;,6~- Total edtble vegetable oils· •••• : __1.:.•:..7;.;;2;.;;5..;;•..:;4 __ _:.1;.::•..;;4.;.7.;.2.:..•4'"----6.:.5:..9;.;;'..;;2 ____ 6..:;9.;.3.;.'.;.0 ____:.6.;.3.:;;1_.6 __ Soap fats and oils Tallow, inedible •••••••••••••••••••= 540.7 553.5 118.1 118.4 124.8 Grease, excluding wool grease ······I 310.1 318.3 75.0 -84.2 96.8 Pa.lm oil !;/ ••.•.•... ~ ...... ••.•.... : 71.2 22.1 20.3 Fish oil ...... •...... •.•••..... : 39.8 42.2 60.1. 38.3 63.7 Marine ~1 oil ••••••••••••••••••' 24.8 10.4 9,3 Olive oil. inedible and foots ...... =---;;;S.fri/r;;------..:ors/...... -:...-----~lr-:•";8:------r:-;;7.;.•~6-----.;,...,..;..'6~- .Total slow-lathering oils •••••• :___ 8;.;9~0,_.;'..;;6 ___ __;;9~1~4.:...o~---3;;.,5;;.;lr-:•;.,;o;.;;_ ____;;2~7.;;4,;.•~0---....;;3.:;1~5.;•5~- Baba.ssu oil !/...... : 2J §I 11.1 8.7 8.2 Coconut ·oil !/ ...... , ...... : 98.0 139.8 124.4 96.4 102.2 Pa.lm;~:~eia~~o¥acld • ~ii; •::::::::: :---.l.;;;~,...:.:.::~----.1"'3"'9-.8~--.;;.t/~l,.;;~;.;.;,;.:~~----=l,..i;;~:.:.:~;----l;-ii:-;~;,.::~:"--6 Drying oils 1· Castor oil, dehydrated!/ ••••••••••I 38.3 19.5 8.4 7.1 5.5 Linseed oil_, •••••• , ...... : 242.9 352.3 145.4 115.5 121.8 Oiticica oil •••••••••••••••••••••••' 7.7 5.3 5.3 ·Perilla oil ••••••••••':. •••• ••••• •••• : .1 .1 .1 Tung oil ·••••••••••••••••••••••••••' 8.0 5.6 12.9 7.3 9.1 Total drying oils •••••••••••••·=----~2~8~9~.;.;2~----3~7~7~.4~----,1~774~.5~------.1~3~5~.i3------l~4~lr.~8~-- Other industrial Neat•s-foot oil • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • I 1.5 1.1 1.9 .9 .9 Wool grease ••••••••••••••••••••••••= 10.5 11.3 2.9 6.6 6.5 Cod oil and fish-liver oils ...... : 4.2 3,"4 13.3 10.2 10.9 J: Cas~or oil, No. 1 and No. 3 y .... .: 54.1 35.3 11.9 9.4 8.9 Ra.peseedoil ...... : 18.2 8,5 7.3 •• Other vegetable oils •••••••••••••••=----~3~1~·~2,______3~4~·~6.------n4 75.;...8~----~l~O..;;.~l~------n7~.~7~-- Total •••••••••••••••••••••••···=-----1.;..0~1.;..•~5;.;;______8.;..5~,7-----....;;9.:;4~.0.:.______;;4~5:.:.•:.:.7 ______4~2~.~2~-- : Grand total~ •••••••••••••••••= 4.549.0 1.750.7 1,378.9 Compiled from reports of the Bureau of the Census. except a.s noted, Data. include stocks held by the Government in reported positions. 1/, Creamery butter p~oductian and cold-storage stocks, u. s. Department of Agriculture. !(. Preliminary. . 3/ Federally inspected produet~on, USDA. · Y Stocks, crude oil plus refine'd oil converted to crude basis, by dividint; by the fo11m•Jing factors; Baba.ssu. corn, cottonseed, palm. and palm-kernel oils. 0.93; coconut, peanut, and soybean oils, o.~~. 2./Incl'uded in "Other vee;etable oils 11 • 6/ Crude only. 1{. Converted to crude basis b~ dividing by 0.88, 8/ Estimated quantity used in manufacture of dehydrated castor oil excluded from production. "!J Computed from unrounded numbers. SEPTE?.!BER 1946 - 20- Table 7 .