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Initiation.Indd RESOURCES Horizon Oil Ltd (HZN $0.115) Buy Analyst Date Price Target Horizon Oil Ltd Year End 30 June Share Price 0.115 A$/sh Jon Bishop 1st March 2018 $0.20/sh Price Target 0.20 A$/sh Valuation 0.19 A$/sh Initiation of Coverage Shares on issue 1602 m, diluted Market Capitalisation 150 A$m Investment case Enterprise Value 271 A$m Debt 162 A$m HZN is one of few pure oil leveraged producers on the ASX and the only pure Cash 41 A$m Brent proxy; Largest Shareholder IMC - 31.0% The Company produces ~ 4,500bopd net (100% oil) from its NZ and China Production F/Cast 2017a 2018f 2019f offshore developments; Maari (NZ) 0.3 0.5 0.7 Wei (China) 0.8 0.9 0.6 Flowing bbl metric of A$53,000/bbl (100% oil) vs peer av. of A$111,000/boe; Western Foreland (PNG) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total Attrib (mmboe) 1.4 1.7 1.7 Plus US$30/bbl operating margin at US$65/bbl Brent; Forecast EBITDA of US$50m FY’18 rising to +US$60m/yr in FY’19-20; Assumptions 2017a 2018f 2019f Avg Brent Oil Price (US$/bbl) 49 65 68 EV:EBITDA FY’18 of 4.3x and FY’19 of 2.3x vs peer group average of 12.8x and AUDUSD 0.77 0.78 0.78 6.1x; Current 2P Reserves of 10.6mmbbls (100% oil) with a further ~3mmbbls to be Key Financials 2017a 2018f 2019f booked with sanction of Wei 12-8E this CY and first production 2019; Revenue (US$m) 69 88 99 EBITDA (US$m) 44 50 59 Current 2C Contingent Resources of 153.2mmbboe (15% condensate); NPAT (US$m) 0 -13 10 Cashflow (US$m) 31 37 27 EV:2P+2C of A$1.60/boe vs a peer group average of A$8.70/boe; CFPS (Ac) 3 3 2 Significant upside via its large PNG 150mmbboe wet gas portfolio: P/CFPS (x) 1.5 3.6 4.9 yyan outstanding agreement for a US$130m payment at FID for proposed LNG EPS (Ac) 0 -1 1 development; EPS growth (%) na na na yytangible M&A in PNG regarding the LNG developments suggests HZN’s PER (x) na na 12.7 interests are material enough to attract corporate interest; EV:EBITDA (x) 6.1 5.4 4.6 EV:EBIT (x) 16.3 21.4 9.5 Systematically de-leveraging its Balance Sheet; currently US$94m net Debt vs a peak of over US$150m in 2015; DPS (Ac) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Dividend Yield (%) 0% 0% 0% HZN offers significant oil price leverage with firming oil prices; ND:Net Debt+Equity (%) 26% 41% 24% The current price trades at a ~40% discount to our $0.19/sh Valuation; Interest Cover (x) 1.8 2.8 4.0 We initiate coverage with a Buy and set a $0.20/sh Price Target reflecting a number of tangible organic and in-organic catalysts. Share Price Chart $0.12 6000 5000 $0.09 4000 3000 $0.06 2000 VOL '000 Share Price ($) 1000 $0.03 0 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Disclaimer Euroz Securities declares that it has been engaged by Horizon Oil Limited to provide corpo- rate advice. Euroz Securities will receive fees for providing this advice. Euroz Securities Limited All information and advice is confidential and for the private information of the person to whom it is provided and is provided without any responsibility or liability on any account whatsoever on the part of Euroz Securities Limited or any member or employee thereof. Refer to full disclaimer at the end of this document. RESOURCES Horizon Oil Ltd (HZN $0.115) Buy Key Variables Our Share Price Sensitivity Val/ Sh Brent Oil Vol '000 HZN 12 month price history A$/sh 0.19 -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 16000 $0.30 14000 15% $0.159 $0.168 $0.177 $0.187 $0.198 $0.207 $0.217 $0.225 $0.233 $0.25 12000 $0.20 10% $0.156 $0.165 $0.174 $0.184 $0.194 $0.204 $0.214 $0.222 $0.231 10000 D 5% $0.153 $0.161 $0.171 $0.181 $0.191 $0.201 $0.211 $0.219 $0.227 8000 $0.15 D S S 6000 U $0.10 U 0% $0.149 $0.158 $0.167 $0.177 $0.187 $0.197 $0.207 $0.216 $0.224 / 4000 / D D $0.05 -5% $0.145 $0.153 $0.163 $0.173 $0.183 $0.193 $0.203 $0.212 $0.220 2000 U U A 0 $0.00 A -10% $0.140 $0.149 $0.158 $0.168 $0.179 $0.189 $0.199 $0.207 $0.216 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 -15% $0.135 $0.144 $0.153 $0.163 $0.174 $0.184 $0.194 $0.203 $0.211 Our Market Sensitivity Val/ Sh US$ Gas - PNG Valuation - $0.19/sh Price Target - $0.20/sh 0.19 -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 15% $0.198 $0.198 $0.198 $0.198 $0.198 $0.198 $0.198 $0.198 $0.198 Bull Scenario - $0.25/sh 10% $0.194 $0.194 $0.194 $0.194 $0.194 $0.194 $0.194 $0.194 $0.194 Oil price continue to strengthen, rising at 20% 5% $0.191 $0.191 $0.191 $0.191 $0.191 $0.191 $0.191 $0.191 $0.191 above our assumptions. Whilst M&A and/or or- ganic development momentum crystallises value D D 0% $0.187 $0.187 $0.187 $0.187 $0.187 $0.187 $0.187 $0.187 $0.187 S S for the PNG portfolio. U U -5% $0.183 $0.183 $0.183 $0.183 $0.183 $0.183 $0.183 $0.183 $0.183 / / D D -10% $0.179 $0.179 $0.179 $0.179 $0.179 $0.179 $0.179 $0.179 $0.179 Base Scenario - $0.20/sh U U A A -15% $0.174 $0.174 $0.174 $0.174 $0.174 $0.174 $0.174 $0.174 $0.174 Oil price rise in line with our assumptions. M&A and/or organic development momentum crystal- lises value for the PNG portfolio. Euroz Forecast FY’18 FY’19 FY’20 FY’21 FY’22 FY’23 Brent Oil $59 $68 $75 $75 $75 $75 Bear Scenario - $0.08/sh US$ Gas - PNG $4.50 $4.50 $4.50 $4.50 $4.50 $4.50 Oil prices fall 20%. AUD/USD $0.78 $0.78 $0.78 $0.78 $0.78 $0.78 Company Summary boepd Horizon Oil Ltd (HZN) is an oil & gas exploration, 5000 HZN Total Production (boepd) development and production company. HZN 4500 focusses on three main projects, producing the Maari field offshore New Zealand and Chinese 4000 Beibu Gulf. The production asset underwrite the 3500 current share price whilst PNG - on account of 3000 its size and increasingly strategic value - offers 2500 substantial blue sky potential. 2000 Liquids rich 2P/2C reserves are 10.64 and 153.18 1500 mmboe. Dec H production of 3374 boepd is anticipated to rise to 5316boepd for FY’19. 1000 Cash of $41m and $154m debt as at Dec 31, 2017. 500 0 Disclaimer FY'16a FY'17a FY'18 FY'19 FY'20 FY'21 FY'22 FY'23 The projections and information above is based on the set assumptions outlined. Due care and attention has been used in the preparation of this information. However actual results may vary from forecasts and any variation may be materially positive or negative. Forecasts by their very nature, are subject to uncertainty and con- tingencies, many of which are outside the control of Euroz. Euroz Securities Limited All information and advice is confidential and for the private information of the person to whom it is provided and is provided without any responsibility or liability on any account whatsoever on the part of Euroz Securities Limited or any member or employee thereof. Refer to full disclaimer at the end of this document. 2 RESOURCES Horizon Oil Ltd (HZN $0.115) Buy Market Statistics Year End 30 June Profit and Loss (A$m) 2017a 2018f 2019f 2020f Share Price $0.115 A$/sh Directors Oil Equivalent Sales 69 43 98 97 Issued Capital J Humphrey Chair Hedging Revenue 17 44 - - FP Ord 1,302.0 m B Emmett CEO Deferred Revenue - - - - Interest Revenue - 1 1 2 Op @ 6cps 301.5 m G Bittar NE Dir Other Revenue 0 - - - Share Rights 141.0 m S Birkensleigh NE Dir TOTAL REVENUE 69 88 99 100 Total Dil. FPOrd 1,602.0 m G de Nys NE Dir M Sheridan CFO Operating Costs 18 30 31 29 Market Capitalisation $150 m Dep/Amort 26 26 28 27 Enterprise Value $271 m Shareholders O/H + New Bus Dev 7 7 8 8 Debt $(162) m IMC 31.0% W/O & Provisions 1 11 3 3 EBITDA 44 50 59 60 Cash $41 m Colonial 7.8% EBIT 17 13 28 30 Interest Expense 13 11 6 4 NPBT 4 2 23 29 Tax 4 5 6 8 Asset Valuation A$m A$/sh NZ royalty 1 5 6 7 NZ - Maari 111 0.07 Minorities - - - - China - Wei 165 0.10 NET PROFIT (1) (7) 10 14 China - WZ 12-8E undev. - nom. risked 56 0.03 Net Abnormal Gain/(Loss) (1) - - - PNG (net 2C - 603Bcf; 19mmbbls) - nom.
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