- Production and stocks of shortening, and production, withdrawals for consumption and export, and llf1.terials used in manufacture of oleo:rmrgarine, United States, January-June 1945 and 1946. SEORTENING ------~----Jm1e ------~~1~9~4~6~1~;------~J~an-ua__ r_y--~J~un--e ______Item ~--l;~-5-- ·- _Ma_y_;:;.:..:;.:...;;.J..._Ju-·n_e_ 1945 1946 Y 1 :1,ooo pounds i,ooo pounds i,ooo pounds 1,000 uounds l,OOO pounds Production •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• : 105,160 123,847 103,861 745,573 574,284 Factory and warehouse stocks, end of month 46,029 46,233 45,868 OLEOMARGARINE ,, Production: Colored ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••= 13,578 2,149 4,597 49,211 16,717 Uncolored ••••••• , , •••••••••• ·••••••••• , • '·-~~3~5~, 0,-.,4;:,4ii----.....:;3..;;8,.<:.'..;;8~20->:-----;3;.;1~,~4;;;3,.;;5----.;2;;,7o-;5~,:..;4;.;1;.:;5,..---2;;:.4~4~,~0:,;5r,8;,..... _ Total '!:J •• , •.•. , , •• , .• , ••.••••••.••• :. ___4::.;8::.!,~6.::.2::;.2 ---'-· 4::.;0~·:.:9~6.::.9 ___3::;.6::-'•!..:0:.:3.::.2 ___.::,3::;.24::;.,!..:6:.:2~4:.__ _ _.::.2.::.60~,7:..:7~5;._ Materials used: Cottonseed oil •••••••••••••••••••••••••= 143,910 101,508 Soybean oi 1 ••••.....•.•. , • , .•...... •.•. : 99,032 96,295 Peanut oil •• , ••. , , . , .. , •• , ·..•.••••. ,. 4.: 4,274 7,964 Corn oil •.••••.•...... •..•...•.. : 4,839 3,826 Cottonseed flakes ••••••• , •••••••••••••• : 18 8 Soybean stearine •••••••••••••••••••••••= 15 1 Soya flakes ••.•.. , ..•..•..•••.....•...• : 34 5 Total, domestic vegetable ••••••••••• : ____~~~-----~~~- 209,607 Sunflovver oil •..• , ...... ••...•..•.....• : 6 Total, forei111 ''egetable •••••••••••• : 6 Total fats and oi 1s •••••••• , , ••• , ••• : ___3.:.:.9!.., 1.:.7:..;0:.._ ___;:;.;.!..:.:.::;._ __ _:~::::.::._ __...:2:.:6::.:3:,.,,:.:3:.:0:.:0__: _ __::.::.::.!.::.:..::__212,888 Milk •••••..•••.•.•••..•.••••.•.•..•..•• : 44,112 ,f Salt· ••••••••••• ,., •••••••••••••••••••••• : 8,076 Derivative of glycerin ...... : 509 Lectthin ...... •...... : •314 ,,., Monostearihe •••••••••••• , ••••••••••••.• : 196 Soda (benzoate of) •••••••••••.••••••••• : 178 ~~ Vitamin concentrate •••. , •••••••.••••••• : 50 Color ...... ~ 13 54 8 53,51C Total, e.11 materials ...... : 49,516 266,398 Cor.1piled from reports of the Bvresu of the Census and from Internal Revenue Bulletin. 1 1 Pre limine.r;:r. ;I Total of unrounded numbers. FOS-111 - 21 - Table 8 .- Supply and disposition of' fats an~ oils, by o!'.1endar ;:ears, 1937-46 nne production of fats and oils from domestic naterials, year beginning October,l937-46 Supply anc disposition, calendar year 1 Average, Item 1942 1S43 1944 1945 al946(partly 1937-41, 1 : s forecast) Mil. lb.Mil. lb. Mil. lb. Mil. lb. Mil. lb. I•il. lb. PRODUCTION FRO:r.! DOJ.m37IC li.ATERIALS :!..764 1,674 1,489 ·366 341 329 2,130 2,015 1,818 1,724 2,080 2,367 745 977 836 2,469 3,056 3,203 277 259 198 4,876 5,330 5,219 248 239 211 1,386 1,313 1,132 ·7 .. 10 6 77 153 ]} 108 762 1,234 1,246 2,480 2,949 2,703 732 454 .3 9 735 463. 500 . 25' 33 36 10,839 "'9,434. 8,770 "2,151 2,156 . *1, 726 929: 99J 917 13,794 13,980 *12,567 1,581 . "1,533 L05ll. 2,151 2,156 *1,726 9,967 10,258 *9,769 974 1·,183 1-,173 . 8;992. ·' .9,075· •·9 ,596 Pounds Pounds Pormds Civilian disapp~arance per pe~on (fat content), : Food • ; •• , -;, •.•. •.•• ; •• ! •••••• • ...... •••••••• : 46 45 43 42 40 38 Nonfood ···············································--~2~4~-----w2~6 ______-i2w4~-----;2~5 ______2~4T------2~4~--- To~al ..••••• ~. •• •••• , ...... ~ ....• , ...••• : 10 71 67 68 64 62 Production frcm domestic material~,. year be&innin~ October , Average: . 1943 . I Item·. : 1937-41, ..... J . eMil. lb •. Mil •.. -lb .• M;l.l, lb. Mil. lb. Mil." lb". ~in. ·lb." ... -Fo'l:l. rats ..and oils · · " . . ,--- - __,..,._ ------.- . ------. Butterc CrebJD.erY ~~ •••••••••· •• :.~ •••••. ·•••••••••••••••••• : 1,805 1,?'3-5• ,.1.511 1,420 - Far.m ...... , 415 · 347 .;3;;;3i-i2~--""~""-;~ri3ri5~--,-"'.r<,.,----'---- Toto.l ~actual we1gh_t) ...... ' 2.220·_....::.2.!.,0:.7:..:2:_._.:;1.!.,8:.4:.:~:_._.::1.!.'.:..75:.5:_._.:.1.!.,4..:.5::..:0:..-. ____ to.rd and rendered pork fats · Fec.erall~, \n~pected ...... , 1,368. 1,944 .. 2,541 1,375 Ot!ler •••••• ~ ...... _..•.••.....•.•.• '-?~7-;5-i3·---.,-EB-i9-io---.,.....;8~8-io---,.~s~3~1---,.;;;n--,------Total ...... ~; ... ~ .. ; ... ; .. ·... o; ...... : 2,121 :1,834 3,.121· 2,206, . ~ ••1~0 ~· Edi '.lla to.llow, e.!ible animal st!larine ,oleo stock and oil --"""'327!2"25·.· --...:=..:.,s27;6 Table 9 c- Price received by far'mors and prioes !it tenni!!&l narkets for specified oil-bearing materials and oiL'11eals, August 1944 s.nd 1945, June-August 194G -----·--~ 1 : 1946 . =Auc;ust =August ,--:--:--- Item . Unit : 1944 : 1945 : June ~ July :August : : : : "'---- a.Dolla.rs DollarsDOTfe.r"s Dollar:S :Oollars Ba.bassu kernels, f.o.b. Maranhao, Brazil •••••••••••.••• :l.:etric ton: 126.50 126.50 143 .oo 143.00 Castor be~ms, Brazilian, c,i.i'. : first port of a.rri val, U. S. • • .: Long ton :J:/75 .oo ya2. tiO lHl.OO 118. co 118 .oo . Copra,.,. Philippine, c.i.f. Pacific Coast ••••••••••.••••.•• :Short ton --- 2/109.50 109.50 109.6- Cottonseed, United States averaGe: " " 53.20 52.50- 51,50 60o00 59.10 flaxseed, iJo. 1, Minneapolis •••• : Bushel 3.10 3.10 3.35 3.79 3.95 Flaxseed, United States average " 2.89 2.89 3.10 3.43 3.63 Peanuts, No. l shelled, Spanish, : · Southeastern shippin;; points ••• :100 pounds: 14.25 14.25 14.75 14.75 14.25 :peanuts, United States avernc;e •• : 17 " 7.64 8.19 8.83 8.97 8.88 Soybeans, No. 2 Ye 11 ow, Chicac:;o Bus he 1 1.94 2~18 ~oybeans, United States average • .• " 1.90 2.12 2.17 2.31 2.35 O~_lseed Heals y ~ r:0pra meal, Los Ant,;eles 4/ ...... ::Short ton 50.00 59.50 G0.50 59.80 ~bttonseed meal, 41 percent pro .